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Rethinking Ivan Nova's Ceiling

Posted by Steve S. at 10:00 am 13 Responses »
Jan 162011

Could Nova reinvent himself...

... into a sinkerballer like Wang?

This is something I’ve been kicking around the past few days. The more I delve into Ivan Nova’s prospect profile, the more he reminds me of former Yankee Chien Ming Wang. Both had uninspiring careers in the minors, and seemed to develop late. Wang’s breakout season was at age 24 in 2004, and Nova’s came in 2010 at age 23, though it should be noted Wang missed a season due to shoulder surgery. But its the scouting reports that really got me thinking. Here’s what our own Sean P said about him over at Pending Pinstripes before last year:

Nova has a report that would make you think he would be an upper echelon type prospect. But as we’ve seen, he’s clearly not. His fastball sits 91-94 and is a plus offering due to his ability to maintain velocity throughout his starts. He also has a sinking fastball he’ll throw as well that had good movement down in the zone that he can command well and get on top of due to his size. His changeup and curveball are also plus offerings, his changeup probably more so than the curve. He has good fade and maintains solid arm action on the change up, but the curveball can be inconsistent and flattens out from time to time. Nova doesn’t always use his stuff effectively however as mentioned earlier. He doesn’t pitch aggressively and fails to put away hitters partly because he avoids pitching inside.

Both of those same things could also be said about Chien Ming Wang. Wang’s fastball averaged 92.3 MPH from 2007-09, while Nova’s averaged 92.9 MPH last year. The key to be a sinkerballer is having good depth on the fastball, and Fangraphs Vertical Movement chart has Wang at +5.4 for his career, and Nova at +6.7 last year. Both Wang and Nova would be categorized as ground ball pitchers, with Wang being an extreme version at 60.1% over the course of his 5 year career. Nova was at 51.4% last year, but I think Nova could improve upon that rate if he features the 2 seamer more often, which is a simple matter of game calling between him and his catcher.

Neither pitcher had great stats in minors, though Wang’s stats are muddied by coming back from injury whereas Ivan Nova was relatively healthy. Nova struck out 6.3/9 in the minors, while Wang struck out 7.2/9. In neither case would you expect that to translate well to the majors facing advanced hitters. Wang allowed 9.0 H/9 while Nova allowed 9.3. Both pitchers kept the ball in the yard as amateurs, with Nova posting a 0.6 HR/9 and Wang coming in at 0.4. The one area where Wang really separated himself from Nova in the minors is his walk rate. Wang had a 2.0 BB/9 in the minors and a 3.44 SO/BB rate, while Nova posted a 3.0 BB/9 in the minors and a 2.2 SO/BB rate. Biggest knock on Nova is lack of aggressiveness and failing to pitch inside, but again the same could be said of Wang. Nova will need to work a bit more in the strike zone at the MLB level if he hopes to resemble Wang’s success, but aggressiveness will be less of an issue if his goal is to generate ground balls instead of trying to miss bats.

There are also similarities in their delivery. Here’s what RABs Mike Axisa said about Nova last year:

Nova has proven to be very durable in recent years, which stems from his fluid and easily repeatable delivery. However, that delivery is a double-edged sword. It allows him to command the ball to both sides of the plate, but at the same time he completely lacks deception, so hitters get a good look at the ball before he releases it

Wang was also known for his smooth, fluid delivery which also lacked deception. But sinkerballers don’t need deception, if you locate the pitch below the belt all a batter can do is beat it into the ground. So even if they know whats coming, it really doesn’t matter.

Most prospect watchers will look at a pitcher’s results in the minors and come up with a projection. But we sometimes forget the minors are there to develop pitchers, or attempt to do so. While it’s always preferable to miss bats, Nova has the skill set to be a nice, mid to back of the rotation sinkerballer who eats loads of innings, and that’s valuable. He can effectively limit the long ball and use 2 seam fastball to generate hard, double play ground balls and the change to generate weak ones. As we saw with Wang, you can win a lot of games pitching that way on a team like the Yanks.

NOTE-The China Post is reporting Wang is on target to open the season pitching for the Nationals this season. Good for him, and I’ll be rooting for him and following his results on the 2011 edition of Keeping up with the ex-Yanks.

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Reviewing this Offseason, Part One

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 3 Responses »
Feb 222010

On the 17th, Tim of MLB Trade Rumors posted the off season in review for the Yankees. There, he obviously lists all the moves that Brian Cashman has made since the Yankees won their 27th championship in November. Since the roster is more or less set, and we’ve got little to do until the Spring Training opener, I thought it’d be nice for us to do a little review of some of the different moves. Today, we’ll talk about pitching

The Yankees made two moves in the rotation this year: they re-signed Andy Pettitte to a one year, $11.75MM deal and acquired Javier Vazquez from the Braves–along with reliever Boone Logan–for Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, and Arodys Vizcaino. Both of these moves are good moves, and I think we all know why.

Pettitte may not be very flashy anymore, but he’s almost a lock to provide 180-200 innings of at least league average pitching. He’s had that type of season (at least 180 IP/100 or greater ERA+) in 11 of his 15 Major League seasons. Consistent performance like that is incredibly valuable, especially when it’s coming from the team’s third starter.

Consistency is also something they’ll get from Javy Vazquez, who’s pitched under 200 innings just three times in his career (172.1 in ’98, 154.2 in ’99, and 198 in ’04). Considering he’ll be lined up as the de-facto fourth starter, the Yankees are likely to get great value from Vazquez. The trade that brought him (back) to the Bronx was also a great deal.

While Melky Cabrera was useful, his being traded seems to signal that the Yankees don’t think he’s going to grow much more than he already has. While that’s one long term ramification of the deal–there is another one–in the short term, it’s a solid deal. I’d be willing to bet something of good value that Javier Vazquez will be more valuable in 2010 than Melky Cabrera will. The other piece the Yankees sent along, Arodys Vizcaino, definitely has high upside but he’s still untested in a full season league, so it’s more than doubtful that he’ll provide any value to Atlanta’s big club team in 2010.

Losing Vizcaino meant that the Yankees’ system took a big hit. However, like it’s been said, despite his undeniable talent, he’s very far away from being a big leaguer. It’s conceivable that, if they offer him arbitration and let Vazquez leave after this season, the Yankees could get a suitable replacement for Vizcaino in the 2011 draft.

Boone Logan was also brought in, and he’ll compete in Spring Training for a bullpen spot. If he makes it, it’ll be as the second lefty. Logan has a .702 OPS against lefties (.333/.398), so he could be a good second option. Is he a necessity? No. Could it hurt to give him an audition at some point in the season? Sure. Basically, Logan replaces Mike Dunn, who would’ve been the second lefty out of the bullpen after Phil Coke was traded to the Tigers.

Of course, the Yankees also lost some pitching in the offseason, though none if it is incredibly major. Aside from Vizcaino, the Yankees parted ways with Phil Coke, Ian Kennedy, Brian Bruney, Mike Dunn, Chien-Ming Wang and Josh Towers. Let’s break this down pitcher by pitcher:

Coke: The biggest loss of the pitchers, going solely by impact on the ’09 team, he was likely to be the second lefty after (a hopefully healthy) Damaso Marte. Coke was traded to the Tigers along with outfielder Austin Jackson for Curtis Granderson. Apparently, the Tigers may try him in the rotation, though manager Jim Leyland sees–and rightly so–as a bullpen guy.

Kennedy: He went in the same deal as Coke, but he headed to Arizona. I’m sad to see Kennedy go. I feel like he never got a fair shake in NY and it would’ve been nice to see him compete for a bullpen spot (an Al Aceves type role) for 2010. Instead, he’ll likely end up in the Diamondbacks’ rotation, where he could do alright, as long as he’s not as timid as he was in his 2008 rotation stint. Attack the zone, Ian! Anyway, losing Kennedy made the Yankees’ depth take a hit, but that was somewhat fixed by Vazquez’s addition. And, like the other players in the two major trades of this offseason, the players brought in will definitely be more valuable than the players that left.

Bruney: Bruney was traded to the Nationals for their pick in the Rule V draft, which turned into outfielder Jamie Hoffmann. Brian would’ve been struggling to make a spot and after a few years of inconsistency–and the beginning of a relatively expensive portion of his career–the Yankees were right to cut him loose.

Dunn: Not a big loss, Dunn still needs some seasoning in AAA. If he can harness his control, he could be a decent lefty option going forward for the Braves.

Towers: This means literally nothing but the loss of some AAA fodder.

Wang: We’re all sad to see Wang go, but the move makes sense. There doesn’t seem to be room for Wang going forward. He wouldn’t be a good fit in the rotation–there’s no room there and he wouldn’t be the fifth, or even sixth, best starter on the Yankees–and his pitch-to-contact-style is not desirable for a bullpen pitcher. For the Nationals, this move is a low risk, medium reward signing. I wish CMW luck in our nation’s capital and I appreciate his pitching of ’05-’08, but the Yankees will likely be better off without him.

Check back tomorrow for the hitting version of the offseason review.

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Chien-Ming Wang a National

Posted by Chris H. at 5:00 pm No Responses »
Feb 162010

It’s for real this time. According to Chico Harlan, the Nationals have agreed to a $2 million, one-year deal with Chien-Ming Wang. He can earn an additional $3 million in incentives. Washington is set to unveil Wang on Friday, in Florida, at Space Coast Stadium. Wang’s pinstriped career ends with a 55-26 record, a 4.16 ERA, 3.99 FIP, two 19-win seasons, and a second place finish in the 2006 Cy Young voting. Good luck in Washington, Wanger.

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Wang at least 3 months away

Posted by Chris H. at 5:00 pm 2 Responses »
Feb 022010

According to MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick, last week, the Dodgers observed the rehabbing Chien-Ming Wang as he threw off flat ground and, needless to say, they were not too impressed by the results. Gurnick says that Joe Torre’s club believes Wang is “three months or more away from pitching in a game,” meaning that he likely won’t be able to find a Major League deal until after the season has begun. In fact, Wang may have to wait until the summer in order to find a taker for his services. He and his agent, Alan Nero, could actually be better off with this midseason strategy as many organizations will be in search of added rotational depth once June rolls around, and clubs would likely be willing to spend more then, on a fully healthy Wang, rather than now, on a Wang whose future is still uncertain. Either way, regardless of his vague status, as stated by Keith Law, “Wang is worth a flier to see if he has something left… a sinkerballer can survive with a little less velocity, so he’s worth a look.” Thus, he will eventually land somewhere.

If you’re hoping to see the Yankees re-sign Wang, this might be good news for you in that he does not appear ready to sign with any other team, at least for several more weeks/months. However, a reunion is rather unlikely as there are many desperate teams out there willing to spend more on Wang – the Mets, for example – than the Yankees are.

Photo by Reuters

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Cards still interested in Chien-Ming Wang

Posted by Chris H. at 3:00 pm 1 Response »
Jan 192010

According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals are in the process of “reviewing the medical information on Chien-Ming Wang,” a potential rotation option pitching coach Dave Duncan described as “intriguing” in mid-December. If the interest is real, St. Louis would be a nice landing spot for the rehabilitating right-hander, as Mitchell Boggs, a less than impressive name in comparison, is currently penciled in as the team’s 5th starter. In addition, Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny are not exactly locks for a full season’s worth of work, therefore, having a relatively inexpensive, high-upside arm like Wang’s could help the Cardinals construct ample rotation depth for 2010.

Wang has garnered a lot of interest but is not expected to throw off a mound until mid-February at the earliest.

Photo by Getty Images

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Wang Could Be Throwing Off Mound Soon

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 9:00 pm 2 Responses »
Jan 042010

From Ken Rosenthal:

Positive report today from Dr. Andrews on former #Yankees RHP Wang. Could throw off mound in 6-8 wks. Agents expect heightened interest.

I am not sure how much more interest can be stirred on Wang, as ESPN reported today that Wang’s agent has heard from 15 teams, with the Yankees being one of them. I would love for Wang to return, as he would provide the Yankees with valuable depth and should not be excessively costly. That being said, I am not sure it makes a ton of sense for Wang to sign with a club that does not have a rotation spot currently available for him should he prove healthy. The best career move would be to go to a club that will slot him into the rotation the instant he proves his health, so that he can build up some value for another go at free agency in 2011. I hope that I am wrong, but I think that Chien-Ming Wang’s tenure in pinstripes is over.

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Wang may not sign until May

Posted by Chris H. at 12:24 pm 2 Responses »
Dec 142009

Last night, after speaking to Chien-Ming Wang’s agent, Alan Nero, Ken Davidoff of Newsday noted that Wang may not sign until April or May. Today, ESPN’s Buster Olney confirms, writing that it’s “possible that [Wang] won’t sign for months.” This is largely a contractual move, as Wang may receive better offers after a few months of rehab, in which he could prove his shoulder’s health. “In short,” states Olney, “the more he shows as he goes through his rehabilitation, and in perhaps throwing for scouts in the spring, the better the offers to him could be.”

In light of this news, the Yankees, who Olney says can possibly resign Wang, will likely have to move on this winter and explore other pitching options that are currently available (e.g., Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer, Kelvim Escobar, etc.). They can’t really wait for Wang, not if he’s holding out until May. If the team adds other players and still has payroll space for him at that time, then perhaps a deal will happen, although it seems unlikely.

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The Non-Tender Candidates

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 12:01 pm 16 Responses »
Dec 112009

The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration eligible is tomorrow, as any eligible player not offered a contract immediately becomes a free agent. Matt at Fack Youk took a look at the 4 Yankee candidates (Wang, Gaudin, Mitre, and Cabrera), and concluded that Chien MIng Wang would be the only one to go. He says:

Wang is universally regarded as a goner. The Yankees do not want to offer him arbitration and play him more than the $5M he made in 2009 after he’s missed nearly the entirety of the past two seasons. Wang started a throwing program last week, and his agent claims he won’t be far behind other pitchers in spring training, stating he’ll be ready to pitch by May 1st. Still, the Yankees don’t figure it wise to commit the money to Wang given his injury history – including three shoulder injuries now – his poor performance last year and the uncertainty that surrounds him moving forward. I’ll be sad to see him go. He was a very good pitcher for the Yankees for three plus years before that freak injury in Houston nearly two years ago. The Yankees likely botched his rehab and then didn’t really put him in a position to succeed or improve upon his return.There’s a chance Wang re-signs with the Yankees for less money, but I just don’t see it happening. He’ll likely receive a better offer from someone else; Joe Torre and the Dodgers have expressed interest.

Although I wrote about Wang leaving last week, I have been having second thoughts. If Ben Sheets is truly going to hold out for a deal that exceeds 10 million dollars, Wang might be the best fit for the 2010 Yankees. They likely plan on having Chamberlain and Hughes start, so they may just need another starter who can fill in and soak up some extra innings, rather than a big money acquisition that will slot into the 2 or 3 spot in the rotation. If the Yankees do not believe that he can provide quality innings or feel that his health will continue to be an issue, letting him go will be the right move. But if they have any faith in Wang’s ability to give them, say, 80-100 league average innings, it would be prudent to tender him a contract and focus their resources elsewhere.

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Wang Likely To Be Gone

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 2:30 pm 13 Responses »
Dec 072009

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Chien Ming Wang ahead of schedule

Posted by Steve S. at 7:27 am 12 Responses »
Nov 112009

From Joel Sherman’s Twitter via MLBTR:

Sherman (via Twitter) reported that Alan Nero, Wang’s agent, said that Wang was given the green light by Dr. James Andrews to start throwing by December 15 and that Wang may be able to pitch again by as early as the middle of April. In a follow-up tweet, Sherman noted that Yankee doctors have yet to examine Wang themselves.

This changes things from the Yankee perspective, but not greatly. They’re still a lock to non-tender him, and still won’t offer him a contract until he’s throwing on a mound again, which is at least 4-5 months away. As EJ discussed yesterday, they’ll want him off the roster for the Rule V draft so they can protect another player.

But the notion of him as some mid-season insurance policy goes out the window. Now it looks like he’ll be able to contribute to somebody for most of the season, and the question may come down to whether or not he wants to pitch with the Yankees. Wherever he signs, it’s likely that he will get a low-base pay incentive laden deal, so he’s going to want to have a regular spot in a rotation so he can prove he’s healthy and effective so as to get another (hopefully longer) deal for 2011. But if Brad Penny and John Smoltz are any guide, he could be guaranteed as much as 5 mil next year. Given how poorly that worked out for boy-genius Theo and his super-secret advanced medical analysis, I suspect no one will repeat that mistake.

In either scenario, the Yanks may not be willing to offer him a slot in the rotation with Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes targeted for the starting staff next year. Given the fact he’s coming back from not one but two injuries and was completely ineffective last year even when healthy, it’s difficult to imagine the Yanks guaranteeing him anything in terms of playing time. Plus, this is his 3rd shoulder injury in his tenure with the franchise. So it may not come down to money, but playing time and Wang may be the one who decides to play elsewhere.

However, there may be a silver lining for both parties. The Yanks want to keep Hughes’ innings down next year and I doubt will repeat the way they did things with Joba this past year. One solution would be to hold Hughes back until mid-May from joining the rotation. If they do that, it would give them an opportunity to get a look at Wang from mid-April to mid-May to see what he has. Looking at the 2010 schedule, they have an off day every week in the month of April, so you can skip the 5th starter for the first two weeks of the season and add Wang in the middle of the month to get a look at him. Also, Wang’s concerns about playing time could be addressed with some easy to reach incentives built into the deal, where a 2nd year automatically kicks in if he spends X number of days on the roster.

This isn’t a no brainer, but it isn’t impossible either. I’ll bet they figure something out.

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