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Nick Swisher's UZR: A battle between good (range) and evil (arm)

Posted by Chris H. at 3:00 pm 10 Responses »
Mar 022010

Last season, with regards to defense, Nick Swisher was worth 0.8 runs below average in right field, according to his Ultimate Zone Rating. This mark would actually surprise many Yankee fans, particularly those who are not defensive metric wonks, as there seemed to be a prevailing perception in such circles that Swisher was an awful outfielder. Statistically speaking though, that was far from the truth a season ago and has never really been true historically. Over the course of his career, from Oakland to Chicago, Swisher has been a consistently average corner outfield defender with shades of above averageness. Despite a few strange routes to fly balls that birthed a sense of a fielding ineptitude, 2009 was not a deviation from that assessment. All in all, he was really a decent outfielder.

With that cleared up, digging a bit deeper into Swisher’s UZR, so as to better understand the number’s meaning, I turn to a Swisher UZR Chart – you can read my writeup on UZR Charts here – that illustrates the three components of FanGraphs’ Ultimate Zone Ratings (for outfielders), range runs (RngR), arm runs (ARM), and error runs (ErrR).

As you can see from the chart, in 2009, Swisher’s biggest strength was his range (blue bar), at 4.3 runs above average, the fifth best rating amongst right fielders in either league, yet it was entirely negated by his foremost flaw, his arm (green bar). Swisher’s arm value, pegged at 4.6 runs below average – almost half a win – was the worst mark in the American League and the third worst in baseball (only Brad Hawpe and Andre Ethier were worse). He and Johnny Damon, who was 4.2 runs below average, were very similar in terms of arm awfulness (now that’s saying something). Swisher’s UZR (red bar) of -0.8 is, essentially, a measure of conflict between range runs and arm runs.

From what we saw last season, earlier in the year, Swisher often threw balls in recklessly, which resulted in errant overthrows. His arm strength seemed average, with accuracy being the main issue. He and the Yankees recognized the problem, and worked to resolve it in the latter half of the season. Though I am not privy to any month-by-month UZR figures – I don’t know if those exist, actually – speaking subjectively, Swisher’s throwing noticeably improved as the year wore on. Hopefully the improvements made will carry over into the upcoming regular season. If they do, then Swisher has a chance to be referred to as one of the best right fielders in the game (this notion is based not only on last year’s UZR data, but on the previous years, as well). It might sound like a stretch, but it is possible (he’s close).

His range is definitely there, and the pendulum doesn’t swing very far in either direction, good or bad, with regards to error runs (yellow bar), so, correcting the arm runs issue will be his biggest defensive challenge in 2010.

Note – Swisher’s UZR on FanGraphs actually reads as -0.7, however, when you add his RngR, ARM, and ErrR, you get -0.8. I figured it was just a rounding issue, but to preclude confusion, I discuss it as -0.8, not -0.7. I only do this because it is but a fraction of a run.

Photo by Reuters

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Gardner's speed can even beat UZR

Posted by Chris H. at 7:00 pm 9 Responses »
Feb 052010

When many discuss Brett Gardner’s value, they are quick to point to his defense, citing UZR as well as UZR/150 to outline his tremendous glove. For instance, in 2009, over 99 games, Gardner’s 7.4 UZR and 15.4 UZR/150 were two of the best marks in the American League. However, while there is an apparent sample size issue with regards to Gardner’s rating, I think another aspect we should look to examine further is Gardner’s interesting arm rating.

Last season, a significant chunk of Gardner’s UZR was derived from arm runs. He was worth 3.0 outfield arm runs above average, which was, in fact, one of the best numbers in baseball relative to his position in center field. This was no fluke either, as Gardner’s arm in ’08, between left and center field, was worth 4.9 outfield arm runs above average. Now, most people assume Gardner’s great UZR is predicated upon range and, while that is true, he does have good range – over the past two seasons, he has been valued at 12.2 range runs above average, which is another top-rated number among all outfielders – many Yankees fans would be surprised to know that Gardner’s arm is such a contributing factor – 7.9 arm runs over the past two years – to his overall defensive value, according to UZR.

The added wrinkle here, however, is that Gardner’s arm is not actually as good as UZR perceives it to be. Though Gardner has a fairly accurate arm, I think – based on what we have seen with our own eyes over the past two seasons – it is safe to say that his arm strength is nowhere near a Melky Cabrera, or even a Nick Swisher, who has a stronger arm but is not very accurate with his throws. Gardner’s arm rating, then, is founded upon arm accuracy but is inflated by his speed. Basically, Gardner’s wheels allow him to get to balls quicker than expected. This, then, allows him to gun down runners who wish to challenge him on the basepaths, because of his seemingly weak throwing arm. So, while Gardner’s arm rating is very good, the measure is also very generous as it is furthered by a non-arm factor.

As a result, Gardner’s UZR and UZR/150 are also somewhat aerated. If the 26-year old is given the opportunity to play a full season in 2010, I would guess that his arm rating will decrease as runners will grow more aware of his great speed, forcing them to limit their attempts to stretch out base hits. Thus, Gardner’s UZR figures will also go down (of course, I am drawing upon small samples, so perhaps we will see something entirely different). The reason I write this is to temper defensive expectations for Gardner, especially if he patrols center field. While he is a good defensive player – that much is clear – his defensive ratings could come down to earth a bit in 2010.

Photo by Reuters

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Swisher learning

Posted by Chris H. at 1:30 pm No Responses »
Aug 292009

Here’s Bryan Hoch (MLB) on Nick Swisher’s defense:

Swisher has had a mixed bag of results in the outfield this season with the Yankees, turning in some splendid defensive plays along with a few bloopers — missed diving catches and air-mailed throws to the screen behind home plate among them.

Swisher said the sharp toss home to catcher Jose Molina, picked clean and applied to the sliding Castro, was no fluke.

“I’ve really been trying to concentrate on the defensive end of things,” Swisher said. “I don’t like coming out of games, and early in the season, it happened late in games that I would get a defensive replacement. I’ve really been trying to take a lot of pride in the defensive end so I can stay out there for all nine.”

Swisher said that he has been scoring a little guidance on the topic from a pair of sources that might be less-than-expected — the Yankees’ pitching coach and one of the team’s two left-handed relievers.

“Dave Eiland has been on me, saying, ‘You’ve got a lot more in the tank,’” Swisher said. “I did a couple of things mechanically, and Phil Coke has helped me out a little bit. I just feel like I’m getting on top of the ball a little better. My ball is staying more straight and not tailing or cutting. In general, it’s helped out a lot.”

Based on his UZR, Swisher’s defense has improved considerably (his range is rated 5.9) despite making everything look like an adventure when in RF. He is right, however, to work on his throwing since it’s been the worst part of his defensive game. Swisher’s arm is rated 4.6 runs below average–the worst RF rating in the American League—and Yankee fans are used to his errant throws by now. Hopefully, with help from the staff, he’ll continue to get better. He looked pretty good in last night’s game.

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