In case you have been under a rock for the last 12 hours, the Yankees have reacquired RHP Javier Vazquez and LHP Boone Logan from the Braves for OF Melky Cabrera, LHP Michael Dunn, and RHP Arodys Vizcaino.  Yankee fans probably remember Vazquez best for his shaky 2004 season, which saw him get off to a strong first half start (even making the All Star team) and struggle mightily in the 2nd half of the season, including the playoffs (giving up an infamous grand slam to Johnny Damon).  Based on his 2004 season, the criticism of Vazquez was that he was not mentally tough enough to handle playing in New York, and people who believe that to be the case will likely be outraged at this acquisition.

For those who weren’t following the NL closely this season, Vazquez was one of the top 5 pitchers in the National League, going 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA.  In 219 1/3 innings, he had 238 strikeouts against only 44 walks, with a 1.03 WHIP and a career-low 20 home runs allowed.  It was a potential Cy Young caliber season, and he finished 4th in the voting (behind Tim Lincecum, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright).  It was a career year for Vazquez, even better than his superb 2003 with Montreal that caused the Yankees to trade for him the first time around.  While Vazquez’s ERA is likely to rise moving to the AL and Yankee stadium, I’m going to look at his stats to see if he is likely to be a better pitcher than the 4.91 ERA that he put up in 2004.  Was 2004 the norm, or an exception to an otherwise impressive career?  Or was 2009 a fluke?  To Fangraphs, we go.  Analysis after the jump.

After a ridiculously busy Monday that saw the signing of the top pitcher on the market, a blockbuster 3-team deal, and the news that the Cardinals may offer Matt Holliday an 8-year deal, the hot stove is still burning.  While Boston made some big acquisitions yesterday in the form of John Lackey and Mike Cameron (and might add another bat via free agency or trade), Brian Cashman is not sitting pat.

Ken Rosenthal, via twitter, is reporting that the Yankees are “very interested” in signing RHP Ben Sheets.  Sheets, who missed the entire 2009 season after having surgery, is reportedly seeking as much as 12 million per year, a lot for a player who is coming off surgery, and has not pitched over 200 innings since 2004.  The Yankees would likely hope to offer Sheets a similar contract to that of Rich Harden, another oft-injured righty who can pitch like a front of the rotation starter when healthy.  Harden got a 6.5 million dollar deal with a mutual option for 11.5, for a total of 7.5 million guaranteed over 2 years.  The Yankees will probably offer Sheets a 1 year deal with a base salary in the 6-8 million range, with incentives for starts,  innings pitched, or some other measure of durability that could bring the value of the deal up to the 12 million dollar range that Sheets is demanding.

Sheets is an intriguing buy-low opportunity, and as a guy with great control and the ability to strke batters out (k:bb ratio of almost 4:1 for his career with a career 1.201 WHIP), he could be a nice addition to the Yankee rotation.  If signed, Sheets would likely compete with Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain for the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation, though he may want a guaranteed spot in the rotation as part of the deal.  If he insists on demanding more than a reasonable 1-year deal with incentives and a team option for a 2nd year, then it may be too expensive to justify the risk in signing a guy coming off elbow surgery.  An additional risk that Sheets entails is that he has never pitched in the AL before, but he is certainly talented enough to succeed in the AL East.  Sheets may not want to sign right away according to Rosenthal, so the Yankees may have to wait this one out.

Rosenthal also reports that the Yankees have contacted Jason Bay’s representatives, and may be interested in him.  I can’t imagine Cashman will want to shell out the kind of money for Bay that he appears to be demanding (considering he turned down a 4-year 60+million offer from Boston), considering Bay’s horrendous defense.   However, if Holliday signs with the Cardinals and Bay doesn’t have many suitors left, his price could drop, at which point Cashman and the Yankees might be willing to swoop in.

From what it sounds like, the Yankees are looking for at least another bat and likely a starter as well.  Johnny Damon, who can DH and play left field, is probably still the Yankees’ top choice (though not for a 4-year deal that Boras has reportedly demanded).  Other intriguing DH possibilities could include Nick Johnson, Jack Cust, and Carlos Delgado.  Justin Duchscherer is another pitcher the Yankees may be interested, and he has had success both as a starter and a reliever.  More updates will be posted when we hear them.

Just a preface to the article.  Although it may appear otherwise, I have not fallen off the face of the earth.  Senior year of college, and all that it entails has been taking its toll on me, so my posting has been virtually non-existent over the past few months.  I’m trying to remedy the situation, and while I almost certainly won’t be writing on a daily basis, I am going to try to increase the frequency of my contributions, both on the minors and other topics.  Thanks for your understanding, and to the other writers for keeping up the great work.  And now, back to baseball.

We Yankee fans have been spoiled for the last 13 years to have Derek Jeter as our starting shortstop. Despite his defensive struggles (which he improved on this season), Jeter’s exceptional production at a position high on the defensive spectrum (in terms of value and difficulty to play) has made him an extraordinary asset to the Yankees, especially in comparison to their New England rivals.  For the last five or so years, since Nomar Garciaparra’s departure, the Boston Red Sox have struggled to fill the shortstop position.  Because they traded away a future all-star in Hanley Ramirez (in the Josh Beckett deal), the Sox have instead employed a revolving door of mediocrity that has included the likes of the erratic Julio Lugo, familiar utilityman Nick Green, the disappointing Edgar Renteria, and (to this point) unimpressive youngster Jed Lowrie.

Boston GM Theo Epstein, normally the recipient of significant praise, has been criticized by the Fenway Faithful and even the normally adoring media for his inability to find at least an average shortstop, much less an all-star caliber one to compete with Jeter in the Bronx.  Dustin Pedroia reportedly offered to switch to shortstop (the position he played in college), but the Red Sox decided to leave the Gold Glove winner at 2nd.  By signing Marco Scutaro, probably the top shortstop on the market this offseason (excluding Chone Figgins, who can play the position, but likely won’t) to a 2-year deal worth 12.5 million with an option for a 3rd year, Epstein and the Sox hope they have solved their shortstop problem.  While this is only a short term fix, the 2 (possibly 3) year deal gives 19 year-old Cuban shortstop prospect Jose Iglesias the time he needs to develop his hitting (his defense is already major league ready, allegedly).

To Yankee fans, Scutaro is a familiar nemesis, having played on division rival Toronto for the last 2 seasons, and probably most notable for hitting a game-winning homer off Mariano Rivera while a member of the Oakland Athletics.  He had a career year for Toronto last season, going .282/.379/.409 with 12 homers, 100 runs and 60 RBI, as well as 90 walks against 75 strikeouts.  His defense at short was 1.3 runs above replacement, so he was basically an average defender.  From Fangraphs, we can see that he was a 4.5 WAR player, worth 20.2 million according to their valuation.  If 2009 Scutaro is the Scutaro that Boston signed, then Boston likely got a bargain, since his production in 2009 was worth more than 6.25 million.

However, 2009 for Scutaro was likely a career year, and given his career to date, it is likely to expect some regression.  His batting average of .282 represented a career high, .15 points higher than his previous high.  His BABIP was a little higher (.308) in ‘09 than his career average (.292), but not enough to raise concern about luck.  When looking at Scutaro’s stats in 2009, the number that jumps out at you is the number of walks.  Scutaro walked 90 times in 2009, a 58% jump from his previous high of 57, in 2008.  The walk total might be expected to return to career norms, since he had never come close to 90 walks prior.  His strikeout numbers have been relatively low throughout his career, 2009 didn’t really change anything in that regard.

Scutaro might have made improvements in patience and pitch selection that contributed to his offensive success in 2009, but at 34, it is more likely that Scutaro is on the decline.  Bill James projects Scutaro to put together a season similar to that of 2008, which would mean some decline in average (to .264) and patience (68 walks), which combined with his average (and possibly declining) defense, would make Scutaro a 2.5-3 WAR player for Boston.  Since Scutaro is not making much money, he could be worth the contract (he’d be worth 12 million as a 2.7 WAR player).  The combination of Nick Green and Jed Lowrie in 2009 yielded about 0.5 WAR, so assuming Scutaro doesn’t regress significantly, his addition will add 2 wins worth of production.

From the perspective of possibly adding 2 wins, the Scutaro deal is a definite upgrade for the Sox.  However, the likely upgrade over a full season of Jed Lowrie (according to his 2008 value) is not significant (Lowrie put up 1.9 WAR in 81 games in 2008).  Lowrie is superior defensively (8 runs above replacement in 2008, 3.3 in 2009), and could be a similar offensive player (less patience but possibly more power).  I understand Theo wanting to get an established veteran shortstop who will likely be average to above-average production wise, but Scutaro’s career season in a contract year at age 33 would make me very skeptical that he could continue to perform at that level.  Losing a 1st-round pick for signing the Type A free agent Scutaro is something that would concern a draft-follower like me, but considering that the Sox already have the #20 pick (courtesy of the Braves signing Billy Wagner), giving up #28 to shore up a longtime hole is not a big loss.  In conclusion, while Scutaro will likely outperform Boston’s 2009 shortstop production, the upgrade is by no means a game-changer, even if Scutaro doesn’t experience significant decline.  If he does decline, we could be looking at Julio Lugo 2.0.  And if the money given to Scutaro prevents Boston from signing Holliday, Bay, or John Lackey, Yankee fans should breathe a sigh of relief.

So happy right now.  Will have more coherent thoughts a little later.

A rough start by AJ Burnett on 3-days rest put the Yankees in a 6-2 hole that they were ultimately unable to recover from.  The enigmatic righty lasted just 2+ innings, giving up 6 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks.  After Alfredo Aceves and Dave Robertson combined for 4 innings of effective relief,  2 solo shots off of Phil Coke put the Phillies ahead 8-2, and the game appeared to be over.

Despite the deficit, the Yankees refused to go down quietly.  A 2-run double by Alex Rodriguez and a sac fly by Robinson Canó in the 8th cut the lead to 8-5, and suddenly, the Phillies had to take the game seriously.  In the 9th against Ryan Madson, who has been Charlie Manuel’s best relief option in this series, the Yankees continued to battle.  A leadoff double by Jorge Posada and a single by pinch-hitter Hideki Matsui (intelligently saved for a crucial situation by Joe Girardi) put runners on first and third with no outs, and the tying run was at the plate in the form of Derek Jeter.  Unfortunately, Captain Clutch was not so tonight, grounding into a rally-killing double play which scored a run but emptied the bases.  Johnny Damon gave the Yankees a chance by scratching a single after falling behind 0-2, but Mark Teixeira, representing the tying run, continued to struggle, and waved feebly at a Madson changeup.

It was a tough but not entirely unpredictable loss, but there are plenty of positives going forward:

• The Yankees are going back to their home park, where they will have the support of the home crowd, the comforts of home, et cetera.
• The return to Yankee Stadium also entails a return to the use of the DH, which greatly benefits the Bombers.  Hideki Matsui is hitting .556 in the series, so getting his bat in the lineup full-time represents a huge upgrade, more so than the insertion of Matt Stairs would do for the Phillies.
• Jorge Posada will be the Yankee catcher for games 6 and 7, which represents a significant offensive upgrade over Jose Molina.
• The Philly bullpen looks vulnerable, and the Yankees have shown that they are capable of getting to the closer and setup men in crucial situations.  No lead will be safe.  The late-inning rally, while ultimately unsuccessful, should give the Yankees confidence going forward that they can score off the Philly bullpen.
• While both are starting on 3-days rest, the Yankees have to feel confident in having the winningest playoff pitcher of all time going for them in Game 6 in Andy Pettitte, and their ace CC Sabathia in Game 7.  While the crafty Pedro Martinez could present a challenge to the Yankee lineup, the potential Game 7 matchup of Sabathia vs. either Cole Hamels or JA Happ greatly favors the boys from the Bronx.  The fact that Pettitte and Sabathia are both lefties should help to shut down the lefty hitters in the Philly lineup (except for Utley, who is singlehandedly carrying the team).
• The Yankees did not use several of their most important relievers tonight, which will ensure that they will be ready and able to go multiple innings.  These include Mariano Rivera (who should be able to get a 6-out save if called upon) as well as Damaso Marte (who has been death to the Philly lefties), and Joba Chamberlain, who, Feliz homer aside, has looked much improved in this series.
• And, lest I forget to mention it, the Yankees are up in the series 3-2.  All they need is one.

It’s going to be a long off-day.  Am I being too optimistic?  Perhaps.  But I have faith that they can close it out at home.

AJ’s off to a rough start, but Cliff Lee has looked far from invincible so far.  Go get ‘em!

Mark Feinsand of the Daily News is reporting that Melky Cabrera, who was removed from the game in the 6th inning with a hamstring injury, may not play in Game 5.  He would likely be replaced by either Brett Gardner or Jerry Hairston.  If Melky is unable to play for the rest of the series, Freddy Guzman or Francisco Cervelli could be activated.

Lineups courtesy of Sam Borden of Lohud:

New York Yankees

Derek Jeter SS
Johnny Damon LF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Melky Cabrera CF
CC Sabathia P

Philadelphia Phillies

Jimmy Rollins SS
Shane Victorino CF
Chase Utley 2B
Ryan Howard 1B
Jayson Werth RF
Raul Ibanez LF
Pedro Feliz 3B
Carlos Ruiz C
Joe Blanton P

Pitching Matchup: CC Sabathia (3-1 1.57) vs. Joe Blanton (0-0 4.66)

Go get ‘em.

Joe Girardi engages in a bit of overmanaging, pulling the hot pitcher in David Robertson after only 2/3 of an inning to pitch to Howie Kendrick with the bases empty.  Aceves, who has struggled this postseason, gave up a single to the Yankee-killer Kendrick and then a game-winning double to Jeff (just above the Mendoza line) Mathis.  I don’t like to second-guess the manager usually, but this decision made no sense to me, and unfortunately, it worked in the Angels’ favor.

For all the bridge-jumpers out there, the Yankees are still leading the series 2-1 and have their ace going up against the inconsistent Scott Kazmir.  Time for CC to come up huge once again.

Surprise defeats Mesa, 7-3

• Zach Kroenke gave up 3 hits in 2 shutout innings, and struck out 1.
• Grant Duff walked 1 in a scoreless inning of work.
• Brandon Laird was 1 for 5 with a 3-run shot and 3 strikeouts.  Laird is hitting .625 in AFL play so far, albeit in a very small sample size.
• Austin Romine, catching, was 2 for 5, and threw out 1/3 runners attempting to steal.  He is hitting .462 so far.

In non-Yankee prospect news, Nationals uber-prospect Stephen Strasburg made his professional debut for the Phoenix Desert Dogs.  Strasburg performed well as expected, hurling 3 1/3 shutout innings, with 2 strikeouts and a walk.  Even though he’s not a Yankee prospect, he will definitely be fun to follow in the hitter-friendly AFL.