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Mussina vs. Pettitte

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 12 Responses »
Feb 072011

Nary a day goes by in the baseball world does a day pass without two people discussing which of their favorite players was better than the other. Our daily baseball ritual includes this process, especially now during the Hot Stove season. We start with a gut reaction, a quick thought that we post on a forum or we Tweet it. Then we have that moment of panic…”What if that statement was way off base?” So, to make sure we’re not wrong, we whip open new tabs to accommodate Baseball Reference, Fan Graphs, or various pitch f/x sites. We come to our conclusion and either back off the statement, try to pretend no one saw it, or, hopefully, rub the fact that we were so right in the faces of other commenters or our followers. We do this same song and dance when it comes time to debate the Hall of Fame credentials of one player over another or when two similar players retire at or around the same time. For this article, as you can tell from the title, we’re going to be doing the latter, featuring Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte.

Mussina started his career (1991) four years earlier than Pettitte (1995), but their careers overlap greatly. What helps is that they faced essentially similar competition since both of them were in the A.L. East for the duration of their careers (minus Pettitte’s three year stint in Houston). This is something that makes comparing them much easier. But why now? Well, the easy answer is that Pettitte just retired and Mussina retired after 2008. They’re both fan favorite pitchers who happened to be very good at throwing a baseball and getting batters to make outs because of it. The other reason? Someone from East Coast Sports Fans forwarded Moshe the debate as it was unfolding and asked our opinion on the matter. Moshe asked me to write it up, so here it goes…

Both pitchers were paragons of durability. Mussina pitched a remarkable 18 years in Major League Baseball while Pettitte racked up a similarly long career, pitching in 16 big league seasons. Both pitchers had just one year in which they threw under 100 innings–Mussina’s debut in 1991 in which he threw 87.2 innings and Pettitte’s 2004 in which he threw 83 innings. Per 162 games, each pitcher averaged over 200 innings: 215 for Pettitte and 226 for Mussina. We’re dealing with two pitchers who were healthy and effective for many years.

Sticking with our per 162 games average, let’s take a look at two of my favorite pitchers side by side:

Mussina: 34 G, 226 IP, 219 H, 99 R, 92 ER, 24 HR, 50 BB, 178 SO, 1.192 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 3.58 K/BB, 3.68 ERA, 123 ERA+, 3.57 FIP.

Pettitte: 34 G, 215 IP, 224 H, 103 R, 93 ER, 18 HR, 68 BB, 158 SO, 1.357 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 2.34 K/BB, 3.88 ERA, 117 ERA+, 3.75 FIP.

Oh my word. Are there two pitchers more evenly matched than Pettitte and Mussina? Their ERA and FIP differences are minuscule and Mussina’s edge in ERA+ is just six points. He has a slight edge everywhere else, except Pettitte did a better job of keeping the ball in the park…but just barely. The biggest advantages we see are Moose’s respective edges in WHIP, strikeouts, and K/BB. Let’s see if we can dig a little deeper and get anything out of this.

Here’s their batting lines against:

Mussina: .255/.297/.399/.696
Pettitte: .270/.326/.398/.724

We see the gap grow in Moose’s favor a bit here, but that stems from his slightly lower BB/9. Pettitte does have the lower SLGA, which is a result of his slightly lower HR/9. For the sake of context, the 2010 AL average OPS was .734.

We’re coming up with advantage Mussina over and over again here, but let’s see if there’s something else we can do. This is something that we discuss a lot when we talk about MVP voting: peak vs. longevity. We’ve essentially already covered longevity. Both had very long careers and Mussina’s got a slight edge in just about everything. But, consider this a final not on longevity and effectiveness.

The one thing every fan, writer, and analyst alike said when reminiscing about Andy Pettitte over the last few days was his incredible consistency. Only once did Andy end a season with an ERA+ under 100: 2008 when he finished with an ERA+ of 98. Mussina had three such seasons towards the end of his career: 98 in 2004; 96 in 2005; and 88 in 2007. This is definitely something that could start to tip the balance back towards Andy; he had fewer seasons of below average pitching. But, of course, that’s only one side of the coin. Let’s look at peak/career bests and see what we come up with.

Pettitte’s high in ERA+ was 177 in 2005. Mussina never beat that; his career high was 164 in 1994. Pettitte’s peak, though, is hard to nail down because of his consistency. He never had any wild dips and climbs in his ERA+ numbers. Moose’s peak is a little easier to nail down. 1994-2001 were the best years of his career and in that stretch he had a 132 ERA+. Because of how level Pettitte’s career was, it’s almost as if the whole career was a long, extended, even plateau. When we set a different bar, perhaps seasons of 120 ERA+ or higher, we could see something different. Pettitte cleared this rather arbitrary bar four times. Mussina cleared it 12 times. In terms of staying above league average, we saw Pettitte beating Mussina there. However, in terms of exceeding a higher level of performance, Mussina gets the easy win.

Andy Pettitte’s career was so consistent (yes this word has been used a lot but there’s no getting around it) that there wasn’t a period of extended dominance and it didn’t feature a lot of great years. Mussina had more of a decline at the end than Pettitte did, but Mussina made up for that with many more better-than-just-good years than Pettitte. What’s another way we can flesh this out? Let’s look at everyone’s favorite vaguely controversial stat: WAR.

In terms of fWAR, based in FIP, Andy Pettitte racked up 66.9 WAR. Mussina tallied 85.6 WAR. That’s an 18.7 fWAR advantage in Mussina’s favor. Shifting to bWAR, based on RA, Pettitte managed 50.2 bWAR, or 3.9 per 162 games. Mussina was worth 74.8 bWAR, or 5.2 per 162 games. These advantages for Mussina aren’t huge, but they’re not insignificant. If we hearken back to our ERA+ examination from before, we see similar results. Mussina never reached Pettitte’s career high in bWAR (7.6), but Pettitte cleared 5.0 bWAR just three times, while Mussina racked up 5.0 bWAR or more seven times. fWAR gives a repeat: Mussina never reached Pettitte’s best (7.4), but he cleared the 5.0+ fWAR more times (11) than Pettitte (4). We’re seeing the pendulum swing toward Mr. Moose here.

Part of the query Moshe received was a look at the big-game performances, the playoffs. Long ago, I looked at Andy in the Playoffs, so I’ll just rehash it here: despite some great playoff performances with some stinkers in there, Andy’s playoff numbers look exactly like a normal regular Andy Pettitte season.

Mike Mussina had “only” 139.2 innings pitched in the playoffs, compared to Andy’s 263. And, surprise, they look a lot like one of his regular seasons. He had a 3.42 ERA, a 1.103 WHIP, and a 2.1 BB/9. He gave up a few more homers than normal (1.2 HR/9) but also struck out more guys (9.3 K/9) and had a better K/BB (4.39) in the postseason. On raw numbers in the playoffs, like in the regular season, Mike Mussina’s got an edge over Andy Pettitte. Pettitte gets more credit for being a playoff performer because he played for five World Series winning teams, whereas Mussina never got that elusive ring. That doesn’t mean, though, that Mussina was a worse playoff performer because of it.

Running through this exercise was more than enjoyable. If I had to pick today, Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina would be my two favorite pitchers ever, and easily my favorite pitchers I’ve seen in pinstripes. Looking back on their wonderful careers and letting my memory jog was a treat. Now that I’ve come to the end, I have to decide on which pitcher was better. I’m tempted to stay sitting on the fence, refusing to choose between a favorite righty and a favorite lefty, but as Mr. Colbert would say “Choose a side; we’re at war!” My side? Mike Mussina. His regular season numbers were better, even if just slightly, and the same goes for his playoff numbers. Over the course of each player’s wonderful and wonderfully long career, Mussina was worth more by both WAR systems, and had more impressive individual seasons than Pettitte did (even if Pettitte didn’t have as big a decline and was the definition of consistency for 16 years). You’re all smart enough to know this, but I’m saying it anyway: this decision, in no way, means I think Andy Pettitte wasn’t a great pitcher for a long time. He certainly was and there’s little debate about this. The only thing I’m saying is that Mike Mussina was a better pitcher than Andy Pettitte. The list of pitchers who weren’t as good as Mike Mussina is definitely a long list and there is no shame in being on it, especially if you’ve had a career like Andy Pettitte had.

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Should the Yanks retire #46?

Posted by Steve S. at 9:00 am 8 Responses »
Feb 062011

(Authors Note: I haven’t ditched the 5 part ‘Assessing Brian Cashman’ series. I’ll return to it on Monday)

Let me say up front I think its rather excessive how many numbers the Yanks have already retired. I’ve weighed in on the topic here in the past, so I’ll simply recap my thoughts quickly to set the stage for this piece. Just because a player is beloved doesn’t mean the team should retire their number. The Yanks assemble teams loaded with great players all the time, there has to be a more objective, team-related standard to apply for what is a team related honor. Placing highly in major categories on the franchise leader boards is a good place to start. For instance, as storied as Reggie Jackson’s run with the Yankees was, including 4 post season visits 3 AL pennants and 2 WS titles, Mr October only played 5 seasons with the Yanks. He’s 6th on the Yankee list in SLG, but 29th in HRs and 43rd in RBIs. Its difficult for me to imagine retiring Reggies number and not that of, say Charlie Keller (18th in HRs, 22nd in RBIs, 8th in SLG, 6 WS rings) or hall of famer Red Ruffing (ace of  7 WS champs and #2 on franchise list in Wins) As beloved as Phil Rizzuto was as an announcer, he wasn’t a great player. You want to retire his microphone for the Yankee museum? Fine. His number as a player? No.

Popularity with the fans is certainly a consideration, despite as seriously as us hard core fans may take the game, it is after all the entertainment business. But retiring a number forever has to go beyond mere popularity. Sal Fasano was a fan fave a few years ago, if the Yanks retire #26 for Sal’s Pals, I just might have to find myself a new hobby.  But I digress. I can understand wanting to recognize historic achievements such as Elston Howard being the first African-American Yankee, or Roger Maris’ magic 1961 campaign. I can understand wanting to recognize the ‘face of the franchise’ from a great era. Don Mattingly was certainly the face of the team from 1984-1995, but it wasn’t a great Yankee era and nobody could argue he was a better overall player than HOF teammate Dave Winfield. Nobody loved Billy Martin more than I did as a kid, but I’ve yet to hear a cogent argument as to why his #1 is retired along side Casey Stengels #37. At best, we seem to have a haphazard standard being applied in these matters. During the momentary love affair we all have with our favorite players, we should caution ourselves to remember that retiring a number is forever. When a kid who’s born today looks at the retired numbers 20 years from now, in the context of the franchise numbers as a whole (and at the time of retirement) will it still make sense? In some prospective cases yes (Derek Jeter) in others (Paul O’Niell) clearly no.

On to Andy. We all know was beloved by most Yankee fans, myself included. He was a rock solid, if unspectacular pitcher on many winning Yankee teams for 13 seasons. He was only considered the ace of his staff one year (1996) and perhaps the forgettable 2008 season as well (though Moose had a big year). As far as the franchise lists go, I’ll run through all the major categories. Andy is #3 in Wins behind only HOFers Whitey Ford and Red Ruffing. He is 44th in ERA. #2 in Games started, #4 in IP. But its the MLB all time post season numbers that argue strongest for Andy.  He is #1 all time in Postseason Wins (19) Games Started (42) and IP (263). From a SABR standpoint, that mostly tells us he a good pitcher who had more opportunities than anyone else, but from the perspective of the Yankee brass, that reflects roughly two decades of winning baseball, which is something they will want to tout loudly to fans and the world.

So lets total this up. I’ll use a variation on my standard Hall of Fame argument for retiring Yankee numbers. For the HOF I generally ask “Can we compose a plaque?” that will be sufficient to put the player in question along side the all time greats. For this exercise, I’ll ask “Can we write an introductory speech?” that will be impressive enough to put him in the pantheon of Yankee immortals such as Ruth, DiMaggio, Mantle, etc. In Andy’s case, I think the answer is yes.

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Pettitte the Prospect

Posted by Eric Schultz at 8:23 pm 11 Responses »
Feb 042011

The recently-announced retirement of Andy Pettitte is the hot story around the media and the blogosphere, and deservedly so.  His retirement has significant implications for the playoff hopes of the current squad, and also has elicited some controversy as to whether he is Hall of Fame worthy (will probably be discussed ad nauseum until there is more real news to discuss).  Andy Pettitte has long been one of my favorite Yankees (#1 since the retirement of Paul O’Neill), and there have been/will be many emotional farewell, “thanks for the memories” posts around the blogosphere, to thank the big lefty for his 13 years of service in pinstripes.  This post, however, will cover none of the above.

Instead, inspired by John Sickels’ excellent post profiling Andy Pettitte’s career (from the minors on), I just wanted to take some time to reflect on Pettitte’s path to the majors.   I recommend reading John’s post to get the more thorough breakdown, but I’ll just give my thoughts here.

Petttitte was a 22nd round pick in 1990, and instead of signing out of high school, Andy attended San Jacinto Junior College for a year.  Interestingly, Pettitte’s coach at San Jacinto was Wayne Graham, who went on to have a highly successful career coaching at Rice University, producing many first-round pitchers including David Aardsma, Phil Humber, Jeff Niemann, Wade Townsend, and Joe Savery.  Graham has notorious for working his pitchers very hard, which may have contributed to the significant injury histories of these and several other Rice pitchers.  Another fun fact that I learned is that while at San Jacinto, Graham coached a young Roger Clemens (before he transferred to Texas).

He eventually signed with the Yankees out of juco for an $80,000 bonus, a decent chunk of cash for 1990, but hardly the type of money you would expect for a guy who went on to have Pettitte’s long and distinguished career.  This was back in the days of draft and follow, when the team retained a player’s rights for a year if he went to junior college, and could sign him if they liked what they saw.  According to this old story in the Daily News, Pettitte was offered a chance to transfer to the University of Texas, a perennial baseball powerhouse, but chose the Yanks instead.   Given the track that Pettitte ended up following, it’s likely that Andy would have had a very successful college career as a Longhorn, and would’ve been a high pick in the 1994 draft (when he would have first been eligible).  The 1st round of the ’94 draft ended up being a mediocre round for pitching (Jaret Wright was probably the best pitcher from 1994′s first round).

Andy’s minor league career was very impressive, but due primarily to his low draft position (I would hypothesize), he never made a top 100 list until 1995 (when he was #49 on the BA list).  His minor league stats are below.

Year Age Lev W L ERA IP H ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
1991 19 Rk-A- 6 3 1.55 69.2 49 12 1 24 83 1.048 6.3 0.1 3.1 10.7 3.46
1991 19 Rk 4 1 0.98 36.2 16 4 0 8 51 0.655 3.9 0.0 2.0 12.5 6.38
1991 19 A- 2 2 2.18 33.0 33 8 1 16 32 1.485 9.0 0.3 4.4 8.7 2.00
1992 20 A 10 4 2.20 168.0 141 41 4 55 130 1.167 7.6 0.2 2.9 7.0 2.36
1993 21 A+-AA 12 9 3.06 164.2 151 56 7 49 135 1.215 8.3 0.4 2.7 7.4 2.76
1993 21 A+ 11 9 3.04 159.2 146 54 7 47 129 1.209 8.2 0.4 2.6 7.3 2.74
1993 21 AA 1 0 3.60 5.0 5 2 0 2 6 1.400 9.0 0.0 3.6 10.8 3.00
1994 22 AAA-AA 14 4 2.86 169.2 161 54 8 39 111 1.179 8.5 0.4 2.1 5.9 2.85
1994 22 AA 7 2 2.71 73.0 60 22 5 18 50 1.068 7.4 0.6 2.2 6.2 2.78
1994 22 AAA 7 2 2.98 96.2 101 32 3 21 61 1.262 9.4 0.3 2.0 5.7 2.90
1995 23 AAA 0 0 0.00 11.2 7 0 0 0 8 0.600 5.4 0.0 0.0 6.2
8 Seasons 43 20 2.46 608.0 522 166 21 171 493 1.140 7.7 0.3 2.5 7.3 2.88
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/4/2011.

Looking at this list, the numbers are impressive, but nothing earth-shattering.  The career ERA of 2.46, while advancing fairly quickly through the minors, is pretty strong.  Despite getting a lateish start to his minor league career compared to a high school pitcher, Andy pretty much moved up a level every year, and was never overmatched.  He reached full-season ball at age 19 (after a strong rookie ball debut), and made it to AA at 21.  He spent the next 2 seasons (1994 and 1995) between AA and AAA, before making his debut with the big club in 1995.  In his minor league career,  Pettitte demonstrated very good control (career 2.5 bb/9) and a respectable but not overwhelming strikeout rate (7.3 k/9), which would likely keep him from being a top prospect in this day and age.  I have not been able to find anything in the way of old scouting reports, but according to Sickels  Andy never particularly impressed scouts with either his fastball velocity or his secondary offerings, and was viewed primarily as a control pitcher coming up.  His minor league strikeout and walk rates were very similar to the numbers he posted in the bigs.

Was Pettitte misranked as a prospect?  That’s hard to say.  In retrospect, given the great career he had, it’s hard to believe that he didn’t make the BA top 100 until 1995, and even then was ranked behind such luminaries as Brian Hunter (OF Astros), Doug Million (LHP Rockies), Scott Ruffcorn (RHP White Sox) and Josh Booty (3b Marlins).  It must have been Jim Callis’ anti-Yankee bias at work (sarcasm, which I realize doesn’t translate well on the internet).  Believe it or not, all those guys I mentioned were in the top 25, and none of them had significant major league careers.  To be fair to BA, prospecting was a different game back then, and I think they have a lot more information at their disposal presently than they did in the early 90′s.

Where would 1995 Pettitte fit in on today’s top prospects list?  Looking at Keith Law’s top 100 list, Andy profiles similarly to #11 Zach Britton (LHP Orioles) on a statistical basis (though Britton throws a little harder and gets more grounders).  Law would probably have Pettitte lower than Britton based on scouting reports.  I would guess that Pettitte would have fit in around #60, near two lefthanded prospects (Cleveland’s Drew Pomeranz and Atlanta’s Mike Minor) who were both 1st-round picks out of college, but are not considered to have front of the rotation stuff.  In the current Yankee prospect list, he would probably be around #4 or 5, behind Montero, Banuelos, and Betances (and possibly Gary Sanchez, depending on how bullish you are willing to be on a teenager), and ahead of Brackman, Romine, Noesi, etc.

What lessons can be learned about Pettitte as a prospect?  If anything, it illustrates the crapshoot nature of predicting the development of young prospects, and at times the absurdity of the ranking process.  Pettitte was your classic high floor, low ceiling prospect, but when he hit  (and exceeded) his “ceiling”, he was tremendously valuable.  Maybe the prospect ranking industry does get too wrapped up in ceilings, pipe dreams, scouting reports, and strikeouts, and we should give more credit to guys who are able to consistently retire hitters across all levels of the minors, while maintaining good control and limiting homers.  Maybe we should pay more attention to guys like Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, David Phelps, who have been successful throughout their careers, and have great “pitchability”, and be more bearish on guys like Andrew Brackman, who despite his tantalizing potential, has a lot of work to do to even make the majors.  Sure, it’s more likely that Pettitte was an anomaly, and for every Pettitte there are dozens of “pitchability” prospects who never can handle the transition to the majors.

The attributes that made Andy Pettitte a great pitcher could not have been predicted from his minor league numbers.  He showed great aptitude for pitching in developing a nasty cutter at a young age, and reducing his use of the cutter and developing a dangerous curveball at an older age to prevent further injuries.  His tireless work ethic likely contributed to his impressive durability, which was one of his greatest assets throughout his career.  What Pettitte had were certain intangible qualities (not grit and hustle, ok) that do not show up in scouting reports, radar guns, or stat sheets, and these intangibles helped transform him from middling prospect to borderline Hall of Famer.  Trying to predict the next Pettitte would likely be an exercise in futility, but I have my hopes that Manny Banuelos is ready to take up the mantle of the next great Yankee lefty.  If the photo below is any guide, he already has a pretty decent stare.

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The Obligitory Andy Article

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 2 Responses »
Feb 042011

Andy Pettitte has long been one of my favorite pitchers in baseball. Yes, this is obvious. He pitched for the Yankees and I love the Yankees. But, like many of you, I always felt more of a “connection” to Andy Pettitte. Why? Well, a stupid reason. Andy and I share June 15th as our birthday. Not only was Andy the best pitcher for my favorite team, but he and I had the same birthday! When you’re a little kid, that sort of thing means a lot to you.

My dad and I have since started a relatively extensive autograph collection, but the first one I remember getting was one by Andy Pettitte, but it’s not on a baseball and I wasn’t there to see it signed. My mother worked in a now-gone store on Greenwich Avenue here in (duh) Greenwich. At the time, I can’t remember exactly what year, Andy was one of a handful of Yankees living in or around Greenwich. He came into my mother’s store to buy a gift for someone and she recognized him rather quickly. Of course the first thing she said was how big a fan I was and that he and I had the same birthday. Shyly, she asked if he would sign a business card and, luckily for me, Andy obliged:

Perhaps it’s odd that I don’t have many old memories of Pettitte, but that could be because I was far too young to fully appreciate baseball and watch each and every game with the same gusto I do now. I do, though, remember being crushed along with my friend Doug when the Yankees and Andy parted ways in the early part of the last decade. I remember being thrilled and having a “this just feels right” feeling when Andy came back in 2007.

I guess, then, my favorite Andy memory–memories would be more apt–would be the entire 2009 season. 2009′s World Series win will always hold the most special place in my baseball heart because it was the first Yankee World Series win I was old enough to appreciate. I’ll never forget Andy start each of the series clinching games. I’ll never forget sitting on the couch with my girlfriend, going nuts when Andy Pettitte got that single off of Cole Hamels in Game Three of the World Series.

Andy was never amazingly dominant for a long period of time, but, more importantly, he was never awful for long periods of time. My memory of Andy Pettitte will be one of the stare. It will be one of the kick. It will be one of the pick off mood. It will be one of the fist pump. It will be one of the smile. It will be one of consistency. It will be one I will recall fondly when watching baseball with my children. It will be one of love. In the future when I think of my love of baseball, Andy Pettitte will be one of the first players I think of.

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Andy's final game in pinstripes

Posted by Steve S. at 7:00 am 1 Response »
Feb 042011

It was a seasonally warm 55 degree October night in front of a packed house in Yankee Stadium. Tino Martinez threw out the ceremonial first pitch, and the Yanks honored longtime fan Freddy (‘Freddy Sez’) Schuman before the game, who had died the day before at age 85. The series was tied 1-1, with the Yanks and Rangers splitting the first two games in Arlington. Game 3 of the 2010 ALCS, facing none other than the seemingly unbeatable Cliff Lee. Its about as pressure-packed as a situation can be, one where Andy seemed to find himself in the post season a million times before. Andy was battling back and groin injuries toward the end of the year, as if his aging body was sending him a message, but as a fan you still had confidence he would find a way to get it done. You’ve just seen him do it too many times before.

This time, Andy stumbled out of the gate. He gave up a single to center to Michael Young. Normally, that wouldn’t be much of an issue. But next up was 2010 MVP Josh Hamilton. Andy threw him his trademark pitch, a cut fastball on a 2-1 pitch that Josh deposited deep into the right field stands. It was just the 3rd HR Andy gave up to a left handed batter all season, the other two coming from the Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Carlos Pena.

“It was just a bad pitch by me,” Pettitte said. “At the time, you don’t think that’s going to win the ballgame.”

Andy's final act on the mound, a fist pump celebrating an A-Rod play

A less tough, less experienced pitcher might have let that first inning affect him, but not Andy. Pettitte has more starts (42) and more Wins (19) than any other pitcher in postseason history. He found his rhythm, settled in and retired 15 of the next 16 batters after the Hamilton HR. But the damage was done, and for all intents and purposes you could have turned the game off after the first inning. Cliff Lee was his usual, dominating self facing the Yanks in the post season. In in 8 innings pitched he gave up just 2 hits and a walk while striking out 13.

“Cliff was great tonight, to say the least,” Pettitte said. “He was just outstanding. You can’t say enough about what he did tonight in this ballpark. To be able to do what he did is pretty impressive.”

NEW YORK - OCTOBER 18: Andy Pettitte #46 of the New York Yankees walks back to the dugout at the end of the top of the seventh inning against the Texas Rangers in Game Three of the ALCS during the 2010 MLB Playoffs at Yankee Stadium on October 18, 2010 in New York, New York. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Andy Pettitte Photo: Getty Images, Al Bello / 2010 Getty Images

According to Brian Cashman, after the game was over Andy called him aside and told him “Don’t wait on me” if he had any plans to sign a pitcher this off season. Brian said that struck him as unusual. Andy has gone through an annual soul searching on whether or not to return every winter, but he never said anything like that to him before. It seems Andy knew which way he was leaning long before anyone else did.

He was acknowledged by a standing ovation, and — with the left-hander at age 38 — there is a possibility that it could have been Pettitte’s final Yankee Stadium moment.

“Sitting in the clubhouse, you kind of think about that,” Pettitte said. “But then there’s a lot of baseball to be played. And I feel real good about our team and about the club that we have.”

Recaps of the game the following day in newspapers and websites focused on how dominating Lee was, the way the Yankee bullpen imploded after Andy’s exit, and how impressive the Rangers rookie Closer Neftali Feliz looked. Yet the biggest story of the game, one we didn’t know at the time, was that it final game that Andy Pettitte would ever pitch.

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Andy Pettitte To Retire

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 10 Responses »
Feb 032011

Capping off a tumultuous offseason in which the Yankees seemed to have been denied every player they really wanted, Andy Pettitte has decided to retire. While we can hold out hope that Andy changes his mind at some point and joins the club for the second half ala Roger Clemens, this leaves the Yankees with very little margin for error in their rotation. They need CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, and AJ Burnett to pitch well, and have to get decent production from at least one of their young pitchers or reclamation projects. They still project to win about 90 games and to be better than the other wild card contenders, but the gap between them and their closest competitors is very slim, such that one injury to a top 3 starter could really hurt their chances of making the postseason. There is no way to spin this as anything other than a blow to the Yankees championship hopes.

As for Andy, he is a fan favorite here in New York, and rightfully so. For many of us, watching him blossom from a prospect into a rotation stalwart was an important element of the beginning of our Yankee fandom, as Ben Kabak eloquently notes:

I grew up with Andy Pettitte. I was 12 and he was 23 when he came up to pitch in the Majors. I saw him morph from a prospect to a team leader and a stalwart in the rotation. I’ll certainly miss his stare, his familiar leg kick, his pick-off move and the fact that he would pitch every five days and give it his all. We’re all growing up and getting older, and it just won’t be the same in the Bronx without him.

There will be a lot of eulogizing done over the next few days, both for Andy’s career and for the Yankees 2011 season. Discussions of Andy’s Hall of Fame worthiness are likely to dominate the former, while gratuitous shots at Brian Cashman and the Yankee front office are likely to characterize the latter. We will address these issues over the next few days. For now, let’s just tip our caps to a great Yankee. Andy Pettitte will be missed.

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No Pettitte Shouldn't Mean No Patience

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Jan 132011

As you’ve probably heard, Andy Pettitte will not be pitching in 2011 (glove slap RAB). The first thing that ran through your head was probably a stream of expletives. Now, more than any time this offseason, we want the Yankees to make a move. Sign someone. Trade for someone. Do SOMETHING to help the rotation.

I can’t help but be on board with that mentality, but at the same time, we need to realize that the options out there are not all that wonderful. With each player out there–Jeff Francis, Justin Duchscherer, Jeremy Bonderman, Freddy Garcia–there is a good amount of risk. Francis and Duke are health concerns; Bonderman and Garcia are performance concerns. The White Sox looked to be shopping starters earlier in the Hot Stove Season, but we’ve heard nothing on that since, and now it seems unlikely that they will move a starter. Just about all other trade markets have been silent. Even if we don’t want to be patient, we have to be.

The Yankee Front Office–in which I have a lot of faith–likely recognizes the noticeable absence of good starting pitching options. They have also likely taken note of the relief pitching market, which has a stunningly similar lack of effective options (this isn’t to say that there aren’t good relief pitchers out there who could help the Yankees; it’s only to say that other things like cost and compensation will get in the way.). But on the other hand, the Yankee Front Office probably realizes that a rotation that is two fifths Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre isn’t all that great and probably won’t perform incredibly in the A.L. East. And while it’s likely that A.J. Burnett improves from his 2010 season, the only thing we can predict from his right arm is unpredictability. It looks like, though, we’ll have to deal with that rotation for at least some portion of the 2011 season.

As always, and as we all should, I have complete confidence in CC Sabathia. Phil Hughes, with even more experience under his belt, should improve. A.J. Burnett’s 2011 can’t possibly be worse than 2010. Ivan Nova does have some upside, no matter how small, but there’s still some there. Sergio Mitre…well…he gets ground balls? Mitre is really the only one I’m uncomfortable with. Luckily, replacing him at some point during the season shouldn’t be too hard. Like I said, there are some buy low options on the free agent market and at any point during the season, the trade market could develop and the Yankees could snag someone.

It’s not going to be easy, but we need to be steadfast in sticking with the patient outlook we’ve all taken on in the last few months. I’d be willing to bet that the Yankee starting five in October is not the one we’re looking at right now.

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Pettitte unlikely to start season with Yanks

Posted by Steve S. at 8:00 am No Responses »
Jan 132011

Decisions, decisions...

Brian Cashman added a bit of clarity to the seemingly never ending drama regarding Andy Pettitte’s return to pinstripes. Reporters caught up with him at the owner’s meetings yesterday, and the NY Daily News has the report:

“I don’t think he’s determined if he’s officially finished or not, but he’s chosen at this stage at least not to start in 2011,” Cashman said. “If that ever changes he’ll call us. We’re not going to hound him or bother him.”

Cashman then clarified his comments to say that nothing had changed in the situation, and that the Yankees were still waiting for word from their veteran lefty.

Here’s the video of Cashman’s statements from ESPN.com, so you can view it for yourself. While there’s nothing final or definitive here, you get a good sense of how the Yankees are approaching this. From Brian’s standpoint, he’s not pitching until he tells the team he is. As we get further into January, the likelihood of Andy returning gets less and less with every passing day. Pitchers and Catchers report in roughly one month, and many Baseball players begin preparing for the following season after the holidays. We don’t know whether Andy has begun his off season program or not. He has a training facility located within his house, so it’s not like someone will catch him going back and forth to the local Gold’s Gym.

This report should come as no surprise, when Andy has decided to come back he has generally told the team sometime in early December, and a contract was quickly worked out and signed by mid December. Although it is worth noting he did go all the way to mid January once before, back in 2009 after finishing up the 2008 season being banged up with nagging injuries as he did this year. After the disappointing 08 season, Andy didn’t announce his return until mid January and an incentive laden 5.5 mil base salary contract was signed on January 26th of that year. That year, Brian Cashman had little payroll flexibility on the heels of the Burnett, Sabathia and Teixeira signings, which explained the low base. This year, Brian Cashman has made it clear the Yanks are ready and willing to pay Andy, they’re just waiting on word from him.

Some have speculated that the pending Roger Clemens trial is giving Andy second thoughts about coming back, but I don’t buy that. As public and high profile as that trial may be, it pales in comparison to the congressional hearings Andy testified at in Spring Training of 2008. I find it hard to believe Andy would blow off an entire season for a few annoying days of answering questions about his testimony. By all accounts, he told the truth to Congress and would simply make the same statements at a trial. Despite the drama and wall to wall media coverage, it’s really all old news before it even happens.

The Plan B should come as little surprise as well, again from the Daily News article:

“I’m actively out there,” Cashman said. “It’s a very thin market to be flying in right now. That’s why we may have to rely on our strong farm system a little bit sooner than we expected.”

Ivan Nova, Hector Noesi, David Phelps, Sergio Mitre and I’m sure a few MLB retreads like Freddy Garcia or Justin Duchscherer will enter camp and fight it out this spring for their chance to pitch in the 2011 Yankee rotation, with the Killer Bs knocking on the door as mid-season call ups. Let the best man TWO men win.

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With Capuano off market, Francis becomes more attractive

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm No Responses »
Jan 042011

The Mets made a nice move yesterday, signing lefty Chris Capuano to a $1.5MM deal (along with Taylor Buchholz). With those two off of the market–as well as Brandon Webb–the only real buy low options at this point are Chris Young and Jeff Francis. Moshe laid out a great case for Francis last month and after reviewing that, and perusing the current market, he is definitely the best option out there.

As a lefty, Francis has a natural advantage over the right handed Young. And, despite missing all of 2009, Francis still pitched more Major League innings in 2010 (104.1) than Chris Young did in 2009 and 2010 combined (96.0). Young’s 2009 and 2010 seasons were also rife with control issues: 4.7 BB/9 and 5.0 BB/9 respectively, with K/9 marks of 5.9 and 6.8. There is also something very concerning about Young.

In 2010, Young averaged just 84.7 MPH on his fastball in 2010. That is most definitely not a good sign. His control hasn’t been there in the last two years (also had a 4.2 BB/9 in ’08) and he’s lost his strikeout numbers, as well as his stuff. There is always a chance he could regain his stuff, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. We could be looking at another case of Javier Vazquez and the Nothingball.

I was pretty ambivalent about Francis in the last few weeks, but with the options dwindling, I think he’s worth taking a flier on. The market dictates a one year deal for around $1MM or less, and I’d definitely be okay with that. Francis would likely be able to beat out whoever for the 4th/5th starter race and would probably be more successful than Sergio Mitre in the rotation.

For what it’s worth, Bill James projects Francis to throw 87 innings in 2011 at a 4.25 FIP. That IP total is definitely incredibly conservative, especially considering Francis pitched over 100 innings in 2010. That 4.25 FIP, though, is something more than acceptable out of a 4th/5th starter. We have to note, though, that the FIP projection is not adjusted for playing in the A.L. or at Yankee Stadium III. Having pitched in Coors Field, however, Francis has experience pitching in a hitter’s park. He’s also adjusted his batted ball profile over the last few years. He upped his GB% from 43.6 to 47.0 in 2010, while dropping his FB% from 36.1 to 32.2%, the third straight season with a drop in FB%. 2010 also saw Francis put up a 106 tRA+ as a starter, so the contact he was giving up was weaker than league average by six percent.

Part of the possibility of Jeff Francis rests on Andy Pettitte. If Andy Pettitte changes his apparent course and decides not to retire, the need for Francis decreases and the Yankees could use Ivan Nova as the fifth starter instead of the fourth starter. This would hardly be unacceptable and if the Yankees decided to stand pat with a hypothetical rotation of Sabathia/Hughes/Pettitte/Burnett/Nova, I’d be fine. But, I think signing Jeff Francis would still be a wise move. At the very least, it would give the Yankees another arm to look at in Spring Training. The loser of that competition could also be transferred to the bullpen to give the Yankees another option at long reliever, which is something I prefer. No matter what happens with Andy Pettitte, the Yankees should try and sign Jeff Francis.

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Pettitte Decision Soon, Likely To Retire

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:43 pm No Responses »
Jan 032011

From Bob Klapisch:

#Yankees are prepared for Pettitte to tell them he’s retiring, saying “everything” points that way. Decision should come this week.

The Yankees had said that they were already moving forward as if Andy was not returning, but you have assume that his official retirement would exacerbate their pitching issues and accelerate any timeline for obtaining a starter. If he does announce that he is leaving, I would expect the Yankees to move quickly on low-risk type guys such as Jeff Francis, and to explore possible trades with a bit more interest. If they start the season with Sergio Mitre in the rotation, I will be shocked. Regardless, this news is blow to the Yankees rotation, and will require Brian Cashman to get creative with his pitching moves. Hopefully, he is up for the task.

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