Yesterday, A.J. Burnett told reporters that he plans to cut down on his walks in 2010, after issuing 97 of them a season ago. “I would like to not walk as many people, go a little deeper in the games and be a little more efficient like [CC] is,” noted Burnett. “He’s real efficient with his pitches. He’s 12-15 an inning as opposed to 20-25 an inning, and it helps. Being more efficient in strike one, and just not give away free bags. Let them earn their bases.” Not only was Burnett’s 4.22 BB/9 the second highest mark of his career when tossing 100 or more innings in a season, it was also the highest mark he had posted in eight years (he walked 4.31 per nine innings in 2001). Basically, the base-on-balls was a significant problem for the tattooed right-hander in 2009, as nearly 11% of his at-bats resulted in a free pass.

While it is difficult to explain the uptick in Burnett’s walk rate last season – his career rate is 3.78 – there are some factors to consider that might shed a bit of light on the issue. First, in the first year of his contract with New York, Burnett dealt with some mechanical flaws in his delivery, which likely caused many of his command problems. He was also dealing with a series of complex contextual elements, such as working with a new catcher, moving to a new area, joining a new team, playing in a new ballpark, and so on and so forth. For instance, at one point last season, Burnett admitted to trying to throw harder as the fans in Yankee Stadium cheered louder, which consequently hurt his ability to locate pitches effectively. These things, in tandem, likely contributed to Burnett’s particularly wild year.

If the 33-year old hopes to improve upon his 2009 campaign, slowing his walk rate would be a very good start.

Photo by the AP

Not sure if this was reported as a standalone item anywhere, but Erik Boland of Newsday informs us that manager, Joe Girardi, has announced that Jorge Posada will catch A.J. Burnett this season. A serious amount of ink was devoted to the Burnett-Posada duo a season ago, after the two seemed to have “problems” working with one another, which led Girardi to install Jose Molina as Burnett’s everyday catcher (and which Posada did not like very much).

Result-wise, while there may be some substance to the notion that the two did not gel well as a unit – over 16 games with Posada behind the plate, Burnett held hitters to a .270/.353/.421 line and posted a rather poor K/BB of 1.72 (79/46), and with Molina, Burnett held hitters to .221/.307/.352 line over 11 games while posting a much improved 2.66 K/BB (77/29) – in reality, as stated by a number of articles, much of Burnett’s struggles last season were not actually Posada-related, rather, they were brought on by mechanical problems with the now 33-year old’s delivery. Unfortunately for Posada, he became a newspaper causality of these struggles, as it is much more interesting to discuss a pitcher and a catcher’s seemingly ineffectual relationship instead of mechanical flaws in one’s motion.

Anyway, to Burnett’s credit, he is excited to begin working with Posada this season and wants to disprove last season’s media-driven controversy regarding the two as batterymates. “I was looking forward to it from the first day of camp to be able to put that behind us and start working together,” Burnett said today when asked about throwing to Posada this season. “A lot of stuff was blown out of proportion last year and we’ve talked a handful of times already and we’re just real excited to put that behind us and move on, get better and learn from each other.” He also took fault for last year’s woes, saying that he was not right in the head, at times, and was often questioning himself, not Posada.

Photo by Reuters

Lineups via LoHud:

YANKEES
Derek Jeter SS
Johnny Damon LF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Melky Cabrera CF
Andy Pettitte P

Pitching: LHP Andy Pettitte (2-0, 2.37 postseason ERA)

PHILLIES
Jimmy Rollins SS
Shane Victorino CF
Chase Utley 2B
Ryan Howard 1B
Jayson Werth RF
Raul Ibanez LF
Pedro Feliz 3B
Carlos Ruiz C
Cole Hamels P

Pitching: LHP Cole Hamels (1-1, 6.75 postseason ERA)

TIME/TV: 7:57 p.m., FOX

Here are Hamels’ numbers against the Yankees, via Baseball-Reference.

Here are Pettitte’s numbers against the Phillies, via Baseball-Reference.

I think Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter will both have big nights against Cole Hamels.

It’s raining pretty hard right (I’m basing this on what I see on TV). Hopefully, we’ll have baseball tonight.

For Game 2 of the World Series, Jerry Hairston Jr. will start in right field over the struggling Nick Swisher. Hairston’s line against Pedro Martinez over 27 at-bats is .370/.433/.519. Of course, those at-bats are from years ago, when Pedro was with Boston and Hairston was with Baltimore, but Pedro was better back then, so maybe they’ll help Hairston tonight. Part of me wants to criticize Girardi for the move, as it smacks of desperation, but, to be honest, Swisher has looked awful at the plate—he’s practically diving on top of the ball before it gets to him—so I can’t complain (in Swisher’s defense, he did face Cliff Lee last night, who was damn near unhittable).

UPDATE – I’m left wondering, why not start Gardner or Hinske rather than rely upon dated stats?

From Adam Spunberg (YESNetwork.com):

Robertson is an amiable guy, but he let his affability extend to the Phillies today. After Marte came in and expertly navigated through two outs of a jam, Robertson proceeded to walk Jayson Werth and surrender a two-RBI single to Raul Ibanez. Good-natured Dave should offer to do CC Sabathia’s laundry for a week after muddying what had been a detergent-fresh start.

While Spunberg is correct in that David Robertson allowed a frustrating 2-out 2 RBI single after Damaso Marte had already pulled a rabbit out of a hat, I think placing this much blame upon him is absurd. Robertson allowed a weak single to Ibanez, that’s true, however, Phil Hughes had already walked two men—Rollins and Victorino—in that half inning and they were the two runs. The hit wouldn’t have mattered if Hughes had done his job (or if he had done even 1/3 of his job), but, then again, if that were the case, Robertson would not have been facing Raul Ibanez to begin with.

Last night’s loss, a 6-1 drubbing, can be connected to the poor job done by the Yankees offense and by two relievers, specifically—Hughes and Bruney. To heap blame upon anyone else is both unwarranted and unfair. Then again, I guess you could criticize Joe Girardi for bringing in Brian Bruney, who was awful in what will hopefully be his only appearance this series. I can see that move as a premature, informal surrendering of sorts, as he promptly gave up 2 earned runs and put the game out of reach for the Bombers’ bats. Still, while that’s a legitimate managerial critique, the Yankees didn’t lose because of that decision, instead, it just made winning that much more difficult in the 9th inning.

Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

If you were hoping to see Jay-Z perform today, that performance has been moved to Game 2 (rain).

Lineups via LoHud:

YANKEES
Derek Jeter SS
Johnny Damon LF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Hideki Matsui DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Melky Cabrera CF

Pitching: LHP CC Sabathia (3-0, 1.19 ERA in postseason)

PHILLIES
Jimmy Rollins SS
Shane Victorino CF
Chase Utley 2B
Ryan Howard 1B
Jayson Werth RF
Raul Ibanez DH
Ben Francisco LF
Pedro Feliz 3B
Carlos Ruiz C

Pitching: LHP Cliff Lee (2-0, 0.74 ERA in postseason)

TIME/TV: 7:57 p.m., FOX

Here are CC’s numbers against the Phillies (via Baseball-Reference):

Here are Lee’s numbers against the Yankees (via Baseball-Reference):

A-Rod has hit .333/.450/.733 against Lee with 2 HR and 6 RBI. I bet he knocks one out tonight.

Due to practical time constraints, I’ve been unable to complete a thorough pitching analysis (those infield and outfield comparisons took longer than expected). Rather than offer a diluted version, I encourage you to check out Mike’s pitching breakdowns over at River Ave Blues. He’s done a very nice job evaluating the Phillies starting staff as well as their bullpen. In the end, I think it’s fair to say that the Yankees have better pitching, which is why they’ll ultimately win the World Series (in 5, as per my prediction).

Earlier today, I compared Philadelphia’s infield to New York’s infield and, although the matchup was relatively close, I concluded that the Yankees had the better group of players, overall. Now, I’m looking at outfields and DH options.

RIGHT FIELD

Nick Swisher (SW): Ah, the lovable Nick Swisher, who many thought should have been benched during the latter portion of the ALCS. Swish suffered from a tough matchup in that he never hit any of the Angels well, so I’m not going to expect him to play poorly against the Phillies. What I do know, however, is that Swisher hit .249/.371/.498 during the regular season, clubbing 29 home runs (or away runs, I guess, when you consider the splits), while having the highest walk percentage of any right fielder in 2009 (16.3 %). His wOBA of .375 was also the 4th best in the AL at right. Basically, Swisher is a good offensive player, regardless of his ALCS struggles. In addition, he’s also a pretty good right fielder. Though his 0.5 UZR and -1.6 UZR/150 would have you believe that he’s merely average with the glove, Swisher’s range rating—5.5 runs above average—says otherwise. The kid can do it all, folks (3.7 WAR).

Jayson Werth (RH): To be perfectly honest, while I’m not trying to discount Ryan Howard’s talent, Jayson Werth could very well be the Phillies’ scariest all around position player behind my man crush, Chase Utley. He’s just that good. In 2009, Werth hit .268/.373/.506, with 36 home runs, 99 RBI, and a .382 wOBA (3rd best in the NL at his position). He’s both powerful and patient (91 walks), much like a Yankee. While his speed score is Ryan Howardesque at 4.8, Werth managed to swipe 20 bases this year in 23 tries. Simply put, like Swisher, the man can play. He’s also rated well by defensive metrics, as UZR has him at 6.3 (5.7 UZR/150)—tops in the NL (good arm, good range). Once you combine Werth’s offensive and defensive talent, you have a player that is worth 4.7 WAR. He is Philadelphia’s best kept secret—a 6’ 5’’ superstar that no one really knows about.

Pitching to Werth: The Yankees are going to want to stay on the outer part of the strike zone in order to limit Werth’s power. Most of his home runs this season have been to left field, meaning he likes to pull pitches. Although he can hit the ball all over the park, only 4 of his homers were hit to right field, so if they can live on the outer edge of the zone, perhaps they’ll be able to prevent some of his powerful production. Working ahead of Werth is also key as he is a strikeout candidate. In fact, he strikes out 27.3% of the time, which is the 3rd highest percentage in baseball at his position.

Winner: Werth. He’s simply a better player.

CENTER FIELD

Melky Cabrera (SW): Melky is the Yankees worst hitter, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing when you’re in a lineup as deep as New York’s. He hit .274/.336/.416 this season with a .331 wOBA (9th in the league). While his offense is limited, thanks in part to the new Yankee Stadium, Melky managed to hit 13 homers and, in total, he drove in 68 runs. Plus, the Melk Man is a sleeper on the base paths. He stole 10 bases this season in 12 tries, despite a slightly below average speed score of 4.4 (5 is average). On the defensive side of things, Melky is no slouch in the outfield. He’s rated average by UZR (2.6) and most of that rating is based on his range. He also has a good arm, however, he needs to use it wisely (i.e., no overthrowing). Altogether, he’s worth 1.6 WAR, which is the third lowest value among AL center fielders.

Shane Victorino (SW): As Chad Jennings recently noted, the Yankees would probably like Austin Jackson to develop into a player like Victorino. The Flyin’ Hawaiian hit .292/.358/.445 this year with a .354 wOBA (2nd best for an NL center fielder). Surprisingly, he only hit 10 home runs when most thought he would get closer to 20 after his 14 home run campaign in 2008. For what he lacks in power, he seems to make up for in his speed, as Victorino stole 25 bases this season (though he did get caught 8 times). His speed score of 7.4 is also the 3rd highest in the NL. Moving away from offense, Victorino’s defense has been trumpeted as a significant asset, yet his UZR this year wasn’t particularly impressive. After being rated the 3rd best defender in the NL, at his position, in 2008, Victorino’s -4.2 UZR has him ranked closer to the bottom of the pack in 2009. This is primarily due to a huge decrease in Victorino’s range rating (-0.1 a year ago, -8.9 this year). He still has a plus arm, however, so runners beware. I wonder if Victorino’s disappointing rating have been influenced by the influx of defensive talent in center this season, making Victorino’s score lower than what it would have been in years past (it’s a relative stat). In the end, whatever the reasoning for Victorino’s down defensive year, he’s still worth 3.4 WAR (6th best in the NL).

Pitching to Victorino: Victorino, a switch-hitter, is better against lefties than he is against righties, an attribute that could definitely benefit him in this series (against Sabathia and Pettitte). According to pitch value data, he’s a total fastball hitter, so it would be best for the Yankees to attack him with a lot of breaking stuff or at least spot the fastball inside when he’s batting right-handed and outside when he’s batting left-handed. He’s 7.5 runs below average on changeups, and he also doesn’t hit sliders well. These are numbers that could haunt him in Game 1, when facing CC Sabathia. Don’t expect Victorino to strikeout much, though. He K’d 11.5% of the time this season, the lowest such percentage of any center fielder in the NL.

Winner: Victorino. His bat is better than Melky’s bat, plus he has real speed.

LEFT FIELD

Johnny Damon (LH): Johnny Damon had a pretty nice contract year in 2009, hitting .282/.365/.489, while swatting all 24 of his home runs—a career high—over the short porch at Yankee Stadium (he had 0 opposite field home runs). Furthermore, Damon’s .376 wOBA was the 3rd highest in the AL at his respective position, and he exhibited solid plate patience, walking 11.4% of the time (2nd highest for AL left fielders). At the age of 35, the wheels are still intact, though they’re nowhere near as good as they used to be. Damon stole 12 bases in 2009, his lowest total since he debuted with the Royals in 1995. His 5.9 speed score was also the lowest of his career. In terms of his defense, Damon went from being one of the better left fielders in the game in 2008 (6.7 UZR, 11.6 UZR/150), to one of the worst in 2009 (-11.2 UZR, -11.9 UZR/150). He has looked bad in left field all year and one wonders how this will cost the team going forward. Therefore, while his offensive value is a plus, especially at Yankee Stadium, Damon’s poor defense severely impacts his overall value (2.8 WAR—the 2nd lowest value in the AL).

Raul Ibanez (LH): Ibanez is an incredible player in that he seems to get better as he gets older. In his first season with the Phillies, the 37-year old hit .272/.347/.552, drove in 93 runs, and clubbed a career high 34 homers. His wOBA of .379 was the 3rd best in the NL amongst left fielders and, amazingly, his .552 slugging percentage was the second best of any outfielder in either league (he trailed only Adam Lind in that category). The only problem with Ibanez, offensively, is that he didn’t hit much in the second half. After spending some time on the DL earlier in the year, Ibanez returned to the Philly lineup and hit .232/.326/.448 after the All-Star Break (with only 12 home runs). That would suggest that he’s still hurting. Though Ibanez’s offense this season has been above its typical level, despite the second half swoon, his defense has also been abnormally good. His UZR this season was 6.9 (8.1 UZR/150), the 3rd best in the league. In 2007-08, Ibanez was awful in the outfield, so this could very well be a statistical anomaly. This year, because of his significant offensive and defensive contributions, Ibanez was worth 4.7 WAR (2nd best value for an NL left fielder).

Pitching to Ibanez: For his career, Ibanez has hit righties better than lefties (.850 OPS versus .760 OPS). However, in 2009, the inverse was true as he did much of his damage against southpaws (.998 OPS versus .859 OPS). Most of Ibanez’s home runs were pulled to right field, so if the Yankees want to attack him appropriately, soft stuff away seems like the best route (and if you go inside, like many other pull hitters, make sure to handcuff him, don’t leave anything low and over the plate). That should prevent him from going deep over Nick Swisher’s mohawk.

Winner: I’m inclined to say Ibanez, but his second half is troubling and he hasn’t done much in the playoffs to downplay the issue (.226/.333/.387). For this reason, I’m going to have to go with Damon, who has hit safely in his last 6 playoff games (with 2 HR and 5 RBI).

DESIGNATED HITTER

Hideki Matsui (LH): This is a quick one. Matsui batted .274/.367/.509 this season. He has 28 home runs—a Yankees DH record—and 90 RBI to his name. He has had a tough postseason, thus far, but his postseason numbers have always been very good, therefore, I’m hesitant to say that the problems will carry over into the World Series (he will face two good lefties in Hamels and Lee, however). On the season, Matsui’s .378 wOBA and 2.4 WAR were 3rd best amongst designated hitters. Only Adam Lind and Jason Kubel were better (yet Kubel can’t hit lefties while Matsui can).

Matt Stairs (LH)/Ben Francisco (RH): I expect the Phillies to do a few things with the DH role. They’ll likely use Raul Ibanez as the DH and play the right-handed Ben Francisco in left field, or they could choose to go with the lefty Matt Stairs, perhaps against A.J. Burnett (he has been awful this season, however). I believe the Francisco idea is the most likely one, especially for tonight, with a lefty on the mound. If you’re wondering about Francisco, who was part of the Cliff Lee package the Cleveland Indians sent over to Philly, he hit a respectful .257/.332/.446 with 15 home runs and 14 stolen bases. Although many seem to consider him a good outfielder, in limited playing time, UZR rates Francisco rather poorly in left (-6.6, -12.9 UZR/150).

Pitching to Stairs/Francisco: If it’s Francisco, according to pitch value data, changeups and soft stuff will work, but you can certainly challenge him with fastballs (he does have some power, however). He doesn’t hit righties or lefties particularly well, which makes things easier for Joe Girardi. If the Yankees are pitching to Stairs, he’ll always have power, but at 41, he cheats to catch up to the fastball. The Yankees can probably beat him with any pitch that is located properly.

Winner: Matsui. This is the AL advantage.

In sum, while the Yankees have a better infield, the Phillies have a better outfield. Their DH candidates don’t really inspire much confidence, however, as Hideki Matsui is better than any combination of players that they could trot out on a given day (even if they use Ibanez as the DH and put Francisco in left field, I’m not sure that Francisco’s defense would make up for his weak bat). Based on the comparison I’ve provided, I think it’s safe to say that the Yankees have the better offensive team and a significant advantage at Yankee Stadium. It’ll be a much closer matchup, offensively, when the Yankees lose Matsui’s bat in Philadelphia.

Photos by Yahoo! Sports

Props to RAB for pointing out this interesting bit on Andy Pettitte in the LA Times (a Kevin Baxter piece).

Apparently, Pettitte wasn’t particularly pleased with the contract he inked over the offseason, a realization that isn’t surprising when you consider the way in which the negotiations played out and how long it took for him to sign. “I think everybody knows I wasn’t real happy with the contract,” said Pettitte to the press, after capturing his 16th postseason win. Pettitte had agreed to a $5.5 million deal (base salary) in January after making $16 million in 2008. “But,” he added, “I wanted to take it and come back here and have a chance to do this [win a World Series].”

To be fair, though, the Yankees provided Pettitte with an additional $6.5 million on top of his $5.5 million base, bringing his annual salary to a total of $12 million. Chump change this was not. The extra $6.5 million was predicated upon a package of incentive bonuses—both performance ($4.5 million) and roster ($2 million)—so, I guess what Pettitte is really upset about is having to prove himself with each pitch and with each inning, rather than receiving guaranteed money. There was little bargaining power afforded to him after the ‘08 season, however, as he routinely stated that he would either return to the Yankees or retire from the game altogether. That idea, while oozing of popular loyalty rhetoric, was not at all beneficial from a negotiating standpoint and the Yankees rightfully took advantage of that.

Of course, this year, Pettitte certainly wasn’t cheated or swindled in any way. According to FanGraphs, at 3.3 WAR, Pettitte has been worth $15 million this year. Therefore, his $12 million salary has been extremely fair, especially in a depressed market. He is due for a raise, though. I expect him to make at least $10 million in 2010—plus incentives—which Cashman will be happy to provide after a very strong season from the veteran left-hander.

Speaking of Pettitte’s strong season, although Dave Allen pokes a few holes into it over at FanGraphs—low BABIP, high BB/9, etc—he still believes that Pettitte will be worth about $10 million in value in 2010, even if he experiences some form of performative regression.

Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images