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Sox Surprisingly Sign Speedster

Posted by Eric Schultz at 12:27 am 10 Responses »
Dec 092010

In a display of ninja-like stealth that would make even Brian Cashman proud, the Boston Red Sox made a big acquisition today.  Our old friend Peter Abraham broke the news, reporting that the Sawx have signed Rays OF Carl Crawford to a 7-year 142 million dollar contract.  This is a big signing for Boston, and somewhat of a surprise, as I’m sure many people were expecting Boston to be done with handing out big paychecks after acquiring Adrian Gonzalez (and his reported Teixeira-esque extension demands).

Crawford will be a nice addition to the Boston lineup, likely hitting in the 2-hole behind Jacoby Ellsbury, and ahead of Pedroia, Gonzalez, and Youkilis.  His speed and on-base ability will allow him to score a lot of runs in front of Boston’s big boppers, and give Yankee catchers fits on the basepaths.  He’s also a great defensive outfielder, though his defensive value will be limited at home (in Fenway’s small left field).  Before the Jason Werth signing, if somebody told me that Carl Crawford, whom I consider a very good player but not a star, would be getting 20 million/year for 7 years, I would have been shocked.  After the Werth deal, this one doesn’t look quite as bad for the Sox.  I am curious what this deal means for  Ryan Kalish, who was probably penciled in as the starting leftfielder after making a good impression in his debut last year.

The signing does put a number of other pieces in motion.  We can assume that the Angels (who were very interested in Crawford) will likely focus their attention on Adrian Beltre.  I imagine the Angels will wind up with Beltre, barring a Werth-esque surprise bid from another squad.  I could also see Boston pursuing a Type-A reliever (like Scott Downs) because they would only have to surrender a 2nd-round pick for the signing.

The addition of another lefty hitter (who does not hit as well against lefties) in the Boston lineup will likely increase the sense of urgency that the Yankees face to sign Cliff Lee, though I’m not sure his demands/price will be substantially changed.  The Crawford signing also takes Crawford off the market for the Yankees, who might have considered him as a fall-back should Lee wind up returning to the Rangers or going elsewhere.  I still think Lee is likely to end up in Pinstripes, as I doubt the Rangers or another team will match the Yankees’ alleged 6-year 140 million offer.

What does this signing mean for the division next year?  Certainly, Boston’s lineup will be improved, and top-to-bottom its depth is comparable to the Yankees’.  I might put Boston’s lineup slightly ahead of the Yankees’ at this point (mostly because of the age of Jeter, A-Rod and Posada), though with a Cliff Lee signing and an Andy Pettitte return (admittedly, neither are guaranteed at this point), I would take the Yankee rotation and bullpen over Boston’s.  Are the Yankees doomed?  Far from it.  It will definitely be an exciting race for the division, and with the Rays likely taking a step back ( losing Crawford, Pena, and Soriano), the team that doesn’t win the division will still be in good shape for a Wild Card berth.  Remember, they still have to play the games, and ultimately, the season will probably come down to which team suffers the fewest significant injuries.

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If not Lee, what's Plan B?

Posted by Steve S. at 9:06 am 4 Responses »
Nov 062010

You probably already know by now that after Cliff Lee, there’s a huge drop off in quality of the remaining available starters, whether via free agent or trade. I discussed it in my post on Montero yesterday, and Matt did as well. But what if the new Rangers ownership sells Lee (and his wife) on living in Texas, close to his Arkansas home, and decides to blow Lee away in terms of years? What if the Yanks (with their aging roster) decide that they want don’t half their 2013 payroll tied up in guys over the age of 35? It’s hard to imagine the Yanks ever being outbid for a player they really want, but don’t forget this is a new ownership in place under Hal Steinbrenner, so previous track record doesn’t necessarily apply. Also, they’re nowhere hear as desperate for Lee as they were for Sabathia in 2008. Back then, they were coming off their first year of missing the playoffs since the early 1990′s. This year, they’re coming off a berth in the ALCS.

So what’s their Plan B? ESPN’s Buster Olney provides some clues. In a Friday radio interview with 1050 ESPN’s Michael Kay, he says the Yanks have “a very finite view” of what they plan to spend for the 32 year old pitcher, and that plan B for the Yanks would be to pursue Carl Crawford.  This contradicts a recent report by the Daily News’ Mark Feinsand that stated the Yanks have no plans to pursue the former Rays left fielder. Although it’s possible both reports are accurate, where the Feinsand report is in the context of a Lee signing. The idea behind signing Crawford would be that since there’s no high end pitching available, they simply upgrade their offense and move forward for 2011.

Or would it? Could signing Crawford signal a trade opportunity? Signing Crawford would give the Yankees a surplus of outfielders. You could slide Brett Gardner into his natural CF position (and maximize his value defensively) and offer Curtis Granderson or Nick Swisher in a deal for a starter. Or you could simply slide Crawford into LF and deal off Brett Gardner. As I discussed yesterday, the only team with excess starting pitching is the newly minted World Series champion San Francisco Giants. They need a 1B and LF with journeyman Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell both going free agent. Nate Schierholtz is still under team control, but gave them little as their everyday RF in 2010. CF Aaron Rowand played so poorly in 2010 that the team started Andres Torres in the playoffs. Could signing Crawford could pave the way for a  deal where the Yanks build a deal around (any) one of their outfielders for someone like Jonathan Sanchez? Or even better, a blockbuster deal where you add Montero, who most scouts view as a 1B, and pry away someone like Matt Cain? Perhaps, Matt Cain has a balloon payment at the end of his contract extension where he makes 7.5 mil for 2011 and 15 mil for 2012. A mid-market payroll team like the Giants could decide to sell him now and fill some needs rather than have their backs to the wall in 2011 with Lincecum (18 mil) Zito (18.5 mil) and Cain (15 mil) eating up half their payroll. But I’m just speculating, the point I wanted to make is that there would be a good match between the two teams. If the Yanks think the Lee market is going beyond where they want to spend, I wouldn’t panic. There’s always a Plan B with the Yanks, and unlike past years they have the trade chips to make a deal happen.

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Yanks To Splurge On Free Agents?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 7 Responses »
Oct 262010

Going into the 2008-2009 free agency period, it was pretty clear that the Yankees were going to make a big splash on the free agent market. The club had missed the playoffs in 2008, and had a number of contracts coming off the books. With a large need at the top of the rotation, it was clear that the team would make a run at CC Sabathia and either Derek Lowe or AJ Burnett. After signing Sabathia and Burnett and trading for Nick Swisher, it seemed like the Yankees were basically done retooling. However, Brian Cashman looked at the upcoming free agent markets and decided that Mark Teixeira was too good to pass up, and the Yankees swooped in and nabbed him at the last moment. All three free agents were instrumental in the Yankees 27th championship, and their presence on the roster allowed the Yankees to bypass a weak free agent market in 2009-2010.

Now, as the calendar begins to inch towards the 2010-2011 free agency period, I am left wondering whether we may be in store for a repeat of 2008-2009. While the Yankees do not have many contracts coming off their ledger, they may look to next season’s free agent crop and realize that this year’s market may be the only opportunity to upgrade for the next few seasons. Outside of first basemen (Pujols, Gonzalez, Fielder), there are no elite players expected to be available next offseason.

While everybody expects the Yankees to go after Cliff Lee, most are not quite as certain that they will have interest in players such as Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford. Neither player will be cheap, and the upgrade relative to Brett Gardner or Nick Swisher is likely not large enough to justify the cost. However, Brian Cashman might take a look at his aging offense and come to the conclusion that these free agents might be the only solutions on the horizon. While it seems odd that one would upgrade an older offense by replacing some of its younger members, those are really the only positions at which the Yankees can upgrade, due to their older players being entrenched or more difficult to replace.

I do not think the Yankees will sign Crawford or Werth, and I would not be surprised if Brian Cashman pulls off a Swisher type trade that obviates the need to hand out more than one big free agent contract this offseason. Then again, I was shocked when they signed Teixeira. If the Yankees look at future free agent crops and find them wanting, they may choose to splurge on quality now rather than wait for something less expensive to develop down the road.

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Discussion: OF/DH Rotation for 2011

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 29 Responses »
Aug 252010

Last night, our very own Moshe Mandel dropped an intriguing tweet about the future of the Yankee outfield and DH situation.

At first glance, I don’t necessarily agree with Moshe here. I like Carl Crawford, but I do have doubts about him going forward. His power has been just around average for his career (.176 this year, .145 for his career) and his carer 5.4% BB rate is uninspiring (though he has been above 7% the last two years). Still, though, he’s a good hitter and plays very good defense. With an OF of Crawford/Granderson/Gardner across, the Yankees would be Death to Flying Things East.

Of course, though, this muddies up the DH situation. I’m of the mindset–Moshe disagrees, and I see his point–that Jesus Montero will break camp with the 2011 Yankees. If this happens, he and Jorge Posada should split the catching and DHing duties. In Moshe’s above scenario (if we assume JM is w/the team in 4/2011), this would leave Nick Swisher out in the cold. Moshe, though, disagrees with me and thinks Swisher could DH and play the field against LHP while Granderson or Gardner sits.

There is another angle that could placate both of us. Brett Gardner has played very well and improved his stock. If there is one player the Yankees could sell high on in a trade, it’s Brett Gardner. If the Yankees sign Crawford, I wouldn’t be surprised if this route was taken. That would make the OF Crawford/Granderson/Swisher, which is good offensively and also great defensively. I’m not saying I WANT this to happen, but it COULD happen.

I still think the Yankees should avoid Crawford and use that money to go after Cliff Lee. Gardner has proved himself to be at least an average regular with the bat and a superb defender. As long as he remains cheap, he’ll be very valuable for the Yankees. I would have no problem with the Yankees starting him in LF next year with Granderson and Swisher (both under contract) alongside him.

What do you guys think?

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THT: Can Gardner Help Yankees Avoid Shelling Out For Crawford?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 13 Responses »
May 062010


From The Hardball Times:

Just in case you weren’t aware, Gardner is hitting a ridiculous .346 this season with a staggering .427 OBP, 12 stolen bases, 21 runs scored, and a impressive 10 to 9 BB/K ratio. Sure it’s early, but those are some mighty impressive numbers from a guy who many thought was nothing more than a fourth outfielder. As long as he stays healthy and productive, there is every reason to think that Gardner can steal 50-60 bases this season while scoring over 100 runs.

Obviously the long term implications of Gardner’s hot start are yet to be determined. But if Gardner continues to hit and utilize his speed on the base-paths, then it’s possible that the Yankees already have a younger and much cheaper version of Carl Crawford. While Gardner has not shown Crawford’s power to date, he brings the same dynamics to the table that Crawford does, namely speed and athleticism.

Then again, Gardner’s hot start could be just that: a hot start. But his performance at the dish has to make us think-or at least reconsider-whether or not the Yankees will need to invest $90-$100 million in Carl Crawford this winter when they already have -gulp- Brett Gardner.

I have often expressed the belief that Cliff Lee, rather than Crawford, would be the Yankees prime target this offseason. In fact, I would not be shocked if the Yankees started to go year-to-year with the position, saving their money for top starters and position players at premium positions. This is what I said in December:

“Holliday is likely a better player than Carl Crawford, and I do not see any superior left fielders becoming available in the next few years. As such, it seems clear that the Yankees are doing their best to maintain some semblance of financial flexibility. To do so, it is important to avoid doling out large contracts for players at non-premium positions.

Piecing all of this together, it means that Brian Cashman likely sees left field as a position that he can fill regularly with players on 1 or 2 year contracts, and save the big money for pitchers and players that play premium positions. This is what I mean when I say that the plan in left field is no plan at all. The long term vision of the club does not include a left fielder, and probably does not include a right fielder either. Those players will be added every couple of years on reasonable contracts to fill holes, while the major contracts will be reserved for the Joe Mauer’s and Felix Hernandez’s of the world.”

In that sense, I am not so sure that Gardner’s emergence, if it holds up, is helping the Yankees avoid a mega-deal to Carl Crawford. Rather, having Gardner in the outfielder will help the Yankees avoid having to scrounge on the free agent market each year for a veteran to fill that spot.

What do you think? Is Crawford a target? Will he be one if Gardner continues to play well?

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At What Point Would The Rays Trade Their Stars?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 6 Responses »
Apr 202010


I hate to give credence to anything that John Kruk said or wrote, but he penned an article for ESPN today that provides a jumping off point for an interesting discussion:

It’s no secret that Tampa Bay is a small-market team with a small payroll ($68.2 million, which is 22nd in baseball). The Rays have a great team. Not a good team, a great team. But are they contenders or pretenders? Crawford and Pena are free agents this year, so if the front office believes the Rays can win with those guys, they’re going to keep them. If the front office thinks there’s a chance the Rays won’t, then it will get rid of them.

There’s no pressure on the Red Sox, Yankees or Tampa Bay’s players — the pressure is on the front office. What are they going to do? Let’s say it comes close to the trade deadline and they are either a game or two up, or a game or two behind whoever is in first. What do you do then? Do you ride it out and say, ‘Hey we can win with these guys.’ Or do you throw your season away by trading Crawford and Pena?

I think Kruk’s question is silly, as Andrew Friedman is almost certain to keep his club intact if they are within a handful of games of a playoff spot, let alone first place. And considering the Rays roster and hot start, this may be a moot point, as they seem likely to remain in contention all season. That said, I do wonder at what point they would blow things up if the season does happen to go south. Would Friedman trade Pena or Crawford if the Rays are 5 games out of a playoff spot at the end of July? At what point does building for the future preempt the chance to make a run at a playoff spot? I think 5 or 6 games, presumably with the Yankees and Red Sox ahead of them, would seem like too large a gap to make up and would justify the Rays turning their thoughts towards building for the next few seasons.

Do you agree? Is 5-6 games too narrow a gap?

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Sunday Links and Commentary

Posted by Steve S. at 9:24 am 7 Responses »
Apr 112010

I haven’t done one of these in a while, and there’s loads of good stuff out there from the past few days. Here goes-

CC recruiting CC-

The shark known as CC Sabathia already is circling Carl Crawford. The two became friends through a financial advisor after the Rays drafted Crawford out of high school in 1999. Now, Sabathia would like Crawford to be his Yankees teammate, too. “I joke around with him all the time about that — all the time,” Sabathia says, laughing. “I told him I’ve got an extra room in the house, whatever he needs.” Sabathia also is tight with Mariners lefty Cliff Lee, another potential free agent, but no way the Yankees can sign both, right? “Who knows?” Sabathia responds. “Who ever thought me, Tex and A.J. would show up in the same year, too?”

Signing both is a stretch if the Yanks plan to keep their current commitment to stay around the 200 mil payroll mark. Let’s walk through this. They have Jeter and Mariano to re-sign before they even any consider free agents. They already have 118 mil in commitments for 2011, Jeter and Mo figure to push that number to around 155. Pick up Nick Johnson’s option and you’re at 160 mil. Andy is leaning towards retirement and Javier Vazquez is a free agent, so you’ll need two starters next year. Bringing back Vazquez will easily cost around 12-14 mil, so now you’re at 172-174 and still looking for a starter. Preferably a Lefty to replace Andy. Cliff Lee will get 18-20 mil even in a down market, putting you at 190-194 mil. That leaves you enough room to fill out your roster and enter the season around 195-200 mil, but not enough to sign Carl Crawford, who figures to get 12-15 mil on the open market. Signing both Lee and Crawford pushes you to around 210-215 mil, which is a bit further than I think the current regime will be willing to go. Especially since they already have a speedy LF named Brett Gardner on the team. As things currently stand, I think it will be an either-or situation with Lee and Crawford, but not both.

Yankees’ defense has CC’s back in bid

ST. PETERSBURG — Without some help behind him, there was no way that CC Sabathia could have still been out there in the eighth inning on Saturday, when the Rays finally were able to slip one through the Yankees’ defense.

Sabathia’s latest bid for his first career no-hitter got some serious help from the corner infielders, as Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez each made terrific plays to keep the line moving until Kelly Shoppach finally singled with four outs left to go in New York’s 10-0 victory.

Whether Sabathia actually would have finished what he started is another story, as manager Joe Girardi planned to bring in Dave Robertson for the ninth inning, but a combined no-hitter still would have been something to behold.

First, the notion that Girardi would have pulled CC out at 111 pitches with a no-hitter going into the 9th is absurd on its face. I understand what Girardi’s trying to do there, he doesn’t want to make it look like CC failed and he wants to emphasize the long term over the short. But if any manager ever torpedoed a players chance to make history, especially a player as prominent as CC Sabathia is to the NY Yanks, he would quickly find himself unemployed. This is just Girardi not being very smooth with the press, which we all know isn’t his strong suit.

That being said, it’s really fun to watch this team play Baseball. After years of watching Knobloch, Giambi, Damon, Sheffield, and others who were all-bat/no glove players, it’s nice to see a team filled with players that can perform on both sides of the game.

Take a walk, Nick

Harold Reynolds, MLB Network analyst, admires the judicious eye of a guy like Johnson, and knows that having runners on base is a good thing, but he also believes on-base percentage is “getting a little overhyped.”

“In certain circumstances, I want guys swinging the bat,” Reynolds says. “I don’t want them walking. If it’s late in the game, I don’t want (Jorge) Posada walking. That doesn’t do me any good. I think what we’ve done with Moneyball, with fantasy, with the emphasis on on-base percentage is forget that it doesn’t always play into the strategy of the game.”

Reynolds has actually heard people criticize Ichiro for not having a higher on-base percentage. “Wait a minute. He gets 225 hits every year. He’s one of the greatest hitters we have, and (you’re saying) he doesn’t walk enough?” Reynolds says.

Long agrees that on-base percentage is over-rated to a point. “You can’t have a team full of guys who are too patient and go up there just looking to walk,” he says.

Count me in with Kevin Long on this one, and I think Reynolds is over-generalizing here. Johnson is the Yanks #2 hitter, there aren’t many situations I can envision where I don’t want him to pass the bat to Mark Teixeira or Alex Rodriguez. If you had a lesser hitter batting behind him in a game winning situation, then yes, I want him swinging the bat. But that’s not the case with Nick. He can walk all he wants as far as I’m concerned. The only I can dream up where he shouldn’t is if the Yanks are down a run with a runner in scoring position, it’s late in a game, there are 2 outs, and the pitcher on the mound absolutely owns Tex. But I can’t of many pitchers who do. Reynold’s point only stands in a tiny handful of situations over the course of a season, if that.

Yankees, Mets farm systems must develop pitching depth

In the last week, it became more important that Mike Pelfrey matures into a top-flight starter for the Mets, and Phil Hughes does the same for the Yankees. In the last week, it became more problematic that Jenrry Mejia is in the bullpen — and maybe Joba Chamberlain, too.

That is because in the last week Josh Beckett signed a long-term extension with the Red Sox and Yovani Gallardo did the same with the Brewers. That continued a trend of diluting the starting pitching free-agent market in upcoming years. It was not long ago, for example, that Beckett, Roy Halladay and Tim Hudson were going to be part of the free-agent class after this season.

Now just Cliff Lee is the lone elite starter projected into free agency, and he begins this season on the disabled list dealing with foot and oblique issues. The next best is Javier Vazquez, followed by even more dubious pieces such as Jorge De La Rosa, Ted Lilly, Kevin Millwood, Brandon Webb and Jake Westbrook.

It does not get better in subsequent years. There is a dearth of available prime-age aces as teams have more proactively bought out free-agent years with extensions for their elite starters. In the past two offseasons, Kansas City’s Zack Greinke and San Francisco’s Matt Cain have signed through 2012, Florida’s Josh Johnson and the White Sox’s Gavin Floyd through 2013, and Seattle’s Felix Hernandez, Boston’s Jon Lester and Detroit’s Justin Verlander through 2014.

This is nothing new, it just illustrates how unique the opportunity was before last season to acquire Sabathia, Tex and Burnett in the same off season. Brian Cashman was well aware of this and pushed ownership to go the extra mile for Tex, tipping the balance of power in the AL East for years and leaving the Red Sox to spend money AND talent trying to sort out their 1B/3B/C situation. But I disagree with Joel that pitchers won’t become available. Teams don’t always make those moves due to financial concerns, they often make them as part of their overall strategy. The Marlins signing Josh Johnson to an extension may hasten his exit from the team instead of extend it. Zach Grienke may fall into the same category. At a certain point, it simply makes more sense for some teams to trade a player and restock their farm system than it does to hang onto them, because they have many needs and only a few chips to play that can fill them. But of course, in order to make deals you need a good farm system with MLB ready talent. So Joel’s overall point still stands.

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Jayson Werth vs Carl Crawford

Posted by Steve S. at 6:48 am 38 Responses »
Mar 242010

I must admit I was a bit surprised at the reaction I got on my Carl Crawford piece from yesterday. People seem to think more highly of Carl than his numbers would suggest, and underrate Werth for some reason. So I wanted to take a minute to lay out some numbers, offensive and defensive, and then discuss contract status.

First, let’s look at both players offensively. I’m going to use ESPN’s 3 year split, since both players have made strides in recent years and the 3 year numbers are more representative of who they are at this point in their careers. Here goes:

Jayson Werth-

Three year (2007-2009) Batting Splits
Overall AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Total 1244 214 343 53 7 68 215 192 14 348 47 5 .276 .376 .494 .870

Carl Crawford-

Three year (2007-2009) Batting Splits
Overall AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Total 1633 258 490 77 27 34 205 113 15 271 135 33 .300 .349 .443 .792

No surprises here. Werth is way ahead in power numbers and OBP while Crawford blows away Jayson in Hits and Stolen Bases. It’s worth noting that Werth has produced his totals in 310 fewer Plate Appearances. Jayson has also stolen 20 bases each of the past 2 seasons, so his knees can’t be in as bad shape as some have tried to suggest.

Now let’s look at both players defensively using UZR/150:

Crawford-

2007 -1.4

2008 +25.6

2009 +17.5

Werth-

2007 +35.3

2008 +35.3

2009 +3.4

Of course, Werth plays the more valuable defensive position in RF. It’s also interesting to note that Crawford has played a grand total of 54 games in CF in his 8 year career. It’s not as if he was always blocked and hasn’t had an opportunity, the Rays 2005 starting CF was Damon Hollins and up to 2007 it was the often-injured Rocco Baldelli. The fact that he’s played those 54 games tells me they’ve moved him around at times, they just never seem to stick with it. Must be a reason. I suspect there’s something else going here, he probably doesn’t pick up the ball well out there, but that’s just a guess. In any case, I wouldn’t assume he can play CF for us, as others do.

Now let’s compare their value using total 3 year WAR and 2010 CHONE projection-

Crawford-11.3 total WAR/3.8 CHONE

Werth-14.6 total WAR/3.2 CHONE

Werth’s CHONE gets pulled down by being fairly useless early in his career, and Crawford’s 3 year WAR gets taken down a bit since he was hurt in 2008 and missed roughly 1/3 of the season. But even if you give him a 50% bump on his 2008 2.7 WAR, that would increase his total to 12.65, still well behind Werth over that period.

Finally, onto contract demands. Of course the marketplace will dictate what either player will get, but given their age (29/31) heading into free agency, it would stand to reason that Crawford will garner the longer deal. A good comp for Werth would be Jason Bay’s 4 year/66 mil deal. Crawford will likely get more years at a lower AAV, something in the 5-6 years 80-90 mil range. Carl’s value could shoot up even further with a big 2010 campaign, especially if he matches last year’s production. If he puts up another 5.5 WAR season, his price tag could soar north of 100 mil.

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Heyman-Crawford Yanks #1 target for 2011

Posted by Steve S. at 8:01 am 12 Responses »
Mar 232010

My favorite rumor-maven is at again, with a new piece in SI detailing the Yanks desire to have Carl Crawford patrolling Left Field in Yankee Stadium when he becomes a free agent after this season. He writes:

Still, as one competing executive says, “The Yankees absolutely love Crawford.”

And what the Yankees love, they usually get.

(snip)

Realistically, the Rays’ best hope might be for the Yankees to concentrate on someone else. But that isn’t very likely. The Yankees determined that they wanted to avoid a two-year deal for Johnny Damon in part because they like Crawford so much. And they will have to like their chances to get him.

The Yankees do like the Phillies’ Jayson Werth, who’s also going to be a free agent at year’s end. Werth has more power, bats right-handed and is proven in right field, the tougher position to fill. But the Yankees still like Crawford better. Part of that comes from seeing him compete in the AL East, and most of it comes from seeing him thrive in the AL East. He’s averaging .297 and 50 stolen bases over his eight-year career.

Frankly, I’m not buying it. I’m sure there are Yankee execs who love Carl, but unless they’re named Brian Cashman it doesn’t mean much. If I’m the Yankee GM and have a choice between Carl Crawford and Jason Werth for a similar deal in terms of length, I’m taking Werth, even if he gets a higher AAV. More pop, better arm, better OBP, better fielder. Just more toolsy than Carl in every area of the game except for speed.

Carl’s value is tied up in his speed, he turns 30 the 1st year you sign him and his OBP has only been above .350 for 2 seasons in an 8-year career. In terms of power, he’s below average by most measures. I just don’t love him going forward, I don’t see any upside potential, and see real possibility of decline. He’s one leg injury away from being a mediocre player.  There are some questions about Werth’s knees, but nothing I’ve seen would be enough to make me pass on a player of his talent.

Don’t get me wrong, Carl’s a really good player. But I prefer the flexibility of signing Werth for Right Field, moving Swisher to Left and letting Nick’s contract expire after 2011. I could bring Nick back on a shorter deal, or target someone else. I generally don’t like signing Left Fielders unless I have to. I like leaving LF open as much as possible for future considerations. You can move aging/declining players there, since it’s the least demanding OF position. By having LF open after 2011, you can target a Right Fielder or Center Fielder as a Free Agent or in a trade, and move Curtis Granderson or Werth to Left if needed. But if you sign Crawford, you’re locked in at the other two spots. Also, Left would be open for Jeter or Alex if need be, both of whom will be in their late 30’s in 2012. Loads of flexibility, which is something I know Brian Cashman values.

We’ve become accustomed to having a regular LF in recent years, but that wasn’t always the case. During the Championship run of the late-90′s, the Yanks trotted out Gerald Williams, Tim Raines, Chad Curtis, Ricky LeDee, and Chuck Knobloch as their Opening Day Left Fielders from 1996-2001. We really didn’t have a player locked in at Left until Hideki Matsui (who George signed) arrived in 2003. Johnny Damon wasn’t signed to play in Left, he was supposed to be our CF, and Damon is a good example of why you value flexibility. If Carl Crawford was locked into LF over the past few seasons, you would have either be stuck with Damon as a defensive liability in Center or forced to make him your DH, a spot already occupied by other aging, injured players like Matsui and Giambi. To quote Mo, The Plan In Left Field Is….No Plan At All? My answer is yes.

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Guest Post: Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford and 2011 Free Agency: Irresponsible Speculation

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 16 Responses »
Mar 182010


The last of our guest posts was done by (sic). Some of you might recognize him from RAB as “the artist formerly known as (sic)” or from twitter as @tafkasic, and you can read more of his work at thebatshatters.blogspot.com. He took a look at the 2011 free agent market and the Yankees’ place within it. It is an entertaining read that I think you will enjoy.

The 2010-2011 offseason could be one of the most exciting Hot Stove periods in recent memory for Yankees fans. Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera will both become free agents, and the contracts of Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez will both expire. Additionally, Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Manny Ramirez, Ted Lilly and Brandon Webb will all become free agents. Will CC and Cliff Lee stand side-by-side in pinstripes as the new New York Knick LeBron James throws out the first pitch of the 2011 season, causing the entire city of Cleveland to light itself on fire? Will they go for shorter contracts on pitchers, and pursue speedster Carl Crawford? Will they package IPK and Melky for Johan Santana? Wait…what?

There are a lot of moving parts, so the best way to attack this is to determine how much cash the Yankees will have to spend, try to hazard a guess at how much Lee and Crawford will earn on the open market, and see if there are any scenarios in which one, or both, fit into the Yankees 2011 payroll.

For the sake of simplicity, I’m going to be making several assumptions. First, I’m assuming that the Yankees resign Jeter for something close to $100M over 5 years. I’m also assuming the Rivera is resigned for $30M over 2 years. Finally, I’m assuming that the 2011 payroll will be in the $200-210M range. The first two are huge assumptions, obviously, but I can’t see those two leaving. The money may be different, but hopefully won’t be too much in excess of what I’m envisioning.

2011 Salary Commitments
Thanks to the invaluable tool at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we see that New York already has $144M committed to the 2011 payroll. When you add my proposed $20M to Jeter and $15M to Rivera, and the payroll is already at $179M. From there, you have to factor in raises for Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, who will become eligible for arbitration for the first time. Using Liriano as a comparison, it won’t be unexpected to see them both pull in $1.5M apiece. This bumps the payroll up to $182M, and I’m going to round it up to $183M to cover raises for Boone Logan, if he’s still around, and for the pre-arb guys like DRob, Aceves and others.

With a budget of $183M, the Yankees will have, at the most, $17-27M to spend.

2011 Free Agents
The premier OF free agent in 2011 will be Carl Crawford. Crawford will be 28 years old at the time of his next deal, and is the owner of a career tripleslash of .295/.335.437, an OPS of .772. This line is a bit misleading, because its weighed down by his first two seasons as a 20 and 21 year old when he posted a line of .274/.304/.364. If you remove that, he’s good for a .300/.342/.456 line. Crawford has averaged 50 steals per year over 7 full seasons and has posted phenomenal defensive numbers over the course of his career in LF.

I can’t envision Crawford earning as much as Holliday, who scored a $120M/7 year deal from the Cardinals. A better comparison might be Jason Bay, even though Crawford and Bay are as different as they come in LF. Bay received a 4 year deal worth $66M, with a $17M vesting option for the 5th year from the Mets, a total value of 83M over 5 years. Still, I expect Crawford’s lack of power to keep the value of his deal low, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him find a new home for a contract of 5 years and 65M, an AAV of 13M. His age, his defense, and his speed will work in his favor, but his lack of power ought to prevent him from earning an eight-digit deal.

Cliff Lee is the biggest starting pitcher to hit the market in 2011. He’s the owner of a career ERA+ of 109, but has seemingly put it all together to become one of the best pitchers in the game. In his last two years, he’s posted a 2.89 ERA over 455 IP, striking out 6.9 batters per nine and walking only 1.5 per nine. His K/BB ratio over that period is one of the best, 4.56. That’s superb. The risk with Lee is his somewhat low K/9, and his age. As a 31 year old free agent, it’s hard to see Lee getting more than five or six years guaranteed, despite the Phillies’ claims that he is looking for “Sabathia-type” money. Instead, I look for Lee to receive a six year deal worth $100M, an AAV of $16.67M. It’s expensive, but it is becoming increasingly rare to see bona fide aces hit the open market in free agency, and Lee’s price may go up even further if the Red Sox sign Josh Beckett to an extension.

Roster Analysis
The most obvious holes in the 2011 roster are starting pitching and LF. Here’s where it gets dicey (as if it weren’t already confusing):

Scenario 1: Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain have successful, injury-free 2010 campaigns, and are considered locks for the 2011 rotation.
In this scenario, the Yankees can simply resign Pettitte to another one-year deal worth around $11M. This would bump payroll to around $194M, and leave around $6-14M to spend elsewhere. With a full rotation, the Yankees could become players for Crawford. Signing him to a $13M AAV deal would max out the payroll for 2011.

Scenario 2: Either Hughes or Joba gets injured or very ineffective in 2010, and is slotted for a spot in the bullpen in 2011.
Here, the Yankees will only have 3 starters under contract for 2011. If they bring back Pettitte for around $11M, they’ll have $6-14M to spend elsewhere, and will need a fifth starter. The Yankees could attempt to pursue Lee, creating a formidable rotation of Sabathia-Lee-Burnett-Pettitte-Joba/Hughes. This would leave them unable to sign Crawford and completely maxed out on budget.

Scenario 3: The Andy Pettitte Era ends
If Pettitte decides to retire, or the Yankees decide to go in a different direction, then any number of things could happen. With a healthy Joba and Hughes in the rotation, the Yankees could bring in Lee for $16.67M per and sit right at the $200M threshold. This would give them a rotation of Sabathia-Lee-Burnett-Chamberlain-Hughes, and leave them with up to $10M to spend elsewhere.

Scenario 4: The Andy Pettitte Era ends and only Joba or Hughes is in the bullpen
If one of Chamberlain or Hughes is in the bullpen, or injured, then the Yankees would still need a fifth starter in addition to Sabathia, Lee, Burnett and Hughes/Joba. Here, we might see the Yankees use Zach McAllister in the 5 spot, or attempt to bring back Vazquez for $10M per year. Other alternatives include Lilly or Webb.

Scenario 5: The Twins fail to resign Joe Mauer
Twins fans, avert your eyes! If Mauer hits the market, all bets are off with Lee and Crawford. The Yankees could offer Mauer a deal of $180M over 8 years, an AAV of $22.5M. Assuming they were able to outbid the Red Sox and ink him to a deal like this, no sure thing, they would see their budget rise to around $205-207M. Accordingly, they would need Joba and Hughes to man the 3 and 4 spots in the rotation, and then attempt to get a 5th starter for cheap. Signing Mauer would also mean the end of the Jesus Montero experiment at catcher, and so the Yankees could shift him to LF and have him split time with Posada at DH. Scenarios like this are why non-Yankee fans hate us so very, very much.

Summary
Personally, I think Scenario 5 is very unlikely. I think the Twins will pony up the dough they’re about to get from their new stadium and sign him to an extension, allowing Twins fans everywhere to come back in off the ledge. That said, I can’t see the Yankees landing both Crawford and Lee. Their payroll is already precipitously high, and management shows no inclination to blow past the $210M ceiling. Of the four remaining scenarios outlined above, I’m fairly excited about #3, even though it involves saying farewell to Andy Pettitte. Signing Lee would provide them with a second ace, and a good hedge against the risk of Sabathia leaving after 2011. The best thing that can happen to the Yankees in the meantime is Joba and Hughes putting together successful 2010 campaigns, which will give the Yankees more flexibility and more options going into the 2010-2011 Hot Stove.

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