Thanks to everyone for their warm welcomes and hospitality. I’m sure I’ll be receiving your deepest and most virulent filled e-mails within days and alienating scores of you in just a few paragraphs, but thank you. Also should you come across any grammatical mistakes, spelling or anything of that sort, be kind enough to send me an e-mail about it, preferably 2 pages, double spaced that include notations and a bibliography that specifies which MLA handbook you’re using. I’ll be running it through Turnitin.com so be sure to use your own words. Thanks.
Anyhow, I wanted my first post to be about something that’s on my mind constantly concerning this team which is this: In the coming years as the nucleus of the current team passes into old age, how will Brian Cashman restock the team with young talent while maintaining the same level of success? Is that even possible? Personally I have no idea (you’ll be hearing this from me a lot) but I’m really excited to see what happens.
I think without doubt this is obviously the penultimate challenge for the Yankees moving forward. It’s really no secret the team as currently constituted is built around aging expensive stars. Here are the scary details:
2013 Payroll Obligations
| NAME | AGE (in 2013) | SALARY |
| Alex Rodriguez | 37 | $28 Million |
| Mark Teixeira | 33 | $22.5 Million |
| CC Sabathia | 32 | $23 Million |
| AJ Burnett | 36 | $16.5 Million |
| Robinson Cano | 30 | $15 Million (team option) |
| Derek Jeter | 39 | $17 Million |
| Jorge Posada | 41 | ???? |
That’s 123 million dollars on 6 players past their peaks (although Sabathia and Cano are probably still right there). Posada, if he’s still around at this point, would probably have a pretty meager salary in some Jason Varitek type roll so he doesn’t really count. You could put Granderson in here as well- he’ll be 32 and have a 13 million dollar team option. Now I think you could argue that even past their primes, these players are still likely to be pretty valuable in 2013. It’s only 2 seasons away. But if 2010 is a harbinger for Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter in any way, it may be a scarier picture to imagine.
This is why I think Jesus Montero is such an integral part of this team’s future (even if he’s technically not even on the team). He’ll be 23 years old in 2013 and if he reaches his potential, a middle of the order cost controlled bat. Think about this: Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano are the only Yankee position players in the past 15 years to post 5 win seasons (rWAR) while being 25 or younger. Montero will have until 2015 to match that. Yes, this is certainly hubristic on my part, putting the cart before the horse and all that but Montero is a rare asset for any team, let alone the Yankees.
So you can see why I’ve been against trading Montero for another 30+ pitcher this off season. I think Montero will be a big part of Cashman’s plan to turn the team younger, a goal he’s had since 2006 or so. For me, Montero is the center piece, the guy around which Cashman can add and build for the future. If Derek Jeter has been the central figure of the team for the past 15 years, Montero COULD play that role for the next 15. He has the sort of potential to be a “franchise” player”.
However I think it would be extremely myopic to expect this entire process to take off without a hitch. I’m sure there will be plenty of growing pains. Looking at the 2010 rotation, you could make a case this will be one of them. Sergio Mitre and Ivan Nova are not the answers to any long term questions but may be more like short term placeholders. Patience will play a big key in all of this. Can New York fans handle that? Can they live with sacrificing, even slightly, short term gains for long term opportunities? We’ll find out soon enough.
I also know that Brian Cashman is a much smarter man than I am and the Yankees are uniquely suited to weather this transition, more so than any other team. With the depth of pitching prospects in the minors right now there will be some conceivable rotation candidates emerging as well as trade bait to further propel this drive. There is certainly going to be nothing like a “rebuilding” period for the Yankees. I would hope anyway. In any other division there would probably not be any need to seriously worry about their position in the standings. But with Boston, Tampa Bay and even Toronto (!?) It is a concern.
I’ll admit freely I don’t have any answers just plenty of questions. Even if you reject the notion that this is a serious concern, on some level, it still is a concern. It probably won’t happen all at once or be without a few missteps and mistakes. I would guess it will at times be frustrating and invoke plenty of invective from fans. For me though I’ll try and remain patient and keep perspective. I’m looking forward to seeing how it all plays out.
One important thing to remember is that the primes of players has been inching closer to the 34-35 range as opposed to the traditional 32. That certainly won’t be the case for everyone, but I don’t think we need to be quite as worried about a team heavy in 32-35 year olds as we would have been 5-10 years ago.
Advancements in training, sports medicine, nutrition, etc. should help the next generation of “past their prime” players continue to post their typical numbers for a little bit longer than expected. Craig(Quote)
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Sean P Reply:
January 13th, 2011 at 8:31 pm
Yeah I agree with that but we’ve seen plenty of stars start to fade in their mid to late 30′s. I don’t think it’ll be any sort of crash and burn scenario though, there should be plenty of production there. Sean P(Quote)
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Welcome aboard, Sean. Anyone who preaches perspective ‘gets it’ when it comes to Baseball.
One question. Does a “Varitek roll” come with poppy seeds or only plain? Steve S.(Quote)
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Sean P Reply:
January 13th, 2011 at 8:37 pm
Haha, The Varitek roll is my new sushi concoction, which consists of 3 week old whale blubber, fish eggs, seaweed and East River crab topped with a delectable sampling of real Varitek chin pubes. Sean P(Quote)
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In thinking about the farm, it’s useful to think what a realistic metric for success should be, so we can grade Brian Cashman and the front office. Everyone wants to win the WS every year, but that is not a realistic metric, because we can’t win every year. Even if the payroll was $300 million, we couldn’t win it all each year. Furthermore, the metric should encompass more than one year. Otherwise, it would make sense to trade the whole farm to win in 2011. Here is my proposal: look out five years, and aim to make the play-offs in 4 out of 5 of those years, to win the ALCS 3 times, and to win it all twice. Is that too ambitious? Tom Swift(Quote)
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The Yanks have wasted their salary advantage over the Red Sox with stupid deals for declining players. Let’s hope that at least 2 of the Excellent 8 (3 Bs, 2 Ns, Stoney, Warren and Phelps) pan out to provide a cheap back of the rotation. matcohen(Quote)
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Kevin Ocala, Fl Reply:
January 13th, 2011 at 8:10 pm
How many players have the Yankees traded away that have had “significant” impact in baseball? In other words, what “stupid deals” are you referring too? Kevin Ocala, Fl(Quote)
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Hopefully, Arod will still be OPS’ing near .900 and playing half his games at the DH slot, and Posada will be nothing more than a pleasant memory. Posada’s 2013 salary could be better allocated to paying a solid defensive 3B /utlity player who could alleviate Arod.
Its AJ that worries me. We have no idea how he’ll perform in 2011. It could possibly be a repeat of the epically bad as 2010. How AJ could stay in the 2013 rotation is beyond me even if he’s making beaucoup bucks. Reggie C.(Quote)
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Sean P Reply:
January 13th, 2011 at 8:40 pm
Certainly is a concern. I hope you’re right about Arod because he’ll be around until 2017(!) making big money. The tricky scenario is what will happen with Arod/Jeter can no longer play every day? How far away is that? How do you keep Arods bat in the lineup while Montero is getting plenty of DH time? Lots of good questions, I’m glad I don’t have to answer them. Sean P(Quote)
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Welcome Sean! Looking forward to your writing. Eric(Quote)
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Well written analysis Sean! Don’t worry too much Sean, unless the US economy totally tanks (possible), the Yankees can afford to shift important/expensive players into lesser roles or else eat their contracts. Or to put it another way, if the economy tanks I’m not worrying about the Yankees. If it doesn’t, I don’t care about the organization having more assets to write-off on their taxes… Kevin Ocala, Fl(Quote)
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Sean P Reply:
January 13th, 2011 at 8:34 pm
The financial advantage definitely helps, no question. Fewer and fewer free agents are hitting the market in their primes though and teams that do end up signing these guys to big contracts wind up paying a lot for the twilight of their careers. I think Cashman has done a pretty good job of juggle free agency signings, trades and using the farm to fill in the remaining gaps. Sean P(Quote)
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