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Mar 252010

Hey all. How are we on this Thursday afternoon? Please excuse the relatively abbreviated post today, but I had to hand in a big paper yesterday, but was unable to because of a car breakdown. Awesome. Anyway, let’s keep this mini-series rolling and turn the proverbial spotlight to the Left Coast and look at AL West players we should check up on during the 2010 season.

Starting, as usual, with the division winner (Angels), I’m gonna pick Scott Kazmir. Kazmir started off poorly with Tampa in 2009, pitching to a 5.92 ERA with a 1.541 WHIP and a pedestrian 1.82 K/BB. Something clicked for Kazmir when he got to the Angels, though. His ERA dropped below 2 (1.73) and his WHIP improved to 1.046, and his K/BB went up to 2.60. After a few seasons of numbers tailing the wrong way, late 2009 was great for Scott. We’ll see if he can keep it up out there in L.A. or if his slide towards mediocrity will continue.

Texas Ranger RF Nelson Cruz burst onto the scene in 2009, making the All Star Team and ending the year with an .856 OPS and 33 homers. I pick Cruz because he is a late bloomer and it will be interesting to see if he can pull a Jayson Werth and become a big time player in his late 20′s. Like many on his team, Cruz hit worse on the road than at home, though his road IsoP (.246) was still impressive. Due to his age, it’s unlikely that we’ll see much improvement from Nelson, but even if he stays at his 2009 levels, he’ll be a valuable player for the Rangers.

The Mariners plan to win this season by pitching and defense. The best defensive player they have is CF Franklin Gutierrez. This guy is just unreal in CF. When the Yankees played the M’s, I didn’t get excited about any ball hit towards center field because I knew he’d track it down. The metrics (UZR, that is) back this up: his UZR/150 in CF in ’09 was a ridiculous 27.1; his raw UZR was 29.1. Long story short, Gutierrez is epic on defense. His bat caught up a bit last year as he posted a 104 OPS+. So long as he hits at a league average pace and plays defense like he can, he’ll continue to post 4-5 WAR seasons. That glove is mighty valuable.

Lastly, we come to the Oakland A’s. Billy Beane’s boys took the biggest risk/reward ticket this offseason: Ben Sheets. When healthy, Sheets is a top-of-the-league pitcher and will certainly help the A’s young rotation (also watch for Brett Anderson to improve this year) learn a thing or two. Of course, he’ll likely add a few wins to the register as well…if he can stay on the field. If not, then the A’s have a sunken cost and the risk/reward move will not pay off. However, this is the A’s and Billy Beane we’re talking about. If he finds his team out of competition by the break, he could spin Sheets for something valuable. if they’re in contention, Sheets will likely have been a big part of that. While health is always the key factor with pitchers, it’s even more magnified with Sheets.

Jan 262010

According to Yahoo! Sports’ Tim Brown, the Chicago Cubs have signed former Yankee, Xavier Nady, to a one-year deal. He will likely serve as outfield insurance but will also be a right-handed platoon option, spelling Kosuke Fukudome against left-handers.

How does this affect the Yankees’ pursuit of a right-handed bat? Well, the Yankees really wanted Nady, however, he priced himself out of the team’s budget. Jon Heyman says the deal is for $3.3M, but there are an additional $2M in incentives that could be obtained based on games played. If that’s the case, I can see why the Yankees chose to avoid Nady as he could cost over $5M. However, if Nady gets $3.3M guaranteed, there is no way Damon will settle for $2M from the Yankees, especially since Nady and Damon share the same agent in Scott Boras. The Yankees would have to offer at least $5M, plus incentives, in order to keep Damon around.

The good news is that with Nady on board, the Cubbies won’t be re-signing Reed Johnson, making him a bigger target for Brian Cashman to pursue (assuming Damon is too pricey).

In addition to Nady being removed from the free agent market, the Oakland Athletics have signed Ben Sheets to a one-year, $10 million deal. Oakland likely overpaid to get him – $10 million is a lot for a pitcher who hasn’t thrown in a game since 2008 – but it’s a good signing since they had money to spend. This move, like the Nady deal, affects the Yankees’ outfield search in that the A’s may no longer be interested in Johnny Damon. Buster Olney writes that the “Oakland-Damon dialogue is continuing,” even after the addition of Sheets for $10 million, however, it just doesn’t seem like a fit given Oakland’s current roster and spending limitations.

Ben Sheets To Throw For Teams Tuesday

11:49am: Ben Sheets will throw for teams Tuesday at the University of Louisiana at Monroe, reports ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian. Said Sheets: “They’re going to like what they see.” Kurkjian indicates six to ten teams have expressed interest, the Cubs included. Kurkjian believes a one-year deal with incentives is in order. He says to “keep an eye on Seattle,” given Jack Zduriencik’s familiarity with Sheets. The Mariners were first connected to Sheets on December 11th by Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.

Kurkjian talked to Sheets about his year off from baseball, after the righty had flexor tendon surgery in February. Sheets feels “refreshed” and “fantastic,” and seems raring to go. He thinks he can regain his old form, adding “Watch, I’ll show ‘em.”

I wouldn’t expect him to say anything else, given the fact that he’s still on the open market and is selling his services to prospective bidders. But in this case, I believe him. His comments match up with his huge asking price (believed to be around 12 mil) and he’d better look great if he’s going to back up those kinds of salary demands in the current marketplace. The elbow surgery he had wasn’t Tommy John, it was the less serious Flexor Tendon variety, which is the kind that pitchers generally bounce back from well. Yankee fans may remember that top prospect Dellin Betances had the very same procedure last year and Mariano Rivera had it as well when he was in the minor leagues.

Unfortunately, I don’t see the Yanks getting involved in the bidding. They already have an excess of starting pitchers, to the point where Joba, Hughes, Mitre, Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves will all battle for ONE rotation spot this spring. They are said to only have 2 mil left to spend, and have a need to fill in Left Field. I’ve always been a big Ben Sheets fan, and while his injury history is long this is the first time it was anything arm related. I’ll venture a guess that he’s going to have a big season for someone next year. If the Mets were smart (ahem) they’d be very aggressive in pursuing him.

After a ridiculously busy Monday that saw the signing of the top pitcher on the market, a blockbuster 3-team deal, and the news that the Cardinals may offer Matt Holliday an 8-year deal, the hot stove is still burning.  While Boston made some big acquisitions yesterday in the form of John Lackey and Mike Cameron (and might add another bat via free agency or trade), Brian Cashman is not sitting pat.

Ken Rosenthal, via twitter, is reporting that the Yankees are “very interested” in signing RHP Ben Sheets.  Sheets, who missed the entire 2009 season after having surgery, is reportedly seeking as much as 12 million per year, a lot for a player who is coming off surgery, and has not pitched over 200 innings since 2004.  The Yankees would likely hope to offer Sheets a similar contract to that of Rich Harden, another oft-injured righty who can pitch like a front of the rotation starter when healthy.  Harden got a 6.5 million dollar deal with a mutual option for 11.5, for a total of 7.5 million guaranteed over 2 years.  The Yankees will probably offer Sheets a 1 year deal with a base salary in the 6-8 million range, with incentives for starts,  innings pitched, or some other measure of durability that could bring the value of the deal up to the 12 million dollar range that Sheets is demanding.

Sheets is an intriguing buy-low opportunity, and as a guy with great control and the ability to strke batters out (k:bb ratio of almost 4:1 for his career with a career 1.201 WHIP), he could be a nice addition to the Yankee rotation.  If signed, Sheets would likely compete with Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain for the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation, though he may want a guaranteed spot in the rotation as part of the deal.  If he insists on demanding more than a reasonable 1-year deal with incentives and a team option for a 2nd year, then it may be too expensive to justify the risk in signing a guy coming off elbow surgery.  An additional risk that Sheets entails is that he has never pitched in the AL before, but he is certainly talented enough to succeed in the AL East.  Sheets may not want to sign right away according to Rosenthal, so the Yankees may have to wait this one out.

Rosenthal also reports that the Yankees have contacted Jason Bay’s representatives, and may be interested in him.  I can’t imagine Cashman will want to shell out the kind of money for Bay that he appears to be demanding (considering he turned down a 4-year 60+million offer from Boston), considering Bay’s horrendous defense.   However, if Holliday signs with the Cardinals and Bay doesn’t have many suitors left, his price could drop, at which point Cashman and the Yankees might be willing to swoop in.

From what it sounds like, the Yankees are looking for at least another bat and likely a starter as well.  Johnny Damon, who can DH and play left field, is probably still the Yankees’ top choice (though not for a 4-year deal that Boras has reportedly demanded).  Other intriguing DH possibilities could include Nick Johnson, Jack Cust, and Carlos Delgado.  Justin Duchscherer is another pitcher the Yankees may be interested, and he has had success both as a starter and a reliever.  More updates will be posted when we hear them.

-The power has shifted in the AL West race, and fairly dramatically. Cliff Lee going to Seattle and Lackey leaving the Angels for Boston is a big swing in Seattle’s direction. Seattle now boasts arguably the best 1-2 punch in all of Baseball with Lee-Hernandez atop their rotation, and will therefore be extremely dangerous should they make the post season. The Angels are looking at Derek Lowe to replace Lackey (ouch!) and as things stand right now, the ace of their staff is Jered Weaver.

-It’s not as timely after Theo’s shopping spree yesterday, but I still love it when Shaunessy nukes the Red Sox. Here’s the money quote:

Everyone agrees that the Yankees can spend the most money. It was no fun watching New York commit a half billion dollars to messrs.Teixeira, Sabathia and Burnett last winter. But the Red Sox are not a team that can complain about Yankee spending. The Sox are a Have team, not a Have Not team. Boston is not Oakland, Pittsburgh or Kansas City. Through the years the Sox have been able to take players from other teams (Curt Schilling and Victor Martinez come to mind) because they can afford to pay.

They dished out millions for Johnny Damon, Keith Foulke, Daisuke Matsuzaka and J.D. Drew. They raided rosters of the Have Nots. Now they are complaining about Yankee payroll?

It’s absurd. Epstein, like Brian Cashman, can afford to make mistakes. Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo are examples A and B of Theo’s biggest blunders. This year the Sox will pay $18 million to have Lugo and Mike Lowell (trade pending with the Rangers) play for other teams.

Epstein is touting organization prospects named Jose Iglesias, Ryan Kalish, Ryan Westmorland, Casey Kelly and Lars Anderson, but they are a couple of years away. In Boston the message needs to be “win now.’’

And that means “Beat the Yankees.’’

Now.

-While we still don’t have all the details, and I’m still not sure I understand the deal from the Phillies perspective, the best news about yesterday’s Roy Halladay deal is that he is out of the AL East. We no longer have to face him 3-4 times a year, we didn’t have to give up the farm and he didn’t wind up in Boston. This was the best case scenario for the Yankees, given what it would have taken to acquire his services.

-Mike Cameron’s signing with Boston and Hideki Matsui going to Anaheim should increase the chances that Johnny Damon comes back, since Cammy was an obvious backup plan for the Yanks. But then it would also stand to reason that Johnny’s better bargaining position will mean more years and/or dollars from the Yanks. If the budget holds (currently around 180) and Cashman stays true to inching down the payroll this year, that could mean a little less depth on the bench.

-With the reports yesterday that the Yanks are pursuing Ben Sheets, Johnny Damon still unsigned and apparently only enough room on the 2010 payroll for one or the other, it begs a question. If you’re Brian Cashman, and you have to choose between the two, which option would you prefer? Going with Sheets means Melky’s your everyday Left Fielder next year, but it also means you would upgrade your starting rotation AND bullpen, since you could move either Hughes or Joba there. Johnny Damon in Left with Phil Hughes as #5 or Ben Sheets in the rotation, Hughes/Joba in the bullpen and Melky in Left? Which team is better?

-The Red Sox aren’t done yet, not by a long shot. They may have solved their outfield situation with Cammy and bolstered their rotation with Lackey, yet the infield situation is still up in the air with Mike Lowell’s (still unofficial) departure. Which leads me to yet another good read by Lisa Swan, who’s really been making a name for herself in the Yankee blogosphere lately.

Mark Feinsand of the NY Daily News reports that the Yanks are pursuing their starting pitching targets now that the talks between them and Johnny Damon appear to be at a standstill. He writes:

Brian Cashman is looking to add at least one more starter from outside the organization to a rotation that includes CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Pettitte, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Such a move would allow him to move Hughes and/or Chamberlain to the bullpen.

While Cashman continues to monitor the Roy Halladay situation in Toronto, the general manager is looking at a couple of pitchers coming back from arm surgery: Justin Duchscherer and Ben Sheets.

Neither righthander pitched in 2009; Sheets has the longer track record. The Yankees have spoken with Sheets’ agent, Casey Close, but Sheets is looking for $11 million-$12 million after earning $11 million in 2008 – a price the Yankees are unlikely to meet. The Yankees were interested in signing him as a free agent last winter, but they opted to sign Burnett instead. Sheets went 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA in 2008, but there are questions about how he would fare in the American League after pitching his entire career in the NL with the Brewers.

Duchscherer, 32, went 10-8 with a 2.54 ERA in 2008, his first as a starter after four years in the A’s bullpen. He was chosen to the American League All-Star team in 2005 as a reliever, then again in 2008 as a starter. He had elbow surgery during spring training, then battled a bout of clinical depression in August.

A few things to address here. I agree that we could use a starter, having two young and still relatively unproven starters in Hughes and Chamberlain is a risky strategy heading into a season, as we saw in April/May of 2008. Yes, adding a starter would allow them to move either Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes to the bullpen, but that’s assuming everyone else stays healthy. We all know that’s rarely the case with starting pitchers. With Sheets, he’s rarely been able to go wire to wire in any season without something going wrong physically, so the guy you’d be bringing in would be the most likely candidate for a DL stint. If this signing was to come to pass, expect both Joba and Hughes to prepare as starters, and then move to the bullpen on Opening Day assuming everyone’s healthy. If/when someone gets hurt, you have the option of sending them down to AAA to get stretched out, as well as the Chad Gaudins and Sergio Mitre’s of the world.

The longer track record of Ben Sheets makes him far more attractive (and expensive) than Duchscherer, who was a reliever until his breakout season in 2008. Sheets is a power pitcher who walks very few batters (2.0/9IP) and gets his share of Strikeouts (7.6/9IP). Those are numbers that translate anywhere. We know from last winter that Girardi’s a huge fan of Sheets, and his laid back style would fit in well with his fellow starters CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. A reunion with former teammate CC Sabathia would smooth the transition as well, and Sheets may be able to learn something from AJ Burnett. He was an injury-prone power pitcher who’s learned what it takes to stay on the field and has actually become something of a workhorse for the past few seasons.

If anything Duchscherer would be the far bigger question mark in the AL East, who had a slightly higher walk rate (2.2/9IP) and lower Strikeout rate (6.2/9IP) in his one season as a starter. I must admit the clinical depression report bothers me as well. I know that it came while he was on the DL, and was not due to anything performance-related, but New York is a tough place to play. Its a big media town with a rabid fan base coming off a World Series championship. Expectations couldn’t be higher, and Baseball is constantly a game of failure. You need a thick skin to play here even under the best of circumstances. The Yanks are held to a higher standard than any other franchise in this town, perhaps any other franchise in professional sports. We’ve seen far too many players come through here who either couldn’t handle it or just didn’t want to. Character matters, being a Yankee isn’t for everyone, and shouldn’t be.

For me, the clear choice is Sheets. Both pitchers are coming off elbow operations, so that’s a wash. While Duchscherer would likely cost far less, I still don’t view that money as well spent. Too many questions about how he will translate in the AL East. Sheets has the stuff and makeup to pitch in New York and succeed. I would do it even if it meant passing on Johnny Damon and signing a lesser OF like Mike Cameron, or not signing one at all and playing Melky in Left. Pitching wins, and when healthy Ben Sheets is one of the top pitchers in the game.

Dec 102009

Now that's just wrong. Funny, but wrong

Brian kind of looks like Lee Harvey Oswald, doesn’t he? Anyway, a few potential Yankee targets went off the board late last night, and some deals are close that may affect others. Here’s a recap of Wednesday’s events:

-The Rays acquired closer Rafael Soriano from the Braves in exchange for Jesse Chavez, pending medicals. Tampa will assume Soriano’s (estimated 7-8 mil) salary.

-The Texas Rangers signed Rich Harden to a one year, $7.5MM contract that includes an option for 2011.

-On the heels of the Penny and Harden deals, now Ben Sheets is seeking 12 mil per year.

-The Yanks are one of seven teams pursuing Nick Johnson, who would be a very, very intriguing possibility at DH. If he could play any LF whatsoever (only 2 career games) it becomes even more alluring.

-The Angels and Phillies have emerged as the lead horses in the race to acquire Roy Halladay. Philadelphia is said to be offering a package that will include J.A. Happ, plus either Michael Taylor or Domonic Brown. Other reports have them including Cole Hamels. Previous stories that emerged stated that Halladay wouldn’t accept a deal to the west coast AND wants to train near his home in Florida. The Angels spring training facility is located in Tempe Arizona. Sounds to me like Roy is just helping his team out by expanding the numbers of suitors, I’d put my money on a deal to Philly. Philly GM Ruben Amaro walked away from a Halladay deal last year and was a pitcher short of winning the World Series.

-The Red Sox and Texas Rangers moved closer to a deal that would exchange Mike Lowell for Max Ramirez. That would open 3B in Fenway for Adrian Beltre, who the Sox have expressed an interest in. It could also possibly open up 1B (move Youkilis to 3B) for a blockbuster deal for Adrian Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera, though nothing has been rumored yet. Don’t underestimate Theo, he believes in being bold.

Photo courtesy of NoMaas

From Ken Rosenthal:

The Rangers are putting their savings from the Kevin Millwood trade to good use.

Free-agent right-hander Rich Harden is close to signing a one-year contract with the Rangers, according to a major-league source.

The deal, valued at $7.5 million according to published reports, qualifies as one of the biggest surprises of the winter meetings.

With Harden, Penny, and Pavano all coming in around 7-8 million, one would think that Ben Sheets would come in at a similar price. While he may have the highest upside of that group, he is the only one not to have pitched at all in 2009. However, it seems that Sheets is setting his sights higher (from ESPN):

Sheets, whose agent met with the Rangers on Tuesday, is apparently looking for money similar to what he made his last season in the majors — 2008, which was $12 million.

Brian Cashman has said that he has a short list of pitchers that he would like to pursue to deepen the rotation, and I would be shocked if Sheets is not on that list. However, if he really wants 12 million dollars, he is going to be getting it elsewhere. That is a deal way above market, and there are other options available.

Ben Sheets

A recent post by Tyler Kepner in the New York Times Bats blog kicks around the idea that the Yanks could be looking at one of the many high-upside starters available this off season. He writes:

Ben Sheets, Rich Harden and Erik Bedard have all been top-of-the-rotation starters in the recent past. All are free agents coming off seasons marred by injury. Really, the Yankees would have nothing to lose by signing one of them. The price would probably be low enough that the Yankees could afford to outbid other teams, and if they sign someone and he gets hurt again, they are protected with the starters they already (h)ave.

Add Chien Ming Wang’s name to that list. While he may not have the strikeout ability of a Sheets or Harden, he eats up loads of innings and gives up very few HRs when he’s right, among the fewest in Baseball. Playing in the new Yankee Stadium that’s a persuasive selling point in his favor. But a 3rd shoulder injury in his time with the Yanks and the foot fracture that seemed to mess up his delivery (and confidence) are huge negatives. While his last two shoulder problems appear to have been minor, injuries do pile up at some point, especially shoulder injuries. The key to Wang’s effectiveness was always the enormous velocity he was able to throw his 2 seamer. At 95 MPH, he’s very difficult for oppsosing batters. At 90-92 MPH he’s a back of the rotation starter, especially since none of his other offerings are anything special.

Ben Sheets is the one pitcher who really stands out to me on this list. Despite a lengthy injury history, most of them weren’t arm related. Even his most recent elbow injury is considered to be of the less serious variety. When right, he’s a strong #2 starter who would be a potent 1-2 punch with (former Brewer teammate) C.C. Sabathia and move the inconsistent Burnett to a less prominent #3 spot in the rotation to which AJ is better suited. As a #3, his Jeckyl-Hyde nature is easier to swallow and less consequential in the playoffs. When AJ was signed last year, the hope was that Wang would come back strong and AJ would be relied upon less. That’s still the best way to set up our rotation, and is something the Yanks should be actively pursuing this off season.

Another avenue I’d pursue would be to see if Rich Harden would consider a bullpen role as our primary setup man. It’s an area of need for the Yanks, and I’ve always felt that Harden simply doesn’t have the frame (generously listed at 6’1 195 lbs) to hold up the rigors of starting pitching. I don’t expect to get anywhere with this, but it can’t hurt to ask.

It also leads me to another problem with all of these pitchers. They simply may not want to pitch here given the role the Yanks would have available to them. All of these starters would be looking at short, incentive laden deals wherever they land. They’ll want to get an opportunity to prove that they’re healthy so they can garner a longer deal for more guaranteed dollars next year. The Yanks may not be able to offer the one thing that’s most important to them, more important than money for this year, and that’s playing time.

Even as we kick around these possibilities, it’s important to remember that this was Theo Epstien’s strategy last year when he signed Brad Penny and John Smoltz. We all know how that worked out for the Red Sox. Pitchers that get hurt as often as these four have been in recent years tend to get hurt again and/or be ineffective at some point. But I think the Yanks are in a different position than the Sox were last year. Picking up a starter who won’t be ready to start the season will allow the Yanks to get a good look at Hughes and Chamberlain as starters next year, as well as see how their bullpen shakes out. As of now, the bridge to Mariano Rivera consists of Dave Robertson, Brian Bruney and Phil Coke. Sending Hughes to the rotation leaves a chasm in the bullpen that may or may not be filled by internal options. Is Robertson ready? Will Bruney ever figure it out? Is Melancon a realistic option? Having a high upside starter waiting in the wings could give the Yanks the kind of flexibility to go in a few different directions with the players they already have. I’m all for it.

Feb 122009

From Ken Rosenthal (FOX Sports):

Free-agent right-hander Ben Sheets underwent successful surgery on his right elbow Tuesday and is hopeful of returning after the All-Star break, according to a major-league source.

Expect Sheets’ name to pop up again, later in the season…

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