I’m calling it a diss, although you might disagree.
Here’s the quote in question, via Seth Livingstone of USA Today:
John Flaherty, former big-league catcher in his fifth season as a broadcaster for the YES Network, came up through the Boston Red Sox system ahead of Garciaparra and now sees Jeter and Rodriguez on a regular basis. He remembers well the discussions in the clubhouse similar to those among fans who debated the merits of the three stars.
“(Players would say) Alex might have the best all-around ability of the three — the fielding, the power, the tools scouts would see,” Flaherty says. “But then you’d go in a different direction: Who would you want on your team? Who would you want up in a big spot? Kind of throw the tools and talent out and the competition starts coming. You’d start thinking about Derek and Nomar.”
Each was different when it came to working them behind the plate.
“Nomar went up there, and you knew the first thing he saw he would let it fly,” Flaherty says. “He could do some damage on the first pitch of an at-bat. There was no trying to set him up. He wasn’t going to give you a strike. He was going to be very aggressive and, in Fenway, create a lot of damage.
“Derek’s the same way — very aggressive. He’s not going to hurt you as much (with power), but in a big spot you really had to be careful.
“Alex was more patient. He would try to work into a hitter’s count, so you could try to jump ahead, get strike one, then go to work.”
There’s a tacit, “Alex Rodriguez isn’t clutch,” argument embedded in here, isn’t there?
Photo by the AP
This is a question I raised on Twitter earlier this week, and I thought it might be fun to address it in a longer format: if you could have cut Alex Rodriguez at the start of this offseason (obviously theoretical, as there is no “cutting” in baseball), with the knowledge that he would sign with another club after doing so, would you have done it? While on the face of it, the suggestion seems ridiculous, I think there are plenty of reasons it would make sense. Let’s look at the pros and cons of such a move:
Pros: The most obvious reason that the Yankees would cut A-Rod is financial. Here are the terms of his contract, courtesy of Cot’s:
08:$27M, 09:$32M, 10:$32M, 11:$31M, 12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M
$30M marketing agreement based on home run milestones ($6M each for reaching 660, 714, 755 and tying and breaking major league HR record)
Alex has 8 years and 186M dollars left on his deal, plus another 30M available in bonuses that he has a solid chance of reaching. After he resigned prior to the 2008 season, Dan Szymborski ran a Zips projection for the balance of the contract, and found the following:
The dollars and production start to be incongruent around 2013, and this projection was produced prior to Alex having major surgery and missing a month of the 2009 season. A similar projection run today would be even more frightening. As such, the last few years of Alex’s deal have a decent chance of being a disaster. If the Yankees were to cut Alex, they could take that same money and invest it in replacing his production and improving in multiple areas around the diamond. For example, you could have used that money this offseason to bring in Matt Holliday and Adrian Beltre, and likely would have lost little production.
Another reason that some might want to cut Alex is that he is always surrounded by drama. While I have contended that this is often through no fault of his own, it is simply the nature of being the game’s most expensive player that people will turn everything you do into a story. While this is not something that bothers me and would certainly not be a reason for me to cut him, I could understand if some people believe that it should at least be considered when weighing all options.
Cons: Alex is one of the best players in the game at this moment. While you could likely take his money and upgrade at a number of positions, it usually makes sense to concentrate as much value as possible in one position. Put differently, replacing a 7 win player with a 4 win guy and a 3 win guy means a loss in value, because it cost you an extra roster spot to create the same amount of value.
Now, the argument may be that as Alex ages, his production will decline to the point where that argument no longer holds true. For most clubs, this would mean that cutting Alex and reinvesting in younger players would be the most sensible solution. However, the Yankees can afford to carry some dead salary in the latter years of the deal in order to benefit the club now. Furthermore, the front-loaded nature of the contract will likely make the salary to production ratio a bit more palatable than it would be if the contract was considered in AAV terms. Finally, the publicity sure to follow Alex as he approaches various home run records will likely bring plenty of revenue to the Yankees, mostly in terms of merchandising, thereby offsetting some of the loss in value caused by declining production.
Personally, I would not have cut Alex, as the Yankees financial power allows me to sacrifice some money later for greater value now. However, I think it is a much closer call than it first appears. How about you? What would you have done?
A few days ago, I wrote the following about the story connecting Alex Rodriguez to a doctor under investigation for distributing HGH:
If A-Rod had wished, he could have refused to speak with the investigators. Instead, he is being open about his connection to Galea, and has stated on a number of occasions that he has nothing to do with this and will simply be discussing “someone else.” While it is possible that A-Rod comes out of this entire situation looking bad, we have absolutely zero evidence at this point by which to make any sort of determination.
Since that point, Galea has said that he did indeed treat Alex for inflammation, and prescribed anti-inflammatories. One question that I have been asked repeatedly is that if Alex was simply getting anti-inflammatories, why obtain them from a shady doctor in Canada? Why not go through typical medical channels? To answer this question, I point to one small detail that seems to have been glossed over by those attempting to turn this into a huge story before any information is available:
The nature of A-Rod’s relationship with Galea, the Toronto physician who was arrested in October after authorities found illegal drugs in his assistant’s car during a stop at the U.S. Canadian border, is unclear. Mark Lindsay, a Canadian chiropractor who managed the Yankee third basemen’s rehabilitation after hip surgery last year, is an associate of Galea, however. Galea and Lindsay are principals at a Toronto sports medicine clinic called Affinity Health. Galea is being investigated in both Canada and the U.S.
To be clear, Dr. Lindsay and Galea worked together, and Lindsay was the doctor whom the Yankees and surgeon Dr. Marc Phillipon approved to take care of A-Rod’s rehab. Furthermore, Lindsay himself is apparently not approved to write prescriptions in the US, and needed someone such as Galea to deal with anything that required a scrip. As such, the perception that A-Rod went looking in the seedy underbelly of the medical world for treatment is silly and unfounded. He almost certainly was referred to Galea by Lindsay, who was the doctor in charge of the medical treatment related to his hip. While it may have been stupid of Alex to go to a doctor that was not directly approved by the Yankees, that does not mean that he went to Galea to get HGH.
If there was something illicit going on between Alex and Galea, it will be exposed in time. Until that time, let’s not jump to conclusions that are not supported by the available information.
Yesterday, Joe Girardi discussed a few things with Mike Francesa (H/T to Steve for this). I’ll briefly run through the points General Joe made and my reactions to them:
1. Nick Johnson will bat second.
This is something with which I whole-heartedly agree (and Moshe does, too). Johnson at the top of the order will give Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez yet another man to drive in. While Johnson may not be the fleetest of foot out there, the important thing is being on base. In fact, in 2009, Johnson scored 11 times from second base when a single was hit. In the same situation, Curtis Granderson scored five times. I wouldn’t worry too much about Johnson “clogging the bases”.
2. Curtis Granderson is going to play center field.
Though I ran the numbers, way back on my second day at TYU, and they came out saying Granderson in left and Gardner in center would be better numerically, I don’t have a problem with this. If Granderson really has issues defensively, he can be moved. No matter what position he’s at, Granderson’s bat will play, and he’s still likely to be a good defender in center. Regardless, Gardner-Granderson-Swisher will be fine offensively and will be one of the best defensively.
3. Cano will hit fifth to avoid “stacking lefties” (5-9: Cano, Posada, Granderson, Swisher, Gardner).
I’m rather surprised by this, actually. I thought for sure Jorge would’ve been the five place hitter. Frankly, though, it doesn’t matter. The reality is that the 5-8 guys listed above could all bat at any of those spots (and some of them could bat higher) and this “problem” just speaks to how strong and “circular” the Yankee lineup is. Cano’s power should play well in the five spot and having a lot of guys on in front of him–from Jeter through A-Rod–should help correct his problems with runners on.
4. Girardi believes Cano’s struggles w/RISP are sample size issues.
I agree. Cano’s eventually going to hit like he normally does when there are runners in scoring position. Perhaps “forcing” the issue by putting him higher in the order will correct this issue. As long as Robbie puts up numbers like he did in ‘05-’07 and ‘09, I’ll be happy.
5. Posada will catch 100-120 games.
He caught 111 games last season, and that was with a hamstring issue, so he could do that again this year. At his age, though, catching that many games may be wishful thinking. If it happens, though, the Yankees are in great, great shape. An additional note, Girardi added that Johnson will primarily DH (see below) and on days that Posada sits, Johnson will still DH. This is clearly aimed at keeping Jorge healthy.
6. Nick Johnson will play 1B 2-3 times a month, spelling Tex, who will DH on those days.
This, too, surprises me. While it’s nice to give Tex a little break, I’m not sure if it’s necessary. Johnson’s generally been a strong fielder, though, so it can’t hurt–unless, of course, Nick gets hurt.
7. Granderson plays every day.
Yes. 100% yes. The only way Curtis can work through his problems against left handers is to face them as much as possible and get as many reps as he can. Obviously, if there isn’t progress by May or June, it’s time to scrap that plan. I have faith, though, in Granderson and Kevin Long to fix the problem and make Curtis even better than he is.
Alex Rodriguez stated yesterday that will be speaking with federal investigators regarding Dr. Tony Galea, a doctor connected to HGH who has ties to A-Rod’s rehab doctor. Of course, this set off a firestorm among some Yankees columnists, despite the fact that Bud Selig has noted that he does not believe there in anything to worry about for the sport in reference to Dr. Galea. Of course, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran will be speaking to investigators as well, but the NY media did not see an opportunity for sanctimony in regard to those players. Let’s look at the worst overreaction, from Ian O’Connor, who famously penned a column last spring advocating that the Yankees dump Alex Rodriguez:
So yes, technically, this is about someone else. It’s about Galea. It’s about a doctor who reportedly used HGH for years and yet still found his way into the inner sanctums of megastars the likes of Tiger Woods.
But no, realistically, this isn’t about someone else. It’s about Alex Rodriguez. It’s about a once-in-a-generation ballplayer who cheated the game, cheated the fans and cheated himself, and who now is discovering that even a World Series ring and ticker-tape parade can’t absolve him of his not-so-venial steroid sins.
Investigators want to know if Rodriguez went back to playing boli-ball.
You would be hard pressed to find a more hyperbolic bit of text than the one cited above. A number of players have been questioned, and more are likely to be approached. If A-Rod had wished, he could have refused to speak with the investigators. Instead, he is being open about his connection to Galea, and has stated on a number of occasions that he has nothing to do with this and will simply be discussing “someone else.” While it is possible that A-Rod comes out of this entire situation looking bad, we have absolutely zero evidence at this point by which to make any sort of determination.
O’Connor is simply taking the opportunity provided by a story that places HGH and A-Rod in the same paragraph to throw some more barbs at Alex. For O’Connor to try and turn this into another steroid frenzy about A-Rod when he is simply one of many players who have had some incidental contact with Galea is irresponsible. Of course, it is hard to expect much journalistic integrity from a scribe who allowed his anti-ARod column from last year to be removed from the internet due to its embarrassing lack of perspective.
This is the sober moral of the Alex Rodriguez story. His presumption of game-day innocence is much like a baseball hit way out of the park.
He’s never getting it back.
The same could be said of any modicum of respectability and credibility that O’Connor had after the A-Rod column fiasco of 2009. After this disaster, he’s never getting it back.
In 2009, the Yankees won 15 games in their last at bat. That’s a lot of games that could’ve gone either way, but because of a few things, they went the Yankees’ way. A lot of it is the fact that the 2009 Yankees were an incredible hitting team and that allowed them to rarely feel like they were completely out of the game. Of course, luck was also a factor. When the game is so close that it must go down to the last at bat or extra innings, a team will almost always be lucky to win. How lucky were the 2009 Yankees when it came to walking off in 2010?
HUGE DISCLAIMER: I DID NOT DO VERY WELL IN STATS 101 MY SENIOR YEAR OF COLLEGE SO SOME OF THIS MATH MAY BE A LITTLE FUZZY. IF ANYONE OUT THERE WANTS/NEEDS TO CORRECT MY MATH IN THE COMMENTS, PLEASE DO SO.
To try and figure this out, I went to the Yankees’ pages on Baseball Reference and looked at the last ten years results data. The Yankees had the following number(s) of walk off wins in the given years:
2009: 15
2008: 9
2007: 6
2006: 3
2005: 10
2004: 7
2003: 5
2002: 7
2001: 3
2000: 6
That’s a total of 71 walk off wins in the last ten years, so the average is 7.1 walk off wins per year. To see if the Yankees got a little lucky in 2009, I also calculated the standard deviation of this set of data. That came out to be about 3.4. According to the Empirical Rule, 99.7% of data lies within 3 standard deviations of the mean (average).
So, to see years in which the Yankees got lucky (or unlucky) let’s multiply our SD, 3.4, by three (10.2) and add it to our mean, 7.1.
7.1 + (3.4*3)= 17.30
What this tells us is that anything higher than 17.3 walk off wins would be a ridiculous outlier. It would seem, then, that the Yankees’ 15 walk off wins, no matter how gaudy and outlandish looking it was, were not too much of a statistical outlier.
Still, this sample is still relatively small, so I’m not sure exactly how reliable it is. Not only am I only using one team and not comparing these numbers to the broader league average, but the team has changed so much since 2000 that the teams are completely incomparable.
Going forward, this half-assed study doesn’t have any real predictive value, but it was fun to just crunch some numbers and remind myself of how awesome the Yankees were in walk-off situations last season. So, I leave you with a video of the two walk offs for which I was in attendance:
In his post yesterday about the potential batting order for 2010, Steve posted an image of a lineup card for what appears to be an All-Time Yankee team. Obviously, that team is just stacked. So stacked, in fact, that it got me thinking–what would my all time Yankee batting look like and how many runs could they score in a 162 game season?
For the first part, my team would look just like Steve’s, except I’d have Alex Rodriguez starting at third; don’t worry Nettles fans, he’d be on my bench. The rest of the bench would be rounded out by Jorge Posada (sorry, Thurman), Bernie Williams, and Don Mattingly. But, what we’re really concerned about here is the starting lineup and just how prolific it would be on offense.
Using the ever awesome Lineup Analysis tool from Baseball Musings, we can estimate how many runs this team would score by punching in each player’s OBP and SLG. Since this is an all-Yankee team, I’ll be using their Yankee numbers only.
The average lineup containing these players would score 7.385 runs per game. In a 162 game season, that means 1,197 runs. The modern record for runs scored in a season was set by the 1931 Yankees, who scored 1,067. This team would beat that tally by 130 runs. That’s disgusting. Words cannot describe the awesomeness of this lineup.
The best projected lineup would be Ruth/Gehrig/Lazzeri/DiMaggio/Mantle/Jackson/Rodriguez/Berra/Jeter, which would score 7.499 per game (1,215 per 162).
The worst projected lineup was Berra/Lazzeri/Rodriguez/Jeter/Jackson/Mantle/Gehrig/Ruth/DiMaggio and even that scored 7.004 runs per game (1,135). So even the “worst” lineup consisting of these nine guys would break the runs scored record.
This gargantuan lineup is a testament to one thing: the Yankees have had some incredible players over the years. As I said previously, we as Yankee fans have been blessed to have seen such great players don the uniform of our favorite team.
If there is one thing to sum up this lineup, it would be this: Total Domination.
Yesterday, Moshe posted 25 questions/issues going into Spring Training. Tackling them one-by-one in full posts would take way too long, so I’m going to give some quick hit answers to each one.
1. Jorge’s decline: Steve’s got legit concerns about Jorge declining, and if there’s anyone on the Yankees who’s going to decline, it’s likely to be Jorge. The average projection for Jorge doesn’t seem too ominous, but you never know with older catchers. My guess? Jorge doesn’t fall off a cliff, but he’s not as productive with the bat as he was last year.
2. The back up catcher: barring injury, I think this job is Cervelli’s to lose. His bat is iffy, but it’s okay for a back up catcher and his defense is solid.
3. The Jesus and 2010/catching: If we see El Carpentiero at all in ‘10, it’ll likely be as a September call up. As for whether he can handle catching, I’m cautiously optimistic. Regardless, that bat is downright dreamy and I want it sticking around in the Yankee organization for years to come.
4. Nick Johnson: Like with Hideki Matsui in ‘09, keeping Johnson off the field could be the key to keeping him healthy. If he does stay healthy, I think he could at the very least come close to matching Hideki/Johnny Damon, he’ll just do it in different ways. His power should bounce back by being in YSIII and I’d expect his HR/FB anomaly from 2009 to correct itself as well.
5. Cano’s defense: I think he’ll stay where he is, which is frustrating ’cause he’s brilliant out there at times.
6. Jeter’s contract situation as a potential distraction: I don’t think it will be an issue until after the ASB.
7. A-Rod’s defense: I think we’ll see the second half A-Rod on defense–still below average with the range (but what an arm!), but not as bad as he was immediately after returning.
8. Utility role: I say Pena, unless Russo really wows everyone in ST.
9. Which Swish: It may not be an exact copy, but I’d put good money on the ‘10 Swisher looking a lot like the ‘09 Swisher.
10. Grandy vs. lefties: Hopefully, Kevin Long can work some magic. And, yes, moving to YSIII will definitely help C-Grand.
11. Gardner as an everyday player: I’m cautiously optimistic for Gardner, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on this issue.
12. Randy Winn’s possible decline: 2009 looks like one of two outliers in the last 8 seasons, 2006 was the other. If he can bounce back, great. If not, it’s not a huge sunken cost and he’s replaceable.
13. Gardy or Grandy in CF: I’ll be happy either way, but the numbers point to Gardner in CF.
14. Hoffmann or Thames: I think they’ll go with Hoffmann, just to see what he’s got unless Thames absolutely destroys the Grapefruit League.
15. October hangover for SPs: It’s possible, but they’re veterans who know how to manage their bodies. Hopefully, there are no ill effects.
16. Javy as unclutch: I see good things for Javy this time around.
17. A.J.’s health: Burnett will pitch at least 185 innings in 2010.
18. 5th starter: I’ve written more than once about this. Joba it shall be.
19. BP or SWB: See above.
20. Damaso: He won’t be as lights out in the playoffs, but he’ll be his usual lefty destroying self since he’ll finally be healthy for a full year.
21. Second lefty: I don’t think a second lefty is a must, but I think General Joe likes the idea of having two lefties, so I think they’ll at least start off the year w/2 LHRPs.
22. If not, who gets the job: No thinking, gut reaction, Melancon.
23. Mo and…aging…: I’ll defer to Chris Turk for the answer.
24. Girardi’s lack of job security: The only way it becomes an issue is if Joe really screws up this year, which won’t happen.
25. Room in the budget if needed: They’ll find it.
So, there you have it: 25 quick answers to 25 complex questions. Before you know it, it’ll be November and we’ll be looking back on these (hopefully after a 28th championship) issues and their outcomes. Here’s to hoping they all turn out the way we want them to.
We authors here at TYU all seem to bring something different to the proverbial table. Moshe grinds out meaningful posts that are well developed and thought provoking. E.J. does the prospect thing. Steve likes to touch on the “hot button” issues of Yankee-land. Chris and I delve into a more analytical realm. Of course, we all reach across “genres” and touch on all of these things. Like we who write about them, each of the Yankee hitters brings his own special skills to the plate and the field.
Jorge Posada
Let’s kick it off with the man behind the plate: Jorge Posada. It’s my contention that Jorge is one of the most underrated players of the last twenty years. His offense out of the catcher’s spot has been both consistent and at a high level for 15 years and aside from Mike Piazza, he has been the finest offensive catcher in the game (Joe Mauer will take this title shortly, but Posada’s done it for a long time). Anyway, that’s enough gushing. Jorge’s value, like many Yankees, comes from patience and power. His .277 average is quite average, but his .379 OBP is more than solid and his .480 SLG is good for anyone, let a lone a catcher.
Mark Teixeira
It’s hard to think of something Mark doesn’t do well. He plays solid defense. He’s a good contact hitter (.290 career batting average). He’s patient at the plate (.373 career OBP, 80 walks per 162 games). He’s got great power (.545 SLG, .255 IsoP, 80 XBH per 162). Basically, Tex is arguably the most well-rounded player on the Yankees. Teixeira brings value to the team in a big variety of ways and I speak for all Yankee fans when I say I’m incredibly happy he is on the team.
Robinson Cano
Robbie Cano is a player with incredible talent, and is probably the third best second baseman in baseball–I give Pedroia the edge over Cano because Rogaine’s defense is better–but there are hols in his game. His defense is flashy at times, but awful at others. His lack of on base skills is also a bit frustrating (.033 IsoD, 4.2% BB%, average is around 9%). Cano, however, does two things very well: he hits for average (.306 career BA, 11.7 career K%, league average is about 20%) and hit for power (.480 career SLG, .173 IsoP, league average is about .155). If you’re looking for a patient hitter to work walks, Cano isn’t your guy. However, if you’re looking for a guy who’s gonna make a lot of contact and hit the ball real hard when he does make contact, look no further than Robbie.
Alex Rodriguez
A-Rod is like Tex. He does everything well. He may strike out a bit, 130 per 162, but he still hits for a high average at .302, gets on base at a .390 clip (.401 since joining the Yankees). Alex mashes the ball, with a career .576 SLG and .204 IsoP, with a 162 game average of 79 XBH, and 583 home runs in his career. Alex’s defense has taken a down turn in the last few years, but his offense cannot be overlooked. He’s one of the top hitters in the game and it’s quite clear from where his value comes.
Derek Jeter
Derek Jeter is the more patient, but slightly less powerful, version of Robinson Cano. His defense is so-so (though it was sparkling in ‘09), but his offense, especially relative to his position, is dreamy. A career .317/.388/.459 hitter, the Captain is good for around 200 hits and 70 walks per season. Like Teixeira and Rodriguez–but with lesser power and more contact–Jeter does everything well.
Brett Gardner
In a word: speed. Gardner’s speed is what will give him value to the team in 2010 and beyond. His on-base skills were very good in the minors, but they haven’t been great at the major league level. If he can keep his OBP where he kept it last year–between .340 and .350–then his speed will be incredibly valuable because he’ll be on base enough for his steals to matter. His lack of power, though, makes it seem possible that pitchers will simply challenge Brett and not allow him to reach via the walk.
Curtis Granderson
Curtis’s best feature is his power. His career slugging percentage is .484 and his IsoP is .212. Curtis does have a bit of a hole in his swing–149 strikeouts per 162–but he walks at a decent clip: .344 OBP, 67 BBs/162, 9.5% career BB%. If Curtis’s BABIP can rebound (.321 career, .275 in ‘09), and he continues to hit for power and walk at an average rate, Curtis’s offense will be quite valuable in 2010.
Nick Swisher
Disclaimer: I love Nick Swisher. Anyway, whenever discussing Nick Swisher–or players like him–with casual fans, I lead off with this: if you like players that hit for high batting averages, Nick Swisher is not gonna be a guy you like. Nick is never going to hit .300. What Nick is going to do, however, is still valuable: he walks a lot and he hits for a lot of power. Swisher’s career BA is a lowly .245 but his career on base percentage is .357 and his career slugging percentage is .460. That means an IsoD of .112 and an IsoP of .216; those are excellent marks. Swisher’s value comes from his patience and his power.
Nick Johnson
Last but not least is new-old- friend Nick Johnson. Johnson is like the “lite” version” of Swisher: he hits for more contact, .273 as opposed to Swish’s .245, but he also hits for less power: .447 and an IsoP of .174. However, Johnson’s on base skills are supreme: .402 career OBP, 15.6% walk rate, 0.93 BB/K. Out of the two hole, Johnson’s skill set will be invaluable in 2010. Not only will his hits move Derek Jeter around, but his walks will set up more RBI opportunities for the big boppers behind him.
Thus far, I’ve taken multiple looks at offensive projections and what they could signal for the Yankees in 2010. In some of those posts, I’ve briefly gone over the defensive projections for some players. I’d like to go more deeply into that today. To do so, I’ll be looking at these age adjusted UZR projections.
Leading off, I’ll start with the leadoff hitter: Derek Jeter. Last season was a defensive renaissance for the Captain. The process started in 2008 when Jeter saw his UZR/150 jump from -16.7 in 2007 to -0.7, so he was essentially average. In 2009, Jeter’s defense sky rocketed to an 8.4 UZR/150 mark, the first time Jeter was in the black in terms of UZR. My eyes, for one, seemed to back this up as Jeter’s range to his left seemed much, much better (though it looked like he still had trouble going to hsi right). No matter how we slice it, Jeter had a damn good fielding season in ‘09. For 2010, this system projects Jeter to be at -2.0/150. That’d be a big hit from last season–a 10.4 run drop–but considering where Jeter’s been according to UZR, that’s not all that bad. I suspect Jeter’s defensive projection, despite the great fielding season in 2009, is lower because of two things. The first is Jeter’s age; he’s not getting younger and most shortstops don’t get better in the field with age. The second is the fact that it looks like Jeter’s 2009 season was the outlier in terms of defense. Hopefully, Jeter can repeat last year’s performance on the left side of the infield, but I won’t be shocked if he doesn’t.
Let’s stay on the left side of the infield and look at Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod’s fielding was up and down last year, but it was mostly down. His arm looked as strong as ever, but his range was severely decreased. Now that Rodriguez is farther removed from his hip surgery, I expect his range to get a bit better. I don’t think he’ll be in the black, but he won’t be as far in the red as he was last year (-11.7/150) and the projection agrees with me and sees Rodriguez posting a -5 UZR/150. With his offense, as long as he’s not Adam Dunn in the field, he’s a positive. A six run improvement, even if it is still on the wrong side of the number line, would be welcomed warmly.
In my humble opinion, there is no more puzzling player on defense than Robinson Cano. There are weeks when Cano looks like he’s the greatest second basemen to ever play the position. Then, the very next week, he’ll look completely lost at second. Robbie ended last year with a -5.2 UZR/150, his second straight year with a big negative number (-7.0 in ‘08). He’s projected for -2.0/150 and that makes sense. The only consistent thing about Cano’s defense is inconsistency. Regardless, he has the offense to way out-hit a -2 UZR projection and I will not be surprised at all if Cano posts another 4.0-5.0 WAR season.
No one sparked a bigger debate about the merits/demerits of UZR in 2009 than first baseman Mark Teixeira. Despite showing what looked like great defense at first, Tex posted a UZR/150 of -4.1. It’s worth noting that UZR has its holes for every position, but it’s least effective and accurate when dealing with first basemen, so take that number with a grain of salt. The projection sees Mark improving to a 0 UZR/150. In the last four seasons, Tex’s UZR/150 numbers have been -1.8, -5.2, +9.3, and -4.1. Those numbers are all over the place, so I’d expect that 0 UZR/150 to come to pass as it’s right in the middle.
2010 should give the Yankees their strongest defensive outfield in a long, long time. Brett Gardner seemingly gets to everything, Curtis Granderson covers a lot of ground, and though he doesn’t make it look pretty, Nick Swisher’s got good range in right. Starting with Swisher, we see he’s projected for a +1 UZR/150, which is just around where he was last year (-1.2).
Either position, LF or CF, is projected to be a positive for Gardner. Interestingly enough, Gardner’s CF projection, +8, is higher than his LF projection of +2. Regardless, it looks like we’re heading into 2010 with Gardner as the starting left fielder. That projection, though, is way too bearish. It’s that way probably because of a small sample (17 games) and I expect Gardner to field much better than that in 2010.
Curtis Granderson is projected positively in center field as well, with a +1 UZR/150 prediction. That seems about right, considering that’s where he was last year (1.6) and where he was in ‘08 (-9.3). It’s likely, though, that Granderson will outplay that projection because he won’t be relied upon to cover much ground, since he won’t have Magglio Ordonez (-5.8 UZR/150) or Carlos Guillen (-12.7 UZR/150) flanking him.
Bench outfielder Randy Winn should get his fair amount of time in the field as well; in right and left (+11 and +7 respectively), he projects positively.
The Yankees should have a solid defense in 2010 and paired with a strong pitching staff, the Yankees should do pretty well in the run prevention category.
