Right-handed relief prospect, Mark Melancon, previously hailed as Mariano Rivera’s successor because of his live heater and hard curve, tossed 16 1/3 innings last season posting a 3.86 ERA. A closer look at his numbers indicates a much weaker performance than his ERA suggests, however, as Melancon walked 5.51 batters per nine and only struck out an identical 5.51 batters per nine, leading to a 4.44 FIP. Not too impressive, right? This was obviously an extremely small sample though, a mere handful of nervous rookie innings that were atypical of the work Melancon had done while in the minor leagues. With just over 150 innings pitched in the Yankees’ farm system, the confident righty boasts a 2.54 ERA and a 0.906 WHIP, numbers which are understandable given his dominant minor-league peripherals (9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9). Basically, down on the farm, he has been as effective as anyone could have hoped.

And so, I wonder, what will happen to Melancon this season? I definitely expect to see him, at some point, and believe he would be a tremendous asset to the team’s relief corps. Yet, with an already crowded bullpen, it seems the soon-to-be 25-year old will be slated for Scranton for most of the year, although someone could certainly falter or experience an injury that would alter such an outcome. CHONE projects Melancon to post a 4.42 FIP this season and Marcel sees a 4.23 FIP, but, given his legitimate success in the minors, his stuff, and his makeup, I’m inclined to believe FanGraphs’ fan projection, which forecasts the Colorado native as a 3.33 FIP pitcher with stellar peripherals. So far this spring, Melancon has appeared in 2 games, giving up 2 hits and striking out 3 over 2 2/3 innings pitched.

It’s a shame we won’t see Melancon more this season, but, I guess that is a testament to the team’s bullpen depth.

Photo by the AP

According to George King of the NY Post, while it’s clear that right-handers, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, “are the favorites,” or at least the two early finalists, vying for the fifth rotation spot this spring, “there are voices within the organization who want Chamberlain and Hughes in the pen.” GM Brian Cashman discussed this very issue last week with the lovable Mike Francesa, pointing out that such a pitching configuration, one which would feature Alfredo Aceves, Chad Gaudin, or Sergio Mitre as the fifth starter – an option that many more are pondering today after a small sample of recent innings from both Mitre and Aceves – would certainly be to the Yankees’ short-term benefit.

However, Cashman noted that, long-term, such a situation is neither efficient or pragmatic. As stated by Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave Blues, the Yankees need to cultivate at least one of their two young arms and inserting both into the team’s bullpen just does not work towards that goal. “The Yankees need to replace two starting pitchers next year,” Joe writes. “They’d be better serves in 2011, then, by having at least one of Hughes and Chamberlain starting in 2010” (to build innings, etc.). Yankees skipper, Joe Girardi, also made a similar point several weeks ago.

Putting both Hughes and Chamberlain would help the bullpen this season, but it would come at the expense of future starting rotations. In the end, potential long-term benefits, especially with regards to young pitchers, should trump the short-term stuff, right (I say that, but it does not always occur—see Joba Chamberlain’s emergence in 2007)?

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Last week, Steve throughly and cogently argued the case for Alfredo Aceves winning the competition for the Yankees’ lone available rotation slot. Today, I present 5 reasons why I believe that Joba Chamberlain is the only logical choice for that role.

1) Joba has the highest upside: Quite simply, Joba Chamberlain has the highest ceiling of the five options. While Aceves or even Gaudin might provide more predictable performance, only Joba (and to a lesser extent, Hughes) has the capability to turn into something much greater than a 5th starter type. For a team with 4 starters that have thrown at least 200 innings more than a few times over recent years, it makes sense to go with upside over stability in that 5th starter role.
2) There is more to lose if Joba is not in the rotation: Starting Aceves rather than Joba carries a much greater risk than allowing Joba to start. If Joba is put into the rotation and fails, he can simply be replaced with one of the other options, with no real long-term repercussions to follow. There is no real negative consequence to moving Aceves back and forth between roles. Conversely, if Joba starts the season in the bullpen, he is unlikely to pitch enough innings to allow him to properly continue his development, even if he was returned to the rotation mid-season. He would likely finish with a maximum of 100-110 innings, and would almost certainly be on an innings limit in 2011, which leads me to my next point.
3) The Yankees will likely be searching for starters next offseason: The only Yankee starters that are locked in to the 2011 rotation are CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. Depending on the performance and contract demands of Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez, the Yankees will be looking for anywhere from 1-3 starters next offseason. Having Joba Chamberlain established as a starter would go a long way towards allowing the Yankees to efficiently fill those empty slots. If the Yankees could have Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes providing quality innings at a low cost, it would allow them to invest in a player such as Cliff Lee. A rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Vazquez or Lee, Chamberlain, and Hughes (on an innings limit) would be expensive but dominant at the top and cost efficient and effective at the bottom.
4) He may be the best of the five right now: While Joba was inconsistent and occasionally awful last season, his overall body of work as a starter suggests that even if you ignore upside, he may be the best option of the five right now. Matt looked at the projections for Chamberlain, and found that the average projection has him notching a 4.10 ERA, 1.4332 WHIP, and 3.95 FIP in 2010. I have a hard time believing that any of the others would beat that line. Of course, some might argue that putting Joba in the bullpen will also improve that area of the team, but I think that it really would not make for an appreciable difference. Having Joba and Hughes in the bullpen at the expense of the rotation seems to be a bit of overkill. A bullpen with Rivera, Hughes, Marte, Park, Robertson, and Aceves should be excellent, and throwing Joba in there at the expense of his development is uneccessary.
5) What Were The Joba Rules For?: The Yankees have carefully managed Chamberlain’s workload for three seasons to reach the moment where he can freely pitch as many innings as the club needs from him. Now that they have reached that moment, it seems silly to stick him back in the bullpen or send the minors. I am not suggesting that the Yankees stick with their plan for Joba blindly. Rather, I believe that the fact that 1) Joba still has the greatest upside and 2) might actually be the best pitcher for the job in 2010, makes sticking with the development plan the most logical and prudent choice. It is time to see whether Joba Chamberlain can be a long-term answer in the Yankees rotation.

Do you agree?

The headline is an obvious statement, but I had yet to see an actual number put on the gap between starting and relieving until now. Tom Tango said the following:

The replacement level pitcher as a starter has a .380 win%. Move that starter to relief, and his win% goes up by about .09, or .470 win%. That’s it.

The average starter has a win% of .490 and the average reliever has a win% of .520 (more or less, and by win% I mean based on his pythag component ERA). As you can see, the average reliever is not that much better than the replacement-level pitcher as reliever. That’s why we say relievers are a dime a dozen. So, the average starter is +.11 wins per 9 IP and he uses up two-third of the innings. The average reliever is +.05 wins per 9 IP and he uses up one-third of the innings. If you follow along, the average starter gives you twice the value, per inning, as the reliever, and he gives you twice the innings. That sets the value of the average reliever of 25% of the average starter (1/2 times 1/2). This number goes up a little when you add in the leverage impact of relievers.

When people bring up Joba Chamberlain and suggest he belongs in the bullpen, I frequently explain that starters are significantly more valuable than relievers, such that it makes sense to give him every chance to succeed out of the rotation. Even if Joba is a top reliever and simply an average starter, his value is almost certainly going to be greater taking the ball every five days. Unless he tanks entirely in that role, the “bull in a china shop mentality” and all of that psycho-babble garbage that gets spewed to support moving him to the pen should be viewed as largely irrelevant. The job of the team is to extract as much value as possible from Joba, and having him in the rotation is the best way to do so.

Mike Silva spoke to Chad Jennings last night, and Jennings suggested that the Chan-Ho Park addition could result in Alfredo Aceves beginning the year in the minors. Here’s how:

Rivera, Robertson, Marte, Joba/Hughes, and Park. I would put Aceves as a lock, but what if Melancon or Albaladejo have a great spring? Don’t forget Chad Gaudin who the Yankees brass likes. The Yankees rotation is going to give length on most nights and Park is someone that could go 2 innings plus, if necessary. Last year he was called on for two or more innings eleven times by Charlie Manuel.
Another thing going against Aceves is the fact that he has options. Gaudin will need to clear waivers if he is demoted. Knowing the state of pitching in the game it’s hard to imagine another team not claiming him if he has a good spring. Aceves might very well become a victim of the numbers game.

Basically, the idea is that Park might make carrying Aceves and Gaudin redundant, such that the club would be inclined to take a one inning type reliever such as Melancon rather than both Aceves and Gaudin. Being that Aceves has options and the others do not, he would be the odd man out.

The one thing that bothers me about this idea is that I’m not so sure Melancon or Albaladejo are better one inning relievers than Aceves at this point. If Aceves only provided flexibility over the one inning type options, I would understand giving that up for better performance due to the flexibility of the other Yankee relievers. But if the Yankees believe that Aceves is the better pitcher, he should not be sent down simply because his greatest attribute is something that the Yankees have plenty of. Hopefully, the Yankees take their seven best bullpen arms north.

What do you think? Is there a scenario under which you would send Aceves to AAA?

According to Joel Sherman of the NY Post, in a last-ditch effort to extract some level of value from Japanese southpaw, Kei Igawa, who ultimately cost the team over $46 million (posting fee and a four-year contract) and forced the front office to reevaluate its scouting program, the Yankees have decided to use Igawa strictly as a reliever this spring. Sherman also adds that the 30-year old will continue to work out of the bullpen while with Scranton, as well.

If there is no value to be had from Igawa as a starter, then it makes sense to try him as a reliever and, frankly, I am surprised that the Yankees have not tried this earlier, as it is an idea I have pondered since 2007. Igawa’s minor-league numbers against lefties are strong – 3.25 FIP, 7.09 K/9, 1.49 BB/9 – and would likely improve as a reliever. If the Yankees are not comfortable with Boone Logan, then maybe Igawa could get a shot later this season as the second lefty out of the bullpen. At this point, the biggest issue is whether or not he deserves a spot on the roster.

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From Chad Jennings (courtesy of RAB Twitter):

For now, Phil Hughes is only throwing fastballs and changeups in his bullpen sessions, and he expects to throw one more bullpen before he mixes in curveballs and cutters. He compared the development of his changeup to last year’s development of the cutter. “I’ll concentrate on it all spring,” he said. “Hopefully I’ll get it to a point where it’s a solid pitch for me. It just comes with repetition.”

Although Hughes does not need a changeup to be successful as a reliever or a decent starter, he may need one to be an upper echelon type starter. The cutter is simply a fastball variant, and I am not sure he can get by throwing a fastball or similar pitch 70-75% of the time. Mixing in a solid changeup, even if he only throws it once an inning, will help keep hitters off balance and will force them to refrain from sitting on the fastball and curve. However, improving a pitch is not an easy endeavor, and there are no guarantees that Hughes’ hard work will pay off. Hopefully, he can experience at least some success with the pitch, and broaden his repertoire in preparation for his eventual move to the rotation.

In a FanHouse piece in which Frankie Piliere outlines a handful of former prospects with something to prove in 2010, Piliere cites the Yankees’ young starter/reliever, Phil Hughes. “Bullpen or no bullpen, we saw the real Hughes start to shine through in 2009,” writes the former Texas scout. Piliere attributes Hughes’ newfound success to him seeming “more aggressive and comfortable in every way” last season, as these traits allowed the 23-year old to look like a “different pitcher” on the mound when compared to the discernibly diffident version we saw in 2008. Much of this aggressiveness, notes Piliere, was derived from Hughes’ confidence in one pitch, in particular—his fastball.

In 2009, working primarily as Mariano Rivera’s setup man, Hughes’ fastball averaged 93.7 mph. In 2008, as a starter, Hughes’ velocity averaged nearly 3 mph less at 91.2 mph. The noticeable uptick in velocity can help to explain the changes in Hughes’ demeanor from 2008 to 2009 as he was simply working with more gas last year, in a relief role (he could let it “fly”), as opposed to two years ago. As stated by Piliere, Hughes had “more confidence in his fastball command,” and, obviously, it is a lot easier to believe in your fastball when you throw it harder since added velocity means not having to worry as much about your overall location or control. The numbers bare this out with regards to swing percentage. In 2008, while in the rotation, hitters only swung at 16.5% of the pitches Hughes threw outside of the zone – he throws his fastball the most, so many of those off-the-plate offerings were fastballs – whereas, in 2009, hitters swung at 25.7% of the pitches Hughes threw that were outside the strike zone. Also, hitters swung at more pitches in the zone a season ago – 69.0% compared to 64.4% in 2008 – while making less contact (82.5% in 2009 as a reliever versus 91.5% in 2008 as a starter). Thus, pitching out of the ‘pen coaxed an extra 3 mph (roughly) out of Hughes’ California-bred arm, which basically led to his now vaunted confidence and celebrated aggressiveness.

This big question, of course, is whether or not this confidence, which was so essential to the Yankees in 2009, will remain with Hughes if he is reinserted into the rotation, where he will lose the added velocity he gained last season.

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If there is one phrase that sums up the argument as to why Phil Hughes should start 2010 at Triple A Scranton, it is “in case.” In case a pitcher gets hurt. In case Joba Chamberlain ends up being ineffective.

The prevailing wisdom is that neither Hughes nor Chamberlain should start the season in Scranton because they’ve got nothing left to prove in the minors and that their opponents would give them no sort of challenge. With this I agree. However, if Hughes (let’s assume Chamberlain’s got the starting job locked up) starts the season in the International League, it will not be about competition. It will be about building innings that he lost in 2008 due to injury and in 2009 due to pitching out of the bullpen. In the proverbial long run, having Hughes in Scranton for at least the beginning of the season in 2010 is the better option than having him begin the year in the bullpen as the set-up man. Would that option be better for the 2010 Yankees? Sure, you can make that argument. However, the step up from Robertson/Marte to Hughes is not very large and it’s not worth setting Hughes back another year.

2009 was very kind to the Yankee rotation in terms of injury. Maybe it’s just paranoia, but I think the chances of that happening again are pretty slim. In case CC’s big innings totals catch up to him…in case A.J. Burnett gets hurt…in case Andy Pettitte’s age catches up to him. In case any of those things happen, I’d much rather have Phil Hughes starting than any of the other alternatives. Shall I list the reasons why? Well I don’t see why not!.

Behind door number one, we have Sergio Mitre. Before going any further, I have a disclaimer: I do not like Sergio Mitre. At all. Anyway, there’s some hope for him, as he’s now farther removed from his Tommy John Surgery. However, sustained success has not come for Mitre in his 362.1 career innings. No, that’s not a big total, but it’s not as if he’s still a prospect at this point (he’ll turn 29 on the 16th of this month) and last year didn’t give me much confidence in him. Mitre starting more than once or twice through the rotation is not a good option for the Yankees.

Door number two gives us Alfredo Aceves. “Ace” was invaluable out of the bullpen in 2009 and that’s where he should stay. While his stuff is far from weak, it’s not the kind of stuff that can survive getting through an order more than once. His current role of swingman is likely where he’ll have the most success.

The final door gives us Chad Gaudin. Gaudin had a nice little season in 2009. He did a great job of keeping the ball in the park and striking out hitters (4.16 FIP) but the walks were a bit high (4.64 per nine), as was his WHIP (1.51, all combined SD/NY numbers). Aside from Hughes, I’d feel most comfortable giving him multiple starts, but if someone goes down, I still want Hughes to be ready to step in and start.

If Hughes is in the bullpen, he can’t do that. They could stretch him out from the bullpen over a period of time, but by the time he is ready to pitch enough innings to start, the injured pitcher could return. It’d be better to stretch Hughes out in Scranton so that if an injury does occur, he’s ready to take that pitcher’s spot immediately.

If an injury happens, the man who fills in for that pitcher will be more important to the Yankees than any one pitcher in the bullpen, simply because he’ll be getting many more innings. The best option for that role is one Phil Hughes, who should start the year pitching for the SWB Yankees.

Confidence is, of course, central to becoming anything of relevance in the big-leagues, including (and especially) a successful starting pitcher. With a five-man Spring Training competition scheduled to determine the Yankees’ final rotation spot, no one seems more confident about his chances than the young Nebraskan, Joba Chamberlain. Last night, at the Thurman Munson Dinner in midtown Manhattan, when asked about the looming spring showdown between he, Phil Hughes, Chad Gaudin, Alfredo Aceves, and Sergio Mitre, the always upbeat Joba said, “I’m going in with the mind-set that it’s mine.” Joba’s unmistakably assured tone indicates that the 24-year old views the fifth spot as his property, a property he must protect in the coming spring, particularly from the likes of his friend, Phil Hughes.

In his latest piece, Joel Sherman of the NY Post writes that “the No. 5 starter competition between Chamberlain and Phil Hughes is almost over two weeks before pitchers and catcher even report,” with Hughes – not Joba, who posted a 4.82 FIP over 157 1/3 innings while in the rotation just a season ago – as the perceived victor. According to Sherman, the “Yankees never would admit it publicly, but if the season were to begin today, Hughes would be in the rotation and Joba would be Mariano Rivera’s primary set-up man — and, perhaps, heir apparent.” Sherman believes this to be the case because of Joba’s temperamental disposition, last season, as a starter – he often seemed tentative and uncertain – versus his disposition as a reliever in the postseason, when he appeared much more confident and aggressive. As stated by a Yankees official who recently spoke to Sherman, the differences in character between the two roles “was hard to miss.” For this reason, Sherman concludes that Hughes will inevitably triumph over his counterpart, Joba.

However, in my honest opinion, such a thought – this idea of conferring a valuable rotation spot to a pitcher based on temperamental perceptions – seems particularly nonsensical. For one, Joba Chamberlain’s seemingly tentative and meek personality as a starter can easily be explained by the common growing pains experienced by most young starters and which Joba was obviously no exception to in 2009 (despite Sherman suggesting otherwise). This – the rotational hardships he faced – in turn, influenced his outward character (it is difficult to be confident and aggressive when you struggle performance-wise). In addition, one must also consider that, as a reliever, Joba, for the most part, only utilizes two of his pitches—a fastball and a slider. Completely scrapping a few offerings and simplifying one’s game-plan is generally the norm for any starting pitcher turned reliever, as the fastball increases in its velocity and can be relied upon more often. Thus, it is considerably easier for Joba to “look” confident as a reliever because he is only throwing two of his pitches. As a starter, however, the entirety of his above average repertoire comes into play, and Joba must pick and choose specific pitches from a situational perspective. Hence the frustrating shake-offs and perceived timidness. This, then, is not, as Sherman would like us to believe, a matter of temperament, rather, it is a matter of experience – or, in this case, a lack thereof – and learning how to perform as a starter on a full-time basis.

Therefore, in the end, I refuse to believe that the Yankees would fall victim to the so-called logic outlined in Sherman’s piece and dictate season roles based on subjective evaluations of player temperament. Instead, they will consider a number of quantifiable and tangible elements (e.g., statistics, innings limit, velocity, mechanics, etc.) when reaching a decision, for this is how roles are ultimately distinguished. There is no particular personality that is specific to the role of starter, just as there is no preset character specific to the role of first baseman, utility infielder, setup man, closer, and so on and so forth. If this was the case and Joba Chamberlain’s strut-brandishing, fist-pumping, fiery demeanor means that he is better suited for work out of the bullpen, how, exactly, would you explain the existence of this guy:

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