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PECOTA on the Bench

Posted by Sean P. at 3:00 pm 2 Responses »
Feb 082011

A couple of weeks ago we looked what CAIRO, the projection system, had to say about the Yankees bench. Now we’ll take a look at PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus’s projection system. Keep in mind that these numbers ARE park adjusted.

LASTNAME FIRSTNAME BATS POS PA HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Jones Andruw R CF 455 21 55 7 0.224 0.326 0.431
Cervelli Francisco R C 450 5 40 3 0.257 0.325 0.354
Maxwell Justin R CF 450 13 45 23 0.222 0.318 0.377
Laird Brandon R 3B 539 20 67 1 0.25 0.293 0.421
Russo Kevin R 2B 450 4 37 10 0.25 0.314 0.334
Belliard Ronnie R 2B 450 9 45 4 0.249 0.311 0.371
Nunez Eduardo S SS 496 7 49 15 0.268 0.299 0.365
Pena Ramiro S SS 450 5 38 9 0.241 0.287 0.326
Chavez Eric L 3B 450 10 43 2 0.223 0.293 0.353
Curtis Colin L LF 486 8 46 3 0.239 0.299 0.353
Golson Gregory R CF 480 9 47 15 0.24 0.281 0.354

The Yankees will almost certainly break camp with Andruw Jones and Frankie Cervelli. They’ll also want one backup SS which would be either Nunez or Pena. So the last spot could be up for grabs in a sense. Brandon Laird would be an interesting option but he hasn’t really shown the ability to hit in AAA much less the majors. It’s best for him to get regular at bats. Russo, Belliard and Chavez are interesting cases. Chavez can hit when he’s healthy, but that hasn’t happened for about half a decade. Belliard has a lot of positional utility and can kind of hit while the same can be said of Kevin Russo.  I think the smart money is probably on Ronnie Belliard.

For giggles, I put together this graph of positional players who are somewhat close to the Yankees 25 man roster. True average is on the X axis while fielding runs above average is on the Y.

Easy to get excited about Montero, no? I thought the Justin Snyder projection was interesting. He’s more of an organizational guy who does two things well- reach base and play defense. He’ll be at AAA in 2010 as he only has 6 ABs so far in Scranton. PECOTA also has Cervelli as better than Romine right now which I think is totally correct. While a lot of fans are chattering about Romine taking over for Cervelli this season, I think that’s getting a little too crazy. He’s not major league ready yet. I Ditto on Jorge Vazquez. I know a lot of people think he’s a hot commodity right now because of his Caribbean series exploits but I wouldn’t get carried away with that, or him for that matter.

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Creating Lineups

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 3 Responses »
Jan 242011

We pretty much know what the 25 man roster is going to be at this point, so let’s see what the different lineups will be. Using the latest round of CAIRO Projections from RLYW.net, I’ll put the player’s projected wOBA vs. RHP/LHP next to his name/position.

These projections are a combination of what I think the lineups WILL be:

vs. RHP

1. Jeter, SS .334
2. Swisher, RF .353
3. Teixeira, 1B .381
4. Rodriguez, 3B .382
5. Cano, 2B .379
6. Posada, DH .352
7. Granderson, CF .363
8. Martin, C .333
9. Gardner, LF .336

So against RHP, everyone projects to be at least average, with the middle of the lineup solidly above that mark. The median wOBA is .353. Let’s see what they could do versus LHP; there are a few ways this could go.

Option 1 vs. LHP (Granderson sits, Gardner to CF, Jones to LF)

1. Jeter, SS .364
2. Swisher, RF .367
3. Teixeira, 1B .393
4. Rodriguez, 3B .392
5. Cano, 2B .354
6. Posada, C .358
7. Jones, LF .332
8. Martin, C .357
9. Gardner, CF .310

The median wOBA here is .358. That’s not much of a change from the vs. RHP lineup, but it’s still a slight uptick. If we replace Gardner with Curtis Granderson (and his .297 projected wOBA vs. LHP), the median wOBA stays the same, since his would then be the lowest wOBA instead of Gardner’s. So, quickly, that tells us no matter which lefty outfielder is replaced, there won’t be much of a difference in the lineup. I suspect Joe Girardi will just keep the hot hand in there until he cools. All three outfielders in that shuffle–Granderson, Gardner, and Jones, are good enough at what they do that neither will leave an extraordinarily huge hole when absent from the lineup.

Just about everyone, myself included, sees a bounce back for Derek Jeter. After all, how could we not? Last year was the worst year of his career and there’s almost no way he can be that bad again. I wonder, though, if his slide continues, will Girardi pull him from the leadoff spot? If he does, who takes his place? I say it’s one of Gardner or Swisher. Gardner could work because he sees a ton of pitches, walks, and can steal bases. Swisher could take it because he’s a switch hitter with no drastic platoon split and provides a little more power, which would be useful for those batting behind him. He does strike out a bit more, though, but he showed in 2010 that he can cut back on them.

The rest of the lineup is just fine if you ask me. You could switch Tex/A-Rod if you wanted to, but the difference would probably be negligible. If anything, this lineup gives me confidence that the Yankees can still make the playoffs. Any lineup that features those hitters has more than a puncher’s chance at making it to October. Making it through October with that (current) pitching staff would be a challenge, but this team can definitely make it there. And once you’re there, anything can happen.

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Is Andruw Jones a HOFer?

Posted by Steve S. at 7:00 am 7 Responses »
Jan 212011

With the Yanks officially signing Andruw Jones yesterday, I took a look at his numbers and began to wonder if he has date with Cooperstown in his future. He was an elite player with the bat during his prime, and his reputation as a CF is well known. At first glance, his offensive numbers seem to fall a bit short, but his outsized reputation as the games best defender at a premium defensive position made me think the modern defensive metrics and WAR that take defense into account might be more kind to him. Here’s his offensive numbers courtesy of BR:

Year                      Age            Tm            Lg    G   PA   AB    R    H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB   SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+   TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB   Pos      Awards
1996                       19           ATL            NL   31  113  106   11   23   7  1   5   13   3  0   7   29 .217 .265 .443 .709   79   47   1   0  0  0   0                98
1997                       20           ATL            NL  153  467  399   60   92  18  1  18   70  20 11  56  107 .231 .329 .416 .745   93  166  11   4  5  3   2 *98/7       RoY-5
1998                       21           ATL            NL  159  631  582   89  158  33  8  31   90  27  4  40  129 .271 .321 .515 .836  116  300  10   4  1  4   8    *8          GG
1999                       22           ATL            NL  162  679  592   97  163  35  5  26   84  24 12  76  103 .275 .365 .483 .848  113  286  12   9  0  2  11    *8          GG
2000                       23           ATL            NL  161  729  656  122  199  36  6  36  104  21  6  59  100 .303 .366 .541 .907  125  355  12   9  0  5   0    *8   ASMVP-8GG
2001                       24           ATL            NL  161  693  625  104  157  25  2  34  104  11  4  56  142 .251 .312 .461 .772   94  288  10   3  0  9   3    *8          GG
2002                       25           ATL            NL  154  659  560   91  148  34  0  35   94   8  3  83  135 .264 .366 .513 .878  127  287  14  10  0  6   4  *8/D  ASMVP-16GG
2003                       26           ATL            NL  156  659  595  101  165  28  2  36  116   4  3  53  125 .277 .338 .513 .851  117  305  18   5  0  6   2    *8  ASMVP-13GG
2004                       27           ATL            NL  154  646  570   85  149  34  4  29   91   6  6  71  147 .261 .345 .488 .833  112  278  24   3  0  2   9    *8          GG
2005                       28           ATL            NL  160  672  586   95  154  24  3  51  128   5  3  64  112 .263 .347 .575 .922  136  337  19  15  0  7  13    *8 ASMVP-2GGSS
2006                       29           ATL            NL  156  669  565  107  148  29  0  41  129   4  1  82  127 .262 .363 .531 .894  126  300  13  13  0  9   9  *8/D  ASMVP-11GG
2007                       30           ATL            NL  154  659  572   83  127  27  2  26   94   5  2  70  138 .222 .311 .413 .724   87  236  16   8  0  9   4    *8          GG
2008                       31           LAD            NL   75  238  209   21   33   8  1   3   14   0  1  27   76 .158 .256 .249 .505   35   52   5   1  0  1   0               8/D
2009                       32           TEX            AL   82  331  281   43   60  18  0  17   43   5  1  45   72 .214 .323 .459 .782  100  129   7   2  0  3   3             D7/39
2010                       33           CHW            AL  107  328  278   41   64  12  1  19   48   9  2  45   73 .230 .341 .486 .827  119  135  15   3  0  2   0              987D
15 Seasons         15 Seasons    15 Seasons    15 Seasons 2025 8173 7176 1150 1840 368 36 407 1222 152 59 834 1615 .256 .338 .488 .826  111 3501 187  89  6 68                    68
162 Game Avg.   162 Game Avg. 162 Game Avg. 162 Game Avg.  162  654  574   92  147  29  3  33   98  12  5  67  129 .256 .338 .488 .826  111  280  15   7  0  5                     5

His career went south at such a young age (30) and his experience in Tinseltown was such a disaster that it’s easy to dismiss him. It’s safe to say the beat writers in Los Angeles won’t be voting for him anytime soon. But it’s important to remember he was playing and producing at an elite level from age 21. For a 9 year period from 1998-2006 he was widely recognized as the best defensive centerfielder in the game and hit 30+ HRs seven times. Had he been called up to the bigs later and done that from ages 24-33, people might view the arc of his career differently. But that shouldn’t matter. The numbers are what they are, and a 9 year stretch of dominance at your position puts you in the conversation for Cooperstown.

But the advanced metrics make the best case for Andruw. In terms of defense, his reputation was well founded.  During the peak of his career he was the best defensive player in Baseball, period. From 1998-2006 he lead all fielders with a 19.8 UZR-150 and 97.2 UZR. The only player in the game that was even remotely close was Adrian Beltre (19.0/90.1) the next closest after him was Scott Rolen (16.9/71.9) both of whom played 3B. He averaged 6.75 WAR each season from 1998-2006 and has 70.5 total for his career (87th all time). To put that in some sort of context, that puts him ahead of HOF Hank Greenberg (68.2) sure fire HOFers  Mike Piazza (68.2) Derek Jeter (70.4) and recent inductee Roberto Alomar (68.2). He is virtually identical to that of Mark McGwire (70.6) who is primarily being excluded for steroid allegations. He’s still just 33, so if he plays a few more years he should finish his career in the neighborhood of greats like Manny Ramirez (72.2) and HOFers Ernie Banks (74.1) Robin Yount (74.1) and ahead of all time greats Duke Snider (71.7) and Yogi Berra (71.4). Though I would be the first to admit there are many other non-HOF names that he is bunched in with once you get past the top 60 WAR players.

BRs black ink/grey ink Hall of Fame Monitor has him falling a bit short, but that measure only looks at batting. When you add his outstanding defense at a premium position, it may put him over the top. Andruw looks like the type of candidate who will have to take time to build a case. He’s not a no-brainer, and voters will have to be comfortable with advanced fielding metrics for his candidacy to build steam. Maybe he’ll be the next Bert Blyleven, and someone like Rich Lederer will take up his cause by promoting UZR-150 data along with his offense. Personally I’m on the fence with Andruw, but he’s close enough where I’m listening intently to any who want to make his case.

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Yankees to Sign Jones

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 7:44 pm 1 Response »
Jan 202011

Our long national nightmare is over! After a few weeks of speculating and negotiating, the Yankees are set to sign Andruw Jones to a deal. It’s going to pay Jones $2 million in base salary along with a possible $1.2 million that Jones can earn in incentives. The terms for said incentives have not been released.

$2 million is a little more than I thought Jones would get in salary, but not by much; I assumed he’d get about $1.5MM, so I wasn’t too far off. Still, that’s a fine price for Jones, who can play all three outfield spots–though he’s better at the corners at this point–and can hit lefties well. An added bonus is that Jones isn’t completely lost against right handed pitching.

There’s really nothing to dislike about this deal. It’s short term, it’s for small money, and it helps the team on the field immediately. Jones will be used to spell Brett Gardner and/or Curtis Granderson against tough left handers, depending on who needs time off, who’s hitting better against lefties, etc. Welcome to the Bronx, Andruw; we look forward to you donning the pinstripes!

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Musing About The Bench

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Jan 202011

The Yankees are on the cusp of signing veteran outfielder Andruw Jones to be the team’s first OF off of the bench. They signed Russell Martin to be the starting catcher for now, with Francisco Cervelli as the back up, and Jesus Montero on the way up. Jorge Posada will be the primary DH and could probably catch every once in a while. The team will also (likely) have Ramiro Pena and Eduardo Nunez to man the extra infield spots. Just so we can see it lined up:

OF–Andruw Jones
C–Francisco Cervelli
IF–Eduardo Nunez
IF–Ramiro Pena

Having two back up infielders may seem excessive, but the way the Yankees’ OF will be structured, I think it’s okay. All three starters are good enough both offensively and defensively that they won’t need many days off. Jones can spell one of Curtis Granderson or Brett Gardner against tough lefties and is also a balanced enough player that he wouldn’t need a replacement fielder after batting for one of those guys. The outfield is also, generally, younger than the infielders. Those guys–especially the guys on the left side–will need more days off for regular rest than Gradnerson, Gardner, or Nick Swisher will.

The big thing Joe Girardi will need to avoid is having the three weaker backups–Cervelli, Nunez, and Pena–in the lineup all at the same time. I’m sure at some point this will happen, likely because of late inning defensive replacement (LIDR) moves. I doubt that Girardi will ever put all three of them into the starting lineup in a game that matters.

The catching rotation will depend on two things: How Russell Martin and Jesus Montero start the season. For arbitration/free agency reasons, I’m sure the Yankees will look to keep Montero in Scranton-Wilkes Barre for at least the first month or two of the season. If Martin falters, though, and Montero mashes, we could see the Montero Era start sooner rather than later. That would do one of two things: send Francisco Cervelli back to the minor leagues or mean the end of Russell Martin as a Yankee.

Where we could see some interesting maneuvering is with Jorge Posada. Obviously, he can catch. He won’t be doing it much considering his spot as a full time DH, but he can do it. Perhaps some rest will do him well when he does get a chance to catch. Posada could also be called upon to play first when Mark Teixeira needs a day off, though I imagine that duty would fall to Nick Swisher first, with Andruw Jones taking RF for the day.

Aside from the eventual call up of Jesus Montero, the performance of Brandon Laird could also shape the bench as the season moves along. Laird’s been a third basemen for his entire minor league career, but played outfield in the Arizona Fall League this past season. If he can keep up the bat that’s advanced him through the minors, while playing non-statue defense at third and in the outfield in early 2011, we could see him swapped out for one of Pena or Nunez. Greg Golson could also make a play as an LIDR and we could easily see Colin Curtis get some playing time, too.

The Yankee bench may not be sparkling, but what team has a sparkling bench? No matter what, the bench in the Bronx will feature either young or cheap parts that will not be heard to replace. This, like the bullpen-building strategy, is one that has a lot of advantages, especially for a team like the Yankees.

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Yankees Close To Deal With Andruw Jones

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 1 Response »
Jan 172011

According to Tim Brown of Yahoo, the Yankees are closing in on a one year deal with free agent outfielder Andruw Jones. Here are the numbers that attract the Yankees, summarized by our own Matt Imbrogno:

In 2009, Jones was even against righties (.337 wOBA) and lefties (.336 wOBA). In 2010, there was a more pronounced split, but both numbers were good: .342 vs. RHP and .402 vs. LHP. 2009 is a closer representation of Jones’ platoon numbers, though. His career numbers are .355 vs. LHP and .352 vs. RHP.

As for his fielding, here is what Steve S. had to say:

The role they’d be looking for Jones to assume is to replace the Lefty masher that Thames was last year, but with better defense. Marcus Thames was magic with the bat last year, but was circus act in Left. While Jones is no longer thought of as the elite defender he was in his heyday as a CF, he can still play the corners adequately, if not better. Fangraphs gave him a robust 38.0 UZR/150 in 2009 with Texas, and 2.2 UZR/150 last season with the ChiSox.

Thames with better defense is an apt description of what you can expect from Jones. His superior defense is important now that the Yankees have a full time DH in Jorge Posada, as most of the available playing time for a bench bat on the Yankees will go to someone who can spell Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner in the outfield when the opposition starts a tough lefty. Jones should be equal to the task, and that makes him a strong fit for the empty 4th outfielder slot.

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Interest in Jones Growing

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 3 Responses »
Jan 112011

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees’ interest in Andruw Jones has grown and is now classified as “strong.” Steve S. delved into Jones earlier, so consider this an extension of the case for and/or against Jones.

The MLBTR post mentions that the Yankees want a right handed hitter who can handle left and center field. Can Jones still do that? More or less, yeah.

In 2009, Jones was even against righties (.337 wOBA) and lefties (.336 wOBA). In 2010, there was a more pronounced split, but both numbers were good: .342 vs. RHP and .402 vs. LHP. 2009 is a closer representation of Jones’ platoon numbers, though. His career numbers are .355 vs. LHP and .352 vs. RHP. Andruw’s fielding numbers have been solid, too. So, should the Yankees keep going with this? Should their interest be strong? Yes, it should.

Jones is exactly the type of bench outfielder that the Yankees need. As I noted in the comments section of Steve’s piece, the Yankees have cheap options like Greg Golson and Brandon Laird, but both of those represent extreme unknowns at this point. Golson hasn’t proven that he can hit yet–though to be fair, he hasn’t had much playing time. Laird is essentially an experiment in the outfield, though his bat is a little more advanced. As of right now, I’d pencil in Laird as a starter in Scranton to start the year and Golson to be the fifth outfielder.

It might be money saving to use Golson as the fourth outfielder and it would stick to the omnipresent desire to get “younger and more athletic” but I wouldn’t be comfortable with Golson being the first man off of the bench in the outfield. Jones fits the bill to a “t”. And while I’ve advocated for Scott Hairston in the past, I wouldn’t mind Jones one bit. If this interest is real, the only thing left to do is hammer out the contract details.

Per Baseball-Reference, the White Sox paid Jones $500K in 2010 (with the Dodgers giving Jones $3.2M). Jones did have a strong year–.364 wOBA, 126 wRC+, 1.8 WAR in 328 PA–so a raise would likely be in order. The Yankees signed Randy Winn for $1.1MM to be a bench outfielder and I think a similar deal would be perfect for Jones and the Yankees. It gives Jones a substantial raise, is about market value for bench outfielder, and it would also be cheap enough for the Yankees to eat the contract if Jones absolutely bombs like Winn did. Of course, Scott Boras is Andruw’s agent, so negotiations will likely not be easy, as Boras will be looking to capitalize on Jones’ solid 2010. But with the silence on the market for Jones, I don’t think his camp will have much leverage. This seems like a near perfect scenario.

Some will say that the Yankees need to focus on pitching right now and the Yankees shouldn’t be focusing on bench outfielders right now. Ironically, I’m sure many of these people are the same ones who said Brian Cashman couldn’t “multitask” when trying to sign Cliff Lee. Either way, this is what the Yankees should be doing: plugging small holes for now while waiting for a better scenario to acquire a pitcher. There are no starters worth signing. The Yankees don’t seem interested in signing another reliever (regardless of what Heyman says about them in re: Soriano). There is, however, a perfectly suitable fourth OF option out there in Andruw Jones.

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Yanks targeting Andruw Jones

Posted by Steve S. at 8:09 am 14 Responses »
Jan 082011

19 year old Jones belts one of his two HRs against the Yanks in the 1996 World Series

SIs Jon Heyman Tweeted yesterday that the Yanks are interested in FA outfielder Andruw Jones, and have begun talks with his agent Scott Boras. Here’s the report:

#yankees started talks w/ andruw jones, tho nothing’s close. seek righty hitting OF. concerned about thames defense.

It’s hard to believe that Jones is still just 33 years old, thinking way back to him playing against the Yanks in the 1996 World Series for the Braves as a 19 year old. A few years ago, between rumors of a lack of conditioning and an abysmal season for the Dodgers (.505 OPS) it appeared he was going to be out of baseball entirely. But he’s raised his stock since then, posting a few good seasons playing part time for the Rangers and White Sox.

The role they’d be looking for Jones to assume is to replace the Lefty masher that Thames was last year, but with better defense. Marcus Thames was magic with the bat last year, but was circus act in Left. While Jones is no longer thought of as the elite defender he was in his heyday as a CF, he can still play the corners adequately, if not better. Fangraphs gave him a robust 38.0 UZR/150 in 2009 with Texas, and 2.2 UZR/150 last season with the ChiSox. Facing Lefties, results have been mixed the past few seasons, but I think last year’s numbers are what caught the Yanks attention:

Split            G GS  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
vs RHP as RHB      81 226    192 42 10  1 11  25  6  2 30 54 .219 .327 .453 .781 87  11   2  0  2   0   3  .240    89   119
vs LHP as RHB      43 102     86 22  2  0  8  23  3  0 15 19 .256 .373 .558 .931 48   4   1  0  0   0   0  .237   124   148
vs LH Starter   33 30 122 103 20 25  3  1  9  23  3  0 18 23 .243 .361 .553 .914 57   5   1  0  0   0   1  .225   120   149
vs RH Starter   74 46 206 175 21 39  9  0 10  25  6  2 27 50 .223 .330 .446 .776 78  10   2  0  2   0   2  .248    88   112

The role the Yanks would have for him would be the same as Thames from last year, starting against Lefties for Granderson or Gardner, and coming off the bench when an opposing manager brings in a Lefty out of the bullpen. At age 33 and given the fact he’s no longer thought of as an everyday player, the first question that pops to my mind is whether or not he can still hit the fastball, since Jones has long been known as a dead red hitter. Fangraphs Pitch Type Values has him in positive territory against the fastball the past two years. Here’s his BR numbers facing Power/Finesse pitchers from last year:

Split         G GS  PA AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
vs. Power       48  74    60 15  3  1  3         8 12 17 .250 .392 .483  .875 29   2   2  0  0   0   1  .300   114   159
vs. avg.P/F     41  92    80 22  3  0  9        18 11 18 .275 .370 .650 1.020 52   5   1  0  0   0   2  .245   142   180
vs. Finesse     60 162   138 27  6  0  7        22 22 38 .196 .302 .391  .694 54   8   0  0  2   0   0  .211    69    82

Soft tossing junkballers give him the most trouble, and always have. Look again at his pitch type values I linked above, even in his prime he never hit anything that was off speed except for the occasional hanging curveball. But clearly he can still hit the hard throwers, and even thrives against them. For the role the Yanks would be looking at with him, he’s perfect. You can start him for Curtis Granderson or Brett Gardner facing a tough lefty and still maintain solid defense, or bring him off the bench for either player when an opposing manager calls in a LOOGY in a late inning situation. We know that the Yanks have some money to spend this year, and while Jones may have recovered his stock somewhat he still only earned 500K each of the past two years. The Yanks could triple that figure and land themselves a bargain. Sign me up.

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Yanks could still get Andruw?

Posted by Chris H. at 8:06 pm No Responses »
Feb 062009

From Ken Davidoff (Newsday):

Spoke with Brian Cashman a few minutes ago, and he confirmed Jon Heyman’s story that the Yankees had offered Andruw Jones a minor-league contract to compete with Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner _ or GarBrera, as a guy named Chip on my Live Chat today called the pair _ for the starting centerfield job. Jones’ agent Scott Boras turned down the offer, Cashman said.

If Jones and Boras can’t find a major-league contract _ and certainly, that seems like a longshot _ then the Yankees could get back into the mix for Andruw.

It’s a longshot, but Jones could still end up with the team. If it’s to battle with Melky and Brett Gardner for the starting CF job, I have no problem with that. As long as there is no guaranteed deal…

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