In a recent piece on MLB.com, Mark Sheldon has a recap of how the Aroldis Chapman sweepstakes went down, with some interesting notes on why the Yanks passed on the 21 year old Cuban fireballer. He writes:
Once Chapman was declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, speculation was that the 21-year-old’s asking price might make big-market, deep-pocketed clubs favorites to acquire Chapman. But that proved to be a wrong assumption.
Many teams, such as the Red Sox and Yankees, were indicating to Hendricks they viewed Chapman as mostly a luxury. Boston, which had recently signed free agent John Lackey, already had a stocked pitching staff. So did the Yankees. Clubs like these viewed Chapman as part of their big league plans — in 2011 or ‘12.
The Reds presented themselves as a younger club that could provide a chance for Chapman to pitch in the Majors in 2010.
“So here’s the metaphor I used when teams expressed concern this would be for just the highest bidder, like New York or Boston,” Hendricks said. “‘If I had a great first baseman from Cuba, do you think I’d call the St. Louis Cardinals first?’ We wanted opportunity. We would like to put him in a system where he’d have an opportunity to emerge sooner.”
So often we assume these deals will come down only to financial considerations, yet as that last quote clearly shows playing time and hope of cracking the starting rotation was a major consideration as well. While Chapman did go to the highest bidder in terms of total dollars, the money is to be paid out over a term of 10 years, so between inflation and currency devaluation an offer of 23-25 mil from another team could have been worth more. There were reports that the Blue Jays and Angels were in that price range. You can easily speculate how this deal went down. Hendricks probably asked the Reds to match the dollars and term of the Jays/Angels offers, telling them he would prefer to go there. When the Reds balked, the two sides hammered out a long deal that spread out the financial impact on the club.
I don’t disagree at all with either the Red Sox or Yanks assessment of Chapman’s future in respect to each of their teams. The reality is he’d have a very hard time cracking the Red Sox rotation, and an even tougher time cracking the Yankee staff in the coming years. As things stand right now, the Yanks have one spot for two pitchers in Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, both of whom are much further along in terms of development than Chapman is. If either Andy Pettitte retires or Javier Vasquez leaves, you still wouldn’t have room on the 2011 team for Chapman, and that assumes that he’s ready to contribute, which is a big assumption. If he was more willing to work out of the bullpen, then the entire equation changes. But Chapman said from Day 1 that he wanted to start, and given how far off he is I never thought it really added up for the Yankees. I wish him well, and it will still be an exciting day when he makes his first big league start for the Reds.
photo courtesy of the NY Daily News
Via MLBTR, from Jeff Passan (Yahoo! Sports) we learn that Aroldis Chapman has signed a 5-year, $30 million deal with an NL Central club. Passan speculates that the Reds, who have never really been linked to Chapman outside of today, might be the team, as Chapman is actually on a flight to Cincinnati as we speak (or at least he was).
If it was going to take $6 million per to sign Chapman, an unproven pitcher, I’m glad the Yankees passed.
UPDATE – The Reds have signed Chapman. Passan has confirmed the deal.
Yesterday, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that, along with the Mets, the Yankees were out of the Aroldis Chapman sweepstakes, with Olney citing a general front office concern as to whether or not Chapman was better suited to serve as a reliever or a starter (spending $20 million or more on an eventual bullpen cog seemed problematic).
The decision to bow out of the market for the prized Cuban southpaw made a certain degree of sense beyond role concerns, as well, as Chapman is far from a polished prospect. He needs to improve upon his overall command, which was fairly poor in Cuba, while bettering the quality of his breaking pitches. For these reasons, according to the Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham, the Yankees believe Chapman must begin his American career in the lower minor leagues, in Single-A ball, but he and his representation seem to disagree. Therefore, despite the talent inherent to his spidery left arm, the Yankees’ decision, while disappointing to some, was certainly understandable. Furthermore, last night, it appeared as though the Angels were nearing a deal for Chapman, so perhaps the hunt was over.
Today, however — there’s always a “however” — we hear from a report that conflicts with Olney’s, for it states that the Yankees could still be in on the Hendricks brothers’ sought after young client. According to Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston, “[c]ontrary to reports that have pegged the Angels and Blue Jays as favorites to sign the 22-year old pitcher, the Red Sox remain very much in the picture, [with] one major league executive predicting that either the Sox or Yankees will sign him.” The executive added, “This one is for the big-money teams,” although I think it’s fair to call the Angels, who are in the top ten for team payroll, a “big-money team,” too. If Boston, a club which offered Chapman a $15 million contract a few weeks ago, prior to his representation switch, is still in the thick of it, I would think that the Yankees, so as to drive up the price for the Red Sox, would at least stay in the race on a superficial level.
So, could we see some sort of surprise Aroldis Chapman signing by the Yankees this week? I definitely wouldn’t count on it, as most recent reports seem to favor the Angels or the Blue Jays and Olney ruled the Bombers out yesterday (he’s generally believable). However, if Gedes’ executive is, indeed, accurate, for those in favor of adding Chapman — and I know there are a number of you — I guess you can view his latest report as a glimmer of hope.
Either way, he’s poised to sign soon, so the speculation will finally conclude.
Photo by the AP
Just came down about two hours ago on his Twitter account. The usually reliable ESPN reporter says that both the Yanks and Mets are both out on the Chapman sweepstakes. Here’s the original message in its entirety:
Sources: The Mets are not in on Aroldis Chapman – just as the Yankees are not in on Aroldis Chapman. One talent evaluator expects the bidding on Chapman to go to $20 million. Concern in some quarters that he is better suited for relief than as a starter.
I’m neither surprised or disappointed at the news. Since seeing him pitch in various international outings (which can be seen on YouTube) and reading reports on him from experts in Cuban Baseball, I came away very much agnostic on Mr Chapman. I detailed my reasons in a prior post from back on December 3rd. He’s clearly a project, one that may take years to become MLB ready, if ever. Further, as the talent evaluator in Olney’s Tweet said he very well may be better suited to be a reliever than starter, which is something that Aroldis has stated he has no interest in doing. There are also reports of him clashing with various coaches in Cuba, making you wonder about his coachability. I know fans will say ‘Its only money, and the Yanks have plenty’ but part of being a well run organization is having a plan and sticking to it. If he’s a disruptive force (as was reported in Cuba) then it can impact other prospects as well. Assuming this report is accurate, and Buster is one of the best when it comes to knowing what Brian Cashman is thinking, I have no problem with the Yanks sitting this one out.
A variety of news in recent days regarding some potential and former Yanks, so I decided to put it all in one handy-dandy post for all you fine folks. Here goes:
Randy Johnson to retire-Start the countdown to 1st ballot Hall of Fame induction. He wasn’t the most charming fellow that’s passed through here, and his time as a Yankee was disappointing all around. But he played his ass off for us. Never begged out of a start despite nagging chronic back pain. Anyone who takes an epidural to make a playoff start is someone I’ll never say a bad word about. Check out Tyler Kepner’s ‘appreciation’ piece on the Big Unit.
Eric Hinske signs with Braves-The King of Queens body double has found yet another home for himself, this time with Atlanta. This will be his 6th team in the past 4 years. This of course means that the 10′ Braves will be in the World Series (07 Red Sox/08 Rays/09 Yanks).
Jason Giambi likely to return to Rockies-The infamous golden thong wearer has garnered little interest as a free agent this off season, so it appears likely he will return to Colorado, who has expressed a desire to bring him back for 2010.
Shelly Duncan signs with Indians-Girardi will have to find a new henchman to do his dirty work for him. How cool would it be if Jonny Gomes ends up with the Tribe as well?
In other news, Aroldis Chapman appears ready to make a decision within the next few days. The Angels, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Marlins all appear to be in hot pursuit, but don’t count out the Yanks. This is a classic case where they’ll stay quiet, allow the market to set itself and swoop in with a last minute offer. That is, if they liked what they saw enough to give him 20-25 mil, which appears to be what it will take to land him.
Finally, for those of you still lighting candles for Johnny Damon, Brian Cashman was quoted by Pete Caldera of the Bergen Record saying “Our team is set” and “We have a left fielder. We do like Brett Gardner”. He’s just looking for bench players at this point.
Yesterday, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal wrote about the future of Cuban import, Aroldis Chapman, stating that it would not be surprising if a “low-revenue” (e.g. Marlins, A’s) organization rather than a big money club (e.g., Yankees, Red Sox, Angels) ultimately inked the desired left-hander to a deal. Rosenthal claims that “the Yankees and Red Sox, in the newest phase of their blood rivalry, want efficient players at efficient prices,” and, for that reason, may avoid Chapman, who was “not an efficient pitcher in Cuba” and “will not come at an efficient price.” A few days ago, Jorge Arangure Jr. speculated that Chapman could receive $25 million given the recent groundswell of interest following his successful Houston showcase. Still, despite the price, Rosenthal picks the Marlins as the likeliest to sign the young southpaw.
While the Marlins reportedly have extra resources in hand to divert to Chapman and have already provided him with a multiyear offer “in the $13 million range,” I cannot see the Yankees failing to capture the talented Cuban prospect due to his cost. Now, I agree with Rosenthal’s assessment of the Yankees’ approach as of late — their offseason, thus far, has yielded a series of financially efficient acquisitions, as the average annual cost of players acquired has been relatively low — however, I disagree in his application of this assessment to a high-upside, long-term investment like Aroldis Chapman. The Yankees, as seen in the draft, for instance, have demonstrated that they are more than willing to take a gamble on talented young arms and Chapman, outside of his price tag and unrestricted free agent situation, is really no different. Despite the lanky lefty’s “inefficient” production in Cuba and “inefficient” cost, with regards to Yankee personnel, I’m sure they see the potential value in signing such a player and, in the end, will fight for him.
Photo by Reuters
As I mentioned on Sunday, Tuesday was a big day for Aroldis Chapman. He had a workout scheduled in front of an impressive list of many prospective suitors, and Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports that all went well. He writes:
For the dozens of baseball men wondering whether Aroldis Chapman’s official unveiling was worth the trip, the left-hander had an emphatic, 97-mph answer with his final pitch.
Sure was.
Executives and scouts came out of Tuesday’s 30-or-so-pitch bullpen session in Houston raving about the 21-year-old who defected from Cuba in July and will command big dollars on the free-agent market.
Just how much money depends on how Chapman’s new agents, Randy and Alan Hendricks, can intensify the bidding. At least 15 teams had officials at the workout, according to two sources who were present, and everyone came away impressed that the 6-foot-4 Chapman sat around 93 mph with his fastball despite not throwing with maximum effort and ramped up with his last throw.
This is a good first step, but I’d advise a word of caution. There was no umpire reported to be behind the plate, no batters in the batters box. He still hasn’t faced any live batters in the states, and the level of competition he faced in the international events was generally considered to be fairly low. This was just a bullpen session, and we see MLB pitchers look great in bullpen warm ups who go out and get clobbered all the time. All that this really tells us that he’s not hurt and that the raw skills are still there, but little else. He may still have much to learn about pitching, holding runners, fielding his position and the issues surrounding his control and make-up in real game situations have yet to be answered. Even if he signed tomorrow, expect him to be sent to the minors and work his way up. But so far, so good. He passed the first test with flying colors.
At the same time, I don’t want to sound like I’m pouring cold water on him. His upside is enormous, he may possess once in a generation type talent. Ed Price from MLB Fanhouse leaves us with this tantalizing quote:
With a high waist, lean body and long arms, Chapman has a unique look, the person said.
“Usually guys throw 10 pitches,” he said, “and you say, ‘He reminds me of …’ But there was none of that.”
In other words, he is a very unique talent. If his body type and/or delivery provides some deception, his high 90’s heat gets even more difficult to square up for opposing hitters. The numbers being thrown around currently (15 mil) may sound high for someone who is roughly at Draft pick status, but they are for 5 year deals. That obviously breaks down to 3 mil per, and the Yanks probably have that in the seat cushions of their corporate limos. Also, draft picks aren’t exposed to a free market, they are forced to negotiate with a single team. Multiple teams bidding gives you a truer sense of what the market will bear for his services. Imagine what Steven Strasburg would have received if all 30 teams could have bid in him.
I fully support a big push to sign him, I consider him as a fine replacement for the lost 08 Gerrit Cole pick. I just think fans should be patient on his ETA, wherever he lands.
According to Jorge Arangure (ESPN), “it’s quite possible Aroldis Chapman might not get more than $20 million. Perhaps not even that much.” Arangure’s latest tweet is in congruence with what I said over the weekend, at iYankees, after Noel Arguelles only received $7M from the Royals over 5 years. The Yankees will easily win the bidding for the lefty if this is the case.
. . and the questions go beyond his stuff. Melissa Segura of Sports Illustrated wrote a terrific piece recently delving deeply into his background. She does a terrific job of recounting his life story and analyzing how he might translate in MLB competition. She starts at his first botched attempt to leave Cuba, and then the events leading up to his successful defection. There’s a lot to be concerned about for prospective bidders, which confirms what I saw from his outings facing international competition. I’m no scout, but he appeared to me to be a major project who would be years away from MLB competition, if ever. She writes:
This time he knew better than to breathe a word of his plan to anyone, including his pregnant girlfriend, who rested beside him for what could be the last time in a long time.
“What would you do,” he asked her, “if I didn’t come back?”
Raidelmis Mendosa Santiestelas‘ hands circled the baby in her belly.
“Stop talking nonsense,” she said.
Days later, Ashanti Brianna Chapman was born, but Aroldis was already gone from Holguín. For good.
I’ll leave it up to the reader to pass their own judgments on someone who’s days away from becoming a father for the first time who has defection on his mind. Defecting from a Communist country like Cuba is something you may not get many chances to do, and pitchers can get hurt and lose their value. Cuban Baseball has been notorious for burning out guys with golden arms at young ages. But as you’ll see from accounts by many of those who’ve worked with him, his maturity level is seriously in question.
Next up were the events leading up to him being left off the Bejing Olympic team in 2008. Chapman recounted how he was summoned to meet with Raul Chavez after his his first botched attempt to defect, and says the Cuban President suspended him from the team. But others close to the situation have a different account:
Chapman says authorities removed him from the Olympic team in reprisal. “They didn’t take me [to Beijing] because they said they weren’t certain that I would return,” Chapman says.
Others are not so sure that is the real reason. Dr. Peter Bjarkman, a foremost Cuban baseball scholar and chronicler, suggests that Chapman has reframed his Olympic exclusion as a punishment, rather than a performance-based roster cut. Bjarkman writes that the June 2008 Jose Huelga Tournament in Havana is when Chapman “pitched himself off” the Olympic team as he “displayed little control and less confidence, being knocked out early in his final appearance versus tame Puerto Rico by his own extreme wildness.”
On to his stuff-
In his four years in the National Series, he had a 24-21 record with a 3.72 ERA. Almost as notable as his 379 strikeouts in 341 2/3 innings are his 210 walks. His career bases on balls per nine innings is 5.37, a stat that would rank him last – below Arizona’s Daniel Cabrera (5.24) and Milwaukee’s Seth McClung (5.31) — among the 245 major league pitchers who have thrown at least 341 career innings. And that’s calculated without adjusting for a softer strike zone and freer swingers in the Cuban league. “In Cuba you knew you could throw a bad pitch and a batter would swing at it,” Chapman admits. “In the big leagues, that doesn’t happen very often.”
Earlier this week, I posted the following comment regarding Aroldis Chapman:
I don’t think that he is worth 15 million let alone 50 million.
What do we know about him?
1. He pitched in Cuba for a few years. Our best guess on the level of competition between Cuba and low-level international competition is A+/AA.
2. He has erratic, but great, velocity on his fastball. Sometimes he’ll throw 90, sometimes he’ll throw 100.
3. He has terrible control.That doesn’t sound like Matsuzaka to me, who was one of Japan’s (higher level of competition, most good Japanese players went straight to the majors. Most Cuban players had a tougher transition) best pitchers, and in his prime.
Chapman should be treated like a high first round high school pick, but a little older. Let the Red Sox spend their money – I’d rather they spend it on a wild lefty with no track record than John Lackey.
After some reflection, I believe that I was wrong.
I still believe that Aroldis Chapman should be considered a prospect. He is young, inexperienced, and raw. He also has tremendous stuff and potential. Fans looking to place him directly into the MLB would be disappointed.
But that said, he is still worth 15-20 million on the open market. Think about it this way: were Chapman eligible for the draft, where would he be drafted? Based on his stuff, there is no way he would not be a top-5 pick, even without any college experience. These players often command 5 million dollars or more for their signing bonuses when teams have exclusive negotiating rights and benefits of the slotting system. Its hard to see them commanding less than 10 million on the open market.
Stephen Strausberg is a better prospect than Chapman, but imagine what we would have gotten had all 30 teams been allowed to bid on his services? I’d say he could have commanded 30 million. 15-20 million is a relatively small bet to make for potential production that could be worth 100 million dollars or more.
So yeah, I think he’s worth it. Go get him Cash.
