Lineups via LoHud:

YANKEES
Derek Jeter SS
Johnny Damon LF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Hideki Matsui DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Melky Cabrera CF

Pitching: LHP Andy Pettitte (1-0, 2.84 ERA in postseason)

ANGELS
Chone Figgins 3B
Bobby Abreu RF
Torii Hunter CF
Vladimir Guerrero DH
Kendry Morales 1B
Howie Kendrick 2B
Juan Rivera LF
Jeff Mathis C
Erick Aybar SS

Pitching: LHP Joe Saunders (0-0, 2.57 ERA in postseason)

TIME/TV: 8:20 p.m., FOX

Here are the Angels’ numbers against Pettitte (postseason included).

Here are the Yankees’ numbers against Saunders (postseason included).

I’m expecting a big game out of Alex Rodriguez, who is 7-for-17 against Saunders, with 2 home runs and 2 doubles. Also, Andy is searching for his 16th postseason win, which would make him the all-time leader. If he struggles or if the game remains close upon his exit, the Yankees could use A.J. Burnett as a reliever tonight. According to Andy McCullough (Star-Ledger), Burnett skipped his bullpen session on Friday in preparation for a relief appearance over the weekend. Girardi says that he could use him for one out or more—it depends on the situation—so that’s definitely something to keep in mind.

Let’s go, boys. A win tonight would prevent us all from having heart attacks tomorrow.

From Brittany Ghiroli (MLB):

Hughes has allowed nine hits in 4 2/3 innings, posting a 5.79 ERA that pitching coach Dave Eiland says is largely the result of an old mechanical problem resurfacing.”[It's] just a minor adjustment and he knows it,” Eiland said prior to the team’s optional workout on Friday afternoon. “It’s just staying within yourself — just trust it and not trying to make that good stuff you have even better. Because you do that [and] you get a little jumpy, you get a little quick through your delivery and you affect your command. And that’s what is happening.”

Right now—during the postseason—is the worst time for Hughes to experience this mechanical problem. I’ve written about the issue before, as it has been an ongoing dilemma for Hughes, one that often opens him up, not only to ineffectiveness, but to injury. Essentially, he overthrows the fastball and ends up pushing it to the catcher, which causes his command of the pitch to waver. That was the case in Game 6, as Hughes tried to throw a high and inside fastball to Vladimir Guerrero yet it sat in the middle of the plate (he should have thrown the curveball away, but a high fastball isn’t necessarily an awful idea).

Hopefully, with Dave Eiland’s mechanical adjustments, Hughes will be prepared to take the ball tonight. When he’s right, there’s no doubt that he’s the best setup man in the league. He has yet to demonstrate that in the ALCS, however. Game 6 could be where he recaptures that mantle.

Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

The game will be played tomorrow night at 8:20 pm and Game 7 will be pushed to Monday night (if necessary).

UPDATE – To be clear, Andy will pitch tomorrow and, if he is needed, CC will pitch on Monday.

The lineups via LoHud:

YANKEES
Derek Jeter SS
Johnny Damon LF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Hideki Matsui DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Melky Cabrera CF
Jose Molina C

Pitching: RHP A.J. Burnett (0-0, 2.19 ERA in postseason)

ANGELS
Chone Figgins 3B
Bobby Abreu RF
Torii Hunter CF
Vladimir Guerrero DH
Kendry Morales 1B
Maicer Izturis 2B
Juan Rivera LF
Jeff Mathis C
Erick Aybar SS

Pitching: RHP John Lackey (1-1, 1.38 ERA in postseason)

TIME/TV: 7:57 p.m., FOX

Here are Lackey’s numbers against the Yankees.

Here are Burnett’s numbers against the Angels.

Lackey needs to be careful with Derek Jeter (who is battling a cold), Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Melky Cabrera tonight, as all four players have had success against him in the past. Conversely, Burnett must be careful with Bobby Abreu, and Chone Figgins. Surprisingly, despite being on the brink of elimination, Howie Kendrick and Mike Napoli aren’t in the lineup, though both have very good numbers against Burnett (thanks, Scioscia).

If the Yankees win tonight, they’ll head to the World Series to face the Phillies.

Go time…

Via Marc Carig, we learn that Hideki Matsui—not Jorge Posada—will DH in today’s game. For the past 2 days, there had been some debate as to whether or not Posada would DH given his numbers against Angel starter, John Lackey. Girardi’s decision to start Matsui as the DH allows Posada to come in later for Jose Molina while keeping Matsui in the lineup, simultaneously.

In Game 2 against the Angels, for the first 4 innings, A.J. Burnett was dominant. However, in the 5th frame, the wheels came off and the bad Burnett arrived, as he allowed 2 hits, hit a batter, walked a batter, and gave up a run on a wild pitch (in that order). He managed to escape the inning with only 2 ER on the board for the Angels, though, they seemed poised to score a lot more given Burnett’s complete lack of command in that particular half inning (blame it on the bats, I guess).

Former scout Frank Piliere (Fanhouse) noted that mechanical issues were behind Burnett’s struggles:

Saunders’ performance aside, the key to the night might have been the Angels’ inability to land a knockout blow on a struggling Burnett in the fifth inning. If you examine him closely in that inning, pretty much all the things that could go wrong in his delivery did. Not only did his command suffer, but so did his velocity and the bite on his breaking ball. Normally at 94-96 mph, he was pitching around 91-92 at some points in the trouble innings.

Looking more closely at his delivery, it was clear in several slow-motion replays what was going wrong. Continuing to open up his front shoulder early as he tends to do when he’s going badly, Burnett was suddenly pulling off of his release point, causing the ball to run to his arm side. This is what caused the decrease in velocity and also the loss of command. It also made it far more difficult for him to get on top of his big breaking ball. Instead, we saw him getting around that pitch as his arm slot dropped. When the front shoulder opens, the elbow and arm slot come down. Burnett at his best is on top of the ball, producing that explosive velocity and downer breaking ball.

This was an inning where not even Burnett’s stuff was at its typical level. With his mechanics betraying him, little command of his breaking ball and his velocity down the Angels had their opportunity to pounce on him. They did push two runs across, but this had the makings of a meltdown inning that Yankee fans have seen from Burnett at times in 2009. Lots of things could have gotten Los Angeles a win in Game 2, but the inability to break Burnett might be the most haunting thing about the loss.

Burnett’s mechanical problems have been documented throughout the year, so Piliere’s analysis doesn’t come as a surprise. Hopefully, with the weather much more favorable in Game 5 than it was in Game 2, he’ll be able to maintain control of his mechanics tonight and lead the Yankees to an ALCS victory.

Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images

Yesterday, during the bottom half of the 11th inning and with the score tied, 4-4, Joe Girardi decided to replace David Robertson with Alfredo Aceves. Robertson had already retired both Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales, two of LA’s more dangerous hitters, and he seemed poised to dispose of the third batter, Howie Kendrick, who had already tripled and hit a homer run earlier in the game. However, Robertson would not get that chance, as Girardi—apparently influenced by something within his neatly organized blue binder of information—hurried to the mound in order to make a pitching change. Given a specific scouting report on Kendrick (or a series of reports), the Aceves-Kendrick pairing seemed like a more effective option to Girardi, despite Robertson’s stellar work out of the bullpen for the first two outs.

Of course, as we all know, Girardi’s decision to bring in Aceves ended up backfiring on both him and the Yankees. Kendrick quickly singled and then scored the winning run after the almighty Jeff Mathis hit a walk-off double out to left-center. The Rally Monkey strikes again. Now, while the game is certainly over, questions remain as to why Girardi chose Aceves over Robertson? What did he see in his blue binder that ultimately forced his hand? In order to better understand the decision, I turn to Frankie Piliere (Fanhouse), a former scout with the Texas Rangers. Here’s his take on the controversial call that many will argue cost the Yankees a commanding 3-0 lead in the ALCS.

The obvious question is what exactly was in that book? Well, let’s take it from the top. Robertson, a right-hander, throws a fastball at 91-94 mph with what scout’s like to a call late hop. He likes to change eye levels and gets swings and misses up with the fastball and down with his plus 12-6 curveball. He has back-end-of-the-’pen type stuff.

Aceves, on the other hand, has more of a starter’s approach, pitching to contact with a number of pitches to which he can turn. He has mostly been working at 89-91 with the fastball in recent outings, but what is concerning is the feel for his secondary pitches. In his playoff outings, his breaking balls have been elevated, often backing up on him over the plate.

So, what was Girardi’s line of thinking? He’s unlikely to read off his scouting report to the media, but it obviously came down to the advanced scouting. The Yankees have had fits with Howie Kendrick since he arrived in the big leagues, mainly because they just can’t seem to be able to get inside on him. With that in mind, it looked like with Aceves they were hoping to get him out away with soft stuff on pitches moving to the outside. Keep in mind that, just innings earlier, he had pounded a 96-mph fastball off of Joba Chamberlain for a triple.

Kendrick is a hitter that needs to be attacked with patterns and a mix of speeds. He pounds the fastball, and especially against New York, doesn’t seem to let many mistakes get by him. All three of his hits on Monday came off some kind of fastball — cutters from Pettitte and Aceves and straight heat from Chamberlain. Robertson tends to let the fastball ride high with his four-seamer, and with Kendrick’s approach it’s likely the Yankee manager sensed a repeat of his at-bat against Chamberlain.

These are all interesting insights that can be further examined. Essentially, according to Piliere, Girardi brought in Aceves because, as a former starter, he knows how to mix his pitches and change speeds, whereas Robertson is more of a fastball, curveball reliever that will try to sneak a high fastball by batters for a strikeout (along with the low curve). However, Kendrick does, indeed, love the fastball—pitch value data agrees—and he had already made an example out of Joba Chamberlain’s fastball during the 7th inning (and Joba’s pitch is considered more overpowering than Robertson’s). Therefore, approaching Kendrick with a different set of tools might have enticed Girardi. With Aceves’ repertoire featuring a fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup, perhaps Girardi thought that this particular combination of pitches would prove more effective if located properly (i.e., away from Kendrick).

The pitch-by-pitch data (Gameday) seems to be in congruence with this notion, as Aceves threw Kendrick three 89-91 mph cutters to the outer edge of the zone in an attempt to induce a ground ball or soft fly. The cutters weren’t necessarily “soft stuff,” which works against Piliere’s theory, yet the location and the movement were away from Kendrick, rather than on the inner part of the plate (as Piliere suggested). Aceves could not perform effectively, though. His command was poor and Kendrick took advantage of a misplaced cutter that sat in the middle of the zone, sending it directly by Aceves’ outstretched glove for a clutch single.

This, then—the pitching style employed by Alfredo Aceves—explains why Girardi thought it best for Aceves, not Robertson, to face Kendrick (Robertson has a slider that he could have used, but he rarely ever throws it). At least now, with this information from Piliere and assuming that it’s somewhat accurate, there is a better understanding of what Girardi was attempting to do. Still, while his decision-making is made clearer given Piliere’s analysis, Piliere himself seems to believe that Girardi should have exercised better judgment when weighing a season’s worth of scouting reports comparing pitcher and hitter styles versus a reliever’s most recent performances.

Regardless of the scouting report favoring Aceves’ style against Kendrick, it’s questionable whether a scouting report should trump the consideration of recent performances. Robertson has been free and easy of late, getting through his fastball, getting to the outside corner on righties, and commanding his sharp breaking ball. Aceves has been quite the opposite, looking tentative in recent outings and appearing to push his breaking ball. Many will call out Girardi for relying on the scouting report rather than having a feel for how his current pitcher is looking and conversely how shaky Aceves has looked lately.

Bob Klapisch (The Record) offered a similar view late last night. “[N]o one ever said he was blessed with the gift of tuition,” noted Klapisch about Girardi. “Girardi instead lives safely within the margins, protecting himself with numbers. Managers who choose this path never have to believe their own eyes, which is why Girardi could ignore the fact that Robertson had dominated Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales for the first two outs in the 11th.” Both, Klapisch and Piliere are stating that Girardi failed to consider recent context—immediate context in this case—choosing, instead, to allow a lifeless scouting report to guide his final call. However, as with any analysis—let’s be clear, Girardi’s decision was an on-the-spot analysis—one should aim to use all manners of data present, whether they be quantitative (scouting reports) or qualitative (recent performance). For Girardi, he mistakenly chose only the former.

In the end, I think most of us would agree that Girardi made a bad decision. His strict adherence to a specific type of data likely hurt the team’s chances in Game 3. But, to be fair, that does not mean he is a bad manager. Furthermore, that also does not mean that the Yankee players, and their fans, should continue to dwell on the move, especially since the team’s offense was the main culprit for last night’s loss. Today is a new day and the Bombers still hold a 2-1 advantage in the series. With 4 games left to play before a winner is decided, that’s all that really matters.

Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

Photo by John Munson/Star-Ledger

Here are the lineups, via LoHud:

YANKEES
Derek Jeter SS
Johnny Damon LF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Hideki Matsui DH
Jorge Posada C
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Melky Cabrera CF

Pitching: LHP Andy Pettitte (1-0, 1.42 ERA)

ANGELS
Chone Figgins 3B
Bobby Abreu RF
Torii Hunter CF
Vladimir Guerrero DH
Juan Rivera LF
Kendry Morales 1B
Howie Kendrick 2B
Mike Napoli C
Erick Aybar SS

Pitching: RHP Jered Weaver (1-0, 1.23)

TIME/TV: 4:07 p.m., FOX

Here are the Angels’ numbers against Andy Pettitte.

Here are the Yankees’ numbers against Jered Weaver.

Be on the lookout for another A-Bomb. Alex has 5 hits against Weaver in 15 AB’s. 4 of them were home runs. Beyond that, Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira are two guys to watch, based on their lines against the better Weaver.

Via Marc Carig (props to RAB), we learn that the Yankees will start CC Sabathia on short rest for Game 4 of the ALCS.