IMPORTANT BLOG ANNOUNCEMENT

PLEASE CHANGE YOUR BOOKMARKS AND FEEDS TO THE NEW URL, YANKEEANALYSTS.COM. TYU IS IN NO WAY AFFILIATED WITH THE NEW YORK YANKEES OR YANKEES UNIVERSE.

How Quickly Things Change

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 2 Responses »
Feb 092011

As many of you know, I am a fan of the Green Bay Packers. In recent years, the General Manager of the Packers, Ted Thompson, has turned into a wildly controversial figure in the Packers fan community. There is a large segment of the fanbase that hates Thompson, with much of that sentiment stemming from the Brett Favre situation. Even putting the Favre situation aside, many feel that he is too conservative in his decision-making, as he generally eschews free agency and focuses on building through the draft. The last major free agent the Packers signed was Charles Woodson, who inked a 7 year deal in April of 2006. I really cannot stress enough how much this has annoyed some Packers fans over the last few seasons, who felt that the team was a free agent or two away from contending in a number of those seasons.

I have a friend who, like me, is a fan of the Packers and Yankees, but he differed from me in his opinion of Ted Thompson. I think Thompson is a solid GM with a good eye for talent, while my buddy was in the “fire Ted Thompson” camp. This morning, I received the following text from him:

Starting to really like Ted Thompson. The Blackhawks gave away their whole future just to get Hossa who is now breaking down. Draft and develop, and sign earlier rather than later for cheaper is the way to go for any franchise not named the Yankees.

Packers fans across the country have echoed this sentiment, issuing mea culpas in the aftermath of the Packers Super Bowl victory. It is a shocking turnaround considering the fact that 7 weeks ago, after a loss to the Lions, most of these people called for Thompson to be fired. Perception changes rapidly in sports, and one spurt of success can erase 5 years of bad blood.

Similarly, Brian Cashman is getting battered from all sides by fans and media alike for what is perceived to be a terrible offseason. He has been unwilling to trade his top prospects for a quick fix, and this strategy has left him with a large hole at the back of his rotation. It seems fairly certain that the Yankees will be seen as one of the losers of the offseason, and that Cashman will be glossing over these last few months on his resume.

Yet, if in 3 seasons, the Yankees win the World Series with Manny Banuelos and Phil Hughes in the rotation, Joba Chamberlain and Dellin Betances in the bullpen, and Jesus Montero mashing in the middle of the order, we might look back on this offseason in an entirely different light. Much like the failed pursuit of Johan Santana was bemoaned at the time but has subsequently come to be viewed as an unqualified positive for the organization, Cashman’s unwillingness to trade the farm for anything but elite talent may undergo a similar reevaluation in the future. Instead of looking upon this offseason as the one in which Cliff Lee got away, we might remember it as the year Cashman held on to the next wave of Yankee stars. It may strike you as unlikely, but if Packers fans can embrace Ted Thompson, anything can happen.

Tagged with: , , , ,

Here Today, Gone Tomorrow: The Final Moments of Yankees’ Legends

Posted by William J. at 3:16 pm No Responses »
Feb 092011

(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog).

Even before Andy Pettitte announced his retirement, there was a feeling of transition surrounding the Yankees. Maybe it was ushered in by Derek Jeter’s contentious contract negotiations or the decision to make Jorge Posada a permanent DH, but regardless, the Yankees’ blogosphere has been filled with sentimental retrospectives centered on the Core Four.

Before the current roster of legends, guys like Don Mattingly, Thurman Munson, Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio, Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth were the icons for previous generations. However, as detailed in an earlier post, fans don’t always get the chance to say a proper goodbye. In most cases, a player’s final at bat or pitch passes by without any notice because the gravity of the moment is not yet understood.

Listed below are the final at bats/batters faced by the “best” players who have worn the pinstripes. With the exception of Ruth and Mike Mussina (and perhaps DiMaggio), there really was little reason to expect that the corresponding outcome would be the final snapshot in each player’s Yankee (or baseball) career. So, if there’s one lesson to be learned, it’s that fans should appreciate their favorite players while they can because many will be gone without warning.

Final AB of Yankees’ Top-20 Position Players, Ranked by WAR

    Last AB with Yankees
Player WAR Date Team Pitcher Result
Babe Ruth^ 149.6 9/30/1934 Senators Tommy Thomas Flyball to CF
Mickey Mantle 120.2 9/28/1968 Red Sox Jim Lonborg Pop fly to SS
Lou Gehrig 118.4 4/30/1939 Senators Pete Appleton Line out to CF
Joe DiMaggio 83.6 10/10/51+ Giants Larry Jansen Double to RF
Yogi Berra^ 62.1 10/5/1963+ Dodgers Don Drysdale Line out to RF
Bill Dickey 54.4 9/8/1946 Senators Sid Hudson Single
Willie Randolph^ 49.8 9/30/1988 Tigers W.Hernandez Flyball to RF
Bernie Williams 47.3 10/6/2006+ Tigers Kenny Rogers K swinging
Tony Lazzeri^ 46.6 10/10/1937+ Giant Don Brennan Pop fly to SS
Earle Combs* 44.7 8/25/1935 ChiSox J. Whitehead Walk
Roy White 44.5 9/27/1979 Indians Sid Monge Sac Fly to LF
Thurman Munson 43.4 8/1/1979 ChiSox Ken Kravec K
Charlie Keller* 42.4 9/13/1952 ChiSox Marv Grissom K looking
Phil Rizzuto* 41.8 8/2/1956 Indians Herb Score Strikeout
Graig Nettles^ 40.6 10/2/1983 Orioles Tippy Martinez Flyball to RF
Gil McDougald* 40 10/10/60+ Pirates Roy Face FC 6-4
Don Mattingly 39.8 10/8/1995+ Mariners Randy Johnson K looking
Tommy Henrich 37.6 10/1/1950 Red Sox Harry Taylor DP: 4-6-3
Joe Gordon^ 36.3 9/18/1946 ChiSox Earl Caldwell Unknown out
Rickey Henderson^ 30.1 6/20/1989 ChiSox John Davis RBI single CF

^Last at bat of career with another team.
+Postseason game
*Appeared as a pinch runner or defensive replacement after final at bat.
Source: Baseball-reference.com 

Final Batter Faced by Yankees’ Top-10 Pitchers, Ranked by WAR

    Last BF with Yankees
Player WAR Date Team Batter Result
Whitey Ford 55.3 5/21/1967 Tigers Jim Northrup Groundout: 1u
Red Ruffing^ 49.7 6/29/1946 Athletics unknown unknown
Ron Guidry 44.4 9/27/1988 Orioles Rene Gonzales Groundout: 6-3
Lefty Gomez^ 43.2 8/14/1942 Athletics Dick Siebert unknown out
Andy Pettitte 42.7 10/18/2010+ Rangers Bengie Molina Groundout: 6-3
Mel Stottlemyre 37.9 8/4/1974 Red Sox Juan Beniquez Flyball to CF
Bob Shawkey 37.6 9/29/1927 Athletics Goose Goslin unknown out
Waite Hoyt^ 31 5/27/1930 Senators unknown unknown
Mike Mussina 30.3 9/28/2008 Red Sox Dustin Pedroia DP: 4-6-3
Herb Pennock^ 29.2 9/23/1933 Red Sox unknown unknown

^Last batter faced in career as a member of another team.
+Postseason game
Source: Baseball-reference.com

The Looming Time Bomb Of CC's Opt-Out

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Feb 092011

Dan Mennella at MLB Trade Rumors noted the following yesterday:

Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia has shed 30 pounds this offseason in an effort to reduce the load on his surgically repaired right knee, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com. Typically, we don’t get too excited over this sort of Spring Training cliche, as we’re bound to hear quite a bit about who’s in shape and who’s not over the next couple weeks, but 30 pounds is a lot of weight, and we’re especially mindful of the opt-out clause in Sabathia’s contract after the 2011 campaign. If he’s healthy and has a big season, Sabathia could be in for another big payday next offseason.

Health seems very important to this equation. Sabathia is owed $23 million per year from 2011 until 2015. That means if he opts out, he leaves $92 million dollars over 4 seasons on the table. He will be 31 years old.

If Sabathia has another Cy Young-caliber season, it will no doubt be the correct economic decision for him to exercise his opt-out clause and try to earn similar money over more years on the open market. Cliff Lee, a highly comparable, if slightly less able, pitcher earned $120 million over 5 years, despite being a full year older than Sabathia will be after 2011. And Lee actually turned down quite a bit of money to settle with the Phillies. I don’t think its unreasonable to expect Sabathia to attract offers in the 6 / $150 range after another year of baseball inflation. Opting out could make him roughly $50 million dollars richer, or more.

Very few players in the history of baseball have ever left that much money on the table for any reason. Lee turned down $28 million to return to the Phillies, and Gil Meche left $12 million on the table to retire, but if Sabathia chooses not to opt-out, he would be passing up the opportunity to earn quite a bit of money.

Of course, Sabathia insists that he will not opt-out of his contract. And he may have such a strong feeling of loyalty to the Yankees and New York that he chooses to stay put. But really, does anyone believe him?

Now, Moshe and others would probably chime in right now and say that the Yankees could benefit from Sabathia opting out. The Yankees got him for his age 28-30 seasons, and would be on the hook for the beginning of his decline years at a high price. There’s some merit to this argument, but I don’t think we should follow it down that path. A free agent ace starting pitcher costs a lot of money, and requires the team to take on significant risk, in today’s market. The Yankees have the money to spend, and Sabathia is as good a guy as there is out there to spend money on. While 36 years old is by no means young, most players haven’t yet completely broken down by the time they reach that age. The odds are that Sabathia will continue to be productive for the majority of his contract.

If Sabathia opts out, the Yankees have some choices. They can resign him at an exorbitant price, or look elsewhere. Elsewhere theoretically includes the fairly weak 2012 free agent market for starting pitchers, the farm system, or a trade. None of these options presents itself with a near-term ace-caliber pitcher to carry the team through the playoffs and to the World Series. If another 28 year-old ace was available on the free agent market, The Yankees would be smart to go and pay him, and let Sabathia bring his risky early 30s to another team. But he is no, so I fear that the end conclusion will be that Sabathia opts out and the Yankees are forced to pay him a lot more money than they currently are. Alex Rodriguez de ja vu here we come. Please Cashman, no more opt-out clauses.

Tagged with:

Getting Creative?

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Feb 092011

Is creative just another word for desperate? In this case, I think not. Yesterday, there was a post on MLBTR about three things the Yankees are, apparently, not doing or haven’t done. We’re winding down the Hot Stove season and ideas are stretching pretty thin. So, I’m going to look and see if there are anyways those moves could make sense. Just bear with me here since the truth and the possible are being stretched very far.

The first item on the MLBTR docket was Carlos Delgado. It would seem, via Joel Sherman, that the Yankees have no interest in Delgado, and with good reason. He didn’t play at all in 2010, though he was good in 2009 when he last played for the Mets. There’s basically one way Delgado could make an impact on the Yankees, and it’s a nightmare scenario. It would involve Russell Martin being injured and/or ineffective, Francisco Cervelli being either of those things, and Jorge Posada forced into catching every day with Jesus Montero, for some reason, not being ready to take the symbolic reins behind the plate. Then and only then would Delgado make sense for the Yankees. He’d slot nicely into the DH spot and his lefty swing would be nothing but aided by the short porch in right field. Of course, that scenario is extremely unlikely. If the Yankees somehow wind up relying on Posada to catch rather than DH, I’d imagine they’d first go in house and use Alex Rodriguez as the most-of-the-time DH while searching for someone who’s better on defense to man third each day.

Jarrod Washburn, like the others mentioned (Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon), makes sense on a minor league deal. Hell, signing Ron Guidry to a minor league deal today would almost make sense. Minor league deals carry absolutely no risk. Of course, Mr. Washburn didn’t want a minor league deal. Adding him to the wall throwing fodder for the fifth starter’s spot would be fine with me, I guess, but I just don’t like Washburn at all. He’s on my irrational hate list, though he’s not as high as Aaron Hill or Ian Kinsler. I guess he’d be second on the pitcher’s list, behind Sergio Mitre. Though it’s worth noting that there are rational reasons to hate both players. But I digress…Imagining a Washburn-on-Yankees scenario is pretty easy, just because of the state of the rotation. Of course, he didn’t pitch at all in 2010, so that’s totally undesirable. Despite that, Marcel projects him to a 4.40 FIP (career 4.60) in 77 innings. Using our trusty WAR spreadsheet, that would give us 1.0 WAR. That’s worth taking a shot on. So, if Washburn changes his mind about accepting a minor league deal, he could be worth a shot.

Tagged with:
© 2011 TYU Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha