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The Looming Time Bomb Of CC's Opt-Out

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Feb 092011

Dan Mennella at MLB Trade Rumors noted the following yesterday:

Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia has shed 30 pounds this offseason in an effort to reduce the load on his surgically repaired right knee, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com. Typically, we don’t get too excited over this sort of Spring Training cliche, as we’re bound to hear quite a bit about who’s in shape and who’s not over the next couple weeks, but 30 pounds is a lot of weight, and we’re especially mindful of the opt-out clause in Sabathia’s contract after the 2011 campaign. If he’s healthy and has a big season, Sabathia could be in for another big payday next offseason.

Health seems very important to this equation. Sabathia is owed $23 million per year from 2011 until 2015. That means if he opts out, he leaves $92 million dollars over 4 seasons on the table. He will be 31 years old.

If Sabathia has another Cy Young-caliber season, it will no doubt be the correct economic decision for him to exercise his opt-out clause and try to earn similar money over more years on the open market. Cliff Lee, a highly comparable, if slightly less able, pitcher earned $120 million over 5 years, despite being a full year older than Sabathia will be after 2011. And Lee actually turned down quite a bit of money to settle with the Phillies. I don’t think its unreasonable to expect Sabathia to attract offers in the 6 / $150 range after another year of baseball inflation. Opting out could make him roughly $50 million dollars richer, or more.

Very few players in the history of baseball have ever left that much money on the table for any reason. Lee turned down $28 million to return to the Phillies, and Gil Meche left $12 million on the table to retire, but if Sabathia chooses not to opt-out, he would be passing up the opportunity to earn quite a bit of money.

Of course, Sabathia insists that he will not opt-out of his contract. And he may have such a strong feeling of loyalty to the Yankees and New York that he chooses to stay put. But really, does anyone believe him?

Now, Moshe and others would probably chime in right now and say that the Yankees could benefit from Sabathia opting out. The Yankees got him for his age 28-30 seasons, and would be on the hook for the beginning of his decline years at a high price. There’s some merit to this argument, but I don’t think we should follow it down that path. A free agent ace starting pitcher costs a lot of money, and requires the team to take on significant risk, in today’s market. The Yankees have the money to spend, and Sabathia is as good a guy as there is out there to spend money on. While 36 years old is by no means young, most players haven’t yet completely broken down by the time they reach that age. The odds are that Sabathia will continue to be productive for the majority of his contract.

If Sabathia opts out, the Yankees have some choices. They can resign him at an exorbitant price, or look elsewhere. Elsewhere theoretically includes the fairly weak 2012 free agent market for starting pitchers, the farm system, or a trade. None of these options presents itself with a near-term ace-caliber pitcher to carry the team through the playoffs and to the World Series. If another 28 year-old ace was available on the free agent market, The Yankees would be smart to go and pay him, and let Sabathia bring his risky early 30s to another team. But he is no, so I fear that the end conclusion will be that Sabathia opts out and the Yankees are forced to pay him a lot more money than they currently are. Alex Rodriguez de ja vu here we come. Please Cashman, no more opt-out clauses.

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Projecting the Rotation

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Feb 022011

Without a hint of hesitation, I would say that the starting rotation is the biggest hole the 2011 Yankees will have. It consists of one bonafide ace/workhorse/gamer/whatever buzzword there is for pitchers in CC Sabathia. After that, there’s no shortage of question marks. Let’s rewind to last year for a second.

The Yankees had eight men take the hill to start a game in 2010: Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, Dustin Moseley, and Javier Vazquez. Sparing the long reminiscence, we could call 2010 a mixed bag in terms of success for the Yankee starters. CC Sabathia had a typical CC Sabathia season. Andy Pettitte was great, but was injured and threw under 130 innings. Mitre enjoyed a small sample of (probably unsustainable) success; Moseley was replacement level as expected; Nova showed some potential. Phil Hughes looked like he was starting to realize his considerable upside, though he did slide a bit after an impressive first month. Vazquez and Burnett? Looking at their collective performance in 2010 is like looking at the light that came from the Ark of the Covenant, only it wasn’t the power of God but of unmatched suckitude.

All told, the 2010 starters for the Yankees tossed 973 innings and racked up 10.60 fWAR. Can the 2011 rotation match or beat that? A lot of our gut reactions might say “no” considering how poorly we’ve been “conditioned” to view the forthcoming rotation. So I plugged some Yankee projections into the pitching WAR spreadsheet from Beyond the Box Score (glove slap Mike Axisa) to see what would come out the other end.

I intended this post to only be about Ivan Nova, but I thought why not expand it to the whole rotation? After all, I like to think I live by the “go big or go home” motto that a high school friend spouted perpetually. I used nine starters, the nine I think are most likely to make starts for the 2011 Yankees. I took their CAIRO projected innings pitched and FIPs and plugged them into the above spreadsheet and here’s what I got:

CC Sabathia: 210 IP w/3.68 FIP = 4.7 WAR
Phil Hughes: 172 IP w/4.17 FIP = 2.8 WAR
A.J. Burnett: 187 IP w/4.50 FIP = 2.3 WAR
Ivan Nova: 116 IP w/5.04 FIP = 0.8 WAR
Sergio Mitre: 72 IP w/4.69 FIP = 0.7 WAR
Freddy Garcia: 31 IP w/4.90 FIP = 0.2 WAR
Andrew Brackman: 63 IP w/5.26 FIP = 0.3 WAR
David Phelps: 94 IP w/5.05 FIP = 0.6 WAR
Hector Noesi: 80 IP w/4.91 FIP = 0.6 WAR

Before we get to tabulating the results, I want to review my methodology a bit here. I kept each pitcher’s leverage at 1.0 to make things even. I didn’t change the CAIRO innings projections at all, even though some of them might be unrealistic. I don’t think Phelps (or Noesi or maybe even Brackman) will get that many innings and I don’t think Garcia will get that few. I’m also assuming in this that every inning pitched by these guys is as a starting pitcher, which may not be likely for the “prospect trio” and Sergio Mitre. That said, some of this stuff isn’t THAT far out of the realm of possibility, so let’s get to the results.

These projections give us 1025 innings pitched by Yankee starters, in which they rack up 12.9 WAR. Both of those numbers beat the 2010 version of Yankee starting pitching. We must note that the 2011 projection includes one more pitcher than the 2010 “rotation” did so I adjusted this with a rough WAR/IP calculation. The 2010 starters were worth 0.0109 WAR/IP and the 2011 rotation projects to be worth 0.0126 WAR/IP.

The rotation was 11th in the American League in fWAR by starters in 2010 and if we plug the projected 2011 rotation into that list, it would have the 9th best SP fWAR in the AL. That’s still below the league median, but, again, better than what the team had in 2010.

We’ve been very doom-and-gloom about the possible rotation for 2011, but these numbers (that, yes, we should take with a grain of salt because they’re projections), should help allay our fears just a little bit. While it seems the 2011 rotation might not quite be league average as a whole, it could still be a two win improvement from 2010. With the added bullpen strength and the still strong lineup, the Yankees look like they’ll have a formidable team in 2011.

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No Pettitte Shouldn't Mean No Patience

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Jan 132011

As you’ve probably heard, Andy Pettitte will not be pitching in 2011 (glove slap RAB). The first thing that ran through your head was probably a stream of expletives. Now, more than any time this offseason, we want the Yankees to make a move. Sign someone. Trade for someone. Do SOMETHING to help the rotation.

I can’t help but be on board with that mentality, but at the same time, we need to realize that the options out there are not all that wonderful. With each player out there–Jeff Francis, Justin Duchscherer, Jeremy Bonderman, Freddy Garcia–there is a good amount of risk. Francis and Duke are health concerns; Bonderman and Garcia are performance concerns. The White Sox looked to be shopping starters earlier in the Hot Stove Season, but we’ve heard nothing on that since, and now it seems unlikely that they will move a starter. Just about all other trade markets have been silent. Even if we don’t want to be patient, we have to be.

The Yankee Front Office–in which I have a lot of faith–likely recognizes the noticeable absence of good starting pitching options. They have also likely taken note of the relief pitching market, which has a stunningly similar lack of effective options (this isn’t to say that there aren’t good relief pitchers out there who could help the Yankees; it’s only to say that other things like cost and compensation will get in the way.). But on the other hand, the Yankee Front Office probably realizes that a rotation that is two fifths Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre isn’t all that great and probably won’t perform incredibly in the A.L. East. And while it’s likely that A.J. Burnett improves from his 2010 season, the only thing we can predict from his right arm is unpredictability. It looks like, though, we’ll have to deal with that rotation for at least some portion of the 2011 season.

As always, and as we all should, I have complete confidence in CC Sabathia. Phil Hughes, with even more experience under his belt, should improve. A.J. Burnett’s 2011 can’t possibly be worse than 2010. Ivan Nova does have some upside, no matter how small, but there’s still some there. Sergio Mitre…well…he gets ground balls? Mitre is really the only one I’m uncomfortable with. Luckily, replacing him at some point during the season shouldn’t be too hard. Like I said, there are some buy low options on the free agent market and at any point during the season, the trade market could develop and the Yankees could snag someone.

It’s not going to be easy, but we need to be steadfast in sticking with the patient outlook we’ve all taken on in the last few months. I’d be willing to bet that the Yankee starting five in October is not the one we’re looking at right now.

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Sabathia to start 2010 slightly less fat

Posted by EJ Fagan at 3:00 pm 4 Responses »
Dec 232010

Via River Ave Blues:

CC Sabathia has dropped 15 pounds through a combination of cardio workouts and weight training this offseason and is aiming to drop 15 more before Spring Training begins. “I’m turning 30 this year, getting a little older,” he joked. “Hopefully [the weight loss] will take some pressure off my knee and extend my career.” Sabathia had surgery to repair a partially torn meniscus in his right knee after the season, but his rehab was complete in less than a month and he’s well into his offseason routine and playing some light catch.

Is this officially the prelude to the first, “He’s in the best shape of his life” spring training stories? Its hard to imagine that a little weight loss can’t hurt Sabathia. There are a lot of big, heavy, muscular players in the majors, but Sabathia definitely has a lot of weight sitting on his 290 lb frame that’s not muscle. Shedding that, as Sabathia says here can help.

It reminds me of one of my more favorite stories about David Wells. Sabathia is a big, fat guy, but he’s not unathletic. We use the term athletic frequently to describe all sorts of things – how fast a person is, how many tools they have, how physically strong they are – but that’s not the only way to approach it.

The question came up on ESPN one day. Who is the most athletic professional athlete out there? Some interesting names came up – Lebron James, Ichiro Suzuki, Alex Rodriguez. But one commentator immediately said Tiger Woods – Woods has been and will be again the most dominant golfer of his time with few players coming particularly close. The discussion continued – Tiger Woods himself will admit that he’s good at nothing but golf. He played quite a bit of pick up basketball, but got his ass kicked by tons of non-professional athletes.

This is where David Wells came in. David Wells does not have the physique of Tiger Woods. He’s not dominate in his sport like he was, or even like his teammates Roger Clemens or Derek Jeter. He wasn’t as fast as Alfonso Soriano, and probably couldn’t throw as hard as Raul Mondesi. But David Wells one thing David Wells could do was kick everyone’s ass at pick up basketball. The big, fat guy who drank and ate like Homer Simpson was in that way the best athlete on the Yankees dynasty teams.

I bet that C.C. Sabathia is a lot like David Wells in that way. I bet he could smoke Alex Rodriguez in a game of 1 on 1 basketball. He probably has the hand-eye coordination, balance, and instinct that allowed David Wells to pitch very effectively into his late-30s and 40s. Its what fueled his fantastic control throughout his career, even though he didn’t have the physical talent of a lot of other pitchers out there. Sabathia has a lot more physical talent than Wells – he throws harder – but I bet he also has that same innate athleticism that Wells had. It bodes well for his career as he starts to get older.

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CC Says He Will Not Opt Out After 2011 Season

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 3 Responses »
Dec 102010

Jim Baumbach with the money quote:

CC Sabathia says he won’t opt out after next season regardless of how much money Cliff Lee gets. “It’s got nothing to do with that.”

Additionally, CC spoke to Jill Martin at halftime of a Knicks game the other night, and RAB transcribed his response to a question about the opt-out:

“I signed up for seven years, and it’s a good organization. We have a chance to win a championship every year. I think that was an easy decision.”

I would love to take CC at his word and celebrate his decision, but he may come to realize that he would be leaving a ton of money on the table and change his mind before the opt-out deadline. Let’s assume that Cliff Lee gets a 7 year deal with a similar AAV to CC’s. Lee is a year older than CC will be next offseason, so if CC has another strong year he can expect a similar deal on next year’s market. That means that remaining in his current contract assumes that when his deal expires at age 34, he will be able to get more than a 3 year deal at 23 million dollars per year. That is a very risky assumption that I think most agents would counsel against.

There are obviously concerns other than money at issue here, but let’s not make it like CC has this deep attachment to New York. He is a West Coast boy who likely would happily move to L.A. if the Angels offered him a huge deal next offseason. New York is not the only place that he can be happy, win, and get paid, and I think there is at least a decent chance that he realizes that and becomes a free agent in the 2011 offseason. It will be very interesting to see how the Yankees approach him if he does choose to opt-out.

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Looking Ahead

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 6 Responses »
Nov 292010

We’re all focused on the present. The Yankees have a bunch of pending transactions. They’ve made an offer to Derek Jeter; they’ll probably do the same to Mariano Rivera and Cliff Lee shortly. I’m sure there are other signings and trades that the front office is mulling over right now, too. But what about next year? There are some interesting personnel decisions to be made in a year’s time. Let’s run down some of them.

The biggest one involves CC Sabathia. While his contract does run to 2015, CC does have an opt out clause he can use after the 2011 season. No matter what, I think CC is going to exercise this option. I can see him hanging on if he has a bad year just because his value will be a little down. However, if he has an average CC year, I think he’ll opt out. If he does, the Yankees could just let him walk, or try to renegotiate at a lower AAV. While he’s been nothing but reliable in his career, CC will be approaching his mid thirties. Maybe the Yankees will want to let someone else pay for Sabathia’s decline phase.

Jorge Posada’s four year deal is up after 2011. Hopefully, this one won’t be an issue. Jorge will ride off into the sunset (hopefully to a sunset in Cooperstown) and Jesus Montero (happy belated birthday, Jesus!) takes over. Whether or not he retires, though, I’d bet on 2011 being Jorge’s last year with the Yankees. The only way I see him coming back is if he really mashes the ball as a DH and Jesus Montero can handle catching 120+ times a year, letting Jorge DH full time.

After 2011, Robinson Cano has a $14MM club option with a $2MM buy out. This is going to be a tough one. Cano just had his best season and it’s unlikely for him to repeat it. He’s still the best second baseman in the A.L., though. Unless he just tanks or gets injured, I’m relatively sure the Yankees will pick up Robbie’s option.

Like Cano, Nick Swisher has an option for the 2012 season ($10.25MM) with a $1MM buy out. The OF FA class of 2012 doesn’t look particularly strong and Swisher’s got a skill set that should age well. He’s also gotten himself into very good shape and doesn’t have a body that is likely to break down. I’d bet on the Yankees picking up that relatively cheap option and keeping Nick on patrol in YSIII’s right field.

This isn’t worth discussing much, but let’s give it one sentence. Damaso Marte has a $4MM option for 2012 with a $0.25MM buyout; it will be bought out.

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Historical Flotsam And Jetsam: Mantle, Moose, CC

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 13 Responses »
Nov 222010

A few interesting historical and statistical bits of data came to my attention lately, and I thought I would share them:

1) In Steve’s posts on Derek Jeter a few days ago, he compared Jeter to Mickey Mantle, and noted that Mantle’s decline greatly hurt the club in 1965-1968. In an ensuing discussion that took place on GReader, Matt Bouffard of Fack Youk pointed out that Mantle’s decline has become overstated among pundits and Yankees fans. To quote:

Mickey Mantle’s final four seasons:

1965: 2.9 fWAR, 2.0 bWAR, 137 OPS+, .371 wOBA
1966: 3.8 fWAR, 3.7 bWAR, 170 OPS+, .402 wOBA
1967: 4.4 fWAR, 4.1 bWAR, 149 OPS+, .373 wOBA
1968: 3.9 fWAR, 3.6 bWAR, 142 OPS+, .362 wOBA

When I expressed surprise over the high quality of those numbers due to my impression that Mantle had totally fallen off a cliff at the end of his career, Matt had this to say:

I guess the issue of Mantle’s performance depends on your perspective. There’s no doubt it declined, but there’s no way he could continue to put up 6 or 7+ WAR a year, let alone his 10+ WAR seasons, particularly considering the toll that injuries and hard living took on his body. So in that regard he was a shell of his former self.

However, he was still a very much above average to elite ball player. His traditional numbers did take a dive after ’64, but that had far more to do with the second dead ball era than it did with his age, injuries, and decline. Mantle hit a combined .241 over his last two seasons, but the league averages for those two years were just .236 and .230. And he still had so much power and plate discipline that he finished second in the league in walks both years and 5th and 3rd in OBP.

Personally I’m of the opinion that Mantle probably wasn’t quite as great as his OPS+ says he was over those last two years. Plate discipline remains, whether offense is suppressed or not, so I think some metrics overvalue all the walks he took.

It is a testament to Mantle that despite being hobbled by various ailments by the end of his career, he was still able to perform at a high level. If Derek Jeter’s decline looks anything like Mantle’s, his next contract would not be nearly the disaster many are expecting it to be.

2) In a story about Cy Young voting injustices, Cliff Corcoran said the following:

Just ask Mike Mussina, the pitcher most likely to be harmed by that wins-based voting. Mussina should have won the AL award over his teammate Clemens in 2001, but instead ended his career without a Cy Young. For a lesser pitcher that would have been a simple disappointment, but for Mussina, a borderline Hall of Fame candidate, that could prove to be a crucial omission from his resume when he comes up for election in 2014.

My first reaction was to have the 17-year old version of me well up and dispute the claim, remembering the insane 20-1 start to Roger’s season. However, a closer look at the numbers quelled that urge, as Mussina was clearly the better pitcher by almost any available metric, and got a 5th place finish for his efforts.

Clemens: 5.4 WAR, 20-3, 3.51 ERA, 220.1 IP, 213 K, 1.26 WHIP, 0CG, 0SHO
Mussina: 6.5 WAR, 17-11, 3.15 ERA, 228.2 IP, 214 K, 1.07 WHIP, 4CG, 3SHO

That is not even that close. As Corcoran notes, the Yankees scored 5.74 runs per game for Clemens, but just 4.21 runs per game for Mussina. That was the difference between winning the award and first place, and that result will likely hurt Mussina’s Hall of Fame chances. Also, not to horn in on Matt’s grand cause, but go compare the numbers of Mussina and Tom Glavine. Mussina was the better pitcher by most measures, yet Glavine’s willingness to hang around until he reached 300 wins makes him a significantly more likely candidate to be voted in quickly. I think Mussina will get in eventually, but will have to linger on the ballot for a while and get Blyleven-type support before he makes it.

3) CC Sabathia has been really good for quite a long time. You can make the argument that he has been one of the two or three best pitchers in baseball over the last 5 seasons, with quality and durability being the criteria for eligibility for that title. This article by Cliff Corcoran inspired me to go look at the WAR leaderboards for the last 5 seasons. Cliff looked at the AL top 10 in SNLVAR over the last few seasons, while I expanded the look to 5 seasons and top 15 in the two leagues combined.

It turns out that only two pitchers have been in the top 15 in Fangraphs WAR in every season over the last 5 years: Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia. Using BB-Ref WAR, no one makes that list in all 5 seasons, but CC did qualify in 4 seasons (missed in 2009, was 21st). The only other pitcher to qualify in that many seasons? Again, Roy Halladay. While these criteria obviously exclude some of the best pitchers due to either injury, youth, one poor season, or other factors, they do illustrate the consistent excellence that CC has provided.

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Felix Wins Cy Young, CC Finishes 3rd

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 13 Responses »
Nov 182010

From the BBWAA:

Seattle Mariners righthander Felix Hernandez may have had trouble posting victories in 2010, but he was a convincing winner in the voting for the American League Cy Young Award. Hernandez, known as “King Felix,” was crowned despite posting a victory total that was the lowest for any winner in either league among starting pitchers in a full season and matched the lowest for a winning starter in any season.

Pitching for a team that averaged only 3.2 runs per game, Hernandez compiled a 13-12 record with a league-leading 2.27 ERA in 34 starts. He also led the league in innings (249 2/3) and finished second in strikeouts with 232, one behind Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim righthander Jered Weaver.

CC Sabathia finished in 3rd place, right behind David Price of the Rays. Felix won the award fairly comfortably, receiving 21 of 28 first place votes, with Price nabbing 4 and CC the remaining 3. The remaining pitchers to receive votes were, in order of finish: Lester, Weaver, Buchholz, Lee, Soriano, Cahill, Soria, Liriano, and Verlander.

Felix was a deserving winner, and I have no major issues with how the voting shook out. I likely would have had Cliff Lee and Francisco Liriano higher than they finished, but I do not have a huge problem with writers recognizing other pitchers with 4th and 5th place votes. Congratulations to CC Sabathia on an excellent season, and hopefully he can move up a few spots on this list in 2011.

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Can Lefties In The Rotation Help Montero Adjust?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 10 Responses »
Nov 162010

With Jesus Montero being given a chance to win the starting catcher’s job in spring training, the development of his defense has become an important issue facing the Yankees going into 2011. A few days ago, Joel Sherman raised a point that many have brought up:

The Yankees, for example, want Montero to win this job. But he will play at 21 and — at best — has a lot of rough defensive edges. Last year it took him half a season as among the youngest players in the International League to gain comfort and shine at Triple-A. So the same growing pains should be expected in the majors, at the least. Will the Yankees tolerate such growing pains when they have championship aspirations?

In terms of offense, Montero will largely be taking plate appearances that belonged to Frankie Cervelli, so I think the club and the fans can handle some growing pains in that area. However, considering that there have been significant doubts about his ability to field his position, a disastrous start behind the plate could make for a major blow to both his confidence and his value. I do think that if the Yankees are able to sign Cliff Lee and bring back Andy Pettitte, they can set up a catching rotation that would help ease Montero into the big leagues.

The element of a catcher’s game that tends to get noticed the most by fans is his ability to handle the running game. A catcher who is being run on constantly will be deemed an awful catcher who is turning singles into doubles by dint of his slow and inaccurate arm. One thing that helps slow down a running game no matter the talent of the receiver is to have a left-handed pitcher on the mound.

Right-handed pitchers faced 133,598 batters in 2010, and allowed 2306 stolen bases against 834 caught stealing (73.4% success rate). That means 3140 attempted steals, or one attempt every 42.5 plate appearances. Conversely, lefties faced 51,927 batters and allowed 653 steals to 295 runners caught (69% success rate). That means 948 attempted steals, or one attempt every 54.8 plate appearances. While these stats do not account for a variety of factors, they do suggest that the idea that lefties help diminish the opponent’s running game is accurate. Runners steal less frequently and at a lower success rate when a left-hander is on the mound.

Taking that fact into account, the Yankees should help ease Montero into the major league catching position by allowing him to catch all of the lefties in the rotation. Hopefully, there will be 3 of them, all of them very good pitchers who limit baserunners to begin with. Cliff Lee has seen an average of 10 baserunners attempt to steal on him per season, while Andy Pettitte is a pickoff artist who averages 18 attempts against. CC Sabathia averages 23, but that number is skewed by 2 poor seasons to starts his career, and he is typically somewhere around 18-20. By comparison, righty pitchers such Tim Lincecum, Carl Pavano, and Jered Weaver had 30+ attempts against them in 2010, and AJ Burnett was on the hill for a whopping 42 attempts this past season.

The Yankees can have Montero catch most of the starts by Sabathia, Lee, and Pettitte, assuming the latter two sign. Jorge Posada would catch Phil Hughes, while Frankie Cervelli can handle AJ Burnett. The idea is not to hide Montero or have him do this for his entire career. Rather, this is an attempt to have Montero adjust to catching at the major league level by working with pitchers that can help the limit the damage that his inexperience and weaknesses might otherwise cause. Once Jesus feels comfortable behind the plate, the team can move to a different arrangement.

What do you think of this idea?

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How Lee's Deal Will Impact CC Sabathia

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 8 Responses »
Nov 082010

CC Sabathia has been fairly excellent in his first two years as a Yankee. He has given the Yankees 467 innings of 3.27 ERA ball, and carried their rotation in the 2009 postseason. It is hard to be disappointed with his performance thus far. As such, most Yankees fans are hoping that he does not opt out of his contract after the 2011 season, as is his right. He has said on a number of occasions that he loves it in New York and will refrain from using his option, but we have heard that before from players such as Alex Rodriguez and AJ Burnett only to be surprised when they exercised their opt-outs. If CC has another good year in 2011, he may very well choose to re-enter the free agent fray, and the pending Cliff Lee deal may impact his decision.

CC’s status after 2011 is likely to be similar to that of Lee after 2010. CC will be a year younger than Lee is now, but he also has a lot more mileage on his arm and has been a bit worse that Lee over the last few seasons. As such, I would expect them to get fairly similar deals, such that the Lee deal could be an excellent template for CC and his agent to use to weigh whether it makes sense for the big left-hander to test the free agent waters.

Sabathia is due 23 million dollars a year from 2012-2015, meaning that he will have a 4 year deal worth 92 million dollars in hand when the 2011 season ends. If Cliff Lee does significantly better than that deal, and gets something along the lines of 5 years and 115 million dollars, CC might opt-out and sell himself as a younger version of Lee with a more extensive track record. However, if Lee does significantly worse than that number, I would expect CC to take the contract that he has in hand rather than risk the uncertainties of the free agent market. Complicating matters is that the Yankees may be the team that signs Lee, in which case they will have insurance against losing Sabathia. Jumping into a free agent market in which the Yankees are not a motivated player would be a dangerous move for Sabathia to make.

Ultimately, I think CC Sabathia will remain a Yankee for a long time. However, Cliff Lee’s new contract could muddy the waters and provide an impetus for CC to try and cash in one last time. Keep an eye on the value of that contract relative to CC’s existing deal, as it could provide a framework in which to evaluate Sabathia’s impending decision.

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