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Feb 102011

You're awfully big, Jesus. (Photo-NJ.com)

Here it is folks:

  1. Jesus Montero
  2. Gary Sanchez
  3. Manuel Banuelos
  4. Dellin Betances
  5. Andrew Brackman
  6. Slade Heathcott
  7. Adam Warren
  8. Austin Romine
  9. Graham Stoneburner
  10. Hector Noesi
  11. David Adams
  12. Jose Ramirez
  13. JR Murphy
  14. Cito Culver
  15. Brandon Laird
  16. Corban Joseph
  17. Mason Williams
  18. Bryan Mitchell
  19. David Phelps
  20. Rob Segedin
  21. Brett Marshall

That’s right, 21 prospects, not 20, or 30: 21. I settled on 21 because I feel pretty good about 21 names. I’m more of an upside/ceiling type man myself. I think in any ranking though you have to consider closeness to the majors and the fact that a 3 or 4 type starter is pretty damn valuable these days. If you’re wondering why Eduardo Nunez is not on this list than you obviously don’t follow me on Twitter. I tend to like athletic, up the middle talents who show a lot of tools and potential. Angelo Gumbs was a near miss for me. Let me know what you think and disagree with of course- I look forward to a lively and profanity riddled comment section threatening me with great physical harm and/or death.

Frank Piliere of AOL Fanhouse released his top-100 MLB prospects yesterday. The Yankees came out pretty big.

#4 Jesus Montero: “He still has critics who like to point to his defense but there is just about no one who will criticize Montero’s bat. Will he be a good defensive catcher? No, but he has shown enough improvement to be an adequate defender. That combined with a potentially special bat make for an impressive total package.”

#13 Manuel Banuelos: “Some like to pretend Banuelos came from nowhere in 2010. Well, he didn’t. He picked up a couple ticks on his fastball and lives at 93-95 now, but even before the spike he was armed with two good secondary offerings and plus command.”

#34 Gary Sanchez: “Most organizations would sign up for having Sanchez as their top prospect, but he doesn’t even get the title of top catching prospect in his organization. That may soon change, however, as Sanchez’s bat rivals Montero’s at the same age and he looks like he’ll be a better defender.”

#44 Dellin Betances: “If not for his injury history, Betances would likely be toward the top 20 in this list. The owner of a 93-96 mph fastball, a plus curveball and a rapidly improving changeup, the towering right-hander has all the components you look for in a frontline starter.”

#60 Andrew Brackman (No Commentary)

And in his online chat, every other question was about Yankee prospects. On Banuelos:

[Comment From Jay CT]
What is Banuelos’s ceiling, and what ML pitcher could you compare him to?

Frankie Piliere: You know I get this question a lot. I use to not agree with the Johan Santana stuff but it’s probably the most accurate one if you have to pick a current big leaguer. He’s similar in size, velocity, and command to the Santana of a few years ago. The changeup is not as unhittable as Santana’s and he isn’t the pure strikeout machine Santana was. But there’s definitely some comparable aspects. I think Banuelos is a number one in the making. Not to say I told you so but I screamed about him last year at this time. People like to just talk about the new velocity but A. his velocity didn’t spike as much as people say. He went from 90-92, 93 to 92-95. and B. his game goes far beyond just raw stuff

[Comment From T-Dubs]
Assuming both had perfect health, is Betances a better prospect than Banuelos?

Frankie Piliere: Lots of Yankee questions. That’s difficult. I might be in the minority but I still think I take Banuelos. I absolutely love Betances’ stuff but the more bust proof guys are the guys with a great feel for pitching and that’s definitely Banuelos.

[Comment From Kim Last]
Would you take Banuelos or Hellickson?

Frankie Piliere: There’s a battle of two guys I absolutely love. Long term give me the lefty with the power stuff. Banuelos

On Jesus Montero:

[Comment From Ben Kabak]
How overrated is Montero? He won’t even catch.

Frankie Piliere: I’ll go with….not overrated. Let’s say for argument’s sake he doesn’t catch. He’s still an elite bat. And, I think he will catch so that’s why he’s up there on the list.

[Comment From Trevorlon]
Do you think the Yankees will move Montero to the outfield in the future or is he a dh?

Frankie Piliere: I’m sticking with him as a catcher. I know I’m in the minority but I’ve seen him enough to see improvement and enough to be an adequate defender.

On Gary Sanchez:

[Comment From Zak]
Gary Sanchez was 25th on your list midway through the season and he was bumped back, even though he finished strong, IMO. Was that due to overrating him on your previous list or something else?

Frankie Piliere: Just a mild adjustment. Now there are 2010 draftees to consider, and I saw more of the new players in instructs and the AFL. Certain no drop in stock for Sanchez. He’s as good as ever.

On Austin Romine:

[Comment From Zak]
Thanks for doing a chat! Austin Romine was 15th midseason on your list and no where to be found, unless my eyes are bad on your top 100 list. I got to see him and it just looked like he was flat out exhausted to me. Is there another reason why he was bumped off so badly?

Frankie Piliere: Lots of things can change huh? Yeah, with all the new draftees considered now and seeing guys more, I just started slowly sliding Romine back. He was one of the final few cuts. He definitely wore down I think. The 15 ranking could have been reactionary on my part because I don’t feel he’s dropped THAT much in status. But he’s slipped a bit, no doubt.

On Dellin Betances:

[Comment From jake h]
You are super high on Dellin. Do you see him as a starting pitcher?

Frankie Piliere: I definitely see him starting. Three average or better offerings and improving command.

On Adam Warren:

[Comment From Zak]
Adam Warren is one of my personal favorite from the Yankees farm system, seems like he doesn’t get too much love as he’s always grouped with Phelps, DJ Mitchell, etc as a backend of the rotation starter. I’m not saying he’s front line, but isn’t he at least worthy of a middle of the rotation type? He’s got good stuff!

Frankie Piliere: I like Warren better than the two others you mentioned. You’re right that he probably doesn’t get quite enough love. He’s not a finesse guy. He runs up into the mid 90s at times and relies on that fastball. But his secondary stuff continues to improve. He’s a middle of the rotation starter.

On Andrew Brackman:

Comment From Trevorlon]
What’s the ceiling of Andrew Brackman and where does he project as a starter?

Frankie Piliere: Let this serve as another opportunity for me to say i was wrong about Brackman. I was very down on him going into the season and he really resurrected himself. He’s a tough guy to project though. Still a bit inconsistent and at that size I think repeating his delivery will always be a challenge. I’d say he’s a #3 just because his command will never be completely consistent.

He offers a strong defense of Montero’s defense, plus great words about Betances, Banuelos, and even Adam Warren.

This is already a long post, so I won’t say much more, except one thing. I know that a lot of readers get a little worried that the powerful optimism about the Yankee farm system is just the product of some collective Yankee blogger Zeitgeist. Piliere is both one of the smartest guys out there publishing about prospects and has no vested interest for or against the Yankees. And he just compared Manuel Banuelos to Johan Santana. Think about that one.

If Andy Pettitte does not resign, the Yankees are currently set up to enter spring training with two open rotation spots. I don’t know about you, but I can’t remember that ever being the case on the modern Yankees. Even in 2008, when the Yankees attempted to use Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and later Joba Chamberlain all in the rotation, the plan was set from the start. If the Yankees decide to go into spring training with their current roster, it’ll really be a rare sight, and pretty interesting too from an objective standpoint.

Luckily for the Yankees, the team does have a lot of options. An exhaustive list at this point probably includes Ivan Nova, David Phelps, Sergio Mitre, Joba Chamberlain, D.J. Mitchell, Andrew Brackman, Dellin Betances, Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, and Romulo Sanchez, plus whatever minor league contracts the Yankees bring in to audition.

Right off the bat, I think the Yankees will value some stability by immediately promising one job to Ivan Nova. This would allow him to relax in spring training a little bit and work on his game, instead of having to endure the pressure of a competition. You can pass your own judgment on whether or not pressure is good for a young pitcher – I think the team should press him. Regardless, Ivan Nova is probably the best “ready-now” pitcher on the roster. He’s got two great things going for him – a superb 2.86 ERA in 146 Triple-A innings plus a solid MLB debut with a 4.50 ERA in 42 innings. He’s got the workload and mental icebreaking down. Nova’s problem is that he’s just not all that great of a pitcher. He has the stuff, and should be a MLB starter, but has poor K/BB numbers all around. He’s going to allow a lot of baserunners, which means a lot of runs. Still, he’ll get his outs, and shouldn’t be overexposed in the majors. The Yankees couldn’t really ask for much better right now.

Once we get to the competition, I think that the Yankees will only give a real serious chance at making the rotation to Phelps, Brackman and Mitre, plus Joba if they decide to go that route. They’ll do their due diligence on Sanchez and Mitchell, but neither are particularly promising as starters in the majors. Warren, Betances, and Noesi offer higher-ceiling options than Phelps and Mitre, but all could definitely benefit from some more time. The Yankees do not need their opening day starters to last the whole season, and Noesi in particular could very well be ready by the time its apparent that one of the MLB guys isn’t working out. If spring training is really kind to them and the Yankees are feeling pretty adventurous, maybe they get a shot. Just don’t bet the farm on it.

Phelps should be the favorite of this group. He has the potential to be a lot better than Mitre, but is a little more ready than Brackman. He pitched a robust 158 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, with a strong 3.92 K/BB ratio. He’s got solid enough stuff with a 91-93 mph fastball and a good slider, plus oodles of polish. He’s no ace, but Phelps definitely has the potential to stick in the back of the rotation on a team like the Yankees. You could see him pitching 200 innings with a 4.50 ERA, which we would take I think. Brackman, on the other hand, is the opposite kind of prospect. He had a fairly strong season, but topped out pitching 80 2/3 innings at Double-A. We all know about how good he can be. If he shows up to spring training looking like the good Brackman – in shape and all together mechanically – I think the Yankees will strongly consider him. But that needs to happen first. Sergio Mitre is Sergio Mitre. You know what he brings to the table – not a whole lot, but he’ll go out and pitch every 5th day.

Its important to remember what the Yankees are seeking to replace. Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez combined to pitch 286 innings for the Yankees with a combined ERA of 4.40. That’s what the Yankees should shoot for. Furthermore, the Yankees can count on some kind of mid-season reinforcement coming from Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, Dellin Betances, Manuel Banuelos, Brackman, etc, plus the trade market. I really don’t think this picture is all that bleak for the Yankees. Yeah, it might be painful to watch some rookies struggle at first, but it was just as painful to watch the Vazquez/Moseley/et al crew try and hold down the bottom part of the rotation this year. Cashman might not be pulling a Bubba Crosby here, folks. The truth is that Phelps and Nova are relatively solid, if unspectacular, major league options, and the rest of the crew represent high-ceiling potential at mid-season (or earlier in Brackman’s case).

Continuing with Monday’s post, I am reviewing things that surprised me while away for three months. The first five items on Monday dealt with players more established in the system. Now, its time for the fresh out of the box surprises.

6. Adam Warren is the real deal.

I’ve been witness to enough Staten Island flash in the pans to be pretty skeptical when someone like Adam Warren comes along and flashes a 1.43 ERA in 56 innings. Weird things happen in a short season, especially when the league is made up mostly of new draftees who are learning how to hit with wooden bats. But Warren did have a pretty impressive season (7.9 K/9, 1.6 BB/9) after being picked in the 3rd round, so he hit all of our radars.

When I left, Warren was enjoying a pretty good season down in High-A Tampa. Before moving up, he pitched 81 innings with an ERA of 2.22, a K/9 of 7.4, and a BB/9 of 1.9. Since his Double-A promotion though, he has dramatically boosted his performance to 10.9 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 50 innings, including a record-breaking 15 K performance.

Now, all is not perfect for Warren. After throwing 94-95 consistently for Staten Island, he has settled back into his expected 91-93 mph range with the fastball. He throws a lot of pitches, and for that reason has generally failed to put up large innings totals. He has pitched just 5.45 innings per start.

Warren is another enigma that is worth taking another look at. He’s excelled beyond where his four years of high-level college experience provide him an advantage, and has the stuff to be a major league starter. He’s not a top-10 prospect, but he’s not a flash in the pan either. He’s one hell of a pick for Damon Oppenheimer and his team.

7. Gary Sanchez is Jesus Montero’s younger brother.

Sanchez will forever be compared to Jesus Montero. Both received huge bonuses (Sanches received 3 million dollars) at the age of 16 out of Latin America. Both are catchers with defensive shortcomings, and both are have phenomenal hitting potential.

Montero, like Sanchez, debuted at age 17 in the Gulf Coast League a year after signing. Unlike Sanchez, Montero’s greatness was mostly confined to scouting reports. We got really excited because scouts were telling us that Montero had a game-changing bat, and he wet our lips enough by hitting .280/.366/.421. He didn’t have a lot of power, and the Yankees almost immediately began to radically change the mechanics of his swing.

Sanchez debuted at the age of 17 in the Gulf Coast league this summer, and did things very differently. He hit .353/.419/.597 with 6 home runs and 11 doubles in 136 plate appearances for the GCL Yankees, and even earned a short promotion to Staten Island to face tougher competition. Where Montero started out walking slow and steadily quickened his pace, Sanches hit the ground running.

31 games in rookie ball carry with them a lot of sample size caveats, but the news is still good. Gary Sanchez is ahead of where Jesus Montero was at this point in his minor league career. Like Montero, he has a lot of defensive work to do, but unlike Montero he carries no athleticism or size criticisms related to his long term ability to play catcher. Folks, with a little luck we’ve got another top-20 prospect in all of baseball on our hands. Check in this time next year to see.

8. The Yankees came ready to spend in the 2010 draft

A lot of us were a little perplexed by the Yankees choice of Cito Culver in the 1st round of the 2010 draft. He signed for under slot money, and immediately started playing in the minors. The next two and a half months saw the team sign 15 of their top 16 picks, including a whole bunch of expensive signability picks.

The team spent over slot money to sign picks in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 9th, 10th, and 16th rounds. All but one of those picks (3rd rounder Robert Segedin) are highly talented high school players who are probably ticketed for Charleston next year. Along with Gary Sanchez and a few others, they will form a tight, interesting group of players to watch as they climb the ladder together. Make no mistake, the Yankees made a huge investment in this group, and it should at least in part pay off big time.

Eric wrote a great write up of the group here.

Continue reading »

Via RAB, I stumbled across Frank Pilere’s Top 100 prospects and it got me thinking. In this dead time of the Hot Stove League, there isn’t much to think or write about. But this list gave me a bit of a spark: it reminded me of some of the “other” guys in the Yankees’ system that I’m excited to see progress this season.

Adam Warren

Obviously, we’ll all be tracking the progresses of The Jesus Montero, Austin Romine, Andrew Brackman, and Zach McAllister because they’re the biggest names in the minor league system. Slade Heathcott and J.R. Murphy will also get a lot of attention as the team’s most recent high draft picks. Recent additions to the 40-man roster Kevin Russo, Ivan Nova, and Reegie Corona may even see Major League time this season.

There are four pitchers I’m particularly interested in watching this season.

First, there’s Adam Warren. Warren, from the University of North Carolina was drafted in ’08 by the Indians, but went back to school for 2009 and improved from a 36th round pick to a 4th round pick. He reported to Staten Island after the draft and appeared in 12 games, all starts. He pitched 56.2 innings to the tune of a stellar 1.43 ERA. His peripherals were just as good: his WHIP was 1.041, he only allowed 0.2 HR/9, walked fewer than two per nine, and had a K/BB of 5.00. To be quite blunt, Adam Warren absolutely crushed the New York Penn League. I’m excited to see Warren–who will probably start at High-A Tampa and it wouldn’t surprise me if he turned in the same results in Tampa (and Trenton and maybe even Scranton) as he did for Staten Island.

Next is young Mexican lefty Manny Banuelos. Though he’s only pitched in 38 games, 22 starts, and 151 innings, the results have been great. He’s got a 2.62 ERA and a 3.49 K/BB after pitching most of last season in Charleston. He pitched in one game at Tampa, just one inning with two strikeouts, so I assume he’ll start there with Adam Warren and will likely get a mid-season promotion to Tampa. Manny is still young–he’ll be 19 in March–so he’s got time. We may have to wait a little while for him, but in 2010, I’ll be paying close attention to him and how he progresses in the higher levels of the Yankees’ system.

Domincan righty Hector Noesi was recently added to the 40-Man as well, though he’s only reached Tampa. He pitched in only nine games there last season, so he could start there. If he has a good spring training, though, the Yankees could be more aggressive and put him in Trenton to face more mature hitters. Noesi has displayed excellent control across his 192.2 innings, walking only 1.6 per nine innings. He’s also got a 9.1 K/9 and a 5.76 K/BB. The numbers are definitely there, so it’s time to test Hector against the more mature hitters.

Like Adam Warren, college seasoned right hander Sean Black absolutely crushed the NYPL. His ERA was a video game-like 1.62 in 50 innings and he walked only 1.6 per nine with a 3.78 K/BB. Mature and polished like Warren, I’d expect Black to also do quite well in the minors and be a quick riser.

The Yankees have some great, high upside arms in their system, even if they’re rather far away. These guys have a boatload of potential and I’m very excited to watch them move up towards the Bronx. It’s always sad when we see guys leave the system–Jackson, Dunn, Kennedy, Vizcaino this off-season–but the good thing is that there are usually a handful of guys–like Noesi, Warren, Black, and Man-Ban–to whom we can shift our gazes.

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