Over the weekend, Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record compared Yankees second baseman, Robinson Cano, to Boston’s Dustin Pedroia. At one point in the text, Klapisch discusses the two in terms of fielding ability, and concludes that Cano is actually a better second baseman than Pedroia. “In this regard,” he writes, “Pedroia doesn’t come close to Cano – he can’t duplicate his rival’s range to his right and that signature ability to throw to first base while moving in the opposite direction.” However, it seems that Ultimate Zone Rating disagrees with Klapisch.

According to FanGraphs, which Klapisch later uses to discuss offense yet did not use to justify his defensive evaluation (for whatever reason), Robinson Cano’s career UZR is -26.8 and his career UZR per 150 defensive games is -5.4. On the other hand, Dustin Pedroia’s career UZR is +21.7 and his career UZR per 150 defensive games is 7.4. With regards to defense, there is a fairly large gulf, run-wise, between the two, with Pedroia reigning supreme. While I do think that UZR actually underrates Cano – a product, perhaps, of the way in which his “smooth” style of play is perceived, i.e., as not trying hard enough – to say that Pedroia “doesn’t come close to Cano” with a glove is quite a reach. Based on what I have seen, Cano has a better arm and range to his right, but Pedroia, with his speed and instincts, seems to react better and, as a result, can often cover more ground, overall (he was 7.5 range runs above average in 2009, and Cano was 2.5 runs below average). Would most fans agree with that assessment? I think so.

Cano has the potential to improve significantly, and become a better second baseman, but, as of right now, if I were building a defense-first team and were forced to choose between he and Pedroia, I would probably take the latter.

Photo by Reuters

Jonathan Papelbon loves him some Mariano Rivera.

Here’s Papelbon discussing Mariano last month, on Boston’s the Sports Hub:

“Deep down in my heart, I would love to finish my career as a Red Sox. And I think everybody pretty much knows that, but that’s a very, very hard thing to do in this day and age. And the way the game is now, I have to understand that as well. Hopefully it works out to where I can stay here for a while and win World Series and break records in a Red Sox uniform like my buddy Mo [Mariano Rivera] has done over there in [Yankees] pinstripes.”

And here he is today, discussing Mariano again during a press conference in Florida:

Did you watch the postseason after you guys were eliminated?

I didn’t watch a whole, whole lot. I tried to watch guys like [Mariano Rivera] and see what they were doing, try to keep track of it as best as I could. I didn’t watch a whole lot, like I said. But obviously Mo is one of those guys who I’ve idolized in the role, and what he’s done for the role, what he’s done himself as a closer. He’s got five rings. That speaks for itself. Everybody else that’s a closer out there is pretty much chasing him. I think he’s set the tone for what it is to be a closer, and I think he’s bridged that gap, from closers 10 years ago to closers now. He’s been able to do both and to bridge that gap. It’s fun to watch him. It’s fun to see how he goes about it, and it’s fun to kind of compete with him on a level of kind of staying up with him. If you can stay on the same field with him, you’re doing something right.

He’s had his postseason hiccups. Does that make it easier for you to put last year in context?

Of course. I’ve talked to [current Red Sox and former Yankees bullpen coach] Gary Tuck about that a lot. He was obviously with Mo for a greater part of his career. There’s a lot of little nuances that we talk about, from his game to my game. That’s what makes him who he is, and that’s what makes an athlete who they are – how they bounce back. In this game, that’s what’s going to test you to see what you’re made of. I take it all full steam ahead. It doesn’t affect me. I’m not going to take it into this season. My whole goal this season is to start a streak over again, see what happens from there.

Can you imagine pitching into your 40s?

Yeah, I can, but it’s not an easy thing to do. Mo, he just makes it look easy. He makes it look easy. Hopefully I will be able to, but only time will tell.

Like with the Joe Nathan item I posted yesterday at iYankees, it’s always fun to read of the praise heaped onto Mariano Rivera from other closers in baseball. While many of them hope to emulate his remarkable success, it is difficult to see any of them crafting a comparable resume or nearing the “aura” and “mystique” that is an intimate part of his legend. For now, as Papelbon said, everybody else is “pretty much chasing” Mariano, though I wonder if anyone can actually catch him.

Photo by John Munson/The Star-Ledger

According to Frankie Piliere (FanHouse), the Aroldis Chapman Sweepstakes is an expensive one. Therefore, most mid-market teams will bow out of the proceedings, leaving the Red Sox and Yankees to battle it out for Chapman’s prized left arm. The situation seems pretty simple to me if this is the case, though. The Yankees want Chapman and have more money to spend than Boston. Therefore, I think he’ll end up in pinstripes by the end of the year.

He’s rumored to command anywhere between $15-50 million. What do you think? Is he worth it?

Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

Jon Heyman, along with an unnamed agent and general manager, offered a few contract predictions regarding the top 24 free agents for 2010. In the following mini-series, I’ve highlighted some of the more interesting names, including players that the Yankees will likely be interested in, and Yankees that will be granted free agency at the season’s end. The series begins with the top free agents available for 2010: 1) Matt Holiday, 2) Jason Bay, and 3) John Lackey.

Here are the contract predictions, via Jon Heyman, scout, and GM, juxtaposed with my own analysis.

1. Matt Holliday, Cardinals OF. St. Louis is going to try to keep Holliday, one of four big summer pickups who helped the Cardinals run away with the NL Central. The Cardinals are going to hope that he loves being in their baseball-crazed city to the point where he would forego bigger dollars elsewhere (Boston and both New York teams are likely interested). With franchise man Albert Pujols’s contract up in two years and Cy Young candidate Chris Carpenter in a year, the Cardinals don’t figure to be the high bidder. The agent said he believes that Holliday and Bay should each get $2 to $3 million a year less than Teixeira. But the GM said, “Teixeira’s a plus defender, a switch-hitter and slightly younger” than Holliday.

Agent: $147 million, 7 years.

GM: $80 million, 5 years.

Me: $120 million, 7 years.

Holliday is the crown jewel of the upcoming free agent class. Although he had a rough start to his season in the AL, he rebounded while with the A’s and ultimately hit .286/.378/.454 over 93 games. With the Cardinals, he’s sprinting towards the finish-line, as he has hit .363/.415/.659 since his NL return (he has 12 homers with them, too, 1 more then he had with the A’s while playing nearly 50 more games with Oakland). Holliday can hit, he can field, and he has surprising speed (14 SB on the year).

The Yankees will certainly look at him as a left field option in 2010, although with Hal Steinbrenner at the ship’s helm, I wonder if they would be willing to commit the years or dollars predicted by Heyman or the agent. I could see them paying $17 per over 6 years, but 7 might be a deal breaker. Conversely, I think the GM is undervaluing Holliday. If he were available at that price ($16 per over 5), then the Yankees would most definitely ink him to a deal.

2. Jason Bay, Red Sox OF. The Red Sox tried earlier, and Bay has said he loves playing in Boston, a stark change from Pittsburgh.

Agent: $147 million, 7 years.

GM: $60 million, 4 years.

Me: $80 million, 5 years.

I think Jason Bay is being tremendously overrated by the agent. While his offense is a plus, he’ll be 31 at the end of this season, whereas Matt Holliday will be 29 (no one is going to give him 7 years). I think the GM and Heyman have better predictions given Bay’s streaky offensive year. Bay has also been awful, defensively—a trend which began in 2007, after some leg problems—which significantly undermines his offensive value. I think the Yankees may look at him as a secondary option if they do decide to chase Matt Holliday, however, I don’t think they’ll pay top dollar for his poor defense. Heyman probably has the best prediction at $16 million per (he’ll be overpaid if he doesn’t figure out his fielding problems).

3. John Lackey, Angels pitcher. The Angels tried last winter at close to $60 million over four years, but Lackey said he signed a team-friendly deal last time and won’t do it again.

Agent: $75 million, 5 years.

GM: $60 million, 4 years.

Me: $85 million, 5 years.

Holliday, Bay and Lackey will be the biggest names available and, with the Yankees, they’re always in on the bigger names, so I had to discuss Lackey. Now, I don’t see the Yankees going after him—not after they gave a lot of money to CC Sabathia (deserving) and A.J. Burnett (undeserving). Still, Lackey is one of the better pitchers in baseball—he’s totally underrated—and could always become a legitimate option if Andy Pettitte chooses to retire (unlikely) or if the Yankees plan on starting the season with Joba or Hughes in the minors, so that they may continue to build up their innings, etc. (also unlikely). Also, if the Yankees choose to bring back Johnny Damon for left field and opt for the rotating DH idea, they could have money to burn on pitching.

Lackey should command the same $82.5 million that the Yankees gave to Burnett, which is a lot of money, obviously. Frankly, Lackey is a better pitcher than A.J. is, too, and will likely get a few more dollars because of it (Heyman’s $85 million prediction sounds about right). I do think that he’ll wind up on the Red Sox, though, which means you’ll inevitably read a number of reports about Yankee interest over the winter to drive up his price (reports concocted by Lackey’s agent and the Yankees).

These three players—Holliday, Bay and Lackey—stand as the cream of the 2010 free agent crop. You’ll probably hear that the Yankees are interested in all three during the course of the offseason, although one, in particular, seems like a really good fit (i.e., Matt Holliday) given the team’s needs and goals. Tomorrow, I’ll have more on some of the other free agents discussed in Heyman’s piece that could potentially play a part in the Yankees’ 2010 plans. So, stay tuned…

Despite the endless supply of rain, last night’s game was a definite treat. CC Sabathia threw 7 strong innings, striking out 10 ChiSox, in what was a remarkable ballgame. CC was dominant for most of the affair and only gave up 2 ER in the 7th inning (a product of the rain, perhaps). Conversely, the Yankee offense didn’t muster much against Mark Buehrle, plating only 2 runs against the crafty lefty. In the end, in a battle of two very superb lefties, neither was the victor as both team’s had to resort to their respective bullpens for the final innings in what turned out to be a 10-inning game.

However, with a man on first and second in the 10th—surprise, surprise—Robinson Cano hit a walk-off HR to end the game, 5-2. Cano now has 21 HR on the season (19 was his previous season high). Although the Red Sox ended up beating the Blue Jays after another poor outing from Josh Beckett, this win maintains the 6-game lead the Yankees have over Boston. The Yankees can now prepare for the inevitable slugfest that they’ll face tomorrow, when Jose Contreras opposes our friend, Sergio Mitre.

George King (NY Post) notes that the Yankees are interested in the recently released Brad Penny and, according to Buster Olney (ESPN), the Yankees actually claimed Penny on waivers earlier this month, only to see the Sox pull him back. Penny can become a free agent on Monday and is looking to sign with a contender, so the Yankees could make sense. I don’t like him—he’s an NL guy—but he could be had for cheap and would probably put up a better line than Sergio Mitre.

(props to MLBTR)

From George King III (NY Post):

After Burnett was spanked for nine runs and nine hits in five innings Saturday in a 14-1 loss, Posada said the pair weren’t on the same page.

Suggesting Girardi assign Molina to Burnett is dicey since he is 1-0 with a 4.08 ERA in three games with Molina. Burnett is 6-5 with a 4.47 ERA in 16 games with Posada. His best ledger comes with Francisco Cervelli, who is at Triple-A. In two games with the rookie Burnett is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA. And he is 1-2 with a 4.11 ERA in four games throwing to Kevin Cash.

Burnett’s next start is Thursday against the Rangers, a day game after a night tilt. If Posada catches Andy Pettitte Wednesday night Girardi would use Molina Thursday.

I honestly doubt that the Yankees will sit Posada when Burnett pitches in his next outing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Girardi pair Pettitte and Molina, instead, so that Posada can definitely catch Burnett on Thursday. A good outing in Texas would confirm that the two can work well together (I guarantee Posada wants to catch Burnett), although it’s an unnecessary move and would ultimately seem like a public relations ploy rather than a strategic decision (if Jorge is lined up for rest, they should let him rest). Posada has had his ups and downs with Burnett and the biggest issue seems to be Burnett’s performance against Boston, not who he’s pitching to, as those outings have inflated his ERA with Posada. That’s my take, anyway.

What do you think? Should Molina take Posada’s place and become Burnett’s regular catcher? Is that even a practical idea?

CC Sabathia threw 6 2/3 innings last night, giving up 3 ER on 8 hits while capturing his league-leading 15th win. He walked 0 and struck out 8. Although CC labored in the Fenway finale, tossing 118 pitches to Jose Molina, he was hurt by a couple of defensive miscues from Robinson Cano (one can argue that the pop-up error was on Tex for not taking control of the play). Cano’s pair of errors ultimately extended CC’s outing yet the Boston lineup deserves a lot of credit for making him work.

Luckily for Sabathia, the Yankee offense got it going against Sox ace, Josh Beckett, scoring 8 ER off him—5 of which were on HR’s—over 8 IP. Prior to yesterday’s effort, Beckett had been undefeated at home, so the victory was no small task. In the end, the Yankees won, 8-4, as they now hold a commanding 7 1/2 game lead over Boston. The team has also won 7 of its last 10 and can return home on a high note (especially with today’s off-day) as they prepare for their series against Texas.

Below me, Steve has a nice writeup out detailing the struggles between A.J. Burnett and Jorge Posada, struggles which were on display in yesterday’s game against Boston. In terms of Burnett’s pitch selection, Posada and Burnett found it difficult to get on the same page, and the issue seemed to be a contributing factor to Burnett’s 9 ER outing. However, after the game, Burnett stated that Posada “calls fine back there” and that it was a matter of individual execution rather than game-calling. While that’s certainly debatable (with Posada behind the dish, batters have a .751 OPS against Burnett), especially after yesterday’s performance, I think the central problem here is not Posada. He and Burnett are going to experience their share of bumps and bruises as they get to know each other better—that’s a given. Instead, we must look at A.J. Burnett as the main reason A.J. Burnett has failed this season against Boston.

Prior to 2009, Burnett had been dominant against the Red Sox, posting a 2.55 ERA against them. However, this season, Burnett has been awful against the Sawx, allowing 20 ER over 20 1/3 IP as Boston has hit .291 against him. That’s good for an 8.85 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. Burnett’s career ERA against the Sox has ballooned dramatically and now sits at 4.23. At the end of the day, you can’t blame Posada for the shift in fortunes against the Sox, not when Burnett had been so dominant against them beforehand. He should be able to get by and pitch well enough to keep the Yankees in the ballgame, regardless of who the catcher is, however, what we’ve seen in 3 of his 4 BoSox starts has been absolutely dreadful (even in his one good start, he had 6 BB). He looks lost on the mound, which is perplexing.

Why has this happened? Why hasn’t Burnett executed against Boston this season? It’s hard to tell, really, but, instead of blaming Posada, which many may argue that I’ve done before, I think we have to remember that A.J. Burnett is getting his first taste of the Red Sox rivalry. He’s feeling the pressure of pitching at Fenway against our hated opponents and, based on the subsequent results, I would argue that it—the pressure—has ultimately gotten to him.

Before signing with the Yankees, it was rumored that Burnett did not seriously consider offers from Atlanta because he did not wish to be seen as their “ace.” The title seemed to scare him away. Instead, pitching for the Yankees and being just another piece of the pitching puzzle—a puzzle led by CC Sabathia—was thought of as a more attractive option. Last December, I questioned whether or not this was the type of player the Yankees needed—a guy who didn’t want to be the team’s ace and go-to-guy. And, while I think the Yankees have gotten what they paid for from Burnett this season, I think we’re witnessing a pitcher who may not be the same against the Red Sox now that he’s wearing a New York uniform. If you’re not a fan of the spotlight, it’s not the best position to be in and Burnett seems rattled.

Let’s just hope it gets better with time, because, whether he likes it or not, Burnett needs to be “the guy” whenever he faces Boston.

If the Red Sox release John Smoltz, should the Yankees consider signing him?

I know the proposition may sound absurd after Smoltz’s brutal performance in the Bronx just a week ago, however, if he can be had at the pro-rated major league minimum then it seems like Smoltz could be useful. Right now, the Yankees are looking at Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin to help them round out their rotation. Russ Ortiz, Kei Igawa, Josh Towers and Jason Hirsh could also be used to fill-out the pitching staff. Is Smoltz any worse than the guys I just mentioned? His 8.33 ERA would suggest that he is, yet his 4.93 FIP and .390 BABIP—which is bound to regress—may offer a glimmer of hope. His command and his stuff (7.43 K/9) are also pretty good this year, as evidenced by his 3.67 K/BB. In fact, this season, Smoltz has been an excellent pitcher against righties, holding them to a .232 BAA. If he can just figure out how to pitch to lefties in the AL (.444 BAA), then he could be a worthwhile pickup.

Imagine the great storyline the acquisition would bring, as well. That would definitely be something, especially if Smoltz signs and is a better pitcher while with the Yankees. Of course, I’m not saying that he’s worth a contract for that reason. Instead, what I am saying is that given his experience and based on a few of his statistics (i.e., FIP, BABIP, K/9, BB/9), it’s not ridiculous to think that he’ll rebound if given another opportunity to pitch—that’s all, and maybe that opportunity will be in New York.