Joel? Is that you?

The good and bad Joel Sherman made another appearance this week, where he penned a thoughtful and well reasoned column (unlike this one) on competitive balance and the state of the game and then followed it up with some of the wildest, weirdest remedies imaginable. Then closes with something really insightful and worthwhile. Par for the course with Joel, he writes sports columns the way Mickelson plays golf. One minute you think he’s brilliant and the next thing you know he launches one that ends up on the LIE.

First I must address his original column on the topic, since his remedies ranged from good to unrealistic to bizarre. He started off by suggesting one of the Yanks or Red Sox change divisions, to separate the warring parties and lessen the need for both teams to overspend to keep up with the Jones’. Breaking up the Yank-Sox rivalry by sending one to the AL Central is ratings/attendance suicide, so neither team would welcome the move. The Red Sox have built their identity as a franchise as battling the ‘Evil Empire’, I doubt they can generate similar interest demonizing the Twins.

He goes on to suggest re-balancing the schedule, to help the O’s and Blue Jays compete. But that cuts both ways, the Yanks and Sox typically play each other to a standstill, so sending them to play weaker opposition will only serve to pad their respective records. Baseball is also very much a regional sport and always has been, and it goes beyond the Yanks-Sox. The Dodgers and Giants have a longstanding rivalry, as do the Mets and Phillies and the Cubs and St Louis. Players and media also like being home more and traveling less distance, so Joel doesn’t exactly have a big base off support for re-balancing the schedule.

I like his idea to add a Wild Card, but I would make it a play-in game. The post season is already too long and we don’t need another 3 game series. I don’t care about making things fair to the Wild Card, I want to put a premium on winning your division. Far too many Wild Card teams have coasted the last few weeks of the season, and it was supposed to add teams  in pennant races that would fight each other for that playoff spot down the stretch. Making your entire season come down to 1 game seems like a good disincentive against coasting down the stretch to me. The division would be worth fighting for, and more games in September would mean something.

On to his column. I’m going to break it up an weigh in frequently, since there’s a lot to comment on. Here goes:

But, to me, that is not a huge problem because the Yanks are simply keeping their own players and the sport – all sports actually – has greater appeal when players are associated with teams for a long time and/or their whole careers.

The bigger problem that the Yankees pose to competitors is when they decide, like they did in the offseason after the 2008 campaign, to simply spend whatever is necessary to solve problems. They spent nearly a half a billion dollars to land CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira that offseason. The current luxury tax and draft pick compensation was not enough to deter them.

I’d remind Joel that the Yanks lowered payroll in 08, since they had so much money coming off the books. But his overall point stands, the Yanks were able to spend to fix their problems, that is indisputable.

And I am wondering if there is much that can deter them. Besides any change to the system will take collective bargaining with the Players Association, which will fight hard to resist any on salaries by further punishing the Yankees to the point where they consider not signing too many free agents.

Perhaps the answer then lies not in punishing the Yankees as much as helping the teams that lose premium free agents in a greater way than currently exists. What needs to be fixed first is the outdated system for ranking players. We need to get to a more limited Type-A classification that represents just the best of the best. In other words, CC Sabathia is a Type-A, but Juan Cruz (who was ranked as a Type-A two years ago) is not.

Right now, a team that loses a Type-A free agent must offer arbitration and – if the player does not accept – the team receives a first-round draft pick and a sandwich pick. The signing team, if it has among the 15 best records, loses its first-round pick. I would consider rewarding a team that loses a Type-A free agent with a first-round draft pick for every year that the player has been with the team. So Cleveland would be able to weigh if trading Sabathia to the Brewers is more valuable than as many as six high draft picks if the Indians did the more fan-friendly thing and kept him until his free agency. Also, there would probably have to be safeguards put in not to reward, say, playoff teams with top-10 payrolls so that the Red Sox (Jason Bay) or Angels (John Lackey) would not get the same benefits of multiple high draft picks.

You essentially want to give smaller-market teams reasons to hold onto their players for as long as possible and replenish quickly when they lose them for financial reasons.

Wow, that’s batshit crazy. 6 first round picks to sign Carl Crawford? That would be such a deterrent that many teams simply wouldn’t bid, and salaries would plummet as a result. The MLBPA would go on strike for 5 years before they would ever agree to something like that. A hard salary cap would be less damaging to the free agent market.

2. Also be careful not to make the mistake of making all judgments about current payrolls. After all, salaries reflect where a player is in his career rather than true value.

For example, the Rays will have about a $70 million payroll in 2010. But imagine if all of their players were free agents, the actual value of those players would produce a payroll much closer to the Yankees’ $200 million than $70 million. Who would get the longer, richer contract if they were both free today: Evan Longoria or Alex Rodriguez? Sabathia still might be the most expensive pitcher off of either team, but the next four might be Matt Garza, James Shields, David Price and Wade Davis because of their talent and youth combination. Carl Crawford likely would be the most expensive outfielder on either team.

Here Joel redeems himself. Excellent, insightful point and 100% on the mark. Reading Joel Sherman is like digging for gold, you have to wade through a load of mud and muck to find the occasional gem.

The time has come for Robbie to get some pie

Robinson Cano has been something of a pet project for Yankee hitting coach Kevin Long in recent years. He visited Robbie last year during the off season in the Dominican to work on adjusting his stance, and again this year to help him make the necessary adjustments for what the Yanks just recently revealed their plan was, to bat Robbie 5th this year.

There has always been a question about which way Robbie’s career would go. Whether he would ever learn to draw more walks and become a lethal presence at the top of the order, or if he would fill out physically, develop more pop and use his outstanding ability to make contact to be a perfect 5 hole hitter. Clearly, the Yanks have decided the latter is where they think he’s best suited. The one thing holding him back has been his struggles with RISP. Unlike some Sabermatricians (who I respect) I’m not going to tell you this was some statistical anomaly based on a small sample size. I don’t believe that’s the case. I’ve watched him far too often uncharacteristically swing a pitches way out of the zone in those spots, and just look jumpy at the plate. It’s one thing to be aggressive, it’s another to swing at everything. Robbie has an (unfair) tag about him being lazy. But in clutch situations, I see the exact opposite. I see someone who’s trying TOO hard.

Yankee hitting Coach Kevin Long seems to agree. Check out what Long said about in a February Daily News interview:

As any Yankee fan knows, Cano is an aggressive free swinger, to the point where he drew only 30 walks last season. In clutch situations, pitchers take advantage of his aggressiveness and get him to chase pitches out of the strike zone.

“In those situations pitchers go to their out pitch against him,” said Long, “which means more movement, more down, and something that gets you off-balance. That’s where Robby has to be more patient, more selective, so that he brings the ball to the middle of the plate.

“We chart chase percentages for each of our hitters, and Robby chased 11% of pitches out of the strike zone, which was the highest on the team. Most guys are around 5 or 6%. And Robby’s chases go up with runners in scoring position.“

Bingo. Situations like his call for qualitative analysis as much as quantitative. Pitchers know his aggressive nature, and have been getting him out by throwing him garbage in clutch situations. His struggles with RISP have as much to do with how he’s being pitched as it does his approach in those spots, both of which conspire yield poor results. It’s not some statistical noise, it’s a function of his scouting report.

So how will batting him 5th help? Simple, hitting behind Alex means that opposing pitchers will often pitch around A-Rod to get to Cano. But that cuts both ways, with men on base pitchers will be forced to throw Robbie more strikes, to avoid walking the bases loaded or walking in a run. But they will also try to tease him with some garbage pitches to see if he’ll chase before he gets his pitch to hit. Look for Robbie to get deep into counts in those spots, forcing the pitcher to challenge him with fastballs in the zone. That’s when he’ll have the pitcher just where he wants him.

Ace from his days in the Mexican League

..to be the Yanks #5 starter. Brian Hoch of MLB.com discusses the Yanks hottest pitcher this spring, who has given up 1 run in 10 IP thus far. We’ve all assumed that the #5 will go to either Joba or Hughes, but the question must start to be asked, can he really pull this off? Yankee manager Joe Girardi weighed in on Ace yesterday-

“It’s impressive, because of the different things he’s been able to do with the baseball,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “He changes speeds, [has] late movement, pitches up and down. He changes eye level, in and out. He can do all of those things.

“What I’m most happy about is he’s ahead in the count most of the time. He’s putting hitters in a lot of 1-2 counts, 0-1 counts. That’s what you love to see. Guys love to play behind those types of guys, too.”

Aceves spent almost all of last season in a relief role, leading the Majors with 10 wins out of the bullpen while also turning in one save and a 3.54 ERA in 43 appearances.

While technically still a rookie last season, Aceves made four starts for the Yankees in 2008 and one more in ‘09, lending to the thought that he could do it if needed. Ideally, the Yankees would like to take a long reliever as well, and Aceves could also be useful there.

“He has four pitches, and he has the ability to get you out a bunch of different ways — whether it’s cutters, sinkers, curveball, changeup,” Girardi said. “In, out, he knows how to pitch, and he knows how to read swings.

“As I’ve said, we’re going to take what we feel are the 12 best arms when the season starts.”

With last year’s addition of Chad Gaudin, the Yanks now have two long men. On this team that’s really a waste, it would just mean one of them never pitches. Especially on a team where you 1-4 starters all figure to give you 200+ IP. If he was only going to be a long man, you might as well send him down to AAA to begin the season, since he’s one of the few #5 candidate with options left (Hughes can also be sent down up to late April) and you’d risk losing Gaudin or Mitre. It could also buy you some more time to swing a deal involving one of those two guys, and be in better bargaining position. Teams will up their offer should one of their starters go down early in the year.

Regular readers of this blog may remember Alfredo was my choice for #5 before these Spring Training performances. While I don’t put much stock in these exhibition games, I have felt all along Ace is the most polished and mature of the candidates for the #5 role. He has the repertoire of a solid starting pitcher, does all the little things you want a starter to do, and his makeup is such that I wouldn’t worry about giving him the ball in any situation you can envision a starter encountering. With all of the talk about the other candidates and the Yankees future, we should remember that Ace is only 27 years old. He could be an important part of that future as well.

Yankee Pitching Coach Dave Eiland weighed yesterday in on the competition for #5 starter’s role. George King of the NY Post has the story:

TAMPA — Nine games and two rainouts into the exhibition season, none of the five pitchers competing for the fifth spot in the Yankees’ rotation has copped a lead.

That means the headliners — Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain — are tied with long shots Sergio Mitre, Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves.

“As of right now, if we had to pick one we couldn’t really pick one,” pitching coach Dave Eiland said yesterday after a game against the Nationals in Viera, Fla., was rained out. “The sample is not big enough.”

I’ve said all along the sample will never be big enough. You’re talking about facing AA and AAA hitters for the first few weeks, and many of the MLB vets are either working on things or still getting into shape. That leaves 2 starts at the end of March for them to ‘make a decision’ on, since they said they want thing thing wrapped up a week before the end of Spring Training.  I’ll say it again, I think this entire ‘battle for #5′ is absurd. They know who these pitchers are, and a few weeks of Spring Training shouldn’t change that evaluation, even at the margins.

He adds:

Though Girardi and Eiland said the competition won’t be decided by numbers, Chamberlain clearly needs a solid outing — if only for his confidence — after posting a 27.00 ERA so far this spring.

Yet, Eiland is looking behind the statistics, focusing on what the club is asking pitchers to develop.

“If a pitcher is working on something and it hurts him, we have to understand that,” Eiland said.

(snip)

“It’s not just numbers, it’s the quality of each pitch, pitching ahead in the count, first pitch strikes and stuff,” Eiland said. “Are the outs hit hard? You can give up lasers that get caught and not give up any runs.”

That last sentence can’t be overemphasized, the whole reason why folks have developed stats like BABIP and FIP is to try to isolate the element of luck from a hitter or pitcher’s results. And I’m not saying you can’t get valuable info from the small sample of a few starts, advance scouting is all about that. But to draw a determination of who someone is as a pitcher, and what their role on a team should be based on 2 exhibition starts in March is utterly absurd.

I’ve mantained all along that this is simply a storyline for sportswriters and folks like us to kick around, since Spring Training gets pretty dull in a hurry. But don’t buy what they’re selling you folks, it just doesn’t add up. The Yanks are smart enough to know this.

George King of the NY Post has the story. It’s a short piece, but one with some juicy nuggets throughout. So I’ll post it in its entirety and break in with comments:

According to sources, the Yankees remain the favorites to sign Cuban shortstop Adeinis Hechavarria.

However, they have company in chasing the 21-year-old who defected from Cuba last year.

“There are five teams that are interested,’’ a source said.

I would expect his agent to say nothing else.

The Yankees have long been the favorites to land Hechavarria for two reasons: They have the money, and they have spent more time than any team scouting him. They have seen him in open workouts in the Dominican Republic and he has been to their complex in the DR several times to work out. The most recent trip was last week.

“He has a body like (Alfonso) Soriano,” a talent evaluator said of Hechavarria. “And he can hit.’’

That doesn’t tell us much in terms of skills, but if his swing resembles Soriano’s then that would be something to get excited about.  Soriano had very quick hands that generated plus power.

The Red Sox gave Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias $8 million, and it’s believed Hechavarria is looking for a similar figure.

“He is very proud to point out that he was the shortstop and Iglesias the second baseman when they played on the Cuban (junior) team,” a Dominican scout said.

That means that he was considered to be the better defensive player by his coaches. Reports are that Hechavarria is considered to have more power than Inglesias as well. Given the large bonus the Sox gave Inglesias and the reports that he could play with the big league club as early as this season, that tells me he could be close to MLB ready.

Hechavarria could be the Yankees’ second baseman. With Derek Jeter set to sign a long-term deal at the end of the season and shortstop the only place he can play, the Yankees could trade Robinson Cano after next season and make room for Hechavarria.

Next season is the final leg of Cano’s four-year, $30 million deal. There are options for 2012 ($14 million) and 2013 ($15 million).

Really? I hope this is just speculation on King’s part. Robbie Cano was an elite performer at his position both offensively and defensively last year. It could just be an early shot in the coming Cano contract negotiation, where adding Hechavarria gives the team added leverage. But Robbie’s going nowhere.

“Things are going very well,’’ Hechavarria’s agent, Bart Hernandez, said. “We should have news soon. The market has been strong. I can’t put a timetable on it, we are engaged with teams.’’

Stay tuned. . .

One of the Yankee execs most closely involved with player development was arrested and charged  with DWI Monday night. Here’s the story:

Longtime Yankees executive Mark Newman was arrested and charged with driving under the influence Monday night, according to the Hillsborough County Sherriff’s Office.

Newman, in his 11th season as the Yankees’ senior vice president of baseball operations, refused to take a blood-alcohol test, according to the arrest inquiry.

“We were informed that Mark Newman was arrested last night on suspicion of driving under the influence,” the Yankees said last night in a statement. “The New York Yankees do not condone this kind of behavior. We take this situation seriously and we are looking into the matter. We will have no further comment at this time.”

The report said Newman, 60, was released Tuesdayon $500 bail.

The arrest was first reported by The Associated Press.

According to the inquiry, Newman was pulled over at 10:56 p.m. near the corner of Hudson Lane and North Dale Mabry Highway, about five miles from his office at George M. Steinbrenner Field and just over a mile from his home.

What this will mean is unclear, but it’s worth noting that a more senior exec in Steve Swindal, who was George Steinbrenner’s son in law at the time (married to Jennifer Steinbrenner) and was widely thought of at the time as being George Steinbrenner’s successor, was given the boot after his DWI arrest in  February of 2007. Newman would fairly be described as being lower on the food chain. Kevin Towers, anyone?

UPDATE: The team released a statement in response to the incident last night, the NY Post has it:

“The New York Yankees do not condone this kind of behavior,” the statement said. “We take this situation seriously and we are looking into the matter. We will have no further comment at this time.”

GM Brian Cashman or Newman didn’t immediately return phone calls.

Pitching Coach Dave Eiland addressed the notion that Phil Hughes would be sent to AAA if he doesn’t land the #5 spot in a recent YES interview. Here’s the quote:

Joe Auriemma-”You came into spring training with a really solid staff, very deep. What can you can about having that good problem of having all of these good starting pitchers being able to compete for that 5th spot and ultimately possibly moving them into a bullpen strengthening role “

Dave Eiland-”Well, yeah, you just said it. It’s a tough decision, but a good one to have. The 4 guys that don’t make it, most of them .  . ALL of them will go down to the bullpen. That will make our bullpen that much better, and the guy that wins the 5th spot deserves it. It’s really a no lose situation for our team and organization. “

He also took exception when a question was posed that made the 5th starter competition sound like a 2 horse race between Hughes and Joba, saying “those other 3 guys are more than ‘in the mix’ ” as the interviewer stated and “it’s not a 2 horse race”.

This should put to rest the notion that Phil Hughes would be sent to AAA. Hughes won’t go to AAA for the same reason he and Joba were called up in the first place. You want your best arms on your MLB club. I also don’t get why the same people who want Hughes sent to Scranton don’t recommend it for Joba. Why not? Both have 3 years of MLB service time, Joba spent very little time in the minors, whereas Hughes spent parts of 4 years there. I agree with Mike Axisa on this, I don’t think it makes any sense for either of them, and have yet to see anyone in the Yankee organization who thinks otherwise.

photo courtesy of the NY Daily News

Tyler Kepner of the New York Times recently caught up with former Yankee farmhand Ian Kennedy at the Diamondbacks spring training facility in Tuscon, AZ. They discussed his time with the Yanks, what went wrong, and his place on his new team. He writes:

TUCSON – Ian Kennedy’s last start in the major leagues was on Aug. 8, 2008. It was a night that colored many fans’ perception of him. He gave up five runs in two innings of a 10-5 loss in Anaheim, Calif., and when he met with reporters afterward, he insisted he had made good pitches and was not upset.

It was the wrong thing to say, causing a backlash against Kennedy, and the Yankees now use it in the media-training video they show players in spring training. It is an example of what not to do.

Kennedy talked about that night on Sunday, after his two-inning start for the Arizona Diamondbacks at Tucson Electric Park. Without being asked, Kennedy brought up the game in talking about that lost season, when he could not hold his spot in the Yankees’ rotation.

Early in the season, Kennedy explained, he had tried to do too much, and dwelled too long on bad outings, letting one bleed into the next. Before the Angels game, he had pitched very well in Class AAA. He wanted to forget the bad outing as soon as possible, and as he stewed in the clubhouse for hours, he vowed to do that.

Many fans didn’t understand at the time that part of being a good pitcher is maintaining your confidence, even after a bad outing. A bad performance doesn’t mean you’re a bad pitcher, it just means you had a bad day. Beating yourself up accomplishes nothing, and can even lead to trying too hard, which makes things worse. But the way he conveyed it, he came across as delusional about his abilities and as if he didn’t care, which clearly wasn’t the case. For PR purposes, you can’t expect the average fan to understand the inner workings of being a MLB starter, so the easiest thing to do is say “I stunk” and move on.

Kepner goes on to note that IPK is the favorite to land the 4th starter’s role for the D-Backs and has added a 2-seamer to his repertiore. He also will soon get a 2009 World Series ring for having pitched a game in September. Tyler ends with this quote from Ian-

“This is a good opportunity at a good time in my career,” Kennedy said. “It’s bittersweet, because I loved the Yankees. It was great there. But it’s really good being here, too.”

I wish Ian all the best. I will be following his starts as part of a new feature I plan on running this season called ‘Keeping up with the Ex’s’ where you’ll get regular updates on the ex-Yanks who were either traded or left as free agents this off season. IPK, Austin Jackson, Melky, Damon and Matsui will all be part of it.

Friend of TYU Joe Pawlikowski (of RAB and Fangraphs) has a new piece up where he looks at Jorge Posada in historical context, comparing him to other Catchers at age 38. Unfortunately for Yankee fans, the results aren’t pretty. He writes:

History provides us with the beginnings of an answer. While nine players caught more than 100 games at age 37, only five did so at age 38* — and only three have done it since 1940. Only one, Benito Santiago in 2003, slugged over .400. Fred Jacklitsch holds the highest OBP in the group, .376, but he did it in 1914. Among the post-1940 players, Santiago’s .329 OBP leads the way. The catchers that did make it to age 38, it appears, were known more for their defensive skills than offensive prowess.

* To be fair, two other age-37 catchers also played that season in 2009, Jason Varitek and Ivan Rodriguez.

On the age-37 list, the only other catcher to post an OPS of .800 or above was Carlton Fisk, who posted a .348 wOBA in 1985. In 1986 he played in 125 games, but started only 65 behind the plate. But even if he had caught 100 games in 1986, his numbers would rank him as the worst among his peers. His OPS sat at a lowly .600 that season, resulting in a -1.5 WAR. Age 38 does not appear to be a catcher-friendly one.

He goes on to add that even if he continues to produce at the plate, his recent injury history (shoulder/hamstring) make you wonder if he’ll be able to get on the field in order to produce. Girardi has said he only plans on starting Jorge at Catcher between 100-120 games, which represents a concession to age by the Yanks. Girardi further adds that he doesn’t plan on DHing Jorge on his off days, preferring to rest him over giving him ABs.

I have my own doubts about his bat. His BB rate and SO rates both went in the wrong direction last year, which is typical of a player whose bat is slowing down. Further, in 2009 his pitch type value on fastballs went down while he destroyed change ups. Posada has destroyed fastballs for most of his career, but even in his down years he never started looking for the change. All of that leads me to believe he’s poised for a drop off, and nobody knows just how steep it will be. Pitchers aren’t stupid, they will notice these trends and start challenging him more. Given his position and all the wear and tear that comes with it, fans would be wise to tread carefully with their expectations for Jorge this year.

Let me clear something up right off the bat. I have been squarely in the ‘Joba starts’ camp from day 1. I believe he has the body type, repertoire, and yes, makeup to be an outstanding starting pitcher. This choice doesn’t alter that view one bit, I still see both Joba and Hughes as starters long term. Some fans worry about him (and Hughes) not getting enough innings if they don’t start this year. I can understand worrying about exceeding innings at a young age, but not going below them. The innings limits many teams follow are up to the age 25 season. Both pitchers will be 25 in 2011, and therefore can be full fledged starters next year without any added health related concerns. I’m not even sure there are any concerns now, the Joba Rules have already been lifted and (as pitching coach Dave Eiland has noted) Phil Hughes has pitched full seasons in the minors, so his limits are minimal. But what I don’t buy into is the notion that if he (or Phil Hughes) doesn’t start this year, it will be bad for his development and/or preclude him from starting down the road. Working out of the bullpen will give both pitchers valuable experience facing MLB hitters, working out of jams and much-needed confidence, especially in Hughes’ case. From a development standpoint, they have as much (if not more) to learn by facing tough MLB hitters as they do by blowing away minor leaguers. Even with Ace as the #5, I still see both of them as starters for the 2011 season, taking 2 of the spots of Vasquez, Aceves, or Pettitte. I simply believe that on this team, this year, Ace as the #5 is the best use of your roster.

Check out the scouting reports of all 5 candidates (h/t NYBD):

Alfredo Aceves:

PITCHES: Throws fastball 90-92mph (47% of all pitches), cutter 87-90 (14%), curveball 77-82 (20%), changeup 80-85 (19%). FB is most effective, cutter least effective. 1,232 total pitches (62% in the strike zone). Threw 199 of 318 first pitches for strikes (63%).

Strengths: Great command of CB. Great command of CH. Great command of cutter. Great overall dominance with 4.31 K/BB. Induces pop-ups often. Rarely walks batters – 0.19 BB/IP (0.39 is avg).

Joba Chamberlain

PITCHES: Throws fastball 91-94mph (64% of all pitches), slider 83-87 (19%), curveball 76-82 (12%), changeup 81-84 (5%). FB is most effective, changeup least effective. 2,619 total pitches (55% in the strike zone). Threw 370 of 662 first pitches for strikes (56%).

STRENGTHS: Plus command of slider.

WEAKNESSES: One of the walk leaders with 76.

HABITS: 3-0 ALWAYS throws FB to lefties 100% (86% is avg). 3-2 throws slider to righties 58% (16% is avg). 3-2 throws slider to lefties 50% (14% is avg). Throws sliders 60% more frequently from the stretch (24% vs 15% of all pitches).

Chad Gaudin

PITCHES: Throws fastball 89-92mph (58% of all pitches), slider 77-82 (30%), changeup 83-87 (9%), curveball 76-82 (2%). Slider is most effective, changeup is least effective. 5,040 total pitches (59% in the strike zone). Threw 108 of 186 first pitches for strikes (58%). Threw 265 of 453 first pitches for strikes (58%).

STRENGTHS: Deceptive curveball causes 29% of swings to miss. Plus command of changeup.

WEAKNESSES: Poor command of CB. Changeup velocity is not deceptively slower than FB – only 4.2 mph.

HABITS: 3-0 ALWAYS throws FB to righties 100% (86% is avg). Locates CB 3″ down from the stretch. Lean body. Likes to make pickoff attempts. Gets little spin on FB (21% below MLB avg.) His slider is one of the slowest at 79.7 and “slurvy”. Gets good spin on slider (67% above MLB avg.)

Phil Hughes

PITCHES: Throws fastball 92-95mph (64% of all pitches), cutter 87-91 (8%), curveball 75-79 (21%), slider 87-89 (6%), changeup 82-86 (1%). Curveball is most effective, fastball is least effective. 1,456 total pitches (60% in the strike zone). Threw 208 of 338 first pitches for strikes (62%).

NOTES: Injury a concern – was on the DL 135 days over the past 3 seasons. Likes to make pickoff attempts.

STRENGTHS: Plus command of slider. Well above avg overall dominance with 3.42 K/BB. Entered 13 games with runners on base and allowed 67% fewer to score than the average reliever in the same situations. Strikes out batters often – 1.11 K/IP (0.77 is avg). Consistently came in to 33 “late and close” games and pitched effectively.

HABITS: 88% of swings make contact off his slider. Throws FB outside to righties. His FB is on the faster side at 93.5. Deceptive FB causes 15% of swings to miss. Gets good spin on CB (33% above MLB avg.). He throws a hard SL that averages 87.8.

Sergio Mitre

PITCHES: Throws fastball 90-92mph (31% of all pitches), sinker 89-92 (38%), changeup 82-85 (17%), curveball 78-80 (9%), slider 77-80 (6%). 793 total pitches (61% in the strike zone). Threw 131 of 210 first pitches for strikes (62%).

NOTES: Injury a concern – was on the DL 90 days over the past 3 seasons.

STRENGTHS: Plus command of slider. Changeup has a big tailing action.

WEAKNESSES: Not a deceptive slider: 94% of swings make contact. Has a high ERA of 6.79. Rarely induces pop-ups.

HABITS: 1-2 throws CH to lefties 50% (14% is avg). 2-0 does not throw FB to righties often – 30% (72% is avg). 2-0 does not throw FB to lefties often – 13% (74% is avg). 2-2 throws CH to lefties 45% (15% is avg). Infrequently throws inside twice in a row 21% of the time (29% is avg). Slider release point comes towards 1B 1.7″ from the stretch. Throws sinkers 22% more frequently from the stretch (42% vs 34% of all pitches). FB has a big tailing and sinking action. Has 11-5 CB break angle (-17 deg). Throws slider high to lefties. His “slurvy” slider is one of the slowest at 78.5.

What jumps out at me is that Ace is the clearly the most mature and polished of the above candidates. Joba and Hughes may have far more upside, but have yet to reach it as starting pitchers on the big league level. Ace is the safe choice, the one who you know will give you innings and consistency, which allows you to use your relievers in a much more orderly fashion. Bullpens tend to get into trouble when they get overworked, and managers are forced to push relievers into situations that they aren’t suited for. We know AJ Burnett will have the occasional clunker, and we’ve seen that Joba the starter can often fall into the same category. While I’m sure Girardi will split them up, I value the reliability I think Ace will give me. The innings he can give helps you optimize the rest of your resources.

On to the roster and bullpen alignment. You have Chad Gaudin to take Ace’s place as the long man and spot starter. Both of them being in the bullpen is a complete waste, two long men just means one of them never pitches, especially on a team loaded with 200+IP guys. In case of injury to one of your starters, Gaudin simply moves into the rotation and you can call up an innings eater like Jon Albaladejo from AAA to do mop-up work. In case of injury/ineffectiveness of one of your relievers, you can call on a high-upside arm such as Mark Melancon, which is attractive both now and for future considerations. That means you can smooth MM’s transition to the bigs in low leverage situations, which is preferable to throwing him into the fire right away. Melancon’s uncharacteristic lack of control last year at the MLB level leads me to believe that he was a bit overwhelmed as a rookie.

Finally, on to performance. Aceves has a full, if unspectacular repertoire. He’s well suited to start, and give different looks to hitters facing them multiple times. His stuff plays the same in a relief role as it does out of the bullpen, it’s not like he gains some extra MPH on the fastball the way power pitchers like Hughes and Joba do.  On the other hand, both Hughes and Joba have been ungodly as relievers, yet mundane as starting pitchers. Both gain velocity in the bullpen, both are able to go with their 2 best pitches and not risk getting beat on a lesser pitch. Both have put up numbers in the bullpen that are unrealistic to expect them to repeat in the rotation. I’d rather get outstanding performances from both of those two than get more innings and less results from one, while Aceves sits in the bullpen.

If the Yanks serious about this “open competition” stuff (which strikes me as silly since were talking about Spring Training) then Ace would be my choice. Not based on how he performs this spring, but on maximizing the assets I have to work with. That would leave the Yanks with Joba AND Hughes in the pen, one of the scariest bullpens ever assembled. You would have not one, not two, but three ‘relief aces’ who can come in at almost any time of the game to put out a fire against the heart of an order.  That means at least 2 of the 3 are available to you every day, and you are still well covered in case of injury. Both pitchers will still be eligible, without restrictions, to be starters next season. Or possibly even this season in case of a major injury. I just want reliable innings out of my #5, and the prospect of having a bullpen for the ages, even for just one season, is the best use of your resources in 2010.