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Yankees Avoid Arbitration With Trio Of Pitchers

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 3 Responses »
Jan 182011

Jon Heyman reports that the Yankees were able to come to an agreement with their trio of arbitration-eligible pitchers. Phil Hughes got 2.7 million, Joba Chamberlain received 1.4 million, and Boone Logan scored 1.2 million. Avoiding arbitration hearings tends to be a positive for both sides, as the hearing can often get acrimonious and may impact the relationship between the club and the player. looking at the deals themselves, they each seem fair, although Logan may have gotten a smidge too much for a LOOGY.

It is also interesting to note the gap between the deals given to Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Joba being a reliever likely saved the Yankees between 1.0 and 1.3 million dollars or so. The conspiracy theorist in me believes that now that the Yankees are paying Joba on a reliever scale, they may be more likely to announce that he will be given a chance to earn a rotation slot in Spring Training. While the amount of money at stake here is a relative pittance for the Yankees, they had no reason to announce him as a possible starter before the settlement and possibly cost themselves that money. This is probably wishful thinking, and I am fairly certain Brian Cashman will dispel this notion once he emerges from hiding to discuss the Soriano deal. However, for the time being, I will just cross my fingers and hope that someone in the Yankees organization still believes in Joba the starter.

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Fun With Fictional Trades: Joba for Pelfrey

Posted by Sean P. at 3:00 pm 5 Responses »
Jan 182011

Yes, yes, we know everyone’s trade proposal sucks, but we can still have a bit of fun, no? Is this Russia? This isn’t Russia. IS this Russia?

Pelfrey for Joba: would you do it? I sure wouldn’t but Howard Megdal would:

“In essence, for the Mets, this is betting on the guy with twice Pelfrey’s strikeout rate in a more difficult league. Pretty easy choice for the Mets, a team in need of more upside with an eye on 2012.

In essence, for the Yankees, this is adding a durable ground ball machine to an ultra-thin rotation at the expense of a guy who is pitching the sixth inning for your team. Pretty easy choice for the Yankees, a team in need of more certainty out of the starting rotation to win in 2011”

Let’s break this thing down. Here’s my customized Fangraphs box for each pitcher:

Joba Chamberlain

Mike Pelfrey

From my perspective, Mike Pelfrey is a mid to back end of the rotation starter which likely is all he’ll ever be. He’s never shown the ability to miss bats (5.11 career K/9) and has been an 8 WAR pitcher over 683 innings in his career. Joba has been a 7.4 WAR pitcher in 330 LESS innings. Think about that- it’s more than a full season as a starter and several more as a reliever. Also for a sinkerball pitcher, Pelfrey doesn’t have an exceptional GB%- Chein-Ming Wang has a 60% career GB rate for comparison. Big Mike did pitch well in the first half of 2010 though benefited from low BABIP up until July where the wheels came off. He ran into some dead arm and neck injuries that threw him for a loop.

As for Joba, well, what’s really left to be said? His peripheral stats have always been impressive beyond 2009 and has that 1-2 starting pitcher upside with nasty stuff you can dream about. The Yankees though have not displayed a ton of confidence in his ability to be a productive starter going forward (to put it mildly). As for the fun intangible mess people like to throw around, Mike Pelfrey has had all the same sorts of “mental inconsistency” issues hang over his head. Once upon a time that was called young pitchers adjusting to the big leagues in New York, but I digress.

One other tool I like to use is Statcorner.com’s tERA+ which is adjusted for park, league and defense. It’s scaled just like OPS+ or ERA+ where over 100 is better than league average while under is below average.

YEAR PELFREY CHAMBERLAIN
2007 78 162
2008 107 141
2009 93 93
2010 96 135

As you can see Chamberlain has been a good deal better since 2007.

For the Mets I think this move would be a decent gamble. They’d be betting that Joba ultimately could become an effective starting pitcher and with his upside, he would be a top of the rotation candidate. Losing Mike Pelfrey who has been a durable mid rotation starter for them would hurt. If Joba does turn into that ace you dream about though, the move was certainly worth it. This is no slam dunk though. If we subscribe to the theory that no one knows Joba better than the Yankees do and they’ve already given up on him as a SP, that’s a bad sign for the Mets (and obviously seriously hurts his trade value, but that’s for another post).

On the Yankees side this move would likely be an upgrade over Sergio Mitre, assuming he’s the 5th starter in April. Would he be an upgrade over Ivan Nova? Tough to tell, I’m not sure. Again though, how would Pelfrey’s stuff translate in the AL East? Is that upside, a backend starter on the Yankees, worth trading Joba for especially with the deluge of pitching prospects on the way? Would the Yankees be willing to gamble on another sinkerball pitcher with no strikeout rate to succeed in the AL East?

In my convoluted and slovenly jumbled mind, this doesn’t work for either team. I don’t think the Mets would want to give away 200 innings with a 4 something ERA for a lottery ticket in their current position. I also don’t think the Yankees need to give up very much for a guy who will be stuffed into the backend of their rotation. So in my fantasy land where my opinion matters, I say thank you Mr. Megdal, but no thank you.

What’s everyone else think?

Use Soriano as a Fireman, not the 8th Inning Guy

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 17 Responses »
Jan 182011

I may be against the Rafael Soriano deal, but there’s no doubt that he adds a powerful, dynamic arm to the Yankee bullpen. Soriano is one of the best relief pitchers in the game, and certainly the best relief pitcher in the game not to be closing games for a MLB team. This is important because managers use closers in an inefficient way. For whatever reason, we’ve decided that our best relief pitchers should only pitch the 9th inning (maybe the 8th inning too in a desperate situation), no matter how important the game situations that come before the 9th inning. I’ve always argued that Mariano Rivera should make 90% of his appearances when men are on base in tight games, be it in the 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. This would maximize the leverage you could get out of Mo’s 60-75 innings.

Leverage is a pretty simple concept. You need 27 outs to win a baseball game, but some outs are more likely to turn a win into a loss and vice versa than others. If a gassed starting pitcher walks two batters to start the 7th inning in a 1-0 game, that situation is more dangerous than if the game were 1-0 at the top of the 9th inning, and therefore your best pitcher (probably your closer) should come in at that situation. He won’t get a save, but the team is more likely to win the game. Unfortunately, Mariano Rivera will not come in for that situation. He’s in the closer role, limiting his availability for no good reason. I understand that this psychological crutch isn’t going anywhere, but that’s why we have Soriano!

I’m afraid that Joe Girardi will fall into Joe Torre’s setup man trap. Every year, Torre would designate his 8th inning guy. That guy would be a closer, but for the 8th inning instead of the 9th inning. Instead of maximizing his 60-75 innings by putting his second best relief pitcher into all sorts of crazy situations, he relied upon him to pitch the same inning every day, coming in most often with the bases empty and a lead. The Yankees could get so much more out of Rafael Soriano by using him as an old school fireman – he’s available in any situation, in any inning, at any time. I’d propose these guidelines for his use:

  1. In a close game, Soriano comes into innings 5-7 in any situation with the starter out (or gassed) with less than 2 outs, a runner on second or third base and a right-hander coming up to the plate.
  2. If no situation presents itself by the 8th inning, Soriano pitches the 8th inning.
  3. Against top lefty hitters with runners on base in a close game, Feliciano or Logan relieve Soriano. He stays with no runners on base and against most lefty hitters.

The downside here is that it will probably result in fewer innings (but more appearances) for Soriano over the course of the season. He will actually pitch fewer innings than someone like David Robertson or Joba Chamberlain, who will pitch full innings more often. However, their innings will be less leveraged than Soriano’s innings. Logan and Feliciano will both be leveraged too, coming in mostly to relieve Robertson and Joba (but if they’re not yet used, Soriano too sometimes), and will also pitch fewer innings. The whole group really is quite solid, so even if Soriano is burned in the 6th inning in an important situation, Robertson or Joba or whomever should be able to do a pretty good job in the 8th inning anyway. And if Soriano is up for it, he can always pitch the end of the 7th inning into the 8th, should the situation call for it.

Its really a pretty simple plan: use Soriano in the first really important situation in a close game instead of as a Torre-era setup man in the 8th inning only. This is how the Yankees can leverage a strong bullpen to make up for weak starting pitching. If they use Soriano the wrong way, they’re going to do a very good job taking a lead that they had at the beginning of the 8th inning and transferring it into a win. If they do it the way I am arguing for, they will do a much better job of taking a lead in the 6th inning and holding on for a win. That’s really what shortening a game is about. Please Girardi, use Soriano the smart way. You’re paying too much on a deal too lopsided not to.

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Discussion: A Huge What If

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 7 Responses »
Jan 182011

Once upon a time, there was a pitching prospect in the Yankee’s minor league system. In six different seasons, he started 68 games out of the 102 that he pitched, all of them starts after his first pro season. In those 430.1 innings, he had a 3.03 ERA, 1.025 WHIP, 7.95 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, and a 3.92 K/BB.

The Yankees got nothing but good results from this guy. He clearly had great numbers as a starter and had a lot of potential. This guy never made it as a starter, though. He started just ten games for the Bombers and the results weren’t pretty: A 5.94 ERA. A 1.90 K/BB. A 1.680 WHIP. An .852 OPS against. After those poor ten starts, he never got a chance to start for the Yankees again.

(If you didn’t get it after that paragraph, I’m talking about Mariano Rivera)

What if the Yankees had displayed a little more patience with Rivera than they did? What if they didn’t move him to the bullpen for 1996 and beyond? Given the way we look at pitchers today, I think most of us would’ve said that Rivera should’ve at least been given the chance to fail (more) as a starter. If he was coming up today, wouldn’t we at least want him to get a full season as a starter before casting him off to the bullpen? Wouldn’t we say he just needs time to develop a third pitch, like a curveball or change up?

Thankfully, for all parties involved, the move turned out for the best. Rivera has gone on to become the game’s best relief pitcher for an inconceivable number of years. He may not have gotten an extended shot at the starting rotation, but he certainly made the best of his opportunity in the bullpen. It’s funny how things turn out, isn’t it?

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