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Is Dellin Betances really injury prone?

Posted by Steve S. at 9:00 am 14 Responses »
Feb 122011

Whenever discussing the Yankee farm system, talk quickly gravitates to the Killer B’s. Manny Banuelos has been ranked at the head of the pack by most outlets, due to his age, poise, performance and handedness. Dellin ranks 2nd on most lists, with one notable exception. Yesterday, in his must-read recap of the Yankee farm system Mike Axisa ranked Andrew Brackman ahead of Dellin, despite a wide gap between the two in terms of performance. His main reason for the ranking is an oft-repeated tag that gets applied to Dellin, that he just can’t seem to stay healthy.

But is this true? Is his health history really that different than other Yankee prospects who don’t carry the ‘injury prone’ tag? Let’s compare Dellin’s track record and Andrew Brackman and see if this is justified. First, here’s Dellin’s minor league history:

Year                        Age           Tm      Lg   Lev Aff  W  L W-L%  ERA  G GS GF CG SHO SV    IP   H   R  ER HR  BB IBB  SO HBP BK WP   BF  WHIP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2006                         18      Yankees    GULF    Rk NYY  0  1 .000 1.16  7  7  0  0   0  0  23.1  14   5   3  1       7  27   1  1  2   90 0.900  5.4  0.4  2.7 10.4  3.86
2007                         19 StatenIsland    NYPL    A- NYY  1  2 .333 3.60  6  6  0  0   0  0  25.0  24  11  10  0      17  29   2  1  3  113 1.640  8.6  0.0  6.1 10.4  1.71
2008                         20      2 Teams   2 Lgs  A-Rk NYY  9  5 .643 3.92 25 24  0  0   0  0 121.2 100  64  53  9  62   0 141  11  3 11  529 1.332  7.4  0.7  4.6 10.4  2.27
2009                         21        Tampa    FLOR    A+ NYY  2  5 .286 5.48 11 11  0  0   0  0  44.1  48  29  27  2  27   0  44   2  0  3  206 1.692  9.7  0.4  5.5  8.9  1.63
2010                         22      2 Teams   2 Lgs A+-AA NYY  8  1 .889 2.11 17 17  0  0   0  0  85.1  53  25  20  4  22   0 108   4  0  6  333 0.879  5.6  0.4  2.3 11.4  4.91
5 Seasons             5 Seasons                      5 Seasons 20 14 .588 3.39 66 65  0  0   0  0 299.2 239 134 113 16 135   0 349  20  5 25 1271 1.248  7.2  0.5  4.1 10.5  2.59

Next, let’s look at Andrew Brackman’s track record in pro ball, including his College days. Here it is:

Year Team Lg Age Lvl Org W L ERA G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9
2005 NC State NCAA 19 NCAA - 4 0 2.09 10 7 0 0 0 0 43.0 32 13 10 0 18 43 3 1.16 6.7 0.0 3.8 9.0
2006 NC State NCAA 20 NCAA - 1 3 6.35 7 7 0 0 0 0 28.1 37 25 20 2 19 32 7 1.98 11.8 0.6 6.0 10.2
2007 NC State NCAA 21 NCAA - 6 4 3.81 13 13 1 0 0 0 78.0 78 41 33 7 37 74 12 1.47 9.0 0.8 4.3 8.5
2009 Charleston (Sc) SAL 23 A nyy 2 12 5.91 29 19 0 0 1 0 106.2 106 79 70 8 76 103 26 1.71 8.9 0.7 6.4 8.7
2010 Tampa FSL 24 A+ nyy 5 4 5.10 12 12 0 0 0 0 60.0 67 38 34 5 9 56 6 1.27 10.1 0.8 1.4 8.4
Trenton East 24 AA nyy 5 7 3.01 15 14 0 0 0 0 80.2 77 38 27 3 30 70 6 1.33 8.6 0.3 3.4 7.8
Minor League Totals 12 23 4.77 56 45 0 0 1 0 247 250 155 131 16 115 229 38 1.48 9.10 0.58 4.18 8.3

Why does Brackman escape the “injury prone” tag, yet it gets applied to Dellin? Brackman had a much more severe elbow injury (reconstructive/TJ) than Betances (ligament enhancement). Andrew got a late start in baseball, but looking at his first 5 seasons in professional baseball regardless of age he has logged less innings (247 IP) than Dellin (299 IP) did in his initial five. Not only has Dellin logged more innings, but he’s done so at a younger age. Further, he has dominated the minors in a way that Andrew Brackman has yet to do.  It is encouraging to see Brackman cross the 140 inning threshold, but the only reason why Betances hasn’t done so was the timing of his injury. Dellin missed parts of two seasons with his elbow injury, while Brackman had TJ surgery immediately after signing with the Yanks and missed the entire 2008 campaign.

One final misconception needs to be cleared up about Dellin Betances. From a BP interview last year:

DL: To close, is there anything you’d like people to know about you?

DB: Just one thing: Everybody thinks I was born in Brooklyn, but I was actually born in Washington Heights—my first home. Then I moved to the lower East Side, to downtown Manhattan, so the lower East Side is my home. You’re probably the first one who knows that. I mean, I love Brooklyn. I played in Brooklyn from age 13, I went to high school in Brooklyn, so it’s like my second home, but the lower East Side is where I started playing baseball. That is one thing that everybody should know. 

He’s from Manhattan, not Brooklyn.

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Comparing Top Prospect Lists

Posted by Eric Schultz at 5:59 pm 2 Responses »
Feb 112011

This is the exciting time of year when many respected prospect raters (and plenty of intelligent amateurs) release their preseason top 100 lists.  The Yankee farm system had a strong year that was reflected in the high rankings of many Yankee prospects on these various lists, and an organizational ranking around #5, depending who you ask (Jim Callis had them at #5 Keith Law was a little lower on them, and Frankie Piliere had them at #4).  I just wanted to take a moment to compare the placement of the Yankee farmhands on the top 100 lists from various sources, to see which prospects have more of a consensus, and which ones remain controversial.  The lists I am going to use are from Keith Law (from ESPN), John Manuel (Baseball America, only a top 50 list), Frankie Piliere  (a former scout, writes for AOL fanhouse), John Sickels (doesn’t have a full ranking, but uses letter grades and Project Prospect.  Let’s take a look at what these various sources have to say about the top Yankee prospects (apologies that my table looks like crap).

Keith Law John Manuel* Frankie Piliere Project Prospect John Sickels Average Standard Deviation
Jesus Montero 4 3 4 3 A 3.5 0.6
Manny Banuelos 12 20 13 34 B 19.75 10.1
Gary Sanchez 68 17 34 74 B+ 48.25 27.3
Dellin Betances 73 18 44 NR B+ 45 27.5
Andrew Brackman 88 NR 60 NR B- 74 N/A
Austin Romine NR NR NR 86 B- N/A N/A
David Adams NR NR NR 97 C+ N/A N/A

*Only a top 50 list

What can we learn from looking at these rankings?  A few things are pretty evident right away.  The consensus on Montero is pretty solid, with everyone having him in the 4-5 range (and he would likely rank similarly from Sickels, though there are 7 A-rated hitting prospects).

For Banuelos, too, the consensus is pretty strong.  Sickels and Project Prospect are the outliers here.  John has explained his concern about Banuelos having to do with durability questions, presumably due to his size.  To me, that’s a pretty ridiculous argument, as Manny has never had any arm problems, and has smooth mechanics.  As for Project Prospect, they still like the guy a lot, and I would almost have expected him to be a little higher, as they tend to have a very floor-heavy list (and I think Manny, size withstanding, is considered pretty safe as pitching prospects go).

Sanchez has wide variation, and this is understandable for a 17 year-old catcher in Rookie ball.  Some sources, such as Manuel and Piliere in particular, appear enamored with his ceiling and less concerned about his distance from the majors.  It’s a matter of philosophy with a guy like Sanchez, though it is worthy of note that Manuel and Piliere in  are often higher on Yankee prospects than most.  These guys will look smart if Sanchez pulls a Montero and continues to tear up full season ball, but they are also taking a risk on a guy who played most of the season in rookie ball at 17.  Project Prospect has him the lowest at 74, which I still think is a respectable rating for a guy with as little experience as Sanchez.

Betances too is exceptionally polarizing, ranked as high as 17 on Manuel’s list, and did not make Project Prospect’s top 100 list at all.  This too is a reflection of the sizable distance between Betances’ ceiling and floor, through his risk comes more from his injury history than a lack of experience.

Andrew Brackman made Klaw’s and Frankie’s list (and I would guess he would have been on a John Manuel top 100 list too), and the rating of 60 from Frankie is explained by the glowing scouting report that he wrote this summer.

Romine and Adams are both mentioned on Project Prospect’s list, and they share the common theme of being pretty close to major league ready with the bat, and good bets to stay at an up-the-middle defensive position.  It is understandable that Adams missed the other lists due to injury and Romine missed due to a mediocre 2nd half.

With rankings like these, it’s important not to sweat the small stuff, but overall, despite their variations, these lists paint a rosy picture of the Yankee farm, which bodes well for the organization’s future without the “Core Four.”

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My 2011 Prospect List

Posted by Sean P. at 3:00 pm 21 Responses »
Feb 102011

You're awfully big, Jesus. (Photo-NJ.com)

Here it is folks:

  1. Jesus Montero
  2. Gary Sanchez
  3. Manuel Banuelos
  4. Dellin Betances
  5. Andrew Brackman
  6. Slade Heathcott
  7. Adam Warren
  8. Austin Romine
  9. Graham Stoneburner
  10. Hector Noesi
  11. David Adams
  12. Jose Ramirez
  13. JR Murphy
  14. Cito Culver
  15. Brandon Laird
  16. Corban Joseph
  17. Mason Williams
  18. Bryan Mitchell
  19. David Phelps
  20. Rob Segedin
  21. Brett Marshall

That’s right, 21 prospects, not 20, or 30: 21. I settled on 21 because I feel pretty good about 21 names. I’m more of an upside/ceiling type man myself. I think in any ranking though you have to consider closeness to the majors and the fact that a 3 or 4 type starter is pretty damn valuable these days. If you’re wondering why Eduardo Nunez is not on this list than you obviously don’t follow me on Twitter. I tend to like athletic, up the middle talents who show a lot of tools and potential. Angelo Gumbs was a near miss for me. Let me know what you think and disagree with of course- I look forward to a lively and profanity riddled comment section threatening me with great physical harm and/or death.

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Frank Piliere Releases Top 100 MLB Prospects List

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 11 Responses »
Feb 102011

Frank Piliere of AOL Fanhouse released his top-100 MLB prospects yesterday. The Yankees came out pretty big.

#4 Jesus Montero: “He still has critics who like to point to his defense but there is just about no one who will criticize Montero’s bat. Will he be a good defensive catcher? No, but he has shown enough improvement to be an adequate defender. That combined with a potentially special bat make for an impressive total package.”

#13 Manuel Banuelos: “Some like to pretend Banuelos came from nowhere in 2010. Well, he didn’t. He picked up a couple ticks on his fastball and lives at 93-95 now, but even before the spike he was armed with two good secondary offerings and plus command.”

#34 Gary Sanchez: “Most organizations would sign up for having Sanchez as their top prospect, but he doesn’t even get the title of top catching prospect in his organization. That may soon change, however, as Sanchez’s bat rivals Montero’s at the same age and he looks like he’ll be a better defender.”

#44 Dellin Betances: “If not for his injury history, Betances would likely be toward the top 20 in this list. The owner of a 93-96 mph fastball, a plus curveball and a rapidly improving changeup, the towering right-hander has all the components you look for in a frontline starter.”

#60 Andrew Brackman (No Commentary)

And in his online chat, every other question was about Yankee prospects. On Banuelos:

[Comment From Jay CT]
What is Banuelos’s ceiling, and what ML pitcher could you compare him to?

Frankie Piliere: You know I get this question a lot. I use to not agree with the Johan Santana stuff but it’s probably the most accurate one if you have to pick a current big leaguer. He’s similar in size, velocity, and command to the Santana of a few years ago. The changeup is not as unhittable as Santana’s and he isn’t the pure strikeout machine Santana was. But there’s definitely some comparable aspects. I think Banuelos is a number one in the making. Not to say I told you so but I screamed about him last year at this time. People like to just talk about the new velocity but A. his velocity didn’t spike as much as people say. He went from 90-92, 93 to 92-95. and B. his game goes far beyond just raw stuff

[Comment From T-Dubs]
Assuming both had perfect health, is Betances a better prospect than Banuelos?

Frankie Piliere: Lots of Yankee questions. That’s difficult. I might be in the minority but I still think I take Banuelos. I absolutely love Betances’ stuff but the more bust proof guys are the guys with a great feel for pitching and that’s definitely Banuelos.

[Comment From Kim Last]
Would you take Banuelos or Hellickson?

Frankie Piliere: There’s a battle of two guys I absolutely love. Long term give me the lefty with the power stuff. Banuelos

On Jesus Montero:

[Comment From Ben Kabak]
How overrated is Montero? He won’t even catch.

Frankie Piliere: I’ll go with….not overrated. Let’s say for argument’s sake he doesn’t catch. He’s still an elite bat. And, I think he will catch so that’s why he’s up there on the list.

[Comment From Trevorlon]
Do you think the Yankees will move Montero to the outfield in the future or is he a dh?

Frankie Piliere: I’m sticking with him as a catcher. I know I’m in the minority but I’ve seen him enough to see improvement and enough to be an adequate defender.

On Gary Sanchez:

[Comment From Zak]
Gary Sanchez was 25th on your list midway through the season and he was bumped back, even though he finished strong, IMO. Was that due to overrating him on your previous list or something else?

Frankie Piliere: Just a mild adjustment. Now there are 2010 draftees to consider, and I saw more of the new players in instructs and the AFL. Certain no drop in stock for Sanchez. He’s as good as ever.

On Austin Romine:

[Comment From Zak]
Thanks for doing a chat! Austin Romine was 15th midseason on your list and no where to be found, unless my eyes are bad on your top 100 list. I got to see him and it just looked like he was flat out exhausted to me. Is there another reason why he was bumped off so badly?

Frankie Piliere: Lots of things can change huh? Yeah, with all the new draftees considered now and seeing guys more, I just started slowly sliding Romine back. He was one of the final few cuts. He definitely wore down I think. The 15 ranking could have been reactionary on my part because I don’t feel he’s dropped THAT much in status. But he’s slipped a bit, no doubt.

On Dellin Betances:

[Comment From jake h]
You are super high on Dellin. Do you see him as a starting pitcher?

Frankie Piliere: I definitely see him starting. Three average or better offerings and improving command.

On Adam Warren:

[Comment From Zak]
Adam Warren is one of my personal favorite from the Yankees farm system, seems like he doesn’t get too much love as he’s always grouped with Phelps, DJ Mitchell, etc as a backend of the rotation starter. I’m not saying he’s front line, but isn’t he at least worthy of a middle of the rotation type? He’s got good stuff!

Frankie Piliere: I like Warren better than the two others you mentioned. You’re right that he probably doesn’t get quite enough love. He’s not a finesse guy. He runs up into the mid 90s at times and relies on that fastball. But his secondary stuff continues to improve. He’s a middle of the rotation starter.

On Andrew Brackman:

Comment From Trevorlon]
What’s the ceiling of Andrew Brackman and where does he project as a starter?

Frankie Piliere: Let this serve as another opportunity for me to say i was wrong about Brackman. I was very down on him going into the season and he really resurrected himself. He’s a tough guy to project though. Still a bit inconsistent and at that size I think repeating his delivery will always be a challenge. I’d say he’s a #3 just because his command will never be completely consistent.

He offers a strong defense of Montero’s defense, plus great words about Betances, Banuelos, and even Adam Warren.

This is already a long post, so I won’t say much more, except one thing. I know that a lot of readers get a little worried that the powerful optimism about the Yankee farm system is just the product of some collective Yankee blogger Zeitgeist. Piliere is both one of the smartest guys out there publishing about prospects and has no vested interest for or against the Yankees. And he just compared Manuel Banuelos to Johan Santana. Think about that one.

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Brackman is not ready yet

Posted by Steve S. at 7:00 am 7 Responses »
Feb 082011

Pinstripes will have to wait

We all know the Yankees are in desperate need of a 5th starter. Make that 4th starter. Actually, nobody likes AJ Burnett as their #3 …well, you get the point. Some have suggested Andrew Brackman as a possible solution. Brian Cashman has mentioned him as one of the names who will be competing for the 4th/5th starter spot this spring. In a recent post, Mark Smith of IATMS formed a plan where Andrew starts until late in the season and moves to the bullpen later in the year to limit his innings. Sounds good in theory, he has more upside than Freddy Garcia, Sergio Mitre or Bartolo Colon. Among the group of AAA contenders for a rotation slot of Ivan Nova, David Plelps and Hector Noesi, I think its safe to say Brackman’s ceiling is the highest (and that’s not just because he’s 6’10″). He’s already on the 40 man roster, even had a brief MLB call up late last year, although he didn’t see any game action. Prospect watchers have been saying good things about Andrew. Frank Piliere of MLB Fanhouse was drooling over him in a midseason scouting report last August. In the must read NoMaas interview with BAs John Manuel, he praises Brackman for having “More feel for the breaking ball than anyone in the Yankees system” and “If he decides to commit to a slider, he could have a hellacious pitch” after flashing some 07 Joba-esque 90 MPH sliders in the Eastern League last year.

But he’s not ready yet. Not according to Yankee farm director Mark Newman. Baseball America’s George King recently sat down with him and discussed  Brackman. Two comments really jumped out at me:

“His secondary stuff is good and he is throwing strikes,” Newman said. “We feel confident if he pitches out of the pen. If the changeup develops the way it has been going, we feel he can pitch in the rotation.”

So the Yanks aren’t even sure he’s going to be a starter yet at the big league level, much less be ready for a call up to the show. He’s missing plenty of bats (9.1 career SO/9) so needing the changeup and categorizing him as a MLB ready reliever may indicate the Yanks feel he needs a weapon against MLB lefty batters. He follows:

Asked if the miserable (09) season shook the club’s confidence in Brackman, Newman said it didn’t, but that wasn’t the case for the pitcher.

“He wondered about it,” Newman said. “We tried to reassure him that we understood what he had been through.”

His confidence was down after struggling to return after TJ surgery. He made strides last year, but has yet to really dominate the minors the way his size and stuff would suggest he can. Clearly, he’s not a finished product, and spring training ‘competition’ notwithstanding I don’t see the Yanks breaking camp with him on the 25 man roster. The minors are there for development, and rushing someone who’s not ready will only hurt Brackman and the Yanks long term. If Brackman blows through AAA this year, and shows he’s made the progress the Yanks are looking for, maybe a June call up will be in order. But that needs to happen first before we see the big righty in pinstripes.

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Best Case Scenario: Fifth Starter

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Feb 072011

Late last week I played around with a WAR spread sheet and projected the 2011 rotation while comparing it to the 2010 rotation. I was pleased by the results since they weren’t as ugly as we may’ve expected. Consider it riding that relatively high feeling, but I’m going to get a bit more bold. I’m going to take all those random fifth starter candidates–Sergio Mitre, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Hector Noesi, Andrew Brackman, and David Phelps and project their performance in a different way.

I’m going to keep their CAIRO projected FIPs the same, but I’m going to tinker with the innings. Instead of changing the projected performance, I’m going to change the duration of that performance. I’ll take whatever FIP that CAIRO gives me and “extrapolate” it out to the same number of innings the Yankees got out of their “fifth” starter last year. I designate fifth starter as the guy with the fifth highest innings pitched total. In 2010, that was Andy Pettitte and his 129 innings. Performance wise, Pettitte obviously wasn’t the fifth best starter, but we’re just talking innings here. I call this post the “best case scenario” because if the Yankees get 129 innings out of any of these guy’s, it’d be damn near miraculous.

Sergio Mitre:
Actual Projection: 4.69 FIP in 72 IP = 0.7 WAR
Extrapolated Projection: 4.69 FIP in 129 IP = 1.3 WAR

Ivan Nova:
Actual: 5.04 FIP/116 IP/0.8 WAR
Extrapolated: 5.04 FIP/129 IP/0.8 WAR

Freddy Garcia:
Actual: 4.90 FIP/31 IP/0.2 WAR
Extrapolated: 4.90 FIP/129 IP/1.0 WAR

Bartolo Colon (No CAIRO projection for Colon, using Marcel instead):
Actual: 4.60 FIP/66 IP/0.7 WAR
Extrapolated: 4.60 FIP/129 IP/1.4 WAR

Hector Noesi:
Actual: 4.91 FIP/81 IP/0.6 WAR
Extrapolated: 4.91 FIP/129 IP/1.0 WAR

Andrew Brackman:
Actual: 5.26 FIP/63 IP/0.3 WAR
Extrapolated: 5.26 FIP/129 IP/0.6 WAR

David Phelps:
Actual: 5.05 FIP/94 IP/0.6 WAR
Extrapolated: 5.05 FIP/129 IP/0.8 WAR

Based on these ridiculously rough calculations, the best we’re probably looking at from the Yankee (nominal) fifth starter is anywhere from 0.6 WAR (Brackman) to 1.4 WAR (Colon, which is probably the most out there of these projections). Considering what the Yankees got out of their fifth starter(s) last year in terms of performance, I would sign up for that. Javier Vazquez was under replacement level by fWAR (-0.2) in 2010 so anything would be an improvement. I’m not confident in saying that any one of these guys will necessarily reach the arbitrary 129 IP mark, but if it happens, I’ll be dancing.

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Projecting the 2011 Minor League Rotations

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 7 Responses »
Feb 032011

With the off season winding down, I figure that it is about time to see where everybody is going to wind up. The Yankees manage to emerge from a slow post-2011 off season while hanging on to all of their top pitching prospects. I have prepared this graphic in order to attempt to project where they will all end up.

Brian Cashman wasn’t kidding when he said that our upper minor league rotations are full. The Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre Yankees and Double-A Trenton Thunder will have, by some measures, 10 prospects to fill 10 rotation spots. Craig Heyer and Shaeffer Hall are certainly the runts of the group, but they are a big improvement on the years when these kinds of guys took those spots. There is some downside to that of course – players won’t really be able to move up to a higher level in the middle of the season without an injury clearing the way. And of course, an injury means that a valuable prospect just went down. Last season saw guys like Dellin Betances and Manuel Banuelos make unexpectedly quick rises through the minor leagues. That won’t be as easy for Brett Marshall and Jose Ramirez, and it could keep a strongly performing Graham Stoneburner stuck at Double-A. Plus, if Nova gets bumped down to the minors, it throws the whole system into disarray. Still, that’s not a bad problem to have.

Scranton gets to start off with Andrew Brackman, Hector Noesi and David Phelps. Each has their own little test. Brackman has to continue to pitch within his mechanics like he did last year, since this is his last year with any options. David Phelps has to prove that his stuff plays to advanced hitters. Hector Noesi has a similar story – he needs to show whether or not his control of the strike zone holds up as he nears the majors. For Noesi, it will be about defining whether or not he can be a Major League innings eater or a serious impact starting pitcher. Adam Warren needs to follow up his standout performance at Trenton last season with another one, or start to face a possible bullpen conversion. D.J. Mitchell needs to learn to get lefties out, or he will be the first starting pitcher converted to the bullpen after Dellin Betances has a 15 strikeout game.

The story in Trenton is no doubt about Banuelos and Betances. Betances needs to stay healthy. He hasn’t had a truly healthy season since 2008, and smart watchers are very concerned that he’ll continue to be brittle. Height issues aside, Banuelos has none of those concerns. We’ll be looking for him to reestablish the amazing velocity he showcased last season, and continue to put up eye-popping numbers. Graham Stoneburner both has to follow up a phenomenal breakout season and deal with the struggle of being overshadowed by some many prospects above him. No matter how well he does, Stoneburner will probably not budge from the Trenton rotation all year. Too many guys are ahead of him. Heyer and Hall aren’t great prospects, but Heyer did pull off a 0.6 BB/9 last year, so who knows. Maybe he’s pretty good.

Brett Marshall could make Tampa very exciting this year. He’s a better prospect than people realize, and certainly made an impression after coming back from surgery last season. His challenge will be to strike out more batters with his 95-97 mph fastball, since he has averaged just 7.0 K/9 in 3 minor league seasons. Jose Ramirez joins him in the underrated category, and a strong performance could see him competing with Marshall to bump one of Hall or Heyer from Trenton. Jairo Heredia is still seeking redemption behind them, but hasn’t recovered well from shoulder issues. Sean Black may be the next David Phelps, but I know nothing about Kelvin Perez.

In Charleston, we’re searching for a breakout. Bryan Mitchell is one of the bigger sleepers in the organization. He profiles a lot like Brett Marshall, with wild, untamed flamethrowing stuff and at times a killer curveball. Varce and Burawa are experienced college arms who could climb up the ladder quickly, and both Richardson and O’Brien have some potential to be decent. Its a solid bunch, even if none have become all that exciting yet. However, a strong performance could put any of them on the map as future MLB prospects, especially Mitchell.

Of course, these are just projections. Adam Warren could be bumped from the Scranton rotation in favor of a veteran (one of Colon or Garcia perhaps) or Ivan Nova. On the lower end, the Yankees could push experienced players like Zach Varce or Daniel Burawa to Tampa, while cutting either Jairo Heredia or Kelvin Perez. One of the EST starters could impress in spring training and start in Charleston. Burawa could also be one of several to be converted to relief pitching along with D.J. Mitchell and Taylor Morton.

Which rotation is the most interesting to pay attention to? Obviously, its a contest between Trenton and Scranton, though Marshall and Ramirez could make some noise down in Tampa. Scranton has 5 legitimate prospects, while Trenton is kind of dragging along their bottom two. Still, I go with Trenton, where Betances and Banuelos will put on a show two days out of every 5.

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Projecting the Rotation

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Feb 022011

Without a hint of hesitation, I would say that the starting rotation is the biggest hole the 2011 Yankees will have. It consists of one bonafide ace/workhorse/gamer/whatever buzzword there is for pitchers in CC Sabathia. After that, there’s no shortage of question marks. Let’s rewind to last year for a second.

The Yankees had eight men take the hill to start a game in 2010: Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, Dustin Moseley, and Javier Vazquez. Sparing the long reminiscence, we could call 2010 a mixed bag in terms of success for the Yankee starters. CC Sabathia had a typical CC Sabathia season. Andy Pettitte was great, but was injured and threw under 130 innings. Mitre enjoyed a small sample of (probably unsustainable) success; Moseley was replacement level as expected; Nova showed some potential. Phil Hughes looked like he was starting to realize his considerable upside, though he did slide a bit after an impressive first month. Vazquez and Burnett? Looking at their collective performance in 2010 is like looking at the light that came from the Ark of the Covenant, only it wasn’t the power of God but of unmatched suckitude.

All told, the 2010 starters for the Yankees tossed 973 innings and racked up 10.60 fWAR. Can the 2011 rotation match or beat that? A lot of our gut reactions might say “no” considering how poorly we’ve been “conditioned” to view the forthcoming rotation. So I plugged some Yankee projections into the pitching WAR spreadsheet from Beyond the Box Score (glove slap Mike Axisa) to see what would come out the other end.

I intended this post to only be about Ivan Nova, but I thought why not expand it to the whole rotation? After all, I like to think I live by the “go big or go home” motto that a high school friend spouted perpetually. I used nine starters, the nine I think are most likely to make starts for the 2011 Yankees. I took their CAIRO projected innings pitched and FIPs and plugged them into the above spreadsheet and here’s what I got:

CC Sabathia: 210 IP w/3.68 FIP = 4.7 WAR
Phil Hughes: 172 IP w/4.17 FIP = 2.8 WAR
A.J. Burnett: 187 IP w/4.50 FIP = 2.3 WAR
Ivan Nova: 116 IP w/5.04 FIP = 0.8 WAR
Sergio Mitre: 72 IP w/4.69 FIP = 0.7 WAR
Freddy Garcia: 31 IP w/4.90 FIP = 0.2 WAR
Andrew Brackman: 63 IP w/5.26 FIP = 0.3 WAR
David Phelps: 94 IP w/5.05 FIP = 0.6 WAR
Hector Noesi: 80 IP w/4.91 FIP = 0.6 WAR

Before we get to tabulating the results, I want to review my methodology a bit here. I kept each pitcher’s leverage at 1.0 to make things even. I didn’t change the CAIRO innings projections at all, even though some of them might be unrealistic. I don’t think Phelps (or Noesi or maybe even Brackman) will get that many innings and I don’t think Garcia will get that few. I’m also assuming in this that every inning pitched by these guys is as a starting pitcher, which may not be likely for the “prospect trio” and Sergio Mitre. That said, some of this stuff isn’t THAT far out of the realm of possibility, so let’s get to the results.

These projections give us 1025 innings pitched by Yankee starters, in which they rack up 12.9 WAR. Both of those numbers beat the 2010 version of Yankee starting pitching. We must note that the 2011 projection includes one more pitcher than the 2010 “rotation” did so I adjusted this with a rough WAR/IP calculation. The 2010 starters were worth 0.0109 WAR/IP and the 2011 rotation projects to be worth 0.0126 WAR/IP.

The rotation was 11th in the American League in fWAR by starters in 2010 and if we plug the projected 2011 rotation into that list, it would have the 9th best SP fWAR in the AL. That’s still below the league median, but, again, better than what the team had in 2010.

We’ve been very doom-and-gloom about the possible rotation for 2011, but these numbers (that, yes, we should take with a grain of salt because they’re projections), should help allay our fears just a little bit. While it seems the 2011 rotation might not quite be league average as a whole, it could still be a two win improvement from 2010. With the added bullpen strength and the still strong lineup, the Yankees look like they’ll have a formidable team in 2011.

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The Readiness of the Killer B's

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 8 Responses »
Jan 212011

ESPN New York writer Wallace Matthews and I had a civil back and forth Wednesday and Thursday over the readiness of the Yankees’ trio of starting pitching prospects Manny Banuelos, Andrew Brackman, and Dellin Betances. Matthews indicated, with no real justification, that the Yankees feel both Banuelos and Betances are more ready to contribute than Brackman is. Matthews indicated that this isn’t his personal feeling, but the organization’s. Either way, I’ve got to disagree here.

Betances and Brackman are both on the 40-man roster as of right now, and Betances has more innings pitched, but he’s also been in the system longer. It’s worth nothing that Betances has 299 minor league innings since 2006 while Brackman has 247.1 between just 2009 and 2010. Banuelos, for the record, has 215.2.

In terms of innings, we’ve got to give the advantage to Brackman, and that’s the biggest factor when thinking about readiness for the Major Leagues. Since having Tommy John Surgery, Brackman’s had back to back years of 100+ innings pitched (106.2 in ’09, 140.2 in ’10). Betances has done that just one time (121 IP in ’08), as has Banuelos (109 in ’09; though he did have 89.2 innings in 2010, including his stint in the AzFL).

Of course, pitching the innings isn’t the only thing that counts; it matters where those innings are pitched. Brackman pitched 80.2 innings in AA Trenton in 2010 (60.0 for A+ Tampa), while Betances and Banuelos only got brief stints (14.1 IP and 15.1 IP respectively) in the Eastern League.

I’d imagine that both Betances and Banuelos will start the year with Trenton, while Brackman will start the year with AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. This, along with the innings and experience factors, means that Brackman is the closest to giving the Yankees any sort of meaningful contribution.

Of course, we can’t talk about their readiness without talking about the awesome potential each one of these guys has. Brackman and Betances are HUGE and have great velocity. Banuelos, a small lefty, has every bit of upside that the other two have. Of the three, I’d say Banuelos has the best chance of the three to make it as a starter in the bigs. He’s got time to add size and the fact that the at least pitched in AA at 19 is an accomplishment to be praised. He’s definitely moving faster than the other two are, but Brackman’s still closest. If we see any of these guys in the Bronx in 2011, it’s going to be Brackman.

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Comparing the Yankees To Other Likely Top-6 Farm Systems

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 7 Responses »
Dec 312010

Yesterday, we learned that Jim Callis regards the Yankees as a top-6 farm system in baseball. Accompanying them are probably going to be Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Cleveland and possibly two of  Minnesota, Atlanta and Oakland. Among this group, how to the Yankees rank?

At the top of each organization, the Yankees probably have the best prospect. Jesus Montero’s main competition for the title probably includes Jeremy Hellickson in Tampa and the Kansas City trio of Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers, and Mike Moustakas. I think Montero is a pretty clear choice  over that group – Hellickson is a really good prospect, but probably not a perennial all-star like Montero should be. Hosmer is a 1st baseman without a ton of power (though great at everything else), Montero will hit far better than Myers, and Moustakas is the worst player of the bunch. Montero’s your best player here.

Right below them, the Yankees rank two of Manuelos, Brackman, Sanchez, Betances, and Noesi at spots 2 and 3. No one in the group compares favorably to Kansas City’s dynamic group, led by the previously mentioned Wil Myers and Mike Moustakas. Tampa Bay’s Desmond Jennings and Matt Moore are clearly better than any of them too. However, the Yankees definitely have an edge up on Cleveland’s Alex White and Jason Kipinis, and no other system really comes close. This same advantage extends to the Yankees all the way down through their top six players. None of the teams has that kind of impact player depth in their farm system.

I really can’t judge the depth of the none-Yankee systems after that, as I’m not too familiar with the players. But I do know that the Yankees have the best group of prospects that they’ve ever had in the 8-15 rankings, headlined by guys like Slade Heathcott, Cito Culver, Brandon Laird, Adam Warren, and Graham Stoneburner. I have trouble imagining that many systems, if any, are that deep.

What’s the conclusion? The Yankees should not be ranked lower than 3rd, behind Tampa and Kansas City, in the overall organizational rankings. That would be the highest ranking that the Yankees have managed in recent memory (they ranked 5th in 2007 and 2002), and a huge step up from their 22nd overall panned ranking last season, which I think BA may regard as a mistake at this point. The Yankees do it on the backs of a whole lot of depth and Jesus Montero, who should yet again be a top-5 prospect in all of baseball. Even BA is starting to accept that Montero will stick at catcher for the time being in the majors, and everything knows how well he can hit.

Very encouraging stuff.

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