Within the next few hours, theyankeeu.com will begin redirecting to www.yankeeanalysts.com. I strongly encourage all of our loyal readers to update their bookmarks and RSS feeds to reflect the URL change. I look forward to seeing all of you at the new site!
Within the next 24-48 hours, theyankeeu.com will begin redirecting to www.yankeeanalysts.com. I strongly encourage all of our loyal readers to update their bookmarks and RSS feeds to reflect the URL change. I look forward to seeing all of you at the new site!
As some of you may have already heard, The Yankee U is shutting its doors after two years of existence. While it is often difficult to say goodbye to something that you have put a lot of time and effort into, this is far from a sad occasion. TYU is just getting bigger and better, as we are merging with Larry Koestler’s excellent Yankeeist blog and moving to a new URL at YankeeAnalysts.com. Every ending is just a new beginning, and we hope that this new beginning leads to an even greater blogging experience for our loyal readers. So update your feeds and bookmarks to the URL of the new site at YankeeAnalysts.com, and join us in establishing TYA as one of the premier Yankees blogs on the web.
Decision, decisions..
Yankee GM Brian Cashman had some choice words for Joba Chamberlain as pitchers and catchers reported to camp. The NY Post has the details:
“Anybody who has [minor league] options is not a lock for anything,” Cashman said when asked by The Post if the 25-year-old was a roster-spot lock. “Any player with options has to re-earn everything. You earn more or you earn less — New York or Scranton [Triple-A]. I fully expect Joba to be in our bullpen. If not, he would have worked his way out of it.”
(snip)
Now, Chamberlain, who has three minor league options left, will be fighting for a spot in the pen.
“We won’t decide, he will decide his role,” Cashman said. “Players always dictate [by their performances].”
That is certainly true of all of their young pitchers, but you don’t hear Brian saying these things about Dave Robertson or Ivan Nova. Reports that he showed up in camp this year heavier than last may have been the impetus for these comments, but the Yankee brass has long made a habit of trying to light a fire under Joba for the entire time he’s been with the club. Draft watchers will recall Joba was 300 pounds as a teen in his first year of college, so from day 1 he’s a player who’s been tagged as needing guidance and motivation. When your 46 year old manager is in better shape than a 25 year old player, on a team like the Yankees with their expectations, one can understand why this issue is raised. Whether it’s Chris Britton, Jon Albaladejo or Joba Chamberlain, bad-bodied pitchers seem to always have their glass half empty under this regime.
But how realistic are these threats? Given the fact that Joba’s role has been subjugated to low leverage middle relief, I would take them very seriously. He’s as expendable as it gets on a MLB pitching staff. Which leads us to the next possibility, which is trading him. Again, from the NY Post:
Then there is the possibility the Yankees could trade Chamberlain, who agreed to a one-year, $1.4 million contract to avoid going to arbitration this past offseason. It was the first time he was eligible.
“He still has value,” an AL talent evaluator said. “Teams would want him if he is available. It will be interesting to see how the Yankees pitch him in spring-training games and who from other teams is there only to see him.”
Just wanted to let you folks know I’ll be appearing on Mike Silva’s New York Baseball Digest radio show tonight around 10:30 with a scoop on some big news about this blog. Topics will include the Yankee rotation, the Liriano rumors, and TYU is going to . . . well, you’ll just have to listen to hear the rest.
Guests include Newsday sports reporter Jim Baumbach, who is scheduled to discuss an interview he did with former Mets owner Nelson Doubleday. Mike also has former Yankee and current NJ Bears coach Jim Leyritz booked to appear on his show around 10 PM, in what will be his first local radio appearance since the DWI incident. Now that’s some must-listen radio right there if you ask me. If you’re out on Long Island NY, you can tune in to 1240 WGBB radio, or click this link to hear the show live or as an archived segment.
This is a guest post from John W., who won our Super Bowl Sunday Trivia contest.
One of the best baseball books I have recently been reading is Rob Neyer’s The Big Book of Baseball Blunders. It discusses the stories behind some of baseball’s most famous blunders, real (Washington leaving Walter Johnson in to lose the 1925 World Series) and imagined (Pete Gray costing St. Louis the 1945 pennant, which did not happen). In the book, a blunder is not simply a decision that turned out badly; it also has to have been very questionable from the moment it happened.
The Yankees losing Game 4 of the 2003 World Series on an Alex Gonzalez walkoff home run was not a blunder by itself. The blunder was Joe Torre refusing to use Mariano because it wasn’t a save situation, instead pitching Jeff Weaver. The Nolan Ryan and Jay Buhner trades were not blunders, while the Amos Otis and Fred McGriff deals were.
The aforementioned 2003 blunder is the last one covered in the book, which was published in 2006. The major omission at the time was Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano, which was noted in a few chats. I can’t find the exact quote Neyer used in response, which kills me, but he noted that the trade would only be a major blunder if the Mets lost a division title by a game or two. How eerily prescient.
Let’s flash back to July 30, 2004. The Mets are currently 49-53, 7 games behind Atlanta in the NL East, and 7.5 games back of San Diego in the wild card standings. This is not a buying team by any means. While the team’s ERA+ is a respectable 105, their OPS+ is 87. Yet interim GM Jim Duquette makes two trades for Kris Benson and Zambrano.
(On an historical note, the Mets gave up Jose Bautista in the Benson deal. But Bautista was on his 5th team that season, and had just been acquired that day from Kansas City for Justin Huber. And Pittsburgh had actually lost him to Baltimore in the Rule 5 deal. It took 5 more seasons for him to break out. Not a blunder.
The Benson deal was essentially a wash for both teams; while Benson and Jeff Keppinger only posted a 0.1 WAR combined for the Mets, Bautista and Ty Wigginton managed -1.7 WAR combined for Pittsburgh. The third player the Mets traded, Matt Peterson, is still active in the Florida organization, but has yet to make the majors.
Two other pitchers were also involved in the Zambrano deal. But the other pitcher the Mets received, Bartolome Fortunato, would only pitch 21.2 innings for the team, and Jose Diaz, the other Met pitcher traded, would surface in the ML with Kansas City in 2006. Both are now pitching in the Mexican leagues.)
There was no reason for the Mets to make the Zambrano deal. Yes, to the traditionalists Zambrano wasn’t a bad pitcher; it was thought that he was the ace of a bad team that would thrive with a contender. (Pitching coach Rick Peterson claimed that he could fix everything wrong with Zambrano in 10 minutes, and that Kazmir was at least 3 years away from being major league ready.) His ERA of 4.47, while not great, could be explained as pitching in the toughest division in the AL, and his SO/9 of 7.0 was above average.
But using better stats would disprove this. His walk rate per 9 was 5.4, over 2 higher than league average. Only Nolan Ryan could get away with walking so many batters, and he’s laughably overrated anyway. Zambrano didn’t strike out nearly enough guys to compensate, as exhibited by his 1.29 SO/BB rate. His WHIP was 1.49, also below average. And even using traditional stats, in 2004 he led the AL in walks, hit batsmen, and wild pitches. And remember that he only played 4 out of 6 months in the AL.
Bottom line – not a pitcher worth a highly-touted prospect. Even given TINSTAPP. Another question asked of Neyer was why he did not include Detroit’s 1987 trade of John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander. By every conceivable stat, the Tigers lost that deal. But without Alexander, the team would not have made the playoffs in 1987. Fans forget how good Alexander was, even at age 36; in the five prior seasons he posted a 118 ERA+ and a 1.22 WHIP. And Smoltz, while only 20 and in AA, had a 1.63 WHIP and walked close to 6 batters a game. It was only the next year in AAA that he broke out.
A good GM, at the time, would make that deal in a heartbeat. But Zambrano wasn’t nearly as good as Alexander, and Kazmir wasn’t nearly as bad as Smoltz in the minors. Kazmir was also 20 and in AA, and in 4 starts had a sub-1 WHIP. Even discounting the small sample size, in A+ he had a 1.42 WHIP. While not great, he was striking out over 9 batters per 9, and his SO/BB was above 2 the whole season.
The trade would immediately backfire in a matter of weeks, as Kazmir would debut for Tampa Bay on August 23. (He pitched 5 scoreless innings and picked up the W.) Zambrano would only start 3 games for the Mets that season as the team quickly folded to finish 71-91, 25 games behind Atlanta. Duquette was fired at season’s end, to be replaced by Omar Minaya.
In 2005 the Mets finished 6 games out of the wild card. Kazmir posted a 3.7 WAR to Zambrano’s 0.6. 3 games alone wouldn’t have made up the difference between them and Houston. But having Jose Reyes lead off nearly every game with a .300 OBP, playing Miguel Cairo (-0.3 WAR) more than Kaz Matsui (0.5), and giving Kaz Ishii 16 starts to the tune of a -0.9 WAR (Jae Seo had a 2.4 in fewer innings pitched) didn’t help either.
Where this gets serious is in 2006. Kazmir made the All-Star team and, in the AL East, had a 4.4 WAR. Zambrano tore a tendon in his elbow, but in 21.1 innings had a -0.4 WAR. The Mets made the NLCS, but lost to St. Louis in 7. A playoff series is a crapshoot, but if Kazmir were a Met they would have had a much better shot of winning.
Every Met fan will remember 2007’s Collapse and 2008’s Collapse II. Neither would have happened with Kazmir. (Zambrano would pitch for Toronto and Baltimore in 2007, and has not appeared in an ML game since.)
2007: Mike Pelfrey and Jorge Sosa make 28 starts and combine for a -0.3 WAR. Kazmir has his best season ever to the tune of a 5.8. Six extra wins, and the Mets clinch early in September instead of blowing a 7 game lead.
2008: Pedro Martinez only produces a 0.5 WAR in 20 starts, and spot starter Nelson Figueroa subtracts 0.1. Kazmir has a weaker season than the previous 3, but still gets a 3.5. Three more wins avert the second collapse.
Yes, right now Kazmir sucks hard. Over the last 2 seasons he has posted a combined -0.1 WAR for Tampa Bay and Anaheim. And he’s no longer cheap. Last year he made around $8 million, and he was worth $-3 million.
But for the four years he was both cheap and a (Devil) Ray, he was worth $59.5 million. And the Mets would have made a hell of a lot more real money in the playoffs with him. Their window of opportunity was only open for a few seasons, and with the current situation it’s unlikely the Mets will be contenders in the near future. When Rob Neyer updates his book, the first addition should be Kazmir-for-Zambrano.
Sorry for getting away from this series the past week, but the Pettitte retirement and Liriano rumors were breaking news stories that had to be addressed. I’ll wrap this baby up today in advance of some big news Moshe has for our readers starting tomorrow.
November 10, 2006
Traded Gary Sheffield to the Detroit Tigers. Received Kevin Whelan (minors), Anthony Claggett and Humberto Sanchez.
Sign and trade deal with the Tigers for perpetual malcontent Sheffield. Yanks picked up his 07 option after Sheff played little in 2006 due to injury. Turns out he had one good year left, producing 2.7 WAR in his first season with the Tigers. With the acquisition of Bobby Abreu the Yanks had nowhere to play Sheff (he didn’t want to DH) so the alternative was letting him walk as a FA. Claggett pitched just 2.2 awful innings for the Yanks in 09, Whelan never made the show, and the oft-injured Sanchez remained so as a Yankee and was released in November 2009. Cash gets points for creativity, and the three prospects were in all likelihood no better than the one he would have gained had he taken the draft pick.
Grade-Neutral
November 12, 2006
Traded Jaret Wright and cash to the Baltimore Orioles. Received Chris Britton.
Roster spot clearing move for Andy Pettitte, which was largely neutral on both sides. Wright produced 0.0 WAR in his one season with the O’s and was soon out of baseball. Britton was a low leverage reliever who spent most of his time riding the bus from Scranton to NY. Considering that the O’s paid Wright 7 mil for 100K of production, I’ll give Brian credit for getting him off his books.
Grade-Net plus
December 8, 2006
Signed Andy Pettitte as a free agent.
After spending the 04-06 seasons with the Astros, a wrong was righted and Andy was brought back to pinstripes. Easy decision, Astros owner Drayton McLayne didn’t intend to bring Andy (or Roger Clemens) back, and Brian pounced on the opportunity.
Grade-Net plus
December 19, 2006
Purchased Kei Igawa from Hanshin Tigers (Japan Central).
Reaction move to being outmaneuvered and outbid by the Red Sox for Dice-K (which turned out to be a 100 mil mistake by Theo). 40 mil that produced -0.2 in value for a 5 year deal. Utter disaster.
Grade-Net minus
January 8, 2007
Signed Doug Mientkiewicz as a free agent.
First base caddy for Jason Giambi, did a nice job in his one season with the team. Plus defender (+4.0) who surprisingly hit a little (+2.5) as well. Overall produced 0.9 WAR (3.6 mil) for a 1.5 mil salary.
Grade-Net plus
January 9, 2007
Traded Randy Johnson and cash to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Received Alberto Gonzalez, Steven Jackson, Ross Ohlendorf and Luis Vizcaino.
Brian was starting out with two strikes from a negotiating standpoint. Randy wanted out of New York and needed back surgery that projected to keep him out well into the following season. Johnson never quite fit into the Bronx from day one and never produced as anticipated (ERA+ 112 and 90 as Yank/Career 136) though Randy did manage to squeeze out 8.2 WAR over his two seasons with the team. Johnson was good for the D-Backs, producing 5.5 WAR in just 240.2 innings spread out over 2 seasons. From the Yankee side,
Ross Ohlendorf was given a few chances with the Yanks, produced little and was traded in the Nady-Marte deal with the Pirates. Alberto Gonzalez played little with the team and was subsequently flipped for Jhonny Nunez, who was part of the Nick Swisher deal. Steven Jackson never pitched for the Yanks and was selected off waivers in 2009 by the Pirates. The key to the deal was Vizcaino, who unfortunately became a Torre casualty. He hurt his shoulder by August and was useless thereafter. He left the team as a FA at the end of the season.
Grade-Net minus
May 6, 2007 (Standings)
Signed Roger Clemens as a free agent.
Brian went back to the well with Roger, but should have known from the Randy Johnson experience that pitching in the NL West and AL East are very different endeavors. Roger had little left, producing just 1.8 WAR (7.3 mil) for a whopping 28 mil salary that was pro-rated to about 17.4 mil.
Grade-Net minus
July 21, 2007 (Standings)
Traded Jeff Kennard (minors) to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Received Jose Molina.
Kennard never pitched in the majors, while Molina was a solid if unspectacular backup for the aging Jorge Posada. Nice move by Cash.
Grade-Net plus
July 31, 2007 (Standings)
Traded Scott Proctor to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Wilson Betemit.
Betemit was a neutral move for the Yanks, filling a need for a backup infielder at a minimal cost. Proctor was the one that got away for the Dodgers, having sent him to the Yanks in 2004 for a ready for retirement Robin Ventura. But the real upside was when Cashman flipped Betemit as the centerpiece of the Nick Swisher deal. Proctor had the misfortune of being abused by Joe Torre on two teams. After a good start with the Dodgers in 07 under Grady Little, Scott was horrendous in 08 under Torre and wound up getting TJ surgery soon thereafter.
Grade-Net plus
Total Grades:
Net plus-5
Net minus-3
Whenever discussing the Yankee farm system, talk quickly gravitates to the Killer B’s. Manny Banuelos has been ranked at the head of the pack by most outlets, due to his age, poise, performance and handedness. Dellin ranks 2nd on most lists, with one notable exception. Yesterday, in his must-read recap of the Yankee farm system Mike Axisa ranked Andrew Brackman ahead of Dellin, despite a wide gap between the two in terms of performance. His main reason for the ranking is an oft-repeated tag that gets applied to Dellin, that he just can’t seem to stay healthy.
But is this true? Is his health history really that different than other Yankee prospects who don’t carry the ‘injury prone’ tag? Let’s compare Dellin’s track record and Andrew Brackman and see if this is justified. First, here’s Dellin’s minor league history:
Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB 2006 18 Yankees GULF Rk NYY 0 1 .000 1.16 7 7 0 0 0 0 23.1 14 5 3 1 7 27 1 1 2 90 0.900 5.4 0.4 2.7 10.4 3.86 2007 19 StatenIsland NYPL A- NYY 1 2 .333 3.60 6 6 0 0 0 0 25.0 24 11 10 0 17 29 2 1 3 113 1.640 8.6 0.0 6.1 10.4 1.71 2008 20 2 Teams 2 Lgs A-Rk NYY 9 5 .643 3.92 25 24 0 0 0 0 121.2 100 64 53 9 62 0 141 11 3 11 529 1.332 7.4 0.7 4.6 10.4 2.27 2009 21 Tampa FLOR A+ NYY 2 5 .286 5.48 11 11 0 0 0 0 44.1 48 29 27 2 27 0 44 2 0 3 206 1.692 9.7 0.4 5.5 8.9 1.63 2010 22 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+-AA NYY 8 1 .889 2.11 17 17 0 0 0 0 85.1 53 25 20 4 22 0 108 4 0 6 333 0.879 5.6 0.4 2.3 11.4 4.91 5 Seasons 5 Seasons 5 Seasons 20 14 .588 3.39 66 65 0 0 0 0 299.2 239 134 113 16 135 0 349 20 5 25 1271 1.248 7.2 0.5 4.1 10.5 2.59
Next, let’s look at Andrew Brackman’s track record in pro ball, including his College days. Here it is:
| Year | Team | Lg | Age | Lvl | Org | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | SHO | GF | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | WP | WHIP | H9 | HR9 | BB9 | SO9 | ||||||||||||
| 2005 | NC State | NCAA | 19 | NCAA | - | 4 | 0 | 2.09 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43.0 | 32 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 18 | 43 | 3 | 1.16 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||
| 2006 | NC State | NCAA | 20 | NCAA | - | 1 | 3 | 6.35 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28.1 | 37 | 25 | 20 | 2 | 19 | 32 | 7 | 1.98 | 11.8 | 0.6 | 6.0 | 10.2 | ||||||||||||
| 2007 | NC State | NCAA | 21 | NCAA | - | 6 | 4 | 3.81 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 78.0 | 78 | 41 | 33 | 7 | 37 | 74 | 12 | 1.47 | 9.0 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||
| 2009 | Charleston (Sc) | SAL | 23 | A | nyy | 2 | 12 | 5.91 | 29 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 106.2 | 106 | 79 | 70 | 8 | 76 | 103 | 26 | 1.71 | 8.9 | 0.7 | 6.4 | 8.7 | ||||||||||||
| 2010 | Tampa | FSL | 24 | A+ | nyy | 5 | 4 | 5.10 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60.0 | 67 | 38 | 34 | 5 | 9 | 56 | 6 | 1.27 | 10.1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 8.4 | ||||||||||||
| Trenton | East | 24 | AA | nyy | 5 | 7 | 3.01 | 15 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 80.2 | 77 | 38 | 27 | 3 | 30 | 70 | 6 | 1.33 | 8.6 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 7.8 | |||||||||||||
| Minor League Totals | 12 | 23 | 4.77 | 56 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 247 | 250 | 155 | 131 | 16 | 115 | 229 | 38 | 1.48 | 9.10 | 0.58 | 4.18 | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||
Why does Brackman escape the “injury prone” tag, yet it gets applied to Dellin? Brackman had a much more severe elbow injury (reconstructive/TJ) than Betances (ligament enhancement). Andrew got a late start in baseball, but looking at his first 5 seasons in professional baseball regardless of age he has logged less innings (247 IP) than Dellin (299 IP) did in his initial five. Not only has Dellin logged more innings, but he’s done so at a younger age. Further, he has dominated the minors in a way that Andrew Brackman has yet to do. It is encouraging to see Brackman cross the 140 inning threshold, but the only reason why Betances hasn’t done so was the timing of his injury. Dellin missed parts of two seasons with his elbow injury, while Brackman had TJ surgery immediately after signing with the Yanks and missed the entire 2008 campaign.
One final misconception needs to be cleared up about Dellin Betances. From a BP interview last year:
DL: To close, is there anything you’d like people to know about you?
DB: Just one thing: Everybody thinks I was born in Brooklyn, but I was actually born in Washington Heights—my first home. Then I moved to the lower East Side, to downtown Manhattan, so the lower East Side is my home. You’re probably the first one who knows that. I mean, I love Brooklyn. I played in Brooklyn from age 13, I went to high school in Brooklyn, so it’s like my second home, but the lower East Side is where I started playing baseball. That is one thing that everybody should know.
He’s from Manhattan, not Brooklyn.
This is the exciting time of year when many respected prospect raters (and plenty of intelligent amateurs) release their preseason top 100 lists. The Yankee farm system had a strong year that was reflected in the high rankings of many Yankee prospects on these various lists, and an organizational ranking around #5, depending who you ask (Jim Callis had them at #5 Keith Law was a little lower on them, and Frankie Piliere had them at #4). I just wanted to take a moment to compare the placement of the Yankee farmhands on the top 100 lists from various sources, to see which prospects have more of a consensus, and which ones remain controversial. The lists I am going to use are from Keith Law (from ESPN), John Manuel (Baseball America, only a top 50 list), Frankie Piliere (a former scout, writes for AOL fanhouse), John Sickels (doesn’t have a full ranking, but uses letter grades and Project Prospect. Let’s take a look at what these various sources have to say about the top Yankee prospects (apologies that my table looks like crap).
| Keith Law | John Manuel* | Frankie Piliere | Project Prospect | John Sickels | Average | Standard Deviation | |
| Jesus Montero | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | A | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| Manny Banuelos | 12 | 20 | 13 | 34 | B | 19.75 | 10.1 |
| Gary Sanchez | 68 | 17 | 34 | 74 | B+ | 48.25 | 27.3 |
| Dellin Betances | 73 | 18 | 44 | NR | B+ | 45 | 27.5 |
| Andrew Brackman | 88 | NR | 60 | NR | B- | 74 | N/A |
| Austin Romine | NR | NR | NR | 86 | B- | N/A | N/A |
| David Adams | NR | NR | NR | 97 | C+ | N/A | N/A |
*Only a top 50 list
What can we learn from looking at these rankings? A few things are pretty evident right away. The consensus on Montero is pretty solid, with everyone having him in the 4-5 range (and he would likely rank similarly from Sickels, though there are 7 A-rated hitting prospects).
For Banuelos, too, the consensus is pretty strong. Sickels and Project Prospect are the outliers here. John has explained his concern about Banuelos having to do with durability questions, presumably due to his size. To me, that’s a pretty ridiculous argument, as Manny has never had any arm problems, and has smooth mechanics. As for Project Prospect, they still like the guy a lot, and I would almost have expected him to be a little higher, as they tend to have a very floor-heavy list (and I think Manny, size withstanding, is considered pretty safe as pitching prospects go).
Sanchez has wide variation, and this is understandable for a 17 year-old catcher in Rookie ball. Some sources, such as Manuel and Piliere in particular, appear enamored with his ceiling and less concerned about his distance from the majors. It’s a matter of philosophy with a guy like Sanchez, though it is worthy of note that Manuel and Piliere in are often higher on Yankee prospects than most. These guys will look smart if Sanchez pulls a Montero and continues to tear up full season ball, but they are also taking a risk on a guy who played most of the season in rookie ball at 17. Project Prospect has him the lowest at 74, which I still think is a respectable rating for a guy with as little experience as Sanchez.
Betances too is exceptionally polarizing, ranked as high as 17 on Manuel’s list, and did not make Project Prospect’s top 100 list at all. This too is a reflection of the sizable distance between Betances’ ceiling and floor, through his risk comes more from his injury history than a lack of experience.
Andrew Brackman made Klaw’s and Frankie’s list (and I would guess he would have been on a John Manuel top 100 list too), and the rating of 60 from Frankie is explained by the glowing scouting report that he wrote this summer.
Romine and Adams are both mentioned on Project Prospect’s list, and they share the common theme of being pretty close to major league ready with the bat, and good bets to stay at an up-the-middle defensive position. It is understandable that Adams missed the other lists due to injury and Romine missed due to a mediocre 2nd half.
With rankings like these, it’s important not to sweat the small stuff, but overall, despite their variations, these lists paint a rosy picture of the Yankee farm, which bodes well for the organization’s future without the “Core Four.”
(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog).
This morning, a clean cut Eric Chavez trotted out to third base at the Yankees’ spring training complex in Tampa and began taking ground balls. Eager to embark on a second career, Chavez told the assembled group of beat writers that he has “a new heartbeat over here”, referring to his new team and anticipated role as a backup player.
Already an “old man” in baseball circles, thanks mostly to debilitating back and shoulder injuries that robbed him of a once promising career, it’s hard to remember that Chavez was once part of the heart and soul of a young Athletics team that made the playoffs in the first four seasons of the last decade. During the first year of the string, Chavez was a standout in the 2000 ALDS, batting .333 and knocking in four runs against the Yankees. However, during that series, Chavez made more noise with his mouth than his bat.
After losing game 4 in an 11-1 route, the older Yankee team had to fly across country to play a fifth and deciding game the very next day. While warming up on the field before the game, a larger than life image of Chavez appeared on the Oakland Coliseum scoreboard. The segment was a pre-game interview with the confident third baseman, who had gone 2-5 with two RBIs in the previous game. When asked about the prospect of ending the Yankees’ dynasty, Chavez’ response was very matter of fact and dripping with an air of inevitability. “I don’t mind at all. I mean, they’ve won enough times,” Chavez’ voice boomed throughout the stadium. “It’s time for some other people to have some glory here. But, no, they had a great run.”
According to reports at the time, the Yankees took immediate notice of Chavez’ proclamation, especially one word: “had”. Although the team probably didn’t need the extra motivation, the brash eulogy proved to be premature. Not only did the Yankees go on to beat the A’s 7-5 in the deciding fifth game, but Chavez made the last out that sent the Yankees onward toward another championship. What’s more, the Yankees knocked the Athletics out of the playoffs in 2001 for good measure. Over the rest of his time in Oakland, Chavez and the Athletics would only win one postseason series. Meanwhile, the Yankees would win two more championships and four A.L. pennants. So much for ending the dynasty.
I think it’s fitting that the last out was from the guy who insinuated that we were over the hill. It’s my understanding that we’re not done yet.” – Bernie Williams, quoted in The New York Times, October 9, 2000
The Yankees never did pass the torch to the Athletics. Eventually, the big three pitching staff of Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder as well as offensive standouts like Jason Giambi, and Miguel Tejada all moved on from the cost conscious A’s. Amid all the movement, however, Chavez remained. In March 2004, the Athletics signed their talented young third baseman to a six-year/$66 million extension.
At the time, the contract extension seemed like a shrewd move by the Athletics. Only 25 at the time, Chavez was not only a potent hitter, but also a bona fide Gold Glover at third (an earlier generation’s Evan Longoria), making him one of the game’s best all-around players. Almost immediately after signing the extension, however, Chavez began to suffer from a string of injuries. First, a broken hand in 2004 caused him to miss over 30 games in what was shaping up to be his best season. Then, a series of shoulder and back injuries gradually reduced him to a shell of his former self. Over the final three years of his contract, Chavez earned $35 million but only played in 64 games.
One decade after brashly declaring an end to the Yankees’ dynasty, things have come full circle. Now, it’s Chavez who is at the end of his string hoping to revive his career. Nothing is guaranteed, however. Chavez’ deal with the Yankees is only a minor league contract, so he’ll have to make the team to earn the $1.5 million salary, not to mention $4 million in various incentives.
Because he has missed so much time over the past three years, it really makes little sense to run projections to evaluate Chavez’ potential contribution, but on a gut level, it seems as if he can be a valuable member of the bench, assuming, of course, that he can stay healthy. Will Chavez’ new heartbeat extend the life to his waning career? It’s probably a crap shoot at best, but if he is able to carve out a niche as a productive bench player, Chavez will have proven wrong the accounts of an early demise…just like the Yankees did in 2000.
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