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Projecting AJ Burnett

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 1 Response »
Feb 102011

With the troubles that the Yankees have at the back of their rotation, A.J. Burnett has become a key figure in the Yankees’ pitching plans. He is currently slated to be the #3 starter, meaning that another season like the one he had in 2010 (186.2 IP, 5.26 ERA, 4.83 FIP) would make it difficult for the Yankees to mount a playoff charge. It is important to note that 2010 was his worst season, and that all of the projection systems currently available have him bouncing back to some degree in 2010:

CAIRO: 187 IP, 4.77 ERA, 4.50 FIP
Bill James: 191 IP, 4.01 ERA, 4.05 FIP
Marcel: 174 IP, 4.53 ERA, 4.30 FIP
Fans: 181 IP, 4.46 ERA, 4.33 FIP
PECOTA: 186.2 IP, 4.56 ERA

These projections take age and natural decline into account, and the rebound that you see in these statistics blend the fact that 2010 was an anomaly for Burnett with the fact that he is aging and cannot be expected to return entirely to pre-2010 levels. The projections range from 174 to 191 innings pitched, and from an ERA of 4.01 to 4.77. Regarding the ERA, Bill James tends to be optimistic, and I think the generally accepted projection would fit somewhere in the 4.50 range.

These statistics would be a nice improvement over 2010, but I am certain that the Yankees are hoping for more from their #3 starter. The question is whether this hope is reasonable. Brian Cashman, Joe Girardi, and Burnett himself have all insinuated that he had some issues last season that were effecting his mindset, and have suggested that he is once again mentally prepared to pitch effectively. I am uncertain about what to do with this information due to its vague nature, and I leave it up to you to decide whether you are willing to put any stock in it. I do not think it would be realistic to expect much more than the projected numbers listed above, which would certainly be an improvement but may not be enough to convince Brian Cashman that he does not need to acquire another top/middle of the rotation starter.

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Projecting the Rotation

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Feb 022011

Without a hint of hesitation, I would say that the starting rotation is the biggest hole the 2011 Yankees will have. It consists of one bonafide ace/workhorse/gamer/whatever buzzword there is for pitchers in CC Sabathia. After that, there’s no shortage of question marks. Let’s rewind to last year for a second.

The Yankees had eight men take the hill to start a game in 2010: Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, Dustin Moseley, and Javier Vazquez. Sparing the long reminiscence, we could call 2010 a mixed bag in terms of success for the Yankee starters. CC Sabathia had a typical CC Sabathia season. Andy Pettitte was great, but was injured and threw under 130 innings. Mitre enjoyed a small sample of (probably unsustainable) success; Moseley was replacement level as expected; Nova showed some potential. Phil Hughes looked like he was starting to realize his considerable upside, though he did slide a bit after an impressive first month. Vazquez and Burnett? Looking at their collective performance in 2010 is like looking at the light that came from the Ark of the Covenant, only it wasn’t the power of God but of unmatched suckitude.

All told, the 2010 starters for the Yankees tossed 973 innings and racked up 10.60 fWAR. Can the 2011 rotation match or beat that? A lot of our gut reactions might say “no” considering how poorly we’ve been “conditioned” to view the forthcoming rotation. So I plugged some Yankee projections into the pitching WAR spreadsheet from Beyond the Box Score (glove slap Mike Axisa) to see what would come out the other end.

I intended this post to only be about Ivan Nova, but I thought why not expand it to the whole rotation? After all, I like to think I live by the “go big or go home” motto that a high school friend spouted perpetually. I used nine starters, the nine I think are most likely to make starts for the 2011 Yankees. I took their CAIRO projected innings pitched and FIPs and plugged them into the above spreadsheet and here’s what I got:

CC Sabathia: 210 IP w/3.68 FIP = 4.7 WAR
Phil Hughes: 172 IP w/4.17 FIP = 2.8 WAR
A.J. Burnett: 187 IP w/4.50 FIP = 2.3 WAR
Ivan Nova: 116 IP w/5.04 FIP = 0.8 WAR
Sergio Mitre: 72 IP w/4.69 FIP = 0.7 WAR
Freddy Garcia: 31 IP w/4.90 FIP = 0.2 WAR
Andrew Brackman: 63 IP w/5.26 FIP = 0.3 WAR
David Phelps: 94 IP w/5.05 FIP = 0.6 WAR
Hector Noesi: 80 IP w/4.91 FIP = 0.6 WAR

Before we get to tabulating the results, I want to review my methodology a bit here. I kept each pitcher’s leverage at 1.0 to make things even. I didn’t change the CAIRO innings projections at all, even though some of them might be unrealistic. I don’t think Phelps (or Noesi or maybe even Brackman) will get that many innings and I don’t think Garcia will get that few. I’m also assuming in this that every inning pitched by these guys is as a starting pitcher, which may not be likely for the “prospect trio” and Sergio Mitre. That said, some of this stuff isn’t THAT far out of the realm of possibility, so let’s get to the results.

These projections give us 1025 innings pitched by Yankee starters, in which they rack up 12.9 WAR. Both of those numbers beat the 2010 version of Yankee starting pitching. We must note that the 2011 projection includes one more pitcher than the 2010 “rotation” did so I adjusted this with a rough WAR/IP calculation. The 2010 starters were worth 0.0109 WAR/IP and the 2011 rotation projects to be worth 0.0126 WAR/IP.

The rotation was 11th in the American League in fWAR by starters in 2010 and if we plug the projected 2011 rotation into that list, it would have the 9th best SP fWAR in the AL. That’s still below the league median, but, again, better than what the team had in 2010.

We’ve been very doom-and-gloom about the possible rotation for 2011, but these numbers (that, yes, we should take with a grain of salt because they’re projections), should help allay our fears just a little bit. While it seems the 2011 rotation might not quite be league average as a whole, it could still be a two win improvement from 2010. With the added bullpen strength and the still strong lineup, the Yankees look like they’ll have a formidable team in 2011.

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Searching for a Sign

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 3 Responses »
Jan 142011

So I’ve said over and over again that there’s really no way A.J. Burnett’s 2011 can be worse than his 2011. Do I have any proof for this? Frankly, I’m not really sure. There’s nothing we can predict about A.J. He’s got the classic “results don’t match the stuff” tag and that’s definitely hard to shake. Let’s look at 2010 and see if we can find ANYTHING that can help us predict a better 2011 for Mr. Burnett.

The first thing that’s at least a little positive is that Burnett did drop his BB/9 below 4.0. He was at 3.76 BB/9, which is right below his career mark of 3.78 BB/9. The bad thing is that his K/9, 6.99, fell to a nine year low. That’s something that needs to improve for Burnett to be successful (yes, you can give this the Capt. Obvious tag).

Burnett’s HR/9 in 2010 was the second highest of his career at 1.21 (highest 1.25 in ’07 for the Jays). His BABIP, .319, was also the second highest of his career (.328 in ’08). So, there’s a small chance that both of those numbers could come back down to A.J.’s career numbers (0.87 HR/9; .297 BABIP).

The high BABIP, as well as a low strand rate of 68.8%, helped contribute to Burnett’s ugly and a half 5.26 ERA. However, his FIP, 4.83 and xFIP, 4.66, were nothing to write home about either.

I’m really stretching here. There’s not much in Burnett’s 2010 that suggests he’ll have a significant improvement for next year. The FIP and xFIP numbers tell me that there’s a chance he could be A BIT better, but not much. Then again, we never know what the hell’s gonna happen when this guy uncorks one from his right arm.

Have a good weekend, TYU readers. I’ll be taking my You-Get-to-Be-a-Teacher exams on Saturday morning, so send me good vibes. Go Jets and Packers this weekend!

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No Pettitte Shouldn't Mean No Patience

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Jan 132011

As you’ve probably heard, Andy Pettitte will not be pitching in 2011 (glove slap RAB). The first thing that ran through your head was probably a stream of expletives. Now, more than any time this offseason, we want the Yankees to make a move. Sign someone. Trade for someone. Do SOMETHING to help the rotation.

I can’t help but be on board with that mentality, but at the same time, we need to realize that the options out there are not all that wonderful. With each player out there–Jeff Francis, Justin Duchscherer, Jeremy Bonderman, Freddy Garcia–there is a good amount of risk. Francis and Duke are health concerns; Bonderman and Garcia are performance concerns. The White Sox looked to be shopping starters earlier in the Hot Stove Season, but we’ve heard nothing on that since, and now it seems unlikely that they will move a starter. Just about all other trade markets have been silent. Even if we don’t want to be patient, we have to be.

The Yankee Front Office–in which I have a lot of faith–likely recognizes the noticeable absence of good starting pitching options. They have also likely taken note of the relief pitching market, which has a stunningly similar lack of effective options (this isn’t to say that there aren’t good relief pitchers out there who could help the Yankees; it’s only to say that other things like cost and compensation will get in the way.). But on the other hand, the Yankee Front Office probably realizes that a rotation that is two fifths Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre isn’t all that great and probably won’t perform incredibly in the A.L. East. And while it’s likely that A.J. Burnett improves from his 2010 season, the only thing we can predict from his right arm is unpredictability. It looks like, though, we’ll have to deal with that rotation for at least some portion of the 2011 season.

As always, and as we all should, I have complete confidence in CC Sabathia. Phil Hughes, with even more experience under his belt, should improve. A.J. Burnett’s 2011 can’t possibly be worse than 2010. Ivan Nova does have some upside, no matter how small, but there’s still some there. Sergio Mitre…well…he gets ground balls? Mitre is really the only one I’m uncomfortable with. Luckily, replacing him at some point during the season shouldn’t be too hard. Like I said, there are some buy low options on the free agent market and at any point during the season, the trade market could develop and the Yankees could snag someone.

It’s not going to be easy, but we need to be steadfast in sticking with the patient outlook we’ve all taken on in the last few months. I’d be willing to bet that the Yankee starting five in October is not the one we’re looking at right now.

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Burnett Went Through Divorce This Season? (Update: Nope)

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 7 Responses »
Dec 152010

Update: Marc Carig is reporting that Burnett’s agent is denying this story. While it is possible that Burnett did have domestic issues, he is not divorced.

The question mark is in the title because the source is Colin Cowherd. Mike Silva has the quote:

Via NYBD reader Gregg Ferrara who is listening to ESPN Radio
“Colin Coward on Burnett divorce The stories are ugly. Wife was vindictive and spiteful. Think of worst divorce you’ve heard and double it”
I guess this might explain the black eye and poor 2010 season.

This information does not provide an excuse for Burnett’s poor season, as he was being paid a ton of money to perform no matter his situation at home. However, it may be an explanation for a season that was vastly out of line with his career numbers. We often forget that these players are not automatons, and that they have lives that they may be unable to prevent from impacting their job performance much like anybody else.

If Burnett’s tumultuous personal life was to blame for at least part of his decline, that might give hope that Burnett sees some sort of resurgence in 2011. Brian Cashman seems to think so, as he has said on a few occasions that what was bothering Burnett last season is gone and that he therefore believes AJ will bounce back. We now have context for Brian’s remarks, and although I remain skeptical that AJ will return to the guy he was in 2009, I feel pretty confident that his 2011 will be better than 2010 was simply because 2010 was not in line with a typical aging pattern. No matter what you think about the “divorce impacting performance” theory, you would likely expect an improved Burnett in 2011.

Finally, this lends some context to comments AJ made about Joe Girardi back when he was not included in the ALDS rotation:

“Joe’s the best manager I ever played for,” Burnett said. “He’s done more for me this year probably than any manager has ever done. He cares about me as a person and as a player. I’ll be down in that pen and be ready to get one out or two outs or whatever I’ve got to do for him.”

At the time it was unclear what was meant by these remarks, but you can surmise that AJ appreciated Girardi’s support through his divorce process, his tempter tantrum in which he cut his palms, and the black eye incident. Being that this is the first we are hearing about the divorce, it seems that the entire organization was discreet and respectful of the issue, which is good to see.

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Savers and Drainers, Pitcher Edition

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 4 Responses »
Oct 272010

We looked at the Yankee savers and drainers on the offensive side of things yesterday, so today, let’s look at the pitching side of things. Again, we’ll go top 9 guys in fWAR order.

1. CC Sabathia, 5.1 fWAR worth $20.4MM. Salary: $23MM. Value: -$2.6MM
2. Phil Hughes, 2.4 fWAR worth $9.5MM. Salary: $0.447MM. Value: +$9.053MM
3. Andy Pettitte, 2.3 fWAR worth $9.2MM. Salary: $11.75MM. Value: -$2.55MM
4. Mariano Rivera, 1.7 fWAR worth $6.8MM. Salary: $15MM. Value: -$8.2MM
5. Joba Chamberlain, 1.4 fWAR worth $5.6MM. Salary: $0.487795MM. Value: +$5.1122MM
6. A.J. Burnett, 1.3 fWAR worth $5.2MM. Salary: $16.5MM. Value: -$11.3MM
7. David Robertson, 0.7 fWAR worth $2.9MM. Salary: $0.462650MM. Value: +$2.437MM
8. Ivan Nova, 0.5 fWAR worth $1.8MM. Salary: N/A. Value: N/A
9. Kerry Wood, 0.4 fWAR worth $1.5MM. Salary (Yankees only): $8.3279MM. Value: -$6.8279 $2.0279MM. Value: -$0.5279MM.

Ivan Nova’s salary wasn’t listed on Cot’s, but we can assume he gave the Yankees at least decent value because there’s no way he made anything close to $1MM this season. Kerry Wood’s value looks a lot worse than it is because the Yankees picked up most some of his salary from Cleveland and with just 26 innings for the Yankees, there’s no way he could’ve come close to matching his value he came close to matching his salary with them, but couldn’t quite get there.

CC Sabathia’s high salary makes him look less valuable, but the fact that he came so close to matching it just goes to show how awesome a pitcher he is.

Phil Hughes was essentially the pitching version of Brett Gardner: cost controlled talent producing at a relatively high level and giving the Yankees a ton of value. Hughes hits arbitration for the first time this year, so it will be interesting to see what his salary is going forward.

Joba Chamberlain, also arbitration eligible for the first time, provided a good deal of value for the Yankees, too–the second most on the team after Hughes. It’s worth noting that fWAR likes Joba a lot more than bWAR which had him at 0.4 WAR.

A.J. Burnett…well, yeah. The numbers speak for themselves there.

Mariano Rivera’s numbers look odd because he’s so highly paid, yet as a closer, he doesn’t pitch enough innings to rack up a very high WAR. Rivera did have the fourth highest fWAR among AL relievers, behind Matt Thornton (2.2), Joakim Soria (2.1), and Neftali Feliz (1.8).

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Did Eiland take the fall for Burnett?

Posted by Steve S. at 7:22 am 6 Responses »
Oct 262010

Photo courtesy of the MSG.com

Brian Cashman said something interesting in an interview yesterday with WFANs Mike Francesa that may shed some light on why pitching coach Dave Eiland was let go. Here’s the audio:

MF:”How about Burnett, how do you feel about him going forward?”

BC:”All the ability is there. He has a complicated delivery, there were some things that took place this year that hopefully wont be a part of it going forward. He’s healthy, he’s certainly capable. I think there were a lot of things around AJ this year that won’t be a part of it next year. He’ll be back, he’ll be in the rotation and quite honestly I think you’ll see a much better version that what you’ve saw from June on. “

As I’m sure Yankee fans recall, Dave Eiland took an early June leave of absence for what was described at the time as ‘personal reasons’. Much was made at the time about how much AJ missed Dave Eiland, and over his next 5 starts he gave up 29 Runs in just 23.0 IP, ballooning his ERA from a respectable 3.72 to an ugly 5.25. It appears the Yanks were ready to part ways with Eiland (whose contract had expired) if, for whatever reason, he can’t meet his obligations to the team. The Yanks appear to think that his personal issues affected the ballclub by way of his absence, and therefore they need to find a replacement who can give them a 9-10 month annual commitment to be there.

In a column for NJ.com, Bob Klapisch adds more fuel to this speculative fire. He writes:

Cashman always liked Eiland but regarded the coach’s off-the-field issues as a potential liability in 2011, just as they were in 2010. It was during Eiland’s self-imposed, month long exile that A.J. Burnett lost his way; he, too, became a black hole and Cashman couldn’t take a chance on that happening again next year.

There’s so much mystery surrounding Dave Eiland’s dismissal and his mid season departure from the team that we’re forced to piece things together to find some answers. As with Burnett’s mysterious black eye in September, we are left with far more questions than answers. If this is the explanation for letting Dave go, don’t expect Eiland’s replacement to come from within. Bullpen Coach Mike Harkey filled in for Eiland while he was gone, and didn’t keep AJ from getting off track.

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Burnett's pitching, and Phil is the reason

Posted by Steve S. at 6:39 am No Responses »
Oct 182010

Photo courtesy of the NY Daily News

Manager Joe Girardi has reaffirmed his commitment to AJ Burnett many times in the past few days, and now yesterday and Brian Cashman shot down any notion that the Yanks might reconfigure their rotation should they lose tonight’s game to Cliff Lee and go down 2-1 in the series. The NY Post has the details:

“I believe in A.J.,” Cashman said during the team’s workout yesterday at Yankee Stadium.

When it was pointed out that not too many other people do, Cashman explained himself.

“We’ve seen it before,” Cashman said. “We know he’s capable.”

Not so much lately, though. Burnett has been awful for most of the season and hasn’t won since Sept. 1 or pitched since Oct. 2.

But Cashman said there was “no wiggle room” in regards to pitching CC Sabathia on three days’ rest.

“The way the schedule is set up, we’re gonna need four starters,” Cashman said. “He’s capable of doing a good job and we believe he’s gonna do a good job.”

And then he pointed to Saturday’s NLCS Game 1, when Roy Halladay struggled and lost to the Giants.

“It’s a crazy game,” Cashman said. “It’s an unpredictable sport. A.J. has a ton of talent. He is a competitor. He had a bad second half, but he’s capable of doing extremely well and giving us a great start. I’m hoping for it.”

I think the key is Phil Hughes. As I detailed yesterday, Andy Pettitte is pretty much the same on short rest. We all know CCs numbers on short rest have been better in a small sample and how good he was last year in the playoffs. Hughes is the big wild card. I’d love to post his numbers on short rest, but there’s a problem. They don’t exist. He’s never pitched on short rest.

As a young, talented hurler the Yanks have taken great care not to abuse his arm, and one of the unintended consequences of that is we now have no data whatsoever for the series at hand. No numbers to pore over, no observational analysis, no feedback from Phil, nothing. The playoffs are not the time to be experimenting, and with Phil already at a career innings high it would be even worse of an idea. The Yanks have no choice but to start Burnett and cross their fingers.

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Collection of Thoughts Heading into the ALCS

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 1 Response »
Oct 152010

We’re just a few hours away from first pitch in Arlington for the ALCS and here’s what’s swirling around my head on a rainy Thursday night after a fourteen hour work day (you, of course, will be reading this on Friday morning).

Just to get it out of the way, I’m predicting the Yankees will win the ALCS in five games. I’m not sure which game they’ll lose, I just think they’ll lose one. Winning in five would be nice because it would mean a second straight ALCS victory at home, and the more the team can celebrate in Yankee Stadium the better. I wanted the Yankees to play the Rangers instead of the Rays and I’ve gotten what I wanted. Hopefully, the Yankees can follow through on their end of the deal. Of course, I’m very confident that they will. Still, one thing is puzzling me.

I’d rather the Yankees start CC Sabathia on three day’s worth of rest in Game Four instead of A.J. Burnett, regardless of the score of the series. This really has nothing to do with Burnett–okay, mabye a little–I just want the Yankees’ best starter lined up to start in Game Seven. That’s also not to say that I don’t think Andy Pettitte could handle pitching in a potential Game Seven, I’d just rather have the team’s best pitcher out there when the season is on the line. However, the way they have it set up is that no matter what, the worst SP of the bunch will only pitch once in the series. That’s fine with me.

This article by Brendan Prunty is a must read. It just goes to show (again) how great a hitting coach Kevin Long is and how hard even the most talented players, like Robinson Cano, work on perfecting their crafts. If I ever again hear anyone say Robinson Cano is lazy, I’m going to slap that person in the face with a tire iron. Who’s with me?

Lastly, there’s this tweet from beat writer Mark Carig. Answering that question is nearly impossible and you could make a case for each one. For example, Adrian Beltre didn’t lead the Red Sox to a playoff spot, but he had a fantastic season and provided great value considering his relatively low cost.

For the Yankees, we could argue that A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia, and Mark Teixeira paid for themselves by winning the 2009 World Series. The value/cost argument also holds true for the 2010 Yankees in regards to Marcus Thames. He was signed to a Minor League contract and ended up performing at a much higher level than we would’ve expected.

My ultimate answer, though, would be combining the value/cost versus raw performance arguments. After all, raw performance is what you really want, right? No matter how much or how little you sign a player for, you want him to put up big numbers. If the team doesn’t make the playoffs, that’s really not his fault, is it? I mean, do we blame the aforementioned Beltre for the Sox missing the playoffs? He did everything he could to make sure the Sox DID make it. If you can get a guy to play well AND have a relatively low cost, then you’ve won that signing in every way possible.

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Have A Little Faith

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 26 Responses »
Oct 142010

Ever since the Texas Rangers defeated the Rays in Game 5 of the ALDS, I have sensed an odd defeatist attitude building among Yankees fans. I’m sure you’ve heard this refrain by now:

“The Rangers are going to win the Lee games, and then there’s the AJ game. They just need to win one of the other games.”

This line of thinking has lead some to suggest that the Yankees should pitch AJ Burnett in Game 3, limiting the impact of a Lee gem or a Burnett blowup to one game (this is now rendered moot by the fact that CC is not being used on 3 days rest). While this sounds logical in theory, this defeatist attitude has two underlying assumptions that are faulty:

1) The Yankees cannot beat Cliff Lee.
2) The Yankees are underdogs in Game 4 with Burnett on the hill.

Let’s address these in order.

1) Lee is a great pitcher, and is on the short list for best pitcher in the game. That does not mean he is unbeatable. He had an ERA of 3.18 (FIP of 2.58) on the season, and pitched pretty poorly down the stretch. The Yankees beat him in August by getting to him late and then scoring off the Rangers bullpen. Even if he pitches a complete game, he’s just as likely as not to give up 2 or 3 runs, particularly against this offense in this ballpark. The Yankees just need a good pitching performance from Andy Pettitte to keep them in the game, something that is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Are the Yankees the underdog in Game 3? Absolutely. But it is not nearly as clear cut as many are making it out to be.

2) I cannot sit here and make an argument that “Good AJ” is likely to show up, because his performance this season suggests that there is a good chance that “Bad AJ” tries to make an appearance on Tuesday night in the Bronx. That said, Tommy Hunter is far from a stud himself, as his FIP is actually worse than that of Burnett. He profiles very similarly to Brian Duensing without the benefit of being a lefty. Hunter pitches to contact, a strategy that often fails miserably against a lineup as patient and powerful as the one the Yankees will present. Additionally, Yankee Stadium is not exactly the sort of ballpark in which a righty wants to be pitching to contact.

Another important point is that the Yankees are carrying two longmen on the ALCS roster almost exclusively to address the possibility of a Burnett blowup. I’d guess that he will be on a very short leash, and it will be either “good AJ” or “pulled AJ” that we see. With the game in Yankee Stadium, Burnett on a short leash, and the Yankee lineup matching up well with Hunter, I would put my money on New York in Game 4.

The Yankees should not be looking to concede postseason games simply because Cliff Lee is awesome and AJ Burnett is wildly inconsistent. They have given themselves a good chance to win both games, which is absolutely the correct approach to take to a playoff series. I wish Yankees fans had as much confidence in their team as Joe Girardi has.

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