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EJ Fagan

Frank Piliere Releases Top 100 MLB Prospects List

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 11 Responses »
Feb 102011

Frank Piliere of AOL Fanhouse released his top-100 MLB prospects yesterday. The Yankees came out pretty big.

#4 Jesus Montero: “He still has critics who like to point to his defense but there is just about no one who will criticize Montero’s bat. Will he be a good defensive catcher? No, but he has shown enough improvement to be an adequate defender. That combined with a potentially special bat make for an impressive total package.”

#13 Manuel Banuelos: “Some like to pretend Banuelos came from nowhere in 2010. Well, he didn’t. He picked up a couple ticks on his fastball and lives at 93-95 now, but even before the spike he was armed with two good secondary offerings and plus command.”

#34 Gary Sanchez: “Most organizations would sign up for having Sanchez as their top prospect, but he doesn’t even get the title of top catching prospect in his organization. That may soon change, however, as Sanchez’s bat rivals Montero’s at the same age and he looks like he’ll be a better defender.”

#44 Dellin Betances: “If not for his injury history, Betances would likely be toward the top 20 in this list. The owner of a 93-96 mph fastball, a plus curveball and a rapidly improving changeup, the towering right-hander has all the components you look for in a frontline starter.”

#60 Andrew Brackman (No Commentary)

And in his online chat, every other question was about Yankee prospects. On Banuelos:

[Comment From Jay CT]
What is Banuelos’s ceiling, and what ML pitcher could you compare him to?

Frankie Piliere: You know I get this question a lot. I use to not agree with the Johan Santana stuff but it’s probably the most accurate one if you have to pick a current big leaguer. He’s similar in size, velocity, and command to the Santana of a few years ago. The changeup is not as unhittable as Santana’s and he isn’t the pure strikeout machine Santana was. But there’s definitely some comparable aspects. I think Banuelos is a number one in the making. Not to say I told you so but I screamed about him last year at this time. People like to just talk about the new velocity but A. his velocity didn’t spike as much as people say. He went from 90-92, 93 to 92-95. and B. his game goes far beyond just raw stuff

[Comment From T-Dubs]
Assuming both had perfect health, is Betances a better prospect than Banuelos?

Frankie Piliere: Lots of Yankee questions. That’s difficult. I might be in the minority but I still think I take Banuelos. I absolutely love Betances’ stuff but the more bust proof guys are the guys with a great feel for pitching and that’s definitely Banuelos.

[Comment From Kim Last]
Would you take Banuelos or Hellickson?

Frankie Piliere: There’s a battle of two guys I absolutely love. Long term give me the lefty with the power stuff. Banuelos

On Jesus Montero:

[Comment From Ben Kabak]
How overrated is Montero? He won’t even catch.

Frankie Piliere: I’ll go with….not overrated. Let’s say for argument’s sake he doesn’t catch. He’s still an elite bat. And, I think he will catch so that’s why he’s up there on the list.

[Comment From Trevorlon]
Do you think the Yankees will move Montero to the outfield in the future or is he a dh?

Frankie Piliere: I’m sticking with him as a catcher. I know I’m in the minority but I’ve seen him enough to see improvement and enough to be an adequate defender.

On Gary Sanchez:

[Comment From Zak]
Gary Sanchez was 25th on your list midway through the season and he was bumped back, even though he finished strong, IMO. Was that due to overrating him on your previous list or something else?

Frankie Piliere: Just a mild adjustment. Now there are 2010 draftees to consider, and I saw more of the new players in instructs and the AFL. Certain no drop in stock for Sanchez. He’s as good as ever.

On Austin Romine:

[Comment From Zak]
Thanks for doing a chat! Austin Romine was 15th midseason on your list and no where to be found, unless my eyes are bad on your top 100 list. I got to see him and it just looked like he was flat out exhausted to me. Is there another reason why he was bumped off so badly?

Frankie Piliere: Lots of things can change huh? Yeah, with all the new draftees considered now and seeing guys more, I just started slowly sliding Romine back. He was one of the final few cuts. He definitely wore down I think. The 15 ranking could have been reactionary on my part because I don’t feel he’s dropped THAT much in status. But he’s slipped a bit, no doubt.

On Dellin Betances:

[Comment From jake h]
You are super high on Dellin. Do you see him as a starting pitcher?

Frankie Piliere: I definitely see him starting. Three average or better offerings and improving command.

On Adam Warren:

[Comment From Zak]
Adam Warren is one of my personal favorite from the Yankees farm system, seems like he doesn’t get too much love as he’s always grouped with Phelps, DJ Mitchell, etc as a backend of the rotation starter. I’m not saying he’s front line, but isn’t he at least worthy of a middle of the rotation type? He’s got good stuff!

Frankie Piliere: I like Warren better than the two others you mentioned. You’re right that he probably doesn’t get quite enough love. He’s not a finesse guy. He runs up into the mid 90s at times and relies on that fastball. But his secondary stuff continues to improve. He’s a middle of the rotation starter.

On Andrew Brackman:

Comment From Trevorlon]
What’s the ceiling of Andrew Brackman and where does he project as a starter?

Frankie Piliere: Let this serve as another opportunity for me to say i was wrong about Brackman. I was very down on him going into the season and he really resurrected himself. He’s a tough guy to project though. Still a bit inconsistent and at that size I think repeating his delivery will always be a challenge. I’d say he’s a #3 just because his command will never be completely consistent.

He offers a strong defense of Montero’s defense, plus great words about Betances, Banuelos, and even Adam Warren.

This is already a long post, so I won’t say much more, except one thing. I know that a lot of readers get a little worried that the powerful optimism about the Yankee farm system is just the product of some collective Yankee blogger Zeitgeist. Piliere is both one of the smartest guys out there publishing about prospects and has no vested interest for or against the Yankees. And he just compared Manuel Banuelos to Johan Santana. Think about that one.

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The Looming Time Bomb Of CC's Opt-Out

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Feb 092011

Dan Mennella at MLB Trade Rumors noted the following yesterday:

Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia has shed 30 pounds this offseason in an effort to reduce the load on his surgically repaired right knee, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com. Typically, we don’t get too excited over this sort of Spring Training cliche, as we’re bound to hear quite a bit about who’s in shape and who’s not over the next couple weeks, but 30 pounds is a lot of weight, and we’re especially mindful of the opt-out clause in Sabathia’s contract after the 2011 campaign. If he’s healthy and has a big season, Sabathia could be in for another big payday next offseason.

Health seems very important to this equation. Sabathia is owed $23 million per year from 2011 until 2015. That means if he opts out, he leaves $92 million dollars over 4 seasons on the table. He will be 31 years old.

If Sabathia has another Cy Young-caliber season, it will no doubt be the correct economic decision for him to exercise his opt-out clause and try to earn similar money over more years on the open market. Cliff Lee, a highly comparable, if slightly less able, pitcher earned $120 million over 5 years, despite being a full year older than Sabathia will be after 2011. And Lee actually turned down quite a bit of money to settle with the Phillies. I don’t think its unreasonable to expect Sabathia to attract offers in the 6 / $150 range after another year of baseball inflation. Opting out could make him roughly $50 million dollars richer, or more.

Very few players in the history of baseball have ever left that much money on the table for any reason. Lee turned down $28 million to return to the Phillies, and Gil Meche left $12 million on the table to retire, but if Sabathia chooses not to opt-out, he would be passing up the opportunity to earn quite a bit of money.

Of course, Sabathia insists that he will not opt-out of his contract. And he may have such a strong feeling of loyalty to the Yankees and New York that he chooses to stay put. But really, does anyone believe him?

Now, Moshe and others would probably chime in right now and say that the Yankees could benefit from Sabathia opting out. The Yankees got him for his age 28-30 seasons, and would be on the hook for the beginning of his decline years at a high price. There’s some merit to this argument, but I don’t think we should follow it down that path. A free agent ace starting pitcher costs a lot of money, and requires the team to take on significant risk, in today’s market. The Yankees have the money to spend, and Sabathia is as good a guy as there is out there to spend money on. While 36 years old is by no means young, most players haven’t yet completely broken down by the time they reach that age. The odds are that Sabathia will continue to be productive for the majority of his contract.

If Sabathia opts out, the Yankees have some choices. They can resign him at an exorbitant price, or look elsewhere. Elsewhere theoretically includes the fairly weak 2012 free agent market for starting pitchers, the farm system, or a trade. None of these options presents itself with a near-term ace-caliber pitcher to carry the team through the playoffs and to the World Series. If another 28 year-old ace was available on the free agent market, The Yankees would be smart to go and pay him, and let Sabathia bring his risky early 30s to another team. But he is no, so I fear that the end conclusion will be that Sabathia opts out and the Yankees are forced to pay him a lot more money than they currently are. Alex Rodriguez de ja vu here we come. Please Cashman, no more opt-out clauses.

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Shameless Plug #1 - Yankees Annual 2011

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:01 pm 2 Responses »
Feb 082011

Forgive me for tooting my own horn and trying to sell you a great product.

I have just been informed that this year’s Yankees Annual magazine has been sent to the presses, and is also now available for pre-order. I had the privelege of writing two articles for this year’s Annual, which also includes articles written by MLB Trade Rumor’s Howard Megdal,  AOL Fanhouse’s Dan Graziano, Baseball Daily Digest’s David Golebiewski and a whole bunch of other writers who are universally more qualified than I am. Over the four years that I have been writing for it, the magazine has evolved from a basic spring training and fantasy baseball preview to a real hub for high quality Yankee writing. It will include everything from an interview with Pat Venditte to Professor of Physics and Baseball Analyst contributor Alan M. Nathan’s attempt to measure the length of a legendary Mickey Mantle home run.

My first article is called, “A Good Harvest”, and recaps the 2010 season in the minor leagues. I offer a few big picture thoughts that I haven’t typed here, plus a great summary of everything that happened this season. The first two paragraphs:

2010 may have been a disappointing season in the major leagues for the Yankees, but news was different down on the farm. The Yankees experienced a true prospect renaissance in the minors, with good news on all fronts. Over a dozen players pitched and hit their way onto the prospect radar, and already-defined prospects almost universally boosted their case for major league consideration. .

Much of the action for the team occurred at Double-A and Triple-A. This means that many of the big farm system names will spend 2011 very close to the major leagues. The Yankees vastly improved their starting pitcher depth heading into 2011, with as many as 8 talented young starting pitchers potentially competing for spots on the depth charts. The team continued to build the major league’s best catching depth. And finally, the Yankees’ extensive, and at times risky, financial investments on draft day paid off in big ways.

The second article is called, “Spreading the Wealth”, and takes an in-depth look at the 2010 draft. My basic thesis is that the Yankees adopted a drafting strategy that on the surface looked routine (The Yankees spent a lot of money), but in reality was much different from past years. An excerpt:

The Yankees unveiled a new draft strategy in 2010; they spread their bets. Rather than spend big on one or two high-round draft picks or international free agents, the Yankees paid moderately big money to a dozen players.

Signing bonuses for drafted players in baseball generally follow a rigid, hierarchical order. The Commissioner’s Office recommends signing bonuses for each draft, gradually lowering the bonus level for each successive pick. Players drafted in the first round will usually top a million dollars, while players drafted after the 4th round often garner just a few tens of thousands. This is called the slotting system, and most teams use it to figure out how to pay their draft picks. Teams that veer too far from slotted bonuses will draw anger from Bud Selig, and most teams don’t like to upset the order of things.

You can either pre-order the magazine now, or pick it up all over grocery stores, gas stations, book stores, and any where else magazines are sold in the tri-state area beginning March 1st.

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Projecting the 2011 Minor League Rotations

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 7 Responses »
Feb 032011

With the off season winding down, I figure that it is about time to see where everybody is going to wind up. The Yankees manage to emerge from a slow post-2011 off season while hanging on to all of their top pitching prospects. I have prepared this graphic in order to attempt to project where they will all end up.

Brian Cashman wasn’t kidding when he said that our upper minor league rotations are full. The Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre Yankees and Double-A Trenton Thunder will have, by some measures, 10 prospects to fill 10 rotation spots. Craig Heyer and Shaeffer Hall are certainly the runts of the group, but they are a big improvement on the years when these kinds of guys took those spots. There is some downside to that of course – players won’t really be able to move up to a higher level in the middle of the season without an injury clearing the way. And of course, an injury means that a valuable prospect just went down. Last season saw guys like Dellin Betances and Manuel Banuelos make unexpectedly quick rises through the minor leagues. That won’t be as easy for Brett Marshall and Jose Ramirez, and it could keep a strongly performing Graham Stoneburner stuck at Double-A. Plus, if Nova gets bumped down to the minors, it throws the whole system into disarray. Still, that’s not a bad problem to have.

Scranton gets to start off with Andrew Brackman, Hector Noesi and David Phelps. Each has their own little test. Brackman has to continue to pitch within his mechanics like he did last year, since this is his last year with any options. David Phelps has to prove that his stuff plays to advanced hitters. Hector Noesi has a similar story – he needs to show whether or not his control of the strike zone holds up as he nears the majors. For Noesi, it will be about defining whether or not he can be a Major League innings eater or a serious impact starting pitcher. Adam Warren needs to follow up his standout performance at Trenton last season with another one, or start to face a possible bullpen conversion. D.J. Mitchell needs to learn to get lefties out, or he will be the first starting pitcher converted to the bullpen after Dellin Betances has a 15 strikeout game.

The story in Trenton is no doubt about Banuelos and Betances. Betances needs to stay healthy. He hasn’t had a truly healthy season since 2008, and smart watchers are very concerned that he’ll continue to be brittle. Height issues aside, Banuelos has none of those concerns. We’ll be looking for him to reestablish the amazing velocity he showcased last season, and continue to put up eye-popping numbers. Graham Stoneburner both has to follow up a phenomenal breakout season and deal with the struggle of being overshadowed by some many prospects above him. No matter how well he does, Stoneburner will probably not budge from the Trenton rotation all year. Too many guys are ahead of him. Heyer and Hall aren’t great prospects, but Heyer did pull off a 0.6 BB/9 last year, so who knows. Maybe he’s pretty good.

Brett Marshall could make Tampa very exciting this year. He’s a better prospect than people realize, and certainly made an impression after coming back from surgery last season. His challenge will be to strike out more batters with his 95-97 mph fastball, since he has averaged just 7.0 K/9 in 3 minor league seasons. Jose Ramirez joins him in the underrated category, and a strong performance could see him competing with Marshall to bump one of Hall or Heyer from Trenton. Jairo Heredia is still seeking redemption behind them, but hasn’t recovered well from shoulder issues. Sean Black may be the next David Phelps, but I know nothing about Kelvin Perez.

In Charleston, we’re searching for a breakout. Bryan Mitchell is one of the bigger sleepers in the organization. He profiles a lot like Brett Marshall, with wild, untamed flamethrowing stuff and at times a killer curveball. Varce and Burawa are experienced college arms who could climb up the ladder quickly, and both Richardson and O’Brien have some potential to be decent. Its a solid bunch, even if none have become all that exciting yet. However, a strong performance could put any of them on the map as future MLB prospects, especially Mitchell.

Of course, these are just projections. Adam Warren could be bumped from the Scranton rotation in favor of a veteran (one of Colon or Garcia perhaps) or Ivan Nova. On the lower end, the Yankees could push experienced players like Zach Varce or Daniel Burawa to Tampa, while cutting either Jairo Heredia or Kelvin Perez. One of the EST starters could impress in spring training and start in Charleston. Burawa could also be one of several to be converted to relief pitching along with D.J. Mitchell and Taylor Morton.

Which rotation is the most interesting to pay attention to? Obviously, its a contest between Trenton and Scranton, though Marshall and Ramirez could make some noise down in Tampa. Scranton has 5 legitimate prospects, while Trenton is kind of dragging along their bottom two. Still, I go with Trenton, where Betances and Banuelos will put on a show two days out of every 5.

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Top 20 Yankee Hitters Of All Time?

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 21 Responses »
Feb 022011

Over at Bleacher Report, they came up with a list of the top 20 Yankee hitters of all time. The list:

1. Babe Ruth
2. Lou Gehrig
3. Derek Jeter
4. Mickey Mantle
5. Joe DiMaggio
6. Don Mattingly
7. Bernie Williams
8. Yogi Berra
9. Earle Combs
10. Billy Dickey
11. Tony Lazzeri
12. Roy White
13. Bob Meusel
14. Thurman Munson
15. Phil Rizzuto
16. Jorge Posada
17. Roger Maris
18. Wade Boggs
19. Frank Crossetti
20. Bobby Richardson

I look at this list with a big fat blank stare. Wade Boggs? Frank Crossetti? Jeter over Mantle? Bernie Williams over Yogi Berra? Bob Meusel ranked 13th all time? If we’re including players like Wade Boggs, where is Alex Rodriguez? And what the hell is Bobby Richardson, Mr. .299 OBP, even doing in the top-40? He’s a big reason why Mantle didn’t get more RBIs.

Here is my list, using the following criteria: overall contribution as a position player, more credit to post-Jackie Robinson era players, and limited to contributions as a Yankee.

1. Babe Ruth
2. Mickey Mantle
3. Lou Gehrig – Loses to Mantle because of era
4. Joe DiMaggio – Beats Jeter because he gets credit for losing ages 28-30 due to WWII
5. Derek Jeter
6. Yogi Berra
7. Jorge Posada
8. Alex Rodriguez – Seriously, Wade Boggs over Arod?
9. Billy Dickey
10. Bernie Williams
11. Don Mattingly
12. Willie Randolph
13. Tony Lazzeri
14. Thruman Munson
15. Earle Combs
16. Roy White
17. Phil Rizzuto (Points for defense)
18. Graig Nettles
19. Dave Winfield
20. Charles Keller

Because I’m only rating their career as a Yankee, some greater part-time Yankees like Ricky Henderson (better than Wade Boggs), Reggie Jackson, and Tim Raines get left off the list.

I didn’t give players a handicap for being injured, but I did give them points for things completely out of their control like being drafted or dying in a plane crash. I strongly believe that Don Mattingly is incredibly overrated, while Jorge Posada is incredibly underrated. I knocked Tony Lazzeri and Earle Combs down quite a bit because they played in a comparatively uncompetitive era, and got to hit next to Gehrig and Ruth.

But that’s my list. Discuss.

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The Real Moneyball Lesson

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 3 Responses »
Feb 012011

Mike Axisa at River Ave Blues wrote a great post yesterday about one of Cashman’s comments at his talk with Josh Norris:

Josh Norris sat down for a chat with Brian Cashman on Friday (part one, part two), getting the GM to spill the beans about a number of topics, including Jesus Montero, the draft, and a bunch of other stuff. Unfortunately he didn’t say anything controversial, so those of you who enjoy that sort of stuff are out of luck. Rather than give you just a link and telling you to check it out, I wanted to talk briefly about some of the stuff Cashman discussed. I block-quoted some of it and added my two cents below, but still, you should go check out the interview in its entirety. Josh did a great job as usual. On to the quotes…

We have been very aggressive in the draft and re-dedicated ourselves to tools, not necessarily to performance coming out of the amateur ranks.

I’m going to focus on the tools over performance part, because the Yankees have drafted quite a few guys with questionable college performances and turned them into quality prospects because they focused on the talent. David Phelps jumps to mind, he had a 4.65 ERA and a decidedly unsexy 7.26 K/9 in his final year at Notre Dame, but his minor league career features a 2.50 ERA (382.1 IP) and last year he struck out eight men per nine. David Adams hit just .286/.384/.411 in his draft year at Virginia, but as a pro he owns a .281/.370/.439 batting line with wood bats against much better competition. Andrew Brackman belongs in this conversation as well.

This caught my eye as I began my annual ritual of rereading Moneyball before spring training. The performance vs. tools thing has been a hot button issue since Moneyball came out. Moneyball was a book about a lot of bigger ideas than tools vs. performance, but that dynamic is one of the more controversial points made by the book. For those that haven’t read it (I highly recommend you go buy it today), Billy Beane was angry that his scouting department wasn’t producing results. They generally picked players based upon traditional measures of tools – their swing, their batting practice power, their arm, their speed, etc, or the speed of their fastball. So, with Michael Lewis taking notes, Beane decided to spend the 2002 draft selecting players almost entirely by their college statistics. Although he selected some very useful players like Joe Blanton, Nick Swisher, Brad Ziegler, and Jonathan Papelbon (did not sign), the strategy is generally considered a failure. Scouts were correctly able to identify that Jeremy Brown was too fat to catch in the major leagues.

No one, including the Oakland A’s, drafts today using the Moneyball strategy. Teams tried it for awhile, but it didn’t work. However, when Cashman says that they are going back to tools, he isn’t suggesting that they are going back to pre-Moneyball methods of player evaluation. That is because the true lesson of Moneyball was that both the scouts and Billy Beane were wrong. Billy Beane was wrong that college baseball statistics can predict the performance of a professional baseball player. It turns out that scouts are actually pretty good at predicting how tools will translate to performance. However, the scouts were wrong about what kind of baseball players help a team to win games. They didn’t care if a player took walks, made pitchers work or controlled the strike zone. They overvalued defense (though we’re moving back a little bit that way), baserunning, the ability to hit for singles, and certain other characteristics.

This is really important for a number of reasons. I’m sure that the Houston Astros have a bunch of very experienced, capable scouts out there. They can tell the Bryce Harpers apart from the Jeremy Browns, and would probably have prevented the A’s from drafting Ben Fritz. However, I’m not convinced that the Astros management gets the very basic concepts of what makes a baseball player good. Fret all you want about the merits of stats like VORP and WAR, but the basic concepts behind them are undeniable: players should be compared against their positional peers in some systematic way, getting on base is the most important thing for hitters, players don’t have much control over balls in play, etc. The A’s scouts didn’t get this, and I’m willing to bet that a few teams in the MLB still don’t either.

Why have the Yankees succeeded in the late and middle rounds the draft lately? I’m sure that they have some great scouts, but Damon Oppenheimer isn’t personally going in and checking out every 12th round pick. But they’re still churning out potential major leaguers at a fantastic rate, along with quite a few high-end prospects. They correctly realized that David Adams sophomore year at UVA (.372/.454/.522) was more representative than his very disappointing junior year (.286/.384/.411), which turned off a lot of major league teams who regarded him as a 2nd round pick. Ditto for David Phelps, who had a disappointing junior year following a really great sophomore year. The difference is less about tools vs. performance than it is about correctly interpreting performance. Having scouts analyze tools is a huge part of this, but it all plays into the big picture.

The real lesson of Moneyball was that a lot of very smart people in baseball misunderstood the basic physics of the game. I get the sense that the Yankees have both a very good understanding of the basic physics of the game and a feel for the art of finding players who can succeed under those physics. Its a blend of Billy Beane and the scouts he derided.

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Yes Censorship Points To Conflict In Yankee Front Office (UPDATED: RAB Statement)

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 14 Responses »
Jan 272011

I’ve avoided commenting much on Moshe’s post about how YES seemed to have put pressure on two of its blogs, River Ave Blues and The Pinstripe Bible, to wait to see if anyone involved with deny it. The YES Network’s official response was “no comment”, as was the official response from both the writers at River Ave Blues and the Pinstripe Bible. That they refused to deny that something went on, in my mind, is pretty close to confirmation that something did go on.

Some bloggers, promoted by YES, said that the Rafael Soriano deal was a bad decision. They weren’t particularly vitriolic about it, they just disagreed with the signing. At the same time, Brian Cashman publicly, although politely, disagreed with the signing. He said that it was a bad idea, and very blankly stated that he had nothing to do with it. Someone else in the Yankee organization went over his head and convinced ownership to make a bad move. Welcome back to the George Steinbrenner area.

It is significant because both RAB and the Pinstripe Bible blogs say negative things about the Yankees all the time, but this has never been a problem in the past. YES, correctly, doesn’t think that it costs the Yankees one cent to have a sponsored blog dissent every once in awhile. However, the Rafael Soriano signing somehow triggered a response from someone in the hierarchy. I think that it is possible that Randy Levine is the person behind it all. Levine is the President of the New York Yankees, and had been George Steinbrenner’s chief voice in the Yankee front office. Levine was the key player in Steinbrenner’s Tampa-based decision making team in the late Torre years, but eventually lost much of his influence as Steinbrenner grew old and Brian Cashman established his autonomous control of the front office. He was reported to be the person behind the signing. He’s also known to be a bit hotheaded and temperamental.

I suspect that Randy Levine was quite sensitive that his YES-sponsored blogs were saying bad things about his signing, and by extension him, and called up to yell at someone at YES. YES responded by telling Steve Goldman to take down and then heavily edit his post, and by removing RAB from the YES site for a couple of days.

This is important because it indicates a renewed power struggle within the Yankee front office. As William notes in this post, this kind of split would be a big problem for the Yankees. Baseball teams have to make moves with a focused, long term plan in mind. A two-headed monster leading the organization will not be good in the long term, regardless of what you think of the Soriano signing. It wasn’t all that long ago that Brian Cashman had to fight Randy Levine to not trade prospects, invest more in the draft, or make important personnel decisions (Notably, Guerrero vs. Sheffield). To make matters more complicated, Brian Cashman’s contract is up after this season.

We could be in for a rocky year.

Photo Credit: John Munson/The Star-Ledger

Updated by Moshe: I just received an official statement from RAB on this issue:

“The YES Network has no editorial control over the content produced by River Ave. Blues, and at no point during our relationship has YES ever asked us to edit or remove any post we’ve published on RAB.”

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Yankees Sign Bartolo Colon to a Minor League Deal

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm No Responses »
Jan 262011

Via MLB Trade Rumors:

The Yankees missed out on Cliff Lee, but they signed a former Cy Young Award winner who was once traded for the lefty they coveted this winter. Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reports that the Yankees have signed Bartolo Colon to a minor league deal (Twitter link).

Colon had been showing signs of life in the Dominican Winter League. He last pitched in the big leagues in 2009, throwing 61 solid innings in 12 starts, with a 4.19 ERA.

As far as potential 5th starters go, Colon’s pretty much the best you can bring in on a riskless minor league deal. I don’t know anything about his physical shape, but plenty of players have benefited from taking a full year off from baseball. The 162-game grind doesn’t heal completely in the short off season. I’d say that at this point, Colon is an odds-even chance to be our 5th starter. Normally I don’t read much into “best shape of his life” reports, but (hat tip RAB) Colon did lose something like 40 pounds in order to get into shape for the DWL. For a big man like Colon, that could actually be important.

I’m sure his contract includes some type of opt-out if he doesn’t make the 25-man roster out of spring training. It is hard to imagine that the former Cy Young winner will pitch in Triple-A, and that the Yankees would clear a spot in their already overloaded Scranton rotation for him to pitch.

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Can A NY Manager Use Unconventional Tactics?

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 6 Responses »
Jan 252011

Last week, I wrote that the Yankees should use Rafael Soriano as a fireman, not as an 8th inning guy. Over at River Ave Blues, Ben Kabak wrote a post agreeing with me. Now, Stephen Rhoads, our former TYUer-turned-RABer offered a different reply. He argues that using Rafael Soriano that way makes tons of sense, but the NY media won’t let it happen:

It’s no secret that the New York media is unforgiving. While Brian Cashman seems to avoid a lot of the nastiness, plenty of reporters assume a sarcastic and critical approach towards Joe Girardi. Their Twitter accounts during games are rife with jokes about Girardi’s matchup binder, and they seem to enjoy playing “gotcha” with Girardi’s information about player injuries and explanations about decisions. Very simply, an unorthodox idea like using Soriano as the fireman would likely be met with criticism in print, in the airwaves and on the internet. One can imagine the reaction if Soriano blew a lead in the sixth inning and the Yankees lost the game, or if Soriano saved a lead in the sixth but saw Joba Chamberlain surrender the lead later in the game. It’s easy to picture the back page of the New York Post with a gigantic headline like, “Bonehead: Why is Joe Girardi using his $35 million dollar man in the sixth inning?”

He also mentions that the Yankee organization itself may not let Girardi use the unconventional tactic, even if he wants to.

I think that there’s a lot of truth in what Stephen says, but I still think Girardi should go for it. There will be plenty of indigent outrage from a bunch of old beat writers (Mostly George King and Joel Sherman, plus Mike Francessa on the radio I’m sure), calling for a return to 19th century strategy. And I’m sure that old-timers like Randy Levine within the Yankee organization will probably be a little bit angry. I just think that Girardi just shouldn’t listen to them.

This isn’t 1985. George Steinbrenner isn’t around to fire his championship-winning manager at the slightest sign of trouble. The New York Media is still plenty powerful, but its also a whole lot less dumb than  it was back in the Torre era. Does anyone really think that Chad Jennings is going to criticize Girardi for using such a self-evidently smart tactic? Bryan Hoch? Marc Craig? Bob Klapisch? The Yankees have plenty of young, smart beat writers who would be happy to contrast to their old antiquated colleagues in the press box. Sure, talk radio will freak out. But the outrage won’t be as extreme as it was in past years, because there will be dissenting voices in the crowd. Furthermore, Girardi has backers in the New Media that past managers did not have. Specifically, he has the blogs. Individually, few if any blogs on the internet have the penetration of a newspaper. But collectively, we all provide a voice of regular fans, reaching many thousands of Yankee fans every day. He’ll have the support of pretty much every smart blogger out there, helping to counterbalance the idiots on talk radio.

Later, Stephen says that the organization will not want to rock the boat and take on some kind of unnecessary risk. He says,

But the Yankees don’t particularly need to reinvent the wheel. They don’t need to discover untapped markets of value like the Rays or the Athletics need to in order to succeed. In New York, where the lights are as bright and as hot as anywhere on the planet and where “what have you done for me lately?” is a way of life, there is little margin for failing and looking dumb.

Here’s the thing: they kind of have to. The Rays and Red Sox are looking really strong this season, and the Yankees have some bumps on their own team to deal with. They aren’t longshots by any means, but they also aren’t shoe-ins. Both Tampa and Boston are very smart organizations who absolutely will be looking to discover untapped markets of value at every step along the way. If the Yankees are concerned about “looking dumb” more than winning games, then they will be the third best team in the division, and frankly look pretty dumb after spending three times the Rays payroll. Winning makes you look smart. Using Rafael Soriano the right way helps you win, which makes you look smart. Media outrage doesn’t game managers fired; losing games gets managers fired. Girardi should do everything he can to win games, and politely say “screw you” when Joel Sherman writes something stupid.

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What if the new CBA allowed teams to trade draft picks?

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Jan 202011

I never understood why MLB prohibits teams from trading their draft picks. Luckily, it is one of the changes frequently discussed when reporters mention things under consideration for the new CBA. On a baseball level, it makes sense. Rebuilding teams can get draft picks for their players at the trade deadline, and other teams can trade up in order to land a certain player. But the question that interests me more is would the Yankees benefit? The Yankees are perennial buyers at the trade deadline, and will almost always draft very low in the 1st round on draft day. On the other hand, they also spend more on above-slot signings than other teams, so they might be willing to trade away their top draft pick and still sign Mason Williams when all is said and done.

I think at the trade deadline, the ability to trade draft picks will on net hurt the Yankees. There are a lot of contendingish teams out there that have really crappy farm systems right now – the Cubs, the Dodgers, the Brewers, the Mets, the Tigers, and the White Sox all come to mind off the top of my head. Right now, they don’t really have the ability to compete with teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and others who have real assets to trade away for another team’s assets. However, draft picks are much more useful to the teams with good scouting departments rather than those teams, so they will hold value, and the Yankees will face more competition when bidding for services. Prices for trades will rise due to basic supply and demand dynamics.

On the other hand, the Yankees could really benefit from being able to trade up. They tend to have a lot of guys sitting around who can play MLB baseball but can’t really play on a championship-caliber team. Many of these come from mid-round picks which could be great fodder to trade up with. Imagine – the Yankees really like a player who they don’t think will be around at the end of the 2nd round, so they offer Pittsburgh their 2nd, 3rd, and 5th round picks in exchange for Pittsburgh’s 2nd round pick. This logic could even extend into the 1st round – the Yankees give up volume in return for a superstar-quality prospect. Their budget allows them to do so, as they can fill roster spots with free agents that other teams can’t afford to. Basically, the Yankees would draft fewer prospects, but in higher slots. I think it would be a wise strategy. They can spend money on signability guys in the later rounds still.

I could also foresee a situation, if compensation picks mostly remain the same, where the Yankees are net buyers of draft picks. Look at Tampa Bay this year – they hold something like 11 or 12 of the first 100 picks. They probably don’t have the budget to make that worthwhile. I could foresee the Yankees (if Tampa wasn’t a division rival) leveraging their budget to trade already-signed prospects to the poor team with a lot of draft picks for a fairly well reduced price.

But that’s just my speculation. Does anyone else have any suggestions on whether or not trading draft picks would be good or bad for the Yankees?

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