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Creating Lineups

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 3 Responses »
Jan 242011

We pretty much know what the 25 man roster is going to be at this point, so let’s see what the different lineups will be. Using the latest round of CAIRO Projections from RLYW.net, I’ll put the player’s projected wOBA vs. RHP/LHP next to his name/position.

These projections are a combination of what I think the lineups WILL be:

vs. RHP

1. Jeter, SS .334
2. Swisher, RF .353
3. Teixeira, 1B .381
4. Rodriguez, 3B .382
5. Cano, 2B .379
6. Posada, DH .352
7. Granderson, CF .363
8. Martin, C .333
9. Gardner, LF .336

So against RHP, everyone projects to be at least average, with the middle of the lineup solidly above that mark. The median wOBA is .353. Let’s see what they could do versus LHP; there are a few ways this could go.

Option 1 vs. LHP (Granderson sits, Gardner to CF, Jones to LF)

1. Jeter, SS .364
2. Swisher, RF .367
3. Teixeira, 1B .393
4. Rodriguez, 3B .392
5. Cano, 2B .354
6. Posada, C .358
7. Jones, LF .332
8. Martin, C .357
9. Gardner, CF .310

The median wOBA here is .358. That’s not much of a change from the vs. RHP lineup, but it’s still a slight uptick. If we replace Gardner with Curtis Granderson (and his .297 projected wOBA vs. LHP), the median wOBA stays the same, since his would then be the lowest wOBA instead of Gardner’s. So, quickly, that tells us no matter which lefty outfielder is replaced, there won’t be much of a difference in the lineup. I suspect Joe Girardi will just keep the hot hand in there until he cools. All three outfielders in that shuffle–Granderson, Gardner, and Jones, are good enough at what they do that neither will leave an extraordinarily huge hole when absent from the lineup.

Just about everyone, myself included, sees a bounce back for Derek Jeter. After all, how could we not? Last year was the worst year of his career and there’s almost no way he can be that bad again. I wonder, though, if his slide continues, will Girardi pull him from the leadoff spot? If he does, who takes his place? I say it’s one of Gardner or Swisher. Gardner could work because he sees a ton of pitches, walks, and can steal bases. Swisher could take it because he’s a switch hitter with no drastic platoon split and provides a little more power, which would be useful for those batting behind him. He does strike out a bit more, though, but he showed in 2010 that he can cut back on them.

The rest of the lineup is just fine if you ask me. You could switch Tex/A-Rod if you wanted to, but the difference would probably be negligible. If anything, this lineup gives me confidence that the Yankees can still make the playoffs. Any lineup that features those hitters has more than a puncher’s chance at making it to October. Making it through October with that (current) pitching staff would be a challenge, but this team can definitely make it there. And once you’re there, anything can happen.

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Expectations

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 5 Responses »
Jan 032011

A new year is upon us and soon, a new baseball season will be upon us. We’re going to have expectations with certain players, as we always do. We have to think of realistic expectations, though. For this post, I’m going to look at each player still on the Yankees from the 2010 team, examine his 2010 wOBA and see if that’s a reasonable expectation for 2011.

Robinson Cano, .389 wOBA

Last year was a career year for Robinson. He ripped the cover off the ball and everything seemed to click for him on offense. He ripped righties and lambasted lefties. He hit for a high average. He hit for power. Expecting another year like that would be unfair, but, Cano is in his age-based-prime and clearly has an incredible talent for hitting. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a .389 wOBA from him again. Somewhere in the .375-.385 range seems right for Robinson.

Nick Swisher, .377 wOBA

Cutting the fat, yeah, I think this is definitely do-able. His 2009 wOBA was .375, just two points off of last year’s career high mark. He had basically the same year production-wise, he just did it differently. I’m confident that Swisher can definitely put up a .370+ woBA again in 2011. What I’m not sure of is if it will look more like 2009 with a lot of walks and a lot of power or if it will look like 2010, with similar-but-slightly-diminished-power and a higher average.

Mark Teixeira, .367 wOBA

I have no problem saying this: Mark Teixeira will have a wOBA higher than .367 in 2011.

Alex Rodriguez, .363 wOBA

I have no problem saying this: Alex Rodriguez will have a wOBA higher than .363 in 2011.

Brett Gardner, .358 wOBA

This is the most interesting case. Obviously, Gardner proved himself in 2010. He survived the entire year and hit much better than we all expected him to. His super-plus defense made him a huge value for the team . Part of me thinks that Gardner can do it again. Part of me doesn’t. If I’m setting an over/under for Gardner’s wOBA, I’m going to say .340.

Jorge Posada, .357 wOBA

Posada’s another catch-22 of sorts. In one way, we should expect equal or worse performance from Posada in 2011 because he’s getting old. Older players, especially catchers, tend not to hit at .357 wOBAs with regularity. On the other hand, Posada is a good hitter who’s stayed above average in terms of offense for a while. As a full time DH, he’ll be without the physical burden of catching. Because of that, we could see a rise in offense from Jorge. I think .357 is a fair over/under and I think Jorge will be over. I may be in the minority there.

Curtis Granderson, .346 wOBA

Curtis Granderson’s season was a bit odd, wasn’t it? There were some good things–10% walk rate, .221 IsoP–but some bad things as well (most of the season against LHP). All together, it added up to an above average, but not spectacular, .346 wOBA. Call me an optimist, but Granderson will out do that .346 wOBA. I’ll put the over/under at .355 and take the over.

Derek Jeter, .320 wOBA

I have no problem saying this: Derek Jeter will have a higher wOBA than .320 in 2011. Jeter may be getting older and 2010 may’ve been a career worst year, but there’s no way he can hit that poorly again. At least, I hope there’s no way he can hit that poorly again.

Francisco Cervelli, .315 wOBA

This is fair and I expect him to do that again. If he does, with less playing time, I’ll be happy.

Russell Martin, .306 wOBA

His 2009 wOBA was .307 after a .351 wOBA in 2008. Martin’s bat seems to be trending downwards, which is troubling. Despite a super low wOBA though, he was able to put up over 2 fWAR in 2010, thanks to his defense. In the last two years, Martin has had a low BABIP despite relatively high LD%s, so maybe 2011 is when he gets a BABIP rebound. That would definitely cause a wOBA rebound. Given the last two years, I think we should expect around a .310-.315 wOBA for Martin, but he could easily out perform that.

Ramiro Pena, .233 wOBA

Same as Cervelli.

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Trading Brett

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 31 Responses »
Dec 142010

Yesterday, we read a bit about the Yankees and Royals not necessarily being good trade partners when it comes to Zack Greinke.

As the article states, this makes sense. Aside from Jesus Montero, the Yankees don’t have much in the way of up-the-middle talent, save for someone like David Adams, but he’s far from a package headliner. Eduardo Nunez could also be considered up the middle “talent” but he’s a throw in at best.

This does, however, sell Brett Gardner a bit short. He can most definitely play center field, and his name, according to Jerry Crasnick, came up in trade talks between the Yankees and Royals. Obviously, for a guy like Greinke, Gardner’s not going to be the headliner. But, let’s forget specific deals for a moment. Would you include Brett Gardner in a trade?

Because I would. Gardner definitely has value to the Yankees. He’s cheap and can provide good production which gives him good value. However, there’s a chance we never see a season quite this good out of Gardner ever again. I’m always a proponent of letting a guy go a year early rather than a year late. Granted, this strategy works more when discussing free agents. I guess we could call the trade version of this selling high.

Replacing Gardner could be an issue since there’s no one in line to simply take his job. The Yankees could opt to run a platoon for LF if Gardner left via trade, but there doesn’t seem to be much of a point to that. Unless you’re getting something great in a Gardner-inclusive package, you might as well just keep Gardner and sign a platoon partner for him/Curtis Granderson.

In a package for Greinke, I’d include Gardner because that could lessen the prospect load. However, if we’re trading Gardner straight up for someone or as a headliner, I wouldn’t do that. If Gardner is the headliner, chances are he’d more valuable to the Yankees than the player he’d be traded for would. Of course, if the Cardinals really want to turn Colby Rasmus into Brett Gardner, I’d be happy to do that swap, and drive Brett to the airport.

The chances that Brett Gardner gets traded are very small and there are two fundamental questions: Would you trade Brett Gardner? Yeah, sure. I’d definitely explore the option. Will Brett Gardner be traded? Probably not. And if he isn’t traded, I won’t be mad.

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WAR Projections: Brett Gardner

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 10 Responses »
Dec 132010

To say Brett Gardner had a surprising 2010 would be an understatement. Behind a fantastic walk rate of 13.9%, Gardner ended up with a .383 OBP and a .358 wOBA. All of that led to a 123 wRC+. Combine that with a 21.9 UZR, and you get a fantastic 5.4 fWAR.

There are people that doubt Gardner can do that again. I’m going to cautiously agree. To expect a guy with as little a track record as Gardner to put up a 5.4 fWAR season again is expecting a lot. But, then again, a .358 wOBA is definitely do-able for Gardner, especially if he can keep walking like Nick Johnson. What do Bill James and CAIRO say for Brett?

James projects a .349 wOBA and CAIRO projects a .329 wOBA. To save time, let’s take the rough average of those two for our projection. That comes out to .339 for the average. We’ll use that going forward, using the same process as in my A-Rod post.

I’ll run this three ways: with Gardner playing CF full time, with Gardner playing LF full time, and with a hybrid approach. For they hybrid approach, I’ll use the same positional adjustment as this year: -4.4. We’ll also assume +10 defense for LF, +7 for CF, and +8.5 for the hybrid (average of the two). I realize those are aggressive numbers, but I’m comfortable going that high for Gardner. Assume 10 runs per win.

CF: 3.56 fWAR
LF: 2.86 fWAR
LF/CF: 3.02 fWAR

Those numbers look pretty okay to me. The 2.86 fWAR might look crappy compared to last year’s, but let’s remember that 2010 was likely Gardner’s absolute ceiling and that considering how little he’s paid, he’ll likely still be a valuable asset at 2.86 WAR.

We’ve also got to remember that the 3.02 fWAR scenario is most likely, especially if Gardner continues his performance against lefties while Curtis Granderson continues to struggle a bit (unless he really is #cured), and a platoon guy like Scott Hairston is signed to hit against LHP.

.339 is also a bit low on the projection, considering he just wOBA’d .358. I don’t think he’ll get as high as .358, but I don’t think he’ll go as low as .339. In projecting, though, it’s probably better to be conservative.

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Aceves and Gardner Require Surgery

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 4:55 pm 7 Responses »
Dec 012010

Mark Feinsand with the news:

Alfredo Aceves had surgery on Tuesday, Nov. 30, at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital to repair a fractured left clavicle sustained in a bicycle-riding accident in Mexico. Surgery was performed by Yankees Team Physician Dr. Christopher Ahmad. Aceves has been prescribed six weeks of initial rest and will need a total of three months for full rehabilitation.

Brett Gardner is scheduled for surgery on Tuesday, Dec. 7, at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital for right wrist tendinitis. He is expected to be ready for the start of spring training.

Gardner dealt with wrist issues for much of the second half of the season, and many have theorized that his statistical dip in that portion of the year can be attributed to the injury. Gardner did hit fewer line drives down the stretch than he did in the two months prior to the injury, so there may be something to this theory.

As for Aceves, I doubt the Yankees are counting on him to be a major cog in the 2011 bullpen, but he could be a pleasant surprise if he can return to full strength and perform as he did prior to his back injury. He can serve as a swingman and fill the role that was shared by such luminaries such as Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre in 2010. Aceves is almost certain to be an improvement over those arms, and his return would add much needed depth to a bullpen that will likely miss Kerry Wood.

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Another Thames?

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 7 Responses »
Nov 222010

Via Steve Adams at MLBTR, we’ve heard that five teams are interested in Wily Mo Pena. The Yankees originally signed him as an amateur free agent, then traded him away.

As Steve said, he had a strong finish in 2010 in AAA Portland and offers minimal risk. Chances are, he could be had on a minor league deal, just like Marcus Thames in 2011. So, is he worth an offer? Let’s take a look.

Pena hasn’t played in the Majors since an awful 64 game stint with the Nationals in 2008. He had a .509 OPS in 206 PAs. The year before, he split time between Boston (.675 OPS) and Washington (.855 OPS). For his career, Pena’s got a .447 SLG (.194 IsoP) but a .307 OBP (.054 IsoD, 5.87 unintentional walk rate). His career actually looks a lot like Marcus Thames’s before Marcus came back to the Yankees in 2010. Before coming to New York this past season, Thames had a career line of .243/.306/.491 (.248 IsoP, .063 IsoD, 7.74 uBB%).

If we’re imagining Pena on the Yankees, though, we’d know that it would probably be in Thames’s intended role of lefty-masher. Let’s see what Wily’s done against lefties in his career.

Like Thames, Pena looks a little better against lefties. He’s got a .340 OBP against them to go along with a .457 SLG (.344 wOBA). If he could replicate that career line in 2011, I’d be happy.

There’s also the issue of fielding. As we all know, Marcus Thames is essentially a statue in left field. Luckily, he was mostly DHing by the end of the year. Pena’s not fantastic out there (-21.8 UZR in the OF since 2002, so that’s about -3.1 per season). However, he wouldn’t be playing all that much and a -3.1 UZR is acceptable for a part time player.

Based on all of that, I think Pena would be worth looking at again. He’s not a butcher in the field and can hit lefties well. He’s also not a complete loss against righties; his rate stats are “meh” but he does have a .202 IsoP against them, so if he runs into the right pitch from a non-southpaw, he can do some damage. While Brett Gardner held his own against lefties and Curtis Granderson improved slightly against them at the end of 2010, the Yankees should still try to have a strong right handed hitter on the bench.

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Take it or Leave it?

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 5 Responses »
Nov 152010

Let’s play a game here. The Bill James projections for 2011 are out on FanGraphs. They’re a bit rosy for my liking (and everyone’s I assume) but I still wanna take a look at some aspects of them to see if I’d “take it or leave it” for 2011.

The first thing I’ll do is assume that Andy Pettitte is pitching for the Yankees in 2011. The category I’ll go for here is innings pitched. James has Andy pegged for 140 innings pitched, probably because he’s coming off of a season in which he pitched his fewest innings ever (min. 20 games started). Given Andy’s age and health from last year, I would take 140 innings from him. I’d like more, but I’d take what I could get from a guy as old as Andy.

James foresees 42 walks from Robinson Cano. He had 57 total in 2010. However, his previous career high was 39. I’d like to see if Robbie could push it to 60 walks in 2011, but I won’t take my chances. I’d take 42 and be on my way.

A .344 wOBA for Derek Jeter? Oh HELL yes I would take it. Not only would it be a 24 point increase from 2009, it would likely make Derek the most valuable offensive SS in the American League.

144 games from Alex Rodriguez. That’s not a lot, but it’s more than he played in during both the ’09 and ’10 seasons. Like Pettitte, given his age, yes, I’d take that. Expecting more could be greedy.

111 games for Jorge Posada? No, I’ll leave that one. By being able to DH, I think Jorge will be able to crack at least break the 120 games mark for the first time since 2007 (he played in 120 games in 2010, but I’m saying MORE than 120 games for 2011).

A 3.76 FIP in 177 innings for Phil Hughes. Yes. Without even thinking twice. I think Phil CAN break those marks, but I’m not sure if he WILL break them in 2011. He may be able to break the innings mark easily, but that’s a good FIP goal for him.

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Jeter, Teixeira, and Cano Win Gold Gloves

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 6 Responses »
Nov 092010

The results are in, and somehow Jeter steals another Gold Glove:

C: Joe Mauer (3rd award)
1B: Mark Teixeira (4th)
2B: Robinson Cano (1st)
3B: Evan Longoria (2nd)
SS: Derek Jeter (5th)
OF: Carl Crawford (1st)
OF: Franklin Gutierrez (1st)
OF: Ichiro Suzuki (10th)

I fully support the Cano and Teixeira selections, despite the fact that the advanced metrics are mixed on them. Taken as a whole, the metrics see both as somewhere above average, and combining that with strong scouting reports and personal observation makes me comfortable with them receiving Gold Gloves. I feel the same about Brett Gardner failing to win: he was definitely in the conversation, but the three winning outfielders were deserving as well.

Jeter’s selection, on the other hand, is a travesty. He was likely one of the 2 or 3 worst shortstops in the AL this season. The metrics, scouts, and most fans agree that he is mediocre at best, and atrocious at worst. He won because of his reputation as a hitter, which is incredibly silly but quite unsurprising. As a Yankee fan, I wish we could just forget it ever happened.

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Money Savers and Drainers

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 3 Responses »
Oct 262010

As I like to do every season, I’m going to compare the Yankee players’ theoretical fWAR dollars to their actual salaries and see which players gave the Yankees the most value and which players drained the most money. We’ll do batters today and pitchers tomorrow.

We’ll do the list in WAR order (nine highest), then we’ll sum it up at the end.

1. Robinson Cano, 6.4 fWAR worth $25.5MM. Salary: $9MM. Value: +$16.5MM
2. Brett Gardner, 5.4 fWAR worth $21.6 MM. Salary: $0.425MM. Value: +$21.175MM
3. Nick Swisher, 4.1 fWAR worth $16.4MM. Salary: $6.75MM. Value: +$9.65MM.
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3.9 fWAR worth $15.3MM. Salary: $32MM. Value: -$16.7MM.
5. Curtis Granderson, 3.6 fWAR worth $14.3MM. Salary: $5.5MM. Value: +$8.8MM.
6. Mark Teixeira, 3.5 fWAR worth $14.00MM. Salary: $20MM. Value: -6.00MM.
7. Derek Jeter, 2.5 fWAR worth $9.8MM. Salary: $21MM. Value: -$11.2MM
8. Jorge Posada, 2.4 fWAR worth $9.7MM. Salary: $13.1MM. Value: -$3.3MM.
9. Francisco Cervelli, 1.1 fWAR worth $4.4MM. Salary: $0.418MM. Value: +$3.82MM

Value Ranks:
1. Gardner
2. Cano
3. Swisher
4. Granderson
5. Cervelli
6. Posada
7. Teixeira
8. Jeter
9. Rodriguez

Italics means negative value.

This list should really surprise no one. The Yankees’ high priced, older talent had a bad collective 2010. Brett Gardner had what will likely be his career year while making just over the league minimum, so of course he’s going to return great value. And despite our frustrations with him, Frankie Cervelli did give the Yankees a bit of value this year. I think we’ll see the Melky Plan with Francisco: hang on to him while he’s cheap, then jettison him when he starts hitting arbitration and starts making too much money.

It also turns out that the Granderson deal was not some horrid thing that should’ve been undone. Granderson is relatively cheap for next year ($8.25) but goes up a bit in 2012 and ’13 ($10, $13 option) so granting a rebound year, he should return good value next year as well.

Nick Swisher makes only $9.75 next year so assuming he can repeat this year–or do something between 2010 and 2009–he’ll probably return value again, too.

As for the guys in the red, Teixeira is the only most likely to bounce back, considering his relatively young age compared to Jeter and Rodriguez and Posada. He also plays the least physically demanding position of the three and had a down year with the bat. I don’t think we’ll see the aforementioned trio in the black unless they have monster years.

Check back tomorrow when we look at the pitchers, starters and relievers.

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Brett and Nyjer

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 5 Responses »
Oct 062010

Way back on February 19th, FanGraphs’s Matt Klaassen wondered if Brett Gardner could do in 2010 what Nyjer Morgan did in 2009. Morgan came out of seemingly no where to post a fWAR of 4.9, fueled mostly by an insanely high 27.6 raw UZR mark.

Morgan’s performance at the plate was nothing to sneeze at either. He hit .307/.369/.388, which led to a .340 wOBA and a 108 wRC+. So, as we’d expect, great defense + above average hitting = high WAR.

Klaassen ended his piece with the following:

Should we expect ~5 WAR from Brett Gardner in 2010? No — that would be insane. But if Nyjer Morgan could do it in 2009, Gardner can in 2010. I suppose the Yankees would even settle for Michael Bourn’s “mere” four win 2009.

To say any of us expected Gardner to be worth 5+ WAR would be lying. But, regardless of our “low” expectations, Gardner ended up posting a 5.4 fWAR. How did he do it and how does it compare to Nyjer Morgan’s 2009?

In the field–Gardner spent most of his time in LF in 2010–Gardner nearly matched Morgan. In 150 games, he posted a raw UZR of 22.0 (21.7 in LF, 0.3 in CF). This is something we see every day with Brett: great defense no matter where he goes on the field. A UZR mark this high will certainly lead to a high WAR. In fact, on fielding alone, Gardner was worth 3.7861 WAR. That’s right–assuming 0 runs offensively, using the FanGraphs system–Gardner’s fielding ALONE nearly made him a four win player. Adding in the offense just bumped him up even more.

Offense is basically a bonus at this point with Gardner. So long as he had hit around league average, he would’ve been incredibly valuable for the Bombers. Brett bested average, though. All in all, Gardner hit .277/.383/.379, .358 wOBA, 123 wRC+ while also stealing 47 bases (Morgan stole 42 in 2009).

So, to answer Klaassen’s question, yes, Brett Gardner was 2010′s Nyjer Morgan, only better. Morgan may have had the slight edge defensively, but Gardner out hit him (and had a handful more PAs) and played great defense himself. This will not likely be the norm for Brett moving forward, but that doesn’t make his 2010 season any less special.

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