From Tom Verducci:

I know this to be true because Curt Schilling told me years ago. His theory was that the Red Sox and Yankees are so evenly matched that the team that gets the most starts out of its top five starters will be the better team. It’s amazing how right he has been….

Let’s look at the past seven years, the era in which Boston and New York essentially have been near-equal rivals, and examine the correlation between which team got the most starts from its top five and which team had the most wins….

Schilling has been right four straight years. Only once in the past seven years did the team with more starts have fewer wins, but even that occasion needs an explanation. It happened in 2004, when the Red Sox — who got an incredible 157 starts from five starters — may have had three fewer regular season wins than New York but beat the Yankees in the ALCS and won the World Series.
So determining who is better this year, the Red Sox or Yankees, becomes a very simple exercise: just forecast which team will get more starts out of its top five starters. And when you do that, the answer becomes obvious: the Yankees will be the better team.

I think Verducci is correct here. While you can argue about which rotation is more talented, it is clear that the Yankee rotation is more reliable. In the Red Sox rotation, Verducci dubs only Beckett and Lester as reliable, and even Beckett has some question marks regarding his health crop up occasionally. Conversely, CC Sabathia and Javier Vazquez are two of the more durable pitchers in the game, Andy Pettitte has remained healthy with consistency despite his advancing age, and AJ Burnett seems to have found a way to stay off the DL after years of struggling with injuries. Furthermore, the Yankees have greater depth, with 8 solid starting options, while the Red Sox have a larger drop-off after their top 6.

This study is obviously not dispositive, and the club that gets fewer starts from their top 5 starters can compensate in other areas. However, considering two similar bullpens and the Yankees superior lineup, the fact that the Yankees project to be more reliable in the rotation bodes well for their chances in the AL East.

(Just a thought: this sort of concept might be self-fulfilling. With teams like the Yankees and Red Sox, poor starters will not be given much of a chance, and the 5 guys with the most starts will usually be 5 fairly good options. In this way, counting the number of starts from the top 5 is just as much about effectiveness as health (whereas with lesser teams, the top 5 might simply be the 5 healthiest guys, because they do not have many effective options). As such, the team with the most starts from the top 5 is likely to be most effective and will rack up a larger number of wins.)

Over the weekend, George King of the NY Post wrote about the fifth starter competition between Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, and, included in King’s article was an interesting tidbit regarding Hughes’ changeup, which he has been developing this spring. Apparently, Hughes has altered his grip of the pitch, going from a split-grip change – which, I believe, was somewhat similar to Ian Kennedy’s vulcan changeup – to a circle change. “I tweaked it a little bit,” said Hughes. “I am back to the circle change and getting a feel for it.” Hughes had gone from the circle changeup grip to the split-finger changeup grip last year, during Spring Training, so the “tweak” is not necessarily earth-shattering.

Manager Joe Girardi stated that Hughes’ changeup has looked effective during bullpen sessions, however, according to King, Girardi will wait to “reserve judgment until he sees how hitters react to it when they take their bats off the shoulders.” “You want to see the deception it has when hitters are swinging in a game,” noted Girardi in reference to the pitch. “But, I like the progress he has made and we need to keep on him and tell him to continue to use it.” Hughes hopes to reincorporate the change within his repertoire this season after rarely using it as a reliever a year ago.

From Burnett to Hughes, there’s a big changeup theme to this spring. Everyone wants to be like CC, I guess…

Photo by the AP

I had an entirely random thought about the Yankees this morning, brought on by looking at the early season splits for Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and AJ Burnett. Looking at the numbers for all three, there were points during the 2009 season when Yankees fans could look at the stats on any of these three new additions and question the huge contracts given to the player. Teixeira was awful in April, OPS’ing .738 with just 6 extra base hits. Sabathia had a similar April, and exited his first start in May with an ERA of 4.85. He vacillated around the mid-3’s for much of the year, and had an ERA of 3.95 as late as August 2nd. Regarding Burnett, he started the season with a few good outings, but had an ERA above 5 for most of May and did not get below 4 until the very last start in June. In the past, Yankee signings who had struggled in the way these three did would have been booed mercilessly. These three saw, at most, a brief smattering of boos and some complaints on internet message boards and blogs. What was different?

I would suggest that the focus upon A-Rod by both media and fans has become so intense that the success and failings of other players tend to be obscured. In most cities, a player like Teixeira or Sabathia struggling would be the most important and most publicized story about the club in that day’s paper. In New York, even when injured, more stories were written about A-Rod than any other player on the club. Quite simply, there was such a frenzy surrounding Alex for much of the first three months of the season, whether it was about steroids, his injury, his lack of rest, or his personal life, that the media was not pointing out and exacerbating the struggles of the new players. And so my question for you, the reader, is this. Has A-Rod taken some of the pressure of playing in New York off his teammates? Does the focus on A-Rod allow new players enough time to adjust and get acclimated to the city and the media? I believe that it does. Do you?

As it stands right now, the Yankees have a pretty damn good starting rotation. All three of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Javier Vasquez could easily head the rotations of just about any team in baseball. While I think we’d all agree that Sabathia is the ace and leader of the staff, I think there is room for debate as to who is the Yankees’ second best starter.

Because of how it lined up this past year–and the success the rotation had in 2009–it seems that everyone assumes Burnett will be the second starter, followed by Andy Pettitte, followed by Vasquez, followed by Jophil Chamberhughes. By the end of the season, though, I think we’ll all see that Vasquez is a fourth starter in “number” only.

Both the CHONE and CAIRO systems project the incredibly durable Vazquez (no fewer than 198 innings since 1999) to throw more innings than Burnett, walk fewer than Burnett, and strike more batters out than Burnett. We could be cautious about this because of the limited success Vazquez had in the A.L. East in 2004, but that’s a one year sample that was heavily swayed by one awful half of a baseball season.

Combining the two projection systems, we can expect the Burnett/Vazquez combo to post an ERA of about 3.91 which, in the A.L. East would be great.

Both pitchers have their upsides and their flaws. Vazquez always puts up great peripherals, but somehow, the ERA doesn’t quite follow. He pitches massive amounts of innings and truly racks up strikeouts, but he also gives up his fair share of gopher balls. Burnett is similar in many ways. His stuff is arguably the best stuff in baseball, but his control can be an issue at times. And, while he’s gotten through the last two season without injury issues, I think we’re all holding our breath for something to happen to A.J.

Regardless of how you line the five Yankee starters up, their rotation will be a strength in 2010.

In CC Sabathia, they have what everyone wants in a pitcher: he eats innings and performs at a high level during all those innings. In A.J. Burnett, they have a guy who can be flat-out nasty for extended periods of time, despite some periods of frustration. In Andy Pettitte, they have a time-tested veteran who will always give you innings. In Javier Vazquez, they have a hybrid of Sabathia and Burnett: a workhorse who can also be a little frustrating. In either Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes, they have a youngster with almost unlimited potential who could explode onto the scene at any second.

The Yankee rotation is far from perfect, just like every rotation in baseball, but it still looks like it’s going to be one of the better ones in the American League. Pairing that rotation with the already potent offense gives the Yankees a very bright outlook for 2010, one that could potentially outshine 2009.

CC Sabathia serves as an organic counter-argument to the notion that a three-man rotation, reliant upon four possible short-rest performances from its three starters, does not work in the World Series. In Game 1 against the Phillies, Sabathia pitched well and, in Game 4, to everyone’s surprise (well, not really), he also pitched well. Basically, despite performing on short-rest, Sabathia pitched as he normally does, rewarding Joe Girardi’s confidence in an abbreviated rotation.

However, thanks to A.J. Burnett’s memorable Game 5 implosion (6 ER over 2 IP), the three-man rotation, which seemed like a good idea after Sabathia’s outing, has suddenly become a bleak proposition. Pitchers are often billed as creatures of habit, therefore, to break that habit’s particulars and start a pitcher on short-rest seems like an outwardly destructive decision. Yet, I ask, in the end, isn’t effective pitching the simple result, not necessarily of an extra day’s rest, but of individual execution, as CC Sabathia demonstrated in Game 4 (and, as he had done during the ALCS)? If all starters are doomed to fail on short-rest, then how, exactly, did Sabathia buck a fixed trend and perform so admirably?

Those who disagree with the three-man plan will argue that Sabathia is an altogether different animal. With a massive 290 lb. frame, he is, according to them, built for extra work on short-rest. He is nothing like the unpredictable arm of A.J. Burnett or the aged and often fatigued arm of Andy Pettitte. To the dejected detractors of the three-man rotation, Sabathia’s body is an outlier that explains everything. However, when you truly reflect upon that notion, that Sabathia’s buxom body is somehow behind his short-rested success, you quickly come to the realization that such an argument is entirely nonsensical. Sabathia pushes the 300 lb. envelope. In essence, he defies the logic of physicality with his remarkable endurance. He shouldn’t be as good as he is on short-rest (both Burnett and Pettitte appear to be in better shape), however, he is and will likely be that good in a potential Game 7. Now, why is that the case?

In one word—execution, plain and simple. Pitchers either execute or they don’t. A.J. Burnett simply failed to execute in Game 5. It was something we have seen him do (or not do) throughout the year. He wasn’t the unfortunate victim of rest deprivation. If Andy Pettitte pitches well tonight, or if he pulls a Kevin Brown, it will be because of pitch execution. Ultimately, an extra day of rest will have little do with it.

Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

Yankee starting pitchers are writing a sequel

According to Dave Eiland, who was interviewed on Ryan Ruocco’s 1050 ESPN radio show yesterday, CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Andy Pettitte all went into the manager’s office recently and told Joe they want the ball on short rest. Eiland said that they would consider that, along with how they look in their side sessions before making a final determination. If they show any signs of fatigue, they’ll keep them on their regular 5 days schedule. But if they look good, they’ll consider starting them.

CC Sabathia’s numbers on short rest are unreal (3-1, 1.01 ERA 0.825 WHIP) AJ Burnett’s are better than his regular season numbers (4-0, 3.25 ERA and 1.074 WHIP) and Andy Pettitte’s are about the same as his normal rest numbers (4-6, 4.15 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Eiland also said that AJ’s Home-Road splits would not deter them from starting him in Philly, which I must admit surprised me.

This changes things a bit for me. I thought Gaudin would go Game 5, since Girardi would shy away from making his 37 year old veteran lefty starter (who just got over a bad shoulder) go on short rest. But if he’s lobbying to pitch Game 6 and looks good, you go for it. Given AJ+CC’s previous success and Andy’s willingness to go, I’d take advantage of the fact that Manuel is only pitching Cliff Lee twice and get my three top guys pitching as much as possible. No reason to hand the Phillies an all-but-guaranteed win by pitching Chad Gaudin against Cliff Lee.  AJ on short rest gives us a much better shot to win Game 5. While I dont think AJ will be as sharp on the road, I also think the Yanks will fare better facing Lee for a 2nd time in a week. That match up would be a toss up to me. With last night’s win, the Yanks are up 2-1 with CC Sabathia facing Joe Blanton tonight, which is a match up that heavily favors the Yanks. A win would put the Yanks in a commanding 3-1 series lead and AJ could take them home in a hard fought Game 5.

This is all contingent on rain outs. If any of the games in Philly gets canceled, that pushes everyone up a day and they would therefore lose the off day, and of course a day of rest along with it. Game 5 getting canceled wouldn’t affect things, since that’s AJs last start of the season anyway.  But if Game 4 was to get canceled, CC would go on normal rest on Monday and be unavailable for Game 7 on Thursday, since he’d only have 2 days rest. Then we’d have a huge problem. According to Accuweather, the forecast in Philly looks much better for Sunday and Monday. Let’s hope so.

Today, Joe Girardi announced that CC Sabathia will start Game 4 of the WS on short-rest.

Also, Nick Swisher is back in right field for Game 3.

Coming into the postseason, many pundits had the Yankees as the favorites to win the 2009 World Series. However, most had questions about the two biggest stars for the Yankees, CC Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez. Both had rocky playoff track records, and many wondered whether these two regular season heros could carry the Yankees in October. Those concerns have proved unfounded, as both players have turned in stellar performances to this point, with A-Rod in particular saving the Yankees when they have needed him the most.

The success of Rodriguez and Sabathia illustrates the pitfalls of drawing conclusions from a small sample size. Denigrating a pitcher like Sabathia’s entire body of work based on a handful of postseason starts is not logical, nor is dubbing Rodriguez a choker based on 174 at bats. When the sample is too small, you cannot draw any conclusions from it. Look how quickly Alex was able to pull his postseason numbers up to his career marks, courtesy of Pinstripe Alley:

Arod, regular season career (8304AB): .305/.390/.576

Arod, postseason 2009 (27AB): .407/.469/1.000

Arod postseason career (174AB): .299/.388/.563

Similarly, their performances thus far this postseason do not mean that they are great postseason players. Rather, they illustrate that sometimes, great players will do great things. Mark Teixeira’s struggles reflect the fact that sometimes, great players struggle in big spots. Thankfully, Brian Cashman did not make decisions based on these absurdly small samples, and neither should we.

Lineups provided by LoHud:

YANKEES
Derek Jeter SS
Johnny Damon LF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Hideki Matsui DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Melky Cabrera CF

Pitching: LHP CC Sabathia (2-0, 1.23 ERA)

ANGELS
Chone Figgins 3B
Bobby Abreu RF
Torii Hunter CF
Vladimir Guerrero DH
Juan Rivera LF
Howie Kendrick 2B
Kendry Morales 1B
Mike Napoli C
Erick Aybar SS

Pitching: LHP Scott Kazmir (0-0, 7.50 ERA)

TIME/TV: 7:57 p.m., FOX

Here are Kazmir’s career numbers against the Yankees.

Here are Sabathia’s career numbers against the Angels (postseason not included).

Facing Kazmir could be what Mark Teixeira needs. He’s 7-for-11 against the young left-hander (.636/.667/1.000). Also, Jorge Posada, who has moved up in the lineup, is 11-for-25 against Kazmir with a .440/.464/.680 line. While I don’t necessarily believe in Melky Cabrera, he too has good numbers against Kazmir. He’s 8-for-20 (.400/.400/.500). The rest of the Yankee lineup hasn’t done much against him, though (Matsui’s .179 BA explains the Jorge flip).

CC is pitching on 3 days of rest. Let’s hope that he’s got enough in the tank to dominate.

Via Marc Carig (props to RAB), we learn that the Yankees will start CC Sabathia on short rest for Game 4 of the ALCS.