I didn’t see the game at all today, but I heard that Joba’s line was pretty crappy. He gave up three runs in just an inning and a third and, via Chad Jennings, he gave up two triples, a double, and three walks. That’s bad. But, why should we care? It’s Spring Training. Everyone has a bad game at some point in ST and we shouldn’t look into this too deeply.
Of course, if this becomes a trend, we should probably start to worry. But, for now, let’s realize that, like most (all) Spring Training stats are next to meaningless. If the pitchers look a little rusty at first and the hitters don’t perfectly hit their strides in February and March, don’t panic.
On Joba and Phil, though, I have another thought. It will be interesting to see how hard they–and the other fifth starter “candidates” push themselves. While it’s publicly a competition, I think it’s anything but (the job is Joba’s to lose). That won’t stop each guy from trying his hardest to win that spot. As a manager, I’d imagine Joe Girardi wants to see each guy give it his best to show he should get that spot, but there’s also the balance that must be struck. Joe, and we, has to hope that no one exerts himself too hard and injures himself during a fairly meaningless Spring Training game.
Also from Jennings, other notes from Thursday:
• Nice work by Boone Logan today. He retired all four batters he faced, and three of them were lefties.
Logan’s in a spot to really compete for a job. Depending on how Cashman and Girardi want to construct the bullpen, Logan’s got a shot to make the team as the second lefty.
• Speaking of relievers pitching well, Mark Melancon looked sharp today. He struck out two in his one inning of work, and made Jayson Werth look pretty bad on a curveball.
Keeping with the bullpen theme, I’m really pulling for Mark Melancon this season. We’ve long had high hopes for him as a key part of the Yankees’ bullpen. Hopefully, he can make big strides this year and fill a role similar to David Robertson’s in 2009.
Heading into 2009, we were treated to multiple “battles” at Spring Training. The above pictured Ramiro Pena won a mini-battle, a skirmish if you will, to become the bench infielder/utility man when the Yankees broke camp. The two major battles were in the outfield. In center field, Brett Gardner won the starting center field job over Melky Cabrera, though he eventually lost that job after underperforming early in the season.
In right field, Nick Swisher lost out to Xavier Nady, but when Nady went down with an injury, Swisher filled in more than admirably and had a fantastic year, belting 29 home runs and posting a career high 129 OPS+.
This season, there are a few battles we should keep an eye on. Two of them, though one of them is pretty small, are on the pitching side and one of them is on the bench, and it involves Ramiro Pena once again.
Let’s start off by looking at the small-potatoes battle in the bullpen. Disclaimer: I’m assuming the loser of the fifth starter battle is placed in SWB as the sixth starter, therefore the set-up spot is open. While it is likely that they will be rather “interchangeable”–that is, either option would be fine–it’s still possible that one of Damaso Marte or David Robertson will be the primary set-up man, regardless of where the batter stands. If either pitcher can show the ability to balance his splits, he could be used more frequently. However, I’d still expect Marte to face lefties the vast majority of the time and that this “battle” will not yield much of consequence. Both are fine set-up options and I’d be more than comfortable with either one of them pitching in front of Mariano Rivera.
The Yankees’ rotation spots one through four are set: Sabathia, Burnett, Vazquez, Pettitte. The fifth spot is still, apparently, up for grabs. The two contenders are youngsters Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. Both of them have had incredible success in the bullpen, but developing them as starters is the Yankees’ plan (as it should be) so one of them will definitely have to start full time this year.
As starters, both have been nothing if not inconsistent. Regardless, they’ve both shown incredible flashes of brilliance in the rotation. If I had to predict how this battle would go right now, I’d say that it’s almost a sure thing that Joba Chamberlain will get the nod as the fifth starter. While Hughes got over 100 innings last year, Chamberlain made 30 starts and pitched a full season innings wise. Frankly stated, he’s much more prepared to start in the Majors than Hughes is. I like them both, a lot, but the truth is that unless there’s an injury, only one of them can start full time for all of 2010. The two of them still need to put some work in before they reach their potential as top-of-the-rotation-starters, but, as I said only one of them can put that work in full time. The real question is whether or not the Yankees will use the loser of the battle as the sixth starter at AAA or as a set-up option in the bullpen. For my thoughts on that, see this post.
The last battle is essentially a skirmish as well. The winner of this “fight” is not likely to have a major impact on the Yankees and if he is counted on to do so, the 2010 season is probably in a great, great deal of trouble. The only other open spot I can see–as of right now–is the utility infielder position. Last year, Ramiro Pena won the job over Angel Berroa and he performed pretty well. He OPS’d .699 and played solid defense at short and third. All in all, he did a good job as the utility guy. Why, then, would his spot be in jeopardy? Mostly because his .699 OPS is the outlier in his career. His minor league OPS is .635 and while his .287 BA in ‘09 at the ML level was nice, it was largely due to a .340 BABIP. Despite his great defense, Pena’s lack of a bat could be his downfall in 2010. His in-organization combination will likely be Kevin Russo, who offers similar position flexibility, but a slightly better bat. While Russo hasn’t flashed much power in the minors, .403 SLG, his .360 OBP is nice and shows good maturity at the plate. At the plate, it’s not likely that Russo represents much of an upgrade over Pena, and Pena is the better fielder; he also has experience on his side, and I’d expect Pena to win. Despite that, I’m sure we’ll see Kevin Russo at some point in 2010.
From Adam Spunberg (YESNetwork.com):
Robertson is an amiable guy, but he let his affability extend to the Phillies today. After Marte came in and expertly navigated through two outs of a jam, Robertson proceeded to walk Jayson Werth and surrender a two-RBI single to Raul Ibanez. Good-natured Dave should offer to do CC Sabathia’s laundry for a week after muddying what had been a detergent-fresh start.
While Spunberg is correct in that David Robertson allowed a frustrating 2-out 2 RBI single after Damaso Marte had already pulled a rabbit out of a hat, I think placing this much blame upon him is absurd. Robertson allowed a weak single to Ibanez, that’s true, however, Phil Hughes had already walked two men—Rollins and Victorino—in that half inning and they were the two runs. The hit wouldn’t have mattered if Hughes had done his job (or if he had done even 1/3 of his job), but, then again, if that were the case, Robertson would not have been facing Raul Ibanez to begin with.
Last night’s loss, a 6-1 drubbing, can be connected to the poor job done by the Yankees offense and by two relievers, specifically—Hughes and Bruney. To heap blame upon anyone else is both unwarranted and unfair. Then again, I guess you could criticize Joe Girardi for bringing in Brian Bruney, who was awful in what will hopefully be his only appearance this series. I can see that move as a premature, informal surrendering of sorts, as he promptly gave up 2 earned runs and put the game out of reach for the Bombers’ bats. Still, while that’s a legitimate managerial critique, the Yankees didn’t lose because of that decision, instead, it just made winning that much more difficult in the 9th inning.
Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
From Bill Madden:
In the meantime, Girardi couldn’t have expected that David Robertson, one of the last players put on the roster, would be his most effective reliever outside of Rivera. Robertson has gotten Girardi a total of nine outs in the postseason, all of them in extra innings. Scouts, impressed by the 23-year-old’s performance under pressure, wondered if the Yankees might consider turning the second-year righthander into a starter, allowing him to use all of his pitches.
“I’m a reliever and I’m gonna stay a reliever,” said Robertson, who was a closer at the University of Alabama when the Yankees drafted him on the 17th round in 2006. “I haven’t started a game since college and we’ll be fine next year in the starting rotation.”
Supposedly because that’s where Hughes and Chamberlain are headed.
I’m going to assume, from this point forward, that any scout who would not put his name to such an innocuous thought is fictional, and is just a literary construct used by Madden to make his own ridiculous suggestions. Robertson does not have multiple pitches. Rather he has a fastball and a curveball, and therefore has no business moving to the rotation. Pitchers like Hughes and Chamberlain, on the other hand, have multiple pitches and plenty of experience as starters.
It is amazing that we have reached this point: Madden seems upset that the Yankees are moving two starters back into the rotation next season, and advocates moving a bullpen prospect into the rotation instead. Ridiculous.
Yesterday, during the bottom half of the 11th inning and with the score tied, 4-4, Joe Girardi decided to replace David Robertson with Alfredo Aceves. Robertson had already retired both Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales, two of LA’s more dangerous hitters, and he seemed poised to dispose of the third batter, Howie Kendrick, who had already tripled and hit a homer run earlier in the game. However, Robertson would not get that chance, as Girardi—apparently influenced by something within his neatly organized blue binder of information—hurried to the mound in order to make a pitching change. Given a specific scouting report on Kendrick (or a series of reports), the Aceves-Kendrick pairing seemed like a more effective option to Girardi, despite Robertson’s stellar work out of the bullpen for the first two outs.
Of course, as we all know, Girardi’s decision to bring in Aceves ended up backfiring on both him and the Yankees. Kendrick quickly singled and then scored the winning run after the almighty Jeff Mathis hit a walk-off double out to left-center. The Rally Monkey strikes again. Now, while the game is certainly over, questions remain as to why Girardi chose Aceves over Robertson? What did he see in his blue binder that ultimately forced his hand? In order to better understand the decision, I turn to Frankie Piliere (Fanhouse), a former scout with the Texas Rangers. Here’s his take on the controversial call that many will argue cost the Yankees a commanding 3-0 lead in the ALCS.
The obvious question is what exactly was in that book? Well, let’s take it from the top. Robertson, a right-hander, throws a fastball at 91-94 mph with what scout’s like to a call late hop. He likes to change eye levels and gets swings and misses up with the fastball and down with his plus 12-6 curveball. He has back-end-of-the-’pen type stuff.
Aceves, on the other hand, has more of a starter’s approach, pitching to contact with a number of pitches to which he can turn. He has mostly been working at 89-91 with the fastball in recent outings, but what is concerning is the feel for his secondary pitches. In his playoff outings, his breaking balls have been elevated, often backing up on him over the plate.
So, what was Girardi’s line of thinking? He’s unlikely to read off his scouting report to the media, but it obviously came down to the advanced scouting. The Yankees have had fits with Howie Kendrick since he arrived in the big leagues, mainly because they just can’t seem to be able to get inside on him. With that in mind, it looked like with Aceves they were hoping to get him out away with soft stuff on pitches moving to the outside. Keep in mind that, just innings earlier, he had pounded a 96-mph fastball off of Joba Chamberlain for a triple.
Kendrick is a hitter that needs to be attacked with patterns and a mix of speeds. He pounds the fastball, and especially against New York, doesn’t seem to let many mistakes get by him. All three of his hits on Monday came off some kind of fastball — cutters from Pettitte and Aceves and straight heat from Chamberlain. Robertson tends to let the fastball ride high with his four-seamer, and with Kendrick’s approach it’s likely the Yankee manager sensed a repeat of his at-bat against Chamberlain.
These are all interesting insights that can be further examined. Essentially, according to Piliere, Girardi brought in Aceves because, as a former starter, he knows how to mix his pitches and change speeds, whereas Robertson is more of a fastball, curveball reliever that will try to sneak a high fastball by batters for a strikeout (along with the low curve). However, Kendrick does, indeed, love the fastball—pitch value data agrees—and he had already made an example out of Joba Chamberlain’s fastball during the 7th inning (and Joba’s pitch is considered more overpowering than Robertson’s). Therefore, approaching Kendrick with a different set of tools might have enticed Girardi. With Aceves’ repertoire featuring a fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup, perhaps Girardi thought that this particular combination of pitches would prove more effective if located properly (i.e., away from Kendrick).
The pitch-by-pitch data (Gameday) seems to be in congruence with this notion, as Aceves threw Kendrick three 89-91 mph cutters to the outer edge of the zone in an attempt to induce a ground ball or soft fly. The cutters weren’t necessarily “soft stuff,” which works against Piliere’s theory, yet the location and the movement were away from Kendrick, rather than on the inner part of the plate (as Piliere suggested). Aceves could not perform effectively, though. His command was poor and Kendrick took advantage of a misplaced cutter that sat in the middle of the zone, sending it directly by Aceves’ outstretched glove for a clutch single.
This, then—the pitching style employed by Alfredo Aceves—explains why Girardi thought it best for Aceves, not Robertson, to face Kendrick (Robertson has a slider that he could have used, but he rarely ever throws it). At least now, with this information from Piliere and assuming that it’s somewhat accurate, there is a better understanding of what Girardi was attempting to do. Still, while his decision-making is made clearer given Piliere’s analysis, Piliere himself seems to believe that Girardi should have exercised better judgment when weighing a season’s worth of scouting reports comparing pitcher and hitter styles versus a reliever’s most recent performances.
Regardless of the scouting report favoring Aceves’ style against Kendrick, it’s questionable whether a scouting report should trump the consideration of recent performances. Robertson has been free and easy of late, getting through his fastball, getting to the outside corner on righties, and commanding his sharp breaking ball. Aceves has been quite the opposite, looking tentative in recent outings and appearing to push his breaking ball. Many will call out Girardi for relying on the scouting report rather than having a feel for how his current pitcher is looking and conversely how shaky Aceves has looked lately.
Bob Klapisch (The Record) offered a similar view late last night. “[N]o one ever said he was blessed with the gift of tuition,” noted Klapisch about Girardi. “Girardi instead lives safely within the margins, protecting himself with numbers. Managers who choose this path never have to believe their own eyes, which is why Girardi could ignore the fact that Robertson had dominated Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales for the first two outs in the 11th.” Both, Klapisch and Piliere are stating that Girardi failed to consider recent context—immediate context in this case—choosing, instead, to allow a lifeless scouting report to guide his final call. However, as with any analysis—let’s be clear, Girardi’s decision was an on-the-spot analysis—one should aim to use all manners of data present, whether they be quantitative (scouting reports) or qualitative (recent performance). For Girardi, he mistakenly chose only the former.
In the end, I think most of us would agree that Girardi made a bad decision. His strict adherence to a specific type of data likely hurt the team’s chances in Game 3. But, to be fair, that does not mean he is a bad manager. Furthermore, that also does not mean that the Yankee players, and their fans, should continue to dwell on the move, especially since the team’s offense was the main culprit for last night’s loss. Today is a new day and the Bombers still hold a 2-1 advantage in the series. With 4 games left to play before a winner is decided, that’s all that really matters.
Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
After testing his elbow in a bullpen session on Saturday, according to Andy McCullough (Star-Ledger), the Yankees will likely use David Robertson on Tuesday against the Royals. Barring any setbacks, he should be on the team’s postseason roster, as Girardi has demonstrated a willingness to bring Robertson in whenever the team is in need of a strikeout.
Robertson has quietly put together a very productive year in the bullpen, striking out 61 over 41 innings while maintaining a 3.29 ERA (3.07 FIP). In fact, Robertson’s K/9 sits at 13.39—the highest in the AL and the second highest in baseball. Only Jonathon Broxton has been better at striking out opponents (13.50 K/9). If Robertson can lower his walk rate a bit, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him emerge as the team’s setup man in 2010.
UPDATE – Peter Abraham notes that Robertson has been cleared to pitch and will probably make an appearance during today’s game.
UPDATE – Looks like Andy McCullough was right. Abraham confirms that Robertson will not pitch until tomorrow.
Due to what has been characterized as “elbow tightness,” according to Anthony DiComo, David Robertson has been shut down indefinitely. He is also scheduled to see Dr. James Andrews after undergoing an MRI yesterday. This is a tough break for the team as Robertson has been an effective piece of the bullpen. Hopefully we’ll see him again this season.
Dave Allen has a short writeup about the Yankees’ bullpen over at Fangraphs. In it, he recognizes the significant contribution by the bullpen, as the Yankees have built a 6 1/2 game lead in the AL East. The Yankees have had one of the better bullpens in baseball, especially recently. Allen points out the extra-inning affairs against the Red Sox, noting how well the ‘pen did in high leverage situations as evidence of the group’s effectiveness.
Over the last 30 days, the Yankee bullpen’s ERA of 3.83 is higher than the Red Sox’s 3.53. However, the Sox have been helped by a good defensive club (J.D. Drew, Pedroia, Youkilis, Kotchman, etc.), as their FIP of 4.36 is considerably higher than their ERA. The Yankees actually have a 3.50 FIP during that span, meaning that their defense could have done a bit more to help the team’s relievers (there’s not a huge disparity between the ERA and FIP, though). The Yankee bullpen also has a 9.62 K/9 while Boston’s K/9 is 8.04. Plus, our relievers are walking fewer batters—2.78 BB/9—when compared to the BoSox relief corps (4.08 BB/9). Much of this success can be attributed to Phil Hughes and the emerging David Robertson. Joe Girardi deserves our kudos as well for mixing and matching accordingly.
- CC Sabathia was excellent once again, going 7 innings and allowing 3 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks while striking out 8. He did not allow a hit until the Yankees has taken a 7-0 lead, and two of the three runs against him came off seeing eye singles, with a Gardy Sizemore homer accounting for the third. CC has pitched like an ace over the last month, and it is no coincidence that the Yankees have turned it around as a club over that period. THe pitching has stabilized, with Sabathia being at the forefront of that improvement.
- Derek Jeter is on fire, as he notched another 2 hits and added 2 RBI. As I discussed last week, he looks better in the field as well, and he is likely to finish the season as the best SS in the AL. Those expecting a steep decline for Derek Jeter look like they are going to have to deal with some disapointment.
- Nick Swisher homered and walked, and he looks a lot better over the last few days. Perhaps he just needed Xavier Nady to near a return to get him going again. Hideki Matsui added three hits last night, and he too has looked much better over the llast week. However, he could barely run the bases last night, and looked like Nady may steal some of his at bats while he rests his achy knees.
- David Robertson has looked sharp since returning from the minors. He has retired all 8 batters that he has faced, and has been attacking the zone with regularity, something that should catch Joe Girardi’s eye in a bullpen that walks way too many batters. He struck Grady Sizemore out last night by getting ahead and then challenging him with his fastball. It was an impressive showing.
- Jose Veras should be just about out of chances. At this point, I would rather see Melancon, or if the Yankees are not ready to bring him back, even Casey Fossum. Veras looks lost on the mound, and I have doubts that he would even be claimed off waivers should the club designate him for assignment.
