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Feb 082011

A couple of weeks ago we looked what CAIRO, the projection system, had to say about the Yankees bench. Now we’ll take a look at PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus’s projection system. Keep in mind that these numbers ARE park adjusted.

LASTNAME FIRSTNAME BATS POS PA HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Jones Andruw R CF 455 21 55 7 0.224 0.326 0.431
Cervelli Francisco R C 450 5 40 3 0.257 0.325 0.354
Maxwell Justin R CF 450 13 45 23 0.222 0.318 0.377
Laird Brandon R 3B 539 20 67 1 0.25 0.293 0.421
Russo Kevin R 2B 450 4 37 10 0.25 0.314 0.334
Belliard Ronnie R 2B 450 9 45 4 0.249 0.311 0.371
Nunez Eduardo S SS 496 7 49 15 0.268 0.299 0.365
Pena Ramiro S SS 450 5 38 9 0.241 0.287 0.326
Chavez Eric L 3B 450 10 43 2 0.223 0.293 0.353
Curtis Colin L LF 486 8 46 3 0.239 0.299 0.353
Golson Gregory R CF 480 9 47 15 0.24 0.281 0.354

The Yankees will almost certainly break camp with Andruw Jones and Frankie Cervelli. They’ll also want one backup SS which would be either Nunez or Pena. So the last spot could be up for grabs in a sense. Brandon Laird would be an interesting option but he hasn’t really shown the ability to hit in AAA much less the majors. It’s best for him to get regular at bats. Russo, Belliard and Chavez are interesting cases. Chavez can hit when he’s healthy, but that hasn’t happened for about half a decade. Belliard has a lot of positional utility and can kind of hit while the same can be said of Kevin Russo.  I think the smart money is probably on Ronnie Belliard.

For giggles, I put together this graph of positional players who are somewhat close to the Yankees 25 man roster. True average is on the X axis while fielding runs above average is on the Y.

Easy to get excited about Montero, no? I thought the Justin Snyder projection was interesting. He’s more of an organizational guy who does two things well- reach base and play defense. He’ll be at AAA in 2010 as he only has 6 ABs so far in Scranton. PECOTA also has Cervelli as better than Romine right now which I think is totally correct. While a lot of fans are chattering about Romine taking over for Cervelli this season, I think that’s getting a little too crazy. He’s not major league ready yet. I Ditto on Jorge Vazquez. I know a lot of people think he’s a hot commodity right now because of his Caribbean series exploits but I wouldn’t get carried away with that, or him for that matter.

Forgive me for tooting my own horn and trying to sell you a great product.

I have just been informed that this year’s Yankees Annual magazine has been sent to the presses, and is also now available for pre-order. I had the privelege of writing two articles for this year’s Annual, which also includes articles written by MLB Trade Rumor’s Howard Megdal,  AOL Fanhouse’s Dan Graziano, Baseball Daily Digest’s David Golebiewski and a whole bunch of other writers who are universally more qualified than I am. Over the four years that I have been writing for it, the magazine has evolved from a basic spring training and fantasy baseball preview to a real hub for high quality Yankee writing. It will include everything from an interview with Pat Venditte to Professor of Physics and Baseball Analyst contributor Alan M. Nathan’s attempt to measure the length of a legendary Mickey Mantle home run.

My first article is called, “A Good Harvest”, and recaps the 2010 season in the minor leagues. I offer a few big picture thoughts that I haven’t typed here, plus a great summary of everything that happened this season. The first two paragraphs:

2010 may have been a disappointing season in the major leagues for the Yankees, but news was different down on the farm. The Yankees experienced a true prospect renaissance in the minors, with good news on all fronts. Over a dozen players pitched and hit their way onto the prospect radar, and already-defined prospects almost universally boosted their case for major league consideration. .

Much of the action for the team occurred at Double-A and Triple-A. This means that many of the big farm system names will spend 2011 very close to the major leagues. The Yankees vastly improved their starting pitcher depth heading into 2011, with as many as 8 talented young starting pitchers potentially competing for spots on the depth charts. The team continued to build the major league’s best catching depth. And finally, the Yankees’ extensive, and at times risky, financial investments on draft day paid off in big ways.

The second article is called, “Spreading the Wealth”, and takes an in-depth look at the 2010 draft. My basic thesis is that the Yankees adopted a drafting strategy that on the surface looked routine (The Yankees spent a lot of money), but in reality was much different from past years. An excerpt:

The Yankees unveiled a new draft strategy in 2010; they spread their bets. Rather than spend big on one or two high-round draft picks or international free agents, the Yankees paid moderately big money to a dozen players.

Signing bonuses for drafted players in baseball generally follow a rigid, hierarchical order. The Commissioner’s Office recommends signing bonuses for each draft, gradually lowering the bonus level for each successive pick. Players drafted in the first round will usually top a million dollars, while players drafted after the 4th round often garner just a few tens of thousands. This is called the slotting system, and most teams use it to figure out how to pay their draft picks. Teams that veer too far from slotted bonuses will draw anger from Bud Selig, and most teams don’t like to upset the order of things.

You can either pre-order the magazine now, or pick it up all over grocery stores, gas stations, book stores, and any where else magazines are sold in the tri-state area beginning March 1st.

Feb 082011

When Aaron Rodgers took a knee on Sunday night, allowing the game clock to tick away the final seconds of the Super Bowl, football season ended. I smiled to myself as the Packers began to celebrate for two reasons. The first: I like Aaron Rodgers a lot. As I’ve said to Moshe before, I think he got a lot of crap he shouldn’t have over the last few years and I was happy to see him win the big one; he’s also a joy to watch. Seriously, did he throw one non-spiral pass on Sunday night?

The second reason is much more meaningful. While we here at TYU–and you out there reading–believe that the baseball season never actually ends, the end of the Super Bowl signals the beginning of the new baseball year. Now that football is over, Spring Training is just a week away. Can you believe it? Yes it’s cliche and no I don’t care, but it seems like just a week ago that the World Series ended and we were poised to start the Hot Stove season. Despite our possible collective incredulity, months have passed and we are on the verge of a wonderful new season of baseball.

Personally, this is going to be a busy time in my life. I’m going to be taking over my cooperating teacher’s classes in two weeks, then I’m going to be job hunting, and hopefully getting a real job by September. In all of that time, the baseball season will still be going on. The baseball season will outlast this increasingly hectic period in my life and will be there as a crutch for me when things get too crazy. At the same time, baseball will just as crazy. But I won’t care. And neither will you.

I’ve said it countless times here on the Internet, but baseball is our safety net and security blanket. It is our sanctuary. It is our madness but at the same time, it is our cure. Let’s start the insanity.

Feb 082011

Pinstripes will have to wait

We all know the Yankees are in desperate need of a 5th starter. Make that 4th starter. Actually, nobody likes AJ Burnett as their #3 …well, you get the point. Some have suggested Andrew Brackman as a possible solution. Brian Cashman has mentioned him as one of the names who will be competing for the 4th/5th starter spot this spring. In a recent post, Mark Smith of IATMS formed a plan where Andrew starts until late in the season and moves to the bullpen later in the year to limit his innings. Sounds good in theory, he has more upside than Freddy Garcia, Sergio Mitre or Bartolo Colon. Among the group of AAA contenders for a rotation slot of Ivan Nova, David Plelps and Hector Noesi, I think its safe to say Brackman’s ceiling is the highest (and that’s not just because he’s 6’10″). He’s already on the 40 man roster, even had a brief MLB call up late last year, although he didn’t see any game action. Prospect watchers have been saying good things about Andrew. Frank Piliere of MLB Fanhouse was drooling over him in a midseason scouting report last August. In the must read NoMaas interview with BAs John Manuel, he praises Brackman for having “More feel for the breaking ball than anyone in the Yankees system” and “If he decides to commit to a slider, he could have a hellacious pitch” after flashing some 07 Joba-esque 90 MPH sliders in the Eastern League last year.

But he’s not ready yet. Not according to Yankee farm director Mark Newman. Baseball America’s George King recently sat down with him and discussed  Brackman. Two comments really jumped out at me:

“His secondary stuff is good and he is throwing strikes,” Newman said. “We feel confident if he pitches out of the pen. If the changeup develops the way it has been going, we feel he can pitch in the rotation.”

So the Yanks aren’t even sure he’s going to be a starter yet at the big league level, much less be ready for a call up to the show. He’s missing plenty of bats (9.1 career SO/9) so needing the changeup and categorizing him as a MLB ready reliever may indicate the Yanks feel he needs a weapon against MLB lefty batters. He follows:

Asked if the miserable (09) season shook the club’s confidence in Brackman, Newman said it didn’t, but that wasn’t the case for the pitcher.

“He wondered about it,” Newman said. “We tried to reassure him that we understood what he had been through.”

His confidence was down after struggling to return after TJ surgery. He made strides last year, but has yet to really dominate the minors the way his size and stuff would suggest he can. Clearly, he’s not a finished product, and spring training ‘competition’ notwithstanding I don’t see the Yanks breaking camp with him on the 25 man roster. The minors are there for development, and rushing someone who’s not ready will only hurt Brackman and the Yanks long term. If Brackman blows through AAA this year, and shows he’s made the progress the Yanks are looking for, maybe a June call up will be in order. But that needs to happen first before we see the big righty in pinstripes.

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