Although he is entrenched in the much-discussed competition for the fifth rotation spot this spring, right-hander, Phil Hughes, will continue to experiment with his changeup, in the hopes that it will become a reliable fixture in his pitch repertoire. “I’m trying to get my changeup down to where it can be a useful pitch for me,” said Hughes, after throwing 10 changeups during yesterday’s 2 2/3 inning-outing against Detroit. “It’s never going to get there if I don’t throw it,” he added. If he can master it, or at least increase its employment and effectiveness, even marginally, the changeup should be a most valuable weapon for Hughes in 2010 and beyond, particularly versus left-handed opponents.
In his short big-league career (192 2/3 innings), left-handed hitters have had some fun facing the young righty, posting a .274/.368/.450 slash line against him. The cutter that Hughes adopted last season, darting in on lefties, helps with that issue, though the change, sinking out of the zone, away and down, against lefty batters, should help him improve further. As stated by Hughes, “You get used to throwing changeups to lefties because there’s no risk in it. If you bounce it to your arm side, it’s not big deal. With a right-hander, you’ve really got to finish the pitch.” Hopefully, come the end of exhibition play, Hughes’ change will be refined to the point where it is an actual weapon for him this year.
Photo by the AP
Over the weekend, George King of the NY Post wrote about the fifth starter competition between Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, and, included in King’s article was an interesting tidbit regarding Hughes’ changeup, which he has been developing this spring. Apparently, Hughes has altered his grip of the pitch, going from a split-grip change – which, I believe, was somewhat similar to Ian Kennedy’s vulcan changeup – to a circle change. “I tweaked it a little bit,” said Hughes. “I am back to the circle change and getting a feel for it.” Hughes had gone from the circle changeup grip to the split-finger changeup grip last year, during Spring Training, so the “tweak” is not necessarily earth-shattering.
Manager Joe Girardi stated that Hughes’ changeup has looked effective during bullpen sessions, however, according to King, Girardi will wait to “reserve judgment until he sees how hitters react to it when they take their bats off the shoulders.” “You want to see the deception it has when hitters are swinging in a game,” noted Girardi in reference to the pitch. “But, I like the progress he has made and we need to keep on him and tell him to continue to use it.” Hughes hopes to reincorporate the change within his repertoire this season after rarely using it as a reliever a year ago.
From Burnett to Hughes, there’s a big changeup theme to this spring. Everyone wants to be like CC, I guess…
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According to the Star-Ledger’s Marc Carig, right-hander, A.J. Burnett, is refining his changeup this spring and hopes to overcome a fear he has of getting beat by the pitch in order to employ it more often in 2010. “I think it’s a big key,” noted Burnett when discussing the pitch, which he used only 3.1% of the time a season ago, the lowest rate of any American League starter with at least 180 innings accrued. “Whether I throw it or not, I don’t know, but I’ve been working on it,” he added. Carig states that Burnett is trying to get comfortable with the offering in camp so that he can utilize it specifically when his curveball is off in the upcoming regular season. Earlier this month, I actually suggested that Burnett should use his changeup more this year, citing the 33-year old’s weak fastball numbers from last season, according to pitch type values, as a reason for the increase in usage. As I see it, there’s no downside in trying it.
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From Chad Jennings (courtesy of RAB Twitter):
For now, Phil Hughes is only throwing fastballs and changeups in his bullpen sessions, and he expects to throw one more bullpen before he mixes in curveballs and cutters. He compared the development of his changeup to last year’s development of the cutter. “I’ll concentrate on it all spring,” he said. “Hopefully I’ll get it to a point where it’s a solid pitch for me. It just comes with repetition.”
Although Hughes does not need a changeup to be successful as a reliever or a decent starter, he may need one to be an upper echelon type starter. The cutter is simply a fastball variant, and I am not sure he can get by throwing a fastball or similar pitch 70-75% of the time. Mixing in a solid changeup, even if he only throws it once an inning, will help keep hitters off balance and will force them to refrain from sitting on the fastball and curve. However, improving a pitch is not an easy endeavor, and there are no guarantees that Hughes’ hard work will pay off. Hopefully, he can experience at least some success with the pitch, and broaden his repertoire in preparation for his eventual move to the rotation.
Despite being the proud of owner of a fastball that could often challenge radar guns for accurate readings, for much of his career, A.J. Burnett has been surprisingly ineffective with his seemingly impressive mid to upper-90s heat. For instance, while with the Blue Jays from 2006-2008, Burnett’s fastball was, in total, 1.8 runs below average (-4.1 in ’06, +8.2 in ’07, -5.9 in ’08). In 2009, the lanky starter actually posted his worst fastball value mark ever, as the offering, which generally clocked in at 94.2 mph, was 13 runs below average. In the American League, only James Shields (-13.2) and Carl Pavano (-23.6) were worse, and their fastballs were significantly slower than Burnett’s. If one considers that Burnett is essentially a fastball-curveball pitcher, then this becomes an even greater problem.
But how, exactly, does Burnett manage to be so unproductive with a fastball that most pitchers would die for? According to pitch f/x data from a year ago, the movement on his fastball was solid and, of course, the velocity he can wield is above average. Thus, there is little there to indicate a flaw. Perhaps, then, the problem is not with Burnett’s fastball and, instead, the underlying issue rests on what the pie-loving right-hander is not throwing—his changeup.
In 2009, Burnett threw his changeup just 3.1% of the time. This was actually the lowest percentage of any starter in the American League with at least 180 innings under their belt. Though the best items in his tool belt are his gas and his hammer, utilizing the changeup in a way that matched his career average (5.7%) might have helped the 33-year old achieve greater success with his fastball. I say this because, based on historical pitch value data, Burnett’s best seasons with the fastball also featured an uptick in changeup employment. For instance, in 2007, Burnett’s fastball was 8.2 runs above average as he threw the change 7.1% of the time. Further, in 2005, Burnett’s fastball was 7.4 runs above average and 9.9% of his pitches were changeups. Basically, in the years Burnett utilized his changeup more often, his fastball’s efficacy increased. In the years Burnett threw his changeup less – 3.1% in 2009 (wFB of -13.0), 5.0% in 2008 (wFB of -5.9), and 4.2% in 2006 (wFB of -4.1) – his fastball’s efficacy was hindered. While I cannot prove a direct relationship between the two, it does not seem entirely far-fetched to link his fastball to his changeup, as the fastball and changeup are often dependent upon one another in order to be successful. In fact, it is the only noticeable correlation I can extract from the pitch value data (his use of the curve and slider have not varied much annually).
In 2010, I think we might see Burnett go to his changeup more often (it will be interesting to see how much Jorge Posada or Francisco Cervelli might call for it as compared to Jose Molina), as it will likely help setup his other pitches and increase the overall effectiveness of his fastball. Given the available data, it seems like a constructive idea.
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Cole Hamels’ best pitch this year is, once again, his changeup. The pitch, which generally clocks in around 78-81 mph, on average, was thrown just over 30% of the time in 2009. It serves as Hamels’ main strikeout offering and, according to pitch value data, was 11.7 runs above average, the second best changeup value in the NL (only Tim Lincecum’s changeup was better). He’ll throw the changeup to right-handed hitters—low and away—as well as left-handed hitters—low and away—and, when facing righties, Hamels is not afraid to come inside with the pitch to induce a weak groundout. Therefore, while Hamels doesn’t have an overpowering fastball (90 mph, on average), his changeup is deceptive enough to help him strike out 7.81 batters per nine innings. Basically, expect to see a lot of fastballs—just under 60% of the time—and changeups, with the occasional curve mixed in.
So, Hamels’ changeup is good, that much is clear. However, who can we expect to have success against it?
Here are the Yankees’ season numbers against changeups, according to pitch type value data (runs +/- average).
Jorge Posada 6.7
Derek Jeter 4.9
Mark Teixeira 2.6
Melky Cabrera 1.4
Nick Swisher 1.1
Johnny Damon 1.1
Alex Rodriguez 0.8
Hideki Matsui 0.1
Robinson Cano -1.9
With the exception of Cano, everyone on the Yankees can hit a changeup, as they’re either average (e.g., Matsui, A-Rod) or above average (e.g., Posada, Jeter) against the pitch (and even Cano isn’t far off from average territory).
Do these numbers indicate that the Yankees will do well against Hamels’ changeup? Not necessarily, as these are season numbers that aren’t exactly predictive with regards to one outing against a specific pitcher. Hamels changeup is also one of the best in baseball, therefore, it’s problematic to assume that they’ll do well given the aforementioned value data (I’m also not sure as to how a pitcher’s left or right-handedness affects these numbers). However, what we can glean from these figures is that the Yankees, in general, can hit changeups, collectively. Based on pitch value data, they were actually the second best hitting team against changeups this season (the Blue Jays were first). They’re not like the Cardinals, for example, or the Royals, two teams that weren’t able to hit the changeup at all in 2009.
Hopefully, tonight, the Yankees will be able to show Cole Hamels just how good they are at hitting his favorite pitch.
Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images
Yup, true story.
According to pitch value data, CC’s changeup is 22.5 runs above average. That’s the best in the American League for any starting pitchers with 150+ innings. In fact, across both leagues, CC’s changeup value is second only to Tim Lincecum’s, which is 33.5 runs above average.
CC also had the best changeup in the AL in 2008 (18.2 RAA). The pitch has improved, incrementally, in each year since 2006 and is now the best in the American League for the second year in a row. This season, however, CC’s changeup is ever bettter than it was in ‘08. I’m not sure why this has occurred, although it could be that fastball has gotten better — it’s worth 15.8 runs above average this season, a career high — which is then aiding the change.
Kudos to John Flaherty for this one. Whenever CC is on the mound, Flash always seems to marvel at his changeup and I thought I’d check out the stats. Pretty interesting stuff, especially since CC’s changeup doesn’t seem to get much recognition.
