Right-handed relief prospect, Mark Melancon, previously hailed as Mariano Rivera’s successor because of his live heater and hard curve, tossed 16 1/3 innings last season posting a 3.86 ERA. A closer look at his numbers indicates a much weaker performance than his ERA suggests, however, as Melancon walked 5.51 batters per nine and only struck out an identical 5.51 batters per nine, leading to a 4.44 FIP. Not too impressive, right? This was obviously an extremely small sample though, a mere handful of nervous rookie innings that were atypical of the work Melancon had done while in the minor leagues. With just over 150 innings pitched in the Yankees’ farm system, the confident righty boasts a 2.54 ERA and a 0.906 WHIP, numbers which are understandable given his dominant minor-league peripherals (9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9). Basically, down on the farm, he has been as effective as anyone could have hoped.
And so, I wonder, what will happen to Melancon this season? I definitely expect to see him, at some point, and believe he would be a tremendous asset to the team’s relief corps. Yet, with an already crowded bullpen, it seems the soon-to-be 25-year old will be slated for Scranton for most of the year, although someone could certainly falter or experience an injury that would alter such an outcome. CHONE projects Melancon to post a 4.42 FIP this season and Marcel sees a 4.23 FIP, but, given his legitimate success in the minors, his stuff, and his makeup, I’m inclined to believe FanGraphs’ fan projection, which forecasts the Colorado native as a 3.33 FIP pitcher with stellar peripherals. So far this spring, Melancon has appeared in 2 games, giving up 2 hits and striking out 3 over 2 2/3 innings pitched.
It’s a shame we won’t see Melancon more this season, but, I guess that is a testament to the team’s bullpen depth.
Photo by the AP
About a week ago, using Josh Hermsmeyer’s injury database that lists player injuries from 2002 to 2008, Dan Turkenkopf of Beyond the Box Score examined the way in which wrist injuries might impact power (it seems common sensical to assume that they do, but I appreciate having some form of data to support this theory, even if it is limited). Basically, Turkenkopf looked at players with wrist injuries during the aforementioned timeframe and compared their projected ISOs – the projected ISOs were calculated by Turkenkopf using the Marcel projection system – upon returning from their wrist injuries, to their actual ISOs upon returning. In the end, though the analysis was only the “quick and dirty” starting point to what might one day be a larger, more comprehensive study, Turkenkopf concludes that “there may be something to the idea that wrist injuries take away a player’s power during his recovery,” as the “overall mean difference between the projected ISO and the actual was -0.030, which is pretty substantial.”
Nick Johnson, the Yankees designated hitter (and possible number two hitter), is actually one of the 77 players featured in Turkenkopf’s study, for he spent 27 days on the disabled list with a bruised wrist in 2002 – a relatively minor wrist injury – while also spending 137 days on the disabled list in 2008, missing the rest of the regular season after suffering a torn wrist tendon, which, unlike the bruised wrist, was obviously a much more significant injury. In accordance with injury severity, Johnson surpassed his ISO projection upon returning from the disabled list in 2002, however, last season, after returning from his ’08 tendon tear, Johnson saw a rather large divide between his projected ISO of .208 and his actual ISO of .114 (a difference of .094). As Turkenkopf noted, and via common sense logic, the wrist injury did seem to drain Johnson’s raw power in 2009 – explaining his David Wright-like home run total of eight – after he had posted a .190 ISO in 2005, .230 in 2006, and a .211 mark, prior to his injury, in 2008.
I think it is safe to say that, another year removed from his wrist injury – he will have received two years of recovery time, essentially – should allow Johnson to inch closer towards his career ISO of .174. This is another instance where a player did so poorly in one category that he is bound to improve given his overall track record in that area. Marcel, the system Turkenkopf used for his ISO study, forecasts Johnson’s ISO to be .137 in 2010. As a left-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium that hits both lefties and righties well, I think that he could certainly surpass that number, although even such a conservative projection shows a reason for optimism and an increase in power after last season’s outage.
With that said, if Johnson’s OBP is .426, like it was in ‘09, I doubt anyone will mind if his ISO is around .115 or so.
Note – Turkenkopf later updated his findings with an added methodological change that alters the difference between projected ISO and actual ISO, but there is still a drop.
Photo by the AP
Today in Tampa, Derek Jeter met with the media to discuss the new year and, of course, his looming free agency was the dominant topic of conversation. As was expected, Jeter brushed the issue off as a possible distraction and affirmed his desire to be a Yankee for the duration of his already impressive career. “This is the only organization I’ve ever wanted to play for,” Jeter said. “That’s still true today. I was a Yankees fan growing up, and this is where I want to be. I’ve never envisioned myself playing anywhere else, and hopefully I don’t have to.” He then added, “I’ve never gone into a season focused on the next season. My approach since day one is to do whatever you can to help the team win in that particular year. I’m not thinking about what’s going to happen next season.”
Jeter also stated that his agent, Casey Close, phoned the Yankees over the offseason in order to gauge their interest in providing the future Hall of Famer with a new deal, however, Close was told by the front office that the organization intends on waiting until the end of the season to offer Jeter a proposal. When asked about the team’s contract policy, Jeter responded with, “I don’t have a problem with it. That’s the new policy that they have. They have every right to do that. I signed a long deal, I’m still under contract with that deal, and they have the right to do whatever they want.”
As it stands, Jeter shouldn’t be worried about his situation at all, really. You would be hard-pressed to find another soon-to-be free agent with as much presumed job security as the Yankees’ 35-year old shortstop. The only question is how much money and how many years will the beloved player receive upon re-signing. That, I’m not sure.
Photo by the AP
According to Joel Sherman of the NY Post, in a last-ditch effort to extract some level of value from Japanese southpaw, Kei Igawa, who ultimately cost the team over $46 million (posting fee and a four-year contract) and forced the front office to reevaluate its scouting program, the Yankees have decided to use Igawa strictly as a reliever this spring. Sherman also adds that the 30-year old will continue to work out of the bullpen while with Scranton, as well.
If there is no value to be had from Igawa as a starter, then it makes sense to try him as a reliever and, frankly, I am surprised that the Yankees have not tried this earlier, as it is an idea I have pondered since 2007. Igawa’s minor-league numbers against lefties are strong – 3.25 FIP, 7.09 K/9, 1.49 BB/9 – and would likely improve as a reliever. If the Yankees are not comfortable with Boone Logan, then maybe Igawa could get a shot later this season as the second lefty out of the bullpen. At this point, the biggest issue is whether or not he deserves a spot on the roster.
Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Yesterday, A.J. Burnett told reporters that he plans to cut down on his walks in 2010, after issuing 97 of them a season ago. “I would like to not walk as many people, go a little deeper in the games and be a little more efficient like [CC] is,” noted Burnett. “He’s real efficient with his pitches. He’s 12-15 an inning as opposed to 20-25 an inning, and it helps. Being more efficient in strike one, and just not give away free bags. Let them earn their bases.” Not only was Burnett’s 4.22 BB/9 the second highest mark of his career when tossing 100 or more innings in a season, it was also the highest mark he had posted in eight years (he walked 4.31 per nine innings in 2001). Basically, the base-on-balls was a significant problem for the tattooed right-hander in 2009, as nearly 11% of his at-bats resulted in a free pass.
While it is difficult to explain the uptick in Burnett’s walk rate last season – his career rate is 3.78 – there are some factors to consider that might shed a bit of light on the issue. First, in the first year of his contract with New York, Burnett dealt with some mechanical flaws in his delivery, which likely caused many of his command problems. He was also dealing with a series of complex contextual elements, such as working with a new catcher, moving to a new area, joining a new team, playing in a new ballpark, and so on and so forth. For instance, at one point last season, Burnett admitted to trying to throw harder as the fans in Yankee Stadium cheered louder, which consequently hurt his ability to locate pitches effectively. These things, in tandem, likely contributed to Burnett’s particularly wild year.
If the 33-year old hopes to improve upon his 2009 campaign, slowing his walk rate would be a very good start.
Photo by the AP
Not sure if this was reported as a standalone item anywhere, but Erik Boland of Newsday informs us that manager, Joe Girardi, has announced that Jorge Posada will catch A.J. Burnett this season. A serious amount of ink was devoted to the Burnett-Posada duo a season ago, after the two seemed to have “problems” working with one another, which led Girardi to install Jose Molina as Burnett’s everyday catcher (and which Posada did not like very much).
Result-wise, while there may be some substance to the notion that the two did not gel well as a unit – over 16 games with Posada behind the plate, Burnett held hitters to a .270/.353/.421 line and posted a rather poor K/BB of 1.72 (79/46), and with Molina, Burnett held hitters to .221/.307/.352 line over 11 games while posting a much improved 2.66 K/BB (77/29) – in reality, as stated by a number of articles, much of Burnett’s struggles last season were not actually Posada-related, rather, they were brought on by mechanical problems with the now 33-year old’s delivery. Unfortunately for Posada, he became a newspaper causality of these struggles, as it is much more interesting to discuss a pitcher and a catcher’s seemingly ineffectual relationship instead of mechanical flaws in one’s motion.
Anyway, to Burnett’s credit, he is excited to begin working with Posada this season and wants to disprove last season’s media-driven controversy regarding the two as batterymates. “I was looking forward to it from the first day of camp to be able to put that behind us and start working together,” Burnett said today when asked about throwing to Posada this season. “A lot of stuff was blown out of proportion last year and we’ve talked a handful of times already and we’re just real excited to put that behind us and move on, get better and learn from each other.” He also took fault for last year’s woes, saying that he was not right in the head, at times, and was often questioning himself, not Posada.
Photo by Reuters
Sorry to cite this, but, via Dan Shaughnessy (Boston Gobe):
In an e-mail to the Globe’s Amalie Benjamin last month Henry explained that the Sox might not be as good this year, writing, “Those reali ties are a function of available talent and age-related transitioning once again, as we did prior to 2007.’’
Tuesday at the winter meetings in Indianapolis, Epstein hammered at the same theme with “we’re kind of in a bridge period. We still think that if we push some of the right buttons, we can be competitive at the very highest levels for the next two years. But we don’t want to compromise too much of the future for that competitiveness during the bridge period.’’
If the Red Sox don’t add an offensive piece to left field — for instance, if they choose not to resign Jason Bay or sign Matt Holliday — will they be able to compete with the Yankees for AL East supremacy next season? In my opinion, it seems unlikely (and perhaps the front office knows that). They could add defense-first pieces rather than offense-first pieces, such as Mike Cameron, who is still solid offensively, or, after trading Mike Lowell, Adrian Beltre. This would help them to limit runs scored against Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and the rest of their staff, but it would not help much with regards to scoring runs, something that they seemingly need given the state of David Ortiz’s bat and the lack of offensive production provided by the newly signed Marco Scutaro (then again, if the team’s defense allows fewer runs to score, then their offense won’t need to score as many to win). The Sox don’t seem eager to add Roy Halladay, either, ergo, I wonder if they have the pieces necessary to best the Yankees in the division come 2010.
There’s always the Wild Card, which I’m sure they’ll compete for, but still…
From Pete Caldera (NJ.com):
“My work’s going to start again tomorrow,” general manager Brian Cashman said outside the home clubhouse early Thursday morning, while players and staff were still celebrating their World Series-clinching victory over Philadelphia in Game 6. “That’s the way it is in the front office.”
Caldera goes on to outline the specific areas that the Yankees will have to address over the winter, such as starting pitching, the Matsui versus Damon issue (essentially, the left field and DH issue), and the bullpen. Sorting out their bench, which was surprisingly strong this season after a series of smart decisions, is also a priority.
Picking up where Caldera left off, Joel Sherman (NY Post) writes that most team officials he has spoken to indicate that the Yankees will likely have a low-key winter, one in which they’ll exercise financial restraint after picking up most of their expensive toys (CC, Teixeira, Burnett) a year ago. Guys like Jason Bay, John Lackey, and Matt Holliday—Sherman says the Yankees like Holliday, but could afford to pass on him (even if Boston is interested)—appear to be out of the Yankees’ price range. The last-minute Teixeira deal might have been a bank buster for Hal Steinbrenner.
To shore up their lineup, Sherman speculates that the team will push to resign Damon to a one-year deal, then possibly pursue Carl Crawford as Damon’s successor once Crawford becomes a free agent after 2010 (unless the Rays sign him to an extension). He also notes that the Yankees could dangle Robinson Cano as trade bait for another pitcher—Felix Hernandez, perhaps—although such a blockbuster seems unlikely (if Matsui signs with another team the Yankees will need to retain their offense).
Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images
From Charley Walters (TwinCities):
Joe Mauer, despite catching regularly for the Minnesota Twins and missing the first 22 games with a sore back, still has 179 hits this season — without steroids. That’s just two fewer hits than Barry Bonds had in one season during his 22-year major league career. The most hits Bonds had in one season was 181 in 1993 for the San Francisco Giants.
Mauer is not only leading the American League in batting average (.371), but in on-base percentage (.442) and slugging percentage (.606).
Mauer, 26, can become a free agent after the 2010 season. When contract talks get serious after this season, the Twins are expected to try to sign Mauer for about $120 million over seven years.
The New York Yankees, however, with catcher Jorge Posada at 38 years old, are expected to offer more money and possibly more years.
If the Twins offer Mauer 7 years at $120 million, they’ll be undervaluing him. According to FanGraphs, Mauer has been worth an eye-popping $35.6 million this year (7.9 WAR). While he won’t get that annually, he could very well earn over $20 million per year. However, being a catcher both hurts and helps Mauer’s cause in that his offense is above and beyond the production of the average catcher, yet catcher’s are injury risks in their own right (and Mauer has somewhat of a checkered injury history). Any team willing to commit that much money to the catcher’s position, along with 7 or more years, are taking on a significant investment and one with great risk. This might help to keep Mauer’s payday lower than what it should be (it’ll still be a lot, of course).
If Mauer doesn’t provide Minnesota with a discount, rejects their offer, and hits free agency, will the Yankees be willing to offer him a 7-8 year deal worth $160-170 million (we’re talking Teixeira money)? Mauer will only be 28 at the start of the 2011 season, therefore, you’d be getting him for at least 3 of his best years (assuming he stays healthy). There are some factors that complicate matters, though, if the Yankees do intend on adding Mauer to their lineup.
First, the team is in need of a left fielder for next season. If they were to sign Matt Holliday or Jason Bay (Holliday is the best option), then they would likely bow out of the Mauer sweepstakes in 2010 for financial reasons, as either player would require a fairly lucrative long-term deal (that’s on top of the contracts that they’re already paying for). If they don’t sign either player and try Johnny Damon on a one-year deal, then I would expect them to be serious suitors for Mauer once he hits free agency. What the Yankees do this offseason, spending-wise, could shed light on whether or not they’ll pursue Mauer. However, in terms of a Mauer signing, left field is not the only issue at play.
The second element is super prospect Jesus Montero. If the Yankees believe Montero can remain a catcher—it’s very unlikely, but they’ll give him every chance to succeed there—then they could stay out of the Mauer market. It is up to Montero though, to improve at his position, defensively. If they decide that he does not have a real future there, then the Yankees could move him to another position. However, given his physical limitations, primarily his lack of foot speed, the only other options for Montero are DH and first base. While first base isn’t a possibility (Teixeira), the Yankees could try Montero as their regular DH in 2011. That would then open up the door for Mauer to become the team’s catcher.
Of course, we must not forget about Jorge Posada. Posada is signed through 2011, though I doubt that would stop the Yankee from acquiring Mauer. Posada could be shifted to the DH role for the final year of his contract. Yet, as I stated a moment ago, Jesus Montero’s role with the club could effect things. Montero may be ready for 2011, therefore, having Jorge as your DH would hinder a possible promotion for the top prospect. Still, Montero will only be 21 through the ‘11 season, meaning that the Yankees could simply keep him in Triple-A for more experience (it would also help them in that it will prevent Montero’s free agency clock from being started). That would allow them to bring in Mauer and keep what is hopefully a productive Jorge Posada in their lineup, as well. If Posada wants to keep playing after his contract has expired, perhaps he could return as the DH (this will hinge on his ability to play, price, overall effectiveness, Montero’s readiness, etc.).
In sum, the Yankees could very well pursue Mauer for 2011, as Posada’s career will be ending at that point in time. With Jesus Montero in the catcher pipeline, the Yankees could also choose not to bring Mauer in, in the hopes that Montero will become Manny Ramirez behind the plate. However, Montero—with his size and lack of defensive tools—could ultimately outgrow the position, which would then create an external need for a successor to Jorge Posada. The Yankees could then opt for Mauer, assuming that they have the necessary funds. But, if the team signs one of Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, then their pursuit could be very limited. Regardless of whether or not the Yankees intend on actually signing Mauer, you can be assured that they’ll try to remain active in his market in order to drive the price up. The Red Sox will also be in search of a new catcher and Mauer will be the first, and possibly the only, name on their shopping list.
From Joel Sherman (NY Post):
Chien-Ming Wang was lost for the year. Ian Kennedy is only now returning from aneurysm surgery. In the last year, Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke and Phil Hughes all have been moved from the rotation to the bullpen.This is essentially the equivalent of having a whole rotation taken out of play and is a major reason why the Yankees did not send Joba Chamberlain to the minors in August when his struggles and the Yanks’ desire to shorten his outings converged. Yankee officials tell me there was really no option but to have Joba continue to do his work in the majors because the club already was dealing with a fifth starter spot combo of Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin.
But it is worthwhile to remember heading into next year that Chamberlain does not have the divine right to a major league job. The Marlins sent down Ricky Nolasco this year and the Brewers sent down Manny Parra. Chamberlain still has options, which means he is going to get the first opportunity to start and some rope to keep a job. And it is important to remember that the Yanks believe Chamberlain is on the way to the top of a rotation. However, he will not have endless rope in 2010 when theoretically both Hughes and Kennedy will both be rotation options again.
I would not be surprised to see the Yankees begin 2010 with Joba Chamberlain in the Scranton rotation, rather than pitching at the big league level, in any capacity (bullpen or rotation). His future will ultimately depend on a number of elements, including whether or not they can bring Andy Pettitte back and whether or not Hughes will be a starter, as well. In addition, the Yankees could choose to strengthen their rotation through a free agent signing (e.g., John Lackey), adding a stabilizing force which would also influence Joba’s role next season.
Clearly, Joba Chamberlain’s future in 2010 will be contingent upon a variety of factors and nothing is guaranteed (or, at least, nothing should be guaranteed). His status, like the rotation, is in flux and that’s the way it should be, especially when you consider his turbulent 2009 season.
