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Best Case Scenario: Fifth Starter

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Feb 072011

Late last week I played around with a WAR spread sheet and projected the 2011 rotation while comparing it to the 2010 rotation. I was pleased by the results since they weren’t as ugly as we may’ve expected. Consider it riding that relatively high feeling, but I’m going to get a bit more bold. I’m going to take all those random fifth starter candidates–Sergio Mitre, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Hector Noesi, Andrew Brackman, and David Phelps and project their performance in a different way.

I’m going to keep their CAIRO projected FIPs the same, but I’m going to tinker with the innings. Instead of changing the projected performance, I’m going to change the duration of that performance. I’ll take whatever FIP that CAIRO gives me and “extrapolate” it out to the same number of innings the Yankees got out of their “fifth” starter last year. I designate fifth starter as the guy with the fifth highest innings pitched total. In 2010, that was Andy Pettitte and his 129 innings. Performance wise, Pettitte obviously wasn’t the fifth best starter, but we’re just talking innings here. I call this post the “best case scenario” because if the Yankees get 129 innings out of any of these guy’s, it’d be damn near miraculous.

Sergio Mitre:
Actual Projection: 4.69 FIP in 72 IP = 0.7 WAR
Extrapolated Projection: 4.69 FIP in 129 IP = 1.3 WAR

Ivan Nova:
Actual: 5.04 FIP/116 IP/0.8 WAR
Extrapolated: 5.04 FIP/129 IP/0.8 WAR

Freddy Garcia:
Actual: 4.90 FIP/31 IP/0.2 WAR
Extrapolated: 4.90 FIP/129 IP/1.0 WAR

Bartolo Colon (No CAIRO projection for Colon, using Marcel instead):
Actual: 4.60 FIP/66 IP/0.7 WAR
Extrapolated: 4.60 FIP/129 IP/1.4 WAR

Hector Noesi:
Actual: 4.91 FIP/81 IP/0.6 WAR
Extrapolated: 4.91 FIP/129 IP/1.0 WAR

Andrew Brackman:
Actual: 5.26 FIP/63 IP/0.3 WAR
Extrapolated: 5.26 FIP/129 IP/0.6 WAR

David Phelps:
Actual: 5.05 FIP/94 IP/0.6 WAR
Extrapolated: 5.05 FIP/129 IP/0.8 WAR

Based on these ridiculously rough calculations, the best we’re probably looking at from the Yankee (nominal) fifth starter is anywhere from 0.6 WAR (Brackman) to 1.4 WAR (Colon, which is probably the most out there of these projections). Considering what the Yankees got out of their fifth starter(s) last year in terms of performance, I would sign up for that. Javier Vazquez was under replacement level by fWAR (-0.2) in 2010 so anything would be an improvement. I’m not confident in saying that any one of these guys will necessarily reach the arbitrary 129 IP mark, but if it happens, I’ll be dancing.

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Projecting the Rotation

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Feb 022011

Without a hint of hesitation, I would say that the starting rotation is the biggest hole the 2011 Yankees will have. It consists of one bonafide ace/workhorse/gamer/whatever buzzword there is for pitchers in CC Sabathia. After that, there’s no shortage of question marks. Let’s rewind to last year for a second.

The Yankees had eight men take the hill to start a game in 2010: Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, Dustin Moseley, and Javier Vazquez. Sparing the long reminiscence, we could call 2010 a mixed bag in terms of success for the Yankee starters. CC Sabathia had a typical CC Sabathia season. Andy Pettitte was great, but was injured and threw under 130 innings. Mitre enjoyed a small sample of (probably unsustainable) success; Moseley was replacement level as expected; Nova showed some potential. Phil Hughes looked like he was starting to realize his considerable upside, though he did slide a bit after an impressive first month. Vazquez and Burnett? Looking at their collective performance in 2010 is like looking at the light that came from the Ark of the Covenant, only it wasn’t the power of God but of unmatched suckitude.

All told, the 2010 starters for the Yankees tossed 973 innings and racked up 10.60 fWAR. Can the 2011 rotation match or beat that? A lot of our gut reactions might say “no” considering how poorly we’ve been “conditioned” to view the forthcoming rotation. So I plugged some Yankee projections into the pitching WAR spreadsheet from Beyond the Box Score (glove slap Mike Axisa) to see what would come out the other end.

I intended this post to only be about Ivan Nova, but I thought why not expand it to the whole rotation? After all, I like to think I live by the “go big or go home” motto that a high school friend spouted perpetually. I used nine starters, the nine I think are most likely to make starts for the 2011 Yankees. I took their CAIRO projected innings pitched and FIPs and plugged them into the above spreadsheet and here’s what I got:

CC Sabathia: 210 IP w/3.68 FIP = 4.7 WAR
Phil Hughes: 172 IP w/4.17 FIP = 2.8 WAR
A.J. Burnett: 187 IP w/4.50 FIP = 2.3 WAR
Ivan Nova: 116 IP w/5.04 FIP = 0.8 WAR
Sergio Mitre: 72 IP w/4.69 FIP = 0.7 WAR
Freddy Garcia: 31 IP w/4.90 FIP = 0.2 WAR
Andrew Brackman: 63 IP w/5.26 FIP = 0.3 WAR
David Phelps: 94 IP w/5.05 FIP = 0.6 WAR
Hector Noesi: 80 IP w/4.91 FIP = 0.6 WAR

Before we get to tabulating the results, I want to review my methodology a bit here. I kept each pitcher’s leverage at 1.0 to make things even. I didn’t change the CAIRO innings projections at all, even though some of them might be unrealistic. I don’t think Phelps (or Noesi or maybe even Brackman) will get that many innings and I don’t think Garcia will get that few. I’m also assuming in this that every inning pitched by these guys is as a starting pitcher, which may not be likely for the “prospect trio” and Sergio Mitre. That said, some of this stuff isn’t THAT far out of the realm of possibility, so let’s get to the results.

These projections give us 1025 innings pitched by Yankee starters, in which they rack up 12.9 WAR. Both of those numbers beat the 2010 version of Yankee starting pitching. We must note that the 2011 projection includes one more pitcher than the 2010 “rotation” did so I adjusted this with a rough WAR/IP calculation. The 2010 starters were worth 0.0109 WAR/IP and the 2011 rotation projects to be worth 0.0126 WAR/IP.

The rotation was 11th in the American League in fWAR by starters in 2010 and if we plug the projected 2011 rotation into that list, it would have the 9th best SP fWAR in the AL. That’s still below the league median, but, again, better than what the team had in 2010.

We’ve been very doom-and-gloom about the possible rotation for 2011, but these numbers (that, yes, we should take with a grain of salt because they’re projections), should help allay our fears just a little bit. While it seems the 2011 rotation might not quite be league average as a whole, it could still be a two win improvement from 2010. With the added bullpen strength and the still strong lineup, the Yankees look like they’ll have a formidable team in 2011.

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Romine Gushes about System's Pitching

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 1 Response »
Dec 292010

An on going theme of 2010 for the Yankees has been the vast improvement of the minor league system. What was once barren has now been replenished. There may be some kinks to work out–a few more potential impact position players would be nice–but behind Jesus Montero, there are definitely some high quality arms we could see either this season or in the next one or two.

Adding to the praise of the revamped Yankee farm system is catching prospect Austin Romine. In a recent blog post by the Daily News’s Anthony McCarron, Romine spoke of the talent in the Yankees farm system.

“There are so many good pitchers in our organization and it’s being overlooked. DJ Mitchell, (David) Phelps, (Dellin) Betances, (Andrew) Brackman. They’re all really good. I had the good fortune to catch a few of them in Double A and see them go up and I’m really proud of that.

We’ve, rightly, heard a lot about Betances and Brackman this season. They both have high ceilings and made big strides this year. There’s still room to grow, though, as both need to stay healthy going forward. Brackman improved his control this year, cutting almost four (!!) walks per nine from his 2009 total. He kept his strikeout stuff, too, as he fanned 8.1 per nine (3.23 K/BB).

Betances pitched 85.1 innings in 2010, the second most of his career. He posted a career high 11.4 (!) K/9, while walking just 2.3 per nine (4.91 K/BB). If Big D can keep that performance up while still building up his innings, we could definitely see him in the Bronx in 2012.

Mitchell pitched 150.2 innings between Trenton (22 starts) and Scranton (3 starts). His WHIP was 1.400, but he did manage a 2.11 GB/FB rate at Trenton, as well as a 1.12 at Scranton. Aside from strikeout guys like Brackman and Betances, the Yankees should be focusing in groundball guys like Mitchell. While we’d probably like to see his K/9 creep over 7, as long as he gets grounders, we’ll be happy.

David Phelps had his second straight solid season in the Yankee system, posting a 3.92 K/BB and a 2.50 ERA across 158.2 innings between Trenton (88.1 IP) and Scranton (70.1 IP). Phelps pitches a lot of innings and gets good results; he’s another guy we could see make his debut in 2011.

Romine talked most about everyone’s favorite left hander, Manny Banuelos:

Banuelos out here was lights out in (the AFL All-Star game). That was one of the top starts I’ve seen.

“That’s tough for a 19 year old kid. Ninety percent of the guys on that field (in the AFL A-S game) are going to the big leagues and he came out and to pitch the way he did, he should be nothing but confident now. And I love seeing him gaining that confidence every month, it seems like, from when I got him from high A. He came up wide-eyed, a young kid. I didn’t know who he was and he was throwing gas. To see him mature over that time is great. He’s only 19 now and that’s young and he’s mature over his years.”

It looks like Romine saved his biggest praise for Banuelos and it’s well deserved. Of all the players mentioned, he probably has the best combination of upside and likelihood. Despite an appendectomy, Banuelos still managed to strike out 11.8 batters per nine innings while walking 3.5 per nine (3.40 K/BB). That 3.5 BB/9 is a bit inflated by bigger walk numbers in small appearances in the GCL and Trenton. In the place where he spent the most time, Tampa, Banuelos walked just 2.8 per nine.

I expect that we’ll be hearing big things out of all of these pitchers in 2011, Banuelos most of all. With each passing year, I get more and more pleasure out of following these guys in the minors. The best part of that is with each passing year, these guys get closer and closer to the big leagues.

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What would a two-slot spring training rotation battle look like?

Posted by EJ Fagan at 2:00 pm 12 Responses »
Dec 212010

If Andy Pettitte does not resign, the Yankees are currently set up to enter spring training with two open rotation spots. I don’t know about you, but I can’t remember that ever being the case on the modern Yankees. Even in 2008, when the Yankees attempted to use Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and later Joba Chamberlain all in the rotation, the plan was set from the start. If the Yankees decide to go into spring training with their current roster, it’ll really be a rare sight, and pretty interesting too from an objective standpoint.

Luckily for the Yankees, the team does have a lot of options. An exhaustive list at this point probably includes Ivan Nova, David Phelps, Sergio Mitre, Joba Chamberlain, D.J. Mitchell, Andrew Brackman, Dellin Betances, Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, and Romulo Sanchez, plus whatever minor league contracts the Yankees bring in to audition.

Right off the bat, I think the Yankees will value some stability by immediately promising one job to Ivan Nova. This would allow him to relax in spring training a little bit and work on his game, instead of having to endure the pressure of a competition. You can pass your own judgment on whether or not pressure is good for a young pitcher – I think the team should press him. Regardless, Ivan Nova is probably the best “ready-now” pitcher on the roster. He’s got two great things going for him – a superb 2.86 ERA in 146 Triple-A innings plus a solid MLB debut with a 4.50 ERA in 42 innings. He’s got the workload and mental icebreaking down. Nova’s problem is that he’s just not all that great of a pitcher. He has the stuff, and should be a MLB starter, but has poor K/BB numbers all around. He’s going to allow a lot of baserunners, which means a lot of runs. Still, he’ll get his outs, and shouldn’t be overexposed in the majors. The Yankees couldn’t really ask for much better right now.

Once we get to the competition, I think that the Yankees will only give a real serious chance at making the rotation to Phelps, Brackman and Mitre, plus Joba if they decide to go that route. They’ll do their due diligence on Sanchez and Mitchell, but neither are particularly promising as starters in the majors. Warren, Betances, and Noesi offer higher-ceiling options than Phelps and Mitre, but all could definitely benefit from some more time. The Yankees do not need their opening day starters to last the whole season, and Noesi in particular could very well be ready by the time its apparent that one of the MLB guys isn’t working out. If spring training is really kind to them and the Yankees are feeling pretty adventurous, maybe they get a shot. Just don’t bet the farm on it.

Phelps should be the favorite of this group. He has the potential to be a lot better than Mitre, but is a little more ready than Brackman. He pitched a robust 158 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, with a strong 3.92 K/BB ratio. He’s got solid enough stuff with a 91-93 mph fastball and a good slider, plus oodles of polish. He’s no ace, but Phelps definitely has the potential to stick in the back of the rotation on a team like the Yankees. You could see him pitching 200 innings with a 4.50 ERA, which we would take I think. Brackman, on the other hand, is the opposite kind of prospect. He had a fairly strong season, but topped out pitching 80 2/3 innings at Double-A. We all know about how good he can be. If he shows up to spring training looking like the good Brackman – in shape and all together mechanically – I think the Yankees will strongly consider him. But that needs to happen first. Sergio Mitre is Sergio Mitre. You know what he brings to the table – not a whole lot, but he’ll go out and pitch every 5th day.

Its important to remember what the Yankees are seeking to replace. Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez combined to pitch 286 innings for the Yankees with a combined ERA of 4.40. That’s what the Yankees should shoot for. Furthermore, the Yankees can count on some kind of mid-season reinforcement coming from Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, Dellin Betances, Manuel Banuelos, Brackman, etc, plus the trade market. I really don’t think this picture is all that bleak for the Yankees. Yeah, it might be painful to watch some rookies struggle at first, but it was just as painful to watch the Vazquez/Moseley/et al crew try and hold down the bottom part of the rotation this year. Cashman might not be pulling a Bubba Crosby here, folks. The truth is that Phelps and Nova are relatively solid, if unspectacular, major league options, and the rest of the crew represent high-ceiling potential at mid-season (or earlier in Brackman’s case).

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How do you judge a guy like David Phelps?

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 6 Responses »
Sep 032010

In many ways, the really talented guys in the system are easy to judge. Jesus Montero has a great scouting report, hits well, and meets expectations, or hits poorly and fails to meet expectations. The really fringy guys are easy to judge as well. Eric Wordekemper does not have major league stuff, so his performance doesn’t really matter. The guys in between are the hard part. David Phelps is an experienced, mostly talented starting pitcher whom the Yankees drafted out of Notre Damn in 2008.

After thinking about Phelps, the content of this post has changed. I originally wanted to sit down and write a “David Phelps, meet Pittsburgh Pirates”, but I think that I may be wrong. If I apply the criteria for a good prospect laid out in this post, I think Phelps actually stacks up pretty well. To review: those criteria are fastball velocity, innings pitched, strikeout rate and walk rate. In all of those departments, Phelps has made key improvements over 2009. Before I go into the criteria, here are his statistics:

Year Age Tm ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2008 21 Staten Island 2.72 15 15 72.2 67 28 22 4 18 52 8.3 0.5 2.2 6.4 2.89
2009 22 2 Teams 2.38 26 26 151.0 151 57 40 10 31 122 9.0 0.6 1.8 7.3 3.94
2009 22 Charleston 2.80 19 19 112.2 117 48 35 9 25 90 9.3 0.7 2.0 7.2 3.60
2009 22 Tampa 1.17 7 7 38.1 34 9 5 1 6 32 8.0 0.2 1.4 7.5 5.33
2010 23 2 Teams 2.57 25 24 150.2 134 51 43 6 36 137 8.0 0.4 2.2 8.2 3.81
2010 23 Trenton 2.04 14 14 88.1 63 21 20 2 23 84 6.4 0.2 2.3 8.6 3.65
2010 23 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 3.32 11 10 62.1 71 30 23 4 13 53 10.3 0.6 1.9 7.7 4.08
3 Seasons 2.52 66 65 374.1 352 136 105 20 85 311 8.5 0.5 2.0 7.5 3.66
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/3/2010.

Fastball Velocity – We’ve heard reports that Phelps throws between 89 and 95 mph with a two seem fastball. In reality, he’s probably a 90-93 mph thrower with a little bit of sink. That’s pretty strong, and he compliments it with a newly-improved slider. The sinker-slider combination is a pretty classic recipe for pitching, but also tends to produce misleading minor league numbers. For whatever reason, minor leaguers can’t handle the sinker-slider combination in any way proportional to how major leaguers handle it. I can’t count the number of sinker-slider guys who put up great numbers (but, and we’ll get to this, usually strikeout-light numbers) in High-A and Double-A before being knocked out in Triple-A or the majors. Hockey fans might know this as the “Alexander Daigle” effect. Luckily, the Yankees understand this, and it hasn’t seemed to ruin their confidence in Phelps.

Innings Pitched - Since being drafted, Phelps has been a healthy, reliable innings eater. He has yet to miss a start, and has put up a pretty consistent 5.8-6.0 innings per start rate all the way through the minor leagues. This means that he is fairly economical with his pitch counts, and consistent week to week. His healthiness is another big plus.

Strikeout Rate – Here’s the big improvement. Sinker-slider pitchers tend to dominate the low minors, but peter out as they rise through the minor leagues. Phelps has actually done the opposite. His K rate has risen as he has rises. Much of this can be owed to an improved slider. Phelps has also been knowing as more of a pitcher than a thrower, so there could be a little bit of added pitching aptitude in there too. His K rate dipped a bit in a half-season of Triple-A ball, but it still remained elevated from previous levels. The Yankees have been promoting him out of pure confidence.

Walk rate – Phelps has excellent control. He has enough stuff to throw strikes, and enough command to not throw balls. His walk rate has been pretty consistent. If nothing else, Phelps will be a major league starter somewhere just on the basis of being able to throw low 90s strikes.

The big question? Will Phelps be throwing his strikes out a first-division team like the Yankees, or will he join the ranks of interesting Yankee prospects throwing for the Pittsburgh Pirates. After thinking about it for a little bit, and sticking with my chosen criteria, I think that Phelps is going to be good enough to pitch for the Yankees. He has fewer warning signs than Ivan Nova, even if his ceiling is lower. The Yankees can probably rely on Phelps to be their first man out of the minors next season, and I could even see them give him an outside shot to earn the job in spring training. A 3.32 ERA at Triple-A is nothing to sniff at, and its made even better by his consistent K/BB ratio. He’s changed my opinion is six short months, and I hope the Yankees have noticed too.

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Prospect Stock Watch: Pitchers

Posted by Eric Schultz at 2:00 pm 1 Response »
Jun 282010

The dominant return of Dellin Betances to the prospect map has understandably attracted significant buzz, but in this post, I am going to write about of the performances of a few Yankee pitching prospects that have gone under the radar.

David Phelps

Phelps, a 14th-round pick out of Notre Dame in 2008, has put up strong performances at every level of the minors, and has continued to do so in 2010 with Trenton.  Phelps posted a 2.72 ERA and a 3:1 k/bb ratio in 2008 with Staten Island, and a 2.38 ERA with a k:bb ratio of about 4:1 in 2009 between Charleston and Tampa.  Despite making moving up to a much higher level of competition in 2010, Phelps has handled AA with as much ease as the lower levels.  Through 14 starts, Phelps is 6-0 with a 2.04 ERA and 84 strikeouts in 88 1/3 innings against 23 walks.  Phelps’s strikeout rate of nearly 1 per inning in 2010 is significantly higher than it has been in previous years, which points to the development of his secondary offerings that have helped him tackle the higher level of competition.  Phelps’s FIP of 2.45 would seem to indicate that his stellar ERA is not greatly influenced by luck, and could be sustainable going forward.  He may only have the ceiling of a #4 starter, and at 23 he’s not likely to improve drastically, but Phelps’s performance in AA could bode well for potential big league success.

Hector Noesi

Like Phelps, Noesi has a strong record of minor league success, and is posting an impressive season in AA at age 23.  Noesi began the season in Tampa, and after 8 strong starts (2.72 ERA, 53 strikeouts against 6 walks in 43 innings), the Yankees promoted him to Trenton.  Noesi has continued to pitch well through 45 innings in the Eastern League (with a 2.20 ERA), though his strikeout rate decreased and his walk rate increased.  Still, his k:bb ratio of 5:1 in AA is more than sufficient, and Noesi has 44 strikeouts in 45 innings, so his strikeout rate remains strong.  As with Phelps, Noesi’s FIP is not way out of line with his low ERA, though his FIP of 3.37 in Trenton is about a run above his ERA, so he could be due for a minor correction.  Noesi has a similar profile to Phelps, though his superior k:bb ratio could be indicative of a higher ceiling (maybe a #3 starter at best).

Zach McAllister

While Noesi and Phelps have raised their stock through strong performances in AA, McAllister, who has posted great ERA’s throughout his minor league career, has seen some uncharacteristic struggles at AAA at age 22.  McAllister was great in Trenton in 2009, with a 2.23 ERA, a k/9 rate of 7.14, a k:bb ratio around 3:1, and a GO:AO ratio of 1.07.  Everything has regressed for McAllister in 2010, as his k rate has gone down to 5.51 k/9 and his GO/AO ratio is down to 0.77.  The combination of fewer strikeouts and more flyballs, combined with a career high 5% HR/FB percentage have led to an ugly 4.55 ERA, with a FIP of 4.26 indicating that Z-Mac has not been exceptionally unlucky either.  While McAllister has maintained his good control (his walk rate actually went down between 2009 and 2010), his inability to get strikeouts or groundballs like he has in previous years is responsible for his greatly increased ERA, and indicates that he may need to make substantial changes to recover his form of previous years.  I’m not sure if his velocity or pitch selection has changed, but McAllister will continue to struggle if his strikeout and groundball rates remain this low.  Zach is a year younger than Noesi and Phelps and a level ahead of both of them, so he has plenty of time to get things figured out.

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Breakout Candidate: David Phelps

Posted by Tom Gaffney at 11:34 am 2 Responses »
Mar 102009

Long-time minor league blogger, John Sickels put out his list of possible sleepers/ breakout candidates yesterday.  On the roll was David Phelps, a 2nd rounder from last year (Notre Dame – 14th round) who was superb as a sophomore, but struggled his junior year. An excellent season in the NY/Penn League (sub-3 ERA and 52Ks in 72 innings), a decent breaking ball and a heater in the low 90s makes Sickels think that he may breakout this year into high-profile prospect status.

Some more Phelps numbers to throw at you (thanks fangraphs): his WHIP was  a tidy 1.17 but his fip was higher than his ERA (3.27) and his avg against was a solid but not spectacular .246.  Here’s some more info on him from the ND website.

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