Yesterday, I looked at some of Brian Cashman’s recent trades, specifically what he and the Yankees gave up and whether or not those players would really make a difference. I ended the post with the Brian Bruney trade and now I’m going to start this on with the more major trades of the offseason. Instead of going deal by deal, like I did last night, I’m going to go player by player for today’s post.
Starting with the guy who had the biggest impact on the Major League team, we have outfielder Melky Cabrera, who was shipped to Atlanta in the Javier Vazquez deal. Melky was a nice player, especially on a team like the Yankees. He could play all outfield positions competently–at the very least–and could put up league average numbers at the plate. His switch hitting was also a nice touch. Losing Melky, though, is not the worst thing in the world for the Yankees. In fact, it’s really not a bad thing. Despite his useful skill-set, he is an easily replaceable player. One could, and will/should, argue that the Yankees have already replaced Melky with Randy Winn. Melky’s still young and could develop further, but after over 2000 plate appearances with the Yankees, the only consistent thing from Melky was inconsistency. I wish Melky luck in the National League, but I do not think I will miss him terribly.
Moving to the next Major League player traded, we come to Phil Coke, who went to Detroit in the Granderson deal. He seems like a decent enough guy, and maybe he could develop into something more than he is now, but that’s unlikely. He doesn’t have the pitches to start and his tendency to give up the gopher ball sets him back. In 2010, he would’ve been the second lefty out of the bullpen and his role would likely have been diminished. Guys like Coke are not very hard to find on the open market and we may not notice his departure all that much.
Mike Dunn, another LHP, is kind of in the same category as Coke. He’ll never be a starter, but he does have a tick more upside than Coke, simply because Dunn throws harder. He still has control issues that need to be worked out as well. Dunn’s role on the 2010 Yankees was also in question at the time of his trade. Despite Coke being traded, Dunn was still likely to be only the second lefty out of the bullpen. Again, this is a small role and it will not likely be missed.
Ian Kennedy is another player whose role on the 2010 Yankees would’ve been rather unclarified and muddy. He wouldn’t have had the innings built up to be a starter and likely would’ve been either SP depth in Scranton or a long man in the bullpen. However, the latter role is already crowded. I’m definitely going to miss Ian, though, and of all the players the Yankees traded away in 2010, he’s the one for whom I’m going to root hardest. I feel like he never got a fair shot from the fans and hopefully, he can re-turn some heads in the desert.
Now, we come to the prospects: Austin Jackson and Arodys Vizcaino. In terms of the short term, trading away these two does not do much to harm the Yankees. After all, Jackson needed at least another half a season in Scranton and Viz hasn’t yet pitched in a full season league. Long term, though, it hurts the system a bit. The Yankees are pretty short on position player talent and Jackson fits that bill. Vizcaino is a young, high upside arm and those are always nice to have. These are probably the two biggest losses of the offseason, but like every coin, these have a flip side.
Starting with Jackson, we have a player whose star has lost a bit of its shine as he moves through the minor league ranks. Ajax’s power still hasn’t quite come around and there are still questions about his plate discipline. Maybe I’m being too bearish on Jackson, but I have a feeling that he’ll become nothing more than a solid regular in his career. Now, that’s not a bad thing and it’s obviously something the Yankees would’ve wanted. However, over the next four years, I highly doubt that Austin Jackson the Tiger will be better than Curtis Granderson the Yankee.
Vizcaino is the biggest loss of the offseason. He has the most upside of the players traded and has had great results thus far. But, like I’ve repeated ad nauseum, he’s never pitched in a full season league. That definitely counts against him. There are also pitchers in front of him: Zach McAllister, Manny Banuelos, Ivan Nova, for example.
For what it’s worth, here’s my rankings of these players traded away in terms of impact:
1. A-Viz: High upside arm, but a long way off.
2. Ajax: Medium upside bat, needed more time.
3. Melky: Useful player, but easily replaceable.
4. IPK: Good SP depth, uncertain role.
5. Dunn: Some upside, but likely a LOOGY at the end of the day.
6. Coke: Dunn with a smaller upside.
All in all, Brian Cashman has not given up very much over the last year and a half or so in terms of trades. It’s also wroth discussing what he’s brought in. In guys like Hinske and Hairston, he brought in role players who helped complete a championship team. In Nick Swisher, he bought low on a very solid player, and the same could be said for Curtis Granderson. While losing Austin Jackson was not desirable, the package Detroit took for a solid player like Granderson was one the Yankees had to send off, and the same goes for the deal with Atlanta. We all hate to see young players go, but it’s a part of the game. Brain Cashman has done a good job of trading the right people for the right parts and is one of the finest trading general managers in baseball.
Here’s a notable item that we missed yesterday.
Baseball America released its Top 100 Prospects List and the Yankees were represented by their two young backstops, Jesus Montero (4) and Austin Romine (86). Atlanta’s Jason Heyward topped the list (no surprise there), while a few former Yankees in Arodys Vizcaino (69) and Austin Jackson (76) were also featured. According to BA’s J.J. Cooper, the group is based on what a player’s “ultimate major league ceiling is, weighed against the likelihood that he will reach that ceiling.” The Yankees weren’t as well-represented as the Red Sox, who had four players on the list, but they weren’t the least-represented either (the Cardinals and the D-backs had one apiece).
Photo by Jim Donten
This past off-season, the Yankees said goodbye to a number of players. The biggest name was outfield prospect Austin Jackson and the one who contributed the most to the 2009 was lefty reliever Phil Coke. Both of them ended up in Detroit via the Curtis Granderson trade.
I can’t help but wonder how these two will turn out in 2010. To help me gauge what role these guys will play, I contacted my Tigers source, Mike Rogers of the Tigers’ blog called Bless You Boys. In an email, Mike said this about Jackson:
AJax I think is almost assured to start in CF in Detroit, barring injury
Honestly, I think this is a mistake. This has nothing to do with Mike–since he’s not Jimmy L or Davey D.–but in my humble, non-expert opinion, Jackson needs more seasoning. I wrote a very detailed piece on Jackson back when I was writing for BBD which can be found here. In short, neither his plate discipline nor power still issufficiently developed, considering his high strikeout totals.
I don’t doubt that Jackson could be an average or better Major League regular, but I do doubt that he is ready to do so at the beginning of 2010. Jackson likely needs another half-season in AAA before he’s totally ready to assume an every day starting job.
Speaking of starting, Mike hinted that Phil Coke is likely bound for the bullpen, but could end up being in the rotation since they apparently have two question marks after Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello.
Mike also linked me to this article by Tigers beat writer Jason Beck about Coke potentially being the fifth starter for Detroit. The key quote:
“I think he’ll get the ball with a change to lengthen out in the spring,” Dombrowski said, “and get a chance to compete for the fifth spot.”
While it probably can’t kill the Tigers–or Coke–to try Coke out in the rotation, I don’t think it could last. His problems against righties and his tendency to give up the gopher ball do not bode well for a rotation trip. By the end of 2010, we’ll definitely see Coke back in the bullpen, even if he started at some point.
Regardless of which roles Jackson and Coke end up in during the 2010 season, I think we’ll all be rooting for them (except when they play the Yankees, of course) to succeed. Though we won’t see them reach their peaks in Pinstripes, we tracked their progress up through the minors so we’ll always feel that connection to them. I wish Austin and Phil the best of luck in Detroit.
Via MLBTR comes this piece from Jeremy Sandler of the National Post. In it, Sandler brings us a few tidbits regarding the Blue Jays’ asking price for their 32-year old ace, Roy Halladay. While most of what Sandler has to say isn’t at all surprising—for instance, stating that Toronto desires “young, salary-controlled players” in exchange for Halladay is like saying the sky is blue—one of his assertions is particularly notable in that it details what the Jays want from a trading partner, specifically.
According to Sandler, “[t]he Jays want a major league-ready arm and bat, both young and affordable enough to stay in Toronto a while, plus prospects for Halladay.” Sandler admits that a package of a “major league-ready arm and bat… plus prospects” for a player with only one year left on his contract is a “high price” for any team to pay. The human cost outlined here becomes even more substantial if an extension is also involved. Now, I could see certain teams parting with one or the other, a major league-ready arm or a major league-ready bat, while offering high-end prospects, but I doubt the Jays will get exactly what they want (an arm and a bat, plus prospects), despite Sandler’s claim that “[i]ndustry insiders suggest serious offers in the coming weeks should match Toronto’s wish list.” The Jays’ asking price just seems exorbitant, though you can’t fault them for trying (I’m sure the Twins asked for the same thing when trading Johan Santana).
With regards to the Yankees, I don’t think they could afford Halladay if Sandler is correct (which makes me wonder if he actually is, since most contending teams in need of a pitcher like Halladay won’t be able to meet Toronto’s criteria). Brian Cashman certainly has major league-ready arms to “spare,” with Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, though major league-ready bats seem few and far between unless you believe that Jesus Montero and Austin Jackson are at that stage. According to Jon Heyman (SI), the Jays are said to like Montero, so perhaps they would be willing to take on a package of Joba, Montero, and other prospects, as Montero’s bat is often considered a “sure thing” (i.e., close to major league-ready). Still, as talented as Roy Halladay is, that’s an expensive price to pay for one year of his services (and, if an extension is needed, then the combined cost of a trade and a multimillion dollar contract is enormous).
In my opinion, such a trade could actually create gaping new holes rather than fill those that already exist.
Photo by Getty Images
Here’s a quick nightcap for you:
BA GIVES A-JAX PROPS
Baseball America has named Austin Jackson the 7th best International League prospect in the game (the list features the top-20 IL prospects). The only other position players listed before him were Matt Wieters and Andrew McCutchen, which speaks volumes about Jackson’s talent (he’s rated higher than Cleveland’s Matt LaPorta, as well). That’s another big honor for the Yankees’ young outfielder.
BRONX BOUND: TOWERS AND PETERSON?
Kevin Towers was released by the San Diego Padres earlier this month. Prior to the release, Towers had been the Padres’ GM for 14 years. While there are many organizations that have expressed an interest in Towers since his firing, Buster Olney notes that the Yankees may be the best destination for him. Cashman and Towers are longtime friends and Towers could serve as a talent “evaluator” for Cashman, assisting him with pitching decisions, trade deadline ideas, etc. Olney claims that the odds are “excellent” for Towers to end up working with the Yankees, which would be a good thing for the organization. His expertise would certainly strengthen the team’s scouting system by a significant margin.
Also, while we’re addressing matters of team personnel, according to Jon Heyman, pitching aficionado Rick Peterson, who was fired by the Mets along with Willie Randolph last June, “might have a chance” to become a “pitching coordinator” for the Yankees. Peterson lives in New Jersey and recently offered his take, via video, on the Yankees’ postseason pitching staff for 3P Sports.
RED SOX FAN WITH ALS
Stan Grossfeld of the Boston Globe provides us with this gem about 50-year old Paul Szantyr, a lifelong Red Sox fan who suffers from Lou Gehrig’s Disease. Definitely check it out. It’s a great read.
(props to RAB)
From Chad Jennings, we learn that the Yankees have called up Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena, Mark Melancon, Mike Dunn and Edwar Ramirez. No surprises there. Expect to see Shelley Duncan, Anthony Claggett, Juan Miranda and Brett Gardner get the call later, as well (Austin Jackson remains a possibility, too).
(props to RAB)
From Peter Gammons (ESPN), we learn that the Yankees called the Blue Jays about Roy Halladay and were told that the price for the aging ace would be Phil Hughes and our two best position prospects, Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero. Brian Cashman would never pull the trigger on that deal, though, which is a good thing, and the Blue Jays had to have known that. If this is what J.P. Riccardi was asking for, then you can bet that Toronto had no intention of trading Halladay within the division to begin with.
UPDATE – Earlier tonight Jon Heyman, via Twitter, noted that the Jays wanted Joba, Hughes and two more for Halladay. That’s pretty incredible if they actually thought that they could get such a package from the Yankees. Then, about 45 minutes ago, Heyman tweeted that the Yankees “might—repeat might—consider giving up Joba for Halladay but won’t entertain request of Joba and Hughes.”
My initial reaction is one of outrage, as trading Joba or Hughes is simply nonsensical if you’re in search of pitching depth. However, Heyman’s use of the word “might” is important here. I’m sure the Yankees “might” consider a number of things, whether it’s trading Joba, Hughes or Robinson Cano. Of course, that doesn’t mean that they will actually trade any of them, though. At the end of the day, all that matters is what you will do and I doubt that the Yankees will trade Joba or Hughes for Roy Halladay. In addition, it also makes sense to say that you “might” consider moving Joba, especially if that makes other AL East teams—I’m obviously thinking of the Red Sox, in particular, and the Rays—ante up and offer more.
(props to MLBTR)
After Robinson Cano’s disappointing 2008 season, over the winter months, there was much ado about trading Cano to the Dodgers. Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw were two names that were often thrown around as the Yankees were said to be open to dealing Cano, but would only do so for high-ceiling arms. One name, however, that was also tossed around was Matt Kemp
The Edge dvd , the CF for Joe Torre’s boys in blue (the LA version). Kemp’s 2008 season was decent, as he hit .290/.340/.459 and had a .349 wOBA while exhibiting solid defensive play in the OF. On the other side of the coin, there was talk about him having trouble taking direction from LA’s coaching staff. At the end of the day, despite Kemp’s solid 2007 and volumes of inherent talent, he was still talked about as a trade candidate.
The Dodgers are probably happy that they didn’t move Kemp, as he is definitely delivering on his promise this season. In 2008, Kemp has blown on up on the NL, hitting .316/.380/.489 while swiping 19 bags and swatting 11 homers. His wOBA is .382—third best at his position—and he is worth 4.1 WAR. Meanwhile, his defense in center is phenomenal (14.6 UZR/150). Could the Yankees have had that type of player? Based on the reports, it was certainly possible.
Now, I often criticized trying to trade Cano (and others) for Kemp, as Cano, like Kemp, played a premium position and, in addition, Austin Jackson—the CF of the future—was seemingly on the way. For these reasons, there was no need to trade for Kemp because, in due time, we would have our own great CF who would compliment Cano. In hindsight, although Kemp is now a stud OF (he was always projected to be one), I still agree with this notion as A-Jax is seen as a 5-tool player, even if his power hasn’t developed as much as the Yankees would have liked. He could become a lesser version of Kemp in a few years (the defense and power probably won’t be as good), which is worth the wait. Also, Cano has clearly rebounded this season, putting up a .355 wOBA and he’s 2.2 WAR. If his defense gets better (it’s average) in the second half, we could see his value shoot to the level it was in 2007, when Cano was a 5 WAR player.
The Toxic Avenger movie download Behind Enemy Lines II: Axis of Evil trailer In the end, Kemp would have been a very good player to acquire and he could very well become the best CF in baseball next season, however, at the time, given A-Jax’s presence and Cano’s impending rebound, it wasn’t necessary.
Jesus Montero has hit five home runs over the last 4 days at AA, and seems to be having no trouble with the adjustment to a higher level. Austin Jackson, on the other hand, has some nice rate stats at AAA, but is displaying little power, striking out a ton, and has an insanely high BABIP propping up his batting average. Jim Callis mentioned both players in his recent chat:
rbizzler: Any thoughts on Jesus Montero being promoted to AA and continuing to mash? In your opinion, what should be the Yanks timetable for a position switch as the bat is light years ahead of the D?
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Jim Callis: He’s one of the very best hitters in the entire minors. Though I don’t think he’s going to catch in the big leagues, and he’s not going to displace Mark Teixeira as a first baseman. I guess they could try him in left field, but for now, I’d still be trying to see if I could make him a catcher.
Sam: Does Slade Heathcott have more upside than Austin Jackson?
Jim Callis: Yes.
As Callis states, it has become very clear that Montero has the stick to be a force in the majors. Unlike some minor league hitting phenoms who build a reputation based on power, Montero is noted for his excellent plate discipline and great batting eye. Combine that with strong contact rates and good power, and you have a bat that has a chance to be a star even in left or at first base. I would be very surprised if Montero is not in the top 15 on the major top prospect lists for 2010.
Regarding Jackson, it seems that his star has dimmed a bit in the scouting world. Keith Law recently stated that he does not see star potential in Jackson anymore, and that he profiles as a solid regular. While solid regulars are important to develop and allow the team to spend money elsewhere, that is not the kind of prospect who is untouchable in the right deal. If the club had a major injury and needed to add a middle of the order bat or top of the rotation starter, I would have no qualms trading Jackson for the right piece. It seems that in terms of value, he and Montero are moving in opposite directions.
RJ Anderson at Fangraphs looked at the trio of outfielders that the Yankees have stashed in the minors:
That offensive state of mind exists beyond the pantheon of new Yankee Stadium. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, home to the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate, features a triplet of red-hot bats. Shelley Duncan, Austin Jackson, and John Rodriguez patrol the outfield while on defense, and hit balls into the outfield during their time on offense. The three are inseparable on top of most International League leaderboards. Here’s how they stack up:
Rodriguez: .292/.377/.521
Jackson: .342/.410/.451Buy the Ticket, Take the Ride: Hunter S. Thompson on Film video
Duncan: .294/.369/.628
Jackson is the only one with a foreseeable future in pinstripes, since most prospect analysts rank him as the top prospect in the system. It’s easy to see how, as Jackson plays a smooth centerfield and flashes impressive offensive production for a 22-year-old. Look for him to claim a starting gig in the Bronx sometime over the next 12 months.
Rodriguez and Duncan are journeymen, albeit with some notable history in the majors.
The left-handed Rodriguez collected his major league experience in 2005 and 2006 with the Cardinals. He didn’t hit for a lot of power, and was little more than an average defender in the corner outfield. He did hit righties decently, and was used primarily in a platoon role. Rodriguez was nothing to spill your checkbook over, but teams have become infatuated with players of inferior quality of the years.
Duncan incites brawls, and during his brief major league career hit both lefties and homers. A lumbering man, Duncan’s defensive repertoire is limited to first base, DH, or a corner outfield position. He’s not a full-time player, but again, a team could do a lot worse than Duncan as the right-handed half of a platoon.
With A-Rod having to DH once a week for the foreseeable future, I can see why the Yankees are carrying an extra infielder rather than call one of those three up. Once Xavier Nady returns, these players would be superfluous anyhow, so I am not sure of their value to the Yankees right now. Jackson still needs to work on his abundance of strikeouts and dearth of power, while Rodriguez and Duncan are unlikely to fetch much in a trade. If Nady re-injures himself or gets traded, these players may come into play for the major league club. Otherwise, they are all unlikely to see more than a September call-up.
Regarding the extra infielder that the Yankees are carrying, Cody Ransom will return tomorrow and push either Angel Berroa or Ramiro Pena off the roster. I would be shocked if Pena was the one who goes. On the face of it, the only conceivable reason to keep Berroa is to make sure they do not lose him to another club, a concern that seems silly considering the fact that he stinks. Ransom is probably a better player than Berroa at this point, and is more versatile defensively. At worst, this should give Joe Girardi more options off the bench.
