Wednesday, Chad Jennings wrote an article about Brett Gardner and how he has the “inside track” for the centerfield job. We’ve already discussed that quite a bit, so I wanted to talk about something else that caught my eye.
But those numbers hide two things Gardner has done better than any other outfield candidate in Tampa: He’s walked twice as often as he’s struck out, and two of his three hits were bunt singles. Dropping bunts and avoiding strikeouts have been two of the necessary adjustments to Gardner’s game.
I will not argue with the latter part. Gardner avoiding strikeouts is crucial. In both his Major League (.352 SLG, .096 IsoP) and Minor League (.383 SLG, .094 IsoP), Brett Gardner has not hit for nearly enough power to justify the amount of strikeouts he’s had. He made up for it in the minors with a walk rate that pushed 14%, but that wild success hasn’t followed to the majors. His walk rate is still okay at 8% in the bigs, but with his lack of power, we shouldn’t be expecting the walks to keep coming.
Gardner has not shown any power ability at the Major League level and once pitchers start getting hip to that, they will challenge him in the zone. They may think, “What’s the worst that could happen? This guy’s not going to take me deep. And, he may even get himself out with a strikeout.” The less power Gardner has, the more he’s going to be challenged. If he’s going to be challenged in the zone more, the walks will definitely decrease. There are two ways he can combat this. Well, there’s really only one. Developing power just isn’t going to happen for Gardner, so instead, he must improve his eye and put more swings on balls in the zone.
In 2009, he displayed a good eye. He swung at only only 17.2% of pitches outside of the strike zone, while the average hitter swung at 25.1% of balls out of the zone. Laying off of bad pitches isn’t Gardner’s problem. His problem is laying off of pitches in the zone. His zone swing percentage was only 50.7, 15.2 points behind the league average of 65.9%. This is something that could have contributed to Gardner’s relatively high strikeout numbers. While his K% (16.1) was lower than the league average (20.3), it’s a bit much for a guy who hits for as little power as Gardner does. Brett has to do a better job of recognizing good pitches and turning them into singles, with the occasional double.
The part of Jennings’ article I disagree with is the part about Gardner improving his bunting. While it’s good for a bottom of the order hitter to be skilled at bunting, I’m not sure how much sense it makes for Gardner. While he does have the speed to beat out good drag bunts, how often will that happen? A good part of Gardner’s offensive contribution is his speed on the basepaths. If he’s giving himself up through bunts, he won’t be able to get on base as much as when he’s swinging away or working a walk. A sporadic sac bunt out of Gardner will be a good thing since he’s not exactly a big bopper, but the more he works on bunting, the less he works on actual hitting (see above paragraphs). I’d much rather Gardner work on turning good pitches into singles than see him work on turning good pitches into bunts–be they sacrifices, drags, or foul balls.
Pete Caldera of the Bergen Record caught up with Brett Gardner after yesterday’s game against the Twins at Hammond Field – a game in which Gardner bunted for a single and subsequently outran a pickle between first and second (he got back to first safely) – and, naturally, the conversation the turned to Gardner’s productive base running.
“I don’t like getting out when I’m hitting, but… stealing bases, I take a lot of pride in,” said Gardner. “You don’t want to just go out there and run. You’ve got to know who’s on the mound, know who’s at the plate and try to pick your spots.” While Gardner was referring solely to his love of the stolen base in that comment to Caldera, in general, he was just an effective base runner while on base last year, advancing when he had to on balls on the ground, in the air, past the catcher, etc. Though I have discussed his stellar speed score in the past, another number, Gardner’s EqBRR – a value that measures a player’s base running contributions in runs – is certainly worth noting. Gardner’s EqBRR in 2009 was 4.9, the eleventh best mark in all of baseball. That’s basically half a win (10 runs equal a win). Mind you, Gardner accomplished this feat with very limited playing time, therefore, I expect him to better his EqBRR this season.
Photo by Getty Images
Yesterday, Joe Girardi discussed a few things with Mike Francesa (H/T to Steve for this). I’ll briefly run through the points General Joe made and my reactions to them:
1. Nick Johnson will bat second.
This is something with which I whole-heartedly agree (and Moshe does, too). Johnson at the top of the order will give Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez yet another man to drive in. While Johnson may not be the fleetest of foot out there, the important thing is being on base. In fact, in 2009, Johnson scored 11 times from second base when a single was hit. In the same situation, Curtis Granderson scored five times. I wouldn’t worry too much about Johnson “clogging the bases”.
2. Curtis Granderson is going to play center field.
Though I ran the numbers, way back on my second day at TYU, and they came out saying Granderson in left and Gardner in center would be better numerically, I don’t have a problem with this. If Granderson really has issues defensively, he can be moved. No matter what position he’s at, Granderson’s bat will play, and he’s still likely to be a good defender in center. Regardless, Gardner-Granderson-Swisher will be fine offensively and will be one of the best defensively.
3. Cano will hit fifth to avoid “stacking lefties” (5-9: Cano, Posada, Granderson, Swisher, Gardner).
I’m rather surprised by this, actually. I thought for sure Jorge would’ve been the five place hitter. Frankly, though, it doesn’t matter. The reality is that the 5-8 guys listed above could all bat at any of those spots (and some of them could bat higher) and this “problem” just speaks to how strong and “circular” the Yankee lineup is. Cano’s power should play well in the five spot and having a lot of guys on in front of him–from Jeter through A-Rod–should help correct his problems with runners on.
4. Girardi believes Cano’s struggles w/RISP are sample size issues.
I agree. Cano’s eventually going to hit like he normally does when there are runners in scoring position. Perhaps “forcing” the issue by putting him higher in the order will correct this issue. As long as Robbie puts up numbers like he did in ‘05-’07 and ‘09, I’ll be happy.
5. Posada will catch 100-120 games.
He caught 111 games last season, and that was with a hamstring issue, so he could do that again this year. At his age, though, catching that many games may be wishful thinking. If it happens, though, the Yankees are in great, great shape. An additional note, Girardi added that Johnson will primarily DH (see below) and on days that Posada sits, Johnson will still DH. This is clearly aimed at keeping Jorge healthy.
6. Nick Johnson will play 1B 2-3 times a month, spelling Tex, who will DH on those days.
This, too, surprises me. While it’s nice to give Tex a little break, I’m not sure if it’s necessary. Johnson’s generally been a strong fielder, though, so it can’t hurt–unless, of course, Nick gets hurt.
7. Granderson plays every day.
Yes. 100% yes. The only way Curtis can work through his problems against left handers is to face them as much as possible and get as many reps as he can. Obviously, if there isn’t progress by May or June, it’s time to scrap that plan. I have faith, though, in Granderson and Kevin Long to fix the problem and make Curtis even better than he is.
In an interview with WEEI, while discussing left field for his ballclub in 2010 and stressing the importance of defense at that position, Red Sox architect, Theo Epstein, inadvertently made the case for starting Brett Gardner in left field for the Yankees as well. And, though it pains me to give any Red Sox fan credit, his argument was rather effective.
Here’s what Epstein had to say via a WEEI transcript (the interviewer’s words are in bold, Epstein’s are not):
We knew Julio Lugo stunk and Lowell was hurt. But we never thought Bay was less than average or Ellsbury was less than good.
What you will see this year, contrast with Carl Crawford’s left field defense for example, with what we’ve typically see in left field. We’ve had bat-first left fielders. If you don’t see a left fielder making an egregious mistake, that doesn’t mean he’s doing a great job. Look at how hard it is to hit doubles when we play Tampa Bay. We’ll hit balls that would doubles that turn into outs, that’s a huge swing. If that happens once a game, once a series, you take a ball that would be a two-base hit and zero outs recorded and turn it to zero on base and an out recorded, that is a monumental swing. If you add that up over the course of a season and add that into a player’s offensive value, it changes the whole nature of what the player contributes. Again, those players who contribute offensively and turn those balls into outs that others wouldn’t defensively that makes a really valuable player.
That’s basically the reasoning behind playing Brett Gardner in left field, right? Although his bat may not be the typical weapon wielded by most left fielders in the baseball, Gardner does excel at run prevention – more so than the average left fielder – and that has real, tangible value, value that can be measured and then translated into wins (WAR).
Long-term, I’m not a big fan of Gardner as the Yankees’ everyday left fielder, but, this season, he can be a very useful player in the left corner at Yankee Stadium. His defense alone will make it worthwhile for Joe Girardi to deploy him. As said by Epstein, such fielding can provide a big impact, and alter the “whole nature” of a player’s contributions.
Photo by the AP
I had a number of stories open on my browser that I felt deserved some attention, but could not work into larger posts. Here they are:
Yankees Universe Begins 2010 Campaign
As most of you are aware, this blog was formerly known as The Yankee Universe, until we received a cease and desist from the Yankees requiring us to stop using the name. The Yankees Universe fan club will launch its 2010 program today. While it may seem strange that I am linking to the program that caused us plenty of angst, the fact of the matter is that the proceeds go to a good cause, benefiting pediatric cancer research at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. Give it a look.
Fack Youk on Rob Neyer’s Yankee Concerns
Rob Neyer wrote a post this morning suggesting that Mark Teixeira is likely to be the Yankees best player in 2010, and that this is a bad development for a club that has typically been about strength up the middle. While I agree with Rob that having talent up the middle is the easiest way to build, Jay at Fack Youk stated succinctly why Yankees fans should not be particularly concerned:
Having a solid core of talent up the middle is a surefire way to build a winning team over the long term, but there are other ways to do it. Having above average talent at basically every position, a solid defense and a top notch pitching staff can certainly work in combination as well.
I just wanted to add that the Yankees, of all clubs, have the resources to build in the way that Jay suggests. Unlike clubs that might need to rely on a handful of great players and therefore need great talent up the middle, the Yankees can afford to spend on having above average players all around the diamond and on the pitching staff.
Is Brett Gardner The Next Nyjer Morgan?
I’m not convinced, but the numbers seem to support the comparison to Morgan (who was worth almost 5 wins in 120 games last season), as this article at Fangraphs suggests:
Assuming average offense from Gardner, over ~150 games, he looks like a 2.5-3.0 WAR player in 2009. You can see why the Yanks felt comfortable not going nuts for Johnny Damon, who probably isn’t any better than that.
But Morgan (whom, incidentally, I also see as about 2.5-3 WAR in 2010) is still the more interesting comparison. I wouldn’t have had him as even a 2.5 WAR player before last season, and I doubt many would have. Yet he put up a 4.9 WAR once he got to show what he could do in the field. Should we expect ~5 WAR from Brett Gardner in 2010? No — that would be insane. But if Nyjer Morgan could do it in 2009, Gardner can in 2010. I suppose the Yankees would even settle for Michael Bourn’s “mere” four win 2009.
As some of you may have noticed, I am not a huge believer in Gardner. I see him as a very useful bench piece, as well as someone who could hold his own if an outfielder got injured. However, I am fully aware that the numbers do not support my assertion, and I hope that my opinion on Gardner turns out to be dead wrong. If Gardner comes close to Nyjer Morgan’s 2009, he should be in the Yankees outfield for the foreseeable future.
From Mark Feinsand:
Vazquez threw his first bullpen session of the spring today, and when he glared in from the mound and saw Posada’s familiar face behind the plate, he felt a sense of comfort.
“I asked him, ‘Do you remember the way I pitch?’” said a smiling Vazquez. “I’ve known Jorge for a while now. It’s good to have him back there.”
Posada was equally pleased to see his former teammate back in pinstripes.
“It’s good to have him back,” Posada said. “He really cares and he really understands how we do things here.”
Why, that’s unpossible!!! I thought everybody hates Jorge!
Seriously, it is good to see that Vazquez and Posada have a good rapport. Hopefully we can avoid some overblown storylines about pitcher-catcher discord the first time Vazquez shakes Jorge off more than once in a game.
According to Bryan Hoch (MLB.com), manager Joe Girardi “said that he knows Granderson can play left or center field without issue and believes that Gardner can learn to play left. While Granderson is athletic enough to go back and forth between left and center depending on if Gardner is in the lineup, Girardi said he would prefer to have players in a set position.” This is an important aspect when deciding who will play left and who will play center for the Yankees in 2010. If the club has significant doubts about Gardner’s bat that cannot be alleviated by his defensive value, you could see them play him in left so that they have the option of improving the position at the trade deadline. If they were to play Gardner in center, only to see him get exposed over the course of a full season, then the club would likely have to find another left fielder – good left fielders are more available than good center fielders – which would then force Granderson to shift to center midway through the year. That does not appear to be an ideal situation for Girardi.
While it may not matter who plays center or left field defensively, it will matter with regards to roster flexibility.
Photo by Reuters
Yesterday, Moshe posted 25 questions/issues going into Spring Training. Tackling them one-by-one in full posts would take way too long, so I’m going to give some quick hit answers to each one.
1. Jorge’s decline: Steve’s got legit concerns about Jorge declining, and if there’s anyone on the Yankees who’s going to decline, it’s likely to be Jorge. The average projection for Jorge doesn’t seem too ominous, but you never know with older catchers. My guess? Jorge doesn’t fall off a cliff, but he’s not as productive with the bat as he was last year.
2. The back up catcher: barring injury, I think this job is Cervelli’s to lose. His bat is iffy, but it’s okay for a back up catcher and his defense is solid.
3. The Jesus and 2010/catching: If we see El Carpentiero at all in ‘10, it’ll likely be as a September call up. As for whether he can handle catching, I’m cautiously optimistic. Regardless, that bat is downright dreamy and I want it sticking around in the Yankee organization for years to come.
4. Nick Johnson: Like with Hideki Matsui in ‘09, keeping Johnson off the field could be the key to keeping him healthy. If he does stay healthy, I think he could at the very least come close to matching Hideki/Johnny Damon, he’ll just do it in different ways. His power should bounce back by being in YSIII and I’d expect his HR/FB anomaly from 2009 to correct itself as well.
5. Cano’s defense: I think he’ll stay where he is, which is frustrating ’cause he’s brilliant out there at times.
6. Jeter’s contract situation as a potential distraction: I don’t think it will be an issue until after the ASB.
7. A-Rod’s defense: I think we’ll see the second half A-Rod on defense–still below average with the range (but what an arm!), but not as bad as he was immediately after returning.
8. Utility role: I say Pena, unless Russo really wows everyone in ST.
9. Which Swish: It may not be an exact copy, but I’d put good money on the ‘10 Swisher looking a lot like the ‘09 Swisher.
10. Grandy vs. lefties: Hopefully, Kevin Long can work some magic. And, yes, moving to YSIII will definitely help C-Grand.
11. Gardner as an everyday player: I’m cautiously optimistic for Gardner, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on this issue.
12. Randy Winn’s possible decline: 2009 looks like one of two outliers in the last 8 seasons, 2006 was the other. If he can bounce back, great. If not, it’s not a huge sunken cost and he’s replaceable.
13. Gardy or Grandy in CF: I’ll be happy either way, but the numbers point to Gardner in CF.
14. Hoffmann or Thames: I think they’ll go with Hoffmann, just to see what he’s got unless Thames absolutely destroys the Grapefruit League.
15. October hangover for SPs: It’s possible, but they’re veterans who know how to manage their bodies. Hopefully, there are no ill effects.
16. Javy as unclutch: I see good things for Javy this time around.
17. A.J.’s health: Burnett will pitch at least 185 innings in 2010.
18. 5th starter: I’ve written more than once about this. Joba it shall be.
19. BP or SWB: See above.
20. Damaso: He won’t be as lights out in the playoffs, but he’ll be his usual lefty destroying self since he’ll finally be healthy for a full year.
21. Second lefty: I don’t think a second lefty is a must, but I think General Joe likes the idea of having two lefties, so I think they’ll at least start off the year w/2 LHRPs.
22. If not, who gets the job: No thinking, gut reaction, Melancon.
23. Mo and…aging…: I’ll defer to Chris Turk for the answer.
24. Girardi’s lack of job security: The only way it becomes an issue is if Joe really screws up this year, which won’t happen.
25. Room in the budget if needed: They’ll find it.
So, there you have it: 25 quick answers to 25 complex questions. Before you know it, it’ll be November and we’ll be looking back on these (hopefully after a 28th championship) issues and their outcomes. Here’s to hoping they all turn out the way we want them to.
NoMaas.org again brings us a great Yankee interview. Brian Cashman sat down to talk all things Yankees. Its really a great read. I recommend reading the whole thing. I’d like to comment on a few things.
SJK: On to the 5th starter competition — Joba Chamberlain lost significant juice on his fastball last year, in some estimates over 2 mph. How concerned are you about that and is that something which will weigh into your decision about who becomes the 5th starter?
CASH: Performance will dictate. He was inconsistent last year. He has completed his development program. May the best man win.SJK: But, speaking of what you just said about sample sizes, how can you make a decision based on Spring Training?
CASH: You are forced to make those types of decisions. You take into account their prior history, but really no one is coming in with an edge. We’ll see what we see. Maybe someone shows up out of shape or pulls a hamstring, that helps make a decision. Maybe someone is throwing ball better than someone else.SJK: Will Phil Hughes’ reported innings limits factor into the 5th starter competition?
CASH: No, it will not be a factor on his chances of becoming 5th starter. We will mandate what his innings limits will be and Joe Girardi and Dave Eiland will have full authority on how they would manage those innings – just like last year with Joba. They could truncate it at the beginning, it doesn’t matter me. It only matters to me if they exceed their limits.SJK: Is the loser of the Hughes/Joba battle going to be permanently placed in the bullpen or is this just a 1-year situation?
CASH: There is no permanent anything. Your team has to be flexible. The great thing is we have guys who have the ability to both go in the bullpen and start. If somebody gets hurt, somebody’s performance suffers…Chad Gaudin can start and relieve, Sergio Mitre can start and relieve, Aceves can start and relieve, Hughes and Joba can start and relieve. These guys have the ability to succeed at both ends, some more than others.
I don’t know about you, but that’s definitely the mindset that I want to hear coming from Brian Cashman. He pretty much said, “Whomever works hardest and proves themselves best will get the spot. We’ll worry about the innings and bullpen stuff after that.” That’s fantastic. Play off the competition between the two. He didn’t say it outright, but the loser seems to be destined for the bullpen, not Scranton, even though he may be converted back to starting. Great news.
He’s also not making any excuses for the players. “[Joba] has completed his development program. May the best man win.” That puts the onus squarely on the player’s head. I love it.
SJK: If the season were starting tomorrow, who would be your starting CF?
CASH: Curtis Granderson. But if Gardner proves our team is better with him in CF and he can be an everyday outfielder…he has a lot to show in a short amount of time in Spring Training. We believe he is better in CF and we believe Granderson would be terrific in LF. But, Granderson was acquired to be our everyday CF and that is our expectation.
Brett Gardner isn’t going to be handed the center field job, but he will have a shot at it. Cashman doesn’t seem to have much of a concern that moving Granderson will harm his long term viability in center. He’s basically arguing what I’ve been advocating for, “If the team is better off with Gardner in center, Gardner will be in center.”
SJK: Do you think we’ll see Jesus Montero in the Boogie Down at some point in the season?
CASH: I don’t see him in the Bronx this season. He needs to take his next step in the process.SJK: Do you think his future is behind the plate?
CASH: We hope so. His value is highest as a catcher. His bat will find a way into the middle of the lineup, that’s without a doubt. Whether he stays behind the plate, is a first baseman, a rightfielder, a DH – that remains to be seen. But he’s got one of the best throwing arms in the minors, he’s got some of the best blocking…he’s just so big, mechanically he takes a lot longer in his release. That’s an area he needs to shorten up.
This is the most interesting portion of the interview to me, because we get some genuinely new information, even if we could have deduced some of it before:
- 2010 isn’t Montero’s year. We pretty much assumed this already, but Cashman confirms it. Jesus Montero already doesn’t really have a spot on the roster, and they probably don’t consider him one of their early depth call-ups. He has development left, and I’m sure the Yankees are in no hurry to get his arbitration clock running. We might even see him start in Double-A, though I doubt it.
- Outfield is an option. I can’t remember a Yankee official ever once mentioning Jesus Montero as a potential right fielder before. Not only does Cashman do that, but he mentions Montero’s strong throwing arm (which he exaggerates a bit, but we have heard in the past of a plus arm) and struggles with footwork behind the plate. I don’t remember Mark Newman ever really discussing Montero in another position. So please correct me if I’m wrong, but this might be a first.
Good stuff NoMaas. Way to ask the right questions.
We authors here at TYU all seem to bring something different to the proverbial table. Moshe grinds out meaningful posts that are well developed and thought provoking. E.J. does the prospect thing. Steve likes to touch on the “hot button” issues of Yankee-land. Chris and I delve into a more analytical realm. Of course, we all reach across “genres” and touch on all of these things. Like we who write about them, each of the Yankee hitters brings his own special skills to the plate and the field.
Jorge Posada
Let’s kick it off with the man behind the plate: Jorge Posada. It’s my contention that Jorge is one of the most underrated players of the last twenty years. His offense out of the catcher’s spot has been both consistent and at a high level for 15 years and aside from Mike Piazza, he has been the finest offensive catcher in the game (Joe Mauer will take this title shortly, but Posada’s done it for a long time). Anyway, that’s enough gushing. Jorge’s value, like many Yankees, comes from patience and power. His .277 average is quite average, but his .379 OBP is more than solid and his .480 SLG is good for anyone, let a lone a catcher.
Mark Teixeira
It’s hard to think of something Mark doesn’t do well. He plays solid defense. He’s a good contact hitter (.290 career batting average). He’s patient at the plate (.373 career OBP, 80 walks per 162 games). He’s got great power (.545 SLG, .255 IsoP, 80 XBH per 162). Basically, Tex is arguably the most well-rounded player on the Yankees. Teixeira brings value to the team in a big variety of ways and I speak for all Yankee fans when I say I’m incredibly happy he is on the team.
Robinson Cano
Robbie Cano is a player with incredible talent, and is probably the third best second baseman in baseball–I give Pedroia the edge over Cano because Rogaine’s defense is better–but there are hols in his game. His defense is flashy at times, but awful at others. His lack of on base skills is also a bit frustrating (.033 IsoD, 4.2% BB%, average is around 9%). Cano, however, does two things very well: he hits for average (.306 career BA, 11.7 career K%, league average is about 20%) and hit for power (.480 career SLG, .173 IsoP, league average is about .155). If you’re looking for a patient hitter to work walks, Cano isn’t your guy. However, if you’re looking for a guy who’s gonna make a lot of contact and hit the ball real hard when he does make contact, look no further than Robbie.
Alex Rodriguez
A-Rod is like Tex. He does everything well. He may strike out a bit, 130 per 162, but he still hits for a high average at .302, gets on base at a .390 clip (.401 since joining the Yankees). Alex mashes the ball, with a career .576 SLG and .204 IsoP, with a 162 game average of 79 XBH, and 583 home runs in his career. Alex’s defense has taken a down turn in the last few years, but his offense cannot be overlooked. He’s one of the top hitters in the game and it’s quite clear from where his value comes.
Derek Jeter
Derek Jeter is the more patient, but slightly less powerful, version of Robinson Cano. His defense is so-so (though it was sparkling in ‘09), but his offense, especially relative to his position, is dreamy. A career .317/.388/.459 hitter, the Captain is good for around 200 hits and 70 walks per season. Like Teixeira and Rodriguez–but with lesser power and more contact–Jeter does everything well.
Brett Gardner
In a word: speed. Gardner’s speed is what will give him value to the team in 2010 and beyond. His on-base skills were very good in the minors, but they haven’t been great at the major league level. If he can keep his OBP where he kept it last year–between .340 and .350–then his speed will be incredibly valuable because he’ll be on base enough for his steals to matter. His lack of power, though, makes it seem possible that pitchers will simply challenge Brett and not allow him to reach via the walk.
Curtis Granderson
Curtis’s best feature is his power. His career slugging percentage is .484 and his IsoP is .212. Curtis does have a bit of a hole in his swing–149 strikeouts per 162–but he walks at a decent clip: .344 OBP, 67 BBs/162, 9.5% career BB%. If Curtis’s BABIP can rebound (.321 career, .275 in ‘09), and he continues to hit for power and walk at an average rate, Curtis’s offense will be quite valuable in 2010.
Nick Swisher
Disclaimer: I love Nick Swisher. Anyway, whenever discussing Nick Swisher–or players like him–with casual fans, I lead off with this: if you like players that hit for high batting averages, Nick Swisher is not gonna be a guy you like. Nick is never going to hit .300. What Nick is going to do, however, is still valuable: he walks a lot and he hits for a lot of power. Swisher’s career BA is a lowly .245 but his career on base percentage is .357 and his career slugging percentage is .460. That means an IsoD of .112 and an IsoP of .216; those are excellent marks. Swisher’s value comes from his patience and his power.
Nick Johnson
Last but not least is new-old- friend Nick Johnson. Johnson is like the “lite” version” of Swisher: he hits for more contact, .273 as opposed to Swish’s .245, but he also hits for less power: .447 and an IsoP of .174. However, Johnson’s on base skills are supreme: .402 career OBP, 15.6% walk rate, 0.93 BB/K. Out of the two hole, Johnson’s skill set will be invaluable in 2010. Not only will his hits move Derek Jeter around, but his walks will set up more RBI opportunities for the big boppers behind him.
Thus far, I’ve taken multiple looks at offensive projections and what they could signal for the Yankees in 2010. In some of those posts, I’ve briefly gone over the defensive projections for some players. I’d like to go more deeply into that today. To do so, I’ll be looking at these age adjusted UZR projections.
Leading off, I’ll start with the leadoff hitter: Derek Jeter. Last season was a defensive renaissance for the Captain. The process started in 2008 when Jeter saw his UZR/150 jump from -16.7 in 2007 to -0.7, so he was essentially average. In 2009, Jeter’s defense sky rocketed to an 8.4 UZR/150 mark, the first time Jeter was in the black in terms of UZR. My eyes, for one, seemed to back this up as Jeter’s range to his left seemed much, much better (though it looked like he still had trouble going to hsi right). No matter how we slice it, Jeter had a damn good fielding season in ‘09. For 2010, this system projects Jeter to be at -2.0/150. That’d be a big hit from last season–a 10.4 run drop–but considering where Jeter’s been according to UZR, that’s not all that bad. I suspect Jeter’s defensive projection, despite the great fielding season in 2009, is lower because of two things. The first is Jeter’s age; he’s not getting younger and most shortstops don’t get better in the field with age. The second is the fact that it looks like Jeter’s 2009 season was the outlier in terms of defense. Hopefully, Jeter can repeat last year’s performance on the left side of the infield, but I won’t be shocked if he doesn’t.
Let’s stay on the left side of the infield and look at Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod’s fielding was up and down last year, but it was mostly down. His arm looked as strong as ever, but his range was severely decreased. Now that Rodriguez is farther removed from his hip surgery, I expect his range to get a bit better. I don’t think he’ll be in the black, but he won’t be as far in the red as he was last year (-11.7/150) and the projection agrees with me and sees Rodriguez posting a -5 UZR/150. With his offense, as long as he’s not Adam Dunn in the field, he’s a positive. A six run improvement, even if it is still on the wrong side of the number line, would be welcomed warmly.
In my humble opinion, there is no more puzzling player on defense than Robinson Cano. There are weeks when Cano looks like he’s the greatest second basemen to ever play the position. Then, the very next week, he’ll look completely lost at second. Robbie ended last year with a -5.2 UZR/150, his second straight year with a big negative number (-7.0 in ‘08). He’s projected for -2.0/150 and that makes sense. The only consistent thing about Cano’s defense is inconsistency. Regardless, he has the offense to way out-hit a -2 UZR projection and I will not be surprised at all if Cano posts another 4.0-5.0 WAR season.
No one sparked a bigger debate about the merits/demerits of UZR in 2009 than first baseman Mark Teixeira. Despite showing what looked like great defense at first, Tex posted a UZR/150 of -4.1. It’s worth noting that UZR has its holes for every position, but it’s least effective and accurate when dealing with first basemen, so take that number with a grain of salt. The projection sees Mark improving to a 0 UZR/150. In the last four seasons, Tex’s UZR/150 numbers have been -1.8, -5.2, +9.3, and -4.1. Those numbers are all over the place, so I’d expect that 0 UZR/150 to come to pass as it’s right in the middle.
2010 should give the Yankees their strongest defensive outfield in a long, long time. Brett Gardner seemingly gets to everything, Curtis Granderson covers a lot of ground, and though he doesn’t make it look pretty, Nick Swisher’s got good range in right. Starting with Swisher, we see he’s projected for a +1 UZR/150, which is just around where he was last year (-1.2).
Either position, LF or CF, is projected to be a positive for Gardner. Interestingly enough, Gardner’s CF projection, +8, is higher than his LF projection of +2. Regardless, it looks like we’re heading into 2010 with Gardner as the starting left fielder. That projection, though, is way too bearish. It’s that way probably because of a small sample (17 games) and I expect Gardner to field much better than that in 2010.
Curtis Granderson is projected positively in center field as well, with a +1 UZR/150 prediction. That seems about right, considering that’s where he was last year (1.6) and where he was in ‘08 (-9.3). It’s likely, though, that Granderson will outplay that projection because he won’t be relied upon to cover much ground, since he won’t have Magglio Ordonez (-5.8 UZR/150) or Carlos Guillen (-12.7 UZR/150) flanking him.
Bench outfielder Randy Winn should get his fair amount of time in the field as well; in right and left (+11 and +7 respectively), he projects positively.
The Yankees should have a solid defense in 2010 and paired with a strong pitching staff, the Yankees should do pretty well in the run prevention category.
