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Yankees to Sign Jones

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 7:44 pm 1 Response »
Jan 202011

Our long national nightmare is over! After a few weeks of speculating and negotiating, the Yankees are set to sign Andruw Jones to a deal. It’s going to pay Jones $2 million in base salary along with a possible $1.2 million that Jones can earn in incentives. The terms for said incentives have not been released.

$2 million is a little more than I thought Jones would get in salary, but not by much; I assumed he’d get about $1.5MM, so I wasn’t too far off. Still, that’s a fine price for Jones, who can play all three outfield spots–though he’s better at the corners at this point–and can hit lefties well. An added bonus is that Jones isn’t completely lost against right handed pitching.

There’s really nothing to dislike about this deal. It’s short term, it’s for small money, and it helps the team on the field immediately. Jones will be used to spell Brett Gardner and/or Curtis Granderson against tough left handers, depending on who needs time off, who’s hitting better against lefties, etc. Welcome to the Bronx, Andruw; we look forward to you donning the pinstripes!

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Taking a Gander at Noesi and Phelps

Posted by Sean P. at 3:02 pm 6 Responses »
Jan 202011

Most of you probably know by now that the closest pitching prospects the Yankees have to the majors are David Phelps and Hector Noesi. No, they’re not projected as top of the rotation starters. Back end of the rotation starters are still valuable though which should be evident if you’ve checked out the 2011 rotation for the Yankees at this point. So while they don’t have the upside of Banuelos or Betances, I figured we could take a look at two guys who could wind up contributing in 2011.

Both Phelps and Noesi are something close to control specialists. They both throw in the low to mid 90s. Phelps has a good two-seam fastball as well as a curve while Noesi has a good changeup and solid curveball. Both pitchers throw sliders but neither does with much success.

For most of his career, Phelps managed to fly under the radar. Drafted in 2008 out of Notre Dame, Phelps hit the ground running and has never really slowed down. In 3 minor league seasons across 5 levels Phelps has never posted a FIP higher than 3.41 or walked more than 2.3 batters per 9 innings. He’s been without a major injury, probably because his delivery has always been smooth. He’s been cruising since his professional debut.

Hector Noesi has had a bit of a longer path. Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2005, Noesi missed a good portion of 2007 with Tommy John surgery and a banned substances suspension. After rehabbing in 2008, Noesi found success in 2009 posting a 2.25 FIP across 2 levels and carried that into 2010.

Phelps and Noesi both spent a majority of their 2010 seasons in AA Trenton. While Noesi popped up on a lot of national radars entering the season, Phelps was largely ignored. This is pretty understandable since scouts pay more attention to what a pitcher throws and how hard rather than the results in the minors. Still though, the 2010 numbers were pretty rosy for both Phelps and Noesi. I used Baseball America’s list of their top Eastern League prospects to highlight just how well they did. If you’re under the impression I’m comparing either of their potentials to the likes of Kyle Drabek or Zach Britton, please work on your reading comprehension and/or kill yourself.

Click to enlarge the chart.

David Phelps was not included in this list but I added him in here anyhow. The list is sorted by tRA+, which is adjusted for park, defense and league adjusted like OPS+ or ERA+. Anything over 100 is above average and anything under 100 is below average. All the pitchers on this list had at least 50 IP in the Eastern league which is a small sample, but it’s the minors, guys move around a bit.  Obviously Phelps benefited from a pretty good BABIP but these results aren’t wildly divergent from his career numbers. Trenton is a pretty good pitchers park, even for the friendly Eastern League and that’s probably a big part of the difference between the FIPs and tRAs for Brackman, Phelps and Noesi. Another thing to observe is Phelps low HR/9. He does have that nice two-seam fastball to keep the ball on the ground but his GB% was actually down from last year and he had a fluky low HR/BIA rate (Home runs per ball in air). Hector Noesi on the other hand has always been a fly ball pitcher (fun times ahead in New Yankee Stadium!) and his batted ball distribution isn’t very different from his career rates.

Phelps and Noesi obviously benefited from their control quite a bit in 2010 and the results were nice. However in the big picture, this doesn’t mean very much. Noesi and Phelps don’t have the upside of these other prospects (for the 6,000th time). Back end of the rotation starters are pretty valuable though and if thinking of Sergio Mitre taking the mound in the bottom of the first makes you cry at night, well these are your in house alternatives. I’m sure both will be looked at pretty closely in spring training. Noesi and Phelps both saw some time in AAA last year but it would probably behoove them to return there in order to keep working. Minor league results are nice but will good fastball command and soft secondary offerings cut it in the AL East? Probably not. Hopefully both pitchers will continue to improve and we’ll be seeing them in the Bronx sometime soon.

For a full review, check out these links:

Hector Noesi- PendingPinstripes, TYU, River Ave Blues, Fangraphs

David Phelps- River Ave Blues, TYU, Fangraphs

What if the new CBA allowed teams to trade draft picks?

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Jan 202011

I never understood why MLB prohibits teams from trading their draft picks. Luckily, it is one of the changes frequently discussed when reporters mention things under consideration for the new CBA. On a baseball level, it makes sense. Rebuilding teams can get draft picks for their players at the trade deadline, and other teams can trade up in order to land a certain player. But the question that interests me more is would the Yankees benefit? The Yankees are perennial buyers at the trade deadline, and will almost always draft very low in the 1st round on draft day. On the other hand, they also spend more on above-slot signings than other teams, so they might be willing to trade away their top draft pick and still sign Mason Williams when all is said and done.

I think at the trade deadline, the ability to trade draft picks will on net hurt the Yankees. There are a lot of contendingish teams out there that have really crappy farm systems right now – the Cubs, the Dodgers, the Brewers, the Mets, the Tigers, and the White Sox all come to mind off the top of my head. Right now, they don’t really have the ability to compete with teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and others who have real assets to trade away for another team’s assets. However, draft picks are much more useful to the teams with good scouting departments rather than those teams, so they will hold value, and the Yankees will face more competition when bidding for services. Prices for trades will rise due to basic supply and demand dynamics.

On the other hand, the Yankees could really benefit from being able to trade up. They tend to have a lot of guys sitting around who can play MLB baseball but can’t really play on a championship-caliber team. Many of these come from mid-round picks which could be great fodder to trade up with. Imagine – the Yankees really like a player who they don’t think will be around at the end of the 2nd round, so they offer Pittsburgh their 2nd, 3rd, and 5th round picks in exchange for Pittsburgh’s 2nd round pick. This logic could even extend into the 1st round – the Yankees give up volume in return for a superstar-quality prospect. Their budget allows them to do so, as they can fill roster spots with free agents that other teams can’t afford to. Basically, the Yankees would draft fewer prospects, but in higher slots. I think it would be a wise strategy. They can spend money on signability guys in the later rounds still.

I could also foresee a situation, if compensation picks mostly remain the same, where the Yankees are net buyers of draft picks. Look at Tampa Bay this year – they hold something like 11 or 12 of the first 100 picks. They probably don’t have the budget to make that worthwhile. I could foresee the Yankees (if Tampa wasn’t a division rival) leveraging their budget to trade already-signed prospects to the poor team with a lot of draft picks for a fairly well reduced price.

But that’s just my speculation. Does anyone else have any suggestions on whether or not trading draft picks would be good or bad for the Yankees?

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Musing About The Bench

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Jan 202011

The Yankees are on the cusp of signing veteran outfielder Andruw Jones to be the team’s first OF off of the bench. They signed Russell Martin to be the starting catcher for now, with Francisco Cervelli as the back up, and Jesus Montero on the way up. Jorge Posada will be the primary DH and could probably catch every once in a while. The team will also (likely) have Ramiro Pena and Eduardo Nunez to man the extra infield spots. Just so we can see it lined up:

OF–Andruw Jones
C–Francisco Cervelli
IF–Eduardo Nunez
IF–Ramiro Pena

Having two back up infielders may seem excessive, but the way the Yankees’ OF will be structured, I think it’s okay. All three starters are good enough both offensively and defensively that they won’t need many days off. Jones can spell one of Curtis Granderson or Brett Gardner against tough lefties and is also a balanced enough player that he wouldn’t need a replacement fielder after batting for one of those guys. The outfield is also, generally, younger than the infielders. Those guys–especially the guys on the left side–will need more days off for regular rest than Gradnerson, Gardner, or Nick Swisher will.

The big thing Joe Girardi will need to avoid is having the three weaker backups–Cervelli, Nunez, and Pena–in the lineup all at the same time. I’m sure at some point this will happen, likely because of late inning defensive replacement (LIDR) moves. I doubt that Girardi will ever put all three of them into the starting lineup in a game that matters.

The catching rotation will depend on two things: How Russell Martin and Jesus Montero start the season. For arbitration/free agency reasons, I’m sure the Yankees will look to keep Montero in Scranton-Wilkes Barre for at least the first month or two of the season. If Martin falters, though, and Montero mashes, we could see the Montero Era start sooner rather than later. That would do one of two things: send Francisco Cervelli back to the minor leagues or mean the end of Russell Martin as a Yankee.

Where we could see some interesting maneuvering is with Jorge Posada. Obviously, he can catch. He won’t be doing it much considering his spot as a full time DH, but he can do it. Perhaps some rest will do him well when he does get a chance to catch. Posada could also be called upon to play first when Mark Teixeira needs a day off, though I imagine that duty would fall to Nick Swisher first, with Andruw Jones taking RF for the day.

Aside from the eventual call up of Jesus Montero, the performance of Brandon Laird could also shape the bench as the season moves along. Laird’s been a third basemen for his entire minor league career, but played outfield in the Arizona Fall League this past season. If he can keep up the bat that’s advanced him through the minors, while playing non-statue defense at third and in the outfield in early 2011, we could see him swapped out for one of Pena or Nunez. Greg Golson could also make a play as an LIDR and we could easily see Colin Curtis get some playing time, too.

The Yankee bench may not be sparkling, but what team has a sparkling bench? No matter what, the bench in the Bronx will feature either young or cheap parts that will not be heard to replace. This, like the bullpen-building strategy, is one that has a lot of advantages, especially for a team like the Yankees.

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Cash-Joba's in the bullpen

Posted by Steve S. at 7:00 am 13 Responses »
Jan 202011

The standard 'Joba looking beaten' pic for these posts

Many of us were holding out hope that the Yanks would at least consider letting Joba battle for battle for one of the open rotation spots in spring training, but apparently that’s not the case. Brian Cashman addressed this during the Q&A of yesterday’s Rafael Soriano press conference. Andrew Marchand of ESPN-NY has the report:

GM Brian Cashman and manager Joe Girardi stood united that Joba Chamberlain will be in the bullpen.

Even though Chamberlain’s career starting numbers are better than either Ivan Nova or Sergio Mitre, the Yankees say they will not consider making Chamberlain a starter.

“He’s in the bullpen,” Cashman said.

Chamberlain, barring injuries to Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera, will pitch in the fifth, sixth and seventh inning. Chamberlain has gone from season setup savior in 2007 to the Joba Rules back to the eighth inning and now to who knows what. His stock at 25 is at an all-time low and it doesn’t appear he is going to be a vital cog in the near future for the Yankees.

One thing is certainly true if Cashman and Girardi stick to their word, he will never start again for the Yankees.

Once upon a time back in 2008, we all debated the merits of Joba the future Closer vs Joba the mid level starter (Joba the ace-level starter was never debatable). Now, we have no idea who the 4th and 5th starter is, and still the Yanks would rather use him as a back of the bullpen reliever in the 6th/7th inning rather than get 175 inning and 30+ starts out of him. I discussed this yesterday with Mike Francesa, who as many Yankee fans in the NYC area will know has long been a champion of Joba in the bullpen. When asked where Joba would be more valuable, in the 6th or as a starter, even he said “it’s something I can’t argue anymore”. But the Yanks think this is his best usage and will not even look at him in spring training. They’ve clearly made up their minds on the topic.

I can understand the Yanks being down on Joba. When your manager is in better shape than one of your players is, it’s easy to view the glass as half empty and take a ‘show me’ attitude toward a player. Girardi sets a high standard of excellence for all of his players and one look at Joba and you know he’s not meeting it. From the day Joba was drafted, conditioning was one of the red flags attached to him, as well as the ability to maintain his stuff. He was 300 pounds in his early years in college, and 1. 4 mil will buy you a lot of Twinkees. I’ll be interested to see what kind of shape he shows up in this year, but judging by the past two springs I have little reason to believe this year will be any different. This website get a lot of attention last year when I reported a Billy Eppler quote that the debate was over, but at the time even I didn’t think that was etched in stone. Apparently, it is.

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