From Tom Verducci:

I know this to be true because Curt Schilling told me years ago. His theory was that the Red Sox and Yankees are so evenly matched that the team that gets the most starts out of its top five starters will be the better team. It’s amazing how right he has been….

Let’s look at the past seven years, the era in which Boston and New York essentially have been near-equal rivals, and examine the correlation between which team got the most starts from its top five and which team had the most wins….

Schilling has been right four straight years. Only once in the past seven years did the team with more starts have fewer wins, but even that occasion needs an explanation. It happened in 2004, when the Red Sox — who got an incredible 157 starts from five starters — may have had three fewer regular season wins than New York but beat the Yankees in the ALCS and won the World Series.
So determining who is better this year, the Red Sox or Yankees, becomes a very simple exercise: just forecast which team will get more starts out of its top five starters. And when you do that, the answer becomes obvious: the Yankees will be the better team.

I think Verducci is correct here. While you can argue about which rotation is more talented, it is clear that the Yankee rotation is more reliable. In the Red Sox rotation, Verducci dubs only Beckett and Lester as reliable, and even Beckett has some question marks regarding his health crop up occasionally. Conversely, CC Sabathia and Javier Vazquez are two of the more durable pitchers in the game, Andy Pettitte has remained healthy with consistency despite his advancing age, and AJ Burnett seems to have found a way to stay off the DL after years of struggling with injuries. Furthermore, the Yankees have greater depth, with 8 solid starting options, while the Red Sox have a larger drop-off after their top 6.

This study is obviously not dispositive, and the club that gets fewer starts from their top 5 starters can compensate in other areas. However, considering two similar bullpens and the Yankees superior lineup, the fact that the Yankees project to be more reliable in the rotation bodes well for their chances in the AL East.

(Just a thought: this sort of concept might be self-fulfilling. With teams like the Yankees and Red Sox, poor starters will not be given much of a chance, and the 5 guys with the most starts will usually be 5 fairly good options. In this way, counting the number of starts from the top 5 is just as much about effectiveness as health (whereas with lesser teams, the top 5 might simply be the 5 healthiest guys, because they do not have many effective options). As such, the team with the most starts from the top 5 is likely to be most effective and will rack up a larger number of wins.)

Over the weekend, George King of the NY Post wrote about the fifth starter competition between Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, and, included in King’s article was an interesting tidbit regarding Hughes’ changeup, which he has been developing this spring. Apparently, Hughes has altered his grip of the pitch, going from a split-grip change – which, I believe, was somewhat similar to Ian Kennedy’s vulcan changeup – to a circle change. “I tweaked it a little bit,” said Hughes. “I am back to the circle change and getting a feel for it.” Hughes had gone from the circle changeup grip to the split-finger changeup grip last year, during Spring Training, so the “tweak” is not necessarily earth-shattering.

Manager Joe Girardi stated that Hughes’ changeup has looked effective during bullpen sessions, however, according to King, Girardi will wait to “reserve judgment until he sees how hitters react to it when they take their bats off the shoulders.” “You want to see the deception it has when hitters are swinging in a game,” noted Girardi in reference to the pitch. “But, I like the progress he has made and we need to keep on him and tell him to continue to use it.” Hughes hopes to reincorporate the change within his repertoire this season after rarely using it as a reliever a year ago.

From Burnett to Hughes, there’s a big changeup theme to this spring. Everyone wants to be like CC, I guess…

Photo by the AP

According to the Star-Ledger’s Marc Carig, right-hander, A.J. Burnett, is refining his changeup this spring and hopes to overcome a fear he has of getting beat by the pitch in order to employ it more often in 2010. “I think it’s a big key,” noted Burnett when discussing the pitch, which he used only 3.1% of the time a season ago, the lowest rate of any American League starter with at least 180 innings accrued. “Whether I throw it or not, I don’t know, but I’ve been working on it,” he added. Carig states that Burnett is trying to get comfortable with the offering in camp so that he can utilize it specifically when his curveball is off in the upcoming regular season. Earlier this month, I actually suggested that Burnett should use his changeup more this year, citing the 33-year old’s weak fastball numbers from last season, according to pitch type values, as a reason for the increase in usage. As I see it, there’s no downside in trying it.

Photo by the AP

In a recent piece from River Ave Blues’ Joe Pawlikowski, Joe points to A.J. Burnett’s ground ball rate from 2009, noting it as problematic. Last season, Burnett posted a career low in ground ball rate at 42.8%, which is significantly under his career average of 49.5% (a mark that was subsequently dragged down as a result of the career low). This, obviously, is not a positive development, as pitchers are best served keeping batted balls on the ground. However, this specific percentage was not the only troubling number posted by Burnett in his first season with the Yankees.

Inversely connected to his career low in ground ball inducement was Burnett’s career high in fly ball percentage. His 39.2% mark – roughly 7% higher than his career mark of 32.0% – was actually the peak, thus far, of a four-year trend, in which Burnett’s fly ball rate has increased since 2006. In a ballpark such as Yankee Stadium, the fly ball rate, in particular, is rather disconcerting. The pattern discerned in fly ball rate, along with a two-year drop-off in ground ball percentage, makes me wonder whether or not Burnett is actually becoming more of a fly ball pitcher. His 32.9% rate in 2009 was the eleventh highest in the American League and, if the trend continues, things could get ugly.

Photo by Getty Images

Yesterday, A.J. Burnett told reporters that he plans to cut down on his walks in 2010, after issuing 97 of them a season ago. “I would like to not walk as many people, go a little deeper in the games and be a little more efficient like [CC] is,” noted Burnett. “He’s real efficient with his pitches. He’s 12-15 an inning as opposed to 20-25 an inning, and it helps. Being more efficient in strike one, and just not give away free bags. Let them earn their bases.” Not only was Burnett’s 4.22 BB/9 the second highest mark of his career when tossing 100 or more innings in a season, it was also the highest mark he had posted in eight years (he walked 4.31 per nine innings in 2001). Basically, the base-on-balls was a significant problem for the tattooed right-hander in 2009, as nearly 11% of his at-bats resulted in a free pass.

While it is difficult to explain the uptick in Burnett’s walk rate last season – his career rate is 3.78 – there are some factors to consider that might shed a bit of light on the issue. First, in the first year of his contract with New York, Burnett dealt with some mechanical flaws in his delivery, which likely caused many of his command problems. He was also dealing with a series of complex contextual elements, such as working with a new catcher, moving to a new area, joining a new team, playing in a new ballpark, and so on and so forth. For instance, at one point last season, Burnett admitted to trying to throw harder as the fans in Yankee Stadium cheered louder, which consequently hurt his ability to locate pitches effectively. These things, in tandem, likely contributed to Burnett’s particularly wild year.

If the 33-year old hopes to improve upon his 2009 campaign, slowing his walk rate would be a very good start.

Photo by the AP

Not sure if this was reported as a standalone item anywhere, but Erik Boland of Newsday informs us that manager, Joe Girardi, has announced that Jorge Posada will catch A.J. Burnett this season. A serious amount of ink was devoted to the Burnett-Posada duo a season ago, after the two seemed to have “problems” working with one another, which led Girardi to install Jose Molina as Burnett’s everyday catcher (and which Posada did not like very much).

Result-wise, while there may be some substance to the notion that the two did not gel well as a unit – over 16 games with Posada behind the plate, Burnett held hitters to a .270/.353/.421 line and posted a rather poor K/BB of 1.72 (79/46), and with Molina, Burnett held hitters to .221/.307/.352 line over 11 games while posting a much improved 2.66 K/BB (77/29) – in reality, as stated by a number of articles, much of Burnett’s struggles last season were not actually Posada-related, rather, they were brought on by mechanical problems with the now 33-year old’s delivery. Unfortunately for Posada, he became a newspaper causality of these struggles, as it is much more interesting to discuss a pitcher and a catcher’s seemingly ineffectual relationship instead of mechanical flaws in one’s motion.

Anyway, to Burnett’s credit, he is excited to begin working with Posada this season and wants to disprove last season’s media-driven controversy regarding the two as batterymates. “I was looking forward to it from the first day of camp to be able to put that behind us and start working together,” Burnett said today when asked about throwing to Posada this season. “A lot of stuff was blown out of proportion last year and we’ve talked a handful of times already and we’re just real excited to put that behind us and move on, get better and learn from each other.” He also took fault for last year’s woes, saying that he was not right in the head, at times, and was often questioning himself, not Posada.

Photo by Reuters

Yesterday, Moshe posted 25 questions/issues going into Spring Training. Tackling them one-by-one in full posts would take way too long, so I’m going to give some quick hit answers to each one.

1. Jorge’s decline: Steve’s got legit concerns about Jorge declining, and if there’s anyone on the Yankees who’s going to decline, it’s likely to be Jorge. The average projection for Jorge doesn’t seem too ominous, but you never know with older catchers. My guess? Jorge doesn’t fall off a cliff, but he’s not as productive with the bat as he was last year.

2. The back up catcher: barring injury, I think this job is Cervelli’s to lose. His bat is iffy, but it’s okay for a back up catcher and his defense is solid.

3. The Jesus and 2010/catching: If we see El Carpentiero at all in ‘10, it’ll likely be as a September call up. As for whether he can handle catching, I’m cautiously optimistic. Regardless, that bat is downright dreamy and I want it sticking around in the Yankee organization for years to come.

4. Nick Johnson: Like with Hideki Matsui in ‘09, keeping Johnson off the field could be the key to keeping him healthy. If he does stay healthy, I think he could at the very least come close to matching Hideki/Johnny Damon, he’ll just do it in different ways. His power should bounce back by being in YSIII and I’d expect his HR/FB anomaly from 2009 to correct itself as well.

5. Cano’s defense: I think he’ll stay where he is, which is frustrating ’cause he’s brilliant out there at times.

6. Jeter’s contract situation as a potential distraction: I don’t think it will be an issue until after the ASB.

7. A-Rod’s defense: I think we’ll see the second half A-Rod on defense–still below average with the range (but what an arm!), but not as bad as he was immediately after returning.

8. Utility role: I say Pena, unless Russo really wows everyone in ST.

9. Which Swish: It may not be an exact copy, but I’d put good money on the ‘10 Swisher looking a lot like the ‘09 Swisher.

10. Grandy vs. lefties: Hopefully, Kevin Long can work some magic. And, yes, moving to YSIII will definitely help C-Grand.

11. Gardner as an everyday player: I’m cautiously optimistic for Gardner, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on this issue.

12. Randy Winn’s possible decline: 2009 looks like one of two outliers in the last 8 seasons, 2006 was the other. If he can bounce back, great. If not, it’s not a huge sunken cost and he’s replaceable.

13. Gardy or Grandy in CF: I’ll be happy either way, but the numbers point to Gardner in CF.

14. Hoffmann or Thames: I think they’ll go with Hoffmann, just to see what he’s got unless Thames absolutely destroys the Grapefruit League.

15. October hangover for SPs: It’s possible, but they’re veterans who know how to manage their bodies. Hopefully, there are no ill effects.

16. Javy as unclutch: I see good things for Javy this time around.

17. A.J.’s health: Burnett will pitch at least 185 innings in 2010.

18. 5th starter: I’ve written more than once about this. Joba it shall be.

19. BP or SWB: See above.

20. Damaso: He won’t be as lights out in the playoffs, but he’ll be his usual lefty destroying self since he’ll finally be healthy for a full year.

21. Second lefty: I don’t think a second lefty is a must, but I think General Joe likes the idea of having two lefties, so I think they’ll at least start off the year w/2 LHRPs.

22. If not, who gets the job: No thinking, gut reaction, Melancon.

23. Mo and…aging…: I’ll defer to Chris Turk for the answer.

24. Girardi’s lack of job security: The only way it becomes an issue is if Joe really screws up this year, which won’t happen.

25. Room in the budget if needed: They’ll find it.

So, there you have it: 25 quick answers to 25 complex questions. Before you know it, it’ll be November and we’ll be looking back on these (hopefully after a 28th championship) issues and their outcomes. Here’s to hoping they all turn out the way we want them to.

Earlier this year, Justin Bopp over at Beyond the Box Score showcased a unique illustrative method termed DiamondView (it was Bopp’s creation), in order to evaluate team capabilities with regards to fielding (UZR/150), getting on base (OBP), base-running (EQBRR), and power (ISO). Last time, he provided us with the following review of the American League East using DiamondView (you can read about his methodology here). Now, for our viewing pleasure, he has created individual visuals for pitchers and the results are, once again, a lot of fun to look at.

Bopp’s personalized DiamondView evaluations for pitchers are based on command (i.e., collecting strike outs), control (i.e., preventing walks), durability (i.e., in-game and throughout the season), and batted-ball (i.e., ground ball versus fly ball) statistics. The figures are predicated upon a 0-100 scale, with 100 being the greatest and 0, of course, being the worst. The individual diamond, specific to the featured pitcher, then stretches accordingly within the fixed diamond.

With that said, here is Bopp’s DiamondView illustration for Yankees starter, A.J. Burnett:

Notice that Burnett, in 2009, was a durable pitcher as his diamond stretches towards 89 on the 0-100 scale, meaning that he went deep into games and logged a lot of innings. His strikeouts, as always, were up there at 71, however, his control was well below average at 21. He also generated, roughly, the same amount of ground balls and fly balls.

Now, here is Bopp’s DiamondView of closer, Mariano Rivera, based on his 2009 numbers:

As anticipated, Rivera’s visual is remarkable, as he inches close to 100 in every category outside of durability, which is obviously not his fault, rather, it is the result of his role. Notice how impeccable his control was last season, leading Bopp to quip, “The last time [Rivera] walked somebody was probably some grandma while crossing the street.”

In the end, Bopp’s visuals don’t tell us stuff we don’t already know. I think that much is clear (we know A.J. Burnett can be wild, we know Mariano Rivera is the epitome of control). Nonetheless, DiamondView provides an interesting and simple way to visualize meaningful statistics so as to evaluate pitcher performance. In a world where stats are sometimes shunned for their inaccessibility, the unimposing and straightforward visuals help to lessen that perception.

Despite being the proud of owner of a fastball that could often challenge radar guns for accurate readings, for much of his career, A.J. Burnett has been surprisingly ineffective with his seemingly impressive mid to upper-90s heat. For instance, while with the Blue Jays from 2006-2008, Burnett’s fastball was, in total, 1.8 runs below average (-4.1 in ’06, +8.2 in ’07, -5.9 in ’08). In 2009, the lanky starter actually posted his worst fastball value mark ever, as the offering, which generally clocked in at 94.2 mph, was 13 runs below average. In the American League, only James Shields (-13.2) and Carl Pavano (-23.6) were worse, and their fastballs were significantly slower than Burnett’s. If one considers that Burnett is essentially a fastball-curveball pitcher, then this becomes an even greater problem.

But how, exactly, does Burnett manage to be so unproductive with a fastball that most pitchers would die for? According to pitch f/x data from a year ago, the movement on his fastball was solid and, of course, the velocity he can wield is above average. Thus, there is little there to indicate a flaw. Perhaps, then, the problem is not with Burnett’s fastball and, instead, the underlying issue rests on what the pie-loving right-hander is not throwing—his changeup.

In 2009, Burnett threw his changeup just 3.1% of the time. This was actually the lowest percentage of any starter in the American League with at least 180 innings under their belt. Though the best items in his tool belt are his gas and his hammer, utilizing the changeup in a way that matched his career average (5.7%) might have helped the 33-year old achieve greater success with his fastball. I say this because, based on historical pitch value data, Burnett’s best seasons with the fastball also featured an uptick in changeup employment. For instance, in 2007, Burnett’s fastball was 8.2 runs above average as he threw the change 7.1% of the time. Further, in 2005, Burnett’s fastball was 7.4 runs above average and 9.9% of his pitches were changeups. Basically, in the years Burnett utilized his changeup more often, his fastball’s efficacy increased. In the years Burnett threw his changeup less – 3.1% in 2009 (wFB of -13.0), 5.0% in 2008 (wFB of -5.9), and 4.2% in 2006 (wFB of -4.1) – his fastball’s efficacy was hindered. While I cannot prove a direct relationship between the two, it does not seem entirely far-fetched to link his fastball to his changeup, as the fastball and changeup are often dependent upon one another in order to be successful. In fact, it is the only noticeable correlation I can extract from the pitch value data (his use of the curve and slider have not varied much annually).

In 2010, I think we might see Burnett go to his changeup more often (it will be interesting to see how much Jorge Posada or Francisco Cervelli might call for it as compared to Jose Molina), as it will likely help setup his other pitches and increase the overall effectiveness of his fastball. Given the available data, it seems like a constructive idea.

Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images

I had an entirely random thought about the Yankees this morning, brought on by looking at the early season splits for Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and AJ Burnett. Looking at the numbers for all three, there were points during the 2009 season when Yankees fans could look at the stats on any of these three new additions and question the huge contracts given to the player. Teixeira was awful in April, OPS’ing .738 with just 6 extra base hits. Sabathia had a similar April, and exited his first start in May with an ERA of 4.85. He vacillated around the mid-3’s for much of the year, and had an ERA of 3.95 as late as August 2nd. Regarding Burnett, he started the season with a few good outings, but had an ERA above 5 for most of May and did not get below 4 until the very last start in June. In the past, Yankee signings who had struggled in the way these three did would have been booed mercilessly. These three saw, at most, a brief smattering of boos and some complaints on internet message boards and blogs. What was different?

I would suggest that the focus upon A-Rod by both media and fans has become so intense that the success and failings of other players tend to be obscured. In most cities, a player like Teixeira or Sabathia struggling would be the most important and most publicized story about the club in that day’s paper. In New York, even when injured, more stories were written about A-Rod than any other player on the club. Quite simply, there was such a frenzy surrounding Alex for much of the first three months of the season, whether it was about steroids, his injury, his lack of rest, or his personal life, that the media was not pointing out and exacerbating the struggles of the new players. And so my question for you, the reader, is this. Has A-Rod taken some of the pressure of playing in New York off his teammates? Does the focus on A-Rod allow new players enough time to adjust and get acclimated to the city and the media? I believe that it does. Do you?