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Eric Schultz

Comparing Top Prospect Lists

Posted by Eric Schultz at 5:59 pm 2 Responses »
Feb 112011

This is the exciting time of year when many respected prospect raters (and plenty of intelligent amateurs) release their preseason top 100 lists.  The Yankee farm system had a strong year that was reflected in the high rankings of many Yankee prospects on these various lists, and an organizational ranking around #5, depending who you ask (Jim Callis had them at #5 Keith Law was a little lower on them, and Frankie Piliere had them at #4).  I just wanted to take a moment to compare the placement of the Yankee farmhands on the top 100 lists from various sources, to see which prospects have more of a consensus, and which ones remain controversial.  The lists I am going to use are from Keith Law (from ESPN), John Manuel (Baseball America, only a top 50 list), Frankie Piliere  (a former scout, writes for AOL fanhouse), John Sickels (doesn’t have a full ranking, but uses letter grades and Project Prospect.  Let’s take a look at what these various sources have to say about the top Yankee prospects (apologies that my table looks like crap).

Keith Law John Manuel* Frankie Piliere Project Prospect John Sickels Average Standard Deviation
Jesus Montero 4 3 4 3 A 3.5 0.6
Manny Banuelos 12 20 13 34 B 19.75 10.1
Gary Sanchez 68 17 34 74 B+ 48.25 27.3
Dellin Betances 73 18 44 NR B+ 45 27.5
Andrew Brackman 88 NR 60 NR B- 74 N/A
Austin Romine NR NR NR 86 B- N/A N/A
David Adams NR NR NR 97 C+ N/A N/A

*Only a top 50 list

What can we learn from looking at these rankings?  A few things are pretty evident right away.  The consensus on Montero is pretty solid, with everyone having him in the 4-5 range (and he would likely rank similarly from Sickels, though there are 7 A-rated hitting prospects).

For Banuelos, too, the consensus is pretty strong.  Sickels and Project Prospect are the outliers here.  John has explained his concern about Banuelos having to do with durability questions, presumably due to his size.  To me, that’s a pretty ridiculous argument, as Manny has never had any arm problems, and has smooth mechanics.  As for Project Prospect, they still like the guy a lot, and I would almost have expected him to be a little higher, as they tend to have a very floor-heavy list (and I think Manny, size withstanding, is considered pretty safe as pitching prospects go).

Sanchez has wide variation, and this is understandable for a 17 year-old catcher in Rookie ball.  Some sources, such as Manuel and Piliere in particular, appear enamored with his ceiling and less concerned about his distance from the majors.  It’s a matter of philosophy with a guy like Sanchez, though it is worthy of note that Manuel and Piliere in  are often higher on Yankee prospects than most.  These guys will look smart if Sanchez pulls a Montero and continues to tear up full season ball, but they are also taking a risk on a guy who played most of the season in rookie ball at 17.  Project Prospect has him the lowest at 74, which I still think is a respectable rating for a guy with as little experience as Sanchez.

Betances too is exceptionally polarizing, ranked as high as 17 on Manuel’s list, and did not make Project Prospect’s top 100 list at all.  This too is a reflection of the sizable distance between Betances’ ceiling and floor, through his risk comes more from his injury history than a lack of experience.

Andrew Brackman made Klaw’s and Frankie’s list (and I would guess he would have been on a John Manuel top 100 list too), and the rating of 60 from Frankie is explained by the glowing scouting report that he wrote this summer.

Romine and Adams are both mentioned on Project Prospect’s list, and they share the common theme of being pretty close to major league ready with the bat, and good bets to stay at an up-the-middle defensive position.  It is understandable that Adams missed the other lists due to injury and Romine missed due to a mediocre 2nd half.

With rankings like these, it’s important not to sweat the small stuff, but overall, despite their variations, these lists paint a rosy picture of the Yankee farm, which bodes well for the organization’s future without the “Core Four.”

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Pettitte the Prospect

Posted by Eric Schultz at 8:23 pm 11 Responses »
Feb 042011

The recently-announced retirement of Andy Pettitte is the hot story around the media and the blogosphere, and deservedly so.  His retirement has significant implications for the playoff hopes of the current squad, and also has elicited some controversy as to whether he is Hall of Fame worthy (will probably be discussed ad nauseum until there is more real news to discuss).  Andy Pettitte has long been one of my favorite Yankees (#1 since the retirement of Paul O’Neill), and there have been/will be many emotional farewell, “thanks for the memories” posts around the blogosphere, to thank the big lefty for his 13 years of service in pinstripes.  This post, however, will cover none of the above.

Instead, inspired by John Sickels’ excellent post profiling Andy Pettitte’s career (from the minors on), I just wanted to take some time to reflect on Pettitte’s path to the majors.   I recommend reading John’s post to get the more thorough breakdown, but I’ll just give my thoughts here.

Petttitte was a 22nd round pick in 1990, and instead of signing out of high school, Andy attended San Jacinto Junior College for a year.  Interestingly, Pettitte’s coach at San Jacinto was Wayne Graham, who went on to have a highly successful career coaching at Rice University, producing many first-round pitchers including David Aardsma, Phil Humber, Jeff Niemann, Wade Townsend, and Joe Savery.  Graham has notorious for working his pitchers very hard, which may have contributed to the significant injury histories of these and several other Rice pitchers.  Another fun fact that I learned is that while at San Jacinto, Graham coached a young Roger Clemens (before he transferred to Texas).

He eventually signed with the Yankees out of juco for an $80,000 bonus, a decent chunk of cash for 1990, but hardly the type of money you would expect for a guy who went on to have Pettitte’s long and distinguished career.  This was back in the days of draft and follow, when the team retained a player’s rights for a year if he went to junior college, and could sign him if they liked what they saw.  According to this old story in the Daily News, Pettitte was offered a chance to transfer to the University of Texas, a perennial baseball powerhouse, but chose the Yanks instead.   Given the track that Pettitte ended up following, it’s likely that Andy would have had a very successful college career as a Longhorn, and would’ve been a high pick in the 1994 draft (when he would have first been eligible).  The 1st round of the ’94 draft ended up being a mediocre round for pitching (Jaret Wright was probably the best pitcher from 1994′s first round).

Andy’s minor league career was very impressive, but due primarily to his low draft position (I would hypothesize), he never made a top 100 list until 1995 (when he was #49 on the BA list).  His minor league stats are below.

Year Age Lev W L ERA IP H ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
1991 19 Rk-A- 6 3 1.55 69.2 49 12 1 24 83 1.048 6.3 0.1 3.1 10.7 3.46
1991 19 Rk 4 1 0.98 36.2 16 4 0 8 51 0.655 3.9 0.0 2.0 12.5 6.38
1991 19 A- 2 2 2.18 33.0 33 8 1 16 32 1.485 9.0 0.3 4.4 8.7 2.00
1992 20 A 10 4 2.20 168.0 141 41 4 55 130 1.167 7.6 0.2 2.9 7.0 2.36
1993 21 A+-AA 12 9 3.06 164.2 151 56 7 49 135 1.215 8.3 0.4 2.7 7.4 2.76
1993 21 A+ 11 9 3.04 159.2 146 54 7 47 129 1.209 8.2 0.4 2.6 7.3 2.74
1993 21 AA 1 0 3.60 5.0 5 2 0 2 6 1.400 9.0 0.0 3.6 10.8 3.00
1994 22 AAA-AA 14 4 2.86 169.2 161 54 8 39 111 1.179 8.5 0.4 2.1 5.9 2.85
1994 22 AA 7 2 2.71 73.0 60 22 5 18 50 1.068 7.4 0.6 2.2 6.2 2.78
1994 22 AAA 7 2 2.98 96.2 101 32 3 21 61 1.262 9.4 0.3 2.0 5.7 2.90
1995 23 AAA 0 0 0.00 11.2 7 0 0 0 8 0.600 5.4 0.0 0.0 6.2
8 Seasons 43 20 2.46 608.0 522 166 21 171 493 1.140 7.7 0.3 2.5 7.3 2.88
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/4/2011.

Looking at this list, the numbers are impressive, but nothing earth-shattering.  The career ERA of 2.46, while advancing fairly quickly through the minors, is pretty strong.  Despite getting a lateish start to his minor league career compared to a high school pitcher, Andy pretty much moved up a level every year, and was never overmatched.  He reached full-season ball at age 19 (after a strong rookie ball debut), and made it to AA at 21.  He spent the next 2 seasons (1994 and 1995) between AA and AAA, before making his debut with the big club in 1995.  In his minor league career,  Pettitte demonstrated very good control (career 2.5 bb/9) and a respectable but not overwhelming strikeout rate (7.3 k/9), which would likely keep him from being a top prospect in this day and age.  I have not been able to find anything in the way of old scouting reports, but according to Sickels  Andy never particularly impressed scouts with either his fastball velocity or his secondary offerings, and was viewed primarily as a control pitcher coming up.  His minor league strikeout and walk rates were very similar to the numbers he posted in the bigs.

Was Pettitte misranked as a prospect?  That’s hard to say.  In retrospect, given the great career he had, it’s hard to believe that he didn’t make the BA top 100 until 1995, and even then was ranked behind such luminaries as Brian Hunter (OF Astros), Doug Million (LHP Rockies), Scott Ruffcorn (RHP White Sox) and Josh Booty (3b Marlins).  It must have been Jim Callis’ anti-Yankee bias at work (sarcasm, which I realize doesn’t translate well on the internet).  Believe it or not, all those guys I mentioned were in the top 25, and none of them had significant major league careers.  To be fair to BA, prospecting was a different game back then, and I think they have a lot more information at their disposal presently than they did in the early 90′s.

Where would 1995 Pettitte fit in on today’s top prospects list?  Looking at Keith Law’s top 100 list, Andy profiles similarly to #11 Zach Britton (LHP Orioles) on a statistical basis (though Britton throws a little harder and gets more grounders).  Law would probably have Pettitte lower than Britton based on scouting reports.  I would guess that Pettitte would have fit in around #60, near two lefthanded prospects (Cleveland’s Drew Pomeranz and Atlanta’s Mike Minor) who were both 1st-round picks out of college, but are not considered to have front of the rotation stuff.  In the current Yankee prospect list, he would probably be around #4 or 5, behind Montero, Banuelos, and Betances (and possibly Gary Sanchez, depending on how bullish you are willing to be on a teenager), and ahead of Brackman, Romine, Noesi, etc.

What lessons can be learned about Pettitte as a prospect?  If anything, it illustrates the crapshoot nature of predicting the development of young prospects, and at times the absurdity of the ranking process.  Pettitte was your classic high floor, low ceiling prospect, but when he hit  (and exceeded) his “ceiling”, he was tremendously valuable.  Maybe the prospect ranking industry does get too wrapped up in ceilings, pipe dreams, scouting reports, and strikeouts, and we should give more credit to guys who are able to consistently retire hitters across all levels of the minors, while maintaining good control and limiting homers.  Maybe we should pay more attention to guys like Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, David Phelps, who have been successful throughout their careers, and have great “pitchability”, and be more bearish on guys like Andrew Brackman, who despite his tantalizing potential, has a lot of work to do to even make the majors.  Sure, it’s more likely that Pettitte was an anomaly, and for every Pettitte there are dozens of “pitchability” prospects who never can handle the transition to the majors.

The attributes that made Andy Pettitte a great pitcher could not have been predicted from his minor league numbers.  He showed great aptitude for pitching in developing a nasty cutter at a young age, and reducing his use of the cutter and developing a dangerous curveball at an older age to prevent further injuries.  His tireless work ethic likely contributed to his impressive durability, which was one of his greatest assets throughout his career.  What Pettitte had were certain intangible qualities (not grit and hustle, ok) that do not show up in scouting reports, radar guns, or stat sheets, and these intangibles helped transform him from middling prospect to borderline Hall of Famer.  Trying to predict the next Pettitte would likely be an exercise in futility, but I have my hopes that Manny Banuelos is ready to take up the mantle of the next great Yankee lefty.  If the photo below is any guide, he already has a pretty decent stare.

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What's Wrong with Derek Jeter's Swing?

Posted by Eric Schultz at 11:00 am 4 Responses »
Jan 292011

In 2010, by all measures, Derek Jeter had what was probably the worst season of his career.  His .270 batting average, .340 OBP, and .370 slugging percentage all represented career lows.  He also hit ground balls at an incredibly high rate, nearly two thirds of the time, resulting in a BABIP that was almost 50 points below his career rate.  Jeter has been such a consistent and successful player throughout his career that after posting a .390 WOBA in 2009 at age 35, many people believed that like his teammate Mariano Rivera, the aging curve was merely a suggestion.  These expectations were brought back to reality by Jeter’s mediocre 2010 at age 36, prompting questions of whether the Captain’s best days are behind him, and he will finally enter a steady decline phase.

Such a terrible (by his lofty standards) season at age 36 certainly fits into the narrative of Jeter (and the Yankee roster as a whole) aging and becoming ineffective.  To determine if 2010 was a fluke or a sign of likely decline, it would make sense to take a look at Derek’s swing to see what has changed.  Luckily, Fanhouse’s Frankie Piliere has done just that, breaking down the changes in the famous Jeterian swing.

You should read the entire piece to get the full picture, but I will relay some of Frankie’s most important observations.  Piliere notices that Derek is “starting the bat earlier to to compensate for a quickness that just may not be quite what it used to be.”  This is a common phenomenon for older players who try to  counteract their decreased bat speed.  With this earlier start to the swing, Piliere observed that Jeter’s overall swing mechanics have changed, leading his swing to become more “upper-body dominant”, which has decreased his bat speed and made it more difficult for him to get inside the ball.

The question that Piliere’s analysis proposes but does not fully answer is whether Jeter’s changed swing can be directly attributed to aging (and loss of natural bat speed), or if he suffered from a correctable mechanical flaw.  Kevin Long, the Yankee hitting coach, seems to think that the latter is the case.  While speaking with Ben Shpigel of the New York Times, Long described his proposed solution to Jeter’s problems.  Long is trying to get Jeter to remove his natural stride in an attempt to simplify the swing, which could allow him to improve his bat speed and make more hard contact.  He compares Jeter’s situation to that of Paul Molitor, who made similar adjustments to his swing after a subpar .270 batting average at age 38 (the same average as Jeter posted in 2010).  The following season, the 39 year-old Molitor batted a lofty .341.

It would be foolishly optimistic to expect Jeter to have a Molitor-esque bounceback season, but there is hope that 2011 could be better for the Yankee captain.  If Jeter’s struggles in 2010 can be linked to a mechanical flaw, then correcting that flaw could potentially allow him to return to his familiar success.  If his bat speed improves, then his plate discipline (significantly diminished in 2010) could return as well, once again making him a valuable leadoff hitter.  However, if the attempted fix is unsuccessful, then the time may come for Yankee fans to accept the hard truth, and that Jeter’s slowed bat will prevent him from ever reaching his previous level of success.    Here’s hoping that Kevin Long can work his magic on Derek’s swing, and another struggling Yankee batter can be #cured.

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A look at the Yankees' projected 25-man roster

Posted by Eric Schultz at 5:00 pm 14 Responses »
Jan 212011

With the signing of Andruw Jones as a dangerous bench bat/4th outfielder, I thought it wouldn’t be a bad idea to take a look at the possible composition of the Yankees’ likely 25-man roster, if the season were to begin today.    Most of the spots are set at this point, but there are a few that may still be up for grabs.  Let’s take a look first at the players who either definitely have spots on the team, or are most likely to.

Postion Players

Definite: Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Russell Martin, Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner, Andruw Jones.  (10)

Likely:  Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena (2)

Starting Pitchers

Definite:  CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Phil Hughes (3)

Likely:  Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre (2)

Relief Pitchers

Definite:  Mariano Rivera, Rafael Soriano, Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Pedro Feliciano, Boone Logan (6)

This yields a total of 23 likely occupied spots on the 25-man.  One of the two remaining spots will likely go to a position player, and the other to a bullpen arm/long reliever.  Who are the best candidates for these spots?  Let’s take a look at the remaining contenders, as well as their pros and cons, in order of likelihood of making the team.

Bench players

Eduardo Nunez:  He’s a better hitter than Pena, but less valuable in the field.  Nunez and Pena’s ability to play all the infield positions is pretty useful on the bench, but I can’t imagine them wanting 2 utilitymen with weak bats on the bench.  For a utility player, I would take Pena’s glove over Nunez’s bat.

Brandon Laird:  Laird could be a useful backup at 1st base or 3rd base (I’d rather have him in the lineup than Penez), and is more dangerous with the stick than Nunez or Pena.  Probably a long shot because he only has 31 games of AAA experience, but I like that his skillset is not really redundant with Pena’s as Nunez’s is.

Jesus Montero:  We’ve heard about everything this kid does well with the bat, and everything that he does poorly behind the dish.  I can’t see him being called up to sit on the bench, but for hypothetical roster construction, I would take him over Cervelli on the team anyday.  I imagine he’ll get a chance to get some more AAA seasoning while the Yankees see what they have in Russell Martin.  However, if he continues to tear the cover off the ball in AAA, he may force his way up soon enough.

Greg Golson:  He became a favorite of mine last year after his ridiculous throw from rightfield to nail Carl Crawford, and if the Yankees decide to carry a 5th outfielder/pinch runner, Golson could be the leading candidate.  However, with the Jones signing, I don’t see Golson being utilized enough to be worth the roster spot.  His defense gives him an edge over Colin Curtis, even though Curtis’s bat may be more useful.

Bullpen

Romulo Sanchez:  Of the other pitchers on the 40-man, Sanchez has the most major league experience.  Is he better than Phelps/Noesi/Brackman?  In the long-term, no way, but he could be useful in the short term to soak up some innings (and with his fastball averaging 95 last season, he can throw some gas).

After Sanchez, there are a whole bunch of guys without much big league experience who could take the long man spot.  Dellin Betances, Andrew Brackman, David Phelps and Hector Noesi likely will be kept as starters in the minors, but someone like Ryan Pope could earn the long man spot with a strong spring.  One sleeper to make the team could be Brian Schlitter, who was claimed off of waivers from the Cubs (despite a mediocre debut this season, so maybe Larry Rothschild saw something he liked).  Mark Prior is another sleeper, and likely more of a feel-good story at this point, but I’ll be pulling for him.

Conclusions

The Yankees do have some big choices to make with their remaining roster spots.  Of highest importance is determining how to handle Jesus Montero, and I imagine (and hope) that they will send him to AAA to play full-time if they decide he’s not ready to play every day in the bigs.  Pitching depth looks weak, but the addition of a legitimate back-end starter (Justin Duchscherer?) would push Sergio Mitre or Ivan Nova to the long man role, which would make things look less horrible.  There are some intriguing options for additional bench bats, depending on the direction the Yankees want to go with the roster (Flexibility?  Nunez.  Power?  Laird.  Speed and defense?  Golson).  This is certainly not an incredibly exciting subject, but barring a major pitching acquisition, these decisions will occupy a lot of my attention.

One last Soriano post

Posted by Eric Schultz at 1:00 pm 2 Responses »
Jan 152011

I realize there have been a ton of posts on the Rafael Soriano signing, but I just wanted to add some additional thoughts to the mix that may not have been covered by the other posts (and that’s pretty much all that’s going on right now).

1.  I don’t see any way that Soriano opts out after 2011, even if he has a strong season.  A look at the list of potential free agents in 2012 on Cot’s reveals that next year’s free agent market will likely have a glut of relief pitchers.  Among the big names eligible for free agency in 2012 are: Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez, Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge, and Jose Valverde.  In that market (even if a few of those guys sign extensions or accept arbitration), the huge number of available arms will likely limit competition and probably suppress salaries.  With 11+million coming to him in 2012, plus the role of setting up for Mariano Rivera in the last year of his contract, I imagine Soriano will stick around to see if Rivera retires.  If he does, Soriano will likely step in for Rivera as Yankee closer in the last year of his contract, and be in line for a big payday (or he could opt out and force the Yankees to resign him to a big multi-year contract in a weaker relief market in 2012).

2.  Although I was upset to lose a 1st-round pick in a strong draft for a relief pitcher, the lack of a 1st-rounder certainly does not preclude the Yankees from drafting a number of impact players (as Steve alluded to yesterday).  Early picks matter more to teams that adhere to slot regulations, whereas teams such as the Yankees can sign high-round talents in later rounds (albeit, a lot of these players could have flaws or inflated bonus demands, but the Yankees would never have a shot at a flawless draft prospect anyway).  As long as they are willing to be aggressive in drafting talented players who slip due to high bonus demands (and I imagine there will be a lot of those in this loaded draft), they can still have a strong draft.  It’s a little too early to determine who is going to go where in the draft, but I imagine that more impact players will enter the draft this year with the possibility of hard draft slotting in the next collective bargaining agreement.  This increases the probability of a legitimate 1st-round talent falling (Bubba Starling?  Sonny Gray?).

3.  I’m thinking that the Soriano signing may be a sign that Andy Pettitte will not be back next season.  Obviously nothing official has been announced, but I wonder if bolstering the bullpen became an increased priority with the knowledge that Pettitte will not be back in pinstripes, and the rotation is likely to be weak in the back end.  I hope that the Soriano move gives the Yankees reason to consider Joba in the rotation again.  Considering that the current alternative is Sergio Mitre or Ivan Nova, it’s pretty obvious that Joba’s ceiling as a starter is much higher (at least than Mitre, even if you’re bearish on Joba as a starter).

4.  This is pretty obvious, but it bears mentioning nonetheless: the Yankees should have a damn good bullpen next season.  If Joba stays in the pen, that gives the Yankees two strikeout artists (Joba and David Robertson) who could pitch in middle relief.  Additionally, the rubber-armed Pedro Feliciano and hard-throwing Boone Logan give the Yankees options to match up with tough lefties (and we know Girardi loves the lefty-on-lefty matchup).  Assuming Mo is still Mo, and Soriano is the pitcher he was last season, teams will have a tough time coming back on the Yankees.  However, even the world’s greatest bullpen can’t win games if your starters put you in a hole.

A look at Ramon Flores

Posted by Eric Schultz at 5:00 pm 5 Responses »
Jan 142011

DSC00648
photo courtesy of Andy in Sunny Daytona

Year Age Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 17 2 Lgs 62 239 197 22 41 5 4 1 19 7 6 33 40 .208 .329 .289 .618
2009 17 DOSL 11 52 39 8 10 0 3 1 5 0 1 11 5 .256 .423 .487 .910
2009 17 GULF 51 187 158 14 31 5 1 0 14 7 5 22 35 .196 .303 .241 .543
2010 18 3 Lgs 65 268 234 36 71 13 4 2 26 5 1 31 42 .303 .390 .419 .808
2010 18 GULF 43 189 158 33 52 10 4 2 22 4 1 28 22 .329 .436 .481 .917
2010 18 SALL 14 51 48 3 12 3 0 0 2 1 0 3 15 .250 .294 .313 .607
2010 18 FLOR 8 28 28 0 7 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 .250 .250 .250 .500
2 Seasons 127 507 431 58 112 18 8 3 45 12 7 64 82 .260 .361 .360 .721
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/14/2011.

It’s been a while since I posted anything prospect-related, so I figured this might not be a bad time to take a quick look at one of my favorite sleeper prospects: Ramon Flores. A 5’10″ lefty swinger who plays left field, Flores received a bonus around $775,000 when he signed with the Yankees out of Venezuela in 2008 at age 16. He made his debut in 2009 at age 17, raking for 11 games in the Dominican Summer League, before coming stateside and struggling, posting a .543 OPS.  There’s not a lot of info out on Flores yet, but he’s definitely somebody whom I will be keeping an eye on during next season.

In 2010, at age 18, Flores made impressive work of the Gulf Coast League, posting a .329/.436/.481 line, good for a .917 OPS (despite only hitting 2 home runs). The most important statistic to me, however, was his walk rate. He walked 28 times in 43 GCL games, while striking out just 22 times.  After 43 strong games, Flore was further challenged by a promotion to the low-A Sally league for 14 games (in which he posted a .607 OPS) and an 8-game stint in the high-A Florida State League (.500 OPS).  Although he clearly struggled at the higher levels, these are much tougher levels of competition than any 18 year-old would be expected to face (especially one who’s not considered an elite prospect), and the fact that he was able to perform acceptably in low-A was encouraging.

Flores is kind of an odd prospect because he’s a bit of a tweener: not fast enough to play centerfield, but not powerful enough to be a prototypical corner outfielder.  None of his tools particularly stand out as elite, but his walk rate in the GCL this season is indicative of an advanced approach at the plate, with good contact skills to match.  Plate discipline is a skill that tends to remain as a hitter advances through the minors, which bodes well for Flores’ future.  If he’s really 5’10″ 150 as his baseball reference page indicates, he probably has some room to add muscle and power, while not getting too big for the outfield. I’m not sure he’ll ever be a big power guy, but he could become a doubles machine who can get on base frequently.
If Flores can continue to maintain his polished hitting approach, he should be successful in his return to full season ball (he’ll likely start the season with Charleston in the Sally League), and if he performs well, the Yankees could be aggressive with him again. I wish there was more scouting info to go on, but from the numbers, I consider Flores to be an underrated prospect (he probably won’t be in many people’s top 30), who could shoot up the Yankee list with a strong season. Of course, the jump from the GCL to low-A is a big one, which will be a big test for the talented teenager, though having the more-hyped Gary Sanchez on the team could help take the pressure off.

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Yanks Sign Soriano, Infuriate Blogosphere

Posted by Eric Schultz at 9:11 pm 35 Responses »
Jan 132011

Surprising news tonight emerges courtesy of John Heyman (who has gotten a bad rap this offseason, but deserves credit for reporting the “mystery team” in on Cliff Lee as well as breaking this news), who broke the news that the Yankees have reportedly signed Tampa closer Rafael Soriano to a 3-year deal for around $35 million.  Soriano, who saved 45 games last season for the Rays, will likely serve as the primary setup man to Mariano Rivera, and will presumably have the unenviable task of succeeding the great Rivera. Soriano is cashing on on a career year in which he a 1.73 ERA, a 2.81 FIP, but was worth just 1.6 WAR (psst, closers aren’t worth very much, and neither are setup men).

I am fairly shocked by this news since Brian Cashman insisted that the Yankees would do everything they could to keep their first-rounder in the loaded 2011 draft, and signing Soriano gives that pick to division rival Tampa.  I will have more thorough analysis tomorrow when I have some time to think this over, but at present I’m not pleased with this signing, and I imagine I’m not the only one.  It smells like a panic move, and not the type of decision that should be made by a GM preaching patience.  I’m about to run out, but post thoughts/updates in the comment section, and I will address this issue more thoroughly tomorrow.

Reports: Lee takes his talents to Philly

Posted by Eric Schultz at 12:36 am 74 Responses »
Dec 142010

This is not official yet, but rumors (from reliable sources) going around the Twitterverse have been reporting that Cliff Lee turned down the Yankees’ approximately 7-year 154 million dollar offer for a 5-year 115 million dollar deal from the Phillies, a team that virtually nobody thought was even in on Lee.  It’s a bizarre turn of events because the Phillies traded Lee last year after he wouldn’t sign an extension with them, but evidently these things can change.  It’s unusual to see players leave money and years on the table (especially that much money), but I can’t fault Lee for turning down the money and going where he wanted to be.  I also can’t fault Brian Cashman here.  He did his job and gave Lee the highest offer, but evidently, Lee didn’t want to go to New York.  It’s unfortunate for the Yankees and Brian Cashman, who did his job and gave Lee the (presumed) highest offer.

So what’s next for the Yankees after this bombshell?  The Yankee rotation without Lee looks dangerously thin, and Cashman’s next task will likely be to beg Andy Pettitte to hold off retirement for one more year.  With Pettite, the rotation of Sabathia, Petttitte, Burnett (hopefully cured by Larry Rothschild), Hughes and Nova could still be playoff-worthy, but I imagine the Yankees will look to add another arm.  The free-agent market is pretty barren, with the best remaining guy, Carl Pavano, standing virtually zero chance of signing with the Yankees (and the Yankees probably don’t want him back either).

To acquire a frontline starter, the Yankees will probably have to look at the trade market.  A lot of speculation will revolve around Royals ace Zack Greinke, but I imagine that Dayton Moore’s high price will prevent a deal from happening, as he’ll try to chisel the seemingly desperate Yankees.  A Greinke deal would have to start with a Montero-caliber prospect, but the Royals already have an all-hit no-field catching prospect in Wil Myers, and the Yankee system lacks up-the-middle prospects that the Royals would covet.  I’m not sure who else could be made available, but there’s no ace-caliber arm on the trade market other than Greinke.  There may be concerns about how Greinke with his social anxiety disorder will be able to handle New York, but I wouldn’t let that get in the way of acquiring him if the price is right.

I doubt it will happen, but I think the Yankees should consider moving Joba Chamberlain back to the rotation.  Is it a panic move?  Maybe, but one with significant upside.  I think Joba still has the ability to be as good as if not better than pretty much any non-Greinke pitcher the Yankees could bring in.  Barring a trade for a frontline starter, it is an option that must be explored, because an 8th-inning guy is so much less valuable than a solid starter.  I know he’s been in the bullpen for a full season, but we’ve seen less talented relievers become successful starters (CJ Wilson and Ryan Dempster for example), and it’s worth a shot to see if Joba can rediscover his mojo in the rotation.

Are the 2011 Yankees  worse without Cliff Lee?  Almost certainly.  Are there some silver linings?  A few.  As EJ has alluded to, signing Lee to a big contract would be committing big dollars to another player in his 30′s who is on the wrong side of his prime.  By avoiding the contract, the Yankees could maintain flexibility, allowing them to shell out for the next big free agent (and preferably, one who’s not 32).  Additionally, they may get to keep their first-round pick in a loaded draft (unless they do something stupid like signing a Type-A reliever).  Also, Lee’s signing with Philly means that he’s not making a potential AL rival stronger.  Finally, the Yankees are returning pretty much the entirety of a 95-win team, while adding their top prospect into the catching mix.  Convinced?  Neither am I.  I would have loved to have Lee in the rotation, and I believe that he could have held up pretty well over the duration of the contract.

As Yankee fans, we’re used to getting everything we want.  For once, however, we’ll have to watch the shiny new toy we desperately wanted go somewhere else.  And it stings.  Regardless, it’s premature to panic and concede the season and the division to an improved Boston squad.  There will be bridge-jumpers and alarmists, but this is still a good Yankee club, and they still have to play the games.  Is there such thing as a 200 million dollar underdog?  There may be now.  Russell Martin here we come!
Update: Apparently the Rangers’ final offer may have been a little higher than the Yanks’.  6-year offer with a vesting option for a total of 161 million.

Sox Surprisingly Sign Speedster

Posted by Eric Schultz at 12:27 am 10 Responses »
Dec 092010

In a display of ninja-like stealth that would make even Brian Cashman proud, the Boston Red Sox made a big acquisition today.  Our old friend Peter Abraham broke the news, reporting that the Sawx have signed Rays OF Carl Crawford to a 7-year 142 million dollar contract.  This is a big signing for Boston, and somewhat of a surprise, as I’m sure many people were expecting Boston to be done with handing out big paychecks after acquiring Adrian Gonzalez (and his reported Teixeira-esque extension demands).

Crawford will be a nice addition to the Boston lineup, likely hitting in the 2-hole behind Jacoby Ellsbury, and ahead of Pedroia, Gonzalez, and Youkilis.  His speed and on-base ability will allow him to score a lot of runs in front of Boston’s big boppers, and give Yankee catchers fits on the basepaths.  He’s also a great defensive outfielder, though his defensive value will be limited at home (in Fenway’s small left field).  Before the Jason Werth signing, if somebody told me that Carl Crawford, whom I consider a very good player but not a star, would be getting 20 million/year for 7 years, I would have been shocked.  After the Werth deal, this one doesn’t look quite as bad for the Sox.  I am curious what this deal means for  Ryan Kalish, who was probably penciled in as the starting leftfielder after making a good impression in his debut last year.

The signing does put a number of other pieces in motion.  We can assume that the Angels (who were very interested in Crawford) will likely focus their attention on Adrian Beltre.  I imagine the Angels will wind up with Beltre, barring a Werth-esque surprise bid from another squad.  I could also see Boston pursuing a Type-A reliever (like Scott Downs) because they would only have to surrender a 2nd-round pick for the signing.

The addition of another lefty hitter (who does not hit as well against lefties) in the Boston lineup will likely increase the sense of urgency that the Yankees face to sign Cliff Lee, though I’m not sure his demands/price will be substantially changed.  The Crawford signing also takes Crawford off the market for the Yankees, who might have considered him as a fall-back should Lee wind up returning to the Rangers or going elsewhere.  I still think Lee is likely to end up in Pinstripes, as I doubt the Rangers or another team will match the Yankees’ alleged 6-year 140 million offer.

What does this signing mean for the division next year?  Certainly, Boston’s lineup will be improved, and top-to-bottom its depth is comparable to the Yankees’.  I might put Boston’s lineup slightly ahead of the Yankees’ at this point (mostly because of the age of Jeter, A-Rod and Posada), though with a Cliff Lee signing and an Andy Pettitte return (admittedly, neither are guaranteed at this point), I would take the Yankee rotation and bullpen over Boston’s.  Are the Yankees doomed?  Far from it.  It will definitely be an exciting race for the division, and with the Rays likely taking a step back ( losing Crawford, Pena, and Soriano), the team that doesn’t win the division will still be in good shape for a Wild Card berth.  Remember, they still have to play the games, and ultimately, the season will probably come down to which team suffers the fewest significant injuries.

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Yanks add 2 to the bullpen mix

Posted by Eric Schultz at 5:59 pm 2 Responses »
Nov 272010

With the Derek Jeter contract soap opera looming large in the background, occupying media and fan attention, nothing major has happened during the Yankee offseason.  Despite the lack of progress (as far as we know) with the Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, or Lee contracts, Brian Cashman has moved ahead to explore some bullpen alternatives.  Ken Rosenthal reported via twitter that the Yankees have signed LHP Andy Sisco and RHP Brian Anderson to minor league deals.  If neither of these names ring a bell, that would not be too surprising.

Sisco is a 6’10″, hard-throwing lefty who came up with the Royals in 2005, and last pitched in the majors in 2007 with the White Sox.  Sisco had Tommy John surgery in April 2008, and bounced around the Athletics’ and Giants’ minor league systems before getting released.  Sisco had a strong debut season in ’05, posting a 3.11 ERA in 75 1/3 innings, striking out 76 and walking 42.  Control continued to be a problem in 2006 and 2007, but his home run and hit rates spiked, and his strikeout rate dropped (to a still respectable 8 per 9 innings).  In his major league career, Sisco featured a fastball that averaged around 92-93 (thrown about 75-80% of the time), and used a slider and changeup infrequently as secondary offerings.  Sisco is currently pitching in Mexico with the Mexicali Aguilas, where he has reportedly been hitting 95 with the fastball.  There is a reason why Sisco has not stuck with an organization despite his left-handedness, height, and velocity: he has been too hittable, and has had control problems.  However, if his decreased performance could be attributed to injury (and he is healthy now), the Yanks could have their second lefty for the bullpen.

Brian Anderson is another interesting redemption project, with an intriguing back-story.  Anderson was supposed to be the centerfielder of the future for the White Sox, a 1st-round pick (15th overall) out of Arizona in 2003.  Despite a solid minor league career, Anderson was unable to translate his offensive success to the bigs.  His mediocre offensive production (never exceeding a .328 OBP) eventually caused the White Sox to give up on him, and he was picked up by the Red Sox and then the Royals.  The Royals decided that Anderson didn’t have a future in the majors as a pitcher, but were intrigued enough by his raw arm strength to try him on the mound.  Despite last pitching in college (11 innings with an 8.18 ERA in 2002), Anderson was pretty successful in his first minor league stint, posting a 3.18 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 68 innings across 4 levels of the minors, with 52 strikeouts and 25 walks.  Certainly not overwhelming success, but solid for a guy who hadn’t pitched in years.  Reports of Anderson hitting 97 and sitting 95 and flashing a decent slider bode well for Anderson’s potential, though control will likely be a problem for him due to lack of experience.

Chances are that neither of these guys stick with the big league team, but both have been through enough trials and tribulations that they are worth following (along with their ability to hit mid-90′s on the gun).  Anderson in particular would be the type of redemption story that saps like me can’t help but root for.  Anderson and Sisco will both be interesting to watch during Spring Training as they compete for spots in the back end of the Yankee bullpen.  If they struggle, they will likely wind up in the minors or released.  If they succeed, however, they could wind up as important contributors to the Yankee bullpen.

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