Whenever discussing the Yankee farm system, talk quickly gravitates to the Killer B’s. Manny Banuelos has been ranked at the head of the pack by most outlets, due to his age, poise, performance and handedness. Dellin ranks 2nd on most lists, with one notable exception. Yesterday, in his must-read recap of the Yankee farm system Mike Axisa ranked Andrew Brackman ahead of Dellin, despite a wide gap between the two in terms of performance. His main reason for the ranking is an oft-repeated tag that gets applied to Dellin, that he just can’t seem to stay healthy.
But is this true? Is his health history really that different than other Yankee prospects who don’t carry the ‘injury prone’ tag? Let’s compare Dellin’s track record and Andrew Brackman and see if this is justified. First, here’s Dellin’s minor league history:
Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB 2006 18 Yankees GULF Rk NYY 0 1 .000 1.16 7 7 0 0 0 0 23.1 14 5 3 1 7 27 1 1 2 90 0.900 5.4 0.4 2.7 10.4 3.86 2007 19 StatenIsland NYPL A- NYY 1 2 .333 3.60 6 6 0 0 0 0 25.0 24 11 10 0 17 29 2 1 3 113 1.640 8.6 0.0 6.1 10.4 1.71 2008 20 2 Teams 2 Lgs A-Rk NYY 9 5 .643 3.92 25 24 0 0 0 0 121.2 100 64 53 9 62 0 141 11 3 11 529 1.332 7.4 0.7 4.6 10.4 2.27 2009 21 Tampa FLOR A+ NYY 2 5 .286 5.48 11 11 0 0 0 0 44.1 48 29 27 2 27 0 44 2 0 3 206 1.692 9.7 0.4 5.5 8.9 1.63 2010 22 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+-AA NYY 8 1 .889 2.11 17 17 0 0 0 0 85.1 53 25 20 4 22 0 108 4 0 6 333 0.879 5.6 0.4 2.3 11.4 4.91 5 Seasons 5 Seasons 5 Seasons 20 14 .588 3.39 66 65 0 0 0 0 299.2 239 134 113 16 135 0 349 20 5 25 1271 1.248 7.2 0.5 4.1 10.5 2.59
Next, let’s look at Andrew Brackman’s track record in pro ball, including his College days. Here it is:
| Year | Team | Lg | Age | Lvl | Org | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | SHO | GF | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | WP | WHIP | H9 | HR9 | BB9 | SO9 | ||||||||||||
| 2005 | NC State | NCAA | 19 | NCAA | - | 4 | 0 | 2.09 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43.0 | 32 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 18 | 43 | 3 | 1.16 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||
| 2006 | NC State | NCAA | 20 | NCAA | - | 1 | 3 | 6.35 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28.1 | 37 | 25 | 20 | 2 | 19 | 32 | 7 | 1.98 | 11.8 | 0.6 | 6.0 | 10.2 | ||||||||||||
| 2007 | NC State | NCAA | 21 | NCAA | - | 6 | 4 | 3.81 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 78.0 | 78 | 41 | 33 | 7 | 37 | 74 | 12 | 1.47 | 9.0 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||
| 2009 | Charleston (Sc) | SAL | 23 | A | nyy | 2 | 12 | 5.91 | 29 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 106.2 | 106 | 79 | 70 | 8 | 76 | 103 | 26 | 1.71 | 8.9 | 0.7 | 6.4 | 8.7 | ||||||||||||
| 2010 | Tampa | FSL | 24 | A+ | nyy | 5 | 4 | 5.10 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60.0 | 67 | 38 | 34 | 5 | 9 | 56 | 6 | 1.27 | 10.1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 8.4 | ||||||||||||
| Trenton | East | 24 | AA | nyy | 5 | 7 | 3.01 | 15 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 80.2 | 77 | 38 | 27 | 3 | 30 | 70 | 6 | 1.33 | 8.6 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 7.8 | |||||||||||||
| Minor League Totals | 12 | 23 | 4.77 | 56 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 247 | 250 | 155 | 131 | 16 | 115 | 229 | 38 | 1.48 | 9.10 | 0.58 | 4.18 | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||
Why does Brackman escape the “injury prone” tag, yet it gets applied to Dellin? Brackman had a much more severe elbow injury (reconstructive/TJ) than Betances (ligament enhancement). Andrew got a late start in baseball, but looking at his first 5 seasons in professional baseball regardless of age he has logged less innings (247 IP) than Dellin (299 IP) did in his initial five. Not only has Dellin logged more innings, but he’s done so at a younger age. Further, he has dominated the minors in a way that Andrew Brackman has yet to do. It is encouraging to see Brackman cross the 140 inning threshold, but the only reason why Betances hasn’t done so was the timing of his injury. Dellin missed parts of two seasons with his elbow injury, while Brackman had TJ surgery immediately after signing with the Yanks and missed the entire 2008 campaign.
One final misconception needs to be cleared up about Dellin Betances. From a BP interview last year:
DL: To close, is there anything you’d like people to know about you?
DB: Just one thing: Everybody thinks I was born in Brooklyn, but I was actually born in Washington Heights—my first home. Then I moved to the lower East Side, to downtown Manhattan, so the lower East Side is my home. You’re probably the first one who knows that. I mean, I love Brooklyn. I played in Brooklyn from age 13, I went to high school in Brooklyn, so it’s like my second home, but the lower East Side is where I started playing baseball. That is one thing that everybody should know.
He’s from Manhattan, not Brooklyn.
Brackman appears to have fully recovered from his elbow surgery and even if he’s closer to being a finished product than Betances that 140 IP mark carries serious weight. Betances might have put together the most dominant 85 inning season from a starter in all the minors, but the injuries are frustrating and do take some shine off projection.
Betances might possess the highest projection of the killer-Bs, but two consecutive injury-shortened seasons are scary. He’s the guy i’m most afraid to part with in a trade, but he’s also the “bust” candidate of the three. Reggie C.(Quote)
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Steve S. Reply:
February 12th, 2011 at 4:59 pm
Again, the injury affected two seasons simply due to the timing of when it occurred. It was one injury with a year long recovery period, not two separate injuries. Steve S.(Quote)
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It is a bit frustrating how Banuelos could be deemed as untouchable over Dellin because of a few independent injuries. Man is going to be a beast in this league Gerrardo(Quote)
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AndrewYF Reply:
February 12th, 2011 at 3:45 pm
Banuelos is a lefty, is 3 years younger with the same amount of progress as Betances, and reportedly has 2 usable off-speed pitches rather than just one. Oh, and he has never had an arm problem in his career. Sorry, but once you have major arm surgery, you’re a risk. That’s all there is to it.
I don’t see why he wouldn’t be rated much higher. AndrewYF(Quote)
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Joey Reply:
February 18th, 2011 at 9:14 pm
Banuelos is indeed a lefty, a 155 lbs lefty that stands 5’10″. This is his only limiting factor. I figure a guy like that can give you a couple decent seasons, similar to Scott Kazmir as a starter or Franky Rodriguez out of the pen. In fact, with that frame I would bet that he runs into arm trouble sooner than Kazmir.
Brackman- 25yrs old, 6’10″ 240- TJ reconstructive surgery, probably goes to AAA unless he’s fixed his shaky control, which was still an issue despite being dominant otherwise at AA. His walks will probably always be a problem despite the right-handed RJ comparisons, but he’s probably a #3 with potential for more.
Betances- 23 years old, 6’8′ SOLID 270- Ligament reinforcement surgery, which a guy named Mariano Rivera had as well- for the guy who commented on being injury prone because of one injury. Betances probably pitches at AA, which is where the high end talent (no AAAA players) is anyways unless someone in Scranton gets hurt. Regardless he is the highest ceiling in the Yankees minor league org as far as pitching is concerned, and for that matter, probably all of minor league baseball. If it weren’t for the Vandy scholarship offer (sign-ability case to the tenth power) there’s no way he goes in the 8th round to the Yankees in 06′. Had he gone to Vandy, he’d probably have been talked about like a David Price #1 pick had he been healthy.
Banuelos- 19 years old, 5’10″ 155 lbs- no injuries yet? No kidding. How many innings has he logged? Sure, he’s advanced for his age, but the kid just graduated high school. In my eyes, he’s just over half a Betances. His 95+ velocity is not going to hold up on that frame. If I was Cashman I’d be looking into what I could get for a package of Joba, Banuelos and Romine come July. Specifically I’d be on the phone with the Cardinals GM inquiring about Chris Carpenter, who thanks to Pujols probably ends up on the block if given his FA status in 2012. Joey(Quote)
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Steve S. Reply:
February 12th, 2011 at 4:54 pm
Rating Banuelos ahead of Dellin doesn’t bother me. Rating Brackman ahead does. Andrew’s getting old to be all about projection. Steve S.(Quote)
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Reggie C. Reply:
February 12th, 2011 at 5:28 pm
I think age does play a role in Brackman’s promotion to AAA (is that confirmed, btw?). Fifteen AA starts isn’t alot so if Brackman were a younger guy he’d likely be kept at AA for another 10 starts or so to start the season. That said, aside from the BB rate in AA, there wasn’t much drop off. The big guy doesn’t give up many homers and hopefully wont issue too many BBs.
Projecting Brackman as a mid-rotation starter looks like a solid bet right now. Brackman’s projection isn’t “high”, but we’ve missed out on Lee, Greinke, and Haren. This team can absolutely use a Brackman, and we’ll definitely see him before Banuelos or Betances. Reggie C.(Quote)
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Brackman finished the season strongly with only 3 earned runs over his last 38 innings. DW(Quote)
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Steve S. Reply:
February 12th, 2011 at 7:14 pm
Apply some common sense to those stats. The later you go into the minor league season, the less advanced the competition you see due to call ups, promotions, etc. Small samples are always shaky, even more so when dealing with the minors. Steve S.(Quote)
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Damian Reply:
February 12th, 2011 at 7:56 pm
True, but for that same reason, the success that Betances and Banuelos had in brief AA stints should be similarly discounted. And in any case it’s certainly an encouraging sign no matter what, right? At the very least it shows he didn’t tire from innings 102 through 140. Damian(Quote)
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I think it’s not that people call Betances injury prone and not Brackman, but that people call both of them injury prone. Jerry In Queens(Quote)
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Brackman had one injury, serious, but usually without lasting consequences. Betances, I believe, has had other injuries. Davor(Quote)
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Hey all … take a look at this frame-by-frame of Betances from this spring, just a day old or so. Judge for yourself if his windup and delivery makes him seem “injury-prone”.
http://www.bronxbrasstacks.com/2011/02/16/dellin-betances-frame-by-frame/ Ryan(Quote)
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1. Not a whole lot of guys get called up from AA to the majors.
2. Most major call-ups were made by June (Posey,
3. Betances, Brackman, Montero and I think Banuelos were called up at the end of the season themselves. Joey(Quote)
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