IMPORTANT BLOG ANNOUNCEMENT

PLEASE CHANGE YOUR BOOKMARKS AND FEEDS TO THE NEW URL, THEYANKEEU.COM. TYU IS IN NO WAY AFFILIATED WITH THE NEW YORK YANKEES OR YANKEES UNIVERSE.
Mar 102010

The news that Nomar Garciaparra retired this morning brought back an old argument that used to rage between Yankees and Red Sox fans: which club’s shortstop was better? In terms of career value, the obvious answer is Jeter, as he continues to play at a high level while Nomar is hanging up his spikes. The more interesting question is, which player was better during the time span from 1997-2004, when Nomar was manning shortstop for the Sox?

In terms of perception, the two players were fairly equal. Over the 8 year span, Jeter made 6 All-Star teams and finished in the top-10 in MVP voting 4 times, while adding one Gold Glove. Meanwhile, Nomar made 5 All-Star teams but finished in the top-10 in MVP voting 5 times. From what I recall, the perception was that Nomar was a slightly flashier offensive player, but that Jeter was close in that regard and was more dependable in the clutch and a greater winner.

In terms of statistics, however, Nomar was almost certainly the better player over the period, and likely would have been recognized as such if the current statistical revolution had occurred 5-10 years earlier. Let’s take a look at the WAR numbers on both players, courtesy of baseballprojection.com:

Derek Jeter:

Nomar Garciaparra:

Jeter was worth exactly 41 wins above replacement from 1997 through 2004. Nomar was worth 41.5 wins over the span, despite playing just 21 games in 2001 and 81 games in 2004 due to injury. That means that when he was on the field, Nomar provided more value than Jeter did, with Derek’s poor defense towards the end of the period really hurting his overall WAR. However, the first part of that sentence is the real caveat here. If Nomar Garciaparra had Derek’s durability, he likely would be remembered as the better player. However, his inability to stay healthy torpedoed that legacy, and renders the comparison moot. In the end, Nomar’s story is one that engenders a discussion of “what could have been.”

What do you think about the Jeter-Nomar debate?

Mar 042010

According to “two executives from competing teams” that spoke to Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman (props to RAB), Derek Jeter could seek a six-year contract from the Yankees once he enters free agency at the end of the year. One executive noted, in reference to Jeter’s agent, Casey Close, and the six-year proposal, “[He] is a good agent. You don’t get it if you don’t ask.” Of course, this is the nature of negotiations. Jeter could seek a six-year deal, however, I think he and his agent, being the smart guy that he is, know the Yankees would likely prefer to do a shorter deal, say, in the four-year range. So, in reality, asking for a six-year deal is a bargaining tactic – aim high first – to receive a five or four-year offer. It’s like when a charitable group calls you and initially asks for $1,000 (assuming you haven’t hung up). As you continue to say no to them, they ultimately end up settling on a much more reasonable figure like $25.

That’s the nature of the game. If Jeter actually wanted a six-year deal, we would probably hear reports about him wanting a seven or eight-year deal instead. Again, it cannot hurt to aim high out the gate, as long as you think realistically in terms of what you expect to actually receive (unlike Johnny Damon over the winter). In the end, I can see Jeter receiving a four or possibly even a five-year offer, but six won’t happen. I think Jeter knows that, too.

Photo by Reuters

Mar 042010

Yesterday, Joe Girardi discussed a few things with Mike Francesa (H/T to Steve for this). I’ll briefly run through the points General Joe made and my reactions to them:

1. Nick Johnson will bat second.
This is something with which I whole-heartedly agree (and Moshe does, too). Johnson at the top of the order will give Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez yet another man to drive in. While Johnson may not be the fleetest of foot out there, the important thing is being on base. In fact, in 2009, Johnson scored 11 times from second base when a single was hit. In the same situation, Curtis Granderson scored five times. I wouldn’t worry too much about Johnson “clogging the bases”.

2. Curtis Granderson is going to play center field.
Though I ran the numbers, way back on my second day at TYU, and they came out saying Granderson in left and Gardner in center would be better numerically, I don’t have a problem with this. If Granderson really has issues defensively, he can be moved. No matter what position he’s at, Granderson’s bat will play, and he’s still likely to be a good defender in center. Regardless, Gardner-Granderson-Swisher will be fine offensively and will be one of the best defensively.

3. Cano will hit fifth to avoid “stacking lefties” (5-9: Cano, Posada, Granderson, Swisher, Gardner).
I’m rather surprised by this, actually. I thought for sure Jorge would’ve been the five place hitter. Frankly, though, it doesn’t matter. The reality is that the 5-8 guys listed above could all bat at any of those spots (and some of them could bat higher) and this “problem” just speaks to how strong and “circular” the Yankee lineup is. Cano’s power should play well in the five spot and having a lot of guys on in front of him–from Jeter through A-Rod–should help correct his problems with runners on.

4. Girardi believes Cano’s struggles w/RISP are sample size issues.
I agree. Cano’s eventually going to hit like he normally does when there are runners in scoring position. Perhaps “forcing” the issue by putting him higher in the order will correct this issue. As long as Robbie puts up numbers like he did in ‘05-’07 and ‘09, I’ll be happy.

5. Posada will catch 100-120 games.
He caught 111 games last season, and that was with a hamstring issue, so he could do that again this year. At his age, though, catching that many games may be wishful thinking. If it happens, though, the Yankees are in great, great shape. An additional note, Girardi added that Johnson will primarily DH (see below) and on days that Posada sits, Johnson will still DH. This is clearly aimed at keeping Jorge healthy.

6. Nick Johnson will play 1B 2-3 times a month, spelling Tex, who will DH on those days.
This, too, surprises me. While it’s nice to give Tex a little break, I’m not sure if it’s necessary. Johnson’s generally been a strong fielder, though, so it can’t hurt–unless, of course, Nick gets hurt.

7. Granderson plays every day.
Yes. 100% yes. The only way Curtis can work through his problems against left handers is to face them as much as possible and get as many reps as he can. Obviously, if there isn’t progress by May or June, it’s time to scrap that plan. I have faith, though, in Granderson and Kevin Long to fix the problem and make Curtis even better than he is.

Mar 032010

Kevin Kernan of the NY Post has an interesting article out in which he notes that Yankees icon, Derek Jeter, has expressed an interest in owning a baseball team one day. Of course, as soon as one hears this information, one wonders if Jeter could become a part-owner of the Yankees after he retires. Interestingly though, Ben Kabak of River Ave Blues ponders whether or not the Yankees could actually include an ownership share in his next contract. To be honest, I think it’s a far-fetched idea, but if Jeter truly intends on expanding his resume beyond the confines of the player title, hey, maybe it could happen. Either way, Ben’s stuff is always worth a read, so check it out.

Photo by Reuters

Feb 252010

Derek Jeter’s UZR at shortstop last season was 6.6 runs above average. Nick Swisher’s UZR in right field last season was -0.7 runs below average. Johnny Damon’s UZR in left field last season was -9.2 runs below average. From my own experiences, many baseball fans often toss around FanGraphs’ Ultimate Zone Ratings without much context or detail, citing UZR similarly to the way in which I have done just prior to this sentence, as if the numbers provide all that is needed in order to fully understand a player’s defensive impact on a given season. However, for those who rely upon FanGraphs for their UZR figures (most of us, it seems), it is very important to remember that each player’s rating can be broken down further into three distinct parts.

For outfielders, the three-pronged rating is the final sum of a player’s range runs (RngR), error runs (ErrR), and arm runs (ARM), whereas for infielders, a player’s UZR is based on on range runs and error runs, however, arm runs are actually replaced by double play runs (DPR). Each of the three values, together, amount to a respective Ultimate Zone Rating. The problem, though, is that sometimes, ratings are cited at large, with writers employing FanGraphs’ UZR system and citing an UZR without added delineation that might provide greater insights as to why a player’s rating is as high, low, or average as it is. In reality, an UZR can occasionally be the product of just one of the three elements which are used to comprise it, making matters more than confusing when evaluating a player’s overall defensive value in a given year. For instance, an extremely high ErrR can skew an infielder’s UZR, masking tangible range issues. However, if the error score is not expounded upon, defensive weaknesses may go unnoticed.

This is an issue I often deal with when discussing a player’s Ultimate Zone Rating. In order to address it, I tend to rehash much of what I said above, but in an abbreviated form. For practical purposes – and for some nerdish fun – I thought perhaps I could try something different, and hopefully more interesting, to help readers understand what an UZR really “means” when it is attached to a player. Hence, the UZR Chart is born (I guess DiamondView inspired me). I have opted to represent the three defensive components of a player’s UZR using a simple bar chart. The bar chart seemed like a good idea because it allows for negative numbers and creates a rather straightforward visual comparison. Also, it allows us to visually perceive the way in which a player’s UZR, which I have also decided to include in each UZR Chart, can sometimes be heavily determined by one of the three defensive elements – RngR, ErrR, ARM/DP – discussed. Basically, via chart, we can eyeball a high or low UZR score relative to a high or low RngR, etc.

An example of this is the figure to the right, which is an UZR Chart documenting the defensive abilities of Houston Astros outfielder, Hunter Pence, in 2009. I chose to chart Pence, a non-Yankee, as the first illustration, mainly because of his interesting UZR. Last season, Pence’s Ultimate Zone Rating was +5.5 runs—an above average defensive mark (roughly half a win). At first glance of this rating, one might assume that Pence’s defense was strong in the outfield and that he did a combination of positive things, defensively, to earn such a score. However, it was Pence’s strong arm score of +5.9 runs that catapulted his UZR into the “above average” territory, while he was merely average with regards to range runs (-0.3) and error runs (-0.2). His UZR Chart makes this particularly clear as the ARM bar (green) and the UZR bar (red) are nearly identical. And so is the purpose of the UZR Chart, to detail what an UZR really means via an easy visual.

With that said – hopefully the explanation provided was clear (or clear enough, at least) – here’s another UZR Chart, though this one features a simple trend analysis of Derek Jeter’s Ultimate Zone Rating over the last five years.

As you can see from the chart, Jeter’s abysmal range (blue bars) from 2005 to 2007 essentially dictated his UZR. Outside of his ErrR in 2005, Jeter did not do anything particularly well in the field, either, as he was generally average in double play runs and error runs and terrible range-wise. His averageness did little to curb the damage brought onto his final rating by his range run totals. Whereas Hunter Pence has his great arm to increase his overall value, Jeter had nothing, really. Of course, in 2008, there is a noticeable change in Jeter’s defensive value, which is the direct result of a new training regimen employed by Jeter to address his range problems. His range improved tremendously – the blue bar ascends – and, thanks to a positive error runs total of 4.5, Jeter’s -0.5 UZR was his first average mark in years. The gains continued into 2009, as Jeter was worth 6.6 range runs. The area that was once a huge weakness is now a strength.

From now on, unless you guys see a mistake in this “method” that I am not seeing (comment away), when discussing and citing UZR totals from FanGraphs, I’ll probably offer an UZR Chart as well. It seems to be useful in pointing out the intricacies of the ratings so as to enhance understandings of a player’s defensive contributions (in a single year, or over time), as specific weaknesses – Derek Jeter’s range – or strengths – Hunter Pence’s arm – that may dilute or inflate an Ultimate Zone Rating are made apparent through such simple illustrations. By looking at a chart, it is much easier to decipher why an UZR score “is,” essentially. Plus, they’re fun to look at, too, which is an added bonus.

Feb 252010

WFAN’s Sweeney Murti has a new blog piece up, one where he discusses Derek’s contract situation and asks people to check some of their assumptions on the aging core 4 players, specifically concerning Mr Derek Sanderson Jeter. He writes:

There’s another player, who at age 33, hit .336 with a .415 on-base, 20 home runs, 30 stolen bases. He tied his career-low for a full season by committing only 5 errors and won a well-deserved Gold Glove. It was probably one of the three or four best seasons of his career.

The next year Roberto Alomar’s OPS dropped nearly 250 points. Over the next three years he totaled 20 home runs and 28 stolen bases, and 24 errors, his lightning quick hands and feet no longer able to play at an All-Star level.

The scary part is this—go to Alomar’s page on baseball-reference.com and scroll to the bottom. Every player has a list of the ten closest players he compares to statistically for his career. The number one guy on Alomar’s list, the player he most closely resembles statistically…is Derek Jeter.

Don’t get me wrong…this is not me telling you that Jeter is going to hit .264 this year and fall off the map. I think Jeter has shown himself to be very conscious of what his body needs at this stage of his career and the work it takes to maintain this level of play. But when the skills erode (especially bat speed), they might go quickly.

I couldn’t agree more with Sweeney’s take. Coming off Alomar’s 2001 season, anyone who would have projected a big drop would have been called crazy, yet that’s precisely what happened. Most projection systems (CHONE/PECOTA/ZiPS) have Derek poised to have a good, if unspectacular season. It’s important to remember that while most projection systems take age into account, they are still an average of all potential factors. Recent seasons, age, player profile, etc. But when some players lose it, there’s nothing ‘averaged out’ about it. Their bat slows down, and they can no longer get around on the fastball. So they adjust and start sitting on breaking pitches. Pitchers notice this, adjust accordingly, and give the player a steady diet of nothing that he can handle. They challenge him with hard strikes in the zone (that he has to swing at) and the breaking stuff gets put in places where the batter can’t do much with it. Next thing you know, he’s having an awful season and most fans can’t figure out why.

This stuff goes on all the time in Baseball. Not just due to age, but sometimes a player will be hiding an injury which can affect his swing. With Pitch FX data, you can find a batter’s recent cold spot and attack it mercilessly (side note-That’s why many people over apply and misuse SSS. Advance scouting is all about gathering info based on small samples). Once opposing pitchers identify a weakness, they will pound you on it until you make them pay. Baseball is a game of constant adjustments. Once a player loses the ability to counter what pitchers are trying to do to him, his options dwindle and his career is coming to a close. That’s why Brian Cashman is smart not to sign Derek. An Alomar-style drop off this year would be bad enough on it’s own, having him signed for another 4-5 years after this at huge money would be brutal.

Another important note. In recent years, we have seen players doing amazing things at advanced ages, and have come to be more dismissive of the affects of age. We found out later that much of those accomplishments were chemically induced. We all assume Derek is one of the ‘clean’ players. If he is, then we should expect him to age the way players aged when I was a kid in the 70’s and 80’s. Back then, 35 was an age that fans treated with great caution and trepidation. Some defied the odds, but most fell by the wayside and were one step closer to their next game being at Old Timer’s Day. We would be wise to take an equally cautious approach with Derek this season.

Feb 242010

Today in Tampa, Derek Jeter met with the media to discuss the new year and, of course, his looming free agency was the dominant topic of conversation. As was expected, Jeter brushed the issue off as a possible distraction and affirmed his desire to be a Yankee for the duration of his already impressive career. “This is the only organization I’ve ever wanted to play for,” Jeter said. “That’s still true today. I was a Yankees fan growing up, and this is where I want to be. I’ve never envisioned myself playing anywhere else, and hopefully I don’t have to.” He then added, “I’ve never gone into a season focused on the next season. My approach since day one is to do whatever you can to help the team win in that particular year. I’m not thinking about what’s going to happen next season.”

Jeter also stated that his agent, Casey Close, phoned the Yankees over the offseason in order to gauge their interest in providing the future Hall of Famer with a new deal, however, Close was told by the front office that the organization intends on waiting until the end of the season to offer Jeter a proposal. When asked about the team’s contract policy, Jeter responded with, “I don’t have a problem with it. That’s the new policy that they have. They have every right to do that. I signed a long deal, I’m still under contract with that deal, and they have the right to do whatever they want.”

As it stands, Jeter shouldn’t be worried about his situation at all, really. You would be hard-pressed to find another soon-to-be free agent with as much presumed job security as the Yankees’ 35-year old shortstop. The only question is how much money and how many years will the beloved player receive upon re-signing. That, I’m not sure.

Photo by the AP

Feb 192010

In his post yesterday about the potential batting order for 2010, Steve posted an image of a lineup card for what appears to be an All-Time Yankee team. Obviously, that team is just stacked. So stacked, in fact, that it got me thinking–what would my all time Yankee batting look like and how many runs could they score in a 162 game season?

For the first part, my team would look just like Steve’s, except I’d have Alex Rodriguez starting at third; don’t worry Nettles fans, he’d be on my bench. The rest of the bench would be rounded out by Jorge Posada (sorry, Thurman), Bernie Williams, and Don Mattingly. But, what we’re really concerned about here is the starting lineup and just how prolific it would be on offense.

Using the ever awesome Lineup Analysis tool from Baseball Musings, we can estimate how many runs this team would score by punching in each player’s OBP and SLG. Since this is an all-Yankee team, I’ll be using their Yankee numbers only.

The average lineup containing these players would score 7.385 runs per game. In a 162 game season, that means 1,197 runs. The modern record for runs scored in a season was set by the 1931 Yankees, who scored 1,067. This team would beat that tally by 130 runs. That’s disgusting. Words cannot describe the awesomeness of this lineup.

The best projected lineup would be Ruth/Gehrig/Lazzeri/DiMaggio/Mantle/Jackson/Rodriguez/Berra/Jeter, which would score 7.499 per game (1,215 per 162).

The worst projected lineup was Berra/Lazzeri/Rodriguez/Jeter/Jackson/Mantle/Gehrig/Ruth/DiMaggio and even that scored 7.004 runs per game (1,135). So even the “worst” lineup consisting of these nine guys would break the runs scored record.

This gargantuan lineup is a testament to one thing: the Yankees have had some incredible players over the years. As I said previously, we as Yankee fans have been blessed to have seen such great players don the uniform of our favorite team.

If there is one thing to sum up this lineup, it would be this: Total Domination.

Feb 182010

Yesterday, Moshe posted 25 questions/issues going into Spring Training. Tackling them one-by-one in full posts would take way too long, so I’m going to give some quick hit answers to each one.

1. Jorge’s decline: Steve’s got legit concerns about Jorge declining, and if there’s anyone on the Yankees who’s going to decline, it’s likely to be Jorge. The average projection for Jorge doesn’t seem too ominous, but you never know with older catchers. My guess? Jorge doesn’t fall off a cliff, but he’s not as productive with the bat as he was last year.

2. The back up catcher: barring injury, I think this job is Cervelli’s to lose. His bat is iffy, but it’s okay for a back up catcher and his defense is solid.

3. The Jesus and 2010/catching: If we see El Carpentiero at all in ‘10, it’ll likely be as a September call up. As for whether he can handle catching, I’m cautiously optimistic. Regardless, that bat is downright dreamy and I want it sticking around in the Yankee organization for years to come.

4. Nick Johnson: Like with Hideki Matsui in ‘09, keeping Johnson off the field could be the key to keeping him healthy. If he does stay healthy, I think he could at the very least come close to matching Hideki/Johnny Damon, he’ll just do it in different ways. His power should bounce back by being in YSIII and I’d expect his HR/FB anomaly from 2009 to correct itself as well.

5. Cano’s defense: I think he’ll stay where he is, which is frustrating ’cause he’s brilliant out there at times.

6. Jeter’s contract situation as a potential distraction: I don’t think it will be an issue until after the ASB.

7. A-Rod’s defense: I think we’ll see the second half A-Rod on defense–still below average with the range (but what an arm!), but not as bad as he was immediately after returning.

8. Utility role: I say Pena, unless Russo really wows everyone in ST.

9. Which Swish: It may not be an exact copy, but I’d put good money on the ‘10 Swisher looking a lot like the ‘09 Swisher.

10. Grandy vs. lefties: Hopefully, Kevin Long can work some magic. And, yes, moving to YSIII will definitely help C-Grand.

11. Gardner as an everyday player: I’m cautiously optimistic for Gardner, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on this issue.

12. Randy Winn’s possible decline: 2009 looks like one of two outliers in the last 8 seasons, 2006 was the other. If he can bounce back, great. If not, it’s not a huge sunken cost and he’s replaceable.

13. Gardy or Grandy in CF: I’ll be happy either way, but the numbers point to Gardner in CF.

14. Hoffmann or Thames: I think they’ll go with Hoffmann, just to see what he’s got unless Thames absolutely destroys the Grapefruit League.

15. October hangover for SPs: It’s possible, but they’re veterans who know how to manage their bodies. Hopefully, there are no ill effects.

16. Javy as unclutch: I see good things for Javy this time around.

17. A.J.’s health: Burnett will pitch at least 185 innings in 2010.

18. 5th starter: I’ve written more than once about this. Joba it shall be.

19. BP or SWB: See above.

20. Damaso: He won’t be as lights out in the playoffs, but he’ll be his usual lefty destroying self since he’ll finally be healthy for a full year.

21. Second lefty: I don’t think a second lefty is a must, but I think General Joe likes the idea of having two lefties, so I think they’ll at least start off the year w/2 LHRPs.

22. If not, who gets the job: No thinking, gut reaction, Melancon.

23. Mo and…aging…: I’ll defer to Chris Turk for the answer.

24. Girardi’s lack of job security: The only way it becomes an issue is if Joe really screws up this year, which won’t happen.

25. Room in the budget if needed: They’ll find it.

So, there you have it: 25 quick answers to 25 complex questions. Before you know it, it’ll be November and we’ll be looking back on these (hopefully after a 28th championship) issues and their outcomes. Here’s to hoping they all turn out the way we want them to.

Feb 162010

We authors here at TYU all seem to bring something different to the proverbial table. Moshe grinds out meaningful posts that are well developed and thought provoking. E.J. does the prospect thing. Steve likes to touch on the “hot button” issues of Yankee-land. Chris and I delve into a more analytical realm. Of course, we all reach across “genres” and touch on all of these things. Like we who write about them, each of the Yankee hitters brings his own special skills to the plate and the field.

Jorge Posada

Let’s kick it off with the man behind the plate: Jorge Posada. It’s my contention that Jorge is one of the most underrated players of the last twenty years. His offense out of the catcher’s spot has been both consistent and at a high level for 15 years and aside from Mike Piazza, he has been the finest offensive catcher in the game (Joe Mauer will take this title shortly, but Posada’s done it for a long time). Anyway, that’s enough gushing. Jorge’s value, like many Yankees, comes from patience and power. His .277 average is quite average, but his .379 OBP is more than solid and his .480 SLG is good for anyone, let a lone a catcher.

Mark Teixeira

It’s hard to think of something Mark doesn’t do well. He plays solid defense. He’s a good contact hitter (.290 career batting average). He’s patient at the plate (.373 career OBP, 80 walks per 162 games). He’s got great power (.545 SLG, .255 IsoP, 80 XBH per 162). Basically, Tex is arguably the most well-rounded player on the Yankees. Teixeira brings value to the team in a big variety of ways and I speak for all Yankee fans when I say I’m incredibly happy he is on the team.

Robinson Cano

Robbie Cano is a player with incredible talent, and is probably the third best second baseman in baseball–I give Pedroia the edge over Cano because Rogaine’s defense is better–but there are hols in his game. His defense is flashy at times, but awful at others. His lack of on base skills is also a bit frustrating (.033 IsoD, 4.2% BB%, average is around 9%). Cano, however, does two things very well: he hits for average (.306 career BA, 11.7 career K%, league average is about 20%) and hit for power (.480 career SLG, .173 IsoP, league average is about .155). If you’re looking for a patient hitter to work walks, Cano isn’t your guy. However, if you’re looking for a guy who’s gonna make a lot of contact and hit the ball real hard when he does make contact, look no further than Robbie.

Alex Rodriguez

A-Rod is like Tex. He does everything well. He may strike out a bit, 130 per 162, but he still hits for a high average at .302, gets on base at a .390 clip (.401 since joining the Yankees). Alex mashes the ball, with a career .576 SLG and .204 IsoP, with a 162 game average of 79 XBH, and 583 home runs in his career. Alex’s defense has taken a down turn in the last few years, but his offense cannot be overlooked. He’s one of the top hitters in the game and it’s quite clear from where his value comes.

Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter is the more patient, but slightly less powerful, version of Robinson Cano. His defense is so-so (though it was sparkling in ‘09), but his offense, especially relative to his position, is dreamy. A career .317/.388/.459 hitter, the Captain is good for around 200 hits and 70 walks per season. Like Teixeira and Rodriguez–but with lesser power and more contact–Jeter does everything well.

Brett Gardner

In a word: speed. Gardner’s speed is what will give him value to the team in 2010 and beyond. His on-base skills were very good in the minors, but they haven’t been great at the major league level. If he can keep his OBP where he kept it last year–between .340 and .350–then his speed will be incredibly valuable because he’ll be on base enough for his steals to matter. His lack of power, though, makes it seem possible that pitchers will simply challenge Brett and not allow him to reach via the walk.

Curtis Granderson

Curtis’s best feature is his power. His career slugging percentage is .484 and his IsoP is .212. Curtis does have a bit of a hole in his swing–149 strikeouts per 162–but he walks at a decent clip: .344 OBP, 67 BBs/162, 9.5% career BB%. If Curtis’s BABIP can rebound (.321 career, .275 in ‘09), and he continues to hit for power and walk at an average rate, Curtis’s offense will be quite valuable in 2010.

Nick Swisher

Disclaimer: I love Nick Swisher. Anyway, whenever discussing Nick Swisher–or players like him–with casual fans, I lead off with this: if you like players that hit for high batting averages, Nick Swisher is not gonna be a guy you like. Nick is never going to hit .300. What Nick is going to do, however, is still valuable: he walks a lot and he hits for a lot of power. Swisher’s career BA is a lowly .245 but his career on base percentage is .357 and his career slugging percentage is .460. That means an IsoD of .112 and an IsoP of .216; those are excellent marks. Swisher’s value comes from his patience and his power.

Nick Johnson

Last but not least is new-old- friend Nick Johnson. Johnson is like the “lite” version” of Swisher: he hits for more contact, .273 as opposed to Swish’s .245, but he also hits for less power: .447 and an IsoP of .174. However, Johnson’s on base skills are supreme: .402 career OBP, 15.6% walk rate, 0.93 BB/K. Out of the two hole, Johnson’s skill set will be invaluable in 2010. Not only will his hits move Derek Jeter around, but his walks will set up more RBI opportunities for the big boppers behind him.