This is a question I have asked before, and Bill Simmons touched on some relevant answers in a recent mailbag:

We knew something shifted in baseball a few years ago; it’s definitely happening in basketball right now. Whether it transforms the other sports remains to be seen. I do think we could reach a ceiling with performance-related formulas some day soon — if we’re not getting there already — and complicated analysis will shift to less definable quantities like injury recovery and behavior. But that’s a few years away. As I mentioned at the conference, the big challenge for sabermetricians this decade will be learning how to educate a mainstream audience in a relatable and entertaining way. Easier said than done.

There are some quantifiable areas that have yet to be fully explored, with defensive metrics still waiting for technologies such as Hit f/x to help take them to the next, more accurate level. However, there are some elements of the game, particularly offensive production and pitching, where the innovation seems to be about building upon existing ideas and adding a higher degree of accuracy rather than reinventing the wheel.

Outside of defense, where might we see some revolutionary ideas? Simmons mentions behavior and health, and I think health in particular will become a new frontier for statistical analysts, as we try and predict injuries based on workloads, pitch and swing types, and other observable factors. Teams that can find some measure of predictability in terms of player durability will find themselves at a strong advantage when it comes to building an effective, consistent team. Injury projections represent a logical evolution of the “Moneyball” philosophy that encourages teams to exploit market inefficiencies.

Where do you think the sabermetric revolution will take us next?

Last season, with regards to defense, Nick Swisher was worth 0.8 runs below average in right field, according to his Ultimate Zone Rating. This mark would actually surprise many Yankee fans, particularly those who are not defensive metric wonks, as there seemed to be a prevailing perception in such circles that Swisher was an awful outfielder. Statistically speaking though, that was far from the truth a season ago and has never really been true historically. Over the course of his career, from Oakland to Chicago, Swisher has been a consistently average corner outfield defender with shades of above averageness. Despite a few strange routes to fly balls that birthed a sense of a fielding ineptitude, 2009 was not a deviation from that assessment. All in all, he was really a decent outfielder.

With that cleared up, digging a bit deeper into Swisher’s UZR, so as to better understand the number’s meaning, I turn to a Swisher UZR Chart – you can read my writeup on UZR Charts here – that illustrates the three components of FanGraphs’ Ultimate Zone Ratings (for outfielders), range runs (RngR), arm runs (ARM), and error runs (ErrR).

As you can see from the chart, in 2009, Swisher’s biggest strength was his range (blue bar), at 4.3 runs above average, the fifth best rating amongst right fielders in either league, yet it was entirely negated by his foremost flaw, his arm (green bar). Swisher’s arm value, pegged at 4.6 runs below average – almost half a win – was the worst mark in the American League and the third worst in baseball (only Brad Hawpe and Andre Ethier were worse). He and Johnny Damon, who was 4.2 runs below average, were very similar in terms of arm awfulness (now that’s saying something). Swisher’s UZR (red bar) of -0.8 is, essentially, a measure of conflict between range runs and arm runs.

From what we saw last season, earlier in the year, Swisher often threw balls in recklessly, which resulted in errant overthrows. His arm strength seemed average, with accuracy being the main issue. He and the Yankees recognized the problem, and worked to resolve it in the latter half of the season. Though I am not privy to any month-by-month UZR figures – I don’t know if those exist, actually – speaking subjectively, Swisher’s throwing noticeably improved as the year wore on. Hopefully the improvements made will carry over into the upcoming regular season. If they do, then Swisher has a chance to be referred to as one of the best right fielders in the game (this notion is based not only on last year’s UZR data, but on the previous years, as well). It might sound like a stretch, but it is possible (he’s close).

His range is definitely there, and the pendulum doesn’t swing very far in either direction, good or bad, with regards to error runs (yellow bar), so, correcting the arm runs issue will be his biggest defensive challenge in 2010.

Note – Swisher’s UZR on FanGraphs actually reads as -0.7, however, when you add his RngR, ARM, and ErrR, you get -0.8. I figured it was just a rounding issue, but to preclude confusion, I discuss it as -0.8, not -0.7. I only do this because it is but a fraction of a run.

Photo by Reuters

Over the weekend, Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record compared Yankees second baseman, Robinson Cano, to Boston’s Dustin Pedroia. At one point in the text, Klapisch discusses the two in terms of fielding ability, and concludes that Cano is actually a better second baseman than Pedroia. “In this regard,” he writes, “Pedroia doesn’t come close to Cano – he can’t duplicate his rival’s range to his right and that signature ability to throw to first base while moving in the opposite direction.” However, it seems that Ultimate Zone Rating disagrees with Klapisch.

According to FanGraphs, which Klapisch later uses to discuss offense yet did not use to justify his defensive evaluation (for whatever reason), Robinson Cano’s career UZR is -26.8 and his career UZR per 150 defensive games is -5.4. On the other hand, Dustin Pedroia’s career UZR is +21.7 and his career UZR per 150 defensive games is 7.4. With regards to defense, there is a fairly large gulf, run-wise, between the two, with Pedroia reigning supreme. While I do think that UZR actually underrates Cano – a product, perhaps, of the way in which his “smooth” style of play is perceived, i.e., as not trying hard enough – to say that Pedroia “doesn’t come close to Cano” with a glove is quite a reach. Based on what I have seen, Cano has a better arm and range to his right, but Pedroia, with his speed and instincts, seems to react better and, as a result, can often cover more ground, overall (he was 7.5 range runs above average in 2009, and Cano was 2.5 runs below average). Would most fans agree with that assessment? I think so.

Cano has the potential to improve significantly, and become a better second baseman, but, as of right now, if I were building a defense-first team and were forced to choose between he and Pedroia, I would probably take the latter.

Photo by Reuters

Derek Jeter’s UZR at shortstop last season was 6.6 runs above average. Nick Swisher’s UZR in right field last season was -0.7 runs below average. Johnny Damon’s UZR in left field last season was -9.2 runs below average. From my own experiences, many baseball fans often toss around FanGraphs’ Ultimate Zone Ratings without much context or detail, citing UZR similarly to the way in which I have done just prior to this sentence, as if the numbers provide all that is needed in order to fully understand a player’s defensive impact on a given season. However, for those who rely upon FanGraphs for their UZR figures (most of us, it seems), it is very important to remember that each player’s rating can be broken down further into three distinct parts.

For outfielders, the three-pronged rating is the final sum of a player’s range runs (RngR), error runs (ErrR), and arm runs (ARM), whereas for infielders, a player’s UZR is based on on range runs and error runs, however, arm runs are actually replaced by double play runs (DPR). Each of the three values, together, amount to a respective Ultimate Zone Rating. The problem, though, is that sometimes, ratings are cited at large, with writers employing FanGraphs’ UZR system and citing an UZR without added delineation that might provide greater insights as to why a player’s rating is as high, low, or average as it is. In reality, an UZR can occasionally be the product of just one of the three elements which are used to comprise it, making matters more than confusing when evaluating a player’s overall defensive value in a given year. For instance, an extremely high ErrR can skew an infielder’s UZR, masking tangible range issues. However, if the error score is not expounded upon, defensive weaknesses may go unnoticed.

This is an issue I often deal with when discussing a player’s Ultimate Zone Rating. In order to address it, I tend to rehash much of what I said above, but in an abbreviated form. For practical purposes – and for some nerdish fun – I thought perhaps I could try something different, and hopefully more interesting, to help readers understand what an UZR really “means” when it is attached to a player. Hence, the UZR Chart is born (I guess DiamondView inspired me). I have opted to represent the three defensive components of a player’s UZR using a simple bar chart. The bar chart seemed like a good idea because it allows for negative numbers and creates a rather straightforward visual comparison. Also, it allows us to visually perceive the way in which a player’s UZR, which I have also decided to include in each UZR Chart, can sometimes be heavily determined by one of the three defensive elements – RngR, ErrR, ARM/DP – discussed. Basically, via chart, we can eyeball a high or low UZR score relative to a high or low RngR, etc.

An example of this is the figure to the right, which is an UZR Chart documenting the defensive abilities of Houston Astros outfielder, Hunter Pence, in 2009. I chose to chart Pence, a non-Yankee, as the first illustration, mainly because of his interesting UZR. Last season, Pence’s Ultimate Zone Rating was +5.5 runs—an above average defensive mark (roughly half a win). At first glance of this rating, one might assume that Pence’s defense was strong in the outfield and that he did a combination of positive things, defensively, to earn such a score. However, it was Pence’s strong arm score of +5.9 runs that catapulted his UZR into the “above average” territory, while he was merely average with regards to range runs (-0.3) and error runs (-0.2). His UZR Chart makes this particularly clear as the ARM bar (green) and the UZR bar (red) are nearly identical. And so is the purpose of the UZR Chart, to detail what an UZR really means via an easy visual.

With that said – hopefully the explanation provided was clear (or clear enough, at least) – here’s another UZR Chart, though this one features a simple trend analysis of Derek Jeter’s Ultimate Zone Rating over the last five years.

As you can see from the chart, Jeter’s abysmal range (blue bars) from 2005 to 2007 essentially dictated his UZR. Outside of his ErrR in 2005, Jeter did not do anything particularly well in the field, either, as he was generally average in double play runs and error runs and terrible range-wise. His averageness did little to curb the damage brought onto his final rating by his range run totals. Whereas Hunter Pence has his great arm to increase his overall value, Jeter had nothing, really. Of course, in 2008, there is a noticeable change in Jeter’s defensive value, which is the direct result of a new training regimen employed by Jeter to address his range problems. His range improved tremendously – the blue bar ascends – and, thanks to a positive error runs total of 4.5, Jeter’s -0.5 UZR was his first average mark in years. The gains continued into 2009, as Jeter was worth 6.6 range runs. The area that was once a huge weakness is now a strength.

From now on, unless you guys see a mistake in this “method” that I am not seeing (comment away), when discussing and citing UZR totals from FanGraphs, I’ll probably offer an UZR Chart as well. It seems to be useful in pointing out the intricacies of the ratings so as to enhance understandings of a player’s defensive contributions (in a single year, or over time), as specific weaknesses – Derek Jeter’s range – or strengths – Hunter Pence’s arm – that may dilute or inflate an Ultimate Zone Rating are made apparent through such simple illustrations. By looking at a chart, it is much easier to decipher why an UZR score “is,” essentially. Plus, they’re fun to look at, too, which is an added bonus.

In 2006-07, Curtis Granderson’s two-year UZR was an impressive 27.9. Since then, though, the results have been less than stellar. In 2008, Granderson went backwards, posting an -8.9 UZR. Last season, he recovered with a 1.6 mark. So, after a pretty scattered defensive showing in Detroit, what do the Yankees expect from Granderson in 2010?

Well, a rebound, of course. Via the NY Post, here’s third base coach Rob Thomson discussing the issue:

“Not giving anybody an excuse, but I’ve heard it from a lot of our outfielders – it’s very tough to see in Comerica Park,” Thomson said. “You see a lot of route problems, read problems – it happens in Comerica, the glare off the seats …

“I’ve watched a lot of tape on him. This kid is a special cat. He’s really athletic, really strong, really fast, a quick-twitch guy. I think a lot of that stuff is overblown. He is a much better defender than people are giving him credit for.”

Perhaps there is some legitimacy to Thomson’s claim regarding Comerica Park, however, I doubt that seat glare would fully explain how Granderson could be as good as he was from 2006-07 only to see his defense completely bottom out in 2008. 2008 could have been a dramatic statistical outlier – that is a possibility – or it could have been the result of timid play after Granderson fractured a finger earlier that year (that plus seat glare). Whatever the reason for his defensive downfall two seasons ago, the young center fielder’s 2009 also indicates a lost step in the outfield. There are no clear excuses for Granderson’s performance, though, unless he brought his offensive struggles to the field.

Whatever the case may be, Granderson rebounded enough in 2009 after his disastrous 2008 to spur genuine optimism regarding his defense. He has the range needed to be an above average center fielder, plus his arm isn’t too bad either. Thus, it is reasonable to expect a rebound on the field, as Thomson does, given his overall track record.

Photo by Reuters

The Yankee blogosphere has been buzzing lately with the news that Curtis Granderson has agreed to move to left field if the club asks him to. This is a move that we have discussed extensively here at TYU, with most of the writers advocating the club putting the better defender, Gardner, in center field. I have been a bit more hesitant, agreeing with Rob Neyer that practical concerns and the chance of a Gardner flop make the switch a bad idea. Dave Cameron, however, has a different perspective that may be the definitive view on the subject:

Whether you have Brett Gardner in left and Granderson in center or vice versa, the overall impact on the Yankees will be so minor as to not be worth the discussion.

Gardner may actually be the better defender at this point, and we have been conditioned to believe that the best defensive outfielder should play center, as he will have more opportunities to flag down balls than either of the corner outfielders. But if you have two guys who can capably handle center field (as the Yankees now do), it isn’t all that important which one ends up in CF……

The total difference in defensive performance between the two alignments is simply the drop in value in right-center balls caught minus the rise in value in left field line balls caught. We’re talking about a marginal difference on just a handful of balls in play over a full season. We’re talking about fractions of a run.

Cameron then goes on to suggest the Yankees go with Granderson in center simply to avoid the inevitable media attention should he be moved. Quite frankly, this is a point that I made when this discussion was first raised, and I continue to believe that it is the most logical course of action. Unless Granderson shows that he has inexplicably experienced a steep decline defensively, the difference between the two players is simply too small to justify moving the better player out of his spot. I would say that there is a decent chance that Brett Gardner is not the Yankee center fielder in 2011. Why mess with Granderson simply to save “fractions of a run” in 2010?

Agree? Disagree? Chime in below.

From Joel Sherman:

Second, the good news for the Yanks is that Jeter is a competent shortstop again; the bad news is he is a competent shortstop again.
At age 35, he was the AL’s best all-around shortstop last year, finishing third in the MVP vote, winning a Gold Glove (more deservedly than in the past) and being a force on a champion. He is in the same training regimen for the third straight offseason and if 2010 resembles 2009, the Yanks will be very pleased, well, until negotiations begin.
This would have been a different negotiation if Jeter was holding on as a left fielder or DH, being kept around mostly for emeritus reasons. Now the Yanks almost certainly will have to treat Jeter as the current and future shortstop of the team, and not the kind of defensive liability that enabled them to play hardball in pushing Williams and Damon off the roster.

I would not paint Jeter’s defensive renaissance as bad news. Yes, it does make negotiations a bit more difficult in terms of keeping Jeter’s cost down. However, I think that it is highly likely that the Yankees would have been forced to pay Jeter an exorbitant sum regardless of what position he might have been headed for. This contract, as unfortunate as this may be, is likely to be just as much a reward for past performance as it is compensation for future contributions. I firmly believed prior to 2009 that he would get around 18-20 million a season for 3-4 years, and he simply put himself at the upper end of those ranges with his great season. Another great season may add a few million to those totals, but it is unlikely that it will move the contract into an area that the Yankees cannot afford or will be unwilling to pay. As such, the fact that he has improved defensively can only be a good thing.

If Jeter continues to display his newfound defensive prowess in 2010, the Yankees will simply be paying big dollars to someone they believe can remain at his position for a number of years, as opposed to someone who might have to learn a new position at some point during the life of the contract. Derek Jeter was always going to get a large contract. Now it seems like he actually has a chance to earn it.

Thus far, I’ve taken multiple looks at offensive projections and what they could signal for the Yankees in 2010. In some of those posts, I’ve briefly gone over the defensive projections for some players. I’d like to go more deeply into that today. To do so, I’ll be looking at these age adjusted UZR projections.

Leading off, I’ll start with the leadoff hitter: Derek Jeter. Last season was a defensive renaissance for the Captain. The process started in 2008 when Jeter saw his UZR/150 jump from -16.7 in 2007 to -0.7, so he was essentially average. In 2009, Jeter’s defense sky rocketed to an 8.4 UZR/150 mark, the first time Jeter was in the black in terms of UZR. My eyes, for one, seemed to back this up as Jeter’s range to his left seemed much, much better (though it looked like he still had trouble going to hsi right). No matter how we slice it, Jeter had a damn good fielding season in ‘09. For 2010, this system projects Jeter to be at -2.0/150. That’d be a big hit from last season–a 10.4 run drop–but considering where Jeter’s been according to UZR, that’s not all that bad. I suspect Jeter’s defensive projection, despite the great fielding season in 2009, is lower because of two things. The first is Jeter’s age; he’s not getting younger and most shortstops don’t get better in the field with age. The second is the fact that it looks like Jeter’s 2009 season was the outlier in terms of defense. Hopefully, Jeter can repeat last year’s performance on the left side of the infield, but I won’t be shocked if he doesn’t.

Let’s stay on the left side of the infield and look at Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod’s fielding was up and down last year, but it was mostly down. His arm looked as strong as ever, but his range was severely decreased. Now that Rodriguez is farther removed from his hip surgery, I expect his range to get a bit better. I don’t think he’ll be in the black, but he won’t be as far in the red as he was last year (-11.7/150) and the projection agrees with me and sees Rodriguez posting a -5 UZR/150. With his offense, as long as he’s not Adam Dunn in the field, he’s a positive. A six run improvement, even if it is still on the wrong side of the number line, would be welcomed warmly.

In my humble opinion, there is no more puzzling player on defense than Robinson Cano. There are weeks when Cano looks like he’s the greatest second basemen to ever play the position. Then, the very next week, he’ll look completely lost at second. Robbie ended last year with a -5.2 UZR/150, his second straight year with a big negative number (-7.0 in ‘08). He’s projected for -2.0/150 and that makes sense. The only consistent thing about Cano’s defense is inconsistency. Regardless, he has the offense to way out-hit a -2 UZR projection and I will not be surprised at all if Cano posts another 4.0-5.0 WAR season.

No one sparked a bigger debate about the merits/demerits of UZR in 2009 than first baseman Mark Teixeira. Despite showing what looked like great defense at first, Tex posted a UZR/150 of -4.1. It’s worth noting that UZR has its holes for every position, but it’s least effective and accurate when dealing with first basemen, so take that number with a grain of salt. The projection sees Mark improving to a 0 UZR/150. In the last four seasons, Tex’s UZR/150 numbers have been -1.8, -5.2, +9.3, and -4.1. Those numbers are all over the place, so I’d expect that 0 UZR/150 to come to pass as it’s right in the middle.

2010 should give the Yankees their strongest defensive outfield in a long, long time. Brett Gardner seemingly gets to everything, Curtis Granderson covers a lot of ground, and though he doesn’t make it look pretty, Nick Swisher’s got good range in right. Starting with Swisher, we see he’s projected for a +1 UZR/150, which is just around where he was last year (-1.2).

Either position, LF or CF, is projected to be a positive for Gardner. Interestingly enough, Gardner’s CF projection, +8, is higher than his LF projection of +2. Regardless, it looks like we’re heading into 2010 with Gardner as the starting left fielder. That projection, though, is way too bearish. It’s that way probably because of a small sample (17 games) and I expect Gardner to field much better than that in 2010.

Curtis Granderson is projected positively in center field as well, with a +1 UZR/150 prediction. That seems about right, considering that’s where he was last year (1.6) and where he was in ‘08 (-9.3). It’s likely, though, that Granderson will outplay that projection because he won’t be relied upon to cover much ground, since he won’t have Magglio Ordonez (-5.8 UZR/150) or Carlos Guillen (-12.7 UZR/150) flanking him.

Bench outfielder Randy Winn should get his fair amount of time in the field as well; in right and left (+11 and +7 respectively), he projects positively.

The Yankees should have a solid defense in 2010 and paired with a strong pitching staff, the Yankees should do pretty well in the run prevention category.

When many discuss Brett Gardner’s value, they are quick to point to his defense, citing UZR as well as UZR/150 to outline his tremendous glove. For instance, in 2009, over 99 games, Gardner’s 7.4 UZR and 15.4 UZR/150 were two of the best marks in the American League. However, while there is an apparent sample size issue with regards to Gardner’s rating, I think another aspect we should look to examine further is Gardner’s interesting arm rating.

Last season, a significant chunk of Gardner’s UZR was derived from arm runs. He was worth 3.0 outfield arm runs above average, which was, in fact, one of the best numbers in baseball relative to his position in center field. This was no fluke either, as Gardner’s arm in ‘08, between left and center field, was worth 4.9 outfield arm runs above average. Now, most people assume Gardner’s great UZR is predicated upon range and, while that is true, he does have good range – over the past two seasons, he has been valued at 12.2 range runs above average, which is another top-rated number among all outfielders – many Yankees fans would be surprised to know that Gardner’s arm is such a contributing factor – 7.9 arm runs over the past two years – to his overall defensive value, according to UZR.

The added wrinkle here, however, is that Gardner’s arm is not actually as good as UZR perceives it to be. Though Gardner has a fairly accurate arm, I think – based on what we have seen with our own eyes over the past two seasons – it is safe to say that his arm strength is nowhere near a Melky Cabrera, or even a Nick Swisher, who has a stronger arm but is not very accurate with his throws. Gardner’s arm rating, then, is founded upon arm accuracy but is inflated by his speed. Basically, Gardner’s wheels allow him to get to balls quicker than expected. This, then, allows him to gun down runners who wish to challenge him on the basepaths, because of his seemingly weak throwing arm. So, while Gardner’s arm rating is very good, the measure is also very generous as it is furthered by a non-arm factor.

As a result, Gardner’s UZR and UZR/150 are also somewhat aerated. If the 26-year old is given the opportunity to play a full season in 2010, I would guess that his arm rating will decrease as runners will grow more aware of his great speed, forcing them to limit their attempts to stretch out base hits. Thus, Gardner’s UZR figures will also go down (of course, I am drawing upon small samples, so perhaps we will see something entirely different). The reason I write this is to temper defensive expectations for Gardner, especially if he patrols center field. While he is a good defensive player – that much is clear – his defensive ratings could come down to earth a bit in 2010.

Photo by Reuters

From Joel Sherman:

Joe Girardi made a bunch of controversial decisions last year (such as three starters in the postseason, Derek Jeter at leadoff, the newest edition of the Joba Rules) and ended up a championship manager. I think this will embolden him further to go with his beliefs, and I think one of those will be to have a flexible outfield. I could see Winn, among others, being moved around the outfield and defense – especially in the late innings with a lead – emphasized……

The Yanks moved up to get the top pick in the Rule 5 draft to obtain Jamie Hoffman and recently traded for Greg Golson. They view both as above-average defenders. The think the same about Reid Gorecki, who they signed to a minor league deal. Barring injuries, Golson and Gorecki are expected to begin the year at Triple-A….

The Yankees have bought even further into the notion that we are entering a phase when defense will be more valued than in the recent juiced past. And because of that I can see times this season when the Yankees are, say, leading 3-2 in the ninth inning when Girardi boldly pulls Granderson and Nick Swisher off the field and goes with a defense of Winn in left, Gardner in center and Hoffman in right.

I do not believe that Joe would go so far as to pull both Swisher and Granderson from a game for defensive purposes, as the Yankees would then be in a bind should the game happen to go to extra innings. The marginal value that you get from one inning of improved defense may not be worth the loss of offense that you would have should the game extend, especially considering that both Swish and Grandy are solid defenders.

However, I do thing the general point holds true: the bench that the Yankees currently have is built around defense, with much of the current value of players like Hoffmann and Winn tied up in their defensive abilities. With 8 starters that you will rarely pinch hit for, this is an efficient use of roster spots for the Yankees. However, one power bat off the bench would be welcome, and I could see the Yankees extending a non-roster invite to a Johnny Gomes type of player. Other than that, the Yankee bench will likely be all about defense and speed.