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Cash Preaches Patience With Prospects

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 6 Responses »
Feb 022011

From Joel Sherman:

So who knows what happens when their two best pitching prospects, Manuel Banuelos and Dellin Betances, begin throwing in spring, particularly in light of the Yanks’ hunger for quality starting pitching.

However, for now, GM Brian Cashman is firm that Banuelos and Betances are not part of major league plans for 2011 either out of spring training or during the season.

“They shouldn’t be caught up in our major league problems,” Cashman told me. Translation: No matter how short the rotation might be, it is not up to two inexperienced pitchers to solve the mess caused by Cliff Lee’s rejection and Andy Pettitte continued defection. Banuelos and Betances have each made three career starts at Double-A, which is the highest level they have attained. Both had injuries last year that severely restricted their workload. So you can expect that the Yanks will institute an innings cap not much above 130 – if that high. With that the case, it would be hard to begin or end the year with either Banuelos or Betances in the rotation. In addition, Cashman stressed that Banuelos is just 19 (he turns 20 next month).

Neither pitcher is entirely ready for the majors, although Keith Law believes that Banuelos is very close. That said, I can already see how spring training will play out if either guy performs well. People will see the hotshot prospect throwing heaters next to Freddy Garcia’s soft-tossing and Bartolo Colon’s waistline and will suggest that the Yankees go with the young arm in the rotation. While that would be the more exciting and interesting decision, Cashman is right to be opposed to any such move.

Handing a major league job to a pitcher who has yet to see significant time in AA is a recipe for disaster. The Yankees would likely see marginal gain at best from starting the prospect over the veteran, and there is a distinct possibility that the prospect would be awful and actually cost the team more than Freddy Garcia might. Additionally, there is a nonzero chance that rushing the prospect into the rotation would stunt his development and cost the Yankees a valuable asset.

Showing patience with prospects is incredibly difficult, particularly when the alternatives are guys who were last effective 3 or 4 seasons ago. But building a farm system requires a deft hand, as pushing players too quickly or moving them along too slowly could upset the delicate balance of talent and health that goes into building a professional baseball player. When it comes to Banuelos and Betances, having them start the season in the majors would be a poor decision built upon desperation, and could very well hurt the franchise in the long run. Hopefully Brian Cashman remains steadfast in his opposition to rushing these pitchers, and they develop into excellent pitchers at their own pace.

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Madoff Money Just One of the Mets Concerns; Team Runs the Risk of Being Swallowed by Yankees’ Shadow

Posted by William J. at 3:13 pm 1 Response »
Feb 022011

(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog).

After months of denial, the New York Mets finally admitted to a popular suspicion: the team’s finances have been materially impacted by its ownership group’s involvement in the Bernie Madoff investment scandal.

Ironically, however, the impact isn’t a result of how much money was lost, but how much was gained by investment companies like Sterling Equities that are controlled by owner Fred Wilpon and partner Saul Katz. At the same time Madoff defrauded others out of approximately $20 billion, Sterling and a myriad of other Wilpon-related entities are believed to have netted well into the hundreds of millions. What might seem like good fortune to some is, in reality, a very sticky situation for Wilpon and his business partners. Why? Because Irving H. Picard, the trustee appointed to fairly distribute remaining and recovered assets, has filed a lawsuit to recoup the ill-gotten gains. In addition to the over $300 million in profits that Wilpon’s holdings are alleged to have received, a New York Times report recently stated that Picard could seek close to $1 billion if it is determined that the companies’ conduct contributed to the fraud in any way.

Although the $1 billion figure seems fanciful, the $300 million number is probably a pretty good ballpark figure. If you take 25% (the approximate percentage in the team the Mets are interested in selling) of Forbes’ $858 million valuation of the ballclub, you get just over $200 million. So, based on this piece of circumstantial evidence, it seems as if the sale is intended to meet the lawsuit’s potentially substantial obligations. In the meantime, the named defendants have petitioned a judge to prevent the terms of Picard’s lawsuit from being made public.

Despite the dire circumstances faced by the Wilpons and their investment partners, the ownership group has maintained that there shouldn’t be any adverse impact on the day-to-day operations of the Mets. The team’s current round of cost cutting would seem to dispute that contention, but the poor state of the franchise would probably dictate a pull back anyway. However, Commissioner Bud Selig is concerned enough about the situation to have called Wilpon onto the carpet to discuss the Mets’ finances. Interestingly, this isn’t the first time Selig has injected himself into the Mets’ affairs. According to new GM Sandy Alderson, it was only with Selig’s “urging” that he decided to pursue the Mets’ opening in the first place. Considering all that has unfolded, one wonders if Alderson wouldn’t like to have his own private meeting with the Commissioner?

While the Mets sort through their financial woes, the outlook on the field is not much better. Barring unexpected production throughout the roster, the Mets are poised for at least one or two years of rebuilding. As a result, the financial impact of more losing seasons, combined with the Madoff fallout, could effectively spell the end of the Wilpon family’s majority ownership of the Mets. Regardless, an even bigger concern is the possibility that the team’s brand could suffer a longer lasting blow that would tuck it away even further into the Yankees’ shadow.

Mets, Yankees Average Game Attendance, 1962-2010

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Even when the Mets were brand new, they didn’t have to take a backseat to the Yankees. New York had first been a National League town, so there were thousands of former Dodger and Giant fans just waiting to embrace a new team in the senior circuit. As a result, by 1964, the upstart Mets managed to outdraw the four-time defending A.L. champion Yankees. Since that time, however, the Mets have seemed to be vulnerable to wild attendance fluctuations that usually coincide with their performance on the field. In that respect, the Mets are really no different from most teams, except, of course, for the added disadvantage of sharing the market with the Yankees.

Since the Mets entered the National League, the Yankees have had two notable down periods (1965-1973 and 1989-1992). During those years, however, the Yankees managed to maintain their attendance figures in a relatively narrow range. In fact, in 1990 when the team lost 95 games, the Yankees still managed to the top the two million mark. What should be particularly worrisome to the Mets, however, is that the Yankees’ best play, and therefore greatest attendance gains, has come during down periods for the Mets. During these periods, the Yankees have enjoyed extended growth, and, because they have demonstrated an ability to hold onto their fan base, there has been less opportunity for the Mets to take these fans back.

In 2010, the Mets’ experienced a 19.2% per game attendance decline (in 2009, attendance declined 21.6%, but that was mostly because of CitiField’s reduced capacity), which was a significant blow to a team just two years into a new stadium (not to mention all of the corresponding debt service). Meanwhile, across town, the Yankees keep on trucking. Although Yankee Stadium’s capacity doesn’t allow for a much higher average attendance figure, in today’s media age, the Mets still run the risk of having SNY fall even further behind YES. In many ways, the Yankees have created a vacuum in the New York market, and if the Mets don’t turn things around quickly, they could get sucked in.

Because New York is first and foremost a baseball town, the Mets will always be just one or two good seasons away from an attendance rebound. However, if their goal is to at least approach the Yankees’ popularity and financial clout, they’ll need to quickly get their own economics squared away so Alderson can begin the task of restoring order on the field. It remains to be seen if the Wilpons will have the financial wherewithal to oversee this conversion, but if it is determined otherwise, a prolonged sale process could wind up being the real disaster.

Top 20 Yankee Hitters Of All Time?

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 21 Responses »
Feb 022011

Over at Bleacher Report, they came up with a list of the top 20 Yankee hitters of all time. The list:

1. Babe Ruth
2. Lou Gehrig
3. Derek Jeter
4. Mickey Mantle
5. Joe DiMaggio
6. Don Mattingly
7. Bernie Williams
8. Yogi Berra
9. Earle Combs
10. Billy Dickey
11. Tony Lazzeri
12. Roy White
13. Bob Meusel
14. Thurman Munson
15. Phil Rizzuto
16. Jorge Posada
17. Roger Maris
18. Wade Boggs
19. Frank Crossetti
20. Bobby Richardson

I look at this list with a big fat blank stare. Wade Boggs? Frank Crossetti? Jeter over Mantle? Bernie Williams over Yogi Berra? Bob Meusel ranked 13th all time? If we’re including players like Wade Boggs, where is Alex Rodriguez? And what the hell is Bobby Richardson, Mr. .299 OBP, even doing in the top-40? He’s a big reason why Mantle didn’t get more RBIs.

Here is my list, using the following criteria: overall contribution as a position player, more credit to post-Jackie Robinson era players, and limited to contributions as a Yankee.

1. Babe Ruth
2. Mickey Mantle
3. Lou Gehrig – Loses to Mantle because of era
4. Joe DiMaggio – Beats Jeter because he gets credit for losing ages 28-30 due to WWII
5. Derek Jeter
6. Yogi Berra
7. Jorge Posada
8. Alex Rodriguez – Seriously, Wade Boggs over Arod?
9. Billy Dickey
10. Bernie Williams
11. Don Mattingly
12. Willie Randolph
13. Tony Lazzeri
14. Thruman Munson
15. Earle Combs
16. Roy White
17. Phil Rizzuto (Points for defense)
18. Graig Nettles
19. Dave Winfield
20. Charles Keller

Because I’m only rating their career as a Yankee, some greater part-time Yankees like Ricky Henderson (better than Wade Boggs), Reggie Jackson, and Tim Raines get left off the list.

I didn’t give players a handicap for being injured, but I did give them points for things completely out of their control like being drafted or dying in a plane crash. I strongly believe that Don Mattingly is incredibly overrated, while Jorge Posada is incredibly underrated. I knocked Tony Lazzeri and Earle Combs down quite a bit because they played in a comparatively uncompetitive era, and got to hit next to Gehrig and Ruth.

But that’s my list. Discuss.

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Projecting the Rotation

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Feb 022011

Without a hint of hesitation, I would say that the starting rotation is the biggest hole the 2011 Yankees will have. It consists of one bonafide ace/workhorse/gamer/whatever buzzword there is for pitchers in CC Sabathia. After that, there’s no shortage of question marks. Let’s rewind to last year for a second.

The Yankees had eight men take the hill to start a game in 2010: Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, Dustin Moseley, and Javier Vazquez. Sparing the long reminiscence, we could call 2010 a mixed bag in terms of success for the Yankee starters. CC Sabathia had a typical CC Sabathia season. Andy Pettitte was great, but was injured and threw under 130 innings. Mitre enjoyed a small sample of (probably unsustainable) success; Moseley was replacement level as expected; Nova showed some potential. Phil Hughes looked like he was starting to realize his considerable upside, though he did slide a bit after an impressive first month. Vazquez and Burnett? Looking at their collective performance in 2010 is like looking at the light that came from the Ark of the Covenant, only it wasn’t the power of God but of unmatched suckitude.

All told, the 2010 starters for the Yankees tossed 973 innings and racked up 10.60 fWAR. Can the 2011 rotation match or beat that? A lot of our gut reactions might say “no” considering how poorly we’ve been “conditioned” to view the forthcoming rotation. So I plugged some Yankee projections into the pitching WAR spreadsheet from Beyond the Box Score (glove slap Mike Axisa) to see what would come out the other end.

I intended this post to only be about Ivan Nova, but I thought why not expand it to the whole rotation? After all, I like to think I live by the “go big or go home” motto that a high school friend spouted perpetually. I used nine starters, the nine I think are most likely to make starts for the 2011 Yankees. I took their CAIRO projected innings pitched and FIPs and plugged them into the above spreadsheet and here’s what I got:

CC Sabathia: 210 IP w/3.68 FIP = 4.7 WAR
Phil Hughes: 172 IP w/4.17 FIP = 2.8 WAR
A.J. Burnett: 187 IP w/4.50 FIP = 2.3 WAR
Ivan Nova: 116 IP w/5.04 FIP = 0.8 WAR
Sergio Mitre: 72 IP w/4.69 FIP = 0.7 WAR
Freddy Garcia: 31 IP w/4.90 FIP = 0.2 WAR
Andrew Brackman: 63 IP w/5.26 FIP = 0.3 WAR
David Phelps: 94 IP w/5.05 FIP = 0.6 WAR
Hector Noesi: 80 IP w/4.91 FIP = 0.6 WAR

Before we get to tabulating the results, I want to review my methodology a bit here. I kept each pitcher’s leverage at 1.0 to make things even. I didn’t change the CAIRO innings projections at all, even though some of them might be unrealistic. I don’t think Phelps (or Noesi or maybe even Brackman) will get that many innings and I don’t think Garcia will get that few. I’m also assuming in this that every inning pitched by these guys is as a starting pitcher, which may not be likely for the “prospect trio” and Sergio Mitre. That said, some of this stuff isn’t THAT far out of the realm of possibility, so let’s get to the results.

These projections give us 1025 innings pitched by Yankee starters, in which they rack up 12.9 WAR. Both of those numbers beat the 2010 version of Yankee starting pitching. We must note that the 2011 projection includes one more pitcher than the 2010 “rotation” did so I adjusted this with a rough WAR/IP calculation. The 2010 starters were worth 0.0109 WAR/IP and the 2011 rotation projects to be worth 0.0126 WAR/IP.

The rotation was 11th in the American League in fWAR by starters in 2010 and if we plug the projected 2011 rotation into that list, it would have the 9th best SP fWAR in the AL. That’s still below the league median, but, again, better than what the team had in 2010.

We’ve been very doom-and-gloom about the possible rotation for 2011, but these numbers (that, yes, we should take with a grain of salt because they’re projections), should help allay our fears just a little bit. While it seems the 2011 rotation might not quite be league average as a whole, it could still be a two win improvement from 2010. With the added bullpen strength and the still strong lineup, the Yankees look like they’ll have a formidable team in 2011.

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Assessing Brian Cashman's reign-Part 3 of 5

Posted by Steve S. at 7:00 am 3 Responses »
Feb 022011

Part three of our series takes us back to 2008, which was memorable for being the first season with Joe Girardi as manager and the final year in the old Yankee Stadium, but little else. It was something of a transition year, or at least as close as the Yankees will ever get to having one. The sheer volume of moves is indicative of how many problems there were with the team that broke camp, and the Yankee GM spent much of the season trying (mostly in vain) to plug holes. Not a banner year for Brian, so if you’re a Cashman basher, this one’s for you.

Alex Rodriguez granted Free Agency.

I’m going to break my rule on not covering Yankee players who were retained as FAs for this doozy of a contract, but will refrain from giving it a grade since I didn’t grade the other Yanks who were retained after hitting free agency. Many of us a gasped the day the contract was signed, and that was before the steroid allegations were brought to light the following year, or the hip injury that has nagged Alex the past two seasons. As he did this year with the Soriano contract, Brian made it known at the A-Rod press conference that it wasn’t a contract he would have signed. He was right, Alex had thus far been paid 91 mil through the first three years of the contract and produced 14.4 WAR, or about 63 mil worth of production. Further, Alex is guaranteed 113 mil over the next 4 seasons (his ages 35-38 seasons) and has another 61 mil guaranteed for the next 3 years after that (ages 39-41). Its widely regarded as one of the worst contracts in Baseball, and while Alex is still a very good, very productive player it’s the type of deal you’re better off not signing.

No grade

November 24, 2007

Signed Dan Giese as a free agent.

Brian takes flyers on no-name pitchers all the time, but this one actually paid off. Called up on June 3rd to be a long man/spot starter, the 31 year old Giese exceeded all expectations. He pitched to a 3.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP appearing in 20 games and starting 3 of them. Maybe it was just a first time through the league effect, but it counts.

Grade-Net plus

November 27, 2007

Signed Cody Ransom as a free agent.

Yankee fans may forget, but 2008 was actually a productive year for Cody Ransom. He produced 0.4 WAR (1.8 mil) playing for MLB minimum and won a few games with his bat late in the year. It was the first 5 weeks of 2009 when he filled in at 3B for the injured Alex Rodriguez that he was overexposed. In 2009, he produced a -0.7 WAR, wiping out the positive production from 2008 and then some.

Grade-Net minus

December 3, 2007

Signed Jose Molina as a free agent.

‘Panda’ was a fave with the pitchers and in the clubhouse, but was another backup who got overexposed when the starter, in this case Jorge Posada, went down with an injury. He produced 0.6 WAR in his 2 seasons with the Yanks (2.4 mil) and was paid about 4 mil. He would have been fine as a backup Catcher, but the bottom line is he didn’t earn his salary.

Grade-Net minus

December 4, 2007

Traded Tyler Clippard to the Washington Nationals. Received Jonathan Albaladejo.

Albaladejo produced a grand total of -0.2 WAR over three seasons with the Yanks, while Tyler Clippard blossomed into a valuable reliever for the Nats in 2010, producing 1.4 WAR. Alby was recently released by the Yanks, so this deal’s a clear win for the Nats.

Grade-Net minus

December 21, 2007

Signed LaTroy Hawkins as a free agent.

Latroy was awful for the Yanks, and Brian should have known better. He had a nice 2007 season pitching in the NL West, but the last time he pitched in the AL East was 2006 in BAL and he got hammered. He was the best pitcher available on a 1 year deal, and Brian wanted to avoid long term commitments so he could work in his up and coming prospects, but Hawkins just didn’t get the job done.

Grade-Net minus

January 4, 2008

Signed Billy Traber as a free agent.

The former 1st round draft pick (#16 overall NY Mets 2000) did little to solve the Yanks need for a Lefty specialist, pitching to a 7.02 ERA after breaking camp with the club out of spring training. Low risk move that provided zero reward.

Grade-Net minus

January 31, 2008

Signed Morgan Ensberg as a free agent.

On paper, looked like a good move. First Base caddy for the aging, addled Jason Giambi who just three years earlier was garnering MVP votes with the Houston Astros. Batted just .203/.263/.243 (.506  OPS) from a corner infield spot. Was released on June 10th by the Yanks and despite catching on with the Indians and Rays, never played in the majors again.

Grade-Net minus

February 1, 2008

Signed Alfredo Aceves as a free agent.

The ‘Mexican Gangster’ was a godsend to the Yanks in 08/09 producing 1.5 WAR (6.7 mil) while making MLB minimum. Big part of their championship teams bullpen in 2009, and whoever scouted him out of Mexico deserves a raise.

Grade-Net plus

March 12, 2008

Signed Chad Moeller as a free agent.

As with Molina, a backup catcher who was forced into more playing time  than he should see due to the injury of Jorge Posada. But injuries are why you have backups around to begin with. Produced 0.1 WAR (300K) while earning around 700K for the season. Small potatoes, but didn’t work out.

Grade-Net minus

June 19, 2008 (Standings)

Signed Sidney Ponson as a free agent.

Ahhh Sir Sidney. Admit it, you miss the chubby lil guy, don’t ya? A mid season desperation move for a starter who bestowed a 5.85 ERA and 1.638 WHIP upon Yankee fans in 15 torturous starts.

Grade-Net minus

July 17, 2008 (Standings)

Signed Richie Sexson as a free agent.

A glittering example of statistical noise. The Yanks were getting killed by Lefties in 2008. Sexson was a horrendously undisciplined hitter who just happened to have good numbers facing Lefties that particular season. His Career platoon splits, however, were much more ambiguous. Brian was desperate, so he tried to see if he could ride the wave a bit longer, and would up wiping out on a jetty. Sexson was painful to watch, struck out in about 1/3 of his PAs with the Yanks and was released in under a month.

Grade-Net minus

July 26, 2008 (Standings)

Traded Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, Ross Ohlendorf and Jose Tabata to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Received Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady.

Complex deal, so I’ll just use WAR. Pitchers in this deal provided modest returns for the Pirates. Karstens has produced a total of 0.8 WAR in his 3 years with the Pirates, McCutchen was given a shot last year and pretty much flopped, producing a -0.6 WAR over 2009/10. Ohlendorf has been a nice addition to the Pirates, producing 1.9 total WAR over the past two seasons. But the centerpiece of the deal was Jose Tabata, and he provided the Buccos with a tidy 2.0 WAR in his rookie season last year.

From the Yankee side, they didn’t even get back modest returns for their investments. Marte has barely pitched, logging just 49.1 IP over three seasons with the team. He produced a grand total of -0.2 WAR, and is expected to miss all of 2011 as well. Nady produced a meager -0.1 WAR in 2008, then quickly hurt his elbow in April of 2009 which required the 2nd TJ surgery of his career. From the Yanks perspective, this was a trade you were much better off not making.

Grade-Net minus

Totals:Net Plus-2/Net Minus-10

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