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Feb 112011

This is the exciting time of year when many respected prospect raters (and plenty of intelligent amateurs) release their preseason top 100 lists.  The Yankee farm system had a strong year that was reflected in the high rankings of many Yankee prospects on these various lists, and an organizational ranking around #5, depending who you ask (Jim Callis had them at #5 Keith Law was a little lower on them, and Frankie Piliere had them at #4).  I just wanted to take a moment to compare the placement of the Yankee farmhands on the top 100 lists from various sources, to see which prospects have more of a consensus, and which ones remain controversial.  The lists I am going to use are from Keith Law (from ESPN), John Manuel (Baseball America, only a top 50 list), Frankie Piliere  (a former scout, writes for AOL fanhouse), John Sickels (doesn’t have a full ranking, but uses letter grades and Project Prospect.  Let’s take a look at what these various sources have to say about the top Yankee prospects (apologies that my table looks like crap).

Keith Law John Manuel* Frankie Piliere Project Prospect John Sickels Average Standard Deviation
Jesus Montero 4 3 4 3 A 3.5 0.6
Manny Banuelos 12 20 13 34 B 19.75 10.1
Gary Sanchez 68 17 34 74 B+ 48.25 27.3
Dellin Betances 73 18 44 NR B+ 45 27.5
Andrew Brackman 88 NR 60 NR B- 74 N/A
Austin Romine NR NR NR 86 B- N/A N/A
David Adams NR NR NR 97 C+ N/A N/A

*Only a top 50 list

What can we learn from looking at these rankings?  A few things are pretty evident right away.  The consensus on Montero is pretty solid, with everyone having him in the 4-5 range (and he would likely rank similarly from Sickels, though there are 7 A-rated hitting prospects).

For Banuelos, too, the consensus is pretty strong.  Sickels and Project Prospect are the outliers here.  John has explained his concern about Banuelos having to do with durability questions, presumably due to his size.  To me, that’s a pretty ridiculous argument, as Manny has never had any arm problems, and has smooth mechanics.  As for Project Prospect, they still like the guy a lot, and I would almost have expected him to be a little higher, as they tend to have a very floor-heavy list (and I think Manny, size withstanding, is considered pretty safe as pitching prospects go).

Sanchez has wide variation, and this is understandable for a 17 year-old catcher in Rookie ball.  Some sources, such as Manuel and Piliere in particular, appear enamored with his ceiling and less concerned about his distance from the majors.  It’s a matter of philosophy with a guy like Sanchez, though it is worthy of note that Manuel and Piliere in  are often higher on Yankee prospects than most.  These guys will look smart if Sanchez pulls a Montero and continues to tear up full season ball, but they are also taking a risk on a guy who played most of the season in rookie ball at 17.  Project Prospect has him the lowest at 74, which I still think is a respectable rating for a guy with as little experience as Sanchez.

Betances too is exceptionally polarizing, ranked as high as 17 on Manuel’s list, and did not make Project Prospect’s top 100 list at all.  This too is a reflection of the sizable distance between Betances’ ceiling and floor, through his risk comes more from his injury history than a lack of experience.

Andrew Brackman made Klaw’s and Frankie’s list (and I would guess he would have been on a John Manuel top 100 list too), and the rating of 60 from Frankie is explained by the glowing scouting report that he wrote this summer.

Romine and Adams are both mentioned on Project Prospect’s list, and they share the common theme of being pretty close to major league ready with the bat, and good bets to stay at an up-the-middle defensive position.  It is understandable that Adams missed the other lists due to injury and Romine missed due to a mediocre 2nd half.

With rankings like these, it’s important not to sweat the small stuff, but overall, despite their variations, these lists paint a rosy picture of the Yankee farm, which bodes well for the organization’s future without the “Core Four.”

(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog).

This morning, a clean cut Eric Chavez trotted out to third base at the Yankees’ spring training complex in Tampa and began taking ground balls. Eager to embark on a second career, Chavez told the assembled group of beat writers that he has “a new heartbeat over here”, referring to his new team and anticipated role as a backup player.

Already an “old man” in baseball circles, thanks mostly to debilitating back and shoulder injuries that robbed him of a once promising career, it’s hard to remember that Chavez was once part of the heart and soul of a young Athletics team that made the playoffs in the first four seasons of the last decade. During the first year of the string, Chavez was a standout in the 2000 ALDS, batting .333 and knocking in four runs against the Yankees. However, during that series, Chavez made more noise with his mouth than his bat.

After losing game 4 in an 11-1 route, the older Yankee team had to fly across country to play a fifth and deciding game the very next day. While warming up on the field before the game, a larger than life image of Chavez appeared on the Oakland Coliseum scoreboard. The segment was a pre-game interview with the confident third baseman, who had gone 2-5 with two RBIs in the previous game. When asked about the prospect of ending the Yankees’ dynasty, Chavez’ response was very matter of fact and dripping with an air of inevitability. “I don’t mind at all. I mean, they’ve won enough times,” Chavez’ voice boomed throughout the stadium. “It’s time for some other people to have some glory here. But, no, they had a great run.”

According to reports at the time, the Yankees took immediate notice of Chavez’ proclamation, especially one word: “had”. Although the team probably didn’t need the extra motivation, the brash eulogy proved to be premature. Not only did the Yankees go on to beat the A’s 7-5 in the deciding fifth game, but Chavez made the last out that sent the Yankees onward toward another championship. What’s more, the Yankees knocked the Athletics out of the playoffs in 2001 for good measure. Over the rest of his time in Oakland, Chavez and the Athletics would only win one postseason series. Meanwhile, the Yankees would win two more championships and four A.L. pennants. So much for ending the dynasty.

I think it’s fitting that the last out was from the guy who insinuated that we were over the hill. It’s my understanding that we’re not done yet.”Bernie Williams, quoted in The New York Times, October 9, 2000

The Yankees never did pass the torch to the Athletics. Eventually, the big three pitching staff of Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder as well as offensive standouts like Jason Giambi, and Miguel Tejada all moved on from the cost conscious A’s. Amid all the movement, however, Chavez remained. In March 2004, the Athletics signed their talented young third baseman to a six-year/$66 million extension.

At the time, the contract extension seemed like a shrewd move by the Athletics. Only 25 at the time, Chavez was not only a potent hitter, but also a bona fide Gold Glover at third (an earlier generation’s Evan Longoria), making him one of the game’s best all-around players. Almost immediately after signing the extension, however, Chavez began to suffer from a string of injuries. First, a broken hand in 2004 caused him to miss over 30 games in what was shaping up to be his best season. Then, a series of shoulder and back injuries gradually reduced him to a shell of his former self. Over the final three years of his contract, Chavez earned $35 million but only played in 64 games.

One decade after brashly declaring an end to the Yankees’ dynasty, things have come full circle. Now, it’s Chavez who is at the end of his string hoping to revive his career. Nothing is guaranteed, however. Chavez’ deal with the Yankees is only a minor league contract, so he’ll have to make the team to earn the $1.5 million salary, not to mention $4 million in various incentives.

Because he has missed so much time over the past three years, it really makes little sense to run projections to evaluate Chavez’ potential contribution, but on a gut level, it seems as if he can be a valuable member of the bench, assuming, of course, that he can stay healthy.  Will Chavez’ new heartbeat extend the life to his waning career? It’s probably a crap shoot at best, but if he is able to carve out a niche as a productive bench player, Chavez will have proven wrong the accounts of an early demise…just like the Yankees did in 2000.

Feb 112011

Yesterday while tutoring a student for his SATs, I overheard a conversation another tutor was having with her student. He had a writing assignment for school and ended up writing about going to a Yankee game for his birthday when he was in second grade. This got me thinking about the “old” stadium and the “new” stadium and how they make me feel. When the idea of the new stadium was being floated around at first, I was against it. I was young and sentimental. The House that Ruth Built was the first place I can remember seeing a game (apparently I went to a Mets game and a game in the Metrodome I don’t remember). It’s where I saw A-Rod’s 500th career home run. Aside from infrequent trips to Shea Stadium and a three game set at Fenway Park, it was the only professional stadium I knew for many years. Eventually, I resigned myself to the fact that the new stadium was coming whether I wanted it or not…

If I close my eyes, I can’t tell the difference. All the sounds and the smells are about the same. The whiff hot dogs kept warm in water, freshly poured or spilled beer, and recently freed peanuts settles around me and there’s nothing different. The vague hint of grass and dirt direct themselves upward to my nostrils and lodge themselves inside my mind, turning on my boyhood brain. I can feel myself back on the basepaths. I can feel myself back in the outfield.

The constant hum of the other 54,999 consumes me and makes me think there was no shot move down the street. Frequent organ bursts remind me that I’m right: the sounds haven’t changed much. The ball still slaps against the glove and the bat still cracks against the ball with the same dulcet tones. Then I open my eyes to a diamond more brilliant than any other I could imagine.

While the diamond is what matters most, I can’t help but notice the differences in most everything else. The structure. The placement of the monument. The flags. I see these things and take a deep breath. When exhaling, it comes out more as a sigh than anything else and it takes a part of my heart with it. This isn’t the stadium of my boyhood brain. That building is no more. The last time I saw that building, it was a hole in the ground with concrete surrounding it. I will never get the site of my first baseball memory back. Then the pitch draws my eye back to what matters: the game.

The game’s importance is paramount. That it’s being played is more important than WHERE it’s being played. My boyhood brain and its image of Yankee Stadium II have passed and now, I must embrace Yankee Stadium III and know that it will be the home of my future brain. I’ve already had more-than-fond memories there and will have many more in the years to come. The first place I saw a game is never coming back and I’ll never see the spot where I sat with my mother, sister, and father to see the Yankees play the Blue Jays. My boyhood brain has matured, though, and I have come to terms with all of that. Now, I can do nothing but look forward to all the memories I’ll make in the “new” stadium, like (many) more championships and taking my children to their first game. I’ll never forget what the old stadium meant to me, but I’ll also keep in mind that the new stadium has a chance to mean just as much to me and that it will mean so much more to millions of young fans out there who will grow up with The House that George Built.

Feb 112011

On the heels of the Star-Tribune report that Minnesota Twins ace Francisco Liriano could be available, loads of analysis poured in from every angle. Two pieces really caught my attention, one from Dave Cameron of Fangraphs and another from our buddy Jason Rosenberg’s IATMS site from writer Mark Smith. Here’s the highlights, first up is Mark Smith:

The question now becomes what he’s worth, and I’m afraid I won’t be able to avoid the question. At 9-10 wins over the next few seasons, Liriano will be worth about $50 million dollars, and after we subtract the $4.3 million salary for 2011 and possible $9 million for 2012, we are left with $37 million dollars of surplus value. According to Victor Wang, Jesus Montero ($36.5 million value as a Top 10 hitter) would be an equal swap for two years of Liriano’s services. If the Twins want pitching in return (probable), Manny Banuelos ($15.9 million as Top 11-25 pitcher) and Dellin Betances or Andrew Brackman ($12.1 million as a Top 51-75 pitcher—I’m probably being a little generous there, though not insane) would only be a start with about $7 million left. I realize that will probably start a riot around here, but pitchers are inherently risky because of injury. Yankees prospects are not immune. Another Grade B prospect or a couple C prospects would be necessary to complete the deal. Luckily, the perception of Liriano’s health and the Twins’ willingness to deal him might decrease some of the value needed to bring Liriano to the Big Apple.

As we discussed yesterday, Montero’s not a match unless you get a 3rd team involved. The Twins will want pitching in return, and may see the Killer B’s as guys who could help them out of the bullpen this year. So according to Mark’s numbers, we’re looking at TWO of the Killer B’s plus a B-level positional prospect in an area of need for the Twins. Figure David Adams or Eduardo Nunez.

Next up is Dave Cameron of Fangraphs, who has a very different take:

That leaves Marcum as the closest comparison to Liriano. Like Liriano, Marcum has a history of injury problems but returned to pitch at a high level last year. In fact, their 2010 innings pitched and ERA totals are nearly identical, and this showed in their 2011 contracts – Marcum avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $3.95 million deal, while Liriano got $4.3 million. While Marcum doesn’t throw as hard, they both have knockout secondary pitches which they lean heavily upon.

In return for Marcum, the Blue Jays acquired Brett Lawrie, who Keith Law recently rated as the 37th best prospect in baseball. Position prospects in that range are generally worth about $20-$25 million in value, based on Victor Wang’s research. While the Twins could likely argue that Liriano should be valued at a higher rate than Marcum (teams pay a premium for velocity and strikeouts, both areas where Liriano has a significant edge), I think they’d have a tough time getting significantly more than what Toronto received when they moved a similarly valued pitcher.

In other words, Twins fans can probably stop dreaming of someone like Jesus Montero, as the Yankees would likely balk at that asking price. But if they made Liriano available, the Yankees would be the most obvious suitor, and would likely pay a higher price than any other team. Perhaps they’d be willing to part with Manny Banuelos, who Law ranks as one of the game’s best pitching prospects? That might be enough to satisfy the perceived differences between Liriano and Marcum, but would it be a large enough premium to justify improving one of the Twins main rivals for the American League pennant?

Cameron thinks the top tier prospects won’t be required to get a deal like this done, but two obvious quesions emerge. Will it be worth it for the Twins to deal him? And as Cameron asks, what sort of premium would the Yanks have to pay as a major obstacle to the Twins post season aspirations?

If the Twins weren’t serious contenders for their division and in something of a rebuilding phase, it would make more sense to deal with the Yanks. But strengthening a potential October rival is something that’s got to be hard to sell to your fan base. A deal would have to fill immediate needs with MLB ready talent, so they can argue making the move improves their chances for 2011 while dealing from a position of excess. They need lots of bullpen help, and could use a middle infielder as well. As I discussed yesterday, the Yanks match up well and have good prospects in both areas. The question could come down to how much will Bill Smith want the Yanks to overpay, and how far will Brian Cashman be willing to go. Don’t forget that Bill Smith doesn’t need to make this deal, while Cashman does. Smith is in the driver’s seat here.

I have to figure that Mark Smith’s price tag is the one for the Yankees, while Cameron’s will be the price tag for a NL team. Would you make that first deal? Montero straight up or two Killer B’s+? I know many fans have concerns about Liriano’s health, but having come back fully from TJ last year I feel pretty confident in him going forward. If I’m Brian Cashman, I look to do a Montero-centered deal with a 3rd team involved. Catching is an area of great depth for the Yanks, and high ceiling pitching prospects are the types the Yanks need to hang on to. I doubt anything happens this spring, but if the Yanks feel Russel Martin is back to the player he was a few years ago, dealing Montero will be much easier to swallow.

What do you think? How far would you go for Liriano?

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