“It’s more than an honor to hit behind A-Rod and in front of Posada,” Cano said. “That means I’m going to have to step it up early in the season.”
Those were Robinson Cano’s words when talking about hitting fifth in the potent, loaded, and likely to be dangerous offense. This will be a relatively new experience for Robinson, who has amassed only 290 plate appearances in the five spot, hitting to an unimpressive .774 OPS.
Girardi’s move to put Robbie in this prominent spot in the batting order represents a sort of “sink-or-swim” position to Cano. I’ve always said that Cano should bat in the lower part of the order so the Yankees’ high-on base guys could be on in front of him. Then, Cano’s power could drive them in. Of course, this works in theory, but Cano’s troubles with runners on base are well noted. By being placed in the fifth spot, Cano is being asked to improve on his relatively poor numbers.
It is worth noting that Cano’s BABIPs with runners on base (.294), RISP (.267), and high leverage situations (.271) are lower than his career BABIP of .321. This means a combination of two things; it means that Robinson is experiencing a little bit of bad luck and is probably hitting the ball a little bit weaker in those situations.
Looking at Robinson’s batted ball splits in the different leverage situations, we can see some interesting things. First, he has his lowest (among the three leverage categories) line drive percentage, 17.7%. This tells us he’s not hitting the ball with as much authority as he does in other situations–his career LD% is 19.3.
The next two items blend together and reinforce the point about line drive percentage. In the high-leverage situations, Cano has his lowest ground ball percentage (46.8) and highest fly ball percentage (35.5), as well as his lowest HR/Fly Ball ball percentage (6.4). It would seem that when Robbie is hitting in high leverage situations, he’s not getting as on top of the ball as he should be, and this is leading to a higher amount of outs.
Robinson also makes slightly less contact when he hits in high leverage situations. His career strikeout percentage is 11.7% and goes up to 14.6% when in high leverage situations. While both of those numbers are good–they’re well below the league average strikeout percentage–the uptick in strikeouts with men on is concerning.
As I’m not a batting coach and I haven’t dissected hours and hours of video, I can’t reliably prescribe something to fix Mr. Cano’s ills. What I suggest is likely to be the “Spark Notes” version of what hitting coach Kevin Long will say: focus on making contact and make sure you’re swinging down on the ball.
Like Girardi, Long, and hopefully all of you reading this, I have every confidence that Cano will right himself in situations with runners on and will come through this year. Remember, he’s driven in at least 70 runs each season for the last four seasons with these poor numbers with runners on and high leverage situations. With just a bit of improvement at the plate–and a small up-turn in luck–Cano could potentially drive in 100 runs.
With the addition of Curtis Granderson and the loss of Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon, some pundits have claimed that if the 2010 Yanks will have one Achilles heel heading into next season, it will be facing the Lefty starter. But is that true? Off the top of my head I know that Nick Johnson is actually better against Lefties, and despite last year the switch-hitting Randy Winn has held his own from both sides of the plate.
To check to see if this is accurate, I’m going to make up a lineup with each player’s numbers facing lefthanders. I’ll use career OBP and OPS so the table setters and power guys are all represented fairly. Don’t get too hung up on the lineup order, I’m just working around Girardi’s recent comments that 1, 3 and 4 are set and putting the power guys in order without paying much attention to going R/L.
1-Derek Jeter (R) .409 OBP .909 OPS
2-Nick Johnson (L) .424 OBP .863 OPS
3-Mark Teixeira (S) .394 OBP .931 OPS
4-Alex Rodriguez (R) .392 OBP .968 OPS
5-Jorge Posada (S) .381 OBP .877 OPS
6-Nick Swisher (S) .395 OBP .834 OPS
7-Robinson Cano (L) .341 OBP .794 OPS
8-Randy Winn (S) .332 OBP .758 OPS/Brett Gardner (L) .310 OBP .627 OPS
9-Curtis Granderson (L) .270 OBP .614 OPS
The bottom the the order clearly suffers, but last years most frequent #8 and #9 hitters were some combination of Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and Jose Molina. So it’s tough to argue the drop off from the 2009 team will be very steep. To start the season, I think the Yanks will sit Gardner facing Lefties and look to give Winn some ABs until Brett proves that he can play everyday, which he hasn’t done yet. Jamie Hoffman is a possibility facing Lefties as well, but I have to think the more experienced Winn will get the nod.
Granderson will start games against Lefties, but will probably get lifted in late-inning situations with men on base. But otherwise, they’ll give him every chance to get past his struggles and see if Long can fix his approach. Who that pinch hitter will be is an interesting question. Winn starts facing Lefties, so it won’t be Brett Gardner. Hoffman? We’re not even sure he makes the team. My best guess is that Girardi will look to give Posada days off against Left handed pitching and will use him as a bat off the bench. That would mean Francisco Cervelli ([R] .345 OBP .724 OPS in just 30 PA) starts most games facing Lefties.
All totaled, here’s your likely starting lineup with a Lefthander on the mound:
1-Derek Jeter (R) .409 OBP .909 OPS
2-Nick Johnson (L) .424 OBP .863 OPS
3-Mark Teixeira (S) .394 OBP .931 OPS
4-Alex Rodriguez (R) .392 OBP .968 OPS
5-Nick Swisher (S) .395 OBP .834 OPS
6-Robinson Cano (L) .341 OBP .794 OPS
7-Randy Winn (S) .332 OBP .758 OPS
8-Francisco Cervelli [R] .345 OBP .724 OPS
9-Curtis Granderson (L) .270 OBP .614 OPS
With Posada getting a day off and available as a pinch hitter.
This morning, John Sickels posted an article in which he suggested that sabermetric analysis has become too granular to be interesting and fresh:
The newest stuff is becoming so granular that I’m having problems making sense of it. I’m a humanities guy, and the most advanced math is beyond my ability to completely comprehend. My personal opinion is that the many of the newest metrics (at least in regards to hitting and pitching) are just more complicated ways to say the same basic truths…..
But I’m finding that as I read the most advanced sabermetric stuff regarding major league players, my eyes glaze over and I start to get the grad school feeling again: why am I reading this? I’m not enjoying it. I want to watch a baseball game.
So am I just entering my dotage prematurely? Or is advanced sabermetric analysis becoming so specialized that no one but physics and math majors can understand it, leaving us humanities majors behind, let alone the average fan? If that is true, what can be done about it? I don’t mean stopping research; obviously it needs to go forward. But I mean, how do we find ways to disseminate the new knowledge and make it comprehensible for the non-math folks among us? How do we integrate and explain the new knowledge?
This article has garnered plenty of interest in the sabermetric community, with two writers at THT responding. First, Pat Andriola:
So when you say that they are “more complicated ways to say the same basic truths,” you are, to an extent, 100% correct. However, the questions that remain are: 1) how much an improvement are we gaining over the basic truths and 2) how valuable are those marginal improvements? Maybe you find these advances boring and trite, but many others (such as myself) don’t. I’m sure there are front offices and analysts that clamor over the newest posts at Fangraphs and The Hardball Times, just like I’m sure you find the latest breakdown of a hot prospect’s swing riveting. These are, ultimately, questions of what gives us the most utility (or satisfaction), and are completely subjective.
Pat is right on the money here, as I have spoken to a number of people within front offices, including one GM, who said that they follow Fangraphs and THT religiously, attempting to get an edge in data analysis and evaluation. These teams find these marginal improvements important, hoping that they provide even the slightest edge over their competition. If the clubs find this sort of analysis important, then it makes sense for an interested fan to be interested as well.
The second article, from Dan Novick, does a fantastic job addressing the idea that sabermetric analysis is boring and too technical:
Baseball writing on the internet is a meritocracy. Sabermetrics isn’t spreading because we say it is. It is spreading because there is an increasing number of fans that find it useful. There is no such thing as “required reading.” If you don’t find a particular aspect of sabermetrics useful anymore, there won’t be any negative repercussions should you choose not to read it.
I could not have said it better myself. If you are a Yankee fan and do not like sabermetrics, you can skip over that sort of article here or at RAB, or ignore those sites entirely. There are so many options and forums for discussion that a fan could likely stick to the most basic of sabermetric precepts and still find a place where he or she can have a reasonable discussion about the sport, and have a fairly decent understanding of value and related concepts. If you are a creator of content, you can ignore sabermetrics as well, and cater to a less stat-obsessed crowd. No one is being forced to use sabermetrics. If you do not like them, just ignore them. It really is that simple.
Sickels is not “anti-stat,” and I doubt that he would suggest people ignore sabermetrics entirely. He was simply raising a reasonable point. Do you agree with him?
Critics of the Yanks in recent years would tag them as an ‘all or nothing’ team, a bully offensive group that could score in the regular season against weak starters and middle relief, but would go to sleep in the playoffs facing the better pitchers. Is this true of the 09 Yanks? Or is it just an outdated tag the Yanks have yet to live down, since they missed the post season last year for the first time since 1994?
Let’s clear one thing up right away. Runs are runs, it doesn’t matter how you score them, they all count just the same. But the question is are the Yanks too reliant on scoring via the long ball, which in all probability they won’t be able to do as much of in October facing shorter bullpens and better starters. Run scoring generally plummets in October, so the ability to scratch out a run here and there can be critical. Good playoff teams are flexible, and can score runs in multiple ways. Playing A-B-C Baseball one inning and then going deep the next. Joe Girardi put an emphasis on getting younger and more athletic this past off season with exactly this in mind.
Let’s start by looking at at their run scoring month by month.
(Note: ‘Runs Scored via HR’ includes the HR itself and the men on base at the time)
April (W-L 12-10)
Total Runs Scored-128
April Runs Scored via HR-52 (41%)
May (W-L 17-11)
Total Runs Scored-155
May Runs Scored via HR-71 (46%)
June (W-L 15-11)
Runs Scored-140
June Runs Scored via HR-48 (34%)
While they may have been heavily reliant on the long ball earlier in the year, that trend seems to be moving in the opposite direction of late. Credit the emergence of Brett Gardner and the resurrection of Melky for at least some of this, both are tied for 6th on the Yanks in Runs Scored. But make no mistake about it, Johnny Damon still makes this team go. Leads the Yanks in Runs Scored, and in fact Damon, Cano and Tex are all ahead of our leadoff man Derek Jeter in that department. The lack of runs scored in April has to at least in part be attributed to Alex being on the DL, and Tex’s slump certainly didn’t help matters any.
Lady Godiva video Overall run scoring isn’t a problem for the Yanks, they rank #1 in all of Baseball in that category. They rank #2 in HRs, trailing Texas by just 3 on the season. The Rays rank #2 in Runs scored, the BoSox #4, behind the Cleveland Indians. The Rays are a different type of Run Scoring team than the Yanks, but every bit as effective. They are #2 in Walks (Yanks are #1) and #1 in Stolen bases (Yanks are #5) yet are #3 in HRs (Yanks #2). So the Rays generate runs more through a combination of speed, patience with good power, wheras the Yanks tend to score runs with a combination of patience and power. The Red Sox tend to mirror the Yanks in how they score runs, they just aren’t quite as good at it. 4th in HRs (Yanks #2), 3rd in BB (Yanks #1), 3rd in OPS (Yanks are #1) 4th in SB.
The Freshman ipod So in concluding, the team that would worry me the most in the post season from a run scoring standpoint isn’t the Red Sox, its the Rays. They have a more versatile offense, and therefore more ways to beat you.
-Whoever’s idea it was on the Red Sox to have Penny throw at A-Rod early deserves a raise. That game had 6-0 Yanks by the 3rd inning written all over it when you looked at the pitching match up, and the Sox set the tone right there that they would have none of it. And we can’t complain much either, Joba’s been throwing at Youkilis for the past two years.
Tchaikovsky: ‘Fortune and Tragedy’ full movie
-I know the umpire had a big strike zone all night that both teams complained about, but Brad Penny’s performance was eerily reminiscent of the infamous Curt Schilling ‘Bloody Sock’ game. 92 MPH fastballs with nothing on them all night long that the Yanks could do nothing with. Exhibit A that the Red Sox are now officially in the Yankees’ heads.
-Speaking of fastballs, we should all know by now that the YES gun is a joke. Manny DelCarmen threw 2 change ups that YES had at 92 MPH, and I saw a few of Phil Hughes’ curveballs register at 95 MPH on Thursday.
-For all of you calling for Girardi’s head, an improved bullpen would make him look a lot smarter. If he had an effective Brian Bruney to call upon when CC faltered, the rest of that inning plays out completely differently. Girardi would be less apt to leave CC in, and if Bruney falters he backs him up with Mo. He wasn’t going to Mo for a 6 out save and I wouldn’t have either. Mo is 39 years old and has already shown signs of slipping this year. He went one batter too long with CC, but that’s his ace and he asked him to peform and he didn’t. Things like this go into a managers’ memory bank for future reference.
-As disgusted as we all are by the current 0-8 record vs the Sox, a lot can still change over time. I’ve been of the conviction all year that this Sox team will wear down over time with all the injury prone players on this roster. My prediction that Dice-K
is morphing into Hideo Nomo looks pretty good as well. Don’t expect Smoltz to ride in on a white horse just yet, either. Latest reports have him throwing 88-90 MPH fastballs in his rehab starts. The Yanks also showed that the vaunted Red Sox bullpen isn’t as impervious as we’ve been led to believe, at least not against a better lineup. I don’t care if we go 0-19 against the Sox during the regular season as long as we beat them in the playoffs.
-Our old pal El Duque has signed with the Rangers. Quick story, I was in LaGuardia airport about 5-6 years ago reading a magazine as I waited for my flight. I look up and see a guy with two of the hottest mamacitas you’ve ever seen, one on each arm. The one on his left was a dead ringer for Salma Hayek and the other was a blonde that looked like Shakira. And yes, it was Orlando, apparently on one of his ‘rehab’ stints. He was already one of my all time favorite Yanks before this lil’ incident, and that sighting put him in the top 3.
Metoroporisu trailer -For anyone interested in the Yanks 2009 draft, MLB.com will be hosting a live chat with David Oppenheimer this Tuesday. Make sure to check it out, I’m sure he’ll have some interesting insights on the players the Yanks selected.
THT has a must read piece up interviewing noted Baseball economist and Columbia University professor Vince Gennaro, who authored the book Diamond Dollars
. He delves into the changing nature of free agency, how the economy will affect teams among other topics. But what I thought was most timely were his thoughts on the upcoming Baseball draft and the July 31st trade deadline. First, here’s his take on the draft:
THT: How do you think the economy will affect how teams draft and deal with international signings this year?
VG: I would expect teams to continue to be relatively aggressive in these areas. With the downturn in the economy putting revenue pressure on many teams, these low cost sources of talent are even more important to the long term health of low revenue teams. Teams know that taking a pass on the draft by not stepping up and signing draftees, or pulling back from signing international prospects can set them back a couple of years in their quest to become or maintain competitiveness.
That’s surprising, given how speculative these picks generally are. The draft would seem to me to be the first thing a cost-conscious team would cut back on, as the Mets and Pirates have for many years. Also, with free agent prices coming down and good players available relatively cheap, a team would be even less likely to spend on high-risk draft picks when MLB ready talent is available for short term deals at similar rates. For example, a team like the Mets that is close to contending would rather spend 5 mil for a year of Bobby Abreu than spend a similar amount on a HS kid who may never be a MLB player, and is very likely to never be as good as Bobby Abreu. That would drive prices down for anyone past the top half of the 1st Round. Most Baseball GMs have a short shelf life, they know if they don’t win and fast, they will likely not be around to see the fruits of a high school kid helping the MLB team.
But he may be right with other GMs that have more secure positions, we certainly saw evidence to support his take with Billy Beanes’ eye-popping offer to IFA pitcher Michael Inoa last year. I suspect this market may mirror the MLB free agent market, where the top guys get their money and everyone else’s price collapses. That would benefit the Yanks in both markets, big time. Agents would steer clients to the Yanks (and Sox) knowing they’re the only ones spending any money past the 1st round leading to both teams having drafts deep in high upside talent. But this market could also work in reverse with HS players, where they will simply opt for college and hope the economy improves by next year.
Next, he discusses the trade deadline:
THT: Will the economy change how teams trade players during the year? For example, will teams that get off to a bad start be more willing to trade their more expensive players?
VG: I think teams that are not in contention will be more aggressive in terms of looking to deal players. I really think it will be a buyer’s market and I would expect teams to start shopping players earlier, leading to more transactions in June. There’s very little financial upside in being a 74-win team vs. a 70-win team. Yet a player who might be able to push a team into the postseason may hold the key to unlocking a $30 million revenue stream. It’s always interesting to watch how playing assets get reallocated mid-year to situations where they have the highest return. There are a few teams that have publicly said that they’re stashing some dollars in order to become an acquirer in July. They should be able to make some key additions at a reasonable price.
This interview was conducted months before the season, yet he nailed this. We’re already seeing the Pirates, Indians, Padres and A’s shopping players looking to get out ahead of a market that could collapse at the last minute. The teams that could really get hurt by this are the ones that are currently in contention (Blue Jays, Cincinatti) but don’t figure to stay close all year. They’re too good now to raise the white flag by selling off, but could easily fall out of the race over the next month and see their balance sheet force them to make a last-minute deal, where they are likely to get little in return. I would throw Milwaukee in this category as well, I still think the Cubs are the best team in that division and will hit their stride eventually. Particularily when Harden and Ramirez come off the DL soon.
One of the main arguments the B-Jobbers have for putting Joba in the pen is the superiority of the Red Sox bullpen this year. They want Joba sent to the bullpen now in an attempt to match the Sox in their area of strength. But chances are, this will all be irrelevant come playoff time.
Think about what our rotation will be for the playoffs.
CC
Patrick ipod
AJ
Pettitte
If Wang returns to form, he likely gets a start as well, depending on off days and travel considerations. That puts both Joba AND Hughes in the pen come playoff time. Both will likely be up against their innings restrictions by that time anyway, so starting them is unlikely unless someone is hurt. We saw how good Hughes was out of the bullpen in 07, and we all know about Joba’s track record. That could transform a shaky Yankee pen to an outstanding one overnight.
The big edge the Red Sox have had so far over the Yanks this year is in the bullpen, with their bullpen ERA at #1 in the AL and the Yanks sitting 2nd from the bottom. But with Hughes and Joba in the bullpen and the 4 starters who all figure to give you length, it just doesn’t figure to matter much come playoff time. If the Yankee starters are giving you quality and length as they should, the inferior bullpen is largely irrelevant. If not, Hughes, Joba and Bruney should be able to bridge the gap. Also, the Sox bullpen edge has its limitations. If they are using their outstanding bullpen depth early, that means they’re most likely already in big trouble that game. So its the kind of edge you’d prefer not to use, you rather get quality and length from the starters. Further, the Yankee bullpen should be better by October not even counting Hughes and Joba. Bruney should be healthy and we should have some more help coming from AAA.
The Red Sox starting pitchers have been bad this year, pitching to an ERA that puts them near the bottom of the AL. The Yanks are better, but not as much as you’d like at #9. I’d give them a break on the Wang starts, though. That was clearly an aberration related to a freak injury where the rehab was botched as well. If you replaced those inning with league average production the Yanks would be near the top in Starter’s ERA. But I’m sure everyone would like to do some variation on that with their team too, and to quote the old line ‘you are what your record is’. But it is fair to extrapolate in terms of how this team might fare against the competition come playoff time. With a Wang that performs to the back of his baseball card, the Yanks have as good (if not better) a starting rotation as anyone in Baseball.
I think the Yanks will be in excellent shape come playoff time as is. But I won’t be surprised if they still make a deal or two anyway to shore up the bullpen.
There two popular scenarios that Yankee fans envision the team pursuing in his absence until his (estimated) May 15th return. They reflect two distinct areas of the fan base and could have ramifications in both cases. They are as follows:
First Scenario: The Yanks are limping along, unable to muster enough runs to allow their improved pitching staff to make the impact the brass had hoped for. They have a record somewhere within a few wins of .500 on either side of the ledger. Alex comes back and lengthens the lineup, puts up his usual great numbers and leads the Yanks to the playoffs. Most of these folks are younger fans who are more sabermetrically inclined.
Second Scenario: The Yankees are flourishing in his absence. Freed of Alex and all the drama that surrounds him, The Yanks play as a team, as opposed to the 24+1 group they have when A-Rod is around. Knowing they don’t have a big bat in the lineup, they do the little things needed to win games. They play the kind of Baseball the Yanks were known for in the late 90’s, when they didn’t have any big stars in the lineup, they had them on the mound. Most of these are older fans who’ve seen the team win in various configurations, some without a big hitter, and think Alex is a choker.
Which scenario will be proven right remains to be seen, but there are implications for both. If the Yanks were to struggle in his absence, the pro-Alex camp would be reinforced in their belief that he is essential to the team’s success. Opponents would be dismissive of this result, and cite the Yanks previous slow starts in recent years, but would get to see what a Yankee world without Alex would look like and be given pause.
If the Yanks were to flourish, especially in the context of previous teams slow starts, then the anti-Alex camp would become even more emboldened. That would remove any doubts they have of the team’s chances to win in a post A-Rod world. They wouldn’t just be criticizing him anymore, but actively rooting for his exit, and making that desire known on radio stations and newspapers everywhere. It would also give the anti-Alex forces in the Yankee brass (which include the GM) further ammunition in their argument for his departure from the Bronx sometime down the road. They’ll need plenty of ammo, because that exit would be very, very expensive.
We did an article on Darvish recently. If that caught your interest, here’s a cool analysis of his latest performance from FanGraphs. Hmmm, 95mph with an unhittable slider? That sounds a lot like another young pitcher I know of. Hint: his name begins with a J and sounds like Schmobba.
