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Jan 262011

It’s January 25th as I write this. When you read it, it will be January 26th. We’re definitely at the lowest of the low point in the offseason. The Hot Stove is about as hot as the weather in the northeast right now. I’ve been pretty even keeled for most of the offseason, but I think it’s time to complain about some things, even if they’re not big in the grand scheme of Yankee basketball.

The MLB.com prospect rankings came out yesterday and there are two things I want to complain about. Jesus Montero clocked in at number 9 on the rankings. In terms of the top 50, that’s great. Still, though, I think I’m in the majority in saying that 9 is too low a ranking for Mr. Montero. His future position may be in question, but no one can deny his bat and how special it is and how much his age intensifies that specialness. In my semi-educated opinion, Montero should be no lower than 5th on that list.

My next complaint about the rankings is the fact that Eduardo Nunez showed up as the number 9 second base prospect. Whiskey tango foxtrot? Nunez has played a total of 20 games (19 MiL, 1 ML) at second base (and that ML appearance was a one inning “stint”). Not only is Nunez a shortstop and not a second baseman, but even if he was, he’s not even the best 2B prospect in his own system, let alone the 9th best in baseball. For the record, I think David Adams is the Yankees’ best 2B prospect.

There was a lot of complaining about Brian Cashman on the radio yesterday. Yeah, I know, I should shut it off. But, I’m in a (terrible) rental car so I don’t have my tape-deck aided iPod to play so I’m forced to listen to the radio. Anyway, personalities on both WFAN and ESPN were bemoaning Brian Cashman and his situation. While they didn’t exactly chastise him, they were at least a bit critical of his handling of the Derek Jeter situation, especially the part when Cash told Jeter to test the market and his comment yesterday about Jeter in the outfield. Cashman should’ve told Jeter to test the market and if in his shoes, I would’ve done the exact same thing. As for Jeter in the outfield, well, that makes some sense considering Jeter’s age. I don’t think he could handle center field, but that’s a conversation for another time.

Anyone who thinks that comment was a “shot at Jeter” is stretching at least a little bit. While it’s not exactly flattering to the Captain, it’s not exactly against common sense either. If there was an opening somewhere, I think we could be discussing Jeter moving off of SS NOW rather than later. It makes sense that a guy who’s a below average shortstop now will have to move off the position when he’s older.

Lastly, I just want to touch on something that was in the comments of an article I wrote. The comment was about a user being against the Granderson trade when it went down and being more against it now, especially considering the fifth starter’s situation. I’ll grant the user the pre/during trade hesitations (though I’ll later address them), but looking back and saying it was a bad deal because of the current fifth starter situation is a bit of hindsightism.

At the time of the trade, Kennedy had no spot on the team and the Yankees had a need in center field. They could’ve used Austin Jackson but Curtis Granderson was, is, and probably will be the better player going forward. 2010 may not have been perfect for Granderson, but he was just as valuable as Jackson in a lot less time. Going forward, I highly doubt that Jackson’s bat will match Granderson’s. That trade was a good deal at the time and unless Granderson gets hurt very badly, it will continue to be a very good trade. I’d do it every time, especially for that price. For the record, I’d do the Vazquez trade every time, too.

Jan 242011

We pretty much know what the 25 man roster is going to be at this point, so let’s see what the different lineups will be. Using the latest round of CAIRO Projections from RLYW.net, I’ll put the player’s projected wOBA vs. RHP/LHP next to his name/position.

These projections are a combination of what I think the lineups WILL be:

vs. RHP

1. Jeter, SS .334
2. Swisher, RF .353
3. Teixeira, 1B .381
4. Rodriguez, 3B .382
5. Cano, 2B .379
6. Posada, DH .352
7. Granderson, CF .363
8. Martin, C .333
9. Gardner, LF .336

So against RHP, everyone projects to be at least average, with the middle of the lineup solidly above that mark. The median wOBA is .353. Let’s see what they could do versus LHP; there are a few ways this could go.

Option 1 vs. LHP (Granderson sits, Gardner to CF, Jones to LF)

1. Jeter, SS .364
2. Swisher, RF .367
3. Teixeira, 1B .393
4. Rodriguez, 3B .392
5. Cano, 2B .354
6. Posada, C .358
7. Jones, LF .332
8. Martin, C .357
9. Gardner, CF .310

The median wOBA here is .358. That’s not much of a change from the vs. RHP lineup, but it’s still a slight uptick. If we replace Gardner with Curtis Granderson (and his .297 projected wOBA vs. LHP), the median wOBA stays the same, since his would then be the lowest wOBA instead of Gardner’s. So, quickly, that tells us no matter which lefty outfielder is replaced, there won’t be much of a difference in the lineup. I suspect Joe Girardi will just keep the hot hand in there until he cools. All three outfielders in that shuffle–Granderson, Gardner, and Jones, are good enough at what they do that neither will leave an extraordinarily huge hole when absent from the lineup.

Just about everyone, myself included, sees a bounce back for Derek Jeter. After all, how could we not? Last year was the worst year of his career and there’s almost no way he can be that bad again. I wonder, though, if his slide continues, will Girardi pull him from the leadoff spot? If he does, who takes his place? I say it’s one of Gardner or Swisher. Gardner could work because he sees a ton of pitches, walks, and can steal bases. Swisher could take it because he’s a switch hitter with no drastic platoon split and provides a little more power, which would be useful for those batting behind him. He does strike out a bit more, though, but he showed in 2010 that he can cut back on them.

The rest of the lineup is just fine if you ask me. You could switch Tex/A-Rod if you wanted to, but the difference would probably be negligible. If anything, this lineup gives me confidence that the Yankees can still make the playoffs. Any lineup that features those hitters has more than a puncher’s chance at making it to October. Making it through October with that (current) pitching staff would be a challenge, but this team can definitely make it there. And once you’re there, anything can happen.

Jan 032011

A new year is upon us and soon, a new baseball season will be upon us. We’re going to have expectations with certain players, as we always do. We have to think of realistic expectations, though. For this post, I’m going to look at each player still on the Yankees from the 2010 team, examine his 2010 wOBA and see if that’s a reasonable expectation for 2011.

Robinson Cano, .389 wOBA

Last year was a career year for Robinson. He ripped the cover off the ball and everything seemed to click for him on offense. He ripped righties and lambasted lefties. He hit for a high average. He hit for power. Expecting another year like that would be unfair, but, Cano is in his age-based-prime and clearly has an incredible talent for hitting. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a .389 wOBA from him again. Somewhere in the .375-.385 range seems right for Robinson.

Nick Swisher, .377 wOBA

Cutting the fat, yeah, I think this is definitely do-able. His 2009 wOBA was .375, just two points off of last year’s career high mark. He had basically the same year production-wise, he just did it differently. I’m confident that Swisher can definitely put up a .370+ woBA again in 2011. What I’m not sure of is if it will look more like 2009 with a lot of walks and a lot of power or if it will look like 2010, with similar-but-slightly-diminished-power and a higher average.

Mark Teixeira, .367 wOBA

I have no problem saying this: Mark Teixeira will have a wOBA higher than .367 in 2011.

Alex Rodriguez, .363 wOBA

I have no problem saying this: Alex Rodriguez will have a wOBA higher than .363 in 2011.

Brett Gardner, .358 wOBA

This is the most interesting case. Obviously, Gardner proved himself in 2010. He survived the entire year and hit much better than we all expected him to. His super-plus defense made him a huge value for the team . Part of me thinks that Gardner can do it again. Part of me doesn’t. If I’m setting an over/under for Gardner’s wOBA, I’m going to say .340.

Jorge Posada, .357 wOBA

Posada’s another catch-22 of sorts. In one way, we should expect equal or worse performance from Posada in 2011 because he’s getting old. Older players, especially catchers, tend not to hit at .357 wOBAs with regularity. On the other hand, Posada is a good hitter who’s stayed above average in terms of offense for a while. As a full time DH, he’ll be without the physical burden of catching. Because of that, we could see a rise in offense from Jorge. I think .357 is a fair over/under and I think Jorge will be over. I may be in the minority there.

Curtis Granderson, .346 wOBA

Curtis Granderson’s season was a bit odd, wasn’t it? There were some good things–10% walk rate, .221 IsoP–but some bad things as well (most of the season against LHP). All together, it added up to an above average, but not spectacular, .346 wOBA. Call me an optimist, but Granderson will out do that .346 wOBA. I’ll put the over/under at .355 and take the over.

Derek Jeter, .320 wOBA

I have no problem saying this: Derek Jeter will have a higher wOBA than .320 in 2011. Jeter may be getting older and 2010 may’ve been a career worst year, but there’s no way he can hit that poorly again. At least, I hope there’s no way he can hit that poorly again.

Francisco Cervelli, .315 wOBA

This is fair and I expect him to do that again. If he does, with less playing time, I’ll be happy.

Russell Martin, .306 wOBA

His 2009 wOBA was .307 after a .351 wOBA in 2008. Martin’s bat seems to be trending downwards, which is troubling. Despite a super low wOBA though, he was able to put up over 2 fWAR in 2010, thanks to his defense. In the last two years, Martin has had a low BABIP despite relatively high LD%s, so maybe 2011 is when he gets a BABIP rebound. That would definitely cause a wOBA rebound. Given the last two years, I think we should expect around a .310-.315 wOBA for Martin, but he could easily out perform that.

Ramiro Pena, .233 wOBA

Same as Cervelli.

We’re going to play the over/under game with Curtis Granderson, whom the Yankees acquired a year ago yesterday. I’ll look at what Curtis did in 2010 and see if it went over or under his career mark. Using the FanGraphs Dashboard we’ll go left to right.

BB%
2010: 10.0%
Career: 9.6%
Result: Over

K%
2010: 24.9%
Career: 24.1%
Result: Over

IsoP
2010: .221
Career: .213
Result: Over

BABIP
2010: .277
Career: .314
Result: Under

AVG/OBP/SLG
2010: .247/.324/.468
Career: .268/.341/.481
Result: Under/Under/Under

IsoD (not on FG)
2010: .077
Career: .073
Result: Over

wOBA
2010: .346
Career: .357
Result: Under

wRC+
2010: 115
Career: 118
Result: Under

So there’s an interesting dichotomy here. Looking at his peripherals–IsoP, IsoD, BB%–we would assume that Curtis had a fantastic season. They were all above his career norms. To a certain extent, Curtis Granderson did have a successful 2010 (he racked up 3.6 fWAR). But, the triple slash looks a bit disappointing and considering the IsoP/D, we probably could’ve expected a higher wOBA and wRC+. The good peripherals represented by the walks and the power didn’t translate into the triple slash. The one culprit we can see here is BABIP. But, man cannot analyze on one BABIP alone, so let’s contextualize a bit.

Granderson’s career BABIP is .314, but in 2010 it was .277. How much differently did he hit the ball in 2010 than in the rest of his career?

The first batted ball number we look at for BABIP is always LD%. Granderson’s got a 20.6% career line drive rate, which is solid. In 2010, it wasn’t far off from that at 19.9%. That change is more or less minimal. Next, let’s go to GB and FB rates. Here is where we see some spikes for Curtis.

Despite an IFFB% of 7.2–under his carer mark of 7.8%–Granderson’s overall fly ball rate was up to 47.2%, almost 4% up from his career rate of 43.6. Here it’s worth noting that Granderson’s HR/FB%, 14.5%, was actually the second highest of his career. So it seems like fly balls weren’t much of an issue for Curtis. He was hitting them out of the infield and hitting them hard. What about grounders?

When I first saw his 33% GB mark for 2010 up against his 29.5% mark in 2009, I thought “Okay, that could be to blame.” However, that’s still below his career mark of 35.8%. Is it possible that we can just blame this one on poor BABIP luck overall?

I don’t love doing that, but there are really no wild swings apparent in the 2010 version of Granderson. He had really low lows and really high highs, but the overall picture suggests nothing crazy in his batted ball profile.

The increased strikeout rate likely comes from a 25% OOZ, which is the highest of Granderson’s career. This comes with the lowest percentage (44) of pitches seen in the zone for Curtis. It appears that pitchers are willing to make Granderson get himself out. If he can bring his OOZ back to his career norms while maintaining a similar contact profile–as well as the ability to draw walks at a 9%+ rate–he’ll have an even more successful 2011.

Nov 222010

Via Steve Adams at MLBTR, we’ve heard that five teams are interested in Wily Mo Pena. The Yankees originally signed him as an amateur free agent, then traded him away.

As Steve said, he had a strong finish in 2010 in AAA Portland and offers minimal risk. Chances are, he could be had on a minor league deal, just like Marcus Thames in 2011. So, is he worth an offer? Let’s take a look.

Pena hasn’t played in the Majors since an awful 64 game stint with the Nationals in 2008. He had a .509 OPS in 206 PAs. The year before, he split time between Boston (.675 OPS) and Washington (.855 OPS). For his career, Pena’s got a .447 SLG (.194 IsoP) but a .307 OBP (.054 IsoD, 5.87 unintentional walk rate). His career actually looks a lot like Marcus Thames’s before Marcus came back to the Yankees in 2010. Before coming to New York this past season, Thames had a career line of .243/.306/.491 (.248 IsoP, .063 IsoD, 7.74 uBB%).

If we’re imagining Pena on the Yankees, though, we’d know that it would probably be in Thames’s intended role of lefty-masher. Let’s see what Wily’s done against lefties in his career.

Like Thames, Pena looks a little better against lefties. He’s got a .340 OBP against them to go along with a .457 SLG (.344 wOBA). If he could replicate that career line in 2011, I’d be happy.

There’s also the issue of fielding. As we all know, Marcus Thames is essentially a statue in left field. Luckily, he was mostly DHing by the end of the year. Pena’s not fantastic out there (-21.8 UZR in the OF since 2002, so that’s about -3.1 per season). However, he wouldn’t be playing all that much and a -3.1 UZR is acceptable for a part time player.

Based on all of that, I think Pena would be worth looking at again. He’s not a butcher in the field and can hit lefties well. He’s also not a complete loss against righties; his rate stats are “meh” but he does have a .202 IsoP against them, so if he runs into the right pitch from a non-southpaw, he can do some damage. While Brett Gardner held his own against lefties and Curtis Granderson improved slightly against them at the end of 2010, the Yankees should still try to have a strong right handed hitter on the bench.

Oct 262010

As I like to do every season, I’m going to compare the Yankee players’ theoretical fWAR dollars to their actual salaries and see which players gave the Yankees the most value and which players drained the most money. We’ll do batters today and pitchers tomorrow.

We’ll do the list in WAR order (nine highest), then we’ll sum it up at the end.

1. Robinson Cano, 6.4 fWAR worth $25.5MM. Salary: $9MM. Value: +$16.5MM
2. Brett Gardner, 5.4 fWAR worth $21.6 MM. Salary: $0.425MM. Value: +$21.175MM
3. Nick Swisher, 4.1 fWAR worth $16.4MM. Salary: $6.75MM. Value: +$9.65MM.
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3.9 fWAR worth $15.3MM. Salary: $32MM. Value: -$16.7MM.
5. Curtis Granderson, 3.6 fWAR worth $14.3MM. Salary: $5.5MM. Value: +$8.8MM.
6. Mark Teixeira, 3.5 fWAR worth $14.00MM. Salary: $20MM. Value: -6.00MM.
7. Derek Jeter, 2.5 fWAR worth $9.8MM. Salary: $21MM. Value: -$11.2MM
8. Jorge Posada, 2.4 fWAR worth $9.7MM. Salary: $13.1MM. Value: -$3.3MM.
9. Francisco Cervelli, 1.1 fWAR worth $4.4MM. Salary: $0.418MM. Value: +$3.82MM

Value Ranks:
1. Gardner
2. Cano
3. Swisher
4. Granderson
5. Cervelli
6. Posada
7. Teixeira
8. Jeter
9. Rodriguez

Italics means negative value.

This list should really surprise no one. The Yankees’ high priced, older talent had a bad collective 2010. Brett Gardner had what will likely be his career year while making just over the league minimum, so of course he’s going to return great value. And despite our frustrations with him, Frankie Cervelli did give the Yankees a bit of value this year. I think we’ll see the Melky Plan with Francisco: hang on to him while he’s cheap, then jettison him when he starts hitting arbitration and starts making too much money.

It also turns out that the Granderson deal was not some horrid thing that should’ve been undone. Granderson is relatively cheap for next year ($8.25) but goes up a bit in 2012 and ’13 ($10, $13 option) so granting a rebound year, he should return good value next year as well.

Nick Swisher makes only $9.75 next year so assuming he can repeat this year–or do something between 2010 and 2009–he’ll probably return value again, too.

As for the guys in the red, Teixeira is the only most likely to bounce back, considering his relatively young age compared to Jeter and Rodriguez and Posada. He also plays the least physically demanding position of the three and had a down year with the bat. I don’t think we’ll see the aforementioned trio in the black unless they have monster years.

Check back tomorrow when we look at the pitchers, starters and relievers.

grandy

And if you don’t know, now you know! Photo courtesy of AP and daylife.com

As the buzz from the 2009 World Series wore off and Yankee fans began to look to the next season of baseball, Ninja-in-Chief and General Manager Brian Cashman struck with precision and speed and dealt longtime Yankee prospects CF Austin Jackson and RHP Ian Kennedy, along with LHP reliever Phil Coke to the Arizona Diamondbacks and Detroit Tigers as a part of a three-way deal that brought CF Curtis Granderson to the Yankees.  After watching Melky Cabrera hack his way through a full season and without knowing what to expect from Brett Gardner, most fans rejoiced.  The Yankees were getting a real life centerfielder!  And not an old one!  And he wasn’t just a good arm in the outfield, he could actually get hits!

In four full seasons with the Tigers, Granderson averaged 23.5 home runs per year and was the owner of a .273/.346/.484 batting line over that time.  However, his career had been something of a rollercoaster.  His 2009 campaign with Detroit had been something of a disappointment.  2007 was the high-water mark, as a .360 BABIP led him to a .302/.360/.552 line and his single-season 14.3 UZR combined to make him worth 7.4 fWAR on the year.  The next year was a bit of a downer, and as his BABIP dropped some 45 points his batting line fell to .280/.365/.494.  Oddly, his UZR swung wildly to -11.3, providing yet another good example of the vagaries of single-season UZR (and, by extension, WAR).  His next season with Detroit would prove to be his worst and his last.  His BABIP fell another 40 points and his line dropped down to .249/.327/.453.  For a guy who had gotten on base at a 36% clip in the past, this was a fairly decent sized drop off.  The odd part was that Granderson wasn’t past the aging curve.  28 years old is well within the range of the peak level of physical performance for position players, so it wasn’t as if he was simply slowing down.  On the other hand, Granderson had always been a player with a very high strike out rate (24% on his career), and his on-base percentage had seemingly been fueled by a high BABIP throughout his career, rather than by taking plenty of walks (BB% only 9.5%).  Despite that, some looked at his batted ball data and concluded that Granderson was due for a rebound in 2010.  After all, his line-drive percentage had stayed relatively static.  He had even dropped his ground ball percentage in 2009, upping his fly-ball percentage, and despite the fact that his IFFB percentage had increased it seemed to the naked eye that Granderson would be a good bet to bounce back to something like .275/.355/.470.  Of course, there were troubling signs as well.  Granderson has always hit righties better than lefties, but he fared particularly awfully against lefties in 2009 with a .484 OPS.  He was a question mark, but a player with considerable upside.

As the 2010 season got underway, it seemed that 2010 was going to look more like 2009 than 2008 or 2007.  Things were not going well for Granderson.  In the first month of the year he put up a line of .225/.311/.375 with only 2 home runs.  Of course, the sample size was small and so when Granderson went down with a groin injury on May 1st fans were still hopeful that the Granderson bounceback year would get underway when he returned.  Nearly four weeks later he came back and the early results were good.  In a homestand against the Indians and the Orioles he posted an OPS of 1.190 and homered once.  He was never able to find a consistent rhythm, though, and when he headed into the All-Star Break his post-injury line stood at .248/.308/.428, leaving him with a first half line of .240/.309/.409.  Meanwhile, Austin Jackson had gotten off to a scorching hot start with the Tigers, cruising to a .300/.354/.403 line fueled mostly by good fortune on balls in play.  Meanwhile in Arizona Ian Kennedy had already thrown 111.1 innings of 4.12 ERA ball with a K/9 of 8.08 and a K/BB ratio of 2.38.  Had the Yankees made a big mistake?

The first part of the second half offered no relief.  Up to and including the Boston series on August 7-9, Granderson hit a meager .240/.301/.440, an improvement in power but very unimpressive overall for someone making X dollars.  At that point, Granderson approached Kevin Long and asked for help with his swing.  As the Yankees traveled to Texas for a two-game series starting on Monday, Granderson got some time off.  He appeared in both games as a pinch-runner, but spent most of the games on the bench and working with Long to try to regain some of his past success.  When he returned, Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues noted that Granderson had made a few very slight alterations to his stance: lowering his hands and removing some of the extraneous movement.

Whether it was that or some magic pixie dust that Long sprinkled over Granderson, it worked.  It worked so well that Granderson went on a tear.  It worked so well that Axisa created the Twitter hashtag #cured to refer to every Granderson success.  It worked so well that in the 179 PAs Granderson has had since his little Kevin Long siesta he’s hitting .275/.362/.588 with, wait for it, 14 home runs.  It’s been an astoundingly hot 45 game stretch for Granderson, and he’s raised his season line all the way up to .249/.325/.470 with a wOBA of .348, which is higher than his .340 mark in 2009.

Granderson was one of the biggest acquisitions the Yankees made this offseason, but the Yankees have relied on players other than him in 2010.  The batting order is littered with guys who  get on-base  and hit with power like it’s going out of style: Berkman, Swisher, Teixeira, Cano, Rodriguez and Posada.  There’s the familiar Jeter at the top of the order and the speedy OBP-machine and P/PA monster Gardner at the bottom.  But nestled in there in the seven or eight hole in the linup is Curtis Granderson.  He’s heating up and turning into a very valuable weapon, one with the potential to do serious damage to opposing pitchers in this year’s playoffs.  It’s a no-brainer to name him my playoff sleeper.

Apologies for the reference, but this seems like an appropriate title on this September 21st.  If I had any photoshopping skill whatsoever, you would probably be looking at a photoshop of Curtis Granderson as a member of Earth Wind and Fire.  We can all be thankful that we are not.

We can also be thankful for Curtis Granderson’s September performance, as he has been one of the bright spots in an otherwise frustrating month full of tough losses, interesting bullpen usage, and an irritating inability to hit with runners on base.  When healthy, Granderson has been fairly consistent but not spectacular at the plate, posting OPS’s around .750 in June, July, and August.  While not a horrible performance, we expected better from Granderson, as did the Yankees, when they included now-Rookie of the Year candidate Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy in a deal to acquire the 29 year-old centerfielder.

In September, Granderson has posted a .290/.397/.645 line with 6 homers, good for a 1.042 OPS and a .449 wOBA.  A closer look at the numbers could give us a better idea of whether there has been genuine improvement in Granderson this month, or if we could expect a regression (I recognize that an 18-game September sample is not incredibly significant, but bear with me anyway).  Going to the cliched evaluation of luck, BABIP, we can see that Granderson’s September BABIP of .279 is not particularly high, especially considering he had a .310 BABIP in the month of August, and a .270 in June.  Granderson’s batted ball data (from Fangraphs) also does not appear to show a major change, and his line drive percentage is actually lower in September than it was in July or August.  His HR/FB percentage of 25% in September looks a little fluky, so some regression in power could be in order.

Probably the biggest stride that Granderson has made in September is in the arena of plate discipline.  Through 18 games in September, Granderson has walked 11 times, impressive considering his highest monthly total prior to September was 10 in August.  The increased walk rate has also been accompanied by a decrease in strikeout rate, and his 11:13 bb:k ratio is very strong.  However, Grandy’s pitches/plate appearance ratio appears similar to to previous months (around 4 pitches/PA), so he does not appear to be taking more pitches.  What does this mean?  Perhaps he is making better decisions on which pitches to take and which ones to swing at.

What do these data mean for Granderson?  I recognize the small sample, and it is possible that maybe he’s simply facing weaker pitching in September (though considering the Yankees’ September opponents, I am skeptical).  If you’re a believer in the magic of Kevin Long, one could attribute the improvement to the work that Long did with Granderson recently.  It does appear that Granderson has been making better quality contact and has been swinging at better pitches.  It is possible that this is just a hot streak in a short sample, so we will have to continue following Granderson’s performance to see if he is able to sustain his improvements.  If Granderson is able to continue his hot streak going into the postseason, it will be interesting to see if this has any effect on his lineup placement in playoff games.  I imagine he will still hit 8th against lefties, but maybe against righties Girardi will try him higher in the order.  Regardless, if Granderson can keep this up, the Yankee lineup going into the postseason will be that much longer and more dangerous.

Sep 142010

Um, yeah. About that game last night…

First, I feel bad for CC Sabathia. He pitched incredibly. I didn’t see most of the game because I was at class but what I did see from him was great. He pitched the way he always does and deserved better than a no decision. To be fair, David Price pitched just as well and the same could be said for him. Sadly, what happened after both men exited might just garner more attention.

Let’s start with Brett Gardner. Seriously, dude? What the hell were you thinking? There is absolutely no defense for his running mistake. Moving from second to third with two outs when you’re the go ahead run offers basically no advantage. The only way Gardner should even thinking of moving up on that play is if there’s a balk, wild pitch, or passed ball. Otherwise, stealing shouldn’t even enter his head. Gardner is usually on his own, so I’ll place the blame on him, but if that call came from the bench then that’s a huge brain fart by the coaching staff. Even if Gardner had made it to third safely–which he kind of almost did–that’s still a bad play. There is no need to take that risk, considering an out wouldn’t net a run. Gardner is fast enough to score from second. Again, moving to third there gives the Yankees no big boost.

Then there’s the fact that Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre ended up pitching in this game. I’ll grant Gaudin a little leeway since he did get out of the mess he created. Still, though, he should not have been in. The same goes for Mitre, but apparently not all of Girardi’s relievers were available tonight. In that case, though, he should’ve gone to Wood for more than one inning and to Logan for more than one batter.

Ultimately, the blame does fall on Sergio Mitre for giving up a home run to Reid Brignac, but it’s annoying that he was even in that position. Still, though, that wasn’t my least favorite thing about this game, especially considering there were some relievers who were not available. The thing that upset me most last night was the Curtis Granderson sacrifice bunt. Shall I list the reasons why? Well I don’t see why not.

1. I hate bunting.
2. Curtis Granderson has a .238 IsoP and a .351 wOBA against right handers in 2010.
3. Curtis Granderson has a .376 career wOBA against right handers.
4. I hate bunting.
5. Colin Curtis was the on deck batter.

Those are all good reasons NOT to bunt in that situation, yet Joe Girardi still called for the bunt. The worst reason is number five. There is no way ANYONE on the Yankees–except maybe Ramiro Pena–should be bunting to get to Colin Curtis. To make matters worse, Curtis swung at the first pitch and flew out to right field, meaning Derek Jeter wold have to get a hit for the run to score. That’s a tough job to put on anyone, let a lone a guy who’s been struggling like Jeter has.

Last night sucked. But, the best thing about baseball is that the Yankees get a chance to wipe the taste out of their mouths and our mouths in just a few hours. Hopefully, we see some better managing and smarter baseball by the men in pinstripes.

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Aug 312010

One of the frequent cautions we hear when the Yankees bring in a left handed hitter is brought to the Yankees is that he will get pull happy playing in Yankee Stadium. I can’t recall if this was exactly the case with Curtis Granderson, but I’m sure at least a few people brought it up. Let’s see what we can dig up in the Spray Charts.

Here’s Curtis’s spray chart from 2009. Obviously, this has a bigger sample because it encompasses a full season without time surrendered to the disabled list.

CG 2009 Spray Chart

There, we see a fair amount of hits to left and center field, but most of the hits seem to be concentrated to the right side of the field. Via FanGraphs, let’s look at his splits in terms of hit direction. In 2009, Granderson had a total of 157 hits. 19 went to left (12.1%), 39 to center (24.84), and 99 to right (63.06). We can see that a pretty wide majority of of Granderson’s hits landed in right in 2009. Let’s check out 2010.

CG 2010 Spray Chart

Just at first glance, the hits look a little more evenly spread. And, lately, we’ve been seeing Granderson drive the ball to the opposite field more, mostly after his work with Kevin Long. Thus far, Curtis has 82 his on the season. Nine to left (10.98%), 28 to center (34.15), and 51 to right field (32.48). So, it would appear that Granderson has not been pull happy at all and has adjusted his game to go back up the middle and the other way a little more.

How has this happened? Let’s look at the pitches Curtis has swung at to determine this. 2009 will be first with 2010 to follow.

The latter chart is less cluttered because of a shorter time frame/smaller sample size, but we can see that it appears Curtis is seeing fewer pitches on the inner part of the plate. As good hitters do, Granderson is taking what’s given to him and hitting the ball to left and center.

So, no, Curtis Granderson has not gotten pull happy since joining the Yankees. Instead, he’s adjusted his approach based on the pitches he’s seen–and his struggles in the middle of the season–to become a more “widespread,” so to speak, hitter.

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