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Give This Man a Baseball Team

Posted by Sean P. at 5:00 pm 13 Responses »
Feb 032011

Courtesy thenextweb.com

Seemingly every time a baseball team is on the brink of being sold we start hearing a lot about Mark Cuban. The 52-year-old billionaire is the owner of the perennially successful Dallas Mavericks, a team which he transformed from a league doormat to a top Western Conference talent. While he’s widely known for his antics at Mavericks games (he attends them all home and away) his personality has overshadowed his accomplishments as an owner.

Cuban was a breath of fresh air for Dallas, changing the way the entire front office thought about basketball operations. He hired statistical analysts, one of the first basketball owners to do so. He changed the way the players were accommodated, hired nutritionists to develop individualized meals for the athletes, upgraded their travel accommodations and even was the first owner to personally ask for and answer e-mail in the early 2000s. He’s a complete paragon as an owner. He doesn’t attend games in a luxury box dressed in a suit with his pals. He sits behind the bench in a Mav’s Jersey screaming at officials. He’s as much a fan as he is an owner. He’s even responsible for the 3 sided shot clock- after readers e-mailed him complaining that the shot clock on top of the basket wasn’t visible from all angles, he went ahead and installed a 3 sided clock which can now be found in every arena in the NBA.

So is it really surprising that Bud Selig keeps a guy like this out of ownership in favor of this idiot who literally bought the team with borrowed money and a big parking lot? Well if you know Bud, it’s not. Here’s a money quote from Rob Neyer:

“Major League Baseball prefers – and maybe requires, unofficially – prospective owners with plenty of money but very little public credibility. That way, they’re more likely to be grateful for being allowed into the club, and willing to (mostly) take their marching orders from the Commissioner’s Office. Go along to get along.

Mark Cuban never really had a chance, for the simple reason that his money is largely irrelevant. Baseball teams are worth what they’re worth. You might figure they simply go to the highest bidder, but that’s not really how it works. Essentially, MLB decides how much the team is worth, three or four ownership groups put together financial packages for that amount, and MLB chooses one of them. In that scenario, Mark Cuban’s going to finish last every time, because MLB doesn’t need his money and MLB doesn’t want an owner who’s already famous and won’t keep his mouth shut. “

And that’s really the problem with baseball isn’t it? From instant replay to the way it fails to market its smaller franchises and younger stars, Major League baseball has languished in a way. Of course the league is making money and people still go to games but how much better could it be doing? Will baseball continue to get completely eclipsed by the NFL forever? There hasn’t been any outcry about the two small market teams in the super bowl on Sunday, has there? I can’t imagine what the whining would be like for a Pirates Twins World Series. Have you SEEN these commercials? Have you had to endure watching the MLB Network?

I digress. This isn’t about Bud Selig being the worst commissioner in sports (although he is). This is about how good it would be for the game to have an owner like Mark Cuban leading the Pirates or Astros. The way the New York fans lionize George Steinbrenner is there any reason to think Mets fans wouldn’t do the same for Mark Cuban? How much fun would it be to have another giant monolith of an owner to root against? How great would it be to have Mark Cuban pushing the innovation of a league that still likes to think of itself as planted in the 1970s?

Sadly we’ll probably never find out. After running into all the roadblocks it looks like Cuban is done chasing the elusive grasp of MLB ownership. I think that’s really too bad for all of us.

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Andy Pettitte To Retire

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 10 Responses »
Feb 032011

Capping off a tumultuous offseason in which the Yankees seemed to have been denied every player they really wanted, Andy Pettitte has decided to retire. While we can hold out hope that Andy changes his mind at some point and joins the club for the second half ala Roger Clemens, this leaves the Yankees with very little margin for error in their rotation. They need CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, and AJ Burnett to pitch well, and have to get decent production from at least one of their young pitchers or reclamation projects. They still project to win about 90 games and to be better than the other wild card contenders, but the gap between them and their closest competitors is very slim, such that one injury to a top 3 starter could really hurt their chances of making the postseason. There is no way to spin this as anything other than a blow to the Yankees championship hopes.

As for Andy, he is a fan favorite here in New York, and rightfully so. For many of us, watching him blossom from a prospect into a rotation stalwart was an important element of the beginning of our Yankee fandom, as Ben Kabak eloquently notes:

I grew up with Andy Pettitte. I was 12 and he was 23 when he came up to pitch in the Majors. I saw him morph from a prospect to a team leader and a stalwart in the rotation. I’ll certainly miss his stare, his familiar leg kick, his pick-off move and the fact that he would pitch every five days and give it his all. We’re all growing up and getting older, and it just won’t be the same in the Bronx without him.

There will be a lot of eulogizing done over the next few days, both for Andy’s career and for the Yankees 2011 season. Discussions of Andy’s Hall of Fame worthiness are likely to dominate the former, while gratuitous shots at Brian Cashman and the Yankee front office are likely to characterize the latter. We will address these issues over the next few days. For now, let’s just tip our caps to a great Yankee. Andy Pettitte will be missed.

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Projecting the 2011 Minor League Rotations

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 7 Responses »
Feb 032011

With the off season winding down, I figure that it is about time to see where everybody is going to wind up. The Yankees manage to emerge from a slow post-2011 off season while hanging on to all of their top pitching prospects. I have prepared this graphic in order to attempt to project where they will all end up.

Brian Cashman wasn’t kidding when he said that our upper minor league rotations are full. The Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre Yankees and Double-A Trenton Thunder will have, by some measures, 10 prospects to fill 10 rotation spots. Craig Heyer and Shaeffer Hall are certainly the runts of the group, but they are a big improvement on the years when these kinds of guys took those spots. There is some downside to that of course – players won’t really be able to move up to a higher level in the middle of the season without an injury clearing the way. And of course, an injury means that a valuable prospect just went down. Last season saw guys like Dellin Betances and Manuel Banuelos make unexpectedly quick rises through the minor leagues. That won’t be as easy for Brett Marshall and Jose Ramirez, and it could keep a strongly performing Graham Stoneburner stuck at Double-A. Plus, if Nova gets bumped down to the minors, it throws the whole system into disarray. Still, that’s not a bad problem to have.

Scranton gets to start off with Andrew Brackman, Hector Noesi and David Phelps. Each has their own little test. Brackman has to continue to pitch within his mechanics like he did last year, since this is his last year with any options. David Phelps has to prove that his stuff plays to advanced hitters. Hector Noesi has a similar story – he needs to show whether or not his control of the strike zone holds up as he nears the majors. For Noesi, it will be about defining whether or not he can be a Major League innings eater or a serious impact starting pitcher. Adam Warren needs to follow up his standout performance at Trenton last season with another one, or start to face a possible bullpen conversion. D.J. Mitchell needs to learn to get lefties out, or he will be the first starting pitcher converted to the bullpen after Dellin Betances has a 15 strikeout game.

The story in Trenton is no doubt about Banuelos and Betances. Betances needs to stay healthy. He hasn’t had a truly healthy season since 2008, and smart watchers are very concerned that he’ll continue to be brittle. Height issues aside, Banuelos has none of those concerns. We’ll be looking for him to reestablish the amazing velocity he showcased last season, and continue to put up eye-popping numbers. Graham Stoneburner both has to follow up a phenomenal breakout season and deal with the struggle of being overshadowed by some many prospects above him. No matter how well he does, Stoneburner will probably not budge from the Trenton rotation all year. Too many guys are ahead of him. Heyer and Hall aren’t great prospects, but Heyer did pull off a 0.6 BB/9 last year, so who knows. Maybe he’s pretty good.

Brett Marshall could make Tampa very exciting this year. He’s a better prospect than people realize, and certainly made an impression after coming back from surgery last season. His challenge will be to strike out more batters with his 95-97 mph fastball, since he has averaged just 7.0 K/9 in 3 minor league seasons. Jose Ramirez joins him in the underrated category, and a strong performance could see him competing with Marshall to bump one of Hall or Heyer from Trenton. Jairo Heredia is still seeking redemption behind them, but hasn’t recovered well from shoulder issues. Sean Black may be the next David Phelps, but I know nothing about Kelvin Perez.

In Charleston, we’re searching for a breakout. Bryan Mitchell is one of the bigger sleepers in the organization. He profiles a lot like Brett Marshall, with wild, untamed flamethrowing stuff and at times a killer curveball. Varce and Burawa are experienced college arms who could climb up the ladder quickly, and both Richardson and O’Brien have some potential to be decent. Its a solid bunch, even if none have become all that exciting yet. However, a strong performance could put any of them on the map as future MLB prospects, especially Mitchell.

Of course, these are just projections. Adam Warren could be bumped from the Scranton rotation in favor of a veteran (one of Colon or Garcia perhaps) or Ivan Nova. On the lower end, the Yankees could push experienced players like Zach Varce or Daniel Burawa to Tampa, while cutting either Jairo Heredia or Kelvin Perez. One of the EST starters could impress in spring training and start in Charleston. Burawa could also be one of several to be converted to relief pitching along with D.J. Mitchell and Taylor Morton.

Which rotation is the most interesting to pay attention to? Obviously, its a contest between Trenton and Scranton, though Marshall and Ramirez could make some noise down in Tampa. Scranton has 5 legitimate prospects, while Trenton is kind of dragging along their bottom two. Still, I go with Trenton, where Betances and Banuelos will put on a show two days out of every 5.

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Projecting the Bullpen

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Feb 032011

Yesterday, I projected the potential starting rotation by WAR so I’ll do the same thing with the bullpen today. However, it’s near impossible to tell just how many guys will be pitching in the bullpen and at what times. In fact, it’s possible that some of the guys I projected in the rotation will get significant innings in the bullpen rather than in the rotation. To avoid guess work, I’ll just be calculating the WAR of guys we KNOW will be in the bullpen and comparing their personal marks to those of last year. The guys we KNOW will be in the bullpen:

Mariano Rivera
Rafael Soriano
David Robertson
Joba Chamberlain
Pedro Feliciano
Boone Logan

I’m leaving out the long man because I have no idea who that’s going to be. I put the pitchers in that order because that’s how I think they’ll be used in terms of leverage, and that’s how the spreadsheet is formatted. To clarify, we’re assuming Mariano Rivera is going to be used in the highest leverage situations while Boone Logan will be used in the lowest leverage situations. Obviously, this is flexible and not exact, but we’ll roll with it for now. On to the projections!

Mariano Rivera: 2.99 FIP in 68 IP, 2.7 WAR
Rafael Soriano: 3.48 FIP in 66 IP, 1.3 WAR
David Robertson: 3.68 FIP in 67 IP, 0.8 WAR
Joba Chamberlain: 2.98 FIP in 72 IP, 1.4WAR*
Pedro Feliciano: 3.89 FIP in 65 IP, 0.5 WAR
Boone Logan: 4.24 FIP in 48 IP, 0.2 WAR

*Joba’s CAIRO projection included nine starts, which affected his originally projected IP (85) and FIP (3.94). So, I used his 2010 season as a guide and rounded up to 72 innings, while keeping his FIP tally the same. Joba showed in 2010 that he was pretty good at the FIP skill set and his career as a reliever (2.55 FIP) mirrors that.

So how do the 2011 projections compare the 2010 results? We see Joba staying the same at 1.4 WAR while we see Mo gaining an entire win from his 2010 season. D-Rob gains a tenth of a win; Logan loses two tenths of a win. Soriano drops three tenths of a win, and that’s probably due to the FIP correction CAIRO sees for Rafael. As for Feliciano, he’d also be dropping three tenths of a win but I may be underestimating his leverage.

In terms of confidence, I feel a good deal of it int he FIP projections (though Soriano’s may be a touch high) but not necessarily so in terms of the exact leverage numbers. Logan and Feliciano may end up in higher leverage situations than I anticipated due to different matchups and it’s possible that Joba and Robertson switch places in terms of who gets how many higher leverage innings. No matter what, though, I’m confident that the Yankee bullpen will be more than solid in 2011.

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