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A look at the Yankees' projected 25-man roster

Posted by Eric Schultz at 5:00 pm 14 Responses »
Jan 212011

With the signing of Andruw Jones as a dangerous bench bat/4th outfielder, I thought it wouldn’t be a bad idea to take a look at the possible composition of the Yankees’ likely 25-man roster, if the season were to begin today.    Most of the spots are set at this point, but there are a few that may still be up for grabs.  Let’s take a look first at the players who either definitely have spots on the team, or are most likely to.

Postion Players

Definite: Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Russell Martin, Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner, Andruw Jones.  (10)

Likely:  Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena (2)

Starting Pitchers

Definite:  CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Phil Hughes (3)

Likely:  Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre (2)

Relief Pitchers

Definite:  Mariano Rivera, Rafael Soriano, Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Pedro Feliciano, Boone Logan (6)

This yields a total of 23 likely occupied spots on the 25-man.  One of the two remaining spots will likely go to a position player, and the other to a bullpen arm/long reliever.  Who are the best candidates for these spots?  Let’s take a look at the remaining contenders, as well as their pros and cons, in order of likelihood of making the team.

Bench players

Eduardo Nunez:  He’s a better hitter than Pena, but less valuable in the field.  Nunez and Pena’s ability to play all the infield positions is pretty useful on the bench, but I can’t imagine them wanting 2 utilitymen with weak bats on the bench.  For a utility player, I would take Pena’s glove over Nunez’s bat.

Brandon Laird:  Laird could be a useful backup at 1st base or 3rd base (I’d rather have him in the lineup than Penez), and is more dangerous with the stick than Nunez or Pena.  Probably a long shot because he only has 31 games of AAA experience, but I like that his skillset is not really redundant with Pena’s as Nunez’s is.

Jesus Montero:  We’ve heard about everything this kid does well with the bat, and everything that he does poorly behind the dish.  I can’t see him being called up to sit on the bench, but for hypothetical roster construction, I would take him over Cervelli on the team anyday.  I imagine he’ll get a chance to get some more AAA seasoning while the Yankees see what they have in Russell Martin.  However, if he continues to tear the cover off the ball in AAA, he may force his way up soon enough.

Greg Golson:  He became a favorite of mine last year after his ridiculous throw from rightfield to nail Carl Crawford, and if the Yankees decide to carry a 5th outfielder/pinch runner, Golson could be the leading candidate.  However, with the Jones signing, I don’t see Golson being utilized enough to be worth the roster spot.  His defense gives him an edge over Colin Curtis, even though Curtis’s bat may be more useful.

Bullpen

Romulo Sanchez:  Of the other pitchers on the 40-man, Sanchez has the most major league experience.  Is he better than Phelps/Noesi/Brackman?  In the long-term, no way, but he could be useful in the short term to soak up some innings (and with his fastball averaging 95 last season, he can throw some gas).

After Sanchez, there are a whole bunch of guys without much big league experience who could take the long man spot.  Dellin Betances, Andrew Brackman, David Phelps and Hector Noesi likely will be kept as starters in the minors, but someone like Ryan Pope could earn the long man spot with a strong spring.  One sleeper to make the team could be Brian Schlitter, who was claimed off of waivers from the Cubs (despite a mediocre debut this season, so maybe Larry Rothschild saw something he liked).  Mark Prior is another sleeper, and likely more of a feel-good story at this point, but I’ll be pulling for him.

Conclusions

The Yankees do have some big choices to make with their remaining roster spots.  Of highest importance is determining how to handle Jesus Montero, and I imagine (and hope) that they will send him to AAA to play full-time if they decide he’s not ready to play every day in the bigs.  Pitching depth looks weak, but the addition of a legitimate back-end starter (Justin Duchscherer?) would push Sergio Mitre or Ivan Nova to the long man role, which would make things look less horrible.  There are some intriguing options for additional bench bats, depending on the direction the Yankees want to go with the roster (Flexibility?  Nunez.  Power?  Laird.  Speed and defense?  Golson).  This is certainly not an incredibly exciting subject, but barring a major pitching acquisition, these decisions will occupy a lot of my attention.

The Readiness of the Killer B's

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 8 Responses »
Jan 212011

ESPN New York writer Wallace Matthews and I had a civil back and forth Wednesday and Thursday over the readiness of the Yankees’ trio of starting pitching prospects Manny Banuelos, Andrew Brackman, and Dellin Betances. Matthews indicated, with no real justification, that the Yankees feel both Banuelos and Betances are more ready to contribute than Brackman is. Matthews indicated that this isn’t his personal feeling, but the organization’s. Either way, I’ve got to disagree here.

Betances and Brackman are both on the 40-man roster as of right now, and Betances has more innings pitched, but he’s also been in the system longer. It’s worth nothing that Betances has 299 minor league innings since 2006 while Brackman has 247.1 between just 2009 and 2010. Banuelos, for the record, has 215.2.

In terms of innings, we’ve got to give the advantage to Brackman, and that’s the biggest factor when thinking about readiness for the Major Leagues. Since having Tommy John Surgery, Brackman’s had back to back years of 100+ innings pitched (106.2 in ’09, 140.2 in ’10). Betances has done that just one time (121 IP in ’08), as has Banuelos (109 in ’09; though he did have 89.2 innings in 2010, including his stint in the AzFL).

Of course, pitching the innings isn’t the only thing that counts; it matters where those innings are pitched. Brackman pitched 80.2 innings in AA Trenton in 2010 (60.0 for A+ Tampa), while Betances and Banuelos only got brief stints (14.1 IP and 15.1 IP respectively) in the Eastern League.

I’d imagine that both Betances and Banuelos will start the year with Trenton, while Brackman will start the year with AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. This, along with the innings and experience factors, means that Brackman is the closest to giving the Yankees any sort of meaningful contribution.

Of course, we can’t talk about their readiness without talking about the awesome potential each one of these guys has. Brackman and Betances are HUGE and have great velocity. Banuelos, a small lefty, has every bit of upside that the other two have. Of the three, I’d say Banuelos has the best chance of the three to make it as a starter in the bigs. He’s got time to add size and the fact that the at least pitched in AA at 19 is an accomplishment to be praised. He’s definitely moving faster than the other two are, but Brackman’s still closest. If we see any of these guys in the Bronx in 2011, it’s going to be Brackman.

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Is Andruw Jones a HOFer?

Posted by Steve S. at 7:00 am 7 Responses »
Jan 212011

With the Yanks officially signing Andruw Jones yesterday, I took a look at his numbers and began to wonder if he has date with Cooperstown in his future. He was an elite player with the bat during his prime, and his reputation as a CF is well known. At first glance, his offensive numbers seem to fall a bit short, but his outsized reputation as the games best defender at a premium defensive position made me think the modern defensive metrics and WAR that take defense into account might be more kind to him. Here’s his offensive numbers courtesy of BR:

Year                      Age            Tm            Lg    G   PA   AB    R    H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB   SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+   TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB   Pos      Awards
1996                       19           ATL            NL   31  113  106   11   23   7  1   5   13   3  0   7   29 .217 .265 .443 .709   79   47   1   0  0  0   0                98
1997                       20           ATL            NL  153  467  399   60   92  18  1  18   70  20 11  56  107 .231 .329 .416 .745   93  166  11   4  5  3   2 *98/7       RoY-5
1998                       21           ATL            NL  159  631  582   89  158  33  8  31   90  27  4  40  129 .271 .321 .515 .836  116  300  10   4  1  4   8    *8          GG
1999                       22           ATL            NL  162  679  592   97  163  35  5  26   84  24 12  76  103 .275 .365 .483 .848  113  286  12   9  0  2  11    *8          GG
2000                       23           ATL            NL  161  729  656  122  199  36  6  36  104  21  6  59  100 .303 .366 .541 .907  125  355  12   9  0  5   0    *8   ASMVP-8GG
2001                       24           ATL            NL  161  693  625  104  157  25  2  34  104  11  4  56  142 .251 .312 .461 .772   94  288  10   3  0  9   3    *8          GG
2002                       25           ATL            NL  154  659  560   91  148  34  0  35   94   8  3  83  135 .264 .366 .513 .878  127  287  14  10  0  6   4  *8/D  ASMVP-16GG
2003                       26           ATL            NL  156  659  595  101  165  28  2  36  116   4  3  53  125 .277 .338 .513 .851  117  305  18   5  0  6   2    *8  ASMVP-13GG
2004                       27           ATL            NL  154  646  570   85  149  34  4  29   91   6  6  71  147 .261 .345 .488 .833  112  278  24   3  0  2   9    *8          GG
2005                       28           ATL            NL  160  672  586   95  154  24  3  51  128   5  3  64  112 .263 .347 .575 .922  136  337  19  15  0  7  13    *8 ASMVP-2GGSS
2006                       29           ATL            NL  156  669  565  107  148  29  0  41  129   4  1  82  127 .262 .363 .531 .894  126  300  13  13  0  9   9  *8/D  ASMVP-11GG
2007                       30           ATL            NL  154  659  572   83  127  27  2  26   94   5  2  70  138 .222 .311 .413 .724   87  236  16   8  0  9   4    *8          GG
2008                       31           LAD            NL   75  238  209   21   33   8  1   3   14   0  1  27   76 .158 .256 .249 .505   35   52   5   1  0  1   0               8/D
2009                       32           TEX            AL   82  331  281   43   60  18  0  17   43   5  1  45   72 .214 .323 .459 .782  100  129   7   2  0  3   3             D7/39
2010                       33           CHW            AL  107  328  278   41   64  12  1  19   48   9  2  45   73 .230 .341 .486 .827  119  135  15   3  0  2   0              987D
15 Seasons         15 Seasons    15 Seasons    15 Seasons 2025 8173 7176 1150 1840 368 36 407 1222 152 59 834 1615 .256 .338 .488 .826  111 3501 187  89  6 68                    68
162 Game Avg.   162 Game Avg. 162 Game Avg. 162 Game Avg.  162  654  574   92  147  29  3  33   98  12  5  67  129 .256 .338 .488 .826  111  280  15   7  0  5                     5

His career went south at such a young age (30) and his experience in Tinseltown was such a disaster that it’s easy to dismiss him. It’s safe to say the beat writers in Los Angeles won’t be voting for him anytime soon. But it’s important to remember he was playing and producing at an elite level from age 21. For a 9 year period from 1998-2006 he was widely recognized as the best defensive centerfielder in the game and hit 30+ HRs seven times. Had he been called up to the bigs later and done that from ages 24-33, people might view the arc of his career differently. But that shouldn’t matter. The numbers are what they are, and a 9 year stretch of dominance at your position puts you in the conversation for Cooperstown.

But the advanced metrics make the best case for Andruw. In terms of defense, his reputation was well founded.  During the peak of his career he was the best defensive player in Baseball, period. From 1998-2006 he lead all fielders with a 19.8 UZR-150 and 97.2 UZR. The only player in the game that was even remotely close was Adrian Beltre (19.0/90.1) the next closest after him was Scott Rolen (16.9/71.9) both of whom played 3B. He averaged 6.75 WAR each season from 1998-2006 and has 70.5 total for his career (87th all time). To put that in some sort of context, that puts him ahead of HOF Hank Greenberg (68.2) sure fire HOFers  Mike Piazza (68.2) Derek Jeter (70.4) and recent inductee Roberto Alomar (68.2). He is virtually identical to that of Mark McGwire (70.6) who is primarily being excluded for steroid allegations. He’s still just 33, so if he plays a few more years he should finish his career in the neighborhood of greats like Manny Ramirez (72.2) and HOFers Ernie Banks (74.1) Robin Yount (74.1) and ahead of all time greats Duke Snider (71.7) and Yogi Berra (71.4). Though I would be the first to admit there are many other non-HOF names that he is bunched in with once you get past the top 60 WAR players.

BRs black ink/grey ink Hall of Fame Monitor has him falling a bit short, but that measure only looks at batting. When you add his outstanding defense at a premium position, it may put him over the top. Andruw looks like the type of candidate who will have to take time to build a case. He’s not a no-brainer, and voters will have to be comfortable with advanced fielding metrics for his candidacy to build steam. Maybe he’ll be the next Bert Blyleven, and someone like Rich Lederer will take up his cause by promoting UZR-150 data along with his offense. Personally I’m on the fence with Andruw, but he’s close enough where I’m listening intently to any who want to make his case.

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