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Feb 042011

The recently-announced retirement of Andy Pettitte is the hot story around the media and the blogosphere, and deservedly so.  His retirement has significant implications for the playoff hopes of the current squad, and also has elicited some controversy as to whether he is Hall of Fame worthy (will probably be discussed ad nauseum until there is more real news to discuss).  Andy Pettitte has long been one of my favorite Yankees (#1 since the retirement of Paul O’Neill), and there have been/will be many emotional farewell, “thanks for the memories” posts around the blogosphere, to thank the big lefty for his 13 years of service in pinstripes.  This post, however, will cover none of the above.

Instead, inspired by John Sickels’ excellent post profiling Andy Pettitte’s career (from the minors on), I just wanted to take some time to reflect on Pettitte’s path to the majors.   I recommend reading John’s post to get the more thorough breakdown, but I’ll just give my thoughts here.

Petttitte was a 22nd round pick in 1990, and instead of signing out of high school, Andy attended San Jacinto Junior College for a year.  Interestingly, Pettitte’s coach at San Jacinto was Wayne Graham, who went on to have a highly successful career coaching at Rice University, producing many first-round pitchers including David Aardsma, Phil Humber, Jeff Niemann, Wade Townsend, and Joe Savery.  Graham has notorious for working his pitchers very hard, which may have contributed to the significant injury histories of these and several other Rice pitchers.  Another fun fact that I learned is that while at San Jacinto, Graham coached a young Roger Clemens (before he transferred to Texas).

He eventually signed with the Yankees out of juco for an $80,000 bonus, a decent chunk of cash for 1990, but hardly the type of money you would expect for a guy who went on to have Pettitte’s long and distinguished career.  This was back in the days of draft and follow, when the team retained a player’s rights for a year if he went to junior college, and could sign him if they liked what they saw.  According to this old story in the Daily News, Pettitte was offered a chance to transfer to the University of Texas, a perennial baseball powerhouse, but chose the Yanks instead.   Given the track that Pettitte ended up following, it’s likely that Andy would have had a very successful college career as a Longhorn, and would’ve been a high pick in the 1994 draft (when he would have first been eligible).  The 1st round of the ’94 draft ended up being a mediocre round for pitching (Jaret Wright was probably the best pitcher from 1994′s first round).

Andy’s minor league career was very impressive, but due primarily to his low draft position (I would hypothesize), he never made a top 100 list until 1995 (when he was #49 on the BA list).  His minor league stats are below.

Year Age Lev W L ERA IP H ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
1991 19 Rk-A- 6 3 1.55 69.2 49 12 1 24 83 1.048 6.3 0.1 3.1 10.7 3.46
1991 19 Rk 4 1 0.98 36.2 16 4 0 8 51 0.655 3.9 0.0 2.0 12.5 6.38
1991 19 A- 2 2 2.18 33.0 33 8 1 16 32 1.485 9.0 0.3 4.4 8.7 2.00
1992 20 A 10 4 2.20 168.0 141 41 4 55 130 1.167 7.6 0.2 2.9 7.0 2.36
1993 21 A+-AA 12 9 3.06 164.2 151 56 7 49 135 1.215 8.3 0.4 2.7 7.4 2.76
1993 21 A+ 11 9 3.04 159.2 146 54 7 47 129 1.209 8.2 0.4 2.6 7.3 2.74
1993 21 AA 1 0 3.60 5.0 5 2 0 2 6 1.400 9.0 0.0 3.6 10.8 3.00
1994 22 AAA-AA 14 4 2.86 169.2 161 54 8 39 111 1.179 8.5 0.4 2.1 5.9 2.85
1994 22 AA 7 2 2.71 73.0 60 22 5 18 50 1.068 7.4 0.6 2.2 6.2 2.78
1994 22 AAA 7 2 2.98 96.2 101 32 3 21 61 1.262 9.4 0.3 2.0 5.7 2.90
1995 23 AAA 0 0 0.00 11.2 7 0 0 0 8 0.600 5.4 0.0 0.0 6.2
8 Seasons 43 20 2.46 608.0 522 166 21 171 493 1.140 7.7 0.3 2.5 7.3 2.88
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/4/2011.

Looking at this list, the numbers are impressive, but nothing earth-shattering.  The career ERA of 2.46, while advancing fairly quickly through the minors, is pretty strong.  Despite getting a lateish start to his minor league career compared to a high school pitcher, Andy pretty much moved up a level every year, and was never overmatched.  He reached full-season ball at age 19 (after a strong rookie ball debut), and made it to AA at 21.  He spent the next 2 seasons (1994 and 1995) between AA and AAA, before making his debut with the big club in 1995.  In his minor league career,  Pettitte demonstrated very good control (career 2.5 bb/9) and a respectable but not overwhelming strikeout rate (7.3 k/9), which would likely keep him from being a top prospect in this day and age.  I have not been able to find anything in the way of old scouting reports, but according to Sickels  Andy never particularly impressed scouts with either his fastball velocity or his secondary offerings, and was viewed primarily as a control pitcher coming up.  His minor league strikeout and walk rates were very similar to the numbers he posted in the bigs.

Was Pettitte misranked as a prospect?  That’s hard to say.  In retrospect, given the great career he had, it’s hard to believe that he didn’t make the BA top 100 until 1995, and even then was ranked behind such luminaries as Brian Hunter (OF Astros), Doug Million (LHP Rockies), Scott Ruffcorn (RHP White Sox) and Josh Booty (3b Marlins).  It must have been Jim Callis’ anti-Yankee bias at work (sarcasm, which I realize doesn’t translate well on the internet).  Believe it or not, all those guys I mentioned were in the top 25, and none of them had significant major league careers.  To be fair to BA, prospecting was a different game back then, and I think they have a lot more information at their disposal presently than they did in the early 90′s.

Where would 1995 Pettitte fit in on today’s top prospects list?  Looking at Keith Law’s top 100 list, Andy profiles similarly to #11 Zach Britton (LHP Orioles) on a statistical basis (though Britton throws a little harder and gets more grounders).  Law would probably have Pettitte lower than Britton based on scouting reports.  I would guess that Pettitte would have fit in around #60, near two lefthanded prospects (Cleveland’s Drew Pomeranz and Atlanta’s Mike Minor) who were both 1st-round picks out of college, but are not considered to have front of the rotation stuff.  In the current Yankee prospect list, he would probably be around #4 or 5, behind Montero, Banuelos, and Betances (and possibly Gary Sanchez, depending on how bullish you are willing to be on a teenager), and ahead of Brackman, Romine, Noesi, etc.

What lessons can be learned about Pettitte as a prospect?  If anything, it illustrates the crapshoot nature of predicting the development of young prospects, and at times the absurdity of the ranking process.  Pettitte was your classic high floor, low ceiling prospect, but when he hit  (and exceeded) his “ceiling”, he was tremendously valuable.  Maybe the prospect ranking industry does get too wrapped up in ceilings, pipe dreams, scouting reports, and strikeouts, and we should give more credit to guys who are able to consistently retire hitters across all levels of the minors, while maintaining good control and limiting homers.  Maybe we should pay more attention to guys like Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, David Phelps, who have been successful throughout their careers, and have great “pitchability”, and be more bearish on guys like Andrew Brackman, who despite his tantalizing potential, has a lot of work to do to even make the majors.  Sure, it’s more likely that Pettitte was an anomaly, and for every Pettitte there are dozens of “pitchability” prospects who never can handle the transition to the majors.

The attributes that made Andy Pettitte a great pitcher could not have been predicted from his minor league numbers.  He showed great aptitude for pitching in developing a nasty cutter at a young age, and reducing his use of the cutter and developing a dangerous curveball at an older age to prevent further injuries.  His tireless work ethic likely contributed to his impressive durability, which was one of his greatest assets throughout his career.  What Pettitte had were certain intangible qualities (not grit and hustle, ok) that do not show up in scouting reports, radar guns, or stat sheets, and these intangibles helped transform him from middling prospect to borderline Hall of Famer.  Trying to predict the next Pettitte would likely be an exercise in futility, but I have my hopes that Manny Banuelos is ready to take up the mantle of the next great Yankee lefty.  If the photo below is any guide, he already has a pretty decent stare.

(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog).

Usually, when one thinks of a podium in the Bronx, it’s there to say hello to a new million dollar acquisition. This time, however, the media hordes were assembled to say goodbye to one of the team’s all-time greats. That’s why, as Andy Pettitte answered questions about his decision to retire, the proceedings took on somewhat of a surreal feeling. After all, if Pettitte was healthy enough to pitch, capable of performing at a high level (his ERA+ of 130 was the fourth highest in his career), and greatly needed by the Yankees, why exactly was he walking away?

As expected, Pettitte’s reasons for retiring centered on his family. According to the lefty, his heart simply wasn’t into returning because the other aspects of his life were pulling on its strings. Considering that Pettitte’s heart has always been in the right place (although Yankees’ fans might not like where it is now), his reasoning was perfectly understandable. And yet, it is still hard to imagine a great player voluntary walking away from the game when he still has the ability to perform.

Since 1901, the Yankees have had 22 position players (minimum 1,000 games) and 10 pitchers (minimum 200 games started or 400 games) compile a WAR greater than 30 during their time in pinstripes. However, from that illustrious group, only three have had a formal press conference to say goodbye on their own terms: Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, and now Andy Pettitte.

Like Pettitte, DiMaggio had been hinting at retirement for some time before eventually making his final decision. During the course of his injury plagued career, Joltin’ Joe would often hint at walking away, but he finally formalized his intentions during the spring of 1951. Despite the dramatic announcement, not too many people expected DiMaggio to actually retire, and the doubts lingered even after he had a subpar year by his standards (OPS+ of 115 in 482 plate appearances). However, after winning the World Series against the cross-town Giants, DiMaggio again told reporters that he probably wouldn’t be back in 1952. Most people still shrugged off the statement, and even Yankees’ owner Dan Topping didn’t seem convinced, telling DiMaggio, “you might feel differently a month from now”. Almost 60 years later, Cashman would be telling Pettitte the same thing.

When baseball is no longer fun, it is no longer a game and so I’ve played my last game of ball.” – Joe DiMaggio, quoted by UP at his retirement press conference, December 11, 1951

As things turned out, DiMaggio was serious. On December 11, 1951, Joltin’ Joe assembled the media and officially retired from the game, much the same way that Pettitte did this morning. At the time, however, such an event was unheard of. “The press conference in which Joe announced his retirement was without precedent in size and confusion,” stated The Sporting News’ Dan Daniel. “The writers were far outnumbered by the newsreel, radio and TV specialists. The sandwiches, coffee and cheese cake had to be replenished thrice.”

When he finally retired, DiMaggio was still a good ballplayer, but the Yankees had a kid named Mickey Mantle on the rise, and the Yankee Clipper didn’t seem too interested in a position change. So, manager Casey Stengel probably wasn’t too disappointed by DiMaggio’s decision (at least not nearly as much Girardi is sure to be without his ace lefty).

After carrying the torch from DiMaggio for 18 seasons, Mantle’s time to say goodbye came during spring training in 1969. Again like Pettitte, Mantle’s 1968 season was very strong (although his .237 batting average likely overshadowed the true value represented by his OPS+ of 142), but a combination of injuries and personal issues convinced him to walk away. With the help of manager Ralph Houk (whose sentiments were echoed by Tino Martinez’ text to Pettitte), Mantle finally came to a decision and made the announcement before what the AP described as “a packed news conference at the New York Yankees spring training hotel”.

Last fall I still thought that I might play another year if I felt well enough in spring training. As months passed I felt more sure in my own mind that now was the time to end my career as a ballplayer.” – Mickey Mantle, quoted by AP at his retirement press conference, March 2, 1969

Since the Mick bid farewell, no Yankee has walked into the sunset amid such wide media coverage. On the pitching side of the ledger, Whitey Ford’s career ended just after the start of the 1967 season when a bone spur in his left elbow made pitching without surgery nearly impossible. Ford walked off the mound after only one inning of his start on May 21, and then four days later his retirement was announced in a statement released by the team.

Yankees’ Pitching Legends

Player WAR GS G W L SV IP SO ERA ERA+
Whitey Ford 55.3 438 498 236 106 10 3170.1 1956 2.75 133
Mariano Rivera 52.9 10 978 74 55 559 1150 1051 2.23 204
Red Ruffing 49.7 391 426 231 124 8 3168.2 1526 3.47 119
Ron Guidry 44.4 323 368 170 91 4 2392 1778 3.29 119
Lefty Gomez 43.2 319 367 189 101 9 2498.1 1468 3.34 125
Andy Pettitte 42.7 396 405 203 112 0 2535.2 1823 3.98 114
Mel Stottlemyre 37.9 356 360 164 139 1 2661.1 1257 2.97 112
Bob Shawkey 37.6 274 415 168 131 26 2488.2 1163 3.12 117
Waite Hoyt 31 276 365 157 98 28 2272.1 713 3.48 115
Mike Mussina 30.3 248 249 123 72 0 1553 1278 3.88 115

Note: Minimum WAR of 30 in at least 200 games started/400 games
Source: Baseball-reference.com 

Ron Guidry, another one of the team’s best pitchers, had an even more unheralded end to his career. Instead of throwing his last pitch in the Bronx, Guidry final’s delivery came as a member of the triple-A Columbus Clippers. In stark contrast to Pettitte’s situation, George Steinbrenner had to insist that Guidry, whose previous season had been cut short by injury, be invited to camp over the objections of manager Dallas Green. An elbow injury delayed the ultimate roster decision, but after another stint on the DL and seven rehab starts in the minors, the Yankees still couldn’t find room for Louisiana Lightning in a frightful rotation that included Richard Dotson, Andy Hawkins and Dave LaPoint. The writing was on the wall, so Guidry had little choice but to retire.

Ron Guidry, the suddenly former Yankee pitcher, had a smile on his lean face, though, at times, in the glare of the lights of the television cameras at the news conference, one could see a little moistness rimming his eyes, and perhaps belying some of his words.” – Ira Berkow, New York Times, July 13, 1989

Mike Mussina is a recent example of a Yankees’ pitcher who went out on top, retiring after winning 20 games in 2008. However, befitting his personality, the Moose called it quits via a conference call. What’s more, soon after his departure, the Yankees were introducing C.C. Sabathia into the fold, so that offseason was more about looking ahead than reminiscing.

Yankees’ Batting Legends

Player WAR G PA HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS+
Babe Ruth 149.6 2084 9198 659 1971 .349 .484 .711 209
Mickey Mantle 120.2 2401 9909 536 1509 .298 .421 .557 172
Lou Gehrig 118.4 2164 9660 493 1995 .340 .447 .632 178
Joe DiMaggio 83.6 1736 7671 361 1537 .325 .398 .579 155
Derek Jeter 70.1 2295 10548 234 1135 .314 .385 .452 119
Yogi Berra 62.1 2116 8355 358 1430 .285 .348 .483 125
Bill Dickey 54.4 1789 7060 202 1209 .313 .382 .486 127
Willie Randolph 49.8 1694 7465 48 549 .275 .374 .357 105
Bernie Williams 47.3 2076 9053 287 1257 .297 .381 .477 125
Tony Lazzeri 46.6 1659 7058 169 1154 .293 .379 .467 120
Jorge Posada 46 1714 6763 261 1021 .275 .377 .479 123
Earle Combs 44.7 1455 6507 58 632 .325 .397 .462 123
Roy White 44.5 1881 7735 160 758 .271 .360 .404 121
Thurman Munson 43.4 1423 5903 113 701 .292 .346 .410 116
Charlie Keller 42.4 1066 4466 184 723 .286 .410 .518 152
Phil Rizzuto 41.8 1661 6711 38 563 .273 .351 .355 93
Alex Rodriguez 40.9 1028 4519 268 841 .296 .393 .559 147
Graig Nettles 40.6 1535 6247 250 834 .253 .329 .433 114
Gil McDougald 40 1336 5395 112 576 .276 .356 .410 111
Don Mattingly 39.8 1785 7721 222 1099 .307 .358 .471 127
Tommy Henrich 37.6 1284 5409 183 795 .282 .382 .491 132
Joe Gordon 36.3 1000 4216 153 617 .271 .358 .467 120

 Note: Minimum WAR of 30 in at least 1,000 games.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

No one was more legendary than Babe Ruth, but his career came to an end only after being utilized as a PR ploy by the Boston Braves for a couple of months in 1935. Claiming he had been double crossed by team president Judge Emil Fuchs, Ruth threatened to quit, so the Braves simply fired him. A poll taken by AP at the time found that no other major club had anything more than an “academic interest” in the Sultan of Swat, so Ruth’s career was suddenly over.

Ruth’s departure from the game was ignominious, but Lou Gehrig’s was truly tragic. Before removing himself from the lineup on May 2, 1939, Gehrig had played in 2,130 consecutive games. After that day, he’d never take the field again. Only July 4, the Yankees held Lou Gehrig Day, which undoubtedly will go down as the most emotional farewell in baseball history. The day was not so much about saying goodbye to Gehrig’s baseball career, however, but rather the man himself. Just under two years later, Gehrig was dead, the victim of a cruel disease that now bears his name.

Sadly, in 1979, tragedy would visit the Yankees again when all star catcher and team captain Thurman Munson perished in a plane crash. At least in Gehrig’s case, the fans and his teammates had a chance to say goodbye.

Between those two extremes, the Yankees have seen several legends walk away from their playing careers in very subtle fashion. Yogi Berra really never said goodbye because his career transitioned directly into the manager’s chair when he went from player to skipper in 1964. Fellow catcher Bill Dickey also had a brief stint as manager and a long tenure as a coach. Phil Rizzuto was famously bumped up to the broadcast booth in 1956 when the team no longer had room for him on the roster, while 1970s stalwarts Willie Randolph and Graig Nettles bounced around with other teams after their time in pinstripes had run its course. Then, there were Yankee lifers like Don Mattingly and Bernie Williams who never even bothered to officially retire. Apparently, it isn’t easy to say goodbye.

As rare as press conferences like Pettitte’s have been in the past, Yankees’ fans better get used to them because there could be three more looming in the near future. Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and Derek Jeter aren’t getting any younger, and eventually it will come time for them to say goodbye. Will they be the ones to walk away? Or, will the game pass them by?

Feb 042011

Andy Pettitte has long been one of my favorite pitchers in baseball. Yes, this is obvious. He pitched for the Yankees and I love the Yankees. But, like many of you, I always felt more of a “connection” to Andy Pettitte. Why? Well, a stupid reason. Andy and I share June 15th as our birthday. Not only was Andy the best pitcher for my favorite team, but he and I had the same birthday! When you’re a little kid, that sort of thing means a lot to you.

My dad and I have since started a relatively extensive autograph collection, but the first one I remember getting was one by Andy Pettitte, but it’s not on a baseball and I wasn’t there to see it signed. My mother worked in a now-gone store on Greenwich Avenue here in (duh) Greenwich. At the time, I can’t remember exactly what year, Andy was one of a handful of Yankees living in or around Greenwich. He came into my mother’s store to buy a gift for someone and she recognized him rather quickly. Of course the first thing she said was how big a fan I was and that he and I had the same birthday. Shyly, she asked if he would sign a business card and, luckily for me, Andy obliged:

Perhaps it’s odd that I don’t have many old memories of Pettitte, but that could be because I was far too young to fully appreciate baseball and watch each and every game with the same gusto I do now. I do, though, remember being crushed along with my friend Doug when the Yankees and Andy parted ways in the early part of the last decade. I remember being thrilled and having a “this just feels right” feeling when Andy came back in 2007.

I guess, then, my favorite Andy memory–memories would be more apt–would be the entire 2009 season. 2009′s World Series win will always hold the most special place in my baseball heart because it was the first Yankee World Series win I was old enough to appreciate. I’ll never forget Andy start each of the series clinching games. I’ll never forget sitting on the couch with my girlfriend, going nuts when Andy Pettitte got that single off of Cole Hamels in Game Three of the World Series.

Andy was never amazingly dominant for a long period of time, but, more importantly, he was never awful for long periods of time. My memory of Andy Pettitte will be one of the stare. It will be one of the kick. It will be one of the pick off mood. It will be one of the fist pump. It will be one of the smile. It will be one of consistency. It will be one I will recall fondly when watching baseball with my children. It will be one of love. In the future when I think of my love of baseball, Andy Pettitte will be one of the first players I think of.

Feb 042011

It was a seasonally warm 55 degree October night in front of a packed house in Yankee Stadium. Tino Martinez threw out the ceremonial first pitch, and the Yanks honored longtime fan Freddy (‘Freddy Sez’) Schuman before the game, who had died the day before at age 85. The series was tied 1-1, with the Yanks and Rangers splitting the first two games in Arlington. Game 3 of the 2010 ALCS, facing none other than the seemingly unbeatable Cliff Lee. Its about as pressure-packed as a situation can be, one where Andy seemed to find himself in the post season a million times before. Andy was battling back and groin injuries toward the end of the year, as if his aging body was sending him a message, but as a fan you still had confidence he would find a way to get it done. You’ve just seen him do it too many times before.

This time, Andy stumbled out of the gate. He gave up a single to center to Michael Young. Normally, that wouldn’t be much of an issue. But next up was 2010 MVP Josh Hamilton. Andy threw him his trademark pitch, a cut fastball on a 2-1 pitch that Josh deposited deep into the right field stands. It was just the 3rd HR Andy gave up to a left handed batter all season, the other two coming from the Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Carlos Pena.

“It was just a bad pitch by me,” Pettitte said. “At the time, you don’t think that’s going to win the ballgame.”

Andy's final act on the mound, a fist pump celebrating an A-Rod play

A less tough, less experienced pitcher might have let that first inning affect him, but not Andy. Pettitte has more starts (42) and more Wins (19) than any other pitcher in postseason history. He found his rhythm, settled in and retired 15 of the next 16 batters after the Hamilton HR. But the damage was done, and for all intents and purposes you could have turned the game off after the first inning. Cliff Lee was his usual, dominating self facing the Yanks in the post season. In in 8 innings pitched he gave up just 2 hits and a walk while striking out 13.

“Cliff was great tonight, to say the least,” Pettitte said. “He was just outstanding. You can’t say enough about what he did tonight in this ballpark. To be able to do what he did is pretty impressive.”

NEW YORK - OCTOBER 18: Andy Pettitte #46 of the New York Yankees walks back to the dugout at the end of the top of the seventh inning against the Texas Rangers in Game Three of the ALCS during the 2010 MLB Playoffs at Yankee Stadium on October 18, 2010 in New York, New York. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Andy Pettitte Photo: Getty Images, Al Bello / 2010 Getty Images

According to Brian Cashman, after the game was over Andy called him aside and told him “Don’t wait on me” if he had any plans to sign a pitcher this off season. Brian said that struck him as unusual. Andy has gone through an annual soul searching on whether or not to return every winter, but he never said anything like that to him before. It seems Andy knew which way he was leaning long before anyone else did.

He was acknowledged by a standing ovation, and — with the left-hander at age 38 — there is a possibility that it could have been Pettitte’s final Yankee Stadium moment.

“Sitting in the clubhouse, you kind of think about that,” Pettitte said. “But then there’s a lot of baseball to be played. And I feel real good about our team and about the club that we have.”

Recaps of the game the following day in newspapers and websites focused on how dominating Lee was, the way the Yankee bullpen imploded after Andy’s exit, and how impressive the Rangers rookie Closer Neftali Feliz looked. Yet the biggest story of the game, one we didn’t know at the time, was that it final game that Andy Pettitte would ever pitch.

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