When the Rays shockingly took the division in 2008, many Yankee fans dismissed it as an aberration, and suggested that the Rays would fall out of contention once their current crop of younger stars neared free agency. However, it seems that the Rays have a contingency plan in place to prevent that from happening. From Buster Olney:
But if they languish in the AL East race behind the Yankees and Red Sox, or if they got hit by a wave of injuries, then there would appear to be a chance that they would start looking to deal Crawford, Pena, Soriano and others.
Just like sailors in a lifeboat, the Rays must constantly bail payroll, whenever and wherever they can, which is why they must rely, always, on the young and cheap players whenever and however they can. “It’s what we have to do,” said Andrew Friedman, the Rays’ general manager. “It’s our lot in life. We have to have as many different options of talented players to mix and match and construct a 25-man roster as we can.”
The development of three rising prospects in particular will be crucial for the Rays, for this season, and for seasons to come…..
(Buster goes on to provide reports on Wade Davis, Desmond Jennings, and Jeremy Hellickson).
Recently, I had the opportunity to ask a MLB GM with a payroll similar to that of the Rays about the way in which teams operate under such constraints. He explained to me that teams like his and the Rays work in cycles, whereby they attempt to develop a crop of prospects, ride them to contention through their arbitration years, and then trade them for more prospects so as to start the cycle over. In this way, they hope to contend for 2-3 seasons, with each cycle lasting 6-7 years. This is how it works for most clubs, with the Marlins, Athletics, and Indians providing a fine example of this system.
However, the Rays have become so good at developing talent that, at least for now, they seem poised to bypass the downturn of their current cycle. As they shed players such as Crawford and Scott Kazmir, they are ready to replace them with mega-prospects such as the three discussed by Buster. With this base of talent available to them (they are a top 3 system by every ranking I have seen), they should remain a threat to the Yankees for a while yet.
Photo Credit: NY Daily News
Much has been made of the incredible quality of the AL East. With the three best teams in the AL residing in the East and the Blue Jays playing well as well, the division has the look of a powerhouse that could last for some time. One team that is not being spoken about much but may have just as bright a future as the others is the Orioles. ESPN took a look at their amazing young outfield:
The O’s also have baseball’s most dynamic young outfield. It’s enough to make the old-timers in town reflect wistfully on the Frank Robinson-Don Buford-Paul Blair days at Memorial Stadium.
Iris full movie Jones, 23, and Markakis and Nolan Reimold, both 25, give Baltimore a threesome worth envying. They’re athletic, affordable and loaded with promise and tools. Factor in the contribution of DH and occasional left fielder Luke Scott, who has 16 homers and a .569 slugging percentage, and no one cares that erstwhile phenom Felix Pie is as big a washout in Baltimore as he was in Chicago.
With that athletic, powerful outfield and Matt Wieters being a can’t miss prospect, the O’s look poised to be an offensive force for many years to come. What about pitching, you ask:
The big trio of Tillman, Matusz and Arrieta all likely will play major roles in Baltimore’s 2010 rotation, but with that much young pitching, predicting a breakout season comparable to last year’s Rays seems a bit much. A better comparison, as far as a step forward goes, is that next year’s Orioles might be like this year’s Rangers: truly competitive while giving fans the sense that the best is yet to come. The three best teams in the American League all play in the East this year, but that number might be four by 2011.
House of the Dead movie Better Luck Tomorrow The Orioles have a pretty good shot at being competitive within two seasons, and the Blue Jays have enough young pitching that a good return on Roy Halladay may nudge them into the 90 win range within a season or two as well. With the Rays, Sox, and Yankees looking loaded for the future as well, the Al East may soon boast 5 playoff caliber clubs. That should make for some exhilarating pennant races.
I was listening to Friday’s ESPN Baseball Today’s podcast and was less than shocked to discover they had predicted the Yankees to finish third in the A.L. East. Now, I have no problem with anyone picking the Yankees behind Tampa or Boston. They are both tremendous clubs, and I think it’s pretty much a toss up between which of the three mega-powers will emerge from the division. I did have a problem, however, with the ignorant reasoning that went along with their prediction. There are two specific issues I want to address.
#1: The Yankees were predicted to win 87 or 88 games. What!!!??? This is just sheer lazy thought. All Karabell and Pascarelli had to do was look at the records last year to find that the Yanks won 89 games with 2 decent starters but now, with 5 starters ranging from solid to studly, the Pinstripers will somehow win LESS!? They offer zero explanation for why they will win less games despite substantial upgrades at catcher, first base and each rotation spot. Additionally, every major statistical projection model in existence has the Yankees winning at least 90+ games, and there’s a good reason for that: these models actually look at statistics!
#2: The Yankees have a shaky bullpen which is much worse than Boston’s. This is more lazy, unprepared commentary that is a typical belief among the media types who don’t bother looking at statistics. One easy glance at the rankings last year will show that the Yanks had the 5th best pen in the A.L. which was two spots BETTER than Boston, despite having to pitch over 60 more innings!! Anyone with any knowledge of the game will tell you that overextending a bullpen due to poor starting pitching will wreak havoc on bullpen stats, yet the Bombers were a solid fifth despite pitching the third most innings in the A.L. They’ve also fortified the pen by having Marte and Coke available all year, which should make them among the most versatile relief corps in all of baseball. Add in probable appearances by young studs like Melancon and Robertson by mid-season and there’s little question that the pen should be better, yet somehow Pascarelli and Karabell insist that it’s sooo much worse than Boston’s? How does that make any sense?
I would have some sympathy for these guys because they have to cover all of baseball and can’t be expected to have detailed knowledge of the vagaries of every single club, but this wasn’t an off-the-cuff series of answers to some live q & a session. This was a prepared segment in which they had time to do research in advance. They knew they were previewing the A.L. East and had plenty of time to take a long look at all the relevant stats, but they clearly did not do so. These are the clearest and most obvious stats to look at, so they obviously did absolutely no research at all. They just lazily mailed in their performance without even trying. Come on guys, I know the podcast is free, but take some pride in your work.
As I noted earlier this week, the AL East has become a division dominated by pitching. Dugout Central took a look at the projections for the rotations of the three contenders in the division, and reached an unsurprising conclusion:
Team Projection IP HR BB SO FIP
Yankees Total 840.3 72 265 696 3.60
Red Sox Total 808.7 83 292 638 4.04
Rays Total 769.3 88 232 637 3.94We can see that even here the Yankees reign supreme, and quite significantly too. They get the most IPs out of their starters, they give up the least home runs and strike out the most batters. Injuries can, of course, change things. But if they stay healthy, the Yankees rotation is a force to be reckoned with – at least this is what the projections say.
There you have it. Bookmark this post, so that when you get into arguments with Red Sox fans about this, you can point out that past performance suggests that Boston has the third best rotation in the division, with the Yankees being comfortably in the lead. If all three teams stay healthy, the Yankees should be carried by their pitching to a division crown.
The Al East has long been known as a division where pitchers go to die. ERA’s soared as the powerful offenses of even the worst teams in the division bludgeoned teams in endless games marked by frequent pitching changes and plenty of runs. However, the tide seems to be shifting, as Peter Gammons points out an a surprisingly well balanced article:
But as we reach the Ides of March, it remains evident that the American League East has three teams that can think about winning 95 games for one major reason — pitching. It would be four teams and 90 wins if Toronto had A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum. And it is pitching that has the Orioles thinking that in 2010 or 2011 they will be back in the high life again for the first time since 1997.
What the Yankees spent for CC Sabathia and Burnett has been well-chronicled, along with what it means to have Chien-Ming Wang make 30-something starts. And a full season for Joba Chamberlain and another one for Andy Pettitte. And unlike the last couple of seasons — such as 2008 when seven pitchers made at least nine starts — the Yankees have what seems to be championship depth because Phil Hughes has had an exceptional spring. They also seem encouraged that they can keep Chamberlain in the rotation because of the arms in front of Mariano Rivera — Phil Coke, Brian Bruney, Damaso Marte, et al.
Oh, there may be circumstances under which Chamberlain might go back to the ‘pen because of his unique ability to fill either role, but, for now, the Yankees think this is the most stable pitching they’ve had in years.
He goes on to list the pitching riches in Tampa and Boston, as well as the great potential for Toronto and Baltimore to have great staffs in the near future. Looking around the division, there are few young major offensive stars on the horizon outside of Baltimore. Pitching is the future in the Al East, and that should make for some exciting and competitive baseball going forward.
RLYW has released their latest projected standings, which they created with Alex Rodriguez’s injury in mind. They projected that he will miss 30 percent of the season, and they found that the Yankees still project to win the division. In their simulations, the Yankees win close to 98 games on average, with Boston at 96 and Tampa at 91.
While predictions are generally meaningless, this does show that statistically, the Yankees should be able to weather a month or two without A-Rod. Although his absence may have some sort of psychological impact on the rest of the roster, the numbers suggest that the Yankees have amassed enough talent to survive the loss of one of baseball’s premier talents.
Kat O’Brien did an interview with AJ Burnett, and there were some interesting nuggets in it. Burnett has plenty of confidence, but understands the doubts that people have about his ability to stay healthy. He credits his relationship with Roy Halladay in helping learn how to best take care of his body. He also had this to say:
“I really wanted to stay in the American League East, from a competitive level,” Burnett said. “I really learned the American League hitters well over the last several years, and I wanted to come back in the American League East.”
Burnett said he paid closer attention to the hitters during his three years in Toronto, learning the opposition at a deeper level than he had previously. The studying paid off. In the past three seasons, Burnett went 19-7 with a 3.29 ERA in 34 starts against AL East clubs. Overall, he was 38-26 with a 3.94 ERA in that stretch.
Those are some stellar numbers against a division loaded with great hitters. It is refreshing to finally sign a free agent pitcher who wants to be in the spotlight of New York. If Burnett stays healthy, expect him to have a big year.
