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Projecting the 2011 Minor League Rotations

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 7 Responses »
Feb 032011

With the off season winding down, I figure that it is about time to see where everybody is going to wind up. The Yankees manage to emerge from a slow post-2011 off season while hanging on to all of their top pitching prospects. I have prepared this graphic in order to attempt to project where they will all end up.

Brian Cashman wasn’t kidding when he said that our upper minor league rotations are full. The Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre Yankees and Double-A Trenton Thunder will have, by some measures, 10 prospects to fill 10 rotation spots. Craig Heyer and Shaeffer Hall are certainly the runts of the group, but they are a big improvement on the years when these kinds of guys took those spots. There is some downside to that of course – players won’t really be able to move up to a higher level in the middle of the season without an injury clearing the way. And of course, an injury means that a valuable prospect just went down. Last season saw guys like Dellin Betances and Manuel Banuelos make unexpectedly quick rises through the minor leagues. That won’t be as easy for Brett Marshall and Jose Ramirez, and it could keep a strongly performing Graham Stoneburner stuck at Double-A. Plus, if Nova gets bumped down to the minors, it throws the whole system into disarray. Still, that’s not a bad problem to have.

Scranton gets to start off with Andrew Brackman, Hector Noesi and David Phelps. Each has their own little test. Brackman has to continue to pitch within his mechanics like he did last year, since this is his last year with any options. David Phelps has to prove that his stuff plays to advanced hitters. Hector Noesi has a similar story – he needs to show whether or not his control of the strike zone holds up as he nears the majors. For Noesi, it will be about defining whether or not he can be a Major League innings eater or a serious impact starting pitcher. Adam Warren needs to follow up his standout performance at Trenton last season with another one, or start to face a possible bullpen conversion. D.J. Mitchell needs to learn to get lefties out, or he will be the first starting pitcher converted to the bullpen after Dellin Betances has a 15 strikeout game.

The story in Trenton is no doubt about Banuelos and Betances. Betances needs to stay healthy. He hasn’t had a truly healthy season since 2008, and smart watchers are very concerned that he’ll continue to be brittle. Height issues aside, Banuelos has none of those concerns. We’ll be looking for him to reestablish the amazing velocity he showcased last season, and continue to put up eye-popping numbers. Graham Stoneburner both has to follow up a phenomenal breakout season and deal with the struggle of being overshadowed by some many prospects above him. No matter how well he does, Stoneburner will probably not budge from the Trenton rotation all year. Too many guys are ahead of him. Heyer and Hall aren’t great prospects, but Heyer did pull off a 0.6 BB/9 last year, so who knows. Maybe he’s pretty good.

Brett Marshall could make Tampa very exciting this year. He’s a better prospect than people realize, and certainly made an impression after coming back from surgery last season. His challenge will be to strike out more batters with his 95-97 mph fastball, since he has averaged just 7.0 K/9 in 3 minor league seasons. Jose Ramirez joins him in the underrated category, and a strong performance could see him competing with Marshall to bump one of Hall or Heyer from Trenton. Jairo Heredia is still seeking redemption behind them, but hasn’t recovered well from shoulder issues. Sean Black may be the next David Phelps, but I know nothing about Kelvin Perez.

In Charleston, we’re searching for a breakout. Bryan Mitchell is one of the bigger sleepers in the organization. He profiles a lot like Brett Marshall, with wild, untamed flamethrowing stuff and at times a killer curveball. Varce and Burawa are experienced college arms who could climb up the ladder quickly, and both Richardson and O’Brien have some potential to be decent. Its a solid bunch, even if none have become all that exciting yet. However, a strong performance could put any of them on the map as future MLB prospects, especially Mitchell.

Of course, these are just projections. Adam Warren could be bumped from the Scranton rotation in favor of a veteran (one of Colon or Garcia perhaps) or Ivan Nova. On the lower end, the Yankees could push experienced players like Zach Varce or Daniel Burawa to Tampa, while cutting either Jairo Heredia or Kelvin Perez. One of the EST starters could impress in spring training and start in Charleston. Burawa could also be one of several to be converted to relief pitching along with D.J. Mitchell and Taylor Morton.

Which rotation is the most interesting to pay attention to? Obviously, its a contest between Trenton and Scranton, though Marshall and Ramirez could make some noise down in Tampa. Scranton has 5 legitimate prospects, while Trenton is kind of dragging along their bottom two. Still, I go with Trenton, where Betances and Banuelos will put on a show two days out of every 5.

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Frank Piliere on Yankee Prospects

Posted by Steve S. at 7:22 am 6 Responses »
Jul 022010

MLB Fanhouse National Analyst and former Rangers scout Frank Piliere did a chat yesterday where he weighed in on some Yankee farmhands. Nothing earth shattering here, but it gives you an idea of the consensus view on some of the high profile Yankee farm products. Here’s some highlights:

1:01
[Comment From RajRaj: ]

What do you think about Hector Nosei and Gary Sanchez ? Any future with the big league club?
Wednesday June 30, 2010 1:01 Raj
1:02
Frankie Piliere:

Absolutely. Sanchez is a monster offensively and it is showing already in the GCL. Last year I really liked Noesi but didn’t see a spot for him with the Yankees. Tough to break in there unless you are a frontline guy but who knows. He’s a real good #3 for me.
1:04
[Comment From ZakZak: ]

Is Mark Melancon easily forgettable or is it just me? I’d really love for him to get a shot, especially with the Yankees bullpen struggling. Every single time he’s called up though it seems he only pitches every 10 games. What are your thoughts on him?
Wednesday June 30, 2010 1:04 Zak
1:05
Frankie Piliere:

It’s the Yankees and at some point he has to come up and make an impression quickly and show some more command. Other young relievers have broken through like Robertson by forcing their way into the mix. He has to do the same. Melancon has plus stuff but he has to show the command.
1:10
[Comment From ZakZak: ]

Brett Marshall is coming back from TJS, he’s has some electric stuff. What are the odds he fallows the Brack/Dellin line and dominants?
Wednesday June 30, 2010 1:10 Zak
1:11
Frankie Piliere:

It won’t be as simple for him I don’t think. I scouted him before he got hurt and he was 92-96 and the secondary pitches flashed plus but he was pretty crude. I like him a lot but he has a lot to work on.
1:17
[Comment From 28 in 201028 in 2010: ]

Frank, have you heard anything for the July 2 international free agency period? Specifically, who are the yankees linked to? Thanks as always Frank and great job.
Wednesday June 30, 2010 1:17 28 in 2010
1:18
Frankie Piliere:

They remain on Roughned Odor, who was also at the PG National and the Yankees were on him heavily there as were a number of clubs. This steroid scandal makes things really crazy though, still got some feelers out to see what else is happening.
1:30
[Comment From zs190zs190: ]

Sorry for so many Yankees questions but have you scouted Brackman this year, Frank? The stats look pretty darn good. The hits allowed and the ERA are high but the other important peripherals (K ratio, K/BB, groundball ratio, etc) are all excellent, are they the result of a 24 year old beating up A ball competition or has he figured it out?
Wednesday June 30, 2010 1:30 zs190
1:31
Frankie Piliere:

Scouted him in spring training and again came away unimpressed. Been about 5 different times I’ve seen him now where he hasn’t showed the plus stuff I hear about. I’m curious to see him this season because i keep hearing the big velocity is there, but I’ve heard that before so I guess we’ll see. He’s an interesting guy so I hope he has figured it out.
1:54
[Comment From 28 in 201028 in 2010: ]

Frank sorry aobut all the yankee questions, but whats your opinion on Montero catching long term?
Wednesday June 30, 2010 1:54 28 in 2010
1:54
Frankie Piliere:

I think he can do it, like I’ve said before. Now, I don’t think that means the Yankees WILL do it but he’s capable. He’d be a mediocre defender at best but he’s capable.

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Minors Recap, 5/28

Posted by Eric Schultz at 1:17 am No Responses »
May 292009

Scranton falls to Syracuse, 5-4

  • Casey Fossum started, giving up 3 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in 4 1/3 innings, while striking out 3.
  • Edwar Ramirez continued his major league struggles, giving up 2 runs on 3 hits and a walk in 1 2/3 innings.
  • Jonathan Alabaladejo allowed 1 hit and struck out 1 in 2 scoreless, while the man he was trade for, Tyler Clippard, shut the Yankees down over 1 1/3 innings.
  • Reegie Corona and Austin Jackson were each 1 for 5.  Jackson’s .356 average on the season is more than triple Corona’s .118 average.  Ouch.
  • Todd Linden was 2 for 4 with a double.
  • Shelley Duncan was 2 for 4 with a walk.
  • Juan Miranda was 1 for 5.
  • John Rodriguez was  1 for 3 with 2 walks.
  • Eric Duncan and Chris Stewart were each 2 for 5.

Trenton beaten by New Britain, 7-2

  • Ryan Pope was roughed up, giving up 6 runs (3 earned) on 5 hits and a walk, while striking out 1.
  • Josh Schmidt dominated, giving up just a walk and a hit in 3 shutout innings, while striking out 5.
  • Kanekoa Teixeira struck out 2 and walked 2 in 2 shutout innings.
  • Justin Snyder, Seth Cooper, and Kevin Smith were each 1 for 4.
  • Chris Malec was 2 for 3 with a double.
  • Noah Hall was 1 for 3 with a walk.

Tampa tops Fort Myers, 8-3

  • DJ Mitchell pitched very well, giving up 2 runs (1 earned) on 3 hits and 2 walks in 6 inning of work, while striking out 8.  His Tampa ERA is high because of a rough first outing, but 22 strikeouts in 15 1/3 high-A innings is very impressive.  He also had a 6-3 groundout-flyout ratio, so he’s keeping the ball on the ground with his 91-93 mph sinker.
  • Tim Norton gave up a  run on 3 hits in 2 innings, with 1 strikeout.
  • Austin Krum was 1 for 5 with a double.
  • Jesus Montero, DH’ing, was 3 for 4 with 2 home runs (giving him 7 on the year), raising his average to .338.  Just after I comment on his recent power drought, Jesus makes me look silly.  Well done sir.  Did you know that Montero hasn’t homered since the 6th inning of tonight’s game?
  • Austin Romine was 1 for 5, and stole his 5th base of the year.
  • Brandon Laird was 2 for 4 with a walk.
  • Matt Cusick was 2 for 3 with 2 walks.

Charleston leads Greenville, 2-0 (suspended in 7th due to rain)

  • Brett Marshall was great, striking out 9 in 6 shutout innings, while allowing 5 hits and just 1 walk.  This is the kind of outing I’ve been waiting to see from him.  He also had a 6-3 groundout-flyout ratio.
  • Abe Almonte was 0 for 3.
  • David Adams and Corban Joseph were each 1 for 3.  Joseph stole a base.
  • Melky Mesa was 1 for 3 with his 12th homer of the year.
  • Jose Pirela was 1 for 3 with a double.

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There's A New Marshall In Town

Posted by admin at 1:44 pm 6 Responses »
Mar 192009

For the Yankees organization, the 2008 draft did not begin well.Their first and second round picks both saw the August 15th deadline pass without signing with the club.

The Yankees selected Gerrit Cole, a flamethrowing prepster out of California, with the first round pick, only to be left at the altar when he inexplicably chose to attend UCLA over a multi million dollar contract from the team he had said was his favorite growing up.

Scott Bittle, the Yankees’ second rounder, had shoulder issues serious enough that team doctors strongly advised against his signing.

“Sandwiched” between Cole and Bittle was the under-the-radar selection of Jeremy Bleich, drafted 44th overall. Bleich, though flagged with elbow issues during the season and labeled a “reach” where the Yankees picked him, appears to be a solid signing as the Stanford southpaw looks like a polished college arm who could move rapidly through the Yankees system.

However, Bleich has very little projection left in his game – essentially what you see is what you get – going against the trademark of Yankees draft selections in recent years, namely the dedication to high risk/reward athletes with their top draft choices.

For the Yankees, the saving grace of the ’08 draft likely hinges upon the path of their sixth round pick and the prepster’s powerful right arm. Brett Marshall, an 18 year-old prototypical Texan power pitcher, does not have the sky-high ceiling of a Gerrit Cole or Andrew Brackman, but there is plenty of upside to his game.

Marshall had basically gone unheralded as a high school product until his mid-90’s fastball fell into scouts’ laps his senior year. He had previously worked in the low-90s exclusively, but saw a bump in velocity which allowed him to hit 96 on the gun, quickly drawing a great deal of attention from major league clubs and their amateur scouting departments.

In a recent interview with NoMaas.org, Marshall described the experience:

I threw the first two innings, and my first fastballs were 94, 95, 96 [mph].  The scouts were like “what the?! Who is this kid?”  They were flipping out, and even I didn’t believe it.  I said “96? What?”

Marshall then detailed how the Yankees completely reworked what many termed to be his violent or max-effort delivery. His pitching repertoire was also drastically altered as Marshall’s hard slider (85-87mph) was scrapped for a hard curveball that is regularly 77-78 mph.

The changes came under the direction of Yankees minor league pitching coordinator Nardi Contreras, who often teaches the curve and shelves the slider with top prep arms. (He did the same when Phil Hughes was signed out of high school)

I only have 4-seam, changeup, and curveball now.  They took away my slider and 2-seam at instructs; they’re in my back pocket for now.  Whenever I get up to Tampa and high-A ball I’ll be able to pull them back out.  They just want me to spot my fastball and command three pitches, and right now it’s going really well (smiles).  My mechanics have changed so much.

Marshall also shelved his two-seam fastball to focus on his changeup, a pitch which he considers a strength.

[M]y changeup has always been my go-to pitch, and now I think it’s dirtier than ever, I’m not going to lie.  It’s almost my best pitch.

In addition, the Yankees raised Marshall’s armslot, another mechanical change the organization enlisted during Hughes’ development.

I’m feeling so much better about myself and my arm angle changing to more over the top now, it’s just going to give me more confidence.  I’m a lot smoother.

Since the extensive amount of work put into his new delivery, Marshall quoted Contreras as saying his mechanics were “almost perfect.” Going into his first full professional season, the changes seem to have only increased the confidence level of a pitcher already instilled with an abundance of poise.

He’ll take that self-assurance onto the mound when he begins facing wooden bats for the first time.

I’m not worried about little flare hits when I get all in the handle because now I’ll break their bat.  I have a feeling I’ll break a lot of bats because I love staying inside.  That’s me: throwing mid-ninety on the inside corner.  There’s some good hitters, don’t get me wrong.  They’re all good hitters, and as you go up a level they’ll still hit, but I’ve got confidence on the mound, and I’m not going to change that.

Last year, over six innings with the GCL Yankees, Marshall struck out eight, allowed two hits, zero runs and walked two.

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