On the 17th, Tim of MLB Trade Rumors posted the off season in review for the Yankees. There, he obviously lists all the moves that Brian Cashman has made since the Yankees won their 27th championship in November. Since the roster is more or less set, and we’ve got little to do until the Spring Training opener, I thought it’d be nice for us to do a little review of some of the different moves. Today, we’ll talk about pitching
The Yankees made two moves in the rotation this year: they re-signed Andy Pettitte to a one year, $11.75MM deal and acquired Javier Vazquez from the Braves–along with reliever Boone Logan–for Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, and Arodys Vizcaino. Both of these moves are good moves, and I think we all know why.
Pettitte may not be very flashy anymore, but he’s almost a lock to provide 180-200 innings of at least league average pitching. He’s had that type of season (at least 180 IP/100 or greater ERA+) in 11 of his 15 Major League seasons. Consistent performance like that is incredibly valuable, especially when it’s coming from the team’s third starter.
Consistency is also something they’ll get from Javy Vazquez, who’s pitched under 200 innings just three times in his career (172.1 in ‘98, 154.2 in ‘99, and 198 in ‘04). Considering he’ll be lined up as the de-facto fourth starter, the Yankees are likely to get great value from Vazquez. The trade that brought him (back) to the Bronx was also a great deal.
While Melky Cabrera was useful, his being traded seems to signal that the Yankees don’t think he’s going to grow much more than he already has. While that’s one long term ramification of the deal–there is another one–in the short term, it’s a solid deal. I’d be willing to bet something of good value that Javier Vazquez will be more valuable in 2010 than Melky Cabrera will. The other piece the Yankees sent along, Arodys Vizcaino, definitely has high upside but he’s still untested in a full season league, so it’s more than doubtful that he’ll provide any value to Atlanta’s big club team in 2010.
Losing Vizcaino meant that the Yankees’ system took a big hit. However, like it’s been said, despite his undeniable talent, he’s very far away from being a big leaguer. It’s conceivable that, if they offer him arbitration and let Vazquez leave after this season, the Yankees could get a suitable replacement for Vizcaino in the 2011 draft.
Boone Logan was also brought in, and he’ll compete in Spring Training for a bullpen spot. If he makes it, it’ll be as the second lefty. Logan has a .702 OPS against lefties (.333/.398), so he could be a good second option. Is he a necessity? No. Could it hurt to give him an audition at some point in the season? Sure. Basically, Logan replaces Mike Dunn, who would’ve been the second lefty out of the bullpen after Phil Coke was traded to the Tigers.
Of course, the Yankees also lost some pitching in the offseason, though none if it is incredibly major. Aside from Vizcaino, the Yankees parted ways with Phil Coke, Ian Kennedy, Brian Bruney, Mike Dunn, Chien-Ming Wang and Josh Towers. Let’s break this down pitcher by pitcher:
Coke: The biggest loss of the pitchers, going solely by impact on the ‘09 team, he was likely to be the second lefty after (a hopefully healthy) Damaso Marte. Coke was traded to the Tigers along with outfielder Austin Jackson for Curtis Granderson. Apparently, the Tigers may try him in the rotation, though manager Jim Leyland sees–and rightly so–as a bullpen guy.
Kennedy: He went in the same deal as Coke, but he headed to Arizona. I’m sad to see Kennedy go. I feel like he never got a fair shake in NY and it would’ve been nice to see him compete for a bullpen spot (an Al Aceves type role) for 2010. Instead, he’ll likely end up in the Diamondbacks’ rotation, where he could do alright, as long as he’s not as timid as he was in his 2008 rotation stint. Attack the zone, Ian! Anyway, losing Kennedy made the Yankees’ depth take a hit, but that was somewhat fixed by Vazquez’s addition. And, like the other players in the two major trades of this offseason, the players brought in will definitely be more valuable than the players that left.
Bruney: Bruney was traded to the Nationals for their pick in the Rule V draft, which turned into outfielder Jamie Hoffmann. Brian would’ve been struggling to make a spot and after a few years of inconsistency–and the beginning of a relatively expensive portion of his career–the Yankees were right to cut him loose.
Dunn: Not a big loss, Dunn still needs some seasoning in AAA. If he can harness his control, he could be a decent lefty option going forward for the Braves.
Towers: This means literally nothing but the loss of some AAA fodder.
Wang: We’re all sad to see Wang go, but the move makes sense. There doesn’t seem to be room for Wang going forward. He wouldn’t be a good fit in the rotation–there’s no room there and he wouldn’t be the fifth, or even sixth, best starter on the Yankees–and his pitch-to-contact-style is not desirable for a bullpen pitcher. For the Nationals, this move is a low risk, medium reward signing. I wish CMW luck in our nation’s capital and I appreciate his pitching of ‘05-’08, but the Yankees will likely be better off without him.
Check back tomorrow for the hitting version of the offseason review.
No team can ever look exactly the same as it did the year before. As frustrating as this is, especially for a 103 win team coming off of its 27th World Series title, it is a fact that the players, executives, and fans of each team must learn each and every day.
According to the Baseball-Reference batting order page, the Yankees’ most frequent lineup in 2009 was:
1. Jeter
2. Damon
3. Teixeira
4. Rodriguez
5. Matsui
6. Posada
7. Cano
8. Swisher
9. Cabrera
Of those nine players, two are officially gone and it doesn’t look like another one is coming back, either. If we were to draw up the 2010 Yankee lineup as it looks today, it would appear as such:
1. Derek Jeter SS
2. Nick Johnson* DH
3. Mark Teixeira 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez 3B
5. Jorge Posada C
6. Curtis Granderson* CF
7. Robinson Cano 2B
8. Nick Swisher RF
9. Brett Gardner LF
* Denotes new acquisition
Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson essentially replace Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui on the offensive side of things, and Granderson definitely makes the outfield defense stronger, no matter where he plays, and is an obvious upgrade over the recently traded Melky Cabrera.
As for the starting rotation, it doesn’t appear much differently than last year’s did, with a notable exception. Javier Vazquez will once again be suiting up for the Pinstripers. He joins CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, (presumably) Joba Chamberlain, and the again-re-signed Andy Pettitte.
The full list of Yankee transactions, via MLBTR, is as follows:
* Acquired/Re-signed: Andy Pettitte, Jamie Hoffmann, Curtis Granderson, Mike Rivera, Boone Logan, Javier Vazquez, Nick Johnson, Javier Herrera, Jon Weber, Trent Lockwood
* Lost: Josh Towers, Hideki Matsui, Brian Bruney, Ian Kennedy, Austin Jackson, Phil Coke, Arodys Vizcaino, Melky Cabrera, Michael Dunn, Kanekoa Texeira, Cody Ransom
The moves represented by each of these players can be broken down (roughly) into two categories: big moves or depth moves. There are modifiers for just about every player in every category, but I’ll cross those bridges when I get to them. First, let’s look at the depth moves, since they can be run through rather quickly.
Though he’s on the 25 man roster, Jamie Hoffmann was more or less acquired for depth. He doesn’t seem ready to get a starting job, but should make for a decent bench option. If he can’t stick with the Yankees, he’ll be sent back to the Dodgers, but as a bench OF, he’s not exactly hard to replace.
Since Brian Bruney was used, essentially, to acquire Hoffmann, I’m going to put him in the depth category as well. Despite Bruney’s great stuff, the results just weren’t coming. He’s probably got a small bit of upside left, but his role in the Yankee bullpen would be unclear in 2010 and there’s only so many “one more chances” a guy can have. I wish Brian good luck in Washington.
Jon Weber is a career minor leaguer who could be seen as this year’s version of John Rodriguez. Mike Rivera is a career back up catcher who’s this year’s version of Kevin Cash.
I don’t know a thing about Trent Lockwood, except that he apparently played college ball at UT-San Antonio and played in an independent league in 2008. Something tells me this guy isn’t in the Yankees’ big-time plans.
Javier Herrera has a career .826 OPS in 1,441 minor league plate appearances in the Oakland system. He’s never played above AA ball, though, and has played in just 62 games in the past two seasons. His numbers, particularly the .468 SLG, are good, however, and he may be worth keeping an eye on in 2010. He plays the outfield.
As for the depth losses, Josh Towers and Cody Ransom are the very definition of the term “replacement level.” There are a ton of guys who can take their spots without us even noticing. These same things could be said of players to be included in the next category, but since they were involved in big moves, I’ll include them.
Let’s get the big ball rolling with Andy Pettitte. Though losing Andy Pettitte this offseason wouldn’t have been the worst thing in the world–especially now considering the Vazquez trade–but bringing him back was pretty important. The Yankees know what they’re getting out of Andy–180-200 innings of average, or slightly above average–pitching.
Next, we come to Curtis Granderson. He came to the Yankees in a three-way trade with the Tigers and Diamondbacks. Clearly, this is big. On the field, it gives the Yankees a starting center fielder for the next three years. In the clubhouse and off the field, it gives them a good guy who’s committed to his teammates and to the community; welcome to the Bronx, Curtis.
With the “re-acquiring” of Nick Johnson and Javier Vazquez for the 2010 (and possibly 2011 in the former’s case) season, we’re going to party like it’s 2004. Johnson brings his incredible on-base skills back to the Bronx and Vazquez returns with his trademarked durability and strikeout acumen. Johnson will slot nicely into the lineup’s two hole (that’s what she said?) and Vazquez looks to be the fourth starter, though he’s probably better than that. Left hander Boone Logan was also included in the trade that brought Javy to New York. He could end up as the second lefty out of the bullpen, behind Damaso Marte.
There are also “big” pieces that the Yankees lost (or will lose) in the 2010 off-season. In terms of both sentimentality and production, the biggest loss is DH and reigning World Series MVP Hideki Matsui. He signed as a free agent with the Angels and will DH for them, though he’s said he wants to try the outfield again. I hate to see Godzilla go, but I can’t blame the Yankees for letting him go. They clearly don’t think his body will hold up for another season and, as it’s been said a thousand times before, it’s better to let a player go a year early than a year late. Something tells me I’ll be saying the same thing about Johnny Damon in a little over a month’s time when Spring Training starts.
The Yankees have also lost some younger guys thus far, including fan favorite prospect Austin Jackson. He was shipped to Detroit along with fellow youngster Phil Coke in the Curtis Granderson deal. Ian Kennedy also left in that trade, landing in Arizona. Of the three, I think Kennedy will have the biggest impact on his new team, as he’ll likely have a shot at joining the Diamondbacks’ rotation. Losing him hurts because he represented a better level of depth than people realized, but he likely had no room on the 2010 team. I feel that IPK always got a bad rap from Yankee fans and wish him all the best in Arizona.
Losing Coke to Detroit does not hurt the Yankees all that much. He would be the second lefty out of the bullpen and is easily replaceable. We thought he’d be replaced by Mike Dunn, but he was shipped to Atlanta in the Vazquez deal. Dunn is a nice lefty with a decent amount of upside. Also moved to Atlanta were Arodys Vizcaino and Melky Cabrera. I’ll discuss the former–along with Austin Jackson–in a second, but first, let’s focus on the Melk man.
While Melky is still young and may still have some upside left in him, the time to trade him came and Cashman made the right move in dealing him. Chances are, Melky doesn’t get much better than he is now, through over 2,000 plate appearances. Melky will give Atlanta what he gave to the Yankees: decent defense and about league average offense from the bottom of the order. That’s not a worthless skill-set, but it’s not irreplaceable either. Good luck, Melky; may you feast on NL East pitching.
Wrapping this up are Jackson and Vizcaino. Jackson was the only position player in the system close to coming up and contributing and Vizcaino shined in two stints in short-season ball. The loss of both players hurts the farm system, but it does not completely devastate the system. While Vizcaino looked promising, he still hasn’t pitched in a full season league, and there are other young, high-upside arms ahead of him in the minors. Jackson’s loss hurts more, as the Yankees don’t seem to have any high-upside position players (non-catcher division), aside from Slade Heathcott, who is obviously years away. Jackson’s been a popular player in the minors among Yankee fans and we’ve long anticipated his arrival in the Majors. It will be bittersweet when he makes his debut for the Tigers, but like all things baseball, trading him was only business, and not personal.
As it stands right now, the Yankees have a pretty damn good starting rotation. All three of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Javier Vasquez could easily head the rotations of just about any team in baseball. While I think we’d all agree that Sabathia is the ace and leader of the staff, I think there is room for debate as to who is the Yankees’ second best starter.
Because of how it lined up this past year–and the success the rotation had in 2009–it seems that everyone assumes Burnett will be the second starter, followed by Andy Pettitte, followed by Vasquez, followed by Jophil Chamberhughes. By the end of the season, though, I think we’ll all see that Vasquez is a fourth starter in “number” only.
Both the CHONE and CAIRO systems project the incredibly durable Vazquez (no fewer than 198 innings since 1999) to throw more innings than Burnett, walk fewer than Burnett, and strike more batters out than Burnett. We could be cautious about this because of the limited success Vazquez had in the A.L. East in 2004, but that’s a one year sample that was heavily swayed by one awful half of a baseball season.
Combining the two projection systems, we can expect the Burnett/Vazquez combo to post an ERA of about 3.91 which, in the A.L. East would be great.
Both pitchers have their upsides and their flaws. Vazquez always puts up great peripherals, but somehow, the ERA doesn’t quite follow. He pitches massive amounts of innings and truly racks up strikeouts, but he also gives up his fair share of gopher balls. Burnett is similar in many ways. His stuff is arguably the best stuff in baseball, but his control can be an issue at times. And, while he’s gotten through the last two season without injury issues, I think we’re all holding our breath for something to happen to A.J.
Regardless of how you line the five Yankee starters up, their rotation will be a strength in 2010.
In CC Sabathia, they have what everyone wants in a pitcher: he eats innings and performs at a high level during all those innings. In A.J. Burnett, they have a guy who can be flat-out nasty for extended periods of time, despite some periods of frustration. In Andy Pettitte, they have a time-tested veteran who will always give you innings. In Javier Vazquez, they have a hybrid of Sabathia and Burnett: a workhorse who can also be a little frustrating. In either Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes, they have a youngster with almost unlimited potential who could explode onto the scene at any second.
The Yankee rotation is far from perfect, just like every rotation in baseball, but it still looks like it’s going to be one of the better ones in the American League. Pairing that rotation with the already potent offense gives the Yankees a very bright outlook for 2010, one that could potentially outshine 2009.
Update (11:30 AM) – Digital Sports Daily, via twitter, reports that the Yankees have resigned Andy Pettite to a 1-year, 11.75 million dollar contract.
The Yankees are closing in on a deal with Andy Pettitte for about $12MM, tweets SI’s Jon Heyman. He says the contract will be finalized today.
I think that we all knew this was coming. Andy was doing his “I want more money so I might retire” thing, the Yankees paid him, and he’s back. Andy Pettitte will bring his above-average innings and playoff experience yet again to the Bronx, and I’m sure all Yankee fans are happy about that.
This decreases the need for a big pitching acquisition, though I’m sure the Yankees would love to go into the year with only one of Hughes and Chamberlain in the starting rotation, especially now that their first backup plan Ian Kennedy is out of the picture. I still advocate a low-cost, high-risk player like Rich Harden or Ben Sheets. And the Yankees are rumored to be on that track as well, so we’ll see.
Is Andy about to flip?
Reporting from Indianapolis, Joel Sherman states in his latest column that the Yanks have made an offer to Andy Pettitte, which was rejected. He writes:
INDIANAPOLIS — The Yankees claimed Andy Pettitte was their No. 1 offseason priority. And they have put their money where that statement is at while continuing to monitor the Roy Halladay market.
Pettitte was the first and only player the Yankees have made an offer to since the World Series ended, The Post has learned. The proposal was for one year in what was believed to be the $10 million range or about what Pettitte made in 2009 between base salary and bonuses.
The initial offer was not accepted, but an NL official who had spoken to an involved party insisted the deal will get done, and privately the Yankees believe Pettitte wants to pitch in The Bronx in 2010.
While I’d agree with the assessment that a deal will get done, that’s a pretty fair offer by the Yanks. It’s basically guaranteeing what he made in base salary and incentives last year, which is where many of us thought these negotiations would end up. That’s the kind of offer that coincides with the Yanks reported intent of getting him signed as their #1 priority. It says to Andy ‘Let’s not fool around and wrap this up quickly’ but Andy doesn’t seem to be playing along.
We reported Andy being quoted late last season saying that he wasn’t happy with his last contract, and we all know what happened in 2004. When it comes to Andy, you never know if things will get personal (again) and he winds up taking a lesser offer in Texas or with the Dodgers. If that happens, I’d have to believe Roy Halladay will become a much bigger priority for Cashman.
(Photo courtesy of NY Magazine)
As explained by Tim Dierkes (MLBTR), “[f]or a team to receive draft pick compensation for a departing free agent, arbitration first must be offered to that player. The risk is that the player will accept, and the team will be stuck with that player on a non-guaranteed contract for 2010.” Last winter, in order to sidestep fiscal “risk” and reallocate funds to effectively improve their ball club (e.g., CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, A.J. Burnett), the Yankees chose not to offer arbitration to any of their ranked free agents. In a depressed market, the move, which was originally criticized by many fans and writers, was ultimately a wise one, as most players, even those with plenty to offer — see, Bobby Abreu — struggled to find lucrative contracts on the open market. Had the Yankees made arbitration offers in the hopes that they would later receive compensatory picks upon their free agents signing elsewhere, perhaps those same free agents would have accepted and limited Brian Cashman’s ability to better equip the team for 2009 (again, he needed payroll space).
However, this winter, with fewer holes to fill, a thinner free agent class, and a championship caliber core still present in the Bronx, the situation has evolved and the Yankees could very well offer arbitration to their ranked free agents rather than decline to do so. In fact, the club’s arbitration decisions will be announced later today, therefore, we won’t have to wait long to hear about who was offered arbitration and who was not. While Xavier Nady, a Type-B free agent, probably won’t receive such an offer due to his injury-marred campaign, his cost, and the presence of Nick Swisher, Johnny Damon and Andy Pettitte are two players that could be considered for offers, as the Yankees reportedly want both of them to return for next season.
In Damon’s case, after earning $13M in 2009, if the Yankees were to extend an arbitration offer to him, following an arbitration hearing (or perhaps the two parties will agree to a deal), he would likely receive a figure close to $16M in 2010. While this is above market value — overpaying an aging left fielder with poor defensive credentials certainly is not ideal — it does provide a significant benefit in terms of short-term roster flexibility (in essence, the Yankees would be overpaying for that flexibility). Based on published reports, however, it seems as though Damon, along with his agent Scott Boras, would be displeased with a one-year deal. The two appear to be seeking a 3-4 year contract in order to capitalize on Damon’s productive year, therefore, it is definitely not a foregone conclusion that Damon would accept an arbitration offer, as he is much more likely to reject such a proposal. As a Type-A free agent, if Damon does, indeed, decline the organization’s arbitration offer, they would subsequently receive two draft picks (first and second round) from his future team. That’s obviously not a bad thing, although the Yankees would still be in need of a new left fielder.
With Andy Pettitte, the arbitration decision could be a lot clearer. While Pettitte was not content with having to accept an incentive-laded deal (roster and performance bonuses) with a “meager” base salary of $5.5M for 2009, he did end up winning most of those incentives and earned $11M, in total. Due to his impressive 3.3 WAR performance this season, one that was worth $15M according to FanGraphs (about $4.5M per win), the Yankees may inevitably choose to offer Pettitte arbitration. Though I am uncertain of the manner in which roster and performance bonuses are taken into account when negotiating arbitration offers, I would assume that Pettitte could amass more than the $11M he earned with the Bombers, meaning that his 2010 salary, after the arbitration process (agreeing to a deal or attending a hearing), would inch closer to $13.5M. With a state of ambiguity surrounding the team’s starting rotation, the Yankees would be particularly pleased if Pettitte were to accept that offer. If Pettitte, a Type-B free agent, rejects the team’s arbitration overtures and signs elsewhere — an outcome that is thought to be unlikely — the Yankees would garner a supplemental draft pick from the lefty’s new team.
So, while we wait for today’s arbitration announcement, which won’t arrive until later tonight, what do you think? Could Damon receive an offer due to the flexibility such a deal would provide the Yankees (collecting two prospects would be great, too)? Given the team’s pitching needs, maybe Andy Pettitte should be offered arbitration (perhaps you believe both players should receive arbitration offers)? Will either player be presented with offers or will we see a repeat of last winter’s strategy? For the record, both Tom Singer (MLB) and George King (NY Post) have reported that the Yankees are unlikely to offer any of their free agents arbitration.
From Jon Heyman:
The world champion Yankees have top free-agent pitcher John Lackey on their free-agent shopping list, sources said. The Yankees aren’t expected to be as aggressive this winter on the free market as last offseason and they haven’t firmed up all their plans as yet, but one league source said of Lackey, “He’s definitely on their radar.”
Word is that the Yankees probably will be willing to repeat A.J. Burnett’s $82.5 million, five-year contract for Lackey. Although, one person close to Lackey — whose offer to stay with the Angels this spring was for less than $40 million over three years on top of this year’s $10 million salary — indicated the longtime Angels right-hander sees himself in a higher echelon than Burnett. Lackey was 11-8 with a 3.83 ERA for the Angels last year and has been their ace for some of his eight seasons there.
Even if postseason hero Andy Pettitte returns to the Yankees — and he told a few teammates he believes he’ll come back for one more year, though there’s no definitive word on this — the Yankees envision themselves looking at the starting-pitching market since they are uncertain whether Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes will start or work out of the bullpen next year. The Yankees used a three-man rotation in the playoffs out of necessity.
I am a huge John Lackey fan, so I would not be upset to see the Yankees bring him in. However, assuming Andy Pettitte comes back, wouldn’t that money be better spent on Matt Holliday? Personally, I think the Yankees should sign their own guys to short term deals and sit out this free agency class, but if they do decide to hand out “Burnett” money, it would be better spent on getting younger in LF/DH rather than adding another starter to a team that should be fine pitching-wise in 2010.
Agree? Disagree?
CC Sabathia serves as an organic counter-argument to the notion that a three-man rotation, reliant upon four possible short-rest performances from its three starters, does not work in the World Series. In Game 1 against the Phillies, Sabathia pitched well and, in Game 4, to everyone’s surprise (well, not really), he also pitched well. Basically, despite performing on short-rest, Sabathia pitched as he normally does, rewarding Joe Girardi’s confidence in an abbreviated rotation.
However, thanks to A.J. Burnett’s memorable Game 5 implosion (6 ER over 2 IP), the three-man rotation, which seemed like a good idea after Sabathia’s outing, has suddenly become a bleak proposition. Pitchers are often billed as creatures of habit, therefore, to break that habit’s particulars and start a pitcher on short-rest seems like an outwardly destructive decision. Yet, I ask, in the end, isn’t effective pitching the simple result, not necessarily of an extra day’s rest, but of individual execution, as CC Sabathia demonstrated in Game 4 (and, as he had done during the ALCS)? If all starters are doomed to fail on short-rest, then how, exactly, did Sabathia buck a fixed trend and perform so admirably?
Those who disagree with the three-man plan will argue that Sabathia is an altogether different animal. With a massive 290 lb. frame, he is, according to them, built for extra work on short-rest. He is nothing like the unpredictable arm of A.J. Burnett or the aged and often fatigued arm of Andy Pettitte. To the dejected detractors of the three-man rotation, Sabathia’s body is an outlier that explains everything. However, when you truly reflect upon that notion, that Sabathia’s buxom body is somehow behind his short-rested success, you quickly come to the realization that such an argument is entirely nonsensical. Sabathia pushes the 300 lb. envelope. In essence, he defies the logic of physicality with his remarkable endurance. He shouldn’t be as good as he is on short-rest (both Burnett and Pettitte appear to be in better shape), however, he is and will likely be that good in a potential Game 7. Now, why is that the case?
In one word—execution, plain and simple. Pitchers either execute or they don’t. A.J. Burnett simply failed to execute in Game 5. It was something we have seen him do (or not do) throughout the year. He wasn’t the unfortunate victim of rest deprivation. If Andy Pettitte pitches well tonight, or if he pulls a Kevin Brown, it will be because of pitch execution. Ultimately, an extra day of rest will have little do with it.
Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images
It is officially confirmed. Tomorrow, at Yankee Stadium, Andy Pettitte will start Game 6 on short-rest. In his career, Pettitte has started 14 games on 3 days of rest, winning only 4 of those starts (6 losses). During those 86 2/3 innings, which is a fairly “substantial” sample, Pettitte had a 4.15 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. He held opponents to a .266/.345/.387 line, striking out 69 while walking 38.
Pettitte last started on 3 days of rest in 2006, when he was 35-years old. However, Ed Price (FanHouse) reminds us that Pettitte has not started on 3 days of rest after throwing 100 or more pitches since July 19, 2001, when he was 29. He gave up 7 ER over 4 innings in that start against Detroit. One wonders if any of these numbers actually mean anything, though, given the unpredictable nature of this particular situation (as compared to the others).
I really do not have time today to go into this, but Mike Francesa has forced my hand by convincing every human being I know outside of the Yankee blogosphere that Chad Gaudin should be starting tonight. Here are the relevant data points:
1) Chad Gaudin has thrown 2.1 innings since Sept. 28.
2) Chad Gaudin is awful against lefties, who are the key to the Phillies lineup.
2) AJ Burnett has a small sample of very strong starts on 3 days rest.
3) Andy Pettitte has solid career numbers on three days rest.
4) The Yankees have not overworked their starters, and they should be fully ready to survive one fewer day of rest. In the playoffs, these are the days of rest between starts for the three pitchers:
Sabathia 4,8,3,7,3
Burnett 4,7,4,6
Pettitte 7,7,5,5
5) All 3 pitchers have told Joe Girardi that they feel fine.
6) Burnett has actually been worse in his career on 5 days rest, which he would be pitching on in Game 6.
7) This is the last start of the season for all three. No need to hold anything back.
Basically, you have a choice between allowing a rusty Chad Gaudin to pitch in a World Series game, or bet on the guys who brought you here and who have been underworked over the last month or so. I am not sure why this seems like a difficult decision to some people. Joe Girardi has definitely made the right move.
