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Feb 112011

On the heels of the Star-Tribune report that Minnesota Twins ace Francisco Liriano could be available, loads of analysis poured in from every angle. Two pieces really caught my attention, one from Dave Cameron of Fangraphs and another from our buddy Jason Rosenberg’s IATMS site from writer Mark Smith. Here’s the highlights, first up is Mark Smith:

The question now becomes what he’s worth, and I’m afraid I won’t be able to avoid the question. At 9-10 wins over the next few seasons, Liriano will be worth about $50 million dollars, and after we subtract the $4.3 million salary for 2011 and possible $9 million for 2012, we are left with $37 million dollars of surplus value. According to Victor Wang, Jesus Montero ($36.5 million value as a Top 10 hitter) would be an equal swap for two years of Liriano’s services. If the Twins want pitching in return (probable), Manny Banuelos ($15.9 million as Top 11-25 pitcher) and Dellin Betances or Andrew Brackman ($12.1 million as a Top 51-75 pitcher—I’m probably being a little generous there, though not insane) would only be a start with about $7 million left. I realize that will probably start a riot around here, but pitchers are inherently risky because of injury. Yankees prospects are not immune. Another Grade B prospect or a couple C prospects would be necessary to complete the deal. Luckily, the perception of Liriano’s health and the Twins’ willingness to deal him might decrease some of the value needed to bring Liriano to the Big Apple.

As we discussed yesterday, Montero’s not a match unless you get a 3rd team involved. The Twins will want pitching in return, and may see the Killer B’s as guys who could help them out of the bullpen this year. So according to Mark’s numbers, we’re looking at TWO of the Killer B’s plus a B-level positional prospect in an area of need for the Twins. Figure David Adams or Eduardo Nunez.

Next up is Dave Cameron of Fangraphs, who has a very different take:

That leaves Marcum as the closest comparison to Liriano. Like Liriano, Marcum has a history of injury problems but returned to pitch at a high level last year. In fact, their 2010 innings pitched and ERA totals are nearly identical, and this showed in their 2011 contracts – Marcum avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $3.95 million deal, while Liriano got $4.3 million. While Marcum doesn’t throw as hard, they both have knockout secondary pitches which they lean heavily upon.

In return for Marcum, the Blue Jays acquired Brett Lawrie, who Keith Law recently rated as the 37th best prospect in baseball. Position prospects in that range are generally worth about $20-$25 million in value, based on Victor Wang’s research. While the Twins could likely argue that Liriano should be valued at a higher rate than Marcum (teams pay a premium for velocity and strikeouts, both areas where Liriano has a significant edge), I think they’d have a tough time getting significantly more than what Toronto received when they moved a similarly valued pitcher.

In other words, Twins fans can probably stop dreaming of someone like Jesus Montero, as the Yankees would likely balk at that asking price. But if they made Liriano available, the Yankees would be the most obvious suitor, and would likely pay a higher price than any other team. Perhaps they’d be willing to part with Manny Banuelos, who Law ranks as one of the game’s best pitching prospects? That might be enough to satisfy the perceived differences between Liriano and Marcum, but would it be a large enough premium to justify improving one of the Twins main rivals for the American League pennant?

Cameron thinks the top tier prospects won’t be required to get a deal like this done, but two obvious quesions emerge. Will it be worth it for the Twins to deal him? And as Cameron asks, what sort of premium would the Yanks have to pay as a major obstacle to the Twins post season aspirations?

If the Twins weren’t serious contenders for their division and in something of a rebuilding phase, it would make more sense to deal with the Yanks. But strengthening a potential October rival is something that’s got to be hard to sell to your fan base. A deal would have to fill immediate needs with MLB ready talent, so they can argue making the move improves their chances for 2011 while dealing from a position of excess. They need lots of bullpen help, and could use a middle infielder as well. As I discussed yesterday, the Yanks match up well and have good prospects in both areas. The question could come down to how much will Bill Smith want the Yanks to overpay, and how far will Brian Cashman be willing to go. Don’t forget that Bill Smith doesn’t need to make this deal, while Cashman does. Smith is in the driver’s seat here.

I have to figure that Mark Smith’s price tag is the one for the Yankees, while Cameron’s will be the price tag for a NL team. Would you make that first deal? Montero straight up or two Killer B’s+? I know many fans have concerns about Liriano’s health, but having come back fully from TJ last year I feel pretty confident in him going forward. If I’m Brian Cashman, I look to do a Montero-centered deal with a 3rd team involved. Catching is an area of great depth for the Yanks, and high ceiling pitching prospects are the types the Yanks need to hang on to. I doubt anything happens this spring, but if the Yanks feel Russel Martin is back to the player he was a few years ago, dealing Montero will be much easier to swallow.

What do you think? How far would you go for Liriano?

37 Responses to “What’s Liriano’s price tag?”

  1. No on Montero. Hitting prospects of that quality are rare. If you trade pitchers, Liriano is young enough to replace them in your plans anyhow.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    Steve S. Reply:

    I think Liriano qualifies as a high end starter, he was #2 in all of baseball in xFIP last year. The question will be how heavily you weight his health history. I feel pretty confident he’s all the way back from TJ, and see little else to be concerned about. But the Yanks won’t be able to buy low here. Smith will just hang onto him.

    I feel good about his health going forward, since I think it was all TJ related and is behind him now. But I will add this caveat. Teams always know their pitchers better than anyone else, so there’s an element of uncertainly there. The innings just aren’t there, and even with a pre-deal physical some things don’t show up on MRIs. Damaso Marte had shoulder issues all of last year and kept coming up clean, only after multiple comeback attempts did something finally show up on an MRI. The lack of innings the past 3 years argues strongest for passing on the deal.  (Quote)

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    T.O. Chris Reply:

    Liriano reies on his slider more than any other pitcher in baseball how can you ever assume his health problems are behind him when he throws one of the most dangerous pitches to the elbow one can think of and probably the same pitch requiring his first TJ surgery. You can require a second TJ surgery in your career and given how long it took to bounce back last time the risk far too high for Montero.

    I usually agree with you Steve but I wouldn’t give anything more for Liriano than Gardner, Brackman, Warren and Adams, trading Montero is crazy, when you consider they Mauer and Morneau it also doesn’t make anysense because he is a DH or at best a RFer for them and of less value than to us having him at C.

    Would they do that deal? Probably not but I feel it’s fair value considering the health risk and the fact Gardner is proven at the major league level and could add GG CF defense and 40+ steals a year leading off.

    Montero is too special for anyone not more than elit, Felix Hernandez, Ubaldo Jiminez and Josh Johnson (JJ and Felix are the best of the best young guns and Ubaldo’s stuff can’t be passed) are the only 3 pitchers in baseball I would trade Jesus for and I’m hoping the FO follows that guidline. I think Manny Banuelos has similar upside (although not as high he has a more sure floor than almost any pitching prospect we’ve seen come through) to Liriano and Betances has an upside of close to that as an ace with a big body and stuff so I would look to hold on to them as well in this deal. Id rather sign him in free agency if he can show consistency in that time period, at least he would have a bigger body of work to look at then.  (Quote)

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  2. No sir. Keep Montero for ourselves unless we’re getting a legit ace. Liriano’s a “near-ace” because of his checkered health history.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    Steve S. Reply:

    When healthy, he’s no doubt an ace. As I said above, it comes down to how confident you are in his health going forward. The fact that the Twins are willing to deal him, who are loaded with middle of the rotation types and need a true ‘Ace’, has to raise an eyebrow or two.  (Quote)

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    T.O. Chris Reply:

    He has never pitched 200 innings so while he has true ace potential I don’t think you can say he currently is an ace despite the numbers last year because he has only put up those types of numbers twice in 5 years (121 IP, 191.2 IP) and doesn’t have a 200 inning season to boot.  (Quote)

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  3. No Montero. By no means should Montero be traded for some guys like Liriano. One of the Killer B’s + Nunez + Adams+ D-rob.Maybe not enough, but i don’t want lose too much for a guy with elbow and shoulder issues.  (Quote)

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  4. The twins will ask for a package like Banuelos and Joba, or Banuelos, nunez and another arm like Phelps prehaps. the yankees will have to part with Banuelos to get Liriano but it makes sence. At Banuelos best he mmost likley wont have the celing Liriano does.  (Quote)

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  5. Two killer Bs would be a lot. If the Twins get Banuelos, which they should, I suppose each side could round out the deal with low-level prospects.

    But if the Twins want basically the same haul they got for Santana, I think the package would be: Melky Mesa (Carlos Gomez), David Phelps (Philip Humber), DJ Mitchell (Kevin Mulvey) and Jose Ramirez (Deolis Guerra).  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    splimit Reply:

    Jose Ramirez is better than Deolis Guerra in fact  (Quote)

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    Damian Reply:

    Don’t doubt that at all, but they would both be A-ball pitchers at the time of the trade. The proposal was mainly a joke, though. If the Yankees could get Liriano for that, it’d be a flat-out miracle.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    splimit Reply:

    i am joking also, however i like Jose Ramirez.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    Steve S. Reply:

    If you were Bill Smith, would you use that deal as a guideline? The Twins got killed on that deal.  (Quote)

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    Craig Reply:

    Isn’t Brett Gardner a better representation of Carlos Gomez than Melky Mesa would be?  (Quote)

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  6. Liriano is not an ace – aces are not judged by performance alone – but by their consistent, dependable ability to dominate not sporadically (as Liriano has done) but regularly. They don’t have to throw shutouts every time out but they need to 1) Pitch every fifth day (durability) 2) Keep their team “in the game” every fifth day (everyone throws a stinker now and again, you know what I mean- 3/4 quality starts) 3) Throw their best in pressure situations. Liriano hasn’t shown me any of this- he hasn’t been healthy/durable, has not consistently shut down even mediocre teams, and has shown a tendency to get flustered in high pressure situations. His delivery is described as “violent” and his propensity to fall in love with his hard slider make me wary of future injury to his surgically repaired elbow.
    I would definitely like Liriano at the right price, but not for Montero, and not for Banuelos (who may develop into Liriano at a lower price anyhow).  (Quote)

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  7. I would prefer not to trade any of our Big 3 or Montero, but Liriano is a stud.

    I doubt this is even close, but I wonder about a Gardner/Joba/Phelps type deal (even though idk who would replace Gardner).  (Quote)

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  8. How about a real blockbuster with Gardner, 2 killer Bs & Adams to the Twins for Liriano & Denard Span  (Quote)

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  9. If they’d go for a package led by one of Brackman, Betances or Gardner, I could probably be convinced to do it. Is that a fair offer? Probably not but I just don’t like the idea of acquiring Liriano right now that much to be willing to part with Montero or Banuelos.

    (1) I think the injury concerns are legitimate. He hasn’t had two back to back strong years in the majors yet, has already had TJ surgery, had shoulder issues in the minors, and has a violent pitching delivery.
    (2) Even if he stays healthy and continues to have elite stuff, he’s not a horse who pitches deep into games, eats a ton of innings, and is strong at the end of the year. Maybe he could get there, but I have doubts about how smart it would be to even push him toward that given the injury concerns.
    (3) Given potential doubts about AJ and Hughes (I’m probably more concerned than most here that the innings jump will hurt Hughes and that the league will catch up to him if he doesn’t improve his secondary pitches), Liriano might not be enough of a difference maker. I’d hate to trade Montero or Banuelos and still not make it deep into the playoffs.

    If he is available at the trade deadline and pitching well and the Yankees are right in the thick of it, I might be more willing to trade Montero or Banuelos but for now I’d pass if that was the cost.  (Quote)

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    T.O. Chris Reply:

    Why trade Montero in the middle of the season if you won’t now? I agree he’s untouchable I just don’t see what could change that mid season, even if we are in the thick trading Montero hurts our lineup and our future he needs to be kept all costs unless Josh Johnson, Ubaldo or Felix become available and they won’t.

    Besides if he is pitching well mid season I think the Twins will be in it and if they are then he either won’t be available at all or he’ll cost even more, I believe this to be a situation where we either trade for him now or we look somewhere else later on.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    bg90027 Reply:

    I’m not for trading Montero for him in any case. I have serious injury concerns about him that being healthy and very effective over the 1st half of the season would at least help me overcome. And more importantly, I’d like to see how AJ and Hughes look in the first half. If Hughes regresses and/or AJ continues to stink and/or A-Rod/Jeter don’t improve and/or another key player comes down with a major injury, they aren’t a WS contender with Liriano. I don’t like the idea of trading Montero or Banuelos to begin with, I like it less when I’m not sure if makes them a contendor anyway.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

  10. I think it makes more sense to trade Montero because I have more uncertainty about Montero’s position than I do about Liriano’s health. If Montero can’t catch then he has no spot on this team. DH and 1B are locked up for 50 mill and 6 years. If you can do Montero for Liriano Straight up I pull that trigger given Liriano’s 2010, age, lefty, and looks good after already having the surgery. The way this offseason has unfolded I keep my pitchers so we don’t have to resort to offering 7 years to 32-year-olds.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    T.O. Chris Reply:

    Montero certainly has a spot on this team with the bat he brings to the table, I think the idea that we would just somehow not be smart enough to get a .300 and 30 HR bat in the lineup ludicrous. Montero’s defense has already been talked about enough to know he has improved and from his own words we know he wants to stay behind the plate, if he just puts the effort into it he should be able to play 50 games a year minimum at catcher and he could be a full fledged starting catcher as long as he plays just below average defense.

    Alex is still playing 3rd and there is no way I believe he becomes a DH until minimum 3 years from now by that time you will have figured out how to split Montero’s time between the field and DH if you even have to, it’s not worth trading that kind of bat just because he may have be a DH, especially when everyone reports he is doing much better behind the plate.  (Quote)

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    Damian Reply:

    I think that’s a reasonable stance to take on the relative prospects of Montero and Liriano for the Yankees. I disagree, though, because I think that while Montero is still young and cheap he will be able to either catch well enough or DH, at least for a few years before ARod needs the spot permanently.  (Quote)

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    Steve S. Reply:

    I find it amusing when people don’t consider how a player fits on your team long term, or the organizational depth chart at a position. That’s the whole reason why teams make trades in the first place.

    Cash has already dangled Montero twice in prospective deals. Brian Cashman offered Montero+ for TWO months of Cliff Lee. 2 months. The notion that he’s untouchable for an ace pitcher under team control for 2 or 3 years when the Yanks have a great need for pitching is absurd.

    I understand concerns about Liriano’s health, and how that could make a smart fan think they should get a discount for his services. But again, at his low contract price tag there will be much demand for him, and Smith will prefer to send him elsewhere. If you want him, its going to cost you. All of the low ball offers are fans are making here are a waste of time IMO. Smith will either keep him or send him elsewhere.  (Quote)

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    Adam Bauer Reply:

    I couldn’t agree more, in a general sense you want to keep a can’t miss bat like Montero’s. My opinions aside, If Cashman gets a Liriano type pitcher offer for him Cashman has shown the willingness to deal him. The DH market is also very buyer friendly right now, unlike the ttarting pitching market.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    T.O. Chris Reply:

    By that logic we would have been better off trading Montero already, signing Dunn to DH and tell Posada to split time at C off the or retire, at least at that point you have 40+ HRs a year at DH for four years and he leaves when Alex needs to move off 3rd.

    To trade Montero for some “young stud under team control for 2 or 3 years” is one thing but Liriano isn’t under team control for 2 or 3 years and he hasn’t proven himself a “stud” at this point with his inconsitency. He is young so you get 1 of 3 but that isn’t enough for Montero and trying to compare Liriano to Lee is laughable there in different leagues as far as pitchers are concerned.

    Montero isn’t untradeable but he isn’t available for someone like Liriano who relies so heavily on the slider, has injury concerns and has had 2 good seasons in 5 with 0 years of 200 IP. To trade a bat so Vaunted as Jesus’ can only be done for someone in the mold of Josh johnson or Felix Hernandez a no doubt, young, built ace who can take over for CC if he opts out. To act like you just trade Jesus because has no spot long term is a mistake in my opinion and it over values depth and flirts with predicitng the future which usualy bites you in this sport.  (Quote)

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  11. His average ERA+ over the last 3 years is 109. He had one great season in his career (5 years ago) and has injury concerns.
    The Yankees have several solid or better pitching prospects just around the bend, with a few ready next spring and one or two possible for later this year.
    The Twins (and the Mariners) have shown that they still believe the Yankees should pay more than other teams in trades.
    Why would the Yankees trade a top ten prospect for this guy?  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    T.O. Chris Reply:

    I think you should look deeper into the numbers on his 2006 season because I think he had as good if not a better year this past season, if anything he had one great but shortened season (4.1 WAR, 2.55 FIP in 121 IP) 5 years ago and one great season (6 WAR, 2.66 FIP, 191.2 IP) last year, in fact I would say the only thing holding him back from being a true ace is the face that he has never pitched 200 innings in a season and he has only had 2 seasons like this in 5 but he’s still young (27) and he is fully recovered from TJ. He still dominates with a slider and throws it more than almost any pitcher in baseball (and for good reason) so there is still injury concern and the fact that he can’t be treated like an ace I agree he isn’t worth a top 10 player, however let’s not act like he is some scrub who had 1 good season 5 years ago when he had a tremendous line last year.

    2010- 6.0 WAR, 191.2 IP, 9.44 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 2.66 FIP, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 0.42 HR/9, .331 BABIP, 83.1 LOB%, 6.3 HR/FB, 53.6 GB%

    2006- 4.1 WAR, 121 IP, 10.76 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 2.55 FIP, 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 0.67 HR/9, .279 BABIP, 73.2 LOB%, 13.2 HR/FB, 55.3 GB%

    He maintaid similar numbers in K/9, BB/9, and FIP but he did so in 70 more innings and with a BABIP of .331 as opposed to his ridiculously low .279 in 2006, he was also able to have a smalller HR/9 even with slightly lower GB% (although that could be Target helping that out). He was clearly luckier in 2006 and played in less games with many less innings, it’s debatable but I say 2010 was a better season overall, however both are very very good.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    bg90027 Reply:

    I agree that he was great last year. I would point out though that his stuff is not as good as it was in 2006 though. He’s lost some velocity. Also, I think Target did help him. He’s always had big Home/Road splits but last year his Road ERA was 4.25, his Road WHIP was 1.39 and his k/BB dropped.  (Quote)

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  12. Definite “no” on giving up Montero, straight up or as part of a package.

    I also think any combination of 2 of the 3 Killer B’s is too much to give up for a guy with spotty healthy history and a not-so-long track record of “big time” success.

    If it were me, I would offer Betances first. ManBan has to be off the table along with Montero. But the Twins need bullpen help and probably some middle infield help, so a package of Betances, Joba, and Nunez should at least get the conversation started, no?  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    T.O. Chris Reply:

    Joba has little trade value at this point and I don’t believe there is anyway he can be involved in a 3 for 1 deal and the trade be accepted, he isn’t going to slide into a closer role for anyone right away and with his starting reputation tarnished you can’t trade him as anything but a reliever (lower value than Joba the starter) so therefore I think we would need to offer 4 players to fill out the deal.

    Also I don’t think there is enough upside in the deal when you consider some scouts think that Betances will ultimately end up in the pen, I would assume that they would want some more high end talent like a Banuelos (who I agree should be close to off limits as it gets) or Gardner added into the deal to make up for the fact that they may be trading an ace for 2 reliever and a backup SS since Nunez doesn’t neccesarily project as a starter.

    I’d add Brackman to the deal as a start but at the same time I personally want us to keep Betances, I believe keeping Betances, Banuelos and Montero should be do-able from a value perspective (with Liriano’s injury history) but the Twins wil probably want us to overpay both because we are the Yankees (and everyone wants us to over pay) and because we have knocked them out like 3 straight years.

    A possible combination of our 2 proposals may be enticing if you take Betances and Nunez from your deal and add Gardner and Warren but I’d still prefer to keep Betances over Brackman since he has more upside, but then that is why the Twins would probably prefer him as well.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    The Captain Reply:

    I think the fact fact that Betances may project better as a reliever works in the Yankees’ favor here, though. The Twins lost a lot out of their ‘pen from last season so they’re looking for help there. For that reason alone I included Joba in the offer because he fits a need for them and still has value as a reliever.

    As far as Betances, the questions about where he will eventually end up are why I would be willing to deal him. If the Twins like him, they can do whatever they want with him. And the fact that Liriano would be on the block because they already have a lot of starters helps the Yanks to be able to keep ManBan off the table.

    I could see Betances, Warren, and Nunez getting it done. I wouldn’t want to do a 4-for-1 for Liriano, though. And if you trade Gardner, who’s playing LF in 2011? Do you think Jones can stay healthy enough to be an everyday player?  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    T.O. Chris Reply:

    Betances has 2 plus pitches (Fastball, Curveball) and his changeup is rapidly developing and much more so than say Brackman, I don’t think he projects better in the pen he certainly has the repetoire to pitch in a rotation I think it’s simple health concerns and worry over repeating mechanics at 6’8 that have people mentioning pen but all the scouts are rotation first I was simply stating when looking worst case they may look at that deal and say at the end of the day we may have 2 relievers and a backup SS and the value of relievers simply can’t match a 27 year old potential ace.

    The Twins have starting pitching but it doesn’t mean they will Trade Liriano for peanuts they still need a long term ace and looking for a 19 year old lefty could be exactly what they are thinking and if I were the Twins I would be looking for Montero or Banuelos 1 unfortunatley.

    I don’t see those 3 alone getting it done, again it’s just not enough overall talent to bring in a guy with Liriano’s talent and potential you have a maybe starter maybe reliever, possible bench SS and a 3-5 projected starter there needs to be more meat which is why I throw in Gardner.

    I wouldn’t want to deal Brett but if it means receiving Liriano, keeping Montero and Banuelos then I would do it, obviously this does open a hole in the OF and we would have to address the longterm solution to it with a trade or free agency but getting talent costs talent and Gardner simply doesn’t have the total potential value Liriano does.

    Giving up Gardner would make me want to keep Betances and give up Brackman (keep the 2 best upsides of the 3) and you can argue that giving up a ML leadoff man can but you Betances for Brackman.

    Jones isn’t ideal as a starter but he brings to the table 20 HRs and capable corner D so he would probably be passable for this season and maybe even a Melky Mesa or Colin Curtis could add value in the middle of the season if a cheap trade doesn’t turn up at some point.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

  13. Getting Liriano would hurt. But it won’t come at the cost of losing Montero. That’s the biggie and the main reason i’d advocate pursuing Liriano.

    Minny’s GM will have to think long and hard if offered Joba, Banuelos, and Betances. Essentially, Minny gets two high-end SP prospects, one of which is a near unanimous top 20 prospect, and then, a RP who could be a SP option down the road. There’s no need for Minny to return Joba to a SP role, but the option wouldn’t be ridiculous.

    Bc Betances has been hurt so often, i can see Minny balking at 3 pieces. I’d then remove Betances, and be willing to replace him with one of Warren or Noesi.

    I won’t give up a 4th piece.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

    T.O. Chris Reply:

    Id much rather give up 4 peices and keep Banuelos and I doubt they want Joba and Betances considering that Betances is now a much higher upside Chamberlain who hasn’t been tarnished in the public eye yet.

    If we have to add Joba then I’d rather try Warren, Adams/Nunez, Betances/Brackman and Joba but even then I think you might be falling short depending on what they think of Joba.

    One question though if you offered Betances, Banuelos and Joba and they said no why go any further? Warren, Joba and Banuelos is a worse package so if they turn down the first they won’t even listen to the weaker package.  (Quote)

    [Reply To This Comment]

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