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Players to Watch, NL Central

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Mar 112010

On Monday, I widened my scope on baseball and listed some players to watch for the NL West. Today, I’m gonna run down the not-too-highly-regarded National League Central Division. Despite producing a World Series winner recently–the 2006 Cardinals–fans, especially those of the AL East tend to think of the NL Central as one of the weakest divisions in the game. Regardless, there’s still some good talent there.

Let’s start, as we did with the NL West, with the 2009 division winner, the Cardinals. The guy we need to watch here is rather obvious: Colby Rasmus. As a rookie in ’09, he put up “meh” numbers at the plate overall–a .311 wOBA–but his IsoP was a respectable .156. His fielding in center field was also impressive, as he posted a 13.4 UZR/150 in 124 games. In 2010, we should watch for Colby to continue his impressive fielding and also to improve on his hitting. He’s projected to wOBA anywhere from .329 (Marcel) to .343 (CHONE). Those numbers may not be “blow-you-away”, but paired with his fielding, they would make him about a three win player.

For the second place Cubs, there are two guys upon whom to keep an eye. The first is an old friend: Xavier Nady. After what was essentially a career year in ’08, Nady missed most of 2009 with an elbow injury and is now recovering from Tommy John Surgery. The list of position players coming back from a second TJS is rather small, so it will be very interesting to see how Xavier fares this year.

The second Cub to watch is Geovany Soto. After an impressive Rookie of the Year season in 2008, Soto disappointed in 2009. While the peripherals were pretty solid–.103 IsoD, .163 IsoP–his raw numbers were pretty bad: .218/.321/.381. Part of this could’ve been bad luck. His BABIP in 2008 was a robust .332, but was a meager .246 in 2009. Gevoany had a slight dip in Line Drive percentage and a slight uptick in Ground Ball percentage in 2009, and his Fly Ball percentage stayed essentially the same. While the rise in ground balls might suggest more hits (ground balls are more likely to sneak through the infield than fly balls are to drop in the outfield), it appears that they were gobbled up by infielders, which obviously led to more outs, as did the slight fall in line drives. If those numbers can rebound, it’s possible that the Cubs’ backstop will have another strong season.

Moving to Milwaukee, we move to the left side of the infield. With the trade of J.J. Hardy to the Twins, young Alcides Escobar will man shortstop for the Brew Crew. In 2009, he hit .304/.333/.381 in 38 games (134 PAs). Escobar is very fast and if he improves his patience at the plate a bit and plays well in the field, he’ll be a solid player for the Brewers in 2010.

Cincinnati’s Joey Votto turned some head last year after a second place ROY finish in ’08. He pounded the ball in ’09–.303/.414/.567–and after dealing with an anxiety issue, he seems poised to pick up in 2010 where he left off. He hit 25 home runs last year and playing in Cincy, he’s definitely got a chance to crack thirty in 2010. First base is already rich with talent–Pujols, Tex, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Youkilis–and Joey Votto is ready to climb into the ranks of a top first baseman in the Major Leagues.

The Astros don’t really have much going for them. There isn’t much exciting young talent patrolling Houston, so I’m going to go with the vet: Lance Berkman. I pick Fat Elvis for a simple reason: I don’t think we realize how good this dude has been in his career. His line sits at .299/.412/.555/.967/147+. In an 11 season career, he’s gone at least .300/.400/.500 seven times and has had an OBP of at least .420 four times. Last year was a “down” year for Berkman–.274/.399/.509 and his OPS+ was “only” 139. It will be interesting to see how Berkman recovers. This year, and the next ones, will be crucial in cementing his legacy. If there is a quick decline–unlikely–it may rob him of Hall of Fame inclusion. If he picks it back up–or just stays at his current pace–Berkman should be destined for Cooperstown.

Pittsburgh, baseball wise, doesn’t usually have much to look forward to. However, Andrew McCutchen could change that. He was very impressive in his rookie season–11.0% BB rate, .185 IsoP, .368 wOBA, 128 wRC+–and we should all be looking to see what he builds on in 2010. We’ve likely got a budding star on our hands and even if it’s out of a misplaced, and probably inappropriate, sense of pity, it’s nice to see the Pirates have a young star they’ve developed on the rise.

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Yanks celebrating too much?

Posted by Chris H. at 4:05 pm 20 Responses »
Sep 082009

After the Brewers’ recent choreographed HR celebration which featured Prince Fielder as a bowling ball (that’s not surprising) and his fellow teammates as bowling pins, people are once again debating celebratory antics in baseball. In fact, Steve over at WW decided to bring the Yankees into the fold with the following:

The Yankees, this season, with all their walk-off wins, have been bordering on such a thing – with the home plate helmet toss and catch, Burnett’s cream pie facials, etc.

While I think the Brewers’ celebration was funny as a one time deal, I don’t think the Yankees have done anything “bordering” the Fielder moment, which was, to many, an unnecessary display of showmanship. The helmet toss and catch has been going on for a while now—I believe David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez made it famous—and Burnett’s cream pie facials occur well after the game is over. What we’ve seen from the Yankees isn’t comparable to what we witnessed in Milwaukee, is it?

I don’t think so, but maybe you disagree.

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Yanks were in on Cameron

Posted by Chris H. at 4:00 pm 10 Responses »
Sep 042009

From Ken Rosenthal (FOX Sports):

The Yankees talked with the Brewers about trading for center fielder Mike Cameron before the Aug. 31 deadline for setting postseason rosters, but the teams did not get close to a deal, major-league sources say.

Cameron has long been a Yankees’ favorite, but the club did not want to take on the rest of his $10 million salary, which would have amounted to more than $1.5 million.

The Yankees also did not view Cameron, a right-handed hitter, as a dramatic upgrade over Melky Cabrera, a switch-hitter who has shown significant improvement against left-handed pitching this season.

Cameron, 36, has an .814 on-base plus slugging percentage overall, an .871 OPS against left-handers. Cabrera, 25, has a .755 mark overall and a .795 mark against lefties. The Yankees were reluctant to reduce his playing time.

The other day I wrote about what could have been if the Yankees had traded for Cameron over the winter. He’s a distinct upgrade over Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner (and a combination of the two) and would have been a nice addition. For that reason, Rosenthal’s report is rather perplexing.

I can understand not trading for Mike Cameron if the Brewers’ asking price, prospect-wise, is too high. Why pay such a premium if you only get the player for a month or so. However, if the main issue was $1.5 million, then that’s a definite head scratcher. It looks like Hal Steinbrenner is really running the show, financially.

I also wonder about the team’s willingness to stick with Melky Cabrera when Cameron is an offensive and defensive upgrade in center (although Melky has come on lately, offensively). Maybe they were worried about the move to the AL or maybe they were worried about disrupting the team’s chemistry. Or, perhaps they were worried about making room for Cameron on the roster. I’m hoping these were the real reasons as to why they didn’t pursue Cameron—not the $1.5 million or so that he has left on his contract.

Brian Cashman and co. have been smart this season in terms of non-moves (e.g., Washburn, Halladay). While I would have liked for them to add Cameron—he’s a good player—with Brett Gardner on the mend and Melky hitting well, this could end up being another one that works out for the club.

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What if... Mike Cameron

Posted by Chris H. at 6:15 pm 34 Responses »
Sep 012009

This season, Melky Cabrera has been worth 0.7 WAR as a center fielder. He’s not hitting particularly well (wOBA is .326, second lowest in the AL) and his defense has been below average (UZR/150 of -6.9). He’s basically better than he was a year ago, but when you consider that Melky was worth 0.1 WAR last season (barely better than replacement), the upgrade we’ve seen this season isn’t very tremendous.

That brings me to Mike Cameron. In the offseason, the Yankees were said to be interested in acquiring Cameron from the Brewers. We heard a few trade ideas floating around, including a package that featured Melky Cabrera and Kei Igawa (while I’m not sure about Igawa, Melky always seemed like the centerpiece for any deal). However, the Yankees apparently wanted to keep Melky after his strong play in the Dominican League and they wondered if they had something with Brett Gardner. Plus, Cameron’s $10 million salary was a bit of a hurdle, especially after adding Andy Pettitte and Mark Teixeira (and CC and A.J.). For these reasons, Mike Cameron did not join the Yankees this winter and the team was relatively content with trying Melky and Gardner in 2009. Looking back on it, though, I wonder if it was the right decision.

Melky has been mediocre and Gardner has been solid (2 WAR), especially on the defensive side of things, yet Cameron has been stellar in center for Milwaukee. His .258/.358/.459 line and .354 wOBA would have been a significant upgrade over Melky or Gardner and his defense (7.7 UZR/150) is on par with Gardner’s, although Gardner has been better. Cameron’s speed has all but faded, though, as he has only stolen 6 bases on the season. All in all, because of his bat and his glove, Cameron has been a 3.9 WAR player, good for 5th best in baseball (at CF).

Knowing what you know now about Melky, in particular, Gardner and Cameron, would you have traded Melky for Cameron in the offseason (Gardner could have been a stolen base threat off the bench)? He seems like he would have provided the Yankees the best of both worlds—hitting and defense—and, although $10 million isn’t chump change, being a 4-win player has made him more than worth it. Imagine a lineup that featured him behind or in front of Cano in the playoffs—that would have been something.

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Yanks send Wright to Milwaukee

Posted by Chris H. at 1:40 pm 2 Responses »
Feb 042009

From the Yankees’ website:

The Yankees moved Wednesday to bolster their Minor League depth chart, acquiring catcher and outfielder Eric Fryer from the Brewers for left-hander Chase Wright.

The 23-year-old Fryer played last season for the Class A West Virginia Power of the South Atlantic League, batting .335 (129-for-385) with 10 home runs and 63 RBIs in 104 games.

Fryer was Milwaukee’s 10th round selection from Ohio State in the 2007 Draft, playing 55 games in left field and 39 games behind the plate. The Yankees said he would be assigned to Class A Tampa of the Florida State League.

At an appearance Tuesday in Pleasantville, N.Y., Yankees general manager Brian Cashman acknowledged that he would consider trading some of the club’s pitching talent to procure position players in the near future.

“You have to trade from strength, and our current picture of our franchise on the development side is that we are top-heavy on pitching depth, with both starters and relievers,” Cashman said. “The bottom end, we have a lot of position players that we think are coming, but they’re in A-ball or below.”

Good luck to Chase Wright, as he could get a shot with the Brew Crew. Fryer sounds like a decent bat for a DFA’d player.

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