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10 Tommy Hunter facts to warm your heart

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 26 Responses »
Oct 192010

It’s time to forget about Cliff Lee, about RISP, about 13:1 K/BB ratios, about a 2-1 series deficit, about Cliff Lee, about a Game 7 started by Cliff Lee, about the 9th inning bullpen implosion, about the Yankees’ starter this evening and about, of course, Cliff Lee.  Let’s focus on Tommy Hunter.  There are a few things about him that you’re gonna want to know.

1. There were 71 pitchers in the American League in 2010 who threw more than 100 innings.  Of those pitchers, Tommy Hunter had the 9th highest FIP.  This is bad.  FIP is an acronym for Fielding Independent Pitching.  It examines the pitcher’s strikeouts, walks and home runs and tells you how well a pitcher pitched regardless of his fielding.  While there’s legitimate dispute about whether a pitcher can control his home run rate, FIP cuts down on a lot of the noise present in ERA due to fluctuations in BABIP and defense. What I’m trying to tell you is that Tommy Hunter does a poor job at controlling the things he’s supposed to control.

2. Of the 71 AL pitchers with 100 innings in 2010, Tommy Hunter’s strikeout rate is eleventh worst.  He was beat out in the race to the bottom by such luminaries as Nick Blackburn, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Joe Saunders.  Maybe next year, Tommy.

3.  This is a real-life picture of Tommy Hunter when he was pitching for the Rangers’ Double-A affiliate, the Frisco Roughriders:

hunter

Seriously.

4.  Tommy Hunter had the 2nd highest strand rate of the 71 AL pitchers with 100 innings or more.  The first highest was Brian Duensing.  Hunter’s strand rate was 10% higher than the average of 71%. It’s probably safe to bet that he won’t replicate these results in the future.

5.  Tommy Hunter’s nickname is “Canada’s Country Gentleman”.  Oops, wrong Tommy Hunter.  I was thinking of the 73 year old Canadian country music performer, best known for hit singles such as “Bill Jones General Store”, “Born to be a Gypsy” and “Walk with Your Neighbour” (note the Canadian spelling).  There was another Tommy Hunter from North Carolina known for his fiddlin’, but sadly he passed away in 1993.  According to Wikipedia, this Tommy Hunter doesn’t have a cool nickname like Canada’s Country Gentleman.  However, Wikipedia does provide this lovely picture of him:

hunter

Derp.

6.  When I said that Wikipedia doesn’t list a cool nickname for Hunter, I didn’t mean that he doesn’t have one at all.  He has one but Wikipedia, and presumably the world, doesn’t know it yet.  If you check out his Baseball Reference page you find that it’s sponsored by two individuals known as “Joe and Dan”.  Unfortunately, Joe and Dan didn’t link to any website, so I’m left to assume that they’re just two dudes with a love for high FIP pitchers.  Regardless, they say his nickname is “Big Game”.  Big Game Tommy Hunter.  Tommy Big Game Hunter.  Either one just rolls right off the tongue.

7. Tommy Hunter had the 2nd lowest ERA-FIP discrepancy and the third lowest BABIP.  So if you happen to wander into a 7-Eleven  at the same time as Tommy Hunter be sure to ask him to buy you a lotto ticket before his good luck train runs out of fuel, careens off the tracks and explodes and melts in the white hot flames of statistical  regression.

8.  Per Aaron Gleeman, Hunter gave up 21 home runs in 128 innings.  Gleeman notes how bad this is: “Among all the AL pitchers who threw at least 120 innings this season only Javier Vazquez and Brian Bannister had a higher home run rate. And he’ll be facing a Yankees lineup that was one of just three MLB teams to smack 200 or more homers this season.”  Yes, yes he will.

9.  Tommy Hunter is worse against left-handed batters than righties.  In fact, he’s somewhat terrible against lefties.  Maybe it’s his sub-par arsenal, maybe it’s his inexperience, but lefties make Canada’s Country Gentleman sing the blues.  Here’s Gleeman again:

“During his 250-inning career left-handed batters have hit .285 with an .832 OPS against Hunter, compared to .241 with a .678 OPS by right-handed batters. Not surprisingly in two previous starts against the Yankees he’s 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA, allowing seven runs on 14 hits in 9.1 innings. He also lasted just four innings against the Rays in Game 4 of the ALDS, taking the loss.”

Lovely.  My best guess for tonight’s lineup is Jeter-Swisher-Teixeira-Rodriguez-Cano-Posada-Berkman-Granderson-Gardner.  That’s Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and seven lefties.  If they’re going to pound a starter in the playoffs, tonight’s the night to do it.

10.  AJ Burnett has a better FIP, xFIP, strikeout rate, ground ball rate, tERA and SIERA than Tommy Hunter.  He also doesn’t have a fluky BABIP or strand rate.  It’s not much, but I’ll take it.

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Overstating the Importance of a 4th Starter

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 6 Responses »
Sep 282010

Since AJ Burnett’s awful performance in last night’s game against the Blue Jays, the pundits have ramped up the “Yankees have no pitching” storyline. Of course, these articles tend to ignore the similar lack of depth in all of the AL contenders’ rotations, and make it seem like the Yankees have major pitching issues. As I showed yesterday, this is simply not the case. More on point, it seems that many writers and fans are overstating the importance of the 4th starter in the postseason.



As you can see, the Yankees could use their 4th starter just twice over the entire postseason (Game 4 or 5 in ALCS and World Series), while only using a pitcher on 3 days rest one time (CC Sabathia in Game 4 of the ALDS). So we are talking about two games for AJ Burnett, likely matched up against Wade Davis, Jeff Niemmann, or Tommie Hunter in the first one and a Joe Blanton type in the second. While I clearly do not trust Burnett, the opposing pitchers are not exactly world beaters and the Yankees have the advantage in terms of offense.

Do I wish that Burnett was pitching well and that the Yankees had 4 solid starters? Certainly. But the struggles of their 4th best pitcher is not the death knell for the Yankee season that some are making it out to be.

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Never leave us, Good AJ

Posted by Stephen R. at 12:00 pm No Responses »
Sep 182010

As the Yankees slump deepened over the past ten days, the fears of fans were laid bare.  Some people attacked Girardi’s bullpen and bench management while others were simply frustrated by the fact that the entire offense had seemingly decided to slump at the same time. Another common fear about this year’s iteration of the Yankees was the starting pitching, which has looked at times like it will be CC, hopefully Andy, and pray for runs.  Enter AJ Burnett. While Phil Hughes’ start against Tampa a few days ago was good, Burnett performed admirably last night and is making a strong case to be the 3rd starter in the ALDS.

Observationally, Burnett looked good last night.  Over 7 innings he allowed six hits and only walked one batter, striking out five. The return of the strikeouts and the lack of walks is particularly encouraging.  Two of his earned runs came on home runs, one to Adam Jones in the fourth inning and one to Andino in the seventh inning, and the Orioles never really sustained a strong rally against Burnett.  He worked with his familiar arsenal of fastball and curve, throwing 67 fastballs and 38 curveballs, and got very good results on the curveball.  Despite throwing it for a strike only 58% of the time, he got 5 swinging strikes on the pitch.  Burnett has had difficulty with his curveball all year.  It’s long been his best pitch, even one the best curveballs in baseball, but this year that hasn’t been the case.  The Fangraphs’ Pitch Type Value chart shows that his curveball has essentially fallen off the cliff this year, so getting it back as a viable strikeout pitch could mean big things for Burnett.  Another notable aspect of his outing was his declining pitch velocity as the game went on.  From this chart on Brooks Baseball, we can see that he clearly tired towards the end of the game:

Brooks Baseball Burnett velo

In fact, Andhino’s home run in the seventh inning came off a 92 mph fastball, his 100th pitch of the game.  The location was decent enough, mid-level and on the inside corner, but Burnett just didn’t have the juice on the pitch to blow it by him.  It’s possible that Girardi would have already pulled Burnett if this had been a playoff matchup, but Burnett may also benefit from a day or two of extra rest down the stretch.  He’s now thrown 175 innings on the year, on top of 234 (postseason included) in 2009 and 220 in 2008, a very heavy workload for someone once considered fragile and injury-prone.

Chad Jennings had an interesting note on LoHud last evening about AJ. Burnett and Girardi had an open-door meeting after last night’s start.  Girardi didn’t comment on it, but Burnett said that it was about “turning the page” and putting the past results behind him.  “I can’t erase my record or my ERA, stuff like that,” Burnett said. “But I can definitely get to where I’m supposed to go.”  It’s just a postgame quote, but Burnett has been a much better pitcher lately.  In his last four starts he’s thrown 24 innings with a 4.50 ERA, striking out 24 and walking 10, and one of those starts was rain-shortened.  Having him back on track for the 2010 playoffs would be a gigantic boon for the club.  If he’s able to take the reins and become the 3rd starter for the ALDS, it’s possible the club could move Hughes to the bullpen for that series and save him for the next round.  Burnett has a few more starts before the end of the year to make his case, and he’s moving in the right direction.

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Splitting Starts In Postseason?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 4 Responses »
Sep 162010

Joel Sherman checks in with a thought that is right on the money:

The Yankees’ plans for their playoff rotation should look like this:

Ride CC Sabathia, hope for Andy Pettitte and turn the rest of the games into a version of tag-team wrestling.

The leash traditionally is short in the postseason for a starter since each game is so precious. But, due to pedigree and trust factor, the Yankees will allow Sabathia and Pettitte (health permitting) to attempt to work through some early-inning crises.
But their other starters should just put blinders on when it comes to the bullpen. Because relievers are going to be up early and often. Maybe A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes will get starts. However, Ivan Nova or Javier Vazquez or another long man will be on alert from the outset.

With the quality that the bullpen has given the Yankees over the second half, it makes sense for Girardi to have a quick hook on his starters in the postseason. Considering that no team plays more than three games consecutively in the playoffs, Joe can run his best relievers out to the mound each night without fear of drastically reducing their effectiveness. Furthermore, the relievers are being rested now for precisely that purpose. I would expect Girardi to go to his bullpen early and often if his starter begins to lose his stuff, particularly if it is Hughes or Burnett on the hill.

Additionally, I think it is highly likely that the Yankees will have Javier Vazquez and either Ivan Nova or Dustin Moseley on the playoff roster for exactly the purpose that Sherman outlines. With only 3 starters needed in the ALDS, it is possible that the Yankees will have 3 starters/long relievers in the bullpen for that series. If the Game 3 starter begins to falter in the early innings, there is absolutely no reason for Joe to hesitate in going to his bullpen.

I happen to be fairly confident that Phil Hughes can give them a solid start in Game 3 of the ALDS and render this discussion moot. But if he begins to struggle, the Yankees should have plenty of options who can come in and give them a solid performance.

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Who Starts In The First Round?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 8:56 am 6 Responses »
Sep 132010

I’ll be discussing potential playoff opponents later today, but I have been having a discussion with a number of people on Twitter about the possible playoff rotation and wanted to bring the issue up here. The schedule for the first round, no matter the opponent, is as follows:

Game 1: October 6th
Game 2: October 7th
Off Day
Game 3: October 9th
Game 4: October 10th
Off Day
Game 5: October 12th

The scheduled off days allow the Yankees to go with a three man rotation if they so choose, which is the plan that I would follow. The real question is the identity of the third pitcher, with AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes being the frontrunners for that spot. Here is how it would break down:

Game 1: Sabathia
Game 2: Pettitte
Game 3: Burnett/Hughes
Game 4: Sabathia (3 days rest)
Game 5: Pettitte (full rest)

Only CC would be going on three days rest, and Andy Pettitte would be slated to go in a pivotal Game 5. This setup allows the Yankees to best maximize their resources by using their ace and their battle-tested lefty twice each in the first round, limiting the exposure of the weaker elements of the rotation. While some may be concerned about using CC on three days rest, I think he showed last season that pitching on short rest is not a problem for him.

As for the 3rd starter, the right pick may depend on whether Game 3 is home or away. If it is an away game, Hughes is the obvious pick, as he has been strong on the road all year and seems to have an affinity for pitching in Texas. If Game 3 is at home, the gap between the two pitchers shrinks considerably, and I could see an argument for either. I would still prefer Hughes, as he is more likely to keep the team in a game even without his best stuff, while Burnett always has the specter of disaster hanging over him.

What would you do?

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Beckett vs. Burnett

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 4 Responses »
Aug 082010

NYDN Burnett

Photo courtesy of the NYDN

Tonight, AJ Burnett and Josh Beckett will face off in the third game of the Yankees four-game series with the Red Sox.  This will be the first time Burnett and Beckett matched up since last summer’s epic 15th inning game that ended with an Alex Rodriguez walkoff home run.  It also marks the third time Burnett will face the Red Sox this season.  It’s the fourth time Beckett will face the Yankees, despite only having made 11 total starts this entire season.  In a way, Beckett and Burnett are two very similar pitchers.  They are both southerners.  They both feature an arsenal that relies on a hard fastball and a knee-buckling curveball.  They’ve both struggled with injury and inconsistency throughout their careers. They both have the so-called “shutdown stuff” that makes it possible for them to dominate a lineup when on, and they are both very well-paid.

Burnett faced the Red Sox early this year on April 6, a 6-4 win for the Yankees.  He lasted 5 innings, giving up 7 hits, 4 runs and 3 earned runs, striking out 5 and walking only 1.  His next start was not so pleasant, as he yielded 8 earned runs over 4.1 innings, striking out 4 and walking 3.  On the year this leaves him with a 10.61 ERA over 9.1 innings, 16 hits, 11 ER, 4 walks and 9 strikeouts. Beckett has fared just as poorly against the Yankees.  In his four starts he has only lasted 14.2 innings, giving up 17 earned runs, walking 9 and striking out 15, giving him an ERA of 10.43.

The most memorable outing by Beckett against the Yankees in 2010 was on May 7.  Beckett was untouchable for the first three innings, striking out 4 and allowing only one hit.  In the fourth inning, the wheels started to come off.  After getting Nick Johnson to ground out, he walked Teixeira and allowed a single to Rodriguez, before striking out Cano.  He then allowed a home run to 2010 All-Star Nick Swisher, and allowed two more hits before getting Randy Winn to ground out.  Remember when the team had Randy Winn and Nick Johnson in the lineup?  Those were the days.  Beckett held it together in the fifth inning, but in the sixth inning things got real again.  After allowing a double to Rodriguez, Beckett plunked Cano in the knee, causing him to leave the game and be replaced by Ramiro Pena.  Later in the inning, Beckett buzzed Cervelli twice in the same at-bat, throwing near his head, before hitting Jeter in the back with the bases loaded.

Despite the fact that Sabathia barked at Beckett from the dugout after he threw near Cervelli’s head, there were no HBPs eleven days later when Sabathia and Beckett squared off again.  It was Beckett’s last start before going on the disabled list, and the Yankees got 5 earned runs over 4.2 innings off him.  It was nearly two months before Beckett would take the mound again.  Since returning on July 23rd, Beckett seems to have gotten back on track.  In three starts he’s thrown 20.2 innings, striking out 18 and walking only 4 with a 2.18 ERA.  Similarly, Burnett seemed to have turned a corner after his disastrous June.   In the month of July he made 5 starts, throwing 27 innings and striking out 20, walking only 9 with a 2.00 ERA.  However, he was horrifically bad in his last outing against the Blue Jays, giving up 8 earned runs over 4.2 innings.

Obviously, AJ Burnett and Josh Beckett are both very important for their respective clubs going forward.  The Red Sox are teetering on the edge of falling out of contention, and will need Beckett to perform at his peak in order to have a shot at the playoffs.  Similarly, the Yankees need Burnett’s best over the coming months, given Vazquez’s recent bad performance and his acknowledgement of having a dead arm and the creeping innings cap for Phil Hughes.  Pitchers duels are my favorite kinds of games.  Here’s to a two and a half hour game ended with a Swisher walkoff home run.

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Good Josh, Bad Josh?

Posted by Stephen R. at 4:30 pm 6 Responses »
May 082010

AJ Burnett has the reputation for being able to throw a no-hitter or a complete bomb every time he takes the mound. His stuff is excellent but often unpredictable.  If he locates his fastball and can command his “hook”, as he likes to call it, then batters beware.  If he can’t, then he sometimes gets lit up in spectacular fashion.  Blue Jays fans and Yankees fans have a name for this Jekyl and Hyde act: Good AJ/Bad AJ.

On Twitter two weeks ago, JMK the Overshare asked if any pitcher other than Burnett lived entirely by the “good/bad” moniker.  Oliver Perez, Carlos Zambrano and Cole Hamels were tossed out, and I suggested Josh Beckett.  Is this fair?  Let us find out!

First, the methodology.  I’ve evaluated every start by Burnett and Beckett in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 and classifying them as either Good, Bad or Average.  Over that time period, Burnett made 99 starts and Beckett made 95. As a side note, would you have guessed that Burnett’s made more regular season starts than Beckett since the start of the 2007 season?  I would not have.

Using Baseball Reference’s fantastic Play Index, I searched between 2007 and 2010 and discovered that there were 15,456 total starts.  Of those starts, 3,567 had a WPA of over 0.200, a percentage of 23.1%. Conversely, 3,878 had a WPA of under -0.200, a percentage of 25.1%.  Using these cutoffs, I classified Burnett and Beckett’s starts.  Any start with a WPA of over 0.200 received a “Good”.  Any start with a WPA of below -0.200 would receive a “Bad”.  Anything in between would receive an “Average”.

The average WPA for Burnett’s 99 starts is 0.045, and the standard deviation on that range is 0.261.  For Beckett, the average WPA for his 95 starts is 0.068, or .023 higher, and the standard deviation on that range is 0.25.  Off the bat, this shows us that Beckett averages a higher WPA per start and has a less extreme distribution of range.  By applying the .200/-.200 labels, we see that in 2007-2010 Burnett had 19 Bad starts, 47 Average starts, and 33 good Starts. In the same time period, Beckett had 18 Bad starts, 45 Average starts, and 32 good starts. They appear strikingly similar.

From there I ran the same calculations for Jon Lester and CC Sabathia, neither of whom have the same Jekyl and Hyde reputation.  Here’s what I found:

Here we see, and note that I’m excluding Lester’s 2007 campaign, that Sabathia has a roughly similar Average Start percentage, but less Bad starts and more Good starts.  Lester, however has both a higher Good and Bad percentage.  We might conclude here that Lester deserves the Jekyl and Hyde moniker more than any of the four, but I think that would be inaccurate.  Here’s why:

When you dive into the underlying information behind the bad starts, you see that Burnett has a higher average Bad Start score than anyone at -0.337. Behind him is Beckett with a -0.329.  On the Good side, Sabathia has the highest Average score with 0.375 with Lester right behind him at 0.361.  Burnett comes in third, with Beckett in last.  To me this shows that Burnett does indeed have a high upside and downside risk, confirming what fans have long thought.  Josh Beckett has a strong element of Jekyl/Hyde in him as well, something that was illustrated perfectly last night at Fenway when he dominated through the first few innings before collapsing in the sixth.  CC Sabathia and Jon Lester have fantastic Good scores, but seem to avoid the huge explosions.  In fact, Sabathia’s Bad score would be dramatically lower if you excluded his early season struggles in 2007 and 2008.

What do you think?  Is there a better way to quantify the Jekyl and Hyde act for starting pitchers?

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