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Projecting AJ Burnett

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 1 Response »
Feb 102011

With the troubles that the Yankees have at the back of their rotation, A.J. Burnett has become a key figure in the Yankees’ pitching plans. He is currently slated to be the #3 starter, meaning that another season like the one he had in 2010 (186.2 IP, 5.26 ERA, 4.83 FIP) would make it difficult for the Yankees to mount a playoff charge. It is important to note that 2010 was his worst season, and that all of the projection systems currently available have him bouncing back to some degree in 2010:

CAIRO: 187 IP, 4.77 ERA, 4.50 FIP
Bill James: 191 IP, 4.01 ERA, 4.05 FIP
Marcel: 174 IP, 4.53 ERA, 4.30 FIP
Fans: 181 IP, 4.46 ERA, 4.33 FIP
PECOTA: 186.2 IP, 4.56 ERA

These projections take age and natural decline into account, and the rebound that you see in these statistics blend the fact that 2010 was an anomaly for Burnett with the fact that he is aging and cannot be expected to return entirely to pre-2010 levels. The projections range from 174 to 191 innings pitched, and from an ERA of 4.01 to 4.77. Regarding the ERA, Bill James tends to be optimistic, and I think the generally accepted projection would fit somewhere in the 4.50 range.

These statistics would be a nice improvement over 2010, but I am certain that the Yankees are hoping for more from their #3 starter. The question is whether this hope is reasonable. Brian Cashman, Joe Girardi, and Burnett himself have all insinuated that he had some issues last season that were effecting his mindset, and have suggested that he is once again mentally prepared to pitch effectively. I am uncertain about what to do with this information due to its vague nature, and I leave it up to you to decide whether you are willing to put any stock in it. I do not think it would be realistic to expect much more than the projected numbers listed above, which would certainly be an improvement but may not be enough to convince Brian Cashman that he does not need to acquire another top/middle of the rotation starter.

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My 2011 Prospect List

Posted by Sean P. at 3:00 pm 21 Responses »
Feb 102011

You're awfully big, Jesus. (Photo-NJ.com)

Here it is folks:

  1. Jesus Montero
  2. Gary Sanchez
  3. Manuel Banuelos
  4. Dellin Betances
  5. Andrew Brackman
  6. Slade Heathcott
  7. Adam Warren
  8. Austin Romine
  9. Graham Stoneburner
  10. Hector Noesi
  11. David Adams
  12. Jose Ramirez
  13. JR Murphy
  14. Cito Culver
  15. Brandon Laird
  16. Corban Joseph
  17. Mason Williams
  18. Bryan Mitchell
  19. David Phelps
  20. Rob Segedin
  21. Brett Marshall

That’s right, 21 prospects, not 20, or 30: 21. I settled on 21 because I feel pretty good about 21 names. I’m more of an upside/ceiling type man myself. I think in any ranking though you have to consider closeness to the majors and the fact that a 3 or 4 type starter is pretty damn valuable these days. If you’re wondering why Eduardo Nunez is not on this list than you obviously don’t follow me on Twitter. I tend to like athletic, up the middle talents who show a lot of tools and potential. Angelo Gumbs was a near miss for me. Let me know what you think and disagree with of course- I look forward to a lively and profanity riddled comment section threatening me with great physical harm and/or death.

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Frank Piliere Releases Top 100 MLB Prospects List

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 11 Responses »
Feb 102011

Frank Piliere of AOL Fanhouse released his top-100 MLB prospects yesterday. The Yankees came out pretty big.

#4 Jesus Montero: “He still has critics who like to point to his defense but there is just about no one who will criticize Montero’s bat. Will he be a good defensive catcher? No, but he has shown enough improvement to be an adequate defender. That combined with a potentially special bat make for an impressive total package.”

#13 Manuel Banuelos: “Some like to pretend Banuelos came from nowhere in 2010. Well, he didn’t. He picked up a couple ticks on his fastball and lives at 93-95 now, but even before the spike he was armed with two good secondary offerings and plus command.”

#34 Gary Sanchez: “Most organizations would sign up for having Sanchez as their top prospect, but he doesn’t even get the title of top catching prospect in his organization. That may soon change, however, as Sanchez’s bat rivals Montero’s at the same age and he looks like he’ll be a better defender.”

#44 Dellin Betances: “If not for his injury history, Betances would likely be toward the top 20 in this list. The owner of a 93-96 mph fastball, a plus curveball and a rapidly improving changeup, the towering right-hander has all the components you look for in a frontline starter.”

#60 Andrew Brackman (No Commentary)

And in his online chat, every other question was about Yankee prospects. On Banuelos:

[Comment From Jay CT]
What is Banuelos’s ceiling, and what ML pitcher could you compare him to?

Frankie Piliere: You know I get this question a lot. I use to not agree with the Johan Santana stuff but it’s probably the most accurate one if you have to pick a current big leaguer. He’s similar in size, velocity, and command to the Santana of a few years ago. The changeup is not as unhittable as Santana’s and he isn’t the pure strikeout machine Santana was. But there’s definitely some comparable aspects. I think Banuelos is a number one in the making. Not to say I told you so but I screamed about him last year at this time. People like to just talk about the new velocity but A. his velocity didn’t spike as much as people say. He went from 90-92, 93 to 92-95. and B. his game goes far beyond just raw stuff

[Comment From T-Dubs]
Assuming both had perfect health, is Betances a better prospect than Banuelos?

Frankie Piliere: Lots of Yankee questions. That’s difficult. I might be in the minority but I still think I take Banuelos. I absolutely love Betances’ stuff but the more bust proof guys are the guys with a great feel for pitching and that’s definitely Banuelos.

[Comment From Kim Last]
Would you take Banuelos or Hellickson?

Frankie Piliere: There’s a battle of two guys I absolutely love. Long term give me the lefty with the power stuff. Banuelos

On Jesus Montero:

[Comment From Ben Kabak]
How overrated is Montero? He won’t even catch.

Frankie Piliere: I’ll go with….not overrated. Let’s say for argument’s sake he doesn’t catch. He’s still an elite bat. And, I think he will catch so that’s why he’s up there on the list.

[Comment From Trevorlon]
Do you think the Yankees will move Montero to the outfield in the future or is he a dh?

Frankie Piliere: I’m sticking with him as a catcher. I know I’m in the minority but I’ve seen him enough to see improvement and enough to be an adequate defender.

On Gary Sanchez:

[Comment From Zak]
Gary Sanchez was 25th on your list midway through the season and he was bumped back, even though he finished strong, IMO. Was that due to overrating him on your previous list or something else?

Frankie Piliere: Just a mild adjustment. Now there are 2010 draftees to consider, and I saw more of the new players in instructs and the AFL. Certain no drop in stock for Sanchez. He’s as good as ever.

On Austin Romine:

[Comment From Zak]
Thanks for doing a chat! Austin Romine was 15th midseason on your list and no where to be found, unless my eyes are bad on your top 100 list. I got to see him and it just looked like he was flat out exhausted to me. Is there another reason why he was bumped off so badly?

Frankie Piliere: Lots of things can change huh? Yeah, with all the new draftees considered now and seeing guys more, I just started slowly sliding Romine back. He was one of the final few cuts. He definitely wore down I think. The 15 ranking could have been reactionary on my part because I don’t feel he’s dropped THAT much in status. But he’s slipped a bit, no doubt.

On Dellin Betances:

[Comment From jake h]
You are super high on Dellin. Do you see him as a starting pitcher?

Frankie Piliere: I definitely see him starting. Three average or better offerings and improving command.

On Adam Warren:

[Comment From Zak]
Adam Warren is one of my personal favorite from the Yankees farm system, seems like he doesn’t get too much love as he’s always grouped with Phelps, DJ Mitchell, etc as a backend of the rotation starter. I’m not saying he’s front line, but isn’t he at least worthy of a middle of the rotation type? He’s got good stuff!

Frankie Piliere: I like Warren better than the two others you mentioned. You’re right that he probably doesn’t get quite enough love. He’s not a finesse guy. He runs up into the mid 90s at times and relies on that fastball. But his secondary stuff continues to improve. He’s a middle of the rotation starter.

On Andrew Brackman:

Comment From Trevorlon]
What’s the ceiling of Andrew Brackman and where does he project as a starter?

Frankie Piliere: Let this serve as another opportunity for me to say i was wrong about Brackman. I was very down on him going into the season and he really resurrected himself. He’s a tough guy to project though. Still a bit inconsistent and at that size I think repeating his delivery will always be a challenge. I’d say he’s a #3 just because his command will never be completely consistent.

He offers a strong defense of Montero’s defense, plus great words about Betances, Banuelos, and even Adam Warren.

This is already a long post, so I won’t say much more, except one thing. I know that a lot of readers get a little worried that the powerful optimism about the Yankee farm system is just the product of some collective Yankee blogger Zeitgeist. Piliere is both one of the smartest guys out there publishing about prospects and has no vested interest for or against the Yankees. And he just compared Manuel Banuelos to Johan Santana. Think about that one.

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Catching Notes

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 4 Responses »
Feb 102011

There were two articles in the New York Daily News yesterday that involved catching, and more specifically, Jesus Montero. The first was from Anthony McCarron and it reminded us that Russell Martin is the team’s starting catcher. Despite that, Montero is obviously determined to catch (as he should be):

“I want to be behind the plate,” Montero said Tuesday during a break from a session in the batting cage. “I want to show everybody that I can catch with the Yankees.”

This hearkens back to something we heard from Montero about a year ago. It seems as if nothing’s going to keep Montero from working on his defense and becoming a viable catcher in the Majors. We should realize, though, that’s a process that won’t be complete any time soon. From GM Brian Cashman:

“Russell Martin is the starter,” Yankee GM Brian Cashman said Tuesday. “With Russell, it gives us the ability to transition to the next generation in the best way possible”

While Cashman acknowledges that Martin is the starter, he also makes what we were all already thinking known: Russell Martin is essentially a stopgap until Jesus Montero is ready to catch full time. That could be in 2011, it could be in 2012. We know that Jesus Montero will more-than-likely see time in the Majors at some point this season. The only question is the role that he’ll play. I can’t see him being with the big club unless he’s going to play every single day.

McCarron mentions the “competition” for back up catcher job involving Montero, Austin Romine, and Francisco Cervelli. This is about as much a competition as last year’s fifth starter competition was. This job is Francisco Cervelli’s, no matter what. Even if Montero and Romine rake in Spring Training while playing passable defense, there’s no way the Yankees put either one of them on the bench. While Romine’s stock dove in 2011, he’s still got upside and needs to be playing every day to improve. It doesn’t need saying, but I’ll say it anyway: Jesus Montero needs to be in the lineup every day.

Next, John Harper has notes about Montero being a keeper. This is obvious. I’ve argued all along that the Yankees need to keep Jesus Montero at almost any cost. Even if he can’t catch, his bat will still be cheap and is likely to play anywhere on the diamond, including DH and 1B. Harper shoots down the idea of the latter:

With Mark Teixeira signed for six more years, first base is not an option for Montero

Not so fast, John. Montero may not be able to play first base consistently for the next six years, but afterwards, the possibility is most definitely open. Tex’s contract expires after the 2016 season. Jesus Montero will turn 27 after the 2016 season. He will be entering his age-based prime and will have had a few years of experience at the ML level. Even playing first base would add positional value for the Yankees and Montero.

Harper ends the article with this:

If it’s Felix Hernandez, the decision is a no-brainer. But what if it’s Chris Carpenter? Surely Montero would be too much to give – unless the Yankees were three games out of the wild-card race and six behind the Red Sox.

Desperation could make that a call Cashman prays he doesn’t have to make.

1. The Mariners aren’t trading Felix Hernandez. Though I should note that Hernandez is the only type of player the Yankees should look to acquire if they trade Montero: a young, top-flight starting pitcher.
2. Harper’s right to say that Chris Carpenter is not worth giving up Montero. However, his caveat is also wrong. Even if that scenario comes true, the Yankees should NOT give up Montero for Carpenter–or anyone.

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Twins may make Liriano available

Posted by Steve S. at 8:00 am 5 Responses »
Feb 102011

In a report by Joe Christensen of the Minnesota Star Tribune, it appears the Twins are willing to move the 27 year old lefty, though no timetable has been set. Here’s the story:

With six pitchers vying for five spots in the Twins starting rotation, one possible solution is trading Francisco Liriano. Speaking to team officials recently, I’ve been surprised how open they are to this possibility, but the logic makes sense.

Liriano, 27, can become a free agent after the 2012 season. Coming off a resurgent year, he might never have a higher trade value.

One thing is clear: The Twins don’t plan to sign him long term. Last weekend, they avoided arbitration with a one-year, $4.3 million deal. From what I’ve heard, their long-term talks went nowhere, with Liriano’s camp hinting it wanted a three-year, $39 million contract.

First let’s examine Liriano as a pitcher, then we’ll look at whether the two sides are a match. He has only made 30 starts once in his 5 full seasons in the bigs, and that was last year. Much of that was due to having Tommy John surgery in 2007, and the elbow issues that led to the procedure. He also had a very long road back from the procedure, both in terms of health and effectiveness. He struggled in 2008 and 2009 with both his stuff and control, which isn’t uncommon among TJ patients, as Yankee fans have seen with prospect Andrew Brackman. He also had some arm injuries in the minors. But last year Liriano was all the way back, striking out more than a batter per inning (9.44) with a good walk rate (2.74). When he’s on, he’s one of the best lefties in the game. He features a devastating slider that he fell in love with as a young pitcher, which most likely led to his elbow issues. The 95 MPH fastball we saw as a rookie was all the way back to pre-injury levels last year (94.2 MPH) after being down in 2008 (90.0 MPH) and 2009 (91.5 MPH). He also features a good change up, but the other worldly slider is clearly his best pitch and he relies upon it heavily (threw it 34% last year). He was #2 in all of baseball last year in xFIP, behind only Roy Halladay. When healthy, there’s nothing not to like. He destroys lefties when he’s on, and putting him in Yankee Stadium for his prime years could make him even better.

Before Yankee fans start salivating over trade proposals, remember that Bill Smith is the GM of the Twins. The same GM who demanded a more expensive package from the Yankees for Johan Santana than he wound up getting from the Mets. The Santana deal was a fiasco for the Twins, they wound up trading their best pitcher for virtually nothing. They would have been better off holding on to him and taking the draft picks from a baseball standpoint. Deolis Guerra flamed out in the upper levels of the minors, Carlos Gomez proved he can’t hit and was traded to the Brewers, Philip Humber was mediocre in the upper levels of the minors and horrible in the majors and was released after the 2009 season, and Kevin Mulvey was traded to the D-Backs as a PTBNL in the Rauch deal. All totaled, they got very little value back for one of the best pitchers in baseball. Will Bill Smith be more open to dealing with the Yanks after the Santana experience? Perhaps. But he’s already shown a preference for trading his top pitchers out of the league, and the two situations are also very different in terms of affordability. The Yankees, Mets and Red Sox were the only realistic bidders for Santana, who was making 13 mil with the Twins and looking for a huge extension. Liriano will earn just 4.3 mil this year, has two years of team control left and was only seeking a 3 year, 39 mil extension from the Twins. That will expand the universe of teams who will be bidding for his services dramatically. If there are comparable offers from the Yanks and a NL team, history shows Smith will take the NL package. The Yanks will need to overbid to land Liriano.

That leads us to the next item, do the Yanks and Twins match up? The Yanks are loaded with catchers, but the Twins have Joe Mauer. Many scouts feel Montero’s best position would be 1B, but the Twins have Morneau there. The Yanks are also loaded with pitching, but the impetus for trading Liriano is the fact that the Twins are already 6 deep in starters, with top prospect Kyle Gibson on the way. Smith is known to love speedy outfielders, so Brett Gardner would be an obvious match to platoon with or replace the overpaid and under performing Michael Cuddyer and/or Jason Kubel. The Twins could certainly use some bullpen arms after losing Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Brian Fuentes, Matt Guerrier and Ron Mahay to free agency. The Yanks have a stacked bullpen at the MLB level, and some scouts feel one or all of the Killer Bs will end up as relievers. They may want a 2B  as an insurance policy for newly signed Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, having lost Orlando Hudson to free agency. The Yanks have a few interesting candidates (Adams, Nunez) that could possibly fit there. But a Yankee-Twins deal would seem to require peeling players off the MLB roster, which would obviously create holes for the Yanks to fill. Would a 3 team deal do the trick? Maybe. One thing is for sure, early returns show that Twins fans don’t like the idea of trading Liriano, and things like that can impact how a team operates. That will make it harder to do a deal with the universally hated Yankees.

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