One question that has been floating around the Yankee blogosphere over the last 12 hours is the following, voiced by MJ over at Was Watching:
Why would you draft a player that you’re taking a flier on, let him pitch in the Cape Cod league and watch him dominate and then not sign him? Presumably, the performance in the Cape should’ve solidified and justified the draft-day gamble on him and given the Yanks comfort that their flier was justfiied.
Instead, according to a response I got from Baseball America’s Jim Callis, the Yanks balked at Lyons’s $500K bonus demand and will let him go back to OSU for his senior season. I find this very odd. While I philosophically understand the need to create a budget and stick to it, I am surprised that $500K was the budget’s threshold.
The answer is really very simple. Unlike those of us who follow prospects through the reports of others, the Yankees actually scout these players and make decisions based on more than numbers. The Yankees saw Lyons pitch at the Cape, and obviously picked up on something that made him less than a priority to them. They certainly did not pocket the money ticketed for Lyons, as they signed a number of players taken after him to bonuses larger than 500K. As Mike at RAB notes:
Well, after last night’s last minute signing of 44th rounder Evan DeLuca for $500,000, the Yanks have spent at least $6.185M on this draft, and that doesn’t include the likely six-figure bonuses given to 12th rounder Brett Gerritse, 13th rounder DeAngelo Mack, and 14th rounder Graham Stoneburner among others. It’s not difficult to envision a scenario where the Yanks spent $7M on this draft.
$7M on one draft class is a ton of money, but just how much? The epiphany draft of 2006 – the one that landed Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Zach McAllister, Mark Melancon, David Robertson and Dellin Betances – cost $6.7M. Just seven clubs spent more than that last year, and almost all of them had to shell major bucks out to top ten picks. By no means did the Yankees go cheap this year.
The Yankees had a very large budget, but it was still necessary to draw a line somewhere. They valued certain players as much or more than Lyons, and allocated the balance of their budget to those players.
Sorry for my recent absence. Things have been hectic over the last week or so, and will likely remain so until Friday. However, today’s signing deadline news is pretty important, so here is what has happened so far.
- Slade Heathcott, the Yankees’ first round pick, signed for 2.2 million, almost double the slot recommendation for the 29th pick. The 5-tool outfielder from Texas was seen as a safe bet to sign when he was drafted, though he was reportedly looking for a bonus around 2 million. Considering Heathcott’s leverage over the Yankees (there would be no compensation if they didn’t sign him), it makes sense that he got 2 million. It’s probably more than he would have signed for if another team drafted him, but Heathcott is talented enough to be worth the risk. Ryan Westmoreland, a similar type of talent, received 2 million from Boston last season.
- JR Murphy, the Yankees 2nd round pick, signed for 1.25 million, over double the recommended slot value for the pick (and more than twice what Austin Romine received in ‘07). This is low first-rounder money, and more than Boston’s first-rounder Reymond Fuentes received. The size of the bonus (the largest given out to a 2nd-rounder so far) indicates Murphy’s leverage (he had a scholarship to Miami, and there was no compensaton if he didn’t sign), but also is indicative of what the Yankees think of Murphy’s talent. I think of him as a similar player to Romine, with much better plate discipline (one of Romine’s weaknesses). He, along with Gary Sanchez, will be an exciting duo of catching prospects to follow in the low minors next season.
- Caleb Cotham, 5th-rounder and RHP from Vanderbilt, signed for a $650,000 dollar bonus, 4 times the recommended slot value. Cotham had leverage as a draft-eligible sophomore, but apparently his expectations were in line with the Yankees’ valuation of him. Cotham excelled in a short stint in the Cape Cod League this season, as he went 1-0 with 7 hits allowed and 1 walk in 13 scoreless innings, with 15 strikeouts. Cotham has a low-90’s sinker and a good slider, and Lane Meyer of NoMaas is high on his stuff, referring to Cotham as PMJ (Poor Man’s Joba). I would take that any day, and for $650,000, so would the Yankees.
- Graham Stoneburner, the Yankees’ 14th-rounder, has reportedly agreed to terms on an overslot bonus (still TBA). The draft-eligible sophomore from Clemson, who can hit 96 with his fastball, would be a nice addition to the Yankee farm. He has decent control, but needs to develop his secondary offerings if he is going to stay as a starter. Otherwise, he could be an exciting bullpen prospect.
- Bryan Mitchell, the Yankees’ 16th-round pick, was signed for $800,000. Mitchell, a 6′2″ high school RHP from North Carolina, was committed to UNC. The Yankees were following how he did in summer ball, and evidently, they were impressed enough to give him a big enough bonus to break the notoriously tough UNC commitment. Mitchell throws in the low-90’s with a good power curveball as his strikeout pitch. Mitchell is a nice prep pitching addition.
- Evan DeLuca, a LHP from Immaculata High School in New Jersey, signed at the last minute for a $500,000 bonus, much more than a typical 44th-round pick receives. DeLuca, signed away from the University of San Diego, is a 6′1″ lefty with a fastball that sits in the low-90’s, a sharp slider, and a decent changeup. Looks like another nice signing by the Yanks and Damon Oppenheimer.
Draft week is always my favorite week of the year. I picked this week to go camping before realizing what I was interfering with. After a week of monitoring the draft on my tiny little cell phone, I’ve got a lot to get out.
Slade Healthcott was a pick from confidence. They could very easily have picked up Brett Jackson, another athletic centerfielder who had big-program college experience. But Jackson was a lower-ceiling safeish bet compared to Heathcott. A lot of teams passed on his all-star potential because of his family and ACL issues. The Yankees decided to tackle these concerns head on and go for the guy who could be a real star. At the same time, Heathcott doesn’t look like another C.J. Henry or even Austin Jackson. He has a lot of baseball experience and success to go along with the athleticism.
Even with their confidence, it is important to remember that the Yankees are still building organizational knowledge and expertise. Looking at the first two days of the draft, I was reminded of this. The Yankees haven’t had a ton of success in teaching their talented prospects how to be major league caliber professionals, but they have had some good stories under the Oppenheimer Regime: Hughes and Joba Brett Gardner, Austin Jackson, Jesus Montero, Austin Romine, Zach McAllister. These guys are all development staff (as opposed to amateur scouting) success stories.
The Yankees used yet another high round pick on a catcher when they drafted J.R. Murphy. While some see this as the Yankees picking the best player available at the time, or a lack of confidence in Jesus Montero, Austin Romine, Chase Weems, Francisco Cervelli, and Kyle Higashioka, I read it differently. I think that the Yankees are sticking with what they know works. They’ve had a lot of success teaching catchers to catch and hit in recent years (Remember, Francisco Cervelli was a converted infielder, and Romine and Montero have gotten much better behind the plate since being drafted).
Heathcott may be more of that too. The Yankees have leanred a lot working with toolsy outfielders like C.J. Henry and Austin Jackson. You learn just as much from your failures as your successes. They have also kept Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner in the big leagues.
After the top two, the Yankees went back to their old formula again. They selected five college pitchers in the next six rounds. While none are as interesting as Ryan Pope or Andrew Brackman, they are experienced pitchers with good stuff and solid track records. At least one will probably become the next George Kontos or Tim Norton.
The Yankees went with what they know. My only disappointment? They failed again to draft a credible shortstop. Derek Jeter is getting old fast, and they couldn’t even find a decent college shortstop worth a 7th round pick. Their lack of depth at the position is going to hurt them very soon.
Grace dvdrip Sean Black is a great value pick in the 7th round, as he was 77th on Keith Law’s top 100 prospects. Here is the scouting report:
Black has one of the best arms among college starters this year, but his track record will push him down a few rounds in the draft. Black will sit 89-92 mph (watch scouting video) and touch 94 in the first few innings as a starter, but the pitch is true and he needs to command it better to pitch up in the zone when he faces better hitters in pro ball. His best pitch is a two-plane curveball that can be sharp at 76-78 mph, but it’s not consistent and can become slurvy. He throws a split but doesn’t have much feel for it and uses it rarely. Black’s competitiveness is also open to question; he’s not aggressive in going after hitters and doesn’t show much emotion of any sort on the mound. His arm action isn’t clean, as he jerks his arm back late and shows the ball to the center fielder, and he drifts toward the plate instead of driving toward it. In a relief role, he can sit 93-94 and has more consistency on the curveball, and that is probably his ultimate role in the big leagues.
Brooks is another good pick, a LHP from UCLA:
Gavin Brooks, LHP- Brooks will undoubtedly be the most intriguing Bruin in the draft. Brooks was one of the region’s top high school pitchers are a junior and sure-fire high draft pick as a junior, but he missed his entire senior season due to injury and ended up at UCLA. As a freshman, Brooks set a number of UCLA freshman records and was unhittable down the stretch, registering three consecutive complete games, the final two in the postseason. Because of his finish, Brooks entered his sophomore year with high expectations, but little injuries bothered him all year and he was never consistent or better than mediocre. In his junior year, Brooks imploded early on, was banished from the rotation and was written off by many. Brooks rebounded though to establish himself as a solid closer with nine saves glimpses of the outstanding stuff that wowed scouts as a freshman. Brooks will likely go fairly high in the draft and get a solid sum of money as a signing bonus, but he could come back and really improve his stock if he can show some consistency. I don’t think he’ll return, but he’s one of the few juniors who could really boost his stock with a good senior year.
Brooks has a big time arm, and is good value in the 8th round.
The 9th rounder was Sam Elam. Here is BP from their roundtable:
Didn’t think we’d be hearing Sam Elam’s name in the top 10, a lefty from Notre Dame. Elam has a one of the better raw left-handed relief arms in the country, but it’s been a long time since he’s known where a ball is going. 29 walks in 31.1 innings this season, and he was worse over the summer. A Yankees scout must see something fixable, because if it gets straightened out, it’s great stuff.
10th rounder was Tyler Lyons, lefty from Ok. State. Mike at RAB likes the pick a lot, as he was 153 on BA’s list. From RAB:
O Brother, Where Art Thou? movie download Lyons and Baylor’s Kendal Volz led Team USA with matching 0.00 ERAs last summer, when the squad 24-0 and won the gold medal at the FISU World Championships in the Czech Republic. Both have seen their stuff dip and their draft stock significantly this spring. Lyons sat at 87-90 mph with his fastball as a sophomore and picked up a couple of mph as a Team USA reliever, but he has worked mostly at 86-87 mph in 2009. He’s not hurt, though one scout noted that he has lost some of the extension in his delivery. His changeup has regressed, too, though it’s still a solid-average pitch. Lyons has improved his curveball, which is now on par with his changeup. The 6-foot-2, 207-pounder still throw strikes, keeps the ball down in the zone and competes with a warrior mentality, so he still has put up the best numbers (7-6, 4.07) in Oklahoma State’s rotation. As a savvy lefthander with solid stuff, Lyons had a chance to go in the second round. He increased his chances of going that high by throwing at 89-92 mph and looking more like his old self in the NCAA regionals.
11th rounder was power hitting leftfielder Neil Medchill, who was 160th on BA’s list:
The Mets drafted Medchill in the 33rd round as a redshirt sophomore a year ago, failing to sign him after he led the Santa Barbara Foresters to the NBC World Series championship in August. He could go as many as 30 rounds higher this June to a team looking for a college power hitter. Some scouts grade his raw lefthanded power as a 7 on the 2-8 scale, and it’s reminiscent of that of former Cowboy Corey Brown, an Athletics sandwich pick in 2007 who hit 30 homers in his first full pro season last year. Medchill has reached double figures in home runs in each of his two seasons at Oklahoma State after beginning his college career at Chandler-Gilbert (Ariz.) CC, and he’ll deliver more power if he turns on more pitches and adds more lift to his swing. Like Brown, he has some holes in his swing and will strike out. Medchill has added 18 pounds in the last year and now carries 218 on his 6-foot-4 frame. The extra bulk has cost him a step and made him a slightly below-average runner, and he has an average arm. He probably fits best as a left fielder in pro ball.
The Yankees selected UNC RHP Adam Warren with their fourth rounder. Here is what I could dig up on him:
UNC senior Adam Warren’s postseason success has been hard for scouts to overlook — six earned runs in 22 1/3 innings, with 23 strikeouts against just two walks. But the evidence is not just in the statistics. Scouts in attendance for the NCAA Tournament clocked Warren’s fastball consistently in the low 90s and were overheard noting that he was clearly better than they had previously evaluated. Baseball America’s Aaron Fitt told the Raleigh News & Observer that the third or fourth round is now a realistic possibility for Warren.
Warren actually has his own blog. Mike at RAB thinks this is an overdraft, and a sign that the Yankees may actually be sticking to a budget.
In the 5th round, they selected Vanderbilt righty Caleb Cotham:
Vanderbilt also had a disappointing season, though the Commodores at least made NCAA regionals. No pitchers after Minor stepped forward, though sophomore-eligible righthander Caleb Cotham showed flashes. He was a sinker-slider pitcher most of the time and missed time due to knee soreness. He came back working in more of a relief role and showed a plus slider at times out of the bullpen. He works off the slider and his 88-92 mph fastball with decent sink, though for many starts his velo was in the 87-88 range. Cotham throws a curveball and changeup as well, but he rarely has all four pitches working. That accounted for his 14 home runs allowed in 70 innings.
He does have some success against wood bats, something Oppenheimer usually focuses on:
Went a team-best 5-1 with 2.54 ERA in eight starts for Brewster in the Cape Cod League over the summer. Struck out 51 in 46 innings of work. Opponents hit just .209 off him. He was named a Cape Cod League All-Star reserve.
(Quotes from comments at RAB).
Mike at RAB considers it a solid pick for this round. Apparently he would be a first day pick in 2010 who dropped due to his knee problem.
From BA:
Two good college senior values in the fourth: Kent Matthes, Alabama outfielder who led the nation with 28 homers this spring, to the Rockies, who continue their fine draft; and North Carolina righthander Adam Warren to the Yankees. Warren pumps his fastball up to 93 mph regularly, sits average with it and his slider and has solid-average command of both pitches.
From BP:
“Caleb Cotham, rhp, Vanderbilt. Many of you know the affinity I hold for the Cape Cod League, and Cotham was very good with the Brewster Whitecaps one year ago. The right-hander allowed just 34 hits in 46 innings, striking out 51 batters on the summer. Inconsistency, as it has throughout his career at Vanderbilt, plagued his season, as Cotham managed only a 4.10 ERA in 13 starts as a junior. Commodores coaches put Cotham in the bullpen towards the end of the season, but when they let him loose as a starter in the postseason, the Cape version of Cotham was there: a complete game shut out of Middle Tennessee State and a seven-inning, one run domination of Arkansas in the SEC Tournament. All told, 16 innings, with a strikeout-to-walk of 15/1, thanks to the rediscovery of a two-plane slider. Tim Corbin tells me he thinks with one more season, his coaches could make Cotham a first rounder. If I’m a team in the middle rounds, I don’t let Corbin get the chance.
BA on Cotham:
Tough sign alert—Vanderbilt eligible sophomore righthander Caleb Cotham went to the Yankees near the end of the fifth. Cotham made some money with a complete game effort in the Louisville regional. At his best, he’s a power sinker-slider pitcher, with his slider reaching 87 mph in shorter outings.
6th rounder was 3B Robert Lyerly. He apparently has immense power but poor plate discipline.
The first two rounds (plus the sandwich round) were very interesting to follow, as this was thought to be a very difficult draft to predict, due to the multitude of players demanding overslot bonuses. As Aaron Crow, Grant Green, Kyle Gibson, and Matt Purke all went off the board before the Yankees were going to pick, I was hoping that the Yankees would take Tanner Scheppers, who has been throwing gas in Indy Ball. While this did not happen, the Yankees did take the #2 player remaining on my board, Texas HS outfielder Slade Heathcott, a 5-tool athletic talent with a high ceiling at a premium position (and the player I predicted the Yankees would pick last night). Despite Heathcott’s LSU commitment, signability does not appear to be an issue with this pick.
After seeing the Yankees pass on Scheppers for Heathcott, I hoped to see Scheppers fall to the Yankees’ 2nd pick, at #76 overall. Alas, Scheppers did not make it through the sandwich round, taken at #44 by the Rangers, who were also able to nab Purke in the first round, and have the potential for an impressive (albeit expensive) pair of power pitching prospects.
With Scheppers out of the picture, I turned my attention to David Renfroe, the athletic high school shortstop who the Yankees had been scouting heavily, despite his 3 million dollar bonus demands. Other high school prospects like Luke Bailey and Max Stassi were also not taken, and I saw them as possibilities for #76. Instead, the Yankees took John Murphy, a catcher from Pendleton High School in Florida, a Miami commit. While not as sexy a name as Stassi or Bailey, Murphy is an intriguing prospect in his own right, with great plate discipline and hitting ability combined with good athleticism that has allowed him to convert to catching without much trouble. He is also likely signable. With Murphy taken, I hoped to see Renfroe last until tomorrow, but he was taken by Boston at the end of the 3rd round, as a pitcher.
Overall, I am happy but not blown away with the first day picks. I am very pleased with Heathcott, as guys who have the combination of tools and baseball skills that he possesses are usually not available that late in the first round. He is certainly a risky pick, but he’s signable, and has star potential. Murphy was a less exciting pick with Renfroe, Stassi, and Bailey still on the board, but the more I read about his hitting ability and plate discipline, the happier I am with the pick. The fact that the Yankees drafted 2 guys early who should sign close to slot will allow them to spend on overslot picks today and Thursday.
There are 27 rounds today, beginning at 11:30 with the 4th round, and the Yankees will have 27 chances to quiet the raging reactionary masses from nyyfans who demand that the Yankees draft and sign every overslot player. There is still a lot of talent out there, including 2 college pitchers I mentioned as potential second-round picks (Kendal Volz and Chris Dwyer) as well as more highly regarded high school catchers (Stassi, Bailey, Austin Maddox). Some other guys to keep an eye out for are Westfield HS pitcher Christopher Jenkins, Arizona reliever Jason Stoffel, and other high school arms such as Madison Younginer, Keyvius Sampson, Daniel Tuttle, and Scott Griggs. Of these guys, Jenkins followed by Volz are the 2 that I like best. Historically, rounds 4-10 are the rounds where the Yankees do the most damage in regard to drafting players overslot (especially round 8), so we could see some fireworks in the early going. Stay tuned. I’m busy all day today, but I’ll try to get some writeups of the more interesting picks up tonight.
It is far too early to be judging the Yankee draft, and it will continue to be premature to do so for several years. Nonetheless, I hope to see the Yanks get a little more aggressive tomorrow, and pick up some overslot talents.
Tune in at 11:30 for a reaction piece from our very own Eric Schultz. Until then, here is a roundup of the reactions to the Yankee selections last night. From Baseball Prospectus:
Kevin Goldstein (5:36:43 PM PT): Yankfan21 (Work – still…): So, Heathcott? With Scheppers and Rex Brothers on the board, I am completely underwhelmed and under impressed. Any reason I should not be?
KG: I’d be pretty happy. I think both of those pitchers are relievers in the end. You can find relievers at lot easier than you can find tools like Heathcott.
From Baseball America:
Then we have to ask about, well, the instant analysis of “losers” seems ridiculous to say but it is what it is. What teams left you wanting a bit more? I would say I wasn’t hot on the Fuentes pick with Boston, and also Cincinnati, with Mike Leake seeming a bit too high at 8. And last, I’d say the Yankees, because I really have questions about Heathcott’s makeup.
Also from BA, via SI:
Slade Heathcott gets a Josh Hamilton comparison from Frank Marcos of the ML Scouting Bureau, which frankly is not too accurate. But he does have major tools, with power from the left side, a big-time arm and some real makeup issues.
From Baseball Analysts:
Rich: Heathcott wouldn’t have been available had he not been injured or had personal issues. He might ask for more than slot but the Yankees can afford to give it to him. Don’t see New York losing its first-round pick two years in a row.
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Marc: Nice, nice pick by the Yankees. Definitely fell because of makeup issues and he has the talent to be a monster.
Rich: I saw Heathcott hit and pitch at the Area Code Games last August. I also watched how he carried himself after the game. The kid seemed a little cocky to me and has enough hot dog in him that he did a cartwheel and back flip before the Aflac Classic in honor of Ozzie Smith, who was the honorary chairman. But there is no doubting his talent. Hit 91 on the gun and struck out the side (although not in order). He hit a groundball single up the middle in one of the two ABs I witnessed. Grounded out to shortstop in the other. In the Aflac game, he went with a pitch on the outside corner and singled in a run against Zack Wheeler in the first inning that gave the West an early 1-0 lead. He also pitched the ninth inning and was saddled with the loss after giving up four runs. I wrote down “most athletic player” next to his name on my scoresheet even though I didn’t care for his attitude.
And from nomaas:
The important thing about Murphy though is that he’s not only a bat-first guy, but Baseball America ranked him as having the 2nd best strikezone judgement of all HS hitters in the draft. Getting, young, bat-first position players into the system was something that we all had hoped to see from the Yankees, and today they landed two of them. The beautiful thing about this is that both project to keep improving because of there athleticism in conjunction with present hitting tools – these are not maxed out guys, but at the same time they aren’t major projects. Murphy is an offensively driven catcher who spent his senior year moving up draft boards, and has all the tools necessary to keep getting better. This is what I like to call an elevator pick – you know it came up some already to stop at the floor you take it, but you get on it anyway because you you have reason to believe it will keep going higher.
With Murphy not being a potential multi-million dollar signing, the Yankees have given themselves room to go out and get a lot of really solid signability guys on day two.
John Murphy, a catcher from Pendleton High School in Florida. This spring, Murphy hit a ridiculous .627 with 11 home runs and 66 RBI’s for a nationally ranked team against strong Florida competition. While playing on the Florida Bombers in the summer, he broke records held in the past by Eric Hosmer, Jemile Weeks, and JP Arencibia, all first-rounders.
Murphy, listed at 6′0″ 190, is a recent convert to catcher who has taken to the position well. He was an outfielder and a 3rd baseman in the past, so he has decent athleticism behind the plate, and seems likely to stay a catcher as a pro. He is a polished righty hitter with good contact skills, a line-drive swing, and some power potential. He also was rated to have the 2nd-best strike zone judgement of all the high school hitters in the draft, and the Yankees definitely do value plate discipline. He is still learning the catcher position, and does not seem to have all the instincts down yet, most evaluators are confident that he can learn.
Nice Dreams psp I didn’t know anything about Murphy prior to the selection, but apparently he was one of the top prospects in Florida, with a commitment to baseball powerhouse Miami. He was considered a possible supplemental round pick because of his bat and his likelihood to stay at catcher. He’s not a super sexy pick, but his hitting ability should make him valuable, especially if he can stay at catcher, as he is projected to do. At best, he can be an above-average offensive catcher who could be an average to above-average defender. He probably does not have an all-star ceiling, but his offensive polish could allow him to advance through the minors quickly if his defense continues to improve. Again, not an exciting pick (reminds me of the Romine pick a few years ago), but I assume he will sign, so I am satisfied. I hope there are more high-ceiling guys coming later.
Here’s a scouting video of Murphy.
Astérix et la surprise de César move Martin and Lewis buy Slade Heathcott, a 2-way player from Texas High school in Texarkana who will probably be an outfielder in the Yankee system. Heathcott is 6′1″ 196 with an athletic build, who was also a standout high school football player before tearing his ACL in his senior year. He was able to recover and play baseball in the spring, hitting .457 despite playing with a knee brace and missing some time due to a suspension for academic reasons (so I’ve heard). He has recently caught fire, hitting 3 home runs in the playoffs with many scouts watching him (including Yankee scouts) so he has picked the right time to get hot.
The scouting reports on Heathcott are consistently impressive, citing the potential for 5 plus tools. He has plus power from the left side along with good hitting ability, and is able to hit to all fields successfully. Heathcott displayed above-average speed even while playing with a brace, and it could be plus when his knee is healthy. Defensively speaking, he has the capability to man all 3 outfield positions, and has the tools to stick in centerfield and be a good defender there. His throwing arm is also excellent, a product of his ability to hit 95 with the fastball. He is also a great athlete, and his baseball skills are very impressive considering he was also a serious football player.
There is a lot to like about Heathcott, but the biggest knocks against him are related to his character and makeup. In addition to his suspension, Heathcott comes from a broken home (his father is incarcerated on drug charges, and his mother has had drug problems as well), and this has reflected negatively on Slade. There may be other issues, though nothing major has been specified.
All in all, I really like this pick. Heathcott is a a high ceiling player at a premium position with first round tools and athleticism, who will also be signable for a reasonable amount of money. I don’t know the extent of his personal issues, but it is possible that his tough home life has toughened him up, so maybe he won’t be the kind of guy to give up and quit if he starts to struggle. There is certainly a lot of risk between the character issues and the knee surgery, but Heathcott is the type of player the Yankees should be taking a risk on. If all goes right for him, he could be a star. If Heathcott takes somewhere between 1.5 and 2 million, that will leave the Yankees plenty of money to spend on overslot picks in later rounds, including hopefully Tanner Scheppers.
From Keith Law:
Price tags on players in this draft continue to rise, with over 90 player saying they will only sign for first-round money.
Essentially, what this means is that some of the top prospects may drop much further than expected, as teams will attempt to identify the most signable of those 90 players and stick to those. Once those players drop past the first round, there is no telling how far they might drop. To illustrate this point, Law is now reporting that BC catcher Tony Sanchez has a deal in place with the Pirates at 4. Sanchez is widely considered a first round talent due to his sparkling defense, but he is a bit of a reach at 4 and probably signifies the Pirates unwillingness to overpay a better talent. A look at the top of the draft from Law and Jim Callis further drives home this point. First, from Callis:
1. Nationals: San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg.
2. Mariners: North Carolina first baseman Dustin Ackley.
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3. Padres: Georgia HS outfielder Donavan Tate.
4. Pirates: Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez.
5. Orioles: California HS righthander Matt Hobgood.
6. Giants: Georgia HS righthander Zack Wheeler.
7. Braves: Vanderbilt lefthander Mike Minor.
8. Reds: North Carolina righhander Alex White.
He has top prep arm Tyler Matzek falling out of the top 8, while lesser talents such as Sanchez, Hobgood, and Minor slide into the top of the draft. Law has Matzek going 6th, but shows a similar fate for some of the top arms looking for lots of dough:
Stephen Strasburg
Dustin Ackley
Donovan Tate
Tony Sanchez
Zack Wheeler
Tyler Matzek
Alex White
Mike Minor
Jacob Turner
Drew Storen
Bobby Borchering
Mike Leake
Grant Green
Shelby Miller
Rex Brothers or Eric Arnett
If the Padres can’t afford Tate, they’ll take Wheeler, and the Orioles would probably take Matt Hobgood. The A’s alternative at No. 13 is Mike Trout, but I think they’ll take Green.
With Storen, Minor, and Sanchez in the top 10, players such as Purke, Gibson, Scheppers, and Crow could slide out of the first round entirely, making it likely that one of that group would be around when the Yankees pick at 76. This should be a fascinating draft, as it is as wide open a draft as I can recall. Tune in at 6 for Eric’s liveblog and writeups on all important Yankee picks.
