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The Rafael Soriano Question

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 3 Responses »
Jan 062011

I saw two interesting articles this morning on the Yankees possibly targeting star reliever Rafael Soriano, and I wanted to comment briefly on the issue. The first comes from Mike Silva, who addresses concerns about the fact that Soriano will cost the Yankees a first round draft pick:

Back in March of ’10, Moshe Mandel of the Yankee U recapped a John Sickels conversation with Yankees VP of Baseball Operations Mark Newman. In that column, Newman pointed out how they have relied on the international market, as well as risking lower draft picks on players that are signability issues, because the lower first round picks don’t have the highest ceilings. Knowing that, I don’t think the lack of a first round pick eliminates the Yankees from having a productive draft in 2011.

This is not the Yankees of the turn of the century, who had a shallow farm system and needed to plug a majority of their holes via free agency. They are rich with arms, catchers, and have seen some positional player’s progress over the last couple of years. I do not think they should sacrifice the big league club because of the possibility there is a gem in the 2011 amateur draft.

Silva goes on to suggest that the Yankees target Soriano on a one year deal, as the market on him has seemingly dried up. Joe Pawlikowski over RAB responded to Silva’s post:

The point, made concretely, is that even previously good relievers can collapse at any time. Soriano could certainly help the Yankees if he progresses in the same way as Francisco Cordero, but at that point is he worth the salary and the draft pick? This is where I’d say I lean towards the leave him alone camp. The signing would be risky enough without losing the draft pick. Adding in that factor has me opposing a Soriano acquisition.
Silva’s counterpoint: why not a one-year deal? That would certainly reduce risk. But if Soriano gets hurt, or has terrible luck, as we’ve seen with a number of relievers previously, the loss of the draft pick hurts that much. I’m not saying that’s probable, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility. I’d actually feel a bit better about losing the draft pick over a multiyear deal than a one-year deal, since the Yanks can still get some value out of Soriano in later years of the contract if he flops in the first.

I disagree with Joe’s last point, as I think a one year deal mitigates both the risk of injury and the draft pick issue. A one year commitment means that an injury will not hurt you past 2011, such that the worst case scenario is that the Yankees lose his salary and need to add another reliever during the season. As for the draft pick, it seems fairly likely that Soriano will be worth draft picks next off season as well. Unless he totally falls apart, the Yankees are likely to offer him arbitration. If he remains a Type A free agent, the Yankees would actually earn an additional pick, as they will only sacrifice one this year while gaining two upon his departure. Even if he declines to a Type B, he will be worth a supplemental pick, costing the Yankees about 10-15 spots in draft position plus one year of developing a prospect. While that is not an insignificant cost, it is not high enough to prevent the club from signing a player of Soriano’s ilk. Conversely, a multi-year deal increases the risks associated with a major injury, and pushes the retrieval of draft picks further into the future.

Ultimately, the Yankees interest should depend on the market. If Soriano has teams that are willing to give him a multi-year contract, the Yankees should heed Joe’s warning about long-term deals for relievers and back away. However, if the market does in fact make a one-year contract feasible, it would behoove the Yankees to consider making an offer for Soriano’s services.

Ultimately

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Bullpen Notes: Boston Adds Jenks, Yankees Eye Soriano

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 4:04 pm 23 Responses »
Dec 162010

The Red Sox made an excellent move today, signing Bobby Jenks to a 2 year, 12 million dollar deal. While some have suggested this means Jonathan Papelbon is on the trading block, I do not see how they would get nearly enough value for him in a trade for it to make sense. He is expensive and coming off a bad season, so any suitors will be loathe to take on his money and give up decent prospects. It is possible that Boston just lets him go to dump his salary, but I would not count on it.

I really was hoping that the Yankees would nab Jenks to deepen their bullpen. This is what I said last month:

Jenks is a good buy low candidate after what is perceived to be a poor season. With Matt Thornton returning to Chicago, I could see the White Sox and Jenks parting ways. Jenks has conditioning issues and clashed with Ozzie Guillen at times, but he is clearly an immense talent. Jenks had a 4.44 ERA in 2010, but was victimized by an astronomical .368 BABIP and a LOB% of 65.4. His FIP was 2.59 (xFIP of 2.62) and he struck out 10.42 batters per nine while walking 3.08. Scraping past the surface of blown saves and ERA shows that Jenks actually had an excellent year. He would be an excellent fit to replace Kerry Wood as the 8th inning guy, and his cost is the only issue that would scare me away.

2 years and 12 million dollars is quite a reasonable price for his services, so I think Brian Cashman was asleep at the wheel here. However, Mark Feinsand is reporting that the Yankees are looking into a superior pitcher:

According to a source with knowledge of the Yankees’ thinking, the Bombers are “exploring” the option of signing Soriano, the All-Star closer who pitched last year for the Rays.

With plenty of money to spare in the wake of Cliff Lee’s return to Philadelphia, the Yankees have held preliminary discussions with Scott Boras about Soriano, the source said.

The Yankees’ inability to land Lee has shifted their emphasis on bolstering the bullpen, using their unexpected slush fund toward doing so.

The Yankees had hoped to bring back Kerry Wood to serve in the primary setup role for Rivera, but the 33-year-old is said to be seeking a two-year deal worth $12 million, more than the Yankees are prepared to pay the oft-injured righthander.

In the case of Soriano – who 45-for-48 in save opportunities while posting a 1.73 ERA for Tampa Bay – Cashman is said to be willing to make an exception, paying him “closer money” to back up Rivera with the thought of the 31-year-old bring groomed to eventually succeed the iconic Hall of Fame-bound closer.

Soriano is better than Jenks, but he is also likely to be considerably more expensive and would cost the Yankees their first round pick. Being that the bullpen is more in need of solid depth than major star power, I do not think it would be prudent to sign Soriano to a large deal at “closer money.” Cashman should look into someone like Grant Balfour instead, who can give the club solid performance at a significantly cheaper price. (Edit: Oops, it seems Balfour is also a Type A free agent. Pass on that as well.)

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Looking At Mo and Joba

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 11 Responses »
Nov 302010

Two interesting articles regarding the two most important Yankee relievers were published today. The first (from RLYW) is about Mariano Rivera, and bodes well for 2011:

It’s a good bet he will need to be used less and less frequency because a 40-41 year old body just doesn’t recover like one that’s 30. That’s a legitimate point in discussing Rivera’s value, because value is not just about rate of performance. You’re not very valuable if you aren’t pitching.

Just because he’s now turned 40, there’s very little reason in his statistical record to think that he’s about to fall off a cliff. He certainly could, and he’s got the same risk any pitcher does of hurting his arm and becoming worthless….

Rivera’s CAIRO projection is still top tier for all relief pitchers, and it does include both aging and some component regression to the mean for his FIP and xFIP. For CAIRO, his projection for runs allowed is based on 35% RA, 30% ERA, 15% FIP, 10% xFIP, and 15% component ERA. So 40% of his projection includes data that is most likely to regress, and he STILL projects about as well as anyone.

He will eventually reach the point where he’s not an asset. But all the evidence we have says that’s not going to happen in 2011.

I think observation confirms the statistics in this case, as Mo looked as effective this season as he has been since he entered the league. He continues to exhibit excellent command and control, and rarely allows hard contact. The post makes some interesting comparisons and discusses Mariano’s ability to induce weak contact, and I recommend that you go to RLYW and read the full post.

The second article comes from Beyond the Boxscore, and confirms a troubling observation that some have made regarding Joba Chamberlain. Over the last two seasons, many have noticed that Joba’s slider seems to be flatter, tumbling rather than diving out of the strike zone. Considering that he has largely ditched his curveball and changeup, diminished effectiveness from the slider is a major problem for Chamberlain. Lucas Apostoleris used Pitch f/x to examine whether this observation is accurate, and his results are a bit unsettling:

The slider has both lost break and gained velocity, and the change has been particularly noticeable since September 2009. There was a higher percentage of hanging sliders in 2009 and 2010 than there was in 2008. The difference may appear slight, but as the saying goes, baseball is a game of inches. All in all, while the slider may not be filthy as it was in the old days, it’s still pretty great.

Joba’s slider is resulting in fewer swinging strikes, likely because it has gotten worse in many different ways. The pitch is being located higher in the zone, it has less vertical “drop” to it, and it has increased in speed (meaning there is less of a gap between the slider and fastball). While it remains a very good pitch, Joba likely needs it to be dominant now that he only has 2 pitches and the fastball has diminished in velocity. If he is truly to be the heir to Mariano, he needs to figure out how to harness his slider.

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Yanks add 2 to the bullpen mix

Posted by Eric Schultz at 5:59 pm 2 Responses »
Nov 272010

With the Derek Jeter contract soap opera looming large in the background, occupying media and fan attention, nothing major has happened during the Yankee offseason.  Despite the lack of progress (as far as we know) with the Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, or Lee contracts, Brian Cashman has moved ahead to explore some bullpen alternatives.  Ken Rosenthal reported via twitter that the Yankees have signed LHP Andy Sisco and RHP Brian Anderson to minor league deals.  If neither of these names ring a bell, that would not be too surprising.

Sisco is a 6’10″, hard-throwing lefty who came up with the Royals in 2005, and last pitched in the majors in 2007 with the White Sox.  Sisco had Tommy John surgery in April 2008, and bounced around the Athletics’ and Giants’ minor league systems before getting released.  Sisco had a strong debut season in ’05, posting a 3.11 ERA in 75 1/3 innings, striking out 76 and walking 42.  Control continued to be a problem in 2006 and 2007, but his home run and hit rates spiked, and his strikeout rate dropped (to a still respectable 8 per 9 innings).  In his major league career, Sisco featured a fastball that averaged around 92-93 (thrown about 75-80% of the time), and used a slider and changeup infrequently as secondary offerings.  Sisco is currently pitching in Mexico with the Mexicali Aguilas, where he has reportedly been hitting 95 with the fastball.  There is a reason why Sisco has not stuck with an organization despite his left-handedness, height, and velocity: he has been too hittable, and has had control problems.  However, if his decreased performance could be attributed to injury (and he is healthy now), the Yanks could have their second lefty for the bullpen.

Brian Anderson is another interesting redemption project, with an intriguing back-story.  Anderson was supposed to be the centerfielder of the future for the White Sox, a 1st-round pick (15th overall) out of Arizona in 2003.  Despite a solid minor league career, Anderson was unable to translate his offensive success to the bigs.  His mediocre offensive production (never exceeding a .328 OBP) eventually caused the White Sox to give up on him, and he was picked up by the Red Sox and then the Royals.  The Royals decided that Anderson didn’t have a future in the majors as a pitcher, but were intrigued enough by his raw arm strength to try him on the mound.  Despite last pitching in college (11 innings with an 8.18 ERA in 2002), Anderson was pretty successful in his first minor league stint, posting a 3.18 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 68 innings across 4 levels of the minors, with 52 strikeouts and 25 walks.  Certainly not overwhelming success, but solid for a guy who hadn’t pitched in years.  Reports of Anderson hitting 97 and sitting 95 and flashing a decent slider bode well for Anderson’s potential, though control will likely be a problem for him due to lack of experience.

Chances are that neither of these guys stick with the big league team, but both have been through enough trials and tribulations that they are worth following (along with their ability to hit mid-90′s on the gun).  Anderson in particular would be the type of redemption story that saps like me can’t help but root for.  Anderson and Sisco will both be interesting to watch during Spring Training as they compete for spots in the back end of the Yankee bullpen.  If they struggle, they will likely wind up in the minors or released.  If they succeed, however, they could wind up as important contributors to the Yankee bullpen.

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Good Wood: the battle of Kerry and Chad is over

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:02 pm 3 Responses »
Oct 082010

wood

OK Orlando, here comes a fastball.  Ready?  Strike three. Photo courtesy of daylife.com

Back in July the Yankees and the Rays both acquired bullpen arms to prepare for the stretch run.  At the time, I was torn between which team got the better reliever.  In my piece Wood vs. Qualls, I discussed the differences between the two pickups: Wood had higher upside but health concerns, while Qualls was a groundball machine who had seemingly run into horrific luck on balls in play but possessed less strikeout ability.  At the time I concluded that I preferred the Yankees’ haul:

The Yankees now have a potentially-dominant reliever able to take the reins on the 8th inning and combine with Robertson and Marte [note: whoops!] in the playoffs to give Girardi a potent arsenal.  The Rays have a stabilizer, the type of pitcher that can generate ground balls and limit the free passes, a guy that they hope can fill the role that Balfour played before going on the DL after hurting himself rough-housing in the clubhouse.

All things considered, I would probably prefer Wood to Qualls.  The Yankees only realistically need 30-40 solid innings out of their reliever, and while I tend to expect Qualls to rebound by the end of the year I am enticed by Wood’s potential dominance.  Hopefully the Yankees can catch lightning in a bottle. Regardless, both clubs did well to take on relievers with good track records and decent upside for minimal cost.  The moves were savvy, the types with potential to pay big dividends in October.

In August and September, Chad Qualls saw action in 27 games, pitching 21 innings.  He struck out 15 and walked 6, and allowed 15 runs, 13 of them earned.  This amounts to an ERA of 5.57 and a FIP of 3.89.  Qualls saw an improvement in his BABIP, as it dropped over a hundred points from his .434 mark in Arizona to .332 with Tampa.  Meanwhile in New York, Kerry Wood gradually grew into the role of eighth inning setup man.  In the regular season he pitched 26 innings, striking out 31 and walking 18.  He allowed only 2 earned runs, and held batters to a .161/.311/.195 line against.  His ERA was a microscopic 0.69 and his FIP was 3.39.  The closeness in their respective FIPs aside, the regular season was a clear win for Wood.

In the postseason both Wood and Qualls have seen action in both games.  On Wednesday, Qualls relieved David Price and pitched a scoreless inning and a third.  The game was already pretty much out of reach by then.  The Rangers  were winning 5-0 and Lee was large and in charge.  Yesterday, Qualls relieved James “Big Mouth” Shields with runners on first and second and one out and Michael Young at the plate.  After running the count to 2-2, Young tried to check his swing on a slider down in the zone.  The umpire said he held up but the Rays players were apoplectic, several of them screaming at the umpire from the dugout.  On the next pitch, Young golfed a 94 mph sinker over the center field wall to give the Rangers a 5-0 lead, and they never looked back.  Checked swing aside, this was a big moment for Qualls and he couldn’t get the job done.

Kerry Wood has also pitched in both playoff games, each time as the eighth inning option.  In Game 1 he entered the eighth with a two run lead to face Michael Cuddyer, and promptly struck him out.  He followed that up by walking Jason Kubel, and then allowed a single to Danny Valencia, meaning that the Twins had runners on first and second with one out.  Girardi left him in to face Hardy, and Wood got him to ground out to Cano.  The runners advanced to second and third, and Girardi brought in Rivera to face the lefty Span with two outs.  All in all, it was a decent enough outing, but not his best.  Apparently he was saving his best for last night.

As the Twins and Yankees headed to the bottom of the eighth, the Yankees led 5-2 and brought in Wood to face the J.J. Hardy.  Wood simply embarrassed him.  After missing with a first pitch fastball, a 95 mph heater down in the zone, Wood threw Hardy two straight sliders.  The first one was taken for a strike, and Hardy swung and missed on the second one.  These were excellent sliders with great horizontal action.   They broke away from the right-hander Hardy like a cutter, darting away from him at the last second.  Now with the count 1-2, Wood didn’t return to the slider or the fastball.  Instead, he dropped a 78 mph curveball on the inside part of the plate for strike three.  You can see the knee-buckling curveball in this video clip on MLB.com.  It was hardly fair.  In terms of the sequence and the quality of pitches it was one of the best at-bats I’ve seen from a Yankee reliever this season.

After Hardy, Wood took on Denard Span.  Wood went to the fastball first and got a called strike on a 95 mph heater on the outside corner.  He then threw Span a slider that cut in his hands, and Span could only foul it off.  In a way, it was a lot like the way Rivera’s cutter treats lefties.  He followed that slider with another one, this one over the middle of the plate, and Span flied out to center. In the last at-bat against Hudson, Wood went exclusively with the fastball, daring Hudson to hit it.  He threw him three straight heaters around 95 mph, and Hudson struck out on three pitches.  Inning over.  Enter Sandman.  Exit light, enter night.

If you had asked me to describe my absolute best-case scenario when the Yankees acquired Wood two months ago, I would have said something like this: “Gradually earn the manager’s trust in low-leverage positions as he gets fully healthy, then emerge as a late-inning shutdown option as the season moves into September”.  Yet, as optimistic as I was, I didn’t actually expect it to happen.  Kerry Wood still walks way too many batters, and there’s always the looming specter of a blowup or a shoulder blowout.  But here we are in October, and there was Kerry Wood standing on the mound in the eighth inning putting the proverbial ether rag over the Twins’ faces last night.  Realistically, the Yankees only need 5 to 8 more innings out of Kerry Wood this year.  If he can pitch the way he did last night, the games will effectively be over in the seventh inning.  The Wood vs. Qualls battle is practically over.  This one was a clear win for the Yankees.

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The State of the Yankee Pitching Staff

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:36 pm 5 Responses »
Sep 272010

Over the last few weeks, many pundits have chimed in to bemoan the state of the Yankees pitching. With the team mired in a long rough patch in which they have played mediocre baseball for over a month now, some have suggested that the team does not have the arms needed to succeed in October. I decided to take a closer look at the pitching numbers since July 29th, when this poor stretch began (28-26 since), simply because I had a sneaking suspicion that the pitching is not close to as poor as the media and some fans would have you believe.

I split the team into two categories. The first contains the 9 “core” playoff pitchers, those arms that are likely to eat all of the high leverage innings in the postseason. The second contains the fringe playoff roster arms and other assorted relievers. The idea was to see how the Yankee pitching over the last 7 weeks or so would look if we removed the pitchers who were seeing time primarily due to the Yankees cushion in the standings or due to injury. I used the simplest of stats, looking just at innings pitched and earned runs, as those are ultimately the numbers that tend to shape popular opinion about a pitching staff.

Core Playoff Pitchers
Hughes 58 IP, 26 ER = ERA 4.03
Logan 14.2 IP, 3 ER = ERA 1.84
D-Rob 21.2 IP, 6 ER = ERA 2.49
Rivera 19.2 IP, 8 ER = ERA 3.66
Sabathia 78 IP, 30 ER = ERA 3.46
K. Wood 24 IP, 1 ER = ERA .37
Burnett 57 IP, 39 ER = ERA 6.16
Joba 24.2 IP, 6 ER = ERA 2.19
Pettitte 9.1 IP, 7 ER = ERA 6.75

Total: 307 IP, 126 ER = ERA 3.69
Total without Burnett: 250 IP, 87 ER = ERA 3.13

Fringe Pitchers/Scrubs
Vazquez 41 IP, 27 ER = ERA 5.93
Gaudin 22.1 IP, 10 ER = ERA 4.03
Mitre 17.1 IP, 6 ER = ERA 3.12
Moseley 41.1 IP, 19 ER = ERA 4.14
Nova 36.2 IP, 20 ER = ERA 4.91
Albie 6.2 IP, 4 ER = ERA 5.40
Ring 1.2 IP, 1 ER = ERA 5.42
Sanchez .2 IP, 0 ER = ERA 0.00

Total: 167.2 IP, 87 ER = ERA 4.67

The results are far from shocking, and paint a far different picture than the one you might hear in the mainstream media. Unless one bad start from Andy Pettitte has you in a panic, every key pitcher other than Burnett has been solid at worst over this “bad” stretch. The bullpen leading up to Mariano Rivera has been fantastic, while Phil Hughes and CC Sabathia have given the Yankees good starting pitching. With Burnett’s awful numbers being skewed mostly to August, even AJ has given Yankees fans hope that he will perform decently in October.

Do not let poor performances from non-essential pitchers fool you. Unless you choose to get overly concerned about brief struggles from old hands like Rivera and Pettitte, the state of the Yankee pitching staff is actually quite good heading into October. The team has 3 trustworthy starters, one improving wild card, and 5 very good relievers. Coupled with a strong offense, that should be more than enough to carry the Yankees to another World Series title.

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Royce Ring and Playoff Matchups

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 4 Responses »
Sep 172010

There are three things that are certain in life: death, taxes, and the need for left-handed pitching help.  Being a lefty is recession-proof; if you’re a lefty reliever your lifespan in baseball can get extended well beyond what a similarly talented right-handed reliever would expect.  Seriously, if my future son takes a liking to baseball I’m going to teach him to throw left-handed.

Enter Royce Ring.  In addition to having a comical-sounding name, Ring is a lefty reliever. Ring was actually the first round draft pick of the White Sox in 2002, but was dealt a year later to the Mets along with Edwin Almonte and Andrew Salvo in exchange for Roberto Alomar.  Ring didn’t do well in New York, and was left exposed to the Rule V draft after the 2004 season.  There were no takers, and rumors of a bad attitude (much like Jesus Montero, amirite?) and lack of physical conditioning severely dimmed this prospect’s outlook.  Over the next few years, Ring bounced back and forth between AAA and the bigs, never able to establish himself as a solid option out of the bullpen.  After the 2006 season, the Royce Ring-New York Mets experiment ended when Ring was dealt to the Padres along with Heath Bell in exchange for Ben Johnson and Jon Adkins.

No, seriously, the Mets gave away Heath Bell.

After another trade to Atlanta, Ring became a minor league free agent and signed with the Cardinals before the 2009 season.  He cleared waivers, and spent the season pitching for the Memphis Redbirds, the Cardinals’ Triple A affiliate.  Along came the Yankees.  After the season, Ring signed a minor league deal with New York and was optioned to Triple A Scranton.  Ring’s performance was noteworthy.  He struck out 39 batters in 42 innings, walking only 9 and yielding only 2 home runs.  His ERA was 1.93 and his FIP was 3.10, and his K/BB ratio of 3.5 represented his highest mark since notching a 4.0 over 31 innings with the Padres in 2007.  When Damaso Marte went down for the season with yet more shoulder pain and the team relying heavily on Boone Logan to do the heavy-lifting out of the pen, the Yankees finally called up Ring to the bigs two days ago to be the second lefty out of the bullpen.

One of the best parts about Ring is his ability to generate ground balls. In his past two years, Ring has gotten ground balls at a 51.4% and 57.1% clip in a sample of around 90 innings.One of the weirder things about Ring, though, is the fact that he’s not exactly a platoon-type pitcher.  From 2008 to 2010, he faced 202 left-handed batters and 207 right-handed batters.  He posted a 3.57 FIP against the lefties and a 3.34 FIP against the righties.  He struck out an identical amount of batters, 43, and walked 2 more left-handed batters than righties (18 vs. 16).  In other words, he doesn’t profile as a LOOGY.  You can see Ring pitch in this Spring Training video clip on MLB.com.  He looks a bit like Boone Logan in his delivery, although he appears slightly quicker to the plate.  You can see him throw a decent curveball and run a high-80s fastball up and in on a left-handed batter.  It’s nothing too impressive, to be honest.  There’s a reason he was a free agent this past winter.

As I detailed early this week, the final one or two spots in the bullpen are up for grabs.  Javier Vazquez and Ivan Nova (or Chad Gaudin) have the best shot at grabbing them, but it’s possible that Ring could work his way into the mix over the next few weeks.  If the Yankees are the Wild Card team, they will face the Twins in the first round.  The Twins feature a lefty-heavy lineup with Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Jim Thome and possibly Justin Morneau, as well as switch-hitter Orlando Hudson.  If the Yankees win the AL East, they’ll face the Rangers in the first round, and the Rangers have a fair amount of lefties themselves with Josh Hamilton, the seriously under-rated David Murphy, Chris Davis and Julio Borbon. Beyond that, the Rays feature Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena,Yankee-killer Dan Johnson, Matt Joyce and John Jaso.  It’s no easier in the National League.   The Phillies have Chase Utley and Ryan Howard and the Braves have Brian McCann, Jason Heyward and Melky “murder you from either side of the plate” Cabrera.  Elsewhere, the Reds have Jay Bruce and Joey Votto,  and the Padres feature Adrian Gonzalez and nobody.  A second lefty isn’t a must, but it is certainly nice to have the option.

It’s true that David Robertson and Boone Logan can both handle lefties, and they’ve proven themselves to be very solid options out of the bullpen.  But Royce Ring’s performance over the next few weeks may give the Yankees another left-handed option out of the pen come playoff time. Making the postseason roster would certainly be quite the career accomplishment for this burned out prospect with the funny name, and maybe he could end up contributing something to the Yankees’ October run.

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Avoiding Appeal To Authority Regarding Girardi

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 21 Responses »
Sep 152010


Over the last few days, the Yankee fanbase has been embroiled in debate over the decision-making of Joe Girardi. His handling of the bullpen has been the primary subject of discussion, as Joe has been resting relievers based upon a particular usage framework that he and his coaches have devised. Finding myself defending Joe during these debates, I constantly noted that we do not have all of the information needed to judge the Yankee skipper in this instance, as he is significantly more familiar with the health and durability of each pitcher on his staff. As such, it seems reckless to attack him for moves that are based directly upon the very information that we do not have. While I still believe in this argument, I do think it skirts close to one fallacy that needs to be avoided, and that is the appeal to authority mistake.

The appeal to authority fallacy occurs when something is claimed to be true or correct not due to inherent objective correctness, but due to the expertise of an authority who claims it to be true. Put simply, it is the claim that something is right because Expert A says it is right. While Expert A’s opinion is valuable and certainly lends credibility to the taken position, it does not necessarily mean that the position is correct. A debate about a question or process that has an objectively correct answer should never end with “because so-and-so said so.”

This fallacy comes up all the time in the context of baseball and managerial decisions. Often, when someone like me criticizes managerial decisions, someone will pipe up with some variant of, “He is an MLB manager with years of experience, while you are just some dude with a computer. I think he knows what he is doing.” The problem with this appeal to authority is that it assumes that all managers are perfect decision-makers who always know the right thing to do. As we have seen on many occasions, even the best managers make plenty of mistakes, as I am sure most of them would admit. While I think it is fair to look closely at each decision and question our own assumptions due to the relative expertise of the managers, it is a mistake to assume that the manager is always, or even usually, correct simply by dint of his having spent a lot of time in the sport.

Returning to the Girardi issue, I think it is important to distinguish between a lack of information and an appeal to authority. When we do not have information that is vital to the decision-maker, it is not an appeal to authority to suggest that we are not qualified to judge the choices made. However, to state that Joe knows how much rest his pitchers need and therefore must be right in how he is apportioning bullpen time is no different than saying he was right to bunt with Curtis Granderson in the 9th inning on Monday because he is the manager and the manager knows best. Just because Joe has the necessary information to make a decision does not mean that he made the correct choices.

So what can we say with any confidence? We can conclude that our lack of information puts us at a disadvantage in judging the bullpen moves based on usage limits that Joe has made in recent days. This does not mean that he was right to be careful with Joba and Robertson on Monday while allowing Wood and Logan to pitch again last night, just that as outsiders we cannot make an informed judgment on the issue. We are left to choose whether or not we trust Joe to do what is best for his guys based on the information that he has. Being that he has done fantastic work with his bullpens over the last 3 seasons, I believe in his ability to balance team need and player health and trust him to make the best moves for the long-term strength of the team. Your opinion may vary.

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The ALDS and the longmen

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 2 Responses »
Sep 152010

As the playoffs approach and the Yankees continue to whittle down their magic number (currently 11) and get closer to locking up a spot in this year’s playoffs, examination inevitably turns to the construction of the playoff roster.  In light of Nova’s outing last night, the Yankees will have a tough decision to make when determining who gets the long man job in the bullpen this year.

In 2009, the Yankees went with 11 pitchers in the ALDS: Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Chamberlain, Rivera, Hughes, Robertson, Marte, Gaudin, Coke and Aceves.  This year, the picture is almost complete.  Sabathia, Pettitte (provided he’s healthy), Burnett and Hughes will all have a spot on the roster.  That’s four of eleven.  After that is the bullpen.  Rivera is the closer, and Robertson, Wood, Chamberlain and Logan all represent mix and match options for Girardi in the late innings.  This leaves the team with 9 pitchers.  Barring injury, all of these pitchers will be on the postseason roster.  This means the following five pitchers will be competing for the final two spots: Gaudin, Mitre, Moseley, Vazquez and Nova.  Who deserves the 10th and 11th spot on the postseason roster?  Here are their stats since the All-Star Break:

Chad Gaudin: 26.2 innings, 3.38 ERA, .674 OPS-against, 20 strikeouts, 9 walks.

Sergio Mitre: 24 innings, 4.44 ERA, .818 OPS-against, 10 strikeouts, 7 walks.

Dustin Moseley: 55 innings, 5.07 ERA, .793 OPS-against, 26 strikeouts, 24 walks.

Ivan Nova: 26 innings, 4.78 ERA, .771 OPS-against, 18 strikeouts, 9 walks.

Javier Vazquez: 60 innings, 5.49 ERA, .870 OPS-against, 45 strikeouts, 25 walks.  In relief, Vazquez’s numbers have been better: 9 innings, 2 ER, 2 walks and 8 strikeouts.

As a result, it’s probably safe to say that Vazquez is the favorite for the tenth man in the bullpen.  He has been excellent in relief thus far, and would at least be able to make an emergency start for the team should something go drastically wrong.  There’s plenty of time left, and Vazquez could pitch his way out of the playoffs with a poor performance in relief, but if he continues to excel in these long-relief roles as the season ends it’s easy to imagine Cashman and Girardi penciling him in as the 10th man in the pen.

Assuming the Yankees go with 11 pitchers, this leaves a slot for one of Gaudin, Nova, Moseley and Mitre.  It’s probably safe to say that it’s a two-horse race between Gaudin and Nova.  Mitre and Moseley have been flat, and don’t provide any notable benefit to the club beyond being a living, breathing human being with the ability to stand on a pitching mound and throw 88 mph fastballs in the direction of home plate.  They’ve been fine for what they are, but they really have no future in the postseason.

This leaves Gaudin and Nova.  Over at River Ave. Blues, Joe Pawlikowski argues for Nova to be the eleventh man out of the pen.  He shows that Nova has had success in the first two innings of his outings this year, and has generally succeeded in early work before struggling the third time through the lineup.  He also notes that the Yankees really only have four effective relievers before Rivera, meaning that the club might need an additional arm that can provide innings in addition beyond Vazquez.  Joe’s argument in favor of Nova is compelling, and Nova is certainly the more flashy choice, so to speak.  He throws hard, he’s young, he’s a prospect, and, well, we haven’t had to watch him struggle, waste pitches and annoy us throughout the season like we have with Gaudin.  Right now, Ivan Nova is the greener grass on the other side.

There is one advantage that Chad Gaudin brings to the table, though.  In his career, he’s shown ROOGY tendencies and has been considerably better at getting out righties than lefties.  He’s held righties to a .252/.323/.416 line with a very impressive 2.78 K/BB ratio in his career.  Lefties have hit him much better, posting a .291/.385/.440 off him, and his K/BB ratio is a meager 0.92.  This year he’s shown almost no platoon advantage, (.851 OPS against v. RHP, .853 OPS-against v. LHP), but of course the sample size is only 60 innings.  If Vazquez is providing the team with 3 or 4 innings in one of the ALDS games, how much length do the Yankees really need from Gaudin or Nova?  It’s possible their value to the team in the playoffs could be not only in their ability to pitch two or three innings, but also to come in in the 5th or 6th inning and retire several right-handed hitters before handing the game over to a better reliever.

The 11th man out of the bullpen ought not to decide the American League Division Series.  Regardless, the Yankees will have a tough decision to make when considering Nova and Gaudin.  If the season ended today, I’d go with Nova.  But it doesn’t end today, and I hope the Yankees can use Nova in the bullpen down the stretch to see how he performs.  If he has difficulty adapting, then Gaudin might be a better option.  His recent success and platoon advantage mean that the Yankees could do far worse than him and his ROOGY upside.  I know, I’m as surprised as you.

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The Joba question

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 14 Responses »
Sep 142010

In last night’s 1-0 loss to the Rays, Girardi handed the game to Kerry Wood and Boone Logan after Sabathia’s masterful 8 inning performance.  After the Yankees failed to put runs on the board, Girardi’s bullpen grew thin and he turned to Chad Gaudin, who managed to escape unharmed but could not have been any more shaky and fear-inspiring, really.  After that, Sergio Mitre entered the game and promptly served up a walkoff home run to Reid Brignac. This left Mariano Rivera, David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain sitting on the bench and fans fuming at home.

After the game, Girardi revealed that he was saving Rivera for a save situation. Most managers abide by this rule, not bringing in their closer in a tie game in extra innings on the road since the best-case scenario is that the tie holds and the manager needs another inning from his bullpen.  This isn’t the smartest of baseball maxims, and Girardi himself doesn’t always subscribe to this rule.  He used Rivera last week in a tie game on the road.  Here, though, it seems that he was saving Rivera’s arm for only a save situation.  This means he wasn’t going to risk using Rivera unless victory was imminent.  This move is hard to second-guess because Rivera has been used heavily recently, and is not exactly young.  At minimum, I understand the reasoning behind it and it was hardly the worst thing that happened last night.  As for David Robertson, Girardi wanted to hold him out of the game because he threw a combined 48 pitches in Friday and Saturday’s loss to the Rangers.  Again, given the fact that the Yankees have nearly clinched a playoff spot, this move is defensible.

Yet, there is the question of Joba Chamberlain. Despite the fact that  he’s had 4 appearances in September and has thrown a whopping total of 50 pitches, Chad Jennings from LoHud reported that Girardi and Eiland wanted to give Chamberlain the day off:

“Girardi, Chamberlain and Dave Eiland all said Chamberlain is 100 percent healthy, but Chamberlain said the Yankees had talked to him about the fact he’s approaching 65 games this season. They wanted to give him a break, and Chamberlain said he was OK with taking it. Eiland suggested the decision was primarily about saving bullets.”

So here’s the big question. Is Joba already fatigued, or are they trying to prevent fatigue?  If Joba is already fatigued, and is battling an achy shoulder, forearm, back, groin or leg, then this move makes sense.  The team is about 3 weeks away from the playoffs.  The furor at Girardi is intense now; imagine what would happen if Joba hurt his shoulder in a relatively meaningless game and then revealed that he and the coaching staff had been trying to manage his aches and pains for a few weeks.  There’d be a lynch mob outside Girardi’s door, and rightfully so.  He’d actually deserve the accusation thrown at him last night that he’s “picking up where Torre left off”.  The team needs a healthy bullpen, and it’s Girardi’s job to manage their workload down the stretch.

Yet, if Girardi and Eiland were simply attempting to prevent fatigue and “save bullets”, as they said, then something doesn’t quite add up.  For one, there’s the way they’ve managed Swisher’s injury.  Sure, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll injure himself more by continuing to play on his bruised knee.  However, it seems equally unlikely that he’ll heal quickly while continuing to play.  Swisher has more appearances than Alex Rodriguez in September, and he looks like he’s running with a wooden peg-leg.  Swisher himself seems to want rest, saying that his injury is like “dragging around [his] leg.”  He continued:

“We took the MRI before and it said that there was nothing, but I found that really, really hard to believe. We’ll go in there tomorrow and whatever happens, just take it head on. It’s been going like this for a week, man. As much as you want to be out there and be playing, on one leg ain’t exactly the way I want to be going out there. … If we get this MRI and they say, “Take a week off,” I want to get healthy.”

To me, this sounds like “please stop playing me until I can recover”.  Another example is Brett Gardner.  Gardner got the night off last night with sore wrist, but was used as a pinch-runner in the late innings.  Given the physical toll stealing bases takes on your body, including the risk of jamming your thumb/hand/wrist when sliding headfirst into second base, one would have to imagine continuing to use him as a bench option isn’t the best way to get his wrist to heal.  Yesterday, Gardner said he couldn’t even pick up a bat.  A few hours later, he went barreling into second base as a pinch-runner.  It’s not the end of the world, but it’s not the most cautious route either.

Finally, there’s CC Sabathia.  This team relies heavily on Sabathia to be the anchor of the staff.  In the 2009 playoffs he pitched consistently on short rest and early indications appear to be that he’ll do this same this year. Last year he credited Girardi for managing his workload down the stretch as a reason why he was able to pitch so well into October and November. Indeed, his pitch counts in September of 2009 consistently decreased as the team got closer to the playoffs: 105, 118, 108, 105, 96 and 82. Now, Sabathia is a big guy and has shown throughout his career to be able to handle extraordinary workloads.  Yet, one must wonder why his bullets aren’t being similarly conserved.  After the seventh inning he had thrown around 100 pitches, yet returned for the eighth inning and finished the game with 119 pitches. It seemed that the conservation preference was decidedly in favor of the bullpen.

I don’t have a problem with resting Chamberlain per se, and the intent of this piece is not to criticize Girardi.  It is to try to  resolve what appears to be a discrepancy: that the team seems to be cautious about preventing fatigue with some players and ever-so-slightly careless with others.  It’s entirely possible that I’m reading too much into this, and that my knowledge is incomplete.  I don’t pretend to be a medical expert or know more than Girardi and the coaching staff, and if Joba is already fatigued then I have no problem with the way they managed him. If they were merely being cautious, though, then there are two big questions.  First, is Joba a reliever who needs more rest than others?  Secondly, why isn’t the staff similarly cautious with other valuable players?  I understand that giving players rest and trying to win isn’t an either/or choice.  Girardi is trying to do both, and it’s no easy task.  But given what we saw last night, one can be forgiven for wondering what exactly is going on.

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