With the offseason slowly drawing to a close, it looks like the Yankees were in fact serious about maintaining a modicum of fiscal responsibility. However, some have suggested that Brian Chasman is just saving his bullets for next offseason, when there is a class of free agents that Cashman has previously professed admiration for. Dayn Perry runs through the big names, and I would like to highlight the players I think the Yankees would have interest in:
1. Joe Mauer, C
Opening Day 2011 Age: 282. Cliff Lee, LHS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 323. Brandon Webb, RHS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 324. Derek Jeter, SS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 37
These four players make up the top tier of talent, and at least one of them (Jeter) is almost certain to be in pinstripes in 2011. I strongly believe Mauer will sign in Minnesota, as their new ballpark and Mauer’s hometown roots makes this a perfect marriage. Regarding Webb, his recent shoulder injuries make him a significant risk. Although he will likely be cheaper than Lee and his groundball ways make him a solid fit for Yankee Stadium, I would stay away from him. Lee is the better option, and I think that the Yankees will be all-in on Cliff to take the rotation spot vacated by either Andy Pettitte or Javy Vazquez. I could see the Yankees offering Lee 5 years at 19 million per year. Jeter will likely get a similar salary for a reduced number of years. 4 years and 75-80 million will get it done.
5. Carl Crawford, OF
Opening Day 2011 Age: 296. Jayson Werth, OF
Opening Day 2011 Age: 328. Josh Beckett, RHS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 31Beckett is good, but let’s be objective: He’s not an ace on most staffs. Beckett’s career ERA of 3.79 is solid enough, but just three times in his career has he managed at least 200 innings in a season. It’s also worth noting that since Beckett arrived in Boston and supposedly achieved “ace-dom,” his ERA is 4.05. That’s a tick or two better than the league average, but the numbers simply don’t rise to the level of Beckett’s reputation. That said, if you’re looking for a No. 2 man, then Beckett is a reasonable choice. Just be sure pay him like a No. 2 man. Lee and a healthy Webb are both significantly better.
10. Adam Dunn, OF/DH
Opening Day 2011 Age: 31
This next tier includes a number of players who might be good fits in NY but have certain flaws that make their acquisition entirely dependent on the market. Dunn would be a bargain on a deal similar to the one he signed with Washington, as he would fit perfectly in Yankees Stadium and 2 years, 20 million would likely be less than his actual value. Similarly, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth are both versatile players who add a lot both offensively and defensively. However, I would not touch either player if they required a deal more than 4 years, and even then the AAV should not exceed 14M a year. I hate Beckett, and added Perry’s note on him because it illustrates my contention that Josh is slightly overrated. That said, if the market for him bottoms out due to injury concerns and outsized demands, expect Brian Cashman to kick the tires on him.
11. Mariano Rivera
12. Manny Ramirez
13. Huston Street
15. Javier Vazquez
16. Rafael Soriano
If Javy Vazquez has a very strong year, I could see the Yankees attempting to sign the workhorse to a long term deal. However, if he is just solid, he will likely get a 3 year deal worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 million, a price the Yankees should shy away from. I could see the Yankees entering the 2011 season with Sabathia, Burnett, Hughes, Chamberlain, and either Andy Pettitte or a free agent like Cliff Lee in the rotation. Regarding the bullpen, if Mariano continues to act like a vampire, the Yankees will have to shell out some dough to sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal, depending on his preference. No matter what happens with Mo, I could see the Yankees being in the market for a top reliever, so as to allow both Joba and Hughes to start. If so, Street and Soriano would both be good fits. Finally, I have long advocated bringing in Manny, but unless he is asking for a 1 year deal for 10 million or less, I cannot see Cash biting.
Photo Credit: ESPN.com
This off season, we’ve heard the oft-repeated line that ‘next year’s FA class is better’ and that it makes sense to sit back this season, to have money available for the bumper crop of star players available next year. But is that true? Are the players who will become available good fits for the Yanks and/or are they the types of players they’re likely to sign?
MLBTR produces an advanced Free Agent list every year, and has one for the class of 2011. Right off the bat, I’m not going to consider anyone who has a team option of any kind. If the Cards don’t exercise Albert Pujols for 16 mil with a 5 mil buyout, he must be on crutches and of no use to any team. However, Player options are fair game. If the economy improves at all (which it should) most of those are likely to be exercised. Let’s also dispose of three Yankees up front. Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera will all be Yankees as long as they are able to play Baseball, so while their contracts may be expiring, they’re not typical free agents. According to Cots, the 2011 payroll starts out at 118 mil, so there figures to be plenty of room to bring back Jeter and Mo and still be active in the FA market. The Yanks figure to have a need in the Outfield, a starting pitcher, and perhaps a Lefty reliever. Catcher is an area to look at as well, Jorge Posada will be 39 heading into 2011 and is a major candidate to regress offensively this coming season, which will make his subpar defense even harder to stomach. On to the list:
Catchers
Henry Blanco (39)
John Buck (30)
Ramon Castro (35)
Raul Chavez (38)
Ramon Hernandez (35) – option vests with 120 games played
Gerald Laird (31)
Jason LaRue (37)
Victor Martinez (32)
Joe Mauer (28)
Chad Moeller (36)
A.J. Pierzynski (34)
David Ross (34)
Jason Varitek (39)
Gregg Zaun (40) – $2.25MM club option with a $250K buyoutLeft fielders
Eric Byrnes (35)
Carl Crawford (29)
David DeJesus (31) – $6MM club option with a $500K buyout
Willie Harris (33)
Jason Kubel (29) – $5.25MM club option with a $350K buyout
Jason Michaels (35)
Manny Ramirez (39)Center fielders
Willie Bloomquist (33)
Coco Crisp (31) – $5.75MM option with a $575K buyout
Jody Gerut (33)
Willie Harris (33)
Andruw Jones (34)
Mark Kotsay (35)
Jason Michaels (35)
Corey Patterson (31)
Willy Taveras (29)Right fielders
Willie Bloomquist (33)
Jose Guillen (35)
Brad Hawpe (32) – $10MM club option with a $500K buyout
Gabe Kapler (35)
Magglio Ordonez (37) – $15MM club option vests with 135 starts or 540 plate appearances in 2010
Jayson Werth (32)Starting pitchers
Bronson Arroyo (34) – $11MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Josh Beckett (31)
Joe Blanton (30)
Jeremy Bonderman (28)
Dave Bush (31)
Matt Cain (26) – $6.25MM vesting option
Kevin Correia (30)
Jorge De La Rosa (30)
Justin Duchscherer (33)
Jeff Francis (29) – $7MM club option
Freddy Garcia (35)
Chad Gaudin (28)
Rich Harden (29) – $11MM mutual option with $1MM buyout
Aaron Harang (33) – $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Hiroki Kuroda (36)
Cliff Lee (32)
Ted Lilly (35)
Rodrigo Lopez (35)
Kevin Millwood (36)
Sergio Mitre (30)
Brian Moehler (39)
Jamie Moyer (48)
Carl Pavano (35)
Brad Penny (33)
Andy Pettitte (39)
Nate Robertson (33)
Jeff Suppan (36) – $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Koji Uehara (36)
Javier Vazquez (34)
Brandon Webb (32)
Jake Westbrook (33)
Dontrelle Willis (29)
Chris Young (32) – $8.5MM club optionLeft-handed relievers
Jeremy Affeldt (32)
Bruce Chen (34)
Randy Choate (35)
Pedro Feliciano (34)
Trever Miller (38) – $2MM option vests with 45 games in 2010
Darren Oliver (40) – vesting option
Dennys Reyes (34)
Arthur Rhodes (41)
J.C. Romero (35) – $4.5MM club option with a $250K buyout
Bobby Seay (33)
Matt Thornton (34) - $3MM club option with a $250K buyout
A few quick observations. It’s amazing how ancient that Lefty Reliever list is, but we all know the old line about Lefties being able to find jobs in Baseball. Of that list, Jeremy Affeldt is one pitcher I could see the Yanks targeting, with Matt Thorton and Pedro Fleiciano as possibilities as well. Of course, Type A status and length of deal will be huge factors when dealing with Relievers of any kind. But given Damaso Marte’s inconsistency in pinstripes, Jeremy Bleich’s sub-par 2009 campaign and how far away Manny Banuelos and Wilkins De La Rosa are from MLB action, you can’t rule out a FA signing.
In the starting pitcher category, Cliff Lee stands out on that list as a perfect fit. AL pitcher with good peripherals who’s had post season success, the only thing you’d be worried about is length of deal at age 32. I don’t see the Yanks targeting Josh Beckett, even as a Plan B. They’re keenly aware of how much trouble the Red Sox have had keeping him on the field throughout his career, and at age 31 injuries begin to pile up, especially for a two-pitch power pitcher like him. If Josh couldn’t stay healthy in his 20s, you’d be foolish to think he’ll get better in his 30s. I think the Yanks will have two openings to fill, with Javy Vasquez in his final year and Andy Pettitte at age 39, though I wouldn’t rule out signing (the much traveled) Vasquez to an extension, assuming he has a good 2010 season in the Bronx. We all love Andy, but he barely got through this past season and was admittedly gassed in October. Another year of wear and tear on that arm at his age could be the tipping point past the point of effectiveness. This is why it’s a make or break year for BOTH Joba and Hughes. Rotation spots will be waiting for both of them in 2011 if they prove they can handle it this year, although the same could be said for the Closer’s role as Mariano moves well past his 41st birthday. Brandon Webb is very much a dark horse candidate, he has to prove he’s healthy before the Yanks would spend a dime on him, and shoulder injuries often signal the end for many pitchers.
In the outfield, I don’t see the Yanks targeting a 30 year old Carl Crawford. So much of his game is tied up in his speed, which figures to decline in his 30s. Also, I have long maintained that Brian Cashman will prefer to keep LF open as a landing spot for Derek Jeter and/or Alex Rodriguez. Jayson Werth makes more sense to me. A 5-win player who provides excellent power and defense, you can simply move Nick Swisher to LF and play Werth in Right. Swisher is signed through 2011, so you field the best OF we’ve had in years with Werth-Grandy-Swisher for one season and the LF landing spot is open for your aging stars afterward.
Finally, we come to Catcher. Joe Mauer is by far and away the star of the class, with Victor Martinez as another possibility. But I think the Twins will retain Mauer. He’s the face of the franchise, and with the Twins entering a new ballpark in 2010 they should have the revenue to keep him. They’ve already been discussing an extension, and the two sides don’t seem so far apart that they wont reach a deal eventually. I’ve always viewed V-Mart as more of a 1B than Catcher, so I suspect the Yanks will look to fill this area of need internally. Expect Jesus Montero to get some playing time in the Bronx in 2010, as the Yanks assess which direction they want to go.
From Brian Costa:
The Yankees won’t have to face Cliff Lee again until Game 5 of the World Series. The Phillies named Joe Blanton their Game 4 starter Friday, opting to use a fourth starter rather than bring Lee back on short rest.
Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said he was reluctant to have Lee pitch on just three days’ rest because he has never done it before in the majors.
“I don’t think he’s ready to go on three days’ rest,” Manuel said before the Phillies worked out at Citizens Bank Park. “That would be really pushing it, because he’s never done it before.”
Blanton, a right-hander, was 12-8 with a 4.05 ERA during the regular season. He has a 4.50 ERA in three appearances (one start) this postseason.
Blanton is not a terrible starter at all, and has some experience with American league lineups. He has terrible career numbers against the Yankees (8.18 ERA), but those represent a very small sample and are skewed by one awful start. That being said, I think Manuel is making a mistake here. Not only does this give the Yankees a major advantage in Game 4, it gives them the upper hand for a possible game 7. Game 5 would be Lee’s last start of the series, meaning the Yankees would get to face Pedro Martinez and Cole Hamels at home. While neither of those pitchers are slouches, they are most certainly not Cliff Lee. This is how it is likely to play out, assuming the Yankees use only three starters, courtesy of Rob Neyer:
Game 3: Pettitte vs. Hamels (advantage: Yankees)
Game 4: Sabathia vs. Blanton (Yankees)
Game 5: Burnett vs. Lee (Phillies)
Game 6: Pettitte vs. Martinez or Happ (Yankees)
Game 7: Sabathia vs. Hamels (Yankees)
If the Yankees happen to take Games 3 and 4, you might see Chad Gaudin in Game 5, with Game 6 going to Burnett and Game 7 to Sabathia, with Pettitte available in relief for both of those games.
I understand that Manuel is worried about wasting his greatest asset by using him in a manner that may sap his effectiveness. However, he is creating a situation where the Yankees can lose to Lee and even once to Hamels and still win the series. He would be better served by using Lee in Games 4 and 7, and pitching Blanton in Game 5 and Hamels/Martinez in Game 6. The Yankees just caught a break.
Cliff Lee, making it look easy
-What can you say about last night’s game? Cliff Lee was unhittable and made the Yanks look like little leaguers for most of the night. CC was fine, I’ll take 7 IP and 2 R every time he goes out there. One thing about Lee, the Yanks are going to kick themselves when they watch tape of their ABs. They had a few pitches they could have done damage with on just about every AB, but Lee mixed up his pitches so well and kept them off balance that they were betwixt and between all night. Expect them to take a different approach next time they face him.
-Phil Hughes has faced 27 batters in the playoffs and retired just 14 of them. The pressure of the playoffs has clearly gotten Hughes off his game. When he was taken out by Girardi last night, he was screaming into his glove in a tirade that was apparently directed at Home Plate Umpire Gerry Davis. Was he getting squeezed a bit? Sure, so was every pitcher here and there. But Phil’s acting like he has no margin for error, and his stuff is fine. It’s in his head. I always thought the reason Hughes struggled as a starter was he was simply trying too hard, and now I’m seeing the same tendencies with him as a reliever, after not seeing it since he moved to the bullpen.
-I liked Girardi getting a bunch of relievers into last nights game. The game was pretty much settled by the 8th, and it gave them a chance to get their feet wet in some World Series action. Most of them were bad, but I expect the opening night jitters. Get that out of the way, and now we can go play ball. Good move by Joe, should pay off later in the series. I hate to have these guys experience World Series jitters in a game we should win.
-Even in a snoozer like last night, the 2nd guessers found something to seize on. This time, it was leaving in Robertson (oh, the irony!) instead of going to Phil Coke to face Ibanez in the 8th inning. As usual, Girardi knows something his critics don’t. Dave Robertson has a reverse platoon split, meaning he’s more effective against Lefties than he is facing Righties. He’s been like that since he was in the minors, so its not just some statistical anomaly, it’s part of his profile as a pitcher. Try again, folks.
-Kudos to the umps for getting together and getting the Rollins DP correct last night. It took a little too long, but it shows we don’t need to turn the game upside down to get a few calls right.
-I wouldn’t get too upset over last nights loss. Going into the Series, I thought the Phillies HAD to have that game, or they could be facing a quick exit. Tonight’s pitching match up is Burnett vs Pedro Martinez (edge Yanks) and Saturday’s is Hamels (who’s been awful) facing Pettitte. I still think were in good shape, and still expect a long series.
Cliff Lee was traded this afternoon for the following package:
Triple-A right-hander Carlos Carrasco, Class A righty Jason Knapp, catcher Lou Marson — the likely heir apparent to Victor Martinez — and shortstop Jason Donald will be sent to Cleveland.
Philadelphia has 3 top 25 type prospects (Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, Michael Taylor) and one prospect pitching incredibly well in the majors (J.A. Happ), and gave up none in the deal for Lee and Ben Francisco. An equivalent package from the Yankees might be Austin Jackson, Austin Romine, Zach McCallister, and Dellin Betances. While Cliff Lee is not Roy Halladay’s equal, he is a front of the rotation starter signed cheaply through next season. What does this tell us about him?
It confirms what I have been saying for a while, and what Steve illustrated in this column:
So in concluding, the framework of a deal seems to include one top flight minor leaguer, surrounded by filler of various levels of floors and ceilings. Including more than that can contribute to getting you fired, just ask Bill Bavasi. A GM will do well if he brings back a good everyday player for a top flight pitcher, as many of the GM’s trading these pitchers failed to do so.
Media members like Jim Callis, Peter Abraham, and Michael Kay have been advocating packages that include two of Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Jesus Montero. These packages never include two players of that caliber (top 10 prospect types), and often do not have even one, as the Lee trade illustrates. Giving up two of those players would be a travesty. Thankfully, Brian Cashman is not that stupid.
MLBTR (via Dejan Kovacevic) is reporting that Ian Snell, along with Jack Wilson, has been traded to the Mariners for Ronny Cedeno, Jeff Clement (who never got enough playing time, in my opinion), Brett Lorin, Aaron Pribanic, and Nathan Adcock. I guess this means Ian Snell won’t be joining the Yankees and that they’ll have to look for pitching depth elsewhere (not that he was at the top of the list, of course). The trade is strange for Seattle, though. I thought that they were sellers? Hmmm….
UPDATE - It looks like Cliff Lee is headed to the Phillies.
According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees inquired about Cliff Lee, but were told by Mark Shapiro and Co. that they would have to “surrender Joba or Hughes plus more.” Now, I like Cliff Lee, however, the Yankees can’t trade Joba or Hughes because it would be counterproductive to their cause. The whole reason they’re looking for another arm, like Lee’s, is because they have lost Wang for an indefinite period and chose to go with Hughes in the bullpen—a move that helps their bullpen, but hurts their rotation depth. Such a trade would actually hurt the Yankees this season, rather than help them (it’s not happening). The same can be said if they try to trade for Roy Halladay. Currently, with Wang out, possibly until next year, they need all the arms they can get, and that includes Hughes and Joba. The severity of Wang’s injury makes them bulletproof.
In the end, the Indians will ask for the moon and stars for Lee—that’s what a team does when trading a valuable pitcher. But, unless they’re willing to accept a package built on the backs of minor-leaguers like Austin Jackson, then I doubt that they’ll be trading Cliff Lee to the Yankees anytime soon.
(props to MLBTR)
