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Chris H.

Heyman: Yanks favorite to land Lee this winter

Posted by Chris H. at 8:31 pm 4 Responses »
Jun 222010

Hey, how about a piece on Seattle’s Cliff Lee?

Via Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated:

The Yankees look like a favorite to sign Lee in the winter considering: 1) their vast wealth, 2) the potential loss of free agent Javier Vazquez and possibly Pettitte from the rotation, 3) their general admiration for Lee and 4) the Lee connections of CC Sabathia (a former teammate in Cleveland) and A.J. Burnett (he and Lee have the same agent), but it’s difficult to predict who’ll get him now considering the $4-$5 million he’ll be owed could be afforded by most contending teams.

The Mariners are thought to have some extra interest in a catcher, which could give the edge to the Twins (Wilson Ramos) or Yankees (Austin Romine, Jesus Montero and Francisco Cervelli). But the Yankees don’t appear to have an overwhelming need for a top-of-the-rotation starter, but will make a call, just in case they like Seattle’s asking price.

If you’re hoping the Yankees trade for Lee this season, I think it’s fairly clear that they intend on waiting until the crafty left-hander is a free agent to pursue him. As I have said in the past, that could surely change if one of the team’s 5 starting pitchers suffers a significant injury (and by significant, I mean season-ending). However, even then I think the Yankees might be inclined to piece something together internally. While Brian Cashman is far from a perfect GM, this is one of the issue I think he has a good grip on, meaning that he won’t sell the farm for a few months of Cliff Lee.

Photo by Getty Images

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Lefties and the bullpen

Posted by Chris H. at 8:51 pm 1 Response »
Jun 212010

Currently, the Yankee bullpen boasts a 4.15 FIP and a 4.35 xFIP. When compared across the two leagues, both numbers are fairly average, however, it should be noted that each figure is somewhat illusory. In reality, Joba Chamberlain – 2.25 FIP and 3.15 xFIP – and Mariano Rivera – 2.79 FIP and 3.46 FIP – have helped to bring the Yankees’ collective FIP and xFIP down, as no other reliever on the staff can claim an FIP lower than 4.28 or an xFIP lower than 4.03 (most of them have FIPs closer to 5, with xFIPs well over). The numbers have been evident on the field, too, as the bullpen has repeatedly faltered.

One of the Yankees bigger ‘pen problems has been their left-handed relief. Damaso Marte owns an ERA of 3.65, yet his BABIP is .214 (.289 career). Plus, his FIP and xFIP are 5.16 and 6.43. Meanwhile, Boone “Freakin” Logan (he has earned that name) currently sports a 4.20 ERA, yet he owns a 4.66 FIP and a 5.07 xFIP. Basically, though the numbers these two have put up against lefties have not been particularly poor, there doesn’t appear to be a light at the end of the tunnel, as both are performing over their heads. Neither left-hander really inspires much confidence and the numbers suggest that this is understandable.

So, what should the Yankees do to better this aspect of their bullpen? After all, it is an area that manager Joe Girardi seems to care about a great deal. Should they seek a trade? Matt Thornton of the White Sox could very well be available (he is probably one of, if not the best, left-handed relievers in the American League). Or perhaps the club should consider its internal options at the minor league level? Royce Ring is currently doing very well in Scranton – 1.50 ERA over 24 innings – though his FIP against left-handers is 4.76. There is also a guy named Kei Igawa down there who, despite a 5.45 ERA over 33 innings pitched, has posted an impressive 1.98 FIP against left-handers this season (albeit across only 11 innings).

Neither of these ideas – trades or internal options outside of Marte and Logan – seem to be guaranteed improvements over what the Yankees currently have, however. Therefore, might it be best to try and “fix” Marte and Logan – mechanically, mentally, whatever – in the hopes that they can beat the numbers and perform better than the stats suggest going forward? To be honest, I don’t know what the correct route is.

What do you think should be done?

Photo by Getty Images

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Mark Teixeira doesn't deserve your All-Star vote

Posted by Chris H. at 8:45 pm 7 Responses »
Jun 152010

With regards to this year’s All-Star voting, I absolutely refuse to vote for the slumping Mark Teixeira as the American League’s first baseman. Minnesota’s Justin Morneau, who, by about 200K votes, currently leads the voting at that position (at least as of yesterday), is a much more deserving candidate. For a quick comparison, Teixeira is hitting a paltry .229/.346/.392, while Morneau is hitting a Cano-like .350/.460/.636. Really, in terms of pure offensive output, there is no contest (KC’s Billy Butler deserves a nod before Teixeira does).

While we are all Yankee fans, I implore you – readers of this blog – to put aside blind fandom for a little while and vote inline with actual output (defensive and offensive). Mark Teixeira does not deserve to sniff the All-Star Game this season—not the way he’s swinging the bat. Justin Morneau does, however. In fact, he deserves to start and should represent the AL and its fans at first. I’m voting for him and you should, too.

Photo by Getty Images

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Carl Pavano doing well for the Twins

Posted by Chris H. at 5:29 pm No Responses »
Jun 082010

Believe it or not, but, loathed former Yankee, Carl Pavano, is one of the more effective pitchers in the American League. On the season, he has posted a 4.11 ERA—that’s with an impressive 3.82 FIP and 3.74 xFIP, leaving his worth at a more than respectable mark of 1.2 WAR. Essentially, in Minnesota Pavano is doing the job Brian Cashman thought he could do when he brought him to New York for $39.95 million 6 years ago.

Pavano has been successful because, as evidenced by his miniscule home run per nine mark of 0.25 (the league average is 0.94), he keeps the ball in the park and, more importantly, on the ground. On the year to date, his ground ball percentage is 49.5%, which certainly isn’t the highest figure in the league, but it is more than respectable and, when you consider that the Twins have one of the best defenses in baseball (UZR/150 of 4.5), it’s also more than enough to be effective. With a strong defense at the ready, all Pavano has to do is put the ball in play, really, and, in fact, that’s all that he tries to do. He rarely walks anyone – Pavano’s 1.37 base on balls per nine is the second lowest BB/9 across starting pitchers in the AL – opting instead to pepper the zone with strikes. Basically, Pavano lets the opposition put the ball in play, and, in turn, he keeps the ball in the park and on the ground for his defense to handle when they can. These things, together, have equalled a recipe for success for both Pavano and the Twins.

This was the pitcher Brian Cashman wanted when he inked the fragile right-hander to one of the more notable contract albatrosses in the team’s history. It’s interesting – not fun, just fascinating – to watch from a far as Pavano makes good on his talent as a Twin. It would have been nice to see that when he was a Yankee.

Photo by the AP

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No Johnson for the rest year?

Posted by Chris H. at 7:37 pm 2 Responses »
Jun 042010

Via Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated, we learn that the Yankees are currently unsure as to whether or not Nick Johnson, signed in the offseason to be the team’s DH, will return this season. This, of course, isn’t a surprise when you consider Johnson’s checkered health history. Heyman goes on to add that the Yankees will search for another hitter as a result, presumably one with on-base skills similar to the fragile Johnson. Echoing a recent Jayson Stark report, Heyman also names David DeJesus, a rumored trade target for several years now, as a possibility.

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Yankees Need Jeter At Short

Posted by Chris H. at 10:34 pm 1 Response »
Jun 022010

Over at the beloved ESPN New York, writer Andrew Marchand ponders Derek Jeter’s defense on the season, and, related to that, his future with the Yankees. Essentially, Marchand views Jeter’s defense through a fairly negative lens – he has had a few issues going to his left, but his defense, on the whole, has not been terrible in my opinion (it has not been great, but it has been manageable, thus far) – and then goes on to wonder how his glove will influence the free agent negotiations he has with the Yankees come the end of 2010. Assuming the Yankees resign Jeter, Marchand also reflects upon a possible position change for the 35-year old shortstop. Marchand’s piece is basically the same article you have read over and over again regarding Jeter’s defense, especially prior to last season’s defensive revival, as it touches upon all of the common defensive themes.

In fact, Marchand seems to discuss everything except for the fact that, regardless of his diminished range, the Yankees need Derek Jeter at shortstop because they do not have a suitable internal option to replace him. And, as younger players continue to up their capital in baseball – older players are seemingly cast aside nowadays – while choosing to forego free agency dollars in order to sign lengthy multiyear contracts with the organizations that raised them, nor will it be easy to find a suitable replacement for The Captain via free agency or trade. Hence, the Yankees need Derek Jeter, not in left field, at DH, or in RF, but as their shortstop. As long as Jeter continues to hit and can be deemed “manageable” at short, the Yankees will need and want to continue playing him there. There is no one else waiting in the winds – sorry Eduardo Nunez fans – and the team does not have much else that they can do. Replacing someone means having a replacement, after all.

If Jeter signs a 4-year deal ($20 million per), as an agent in Marchand’s piece predicts, can you really see the Yankees having a capable replacement to takeover short during that period? Can you really see them asking Jeter to move around the diamond if he manages to hit inline with his career numbers? I just do not see that happening. Perhaps if the Yankees had a young prospect with a good bat that was also defensively superior the “move Jeter” idea would make sense. They do not have that, however, making the idea seem farfetched. Therefore, to quote Kevin Goldstein, “Jeter will likely play shortstop in New York as long as he wants to.”

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Nick's new approach

Posted by Chris H. at 6:43 pm 1 Response »
Jun 012010

The graph provided above outlines Nick Swisher’s plate discipline and contact rates on the season. As you can clearly see, in each respective category – from O-Swing percentage (percentage of pitches a better swings at outside of the strike zone) to O-Contact percentage (percentage of times a batter makes contact when swinging at pitches outside of the zone) – Swisher is performing “above” his career averages, an issue I have pointed to earlier in the year. He is swinging a lot more this season, and at everything, whether it is in the zone or not. Subsequently, he is making contact a lot more, as he has sacrificed some patience for a few hits.

The reasoning for this abrupt shift in hitting could be attributed to – and is more than likely related to – Swisher’s new batting stance. Over the winter, Swisher revamped his stance with the help of Kevin Long, and, ever since, he has been a different player. It is as if his new stance has provided him with an entirely different offensive approach. For instance, consider that, a season ago, Swisher’s walk rate was 16% and his career average was over 13%. Conversely, this season, with his new stance at work, Swisher has walked just 9.5% of the time—which will be his lowest mark to date if maintained. In the same vein, he is also seeing fewer pitches per plate appearance, as he normally sees around 4.25 P/PA, on average – he saw 4.27 P/PA in 2009 – but has seen only 4.09 P/PA in 2010. The explanation, it seems, is that he has taken to his new stance pretty well, and, therefore, is swinging more rather than walking, because he is having an easier time reacting to breaking pitches than he has in the past (slider, in particular). Pitch type value data suggests this, as well.

Though Swisher’s new stance is aiding him and his .317/.397/.563 line, luck has also lent him its hand. Swisher’s BABIP is currently .376, which is much higher than his .281 career average. Though we can assume that his BABIP might closer to .300 this year due to his altered batting stance, a .376 mark is just too high for a player like Swisher (it is largely the result of an other worldly .443 BABIP in May). Eventually, some of the hits will stop falling for him and his numbers will flatten out a bit (ZiPS projects him to bat .258/.364/.467 going forward, leaving him with a .277/.374/.498 line at the end of the year). Once that occurs, it will be interesting to see whether or not his plate patience picks up again or if it remains at its current levels.

Table/Screenshot via FanGraphs

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No decline for Derek

Posted by Chris H. at 7:00 pm 2 Responses »
May 312010

On May 11, I questioned whether or not Derek Jeter, a soon-to-be 36-year old, had finally begun to decline as a ballplayer. On the season, his offense seemed relatively weak – his .286/.324/.436 line was certainly indicative of that – and, at times, he looked about as bad as anyone at the plate. Rather than just connecting his problems to age without any sort of internal discussion, however, I did wonder, in the piece, if Jeter’s anemic output could be tied to a bit of bad luck. Perhaps a few balls just did not drop for the normally productive Yankees shortstop.

Looking back on it, it seems like that could very well be the case. On May 11, Jeter’s batting average on balls in play was .304, while his career BABIP was .359. In accordance with that number, Jeter’s BABIP and, subsequently, his triple slash line should have been higher. He was due for an increase in those areas and Jeter has definitely delivered, surging at the end of May. After going on to hit just .190/.264/.228 from May 1-19 – his bad luck seemingly plaguing him for most of the month – from May 20-29, Jeter has hit .415/.455/.585 with 4 doubles and a homer. His BABIP has increased from .304 to .326, and his triple slash line is now a more respectable .297/.340/.425. While we might see this as a bit of good luck, which it is, it is also signifies a statistical correction. Jeter’s unlucky stretch was bound to pass and he was due to hit the cover off of the ball in order to make up for it. We are seeing that now.

If age is not a big factor, then this is how we can view the situation. In my May 11 post, I wondered if age, rather than luck, was the reason Jeter’s hits were not falling (thus, the low BABIP). I was concerned that Jeter, who will turn 36-years old next month, had entered his decline (a fair thought). Jeter seems to be finding his groove, however, so perhaps that is not the case and what we saw earlier in the month (and a bit in April) was just an unlucky stretch. He is currently in the midst of a hitting streak and has improved his walk rate significantly, from 3% in April to 6.6% in May, which is another good sign. Jeter obviously won’t go on to hit .415/.455/.585 for the rest of the season, but, as his numbers continue to unfold, citing an age-related decline seems like it was a little premature on my part.

Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images

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No room/need for Oswalt

Posted by Chris H. at 5:01 pm 4 Responses »
May 312010

As most of you know by now, Roy Oswalt, Houston’s reliable right-hander, might be up for grabs as the Astros continue to sputter through another lost season. As a result of their of their terrible losing record, the loyal Oswalt reportedly requested a trade about a week ago in the hopes that he could ultimately join a contendor. However, do not expect the Yankees to enter the bidding for the 32-year old’s services.

Although Oswalt is a dependable workhorse, logging 200-plus innings on a seemingly regular basis, and despite his proven track record as one of the most effective pitchers in the game – he owns a 3.35 career FIP and has posted a 3.20 FIP over 69 innings this year – the Yankees simply do not have any room for him in their rotation. “We have five starters we like,” responded “one Yankees person” to Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman last week, when asked about the team’s interest in Oswalt. Perhaps if Phil Hughes were not proving his mettle this season, struggling like he has in the past, the Yankees might have been singing a different tune. That has not been the case, though. In fact, outside of Javier Vazquez, who can certainly turn things around this year (he was on the right rack prior to his latest effort), the team’s starting staff has been very strong. Hence, there is no real need to bring Oswalt on board. Oswalt also has a rather unsightly contract, paying him at least $33M from 2010-2012. I doubt Hal Steinbrenner, the financially prudent son, would like to take on such a commitment.

Inline with the Oswalt case outlined above, I also doubt the Yankees will acquire any brand-name starters this season. Seattle’s Cliff Lee is included in that category, of course, as he could become available later on. According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees will likely pursue him via free agency, instead – just as they did with CC Sabathia – when rotation spots are actually available (Javier Vazquez will depart, Andy Pettitte could retire). As of right now, though, in 2010, the need for starting pitching just isn’t there and, barring a huge injury, it won’t be there.

Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

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Yanks bring back Chad Gaudin

Posted by Chris H. at 5:12 pm No Responses »
May 262010

How inevitable was this move? The Yankees have re-signed right-hander Chad Gaudin, who was recently released by the A’s, adding him to their bullpen as a long reliever. This is likely a reaction to the loss of Alfredo Aceves, as the reliever reaggravated a back injury yesterday that could ultimately lead to surgery. Presumably, Sergio Mitre will take over Aceves’ role in the bullpen with Gaudin supplanting Mitre. To be honest, while many are worried about the loss of Aceves, I don’t see the concern, at least not to the degree in which it is being discussed. While I get that he was a valuable piece to the bullpen last season, I suspect that Mitre could be as good in the same role. Then, Gaudin simply fills in as the long man/sixth starter. This, in my opinion, is not a huge problem, really.

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